Super Sunday tropical disturbance forms in Yucatan Channel
OK, this is officially nuts. The first Super Sunday Invest in history formed this morning in the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and Cuba, and is slowly becoming more organized as it moves northeast towards Southwest Florida. The new disturbance, dubbed Invest 90L by NHC late this morning, has a modest but growing area of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Visible satellite imagery shows a pronounced spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, and 90L may be able to close off a surface circulation if it can find 24 more hours of marginally favorable conditions. Radar loops out of La Bajada on the western tip of Cuba show heavy thunderstorms over Western Cuba, but there is no organization of the echoes into low-level spiral bands. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, which is marginal for tropical storm formation. Ocean temperatures in the Yucatan Channel are 26 - 26.5°C (79 - 80°F), which is also marginal. 90L is suffering from ingestion of dry air along its western flanks, courtesy of an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery.
Figure 1. Is this football season or baseball season? The Super Sunday Invest 90L looks more characteristic of something we'd expect to see in May.
Forecast for 90L
Both the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the shear will remain below 25 knots through Monday, so there is some potential for continued development of 90L as it moves northeast towards South Florida. On Monday afternoon or evening, the storm will merge with a cold front and move over South Florida, bringing heavy rains of 1 - 3 inches and sustained winds of 20 - 25 mph. If it develops into a tropical depression or tropical storm, which I put at a 20% chance, the winds and rains will be higher. I doubt 90L has enough time or favorable enough conditions to become a tropical or subtropical depression, especially considering the disturbance's small size. There is a historical precedent for a tropical storm this time of year in this location--the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm that hit Southwest Florida. According to Wikipedia,
The 1952 Groundhog Day Storm was the only Atlantic tropical cyclone on record in the month of February. First observed in the western Caribbean Sea on February 2, it moved rapidly throughout its duration and struck southwestern Florida within 24 hours of forming. In the state, the winds damaged some crops and power lines, but no serious damage was reported.
Jeff Masters
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Why the future doesn't need us.
Our most powerful 21st-century technologies - robotics, genetic engineering, and nanotech - are threatening to make humans an endangered species.
Rains finally falling in ernest in Key Colony Beach. Key West has seen more so far.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND IS LOCATED NEAR 23N84W. A
1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW TO 25N84W.
WHILE SURFACE CIRCULATION WIND SPEEDS ARE RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO
THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SURFACE LOW...MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN
80W-85W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND
EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
Maybe. Technology just may make humans and endangered species, but right now technology is behind the curve. Humans are far ahead in making humans and endangered species. Technology may catch up to us and beat us to it. Could be a photo finish. ... Hold on to your tickets.
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
9:00 AM FST February 6 2012
=============================
At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 11F (994 hPa) located at 17.1S 179.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 10 knots. Position fair based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation and surface observation
Organization has improved slightly in the past 12 hours. Convection has increased in the last 12 hours. System lies just to the south of an upper ridge and under the influence of an easterly steering. Low to moderate shear over the system. Sea surface temperature is around 27 to 28C.
Most of the global models are not picking this system. Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12U)
5:00 PM EST February 6 2012
=========================================
At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Two (979 hPa) located at 17.1S 158.9E or 1120 km east northeast of Mackay and 1300 km east of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 12 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS
Storm Force Winds
===================
30 NM from the center in northern quadrants
Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in northern quadrants
60 NM from the center in southern quadrants
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 17.3S 161.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 17.8S 164.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 19.8S 169.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 22.6S 171.5E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
Additional Information
========================
Tropical Cyclone center position based on MTSAT visible animation. Position fair.
Intensity based on Dvorak curved band with 1.05 wrap yielding DT4.0. PAT and MET agree.
Banding around the system has improved over the past few hours.
Global models are consistent with an easterly forecast path and further development over the next 48 hours.
Final Tropical Cyclone Bulletin from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center in Brisbane.
Bulletins will be issued by RSMC Nadi at 14:30 PM UTC..
Everyone have a great Monday!
I would be totally freaked out if Tampa gets hit by the "big one" any time between 15 and 30 August this year......
Does this mean the Giants won???
I see we are well on our way to 2012 blogging season.... lol
Have a great Monday!
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON FEB 6 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA NORTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS INTERACTING WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF AN ORGANIZED SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT3 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT23 KNHC...AND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
6.2 @ 35km
5.6 @ 34km
6.8 @ 46km
5.2 @ 490km
Something is going on there. I hope it ends soon.
From Philippines Daily Inquirer
Death toll in strong quake rises to 40
DUMAGUETE CITY, Philippines %u2013 At least 40 persons, including a nine-year-old girl, died in Negros Oriental during the 6.9-magnitude earthquake that hit the province and other areas shortly before noon Monday, local authorities here said.
The quake hit 70 kilometers (44 miles) north of the city of Dumaguete on Negros Island at 11:49 am (0349 GMT) at a depth of 46 kilometers, the US Geological Survey said.
The Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) measured it as 6.9 at a relatively shallow depth of 10 kilometers, centered off the heavily populated central island province of Negros and Cebu.
Meanwhile, the US Geological Survey website placed the epicenter of the earthquake at 46.6 kilometers deep, some 72 kilometers north of Dumaguete City, 74 km west, northwest of Tagbilaran, Bohol and 80 km west, southwest of Cebu City.
The earthquake was the strongest to be ever felt in Negros Oriental, according to several residents here.
Of the latest death count, 29 died in the mountain barangay (village) of Planas during a landslide triggered by the earthquake, Mayor Ernesto Reyes of Guihulngan City said in a phone interview.
Reyes said 10 other persons were also reported to have died due to a landslide at the Guihulngan national road. Earlier, Reyes said that as many as 30 houses were also buried in the landslide.
According to the mayor, about 100 persons were injured and brought for treatment to the Guihulngan District Hospital and neighboring district hospitals.
He expressed fear that there might be more fatalities and injured in other villages. Reyes said their communication with the villages has been cut off.
Negros Oriental Governor Roel Degamo earlier said 9-year-old girl identified as Bernadette Raidan died when a wall collapsed in Tayasan town, Negros Oriental. The Office of Civil Defense administrator Benito Ramos earlier said that Raidan was the first confirmed casualty due to the quake. He added that classes in the girl%u2019s school were reportedly suspended due to aftershocks.
Meanwhile, aside from Raidan, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), in its 5 pm situation report, have confirmed the death toll to still be at seven, including Raidan. The NDRRMC identified other casualties as Anafe Estrabella, a Grade 6 pupil, of Barangay Mompong in Jimalalud, Negros Oriental, who was pinned to death by a collapsed wall of a chapel and Betty Yap Manzano, 62, of Guihulngan, Negros Oriental. Meanwhile, four other casualties remain unidentified, the NDRRMC said
The quake also triggered another landslide in the mountain village of Solongon in La Libertad town, also in Negros Oriental. An unknown number of people were trapped, said La Libertad police chief inspector Eric Arrol Besario.
%u201CWe%u2019re now getting shovels and chain saws to start a rescue because there were people trapped inside. Some of them were yelling for help earlier,%u201D Besario told The Associated Press by phone. Three key bridges in the town suffered cracks and were no longer passable, he said.
A three-story office building also collapsed in La Libertad, but occupants managed to run out.
The quake was felt at Intensity 7 in Dumaguete City, Villahermoso, Negros Oriental; Intensity 6 in La Carlota City and La Castellana, Negros Occidental and Argao, Cebu.
Intensity 5 was felt in: Iloilo City; Roxas City; Dao and Ivisan in Capiz; Ayungon, Negros Oriental; Kanlaon City; Lapu-lapu City; Guimaras; Cebu City; Bacolod City; Sagay City; Tagbilaran City; and Candoni Banalbagan, Negros Occidental.
Intensity 4 was recorded in: Kalibo, Aklan; San Jose de Buenavista, Pandan, Anini-y and Patnungon all in Antique; Sipalay, Negros Occidental, Sta. Barbara, Iloilo; Ormoc City and Dipolog, Phivolcs said.
Intensity 3 was felt in Butuan City, Agusan del Norte; Legaspi City, Albay; Carmen, Cagayan de Oro; Tacloban City; Catbalogan, Samar, St. Bernard, Southern Leyte, Masbate, Masbate; and Cagayan de Oro City.
Intensity 2 was recorded in: Cabid-an, Sorsogon; Boronga, Eastern Samar; and Mambajao, Camuigin. Meanwhile, intensity 1 was felt in Pagadian City, Phivolcs said.
At Intensity 5, the shaking is strong enough to be felt by almost everyone and to awaken a sleeping person and make doors swing open. At Intensity 4, the shaking is strong enough to be felt by most people indoors and rattle dishes, windows and doors.
Ramos said the violent shaking of buildings in the cities of Cebu and San Carlos led to broken windows and cracks on the walls, but no high rises were believed to have sustained major damage.
Ramos said earlier they were still getting damage reports from other affected areas.
While no immediate damage was reported, Silliman University announced the suspension of all classes and offices for Monday afternoon.
Mark Raygan Garcia, director of the Office of Information and Publication, said class suspensions were a precautionary measure that would give university personnel time to inspect all buildings and facilities.
%u201CThis puts premium on the safety and welfare of our students and personnel,%u201D Garcia said.
In Cebu, people and students left the buildings, shopping malls and schools. Classes were suspended in some schools in Cebu City.
Negros Oriental police chief Edward Carranza said the temblor damaged many houses in Guihulngan and he ordered his men to help displaced residents find shelter.
Officials in some areas suspended work and canceled classes. Power and telecommunications were knocked out in several places.
