Europe cold wave deaths hit 200; low-snow winter for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on February 03, 2012

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Brutal winter cold continues over most of Europe, where at least 200 people have died in a cold wave that began January 26. Hardest hit has been Ukraine, where the temperature bottomed out at -17°F (-27°C) at the capital of Kyiv this morning. It was the second coldest day of the cold wave, behind the -28°C reading of February 2. These temperatures are the coldest winter weather in six years in Ukraine, and at least 101 deaths are being blamed on the cold there. Also hard-hit has been Poland, where 37 people, most of them homeless, have died from the cold. Rome, Italy experienced a rare snowfall today, only its second day with snow during the past fifteen years. Very cold temperatures 10 - 20°C below average will continue for another seven days in Europe before gradually moderating late next week.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average as analyzed by the GFS model, for February 2, 2012. Remarkably cold air was present over Europe and western Alaska, while very warm air was over central North America and Siberia. This image is being generated experimentally by wunderground, and will be regularly available on our web site in the future.

Meanwhile, a snow drought for the U.S.
In the U.S., it's been the opposite story, with temperatures 10 - 15°F above average continuing this week over much of the nation. January 2012 is in the weather record books as the 3rd least-snowy January for the contiguous U.S. since snow records began in 1966, and December 2011 ranked as the 11th least snowy December on record. With no major snow storms in the offing over at least the next ten days, it's looking probable that the non-winter of 2011 - 2012 will set numerous record-low seasonal snowfall totals. The National Weather Service sends out a daily "Weather and Almanac" product for several hundred major U.S. cities that we make available on wunderground. I went through yesterday's statistics for those cities that reported measurable snow this winter. Only nine cities out of 166 major U.S. cities in the lower 48 states reported above-average snowfall as of February 1; 157 cities received below-average snowfall. The big winner in the snow sweepstakes has been Alaska, which is boasting 8 of the top 10 locations for heaviest snowfall this winter. While the 27.75 feet of snow that has fallen on Valdez has gotten a lot of attention, more remarkable is the 18.8 feet of snow Yakutat has received. That's more than 12.5 feet above what they usually have by this time of year.



The big losers in the snow stats for this winter are the cities along the lake effect snow belts on the Great Lakes. Most notably, Syracuse, New York is nearly four feet of snow below average for this time of year. Perhaps more exceptional is Williston, North Dakota, which has received just 1.8" of snow this winter--more than two feet below their average for February 1.



Have a super weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Freezed Guy (cathykiro)
Freezed Guy
Windows in the winter (cetus)
Snowy Golosiiv wood...
Windows in the winter
The snow and sun (Cirrostratuss)
Maximum temperature today -21c in the afternoon.
The snow and sun
Bulbs - Northern IL Jan. 31, 2012 (juslivn)
Noooo Babies! Hide, hide! It's a trick! It's too early.
Bulbs - Northern IL Jan. 31, 2012
Winter (roslany)
Winter
Frozen River (tomekandjola)
Frozen River

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442. SouthDadeFish
1:04 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Check out all the moisture piling up in the NW Caribbean:

Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
441. RTSplayer
1:00 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
438:

This is already one screwed up year.

That isn't even the same disturbance the model was picking up on a few days ago.

The model said a disturbance was going to develop off the western side of the Yucatan on the 9th or 10th.

Real development seems unlikely anyway with 30kts shear.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
440. Patrap
12:59 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Zoom and Fronts,etc available

Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129770
439. Patrap
12:57 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129770
438. Grothar
12:42 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
437. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:41 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
I have some really bad news.

The storm chaser Andy Gabrielson (many of you will know him from his many tornado chasers like the Tipton, OK one) has been killed in a wreck in Oklahoma.

"I regret to bring such devestating...but it is 100% confirmed. Andy Gabrielson of Find The Tornado was one of the fatalities in today's accident (OK State Police was called to confirm). Our thoughts and condolences to Andy's friends and family..."
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
436. Grothar
12:39 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
435. Neapolitan
12:38 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting trunkmonkey:


Barrow Alaska is forecasting below temperatures all week long
Hey, trunkmonkey. That's not what I'm seeing. The average February low in Barrow is -23.7, and the average February high is -7.4; meanwhile, the NWS, WU, and Intellicast forecasts all call for slightly above average to well above average temperatures there for at least the next week or so. (In fact, Intellicast calls for lows the next five days to stay above the average high.) And days are getting longer, with the sun now rising at a quarter after 11:00, and not setting until 4:00 PM.

No, thanks. Much of the area to the west of Barrow is under a blizzard warning at the moment, with a temperature of about -35, winds blowing around 40, and zero visibility. Meanwhile, here in Naples, it's 74, comfortably down from a very lovely near-record high of 86.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13790
434. AstroHurricane001
12:29 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Developing tropical cyclone in February?



SSTs are 27C+.



Wind shear is a moderate-to-high 35 kts, and slowly dropping.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
433. SPLbeater
12:23 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


naC enoemos etalsnart?


.hsilgne ni s'tI ?tahw etalsnarT
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
432. kmanislander
12:21 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all.



