Super Sunday tropical disturbance forms in Yucatan Channel

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:17 PM GMT on February 05, 2012

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OK, this is officially nuts. The first Super Sunday Invest in history formed this morning in the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and Cuba, and is slowly becoming more organized as it moves northeast towards Southwest Florida. The new disturbance, dubbed Invest 90L by NHC late this morning, has a modest but growing area of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Visible satellite imagery shows a pronounced spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, and 90L may be able to close off a surface circulation if it can find 24 more hours of marginally favorable conditions. Radar loops out of La Bajada on the western tip of Cuba show heavy thunderstorms over Western Cuba, but there is no organization of the echoes into low-level spiral bands. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, which is marginal for tropical storm formation. Ocean temperatures in the Yucatan Channel are 26 - 26.5°C (79 - 80°F), which is also marginal. 90L is suffering from ingestion of dry air along its western flanks, courtesy of an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery.


Figure 1. Is this football season or baseball season? The Super Sunday Invest 90L looks more characteristic of something we'd expect to see in May.

Forecast for 90L
Both the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the shear will remain below 25 knots through Monday, so there is some potential for continued development of 90L as it moves northeast towards South Florida. On Monday afternoon or evening, the storm will merge with a cold front and move over South Florida, bringing heavy rains of 1 - 3 inches and sustained winds of 20 - 25 mph. If it develops into a tropical depression or tropical storm, which I put at a 20% chance, the winds and rains will be higher. I doubt 90L has enough time or favorable enough conditions to become a tropical or subtropical depression, especially considering the disturbance's small size. There is a historical precedent for a tropical storm this time of year in this location--the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm that hit Southwest Florida. According to Wikipedia,

The 1952 Groundhog Day Storm was the only Atlantic tropical cyclone on record in the month of February. First observed in the western Caribbean Sea on February 2, it moved rapidly throughout its duration and struck southwestern Florida within 24 hours of forming. In the state, the winds damaged some crops and power lines, but no serious damage was reported.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tazmanian:
90L RIP


...ah...I think you mean "pinhole eye"
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682

WHXX01 KWBC 060027

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0027 UTC MON FEB 6 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120206 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120206 0000 120206 1200 120207 0000 120207 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 22.2N 85.4W 22.7N 85.6W 23.1N 85.4W 23.5N 85.2W

BAMD 22.2N 85.4W 24.3N 82.6W 26.6N 78.4W 28.7N 71.7W

BAMM 22.2N 85.4W 23.2N 84.3W 24.5N 82.6W 26.3N 79.9W

LBAR 22.2N 85.4W 23.5N 83.8W 24.8N 81.3W 25.8N 77.7W

SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 31KTS 26KTS

DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 31KTS 27KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120208 0000 120209 0000 120210 0000 120211 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 24.2N 84.7W 25.4N 83.4W 28.1N 79.8W 32.0N 73.1W

BAMD 29.7N 63.0W 26.2N 52.7W 20.4N 52.4W 15.2N 55.1W

BAMM 28.4N 75.4W 32.5N 60.6W 36.6N 45.7W 42.0N 37.8W

LBAR 26.4N 73.8W 26.5N 66.7W 27.8N 59.7W 29.1N 63.1W

SHIP 15KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

DSHP 16KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 22.2N LONCUR = 85.4W DIRCUR = 30DEG SPDCUR = 5KT

LATM12 = 21.5N LONM12 = 85.9W DIRM12 = 25DEG SPDM12 = 3KT

LATM24 = 20.8N LONM24 = 86.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
OMG...What a game!!!!


Think they will just try for a field goal, or go all the way?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
I didn't realize the Republican National Convention was in Tampa Aug 27-30. Seems like tempting fate.

A nice hurricane-free city like Salt Lake City could have been a good choice.
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Quoting Speeky:


How exactly would this storm destroy the world?


Oh...not this storm. But a February subtropical development...something's gotta be wrong. Next thing you know we're looking at the REAL New York hurricane (not Irene). Let's hope not, but if something happens...I'll take John Cusack's role.
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Quoting trey33:


I will be in Vegas so fine for me! Lol.....

Maybe Ron Paul will win the nomination as a result of flooding???
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Worked for the RNC in 2008 ;)


I will be in Vegas so fine for me! Lol.....

