Super Sunday tropical disturbance forms in Yucatan Channel

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:17 PM GMT on February 05, 2012

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OK, this is officially nuts. The first Super Sunday Invest in history formed this morning in the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and Cuba, and is slowly becoming more organized as it moves northeast towards Southwest Florida. The new disturbance, dubbed Invest 90L by NHC late this morning, has a modest but growing area of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Visible satellite imagery shows a pronounced spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, and 90L may be able to close off a surface circulation if it can find 24 more hours of marginally favorable conditions. Radar loops out of La Bajada on the western tip of Cuba show heavy thunderstorms over Western Cuba, but there is no organization of the echoes into low-level spiral bands. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, which is marginal for tropical storm formation. Ocean temperatures in the Yucatan Channel are 26 - 26.5°C (79 - 80°F), which is also marginal. 90L is suffering from ingestion of dry air along its western flanks, courtesy of an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery.


Figure 1. Is this football season or baseball season? The Super Sunday Invest 90L looks more characteristic of something we'd expect to see in May.

Forecast for 90L
Both the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the shear will remain below 25 knots through Monday, so there is some potential for continued development of 90L as it moves northeast towards South Florida. On Monday afternoon or evening, the storm will merge with a cold front and move over South Florida, bringing heavy rains of 1 - 3 inches and sustained winds of 20 - 25 mph. If it develops into a tropical depression or tropical storm, which I put at a 20% chance, the winds and rains will be higher. I doubt 90L has enough time or favorable enough conditions to become a tropical or subtropical depression, especially considering the disturbance's small size. There is a historical precedent for a tropical storm this time of year in this location--the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm that hit Southwest Florida. According to Wikipedia,

The 1952 Groundhog Day Storm was the only Atlantic tropical cyclone on record in the month of February. First observed in the western Caribbean Sea on February 2, it moved rapidly throughout its duration and struck southwestern Florida within 24 hours of forming. In the state, the winds damaged some crops and power lines, but no serious damage was reported.

Jeff Masters

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"nothing to see here people, it's dead, now move along."
"it's not that time yet!"
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Here, north of Orlando, we are getting a good downpour right now, which is actually lasting more than a few minutes. This is the first worthwhile rain we have received since September. I hope we get a bunch more.
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And the truth comes out, Knew this invest couldn't take the heat... or the shear for that matter. I rest my case... Buh bye 90L... No real chances for development if he can't survive the DMIN's/and Stronger shear.
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"It's dead, Jim."

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You all mak'in fun of Issac now but we'll see what hurricane season brings.
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RGB

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Quoting TheoJesse:

Funny you should say that. Novelty. I remember a year, I think it was late 70's, I lived in eastern central Alabama. There was only 2 months that we did not have freezing temps. July and August being the two. Biggest snow we had was in May. Just thought I would throw that in.
Jesse


I think that was 78 0r 79 cuz I was Scuba Diving in Fla. @ Morrison Spring and it was Sleeting and Snowing, Mardi Gras day as a matter o fact.
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So the Giants win, Patriots lose.

Eli now gets the lead on older brother Peyton.
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Starting to agree with a portion of skyepony's post from earlier today in that the LLC of 90L gets left behind and merges with the front coming off the TX coast.
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Quoting Patrap:
Looking forward to frost in July..

Funny you should say that. Novelty. I remember a year, I think it was late 70's, I lived in eastern central Alabama. There was only 2 months that we did not have freezing temps. July and August being the two. Biggest snow we had was in May. Just thought I would throw that in.
Jesse
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ok guys if we use the surface map the 18Z & 00Z you can see the low has moved ESE-SE
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12446
Invest? It's February, right (did I miss a few months somewhere)? This some kind of weird Superbowl joke or is the weather going crazy?
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Looking forward to frost in July..
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Quoting Speeky:
Who thinks Invest 90L has a higher chance than 30% to form?
its at 10 percent nothing more no T.C.F.A. at this time may get some thunderstorm activity to build again tomorrow in the daytime heating effect during the afternoon just a rain event for the most part at this time
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Quoting hurricane23:


Not much there pulse...Its really been sheared pretty heavily this evening. Nice moderate/light precip shield heading for us though.