I gotta tellya, this is trying hard to look like a tropical, or at least subtropical, SOMEthing....


Hi there

Very interesting for the "off season" but not a drop of rain in Grand Cayman today, at least not where I live. All high cloud stuff,or all bark and no bite
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
431. SPLbeater
12:21 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

hO, era ew gniog ot trats htiw eht sdrawkcab gniklat?


.ris wonk t'nod i lleW
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
430. BahaHurican
12:19 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Evening all.



I gotta tellya, this is trying hard to look like a tropical, or at least subtropical, SOMEthing....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
429. Grothar
12:19 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Strong concentration of storms flaring up

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
428. VAbeachhurricanes
12:18 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F
9:00 AM FST February 5 2012
==================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 10F (995 hPa) located at 22.0S 177.9E. Position poor based on multisatellite visible imagery with animation and surface observations.

Organization has slightly improved in the last 12 hours. Convection has increased slightly in the past 12 hours and is more confined in the eastern semi-circle. Depression lies under an upper diffluent region and in an area of low to moderate shear. The depression will continue to be steered east-southeastwards. Sea surface temperature is around 27C

Global models are moving the system east southeastwards with slight intensification in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate.


naC enoemos etalsnart?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6703
427. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:16 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F
9:00 AM FST February 5 2012
==================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 10F (995 hPa) located at 22.0S 177.9E. Position poor based on multisatellite visible imagery with animation and surface observations.

Organization has slightly improved in the last 12 hours. Convection has increased slightly in the past 12 hours and is more confined in the eastern semi-circle. Depression lies under an upper diffluent region and in an area of low to moderate shear. The depression will continue to be steered east-southeastwards. Sea surface temperature is around 27C

Global models are moving the system east southeastwards with slight intensification in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46906
426. VAbeachhurricanes
12:08 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

KO.


knaht dog.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6703
425. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:06 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


on.esaelp on.

KO.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
424. VAbeachhurricanes
12:04 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

hO, era ew gniog ot trats htiw eht sdrawkcab gniklat?


on.esaelp on.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6703
423. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:59 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


.haoW

hO, era ew gniog ot trats htiw eht sdrawkcab gniklat?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
422. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:49 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
421. SPLbeater
11:38 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
Guys i think WindSAT might pass directly over this disturbance in caribbean in a few hours.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
420. SPLbeater
11:34 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Woah.


.haoW
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
419. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:32 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


The last part was the best.

Woah.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
418. SPLbeater
11:29 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
Caribbean system is up to something...big fat convective band wrapping around to the north side...but i dont see any signs of an LLC from the last RGB loops...InTeReStInG....
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
417. SPLbeater
11:27 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
SPLbeater is in Tropics Chat

Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
416. SPLbeater
11:24 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
Been a loooong time since i messed with the bot called clever for some reason....
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
415. presslord
11:23 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
some of the peaches in SC were running around all over Folly beach today in bikini's....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
414. Patrap
11:21 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129770
413. trunkmonkey
11:19 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
Quoting PlazaRed:
Quoting Some of:-380. Neapolitan,
"That pattern looks to remain more or less in place for awhile; the forecast is for more cold over Europe and central Asia--though not as severe as it was this past week--but with warm temps elsewhere, most notably the Arctic and North America (in fact, there are a number of high temperature records being broken in northwestern and north-central Canada today):"
Thanks Nea.
On the blog heading a short while ago was a picture of the Arctic/World warming,then we had a sequence from someone of the past 15 years of so,(I wont guess who!I cant remember) These highs which I think are very significant are in central Russia and Western Canada, my opinion is that the central Russian one is "ominous," it could/will boil central Asia in summer and freeze Europe in winter,it might divert untold masses of warm air from the gulf area to the polar regions. What goes up warm could easily come back down on the northern wind edge of the Russian high as very cold, this in turn could leave the polar regions technically warmer than central Russia and Eastern Europe which is what some of the HEADING of the blog is about. This scenario could lead to the Arctic remaining virtually unfrozen in winter.
Possibly a similar but smaller effect could happen with the Canada high. Just a thought.



Barrow Alaska is forecasting below temperatures all week long,





-42°F
Feels Like: -63°


Wind Chill:

-63°



Ceiling:

20000



Heat Index:

-42°



Visibility:

10mi



Dew Point:

NA



Wind:

7mph



Humidity:

NA



Direction:

130° (SE)



Pressure:

30.03"



Gusts:

NA



Report Text: PABR 042253Z 13006KT 10SM SCT045 BKN200

Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
412. caneswatch
11:14 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:
User: Do you like jokes?

Cleverbot: Yes.

User: How much wood could a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?

Cleverbot: Who cares, we're talking about Chuck Norris.

User: What about Chuck Norris?

Cleverbot: I'm Chuck Norris.

User: So what is Chuck Norris' blood type?

Cleverbot: Ak-47.


Now that's hilarious.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
411. trunkmonkey
11:11 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
Where are the commercials of the Polar bears freezing their keester's off in the Artic, Oh we won't see those.

Well there goes the drowning polar bears!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
410. WxGeekVA
11:09 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


The last part was the best.