Maybe Ron Paul will win the nomination as a result of flooding??? Lol.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
OMG...What a game!!!!


I know! Well it started off with a safety....:)
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90L RIP
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
I think people are getting the definitions of sub-tropical storm and tropical storm confused.

For example, Sub-Tropical Storms can indeed utilize two competing circulation. This was the case with one system that I know of - Gabrielle.

Eventually, Gabrielle decided to utilize both centers to have a very broad one. In that case also, obviously the winds would be well removed from the core.

Another, is that Sub-Tropical cyclones can develop in 23^C temperatures, which is what 90L is facing. We've seen systems in the past develop in these SST's.

Then there's the dry air. Andrea and most recently Lee had this problem, however being sub-tropical dry air is often usually associated with it.

All and all, while this in my opinion has a 30% chance to development I believe it is due to time before interaction with Florida and eventually out to sea where it may become a Nor'easter, not due to environmental factors, which is highly surprising given that it's early February. Regardless, it would not surprise me to have Alberto before June 1st, and maybe even Beryl.


Since a subtropical storm requires tropical characteristics, it must be accompained by some organized convection (thunderstorm activity) that is channeled back into the circulation center of the low pressure system. In addition, it gets its extratropical characteristics by the temperature gradients (the differing temperature contrasts known as baroclinic cyclogenesis) that also play a significant role in the genesis and intensification of the storm system. This whole process generally occurs when an area of low pressure that is found in the upper levels of the atmosphere is cut off from the prevailing westerly flow of air found above the equator in the subtropical regions and is supported by relatively warm water beneath it. In simpiler terms, these hybrid type storms have a warm cyclonic circulation situated in the lower troposphere (near the surface) and a cold area of low pressure located in the upper troposhere (upper levels).

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OMG...What a game!!!!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
Quoting hurricaneben:
Go Giants!! Oh god...I see we're in for a possible subtropical storm...ON FEBRUARY? Ok maybe the Mayans got a point there...


How exactly would this storm destroy the world?
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90L not looking to good right now...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
Quoting trey33:
Hi all. Haven't logged in for months, and surprise! Was at a regatta in St. Pete today and it was so hot I have a sunburn. So much different weather than last year. In fact I have been joking - sort of - that the hurricane Tampa is due is going to hit the last week of August when the RNC is here. Hmmm......

We could certainly use the rain however, so fingers crossed this system holds together for a bit.


Worked for the RNC in 2008 ;)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
Quoting hurricaneben:
Go Giants!! Oh god...I see we're in for a possible subtropical storm...ON FEBRUARY? Ok maybe the Mayans got a point there...


i think you spelled Patriots wrong. and you mean, GO PATRIOTS!!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Hi all. Haven't logged in for months, and surprise! Was at a regatta in St. Pete today and it was so hot I have a sunburn. So much different weather than last year. In fact I have been joking - sort of - that the hurricane Tampa is due is going to hit the last week of August when the RNC is here. Hmmm......

We could certainly use the rain however, so fingers crossed this system holds together for a bit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Go Giants!! Oh god...I see we're in for a possible subtropical storm...ON FEBRUARY? Ok maybe the Mayans got a point there...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think people are getting the definitions of sub-tropical storm and tropical storm confused.

For example, Sub-Tropical Storms can indeed utilize two competing circulation. This was the case with one system that I know of - Gabrielle.

Eventually, Gabrielle decided to utilize both centers to have a very broad one. In that case also, obviously the winds would be well removed from the core.

Another, is that Sub-Tropical cyclones can develop in 23^C temperatures, which is what 90L is facing. We've seen systems in the past develop in these SST's.

Then there's the dry air. Andrea and most recently Lee had this problem, however being sub-tropical dry air is often usually associated with it.

All and all, while this in my opinion has a 30% chance to development I believe it is due to time before interaction with Florida and eventually out to sea where it may become a Nor'easter, not due to environmental factors, which is highly surprising given that it's early February. Regardless, it would not surprise me to have Alberto before June 1st, and maybe even Beryl.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
Quoting hurricane23:


Getting into cooler sst's now along with increasing westerlies so really just a very small window for development. Regardless looks like a few days of rainy weather around here.


Assuming the low is in the gulf? I have it just off Cancun at the moment.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Rick Astley should perform at the next Super Bowl.