Obviously there is not much there, just defending my position on the location. One look at the shear map and you can see exactly what you see on satellite. LLC off the MX coast with a 20-30kt SWerly sheared MLC up off the Cuba coast.
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Well, the rain is down here... sounds pretty sturdy, too.

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Who thinks Invest 90L has a higher chance than 30% to form?
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night all!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
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Key West
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50 Elevation



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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Latest info, little over an hour old, confirms the low off the Cancun, MX coast.



Not much there pulse...Its really been sheared pretty heavily this evening. Nice moderate/light precip shield heading for us though.
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Latest info, little over an hour old, confirms the low off the Cancun, MX coast.

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Quoting sunlinepr:


Don’t try to fight radiation
Posted by Mochizuki on February 5th, 2012 · No Comments

Sorry for the low voice. I didn’t want to wake up the host family.

Thank you very much for donation.
I’m surprised at receiving them. Probably I can cover the server cost this month.

I saw one of the people donated from Japan, and it’s Chiba.
I strongly recommend you to evacuate if you haven’t yet.

Today, on my radio interview, I was asked what I think about someone who decided to stay in Japan and fight.
Honestly speaking, that’s meaningless. Just get out, and fight.
You have the internet. You can fight anywhere you go.
and if you stay in Japan, you’ll be sick worse and worse. At least radiation is not something to fight.

Now it’s almost 11 months. Some people are used to Geiger counter and think they know everything about radiation. but I think that’s very dangerous.
It takes ages to measure beta ray and geiger counter does not tell you the nuclide.
and the problem is not the “ray”. It’s the particle that you may breathe.

Most importantly, no matter how much you measure, radiation doesn’t decrease.
The concrete fact is, people died in Chernobyl. You will die if you are in Japan.

The summery of today’s news is,
reactor 2 is serious. On Second of February, it was 52 ℃. At 4 PM of Fifth in February, it’s already 71.7 ℃.
Tepco is supposed to give warning to local governments if it goes higher than 80, but you can never trust them.
They analyze it might be because something, maybe some debris changed or moved in the container vessel and the water doesn’t get to the melted fuel anymore. That’s pretty likely.

and now I’m writing the article but in the spent fuel pool of reactor “3″, the temperature is also going up ,so is reactor “5″.
This way, crisis may happen anytime.

Do not trust the government.

Iori Mochizuki


in any large scale event the people are always on a need to know basics and right now we do not need to know

governments are like that
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Eh, he ran the Royal Mint and had 28 people executed. Drawn and Quartered. Brilliant yes. Too enthusiastic for executing people for my taste.


He had them dispatched.
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3.80" at Key West so far.

This is the second wettest February day in Key West records. The wettest was 4.04" on Feb 28, 1954. Key West will probably break that by midnight.
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WOWWWWWWWWWW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(J/K FLAG: ON)
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Quoting Grothar:


What about Isaac Newton? I heard he had his ups and downs.


Eh, he ran the Royal Mint and had 28 people executed. Drawn and Quartered. Brilliant yes. Too enthusiastic for executing people for my taste.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Don’t try to fight radiation
Posted by Mochizuki on February 5th, 2012 · No Comments

Sorry for the low voice. I didn’t want to wake up the host family.

Thank you very much for donation.
I’m surprised at receiving them. Probably I can cover the server cost this month.

I saw one of the people donated from Japan, and it’s Chiba.
I strongly recommend you to evacuate if you haven’t yet.

Today, on my radio interview, I was asked what I think about someone who decided to stay in Japan and fight.
Honestly speaking, that’s meaningless. Just get out, and fight.
You have the internet. You can fight anywhere you go.
and if you stay in Japan, you’ll be sick worse and worse. At least radiation is not something to fight.

Now it’s almost 11 months. Some people are used to Geiger counter and think they know everything about radiation. but I think that’s very dangerous.
It takes ages to measure beta ray and geiger counter does not tell you the nuclide.
and the problem is not the “ray”. It’s the particle that you may breathe.

Most importantly, no matter how much you measure, radiation doesn’t decrease.
The concrete fact is, people died in Chernobyl. You will die if you are in Japan.