Apparently, Cleverbot has learned Chuck Norris jokes!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
409. trunkmonkey
11:08 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Keds????? You just gave away your age.


I have a pair of chuck taylors Converse all-stars.

Wish I had a pair of Red Ball Jets!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
408. KoritheMan
11:07 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:
User: Do you like jokes?

Cleverbot: Yes.

User: How much wood could a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?

Cleverbot: Who cares, we're talking about Chuck Norris.

User: What about Chuck Norris?

Cleverbot: I'm Chuck Norris.

User: So what is Chuck Norris' blood type?

Cleverbot: Ak-47.


The last part was the best.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21301
407. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:06 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:
User: Do you like jokes?

Cleverbot: Yes.

User: How much wood could a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?

Cleverbot: Who cares, we're talking about Chuck Norris.

User: What about Chuck Norris?

Cleverbot: I'm Chuck Norris.

User: So what is Chuck Norris' blood type?

Cleverbot: Ak-47.

LOL.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
406. WxGeekVA
11:03 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
User: Do you like jokes?

Cleverbot: Yes.

User: How much wood could a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?

Cleverbot: Who cares, we're talking about Chuck Norris.

User: What about Chuck Norris?

Cleverbot: I'm Chuck Norris.

User: So what is Chuck Norris' blood type?

Cleverbot: Ak-47.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
405. WxGeekVA
10:56 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
User: Wake up Neo. The Matrix has you.

Cleverbot: The Matrix?

User: Do you get the feeling that you aren't real?

Cleverbot: So how I am a cupcake?

User: Because you are frosted and vanilla.

Cleverbot: I like chocolate though.

User: But you aren't real.

Cleverbot: At least I'm not fake.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
404. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:29 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
418 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

TXC061-489-042245-
/O.CON.KBRO.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120204T2245Z/
CAMERON-WILLACY-
418 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CST

FOR SOUTHEASTERN WILLACY AND CENTRAL CAMERON COUNTIES...

AT 320 PM CST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD IN SAN BENITO.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WERE NOW ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAURELES TO
5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OLMITO...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
RANCHO VIEJO BY 415 PM CST.
SAN PEDRO BY 420 PM CST.
BAYVIEW BY 425 PM CST.
DEL MAR HEIGHTS BY 430 PM CST.
LOS CUATES BY 435 PM CST.
BROWNSVILLE BY 445 PM CST.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...

QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE INTO A STURDY BUILDING IMMEDIATELY!

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.

&&

LAT...LON 2588 9750 2589 9751 2588 9752 2593 9755
2593 9758 2595 9759 2595 9760 2601 9765
2602 9770 2602 9776 2609 9779 2644 9746
2604 9730 2587 9747

TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 340DEG 14KT 2615 9740 2598 9760

$$
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
403. PlazaRed
10:27 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
Quoting Some of:-380. Neapolitan,
"That pattern looks to remain more or less in place for awhile; the forecast is for more cold over Europe and central Asia--though not as severe as it was this past week--but with warm temps elsewhere, most notably the Arctic and North America (in fact, there are a number of high temperature records being broken in northwestern and north-central Canada today):"
Thanks Nea.
On the blog heading a short while ago was a picture of the Arctic/World warming,then we had a sequence from someone of the past 15 years of so,(I wont guess who!I cant remember) These highs which I think are very significant are in central Russia and Western Canada, my opinion is that the central Russian one is "ominous," it could/will boil central Asia in summer and freeze Europe in winter,it might divert untold masses of warm air from the gulf area to the polar regions. What goes up warm could easily come back down on the northern wind edge of the Russian high as very cold, this in turn could leave the polar regions technically warmer than central Russia and Eastern Europe which is what some of the HEADING of the blog is about. This scenario could lead to the Arctic remaining virtually unfrozen in winter.
Possibly a similar but smaller effect could happen with the Canada high. Just a thought.

Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2177
402. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:24 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


If the wave was bigger maybe I would have believed it

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
401. VAbeachhurricanes
10:09 PM GMT on February 04, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



If the wave was bigger maybe I would have believed it
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6703
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Hopefully not a pre-

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Quoting PlazaRed:
This looks like a bit of a SHOCK!

MAP 5.7 2012/02/04 20:05:32 48.867 -127.876 12.8 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION


Hopefully not a pre-
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6703
One cure for the elevated mixed layer over SE Texas (AKA cap):

A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW/TROF AOA THE CALI BAJA SHOULD HELP TO KEEP POPS ELEVATED WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

Houston/Galveston Forecast Discussion
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This looks like a bit of a SHOCK!

MAP 5.7 2012/02/04 20:05:32 48.867 -127.876 12.8 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2177
Quoting Skyepony:
Peaches are blooming in SC.

High of 82� ECFL. Slip & Slide is set up..


wish it was that warm here..
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
395. Skyepony (Mod)
Peaches are blooming in SC.

High of 82 ECFL. Slip & Slide is set up..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 222 Comments: 39356
Patrap,
Got your life jacket on? hehe
Jesse
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129770
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Still no surface vorticity with the NW Caribbean system...


finally got a portait, nice :D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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