That'd be real awesome.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Getting into cooler sst's now along with increasing westerlies so really just a very small window for development. Regardless looks like a few days of rainy weather around here.


Agree 100%.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
Quoting caneswatch:


Tone it down there sir LOL


lol, BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOGIANTSSTINKPATRIOTSBEST!!!

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
I dont like either team :/


Well then pull for the Patriots!!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
IMO,by looking at the sat pics,it may have peaked in organization on the afternoon hours.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
First evidence of a spiral band forming, I question the lack of organization.



Getting into cooler sst's now along with increasing westerlies so really just a very small window for development. Regardless looks like a few days of rainy weather around here.
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Quoting caneswatch:


The GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG-Men!


Rick Astley should perform at the next Super Bowl.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
I dont like either team :/
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AL902012 - INVEST


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)/Loop

click image for Loop

..Zoom available
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Quoting SPLbeater:


BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO


Tone it down there sir LOL
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Quoting Grothar:
Nice interception.


The GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG-Men!
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First evidence of a spiral band forming, I question the lack of organization.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458


The 1952 Groundhog Day Storm

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Quoting Grothar:
Nice interception.


BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Novel Times we Live in, eh?





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Remember we are dealing with a sheared system here, 20-30kts to the NE meshes well with the satellite appearance of the MLC ahead of the LLC.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
Nice interception.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
SSD just repositioned the low to my location off the coast of Cancun.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
After analyzing the latest observations and wind scatterometer data, I've come to the conclusion that Invest 90L is a rather disorganized system and is very unlikely to become a subtropical storm.

When looking at the wind observations, it's evident that there are two vortexes around a mean center; one just north of the western tip of Cuba and the other just south of the western tip of Cuba. As long as there are competing centers, there will not be true development.

Most striking and noteworthy is the fact that lowest surface pressures exist in the Cancun region, well displaced from the mean circulation center. What this shows is that the pressure center and the wind center are nowhere near aligned and the system lacks real organization.

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Giants got to settle for field goal after ELi got SACKED on third n goal LOL...15-17, patriots still up and about to have possesion
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Good Evening, interesting wx out in the tropics.
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Copy&paste tuy, isj, snj, hav, 20.0n86.0w-20.4n86.0w, 20.4n86.0w-20.8n86.0w, 20.8n86.0w-21.2n86.0w, 21.2n86.0w-21.5n85.9w, 21.5n85.9w-21.8n85.7w, 21.8n85.7w-22.2n85.4w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info.

ATCF 90L
4Feb 12pmGMT _20.0n86.0w _25knots* _1015millibar^D(istur)B(ance)
4Feb 06pmGMT _20.4n86.0w _25knots* _1015millibar^D(istur)B(ance)
5Feb 12amGMT _20.8n86.0w _25knots* _1015millibar^D(istur)B(ance)
5Feb 06amGMT _21.2n86.0w _25knots* _1014millibar^LO(w)
5Feb 12pmGMT _21.5n85.9w _25knots* _1013millibar^LO(w) closed at 1016mb isobar
up to 150naut.miles from center _MSW* up to 80naut.miles from center
5Feb 06pmGMT _21.8n85.7w _25knots* _1012millibar^LO(w) closed at 1015mb isobar
up to 150naut.miles from center _MSW* up to 60naut.miles from center
6Feb 12amGMT _22.2n85.4w _25knots* _1011millibar^LO(w) closed at 1015mb isobar
up to 170naut.miles from center _MSW* up to 60naut.miles from center

* MaximumSustainedWinds
^ MinimumPressure
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New WindSAT show closed just off Cuba i beleive
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
and when hurricane season starts we will be on firefox 13 by june 5th
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i think we could see 15 too 27 name storms this year we could see more or less
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Quoting SPLbeater:


This here my type of blog. tropical, and well constructed!


Thanks!
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Quoting Civicane49:
I just wrote a short blog on Invest 90L.


This here my type of blog. tropical, and well constructed!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

:D


they just had NY punt, and got ball back. J. Pierre-Paul from NY was injured.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Grothar...Think we will get a sub-tropical depression out of 90L?


Yes, I think we are going to get hosed.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
I just wrote a short blog on Invest 90L.
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i think may this year will be vary busy if thing dont turn a round soon


all so what is the high set up this year
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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