The summery of today’s news is,
reactor 2 is serious. On Second of February, it was 52 ℃. At 4 PM of Fifth in February, it’s already 71.7 ℃.
Tepco is supposed to give warning to local governments if it goes higher than 80, but you can never trust them.
They analyze it might be because something, maybe some debris changed or moved in the container vessel and the water doesn’t get to the melted fuel anymore. That’s pretty likely.

and now I’m writing the article but in the spent fuel pool of reactor “3″, the temperature is also going up ,so is reactor “5″.
This way, crisis may happen anytime.

Do not trust the government.

Iori Mochizuki
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Quoting Skyepony:
Invest has certainly helped deal with the lost of such a passionate chaser in such a senseless way. More has come out. Horrific pictures. Couldn't watch that video. Andy left behind a three year old daughter..


Completely senseless and sad. Praying for his family and friends.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


I had forgotten Isaac!

Isaac Asimov and Isaac Hayes were cool too.

Superbowl a good game. Who'd have thought!

Have fun all.


What about Isaac Newton? I heard he had his ups and downs.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Issac will be a nice storm...



I had forgotten Isaac!

Isaac Asimov and Isaac Hayes were cool too.

Superbowl a good game. Who'd have thought!

Have fun all.
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GREAT JOB GIANTS... +10000000000000
too bad Pats
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254. Skyepony (Mod)
Invest has certainly helped deal with the lost of such a passionate chaser in such a senseless way. More has come out. Horrific pictures. Couldn't watch that video. Andy left behind a three year old daughter..
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm only excited for this season to see what becomes of Issac.He will be the most anticapated storm of the year.It'll probally be between late August and early-mid September before we see him make his depute.It better be a roaring one sorta like Irene,Igor,Ike....


Issac will be a nice storm...

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Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm only excited for this season to see what becomes of Issac.He will be the most anticapated storm of the year.It'll probally be between late August and early-mid September before we see him make his depute.It better be a roaring one sorta like Irene,Igor,Ike....


isaac sound weak lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting trey33:


Agreed. Great game!!


I second that.
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NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Congrats to both teams for a great Super Bowl.


Agreed. Great game!!
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GGGGGGGG-MEN!!!!!!
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Congrats to both teams for a great Super Bowl.
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I'm only excited for this season to see what becomes of Issac.He will be the most anticapated storm of the year.It'll probally be between late August and early-mid September before we see him make his depute.It better be a roaring one sorta like Irene,Igor,Ike....
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Quoting hurricane23:


Since a subtropical storm requires tropical characteristics, it must be accompained by some organized convection (thunderstorm activity) that is channeled back into the circulation center of the low pressure system. In addition, it gets its extratropical characteristics by the temperature gradients (the differing temperature contrasts known as baroclinic cyclogenesis) that also play a significant role in the genesis and intensification of the storm system. This whole process generally occurs when an area of low pressure that is found in the upper levels of the atmosphere is cut off from the prevailing westerly flow of air found above the equator in the subtropical regions and is supported by relatively warm water beneath it. In simpiler terms, these hybrid type storms have a warm cyclonic circulation situated in the lower troposphere (near the surface) and a cold area of low pressure located in the upper troposhere (upper levels).



Still, got to admit though that it is truly incredible to have this well organized of a system, something that legitimately has/had a chance to develop into a sub-tropical cyclone in this location in early February.
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This is the play coming up!
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Quoting SPLbeater:


why not go chop down a tree and git ur own wood? them firewood clusters stores sell aint worth nuthin hardly, 1 night and they gone....


A MINUTE LEFT PATRIOTS STILL GOT DE TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!


I know. But I can't chop a tree down in the city - they get mad about that unless you pay them for a permit. And the duraflame (but probably not 8 cases) is cheaper.

Giants. #1
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Guys just becauase we have a potential storm forming in the gulf doesn't mean its the end of the world.Interesting though to be tracking something like this in February.at best it'll be a rain maker.
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Quoting trey33:
Last year this time I was on my 8th CASE of Duraflame firelogs. And I had to hunt for them, most places were sold out.


why not go chop down a tree and git ur own wood? them firewood clusters stores sell aint worth nuthin hardly, 1 night and they gone....


A MINUTE LEFT PATRIOTS STILL GOT DE TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting presslord:


...ah...I think you mean "pinhole eye"



LOL
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Last year this time I was on my 8th CASE of Duraflame firelogs. And I had to hunt for them, most places were sold out.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
90L RIP


...ah...I think you mean "pinhole eye"
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.