Carranza said police rushed out of his building when the quake struck. %u201CAll my personnel ran out fearing our building would collapse,%u201D he said.
%u201CNow it%u2019s shaking again,%u201D he said as an aftershock hit. %u201CMy keychain is dancing.%u201D
Philippine seismologists and local residents said there was panic but no immediate reports of casualties or major damage.
Philippine seismologists briefly issued a tsunami alert for the central islands. Five bamboo and wooden cottages were washed out from a beach resort in La Libertad by huge waves, but there were no reports of injuries, said police Superintendent Ernesto Tagle. Elsewhere along the coast, people rushed out of schools, malls and offices.
The Hawaii-based Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said there was no danger of a widespread destructive tsunami.
But Phivolcs raised its tsunami warning to the second of a three-stop alert level for coastal areas in Negros, meaning the public is asked to stay away from beaches and %u201Cbe watchful%u201D for any signs of rising tides.
However, level two does not warrant any evacuation.
Ramos said the chances of a tsunami or a tidal wave were very slim because the quake%u2019s epicenter was located on a narrow strait between two islands.
The Philippines sits on the Pacific %u201CRing of Fire%u201D %u2014 a belt around the Pacific Ocean where friction between shifting tectonic plates causes frequent earthquakes and volcanic activity.
And that's what you call "riding the hype train"? Seriously?
Ah, well. It would have been nice to see some of the 1" to 3" forecast for South Florida. As it was, however, my part of town saw just a trace.
Maybe next time... ;-)
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Precipitation
4.34 Actual
0.05 in Average
2.89 in (1872)Record
We only received just over an inch here 20 miles to the east.
Almost 10" just south of Key West.
I think people read into more than they actually read. Dr Masters said 20% I gave it 0%.
Warm winter!
Any tropical area can spit out an invest if the conditions are right. Or, S&%$ happens. lol
Wow...I guess not enough cold air/fronts made their way into the gulf? It won't take as long for those waters to really heat up for The Season.
It most certainly does. lol
morning all.
Here:
Melt season is going to get uuugly if there isn't some positive wobble between now and March.
Starting with 250K less extent isn't going to be a good thing in terms of positive albedo feedback.
There can be a lot of fluctuation in these curves, so maybe it doesn't mean anything, or maybe it's a harbinger of a bad melt season.
The trend in the past has been that the record low mininum deviates from the average minimum by a factor of 2.5 times as much as the record low maximum deviated from the average maximum.
So for example, if 2012 ends up breaking the record low maximum by say, 200k, then it should be possible for breaking the record low minimum by a margin of as much as 500k.
Some parts of the ice aren't that far from last year's september minimums!
Posted on February 6, 2012
February 6, 2012 – INDONESIA - A slight increase in activity of Semeru volcano’s activity has been observed by the Indonesian Geological Survey in recent weeks and its alert level was raised to 3 (out of 4, watch) on 3 February 2012, after it had been on level 2 since 16 July 2009. Only small to moderate eruptions had been occurring over most of the past year. Between 29 December and 15 January, 8 explosions were counted which produced ash clouds up to 600 m high. One explosion threw incandescent bombs to a distance of 300 m from the Jonggring Seloko crater. During 15-29 January, only weak explosions were recorded and a small steam and ash plume rising 25-50 m was observed. Between 30 and 31 January, 5 explosions were recorded. They produced incandescent fallout in up to 400 m distance. On 2 February at 07:47 local time, a stronger explosion produced incandescent bombs that reached 750 m distance and caused a small avalanche of blocks rolling down a distance of up to 2.5 km. The heightened activity triggered the raise in alert level the following day. At its present status level of 3, PVMBG recommends to stay away at least 4 km from the summit on the SE side of the volcano and climbers are advised not to approach the Jonggring Seloko crater less than 1 km. As of 6 February, no significant changes to its activity have been reported by our correspondent on location. –Volcano Discovery
Posted in Earth Changes, Earth Watch, Earthquake Omens?, High-risk potential hazard zone, Potential Earthchange hotspot, Seismic tremors, Volcano Watch | Leave a comment
53 dead in 6.7 earthquake that leaves the Philippines reeling, as region hit by 6.0 aftershock
Posted on February 6, 2012
February 6, 2012 – PHILIPPINES – Filipino officials say a strong earthquake has rocked the central Philippines, killing at least 53 people and causing widespread damage and power outages. The U.S. Geological Survey says the 6.8-magnitude quake struck late Monday morning at a depth of 20 kilometers. The quake was centered in a narrow strait just off Negros Island. Authorities say a landslide killed 29 people, others were killed in buildings and homes that collapsed on Negros, including the seaside town of La Libertad. Dozens of people are missing. Numerous aftershocks continued to shake the island hours after the quake. Officials say there is no concern of a tsunami, although some coastal towns nearby were hit by large waves. –VOA
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