Europe cold wave deaths hit 200; low-snow winter for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on February 03, 2012

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Brutal winter cold continues over most of Europe, where at least 200 people have died in a cold wave that began January 26. Hardest hit has been Ukraine, where the temperature bottomed out at -17°F (-27°C) at the capital of Kyiv this morning. It was the second coldest day of the cold wave, behind the -28°C reading of February 2. These temperatures are the coldest winter weather in six years in Ukraine, and at least 101 deaths are being blamed on the cold there. Also hard-hit has been Poland, where 37 people, most of them homeless, have died from the cold. Rome, Italy experienced a rare snowfall today, only its second day with snow during the past fifteen years. Very cold temperatures 10 - 20°C below average will continue for another seven days in Europe before gradually moderating late next week.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average as analyzed by the GFS model, for February 2, 2012. Remarkably cold air was present over Europe and western Alaska, while very warm air was over central North America and Siberia. This image is being generated experimentally by wunderground, and will be regularly available on our web site in the future.

Meanwhile, a snow drought for the U.S.
In the U.S., it's been the opposite story, with temperatures 10 - 15°F above average continuing this week over much of the nation. January 2012 is in the weather record books as the 3rd least-snowy January for the contiguous U.S. since snow records began in 1966, and December 2011 ranked as the 11th least snowy December on record. With no major snow storms in the offing over at least the next ten days, it's looking probable that the non-winter of 2011 - 2012 will set numerous record-low seasonal snowfall totals. The National Weather Service sends out a daily "Weather and Almanac" product for several hundred major U.S. cities that we make available on wunderground. I went through yesterday's statistics for those cities that reported measurable snow this winter. Only nine cities out of 166 major U.S. cities in the lower 48 states reported above-average snowfall as of February 1; 157 cities received below-average snowfall. The big winner in the snow sweepstakes has been Alaska, which is boasting 8 of the top 10 locations for heaviest snowfall this winter. While the 27.75 feet of snow that has fallen on Valdez has gotten a lot of attention, more remarkable is the 18.8 feet of snow Yakutat has received. That's more than 12.5 feet above what they usually have by this time of year.



The big losers in the snow stats for this winter are the cities along the lake effect snow belts on the Great Lakes. Most notably, Syracuse, New York is nearly four feet of snow below average for this time of year. Perhaps more exceptional is Williston, North Dakota, which has received just 1.8" of snow this winter--more than two feet below their average for February 1.



Have a super weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Freezed Guy (cathykiro)
Freezed Guy
Windows in the winter (cetus)
Snowy Golosiiv wood...
Windows in the winter
The snow and sun (Cirrostratuss)
Maximum temperature today -21c in the afternoon.
The snow and sun
Bulbs - Northern IL Jan. 31, 2012 (juslivn)
Noooo Babies! Hide, hide! It's a trick! It's too early.
Bulbs - Northern IL Jan. 31, 2012
Winter (roslany)
Winter
Frozen River (tomekandjola)
Frozen River

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A Warming Globe will do dat TS.

Go Giants!!!




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My first Tropical Update of the Year.....its Freaking February LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
540. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F
0:00 AM FST February 6 2012
====================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAIN IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAIN IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA LAND AREAS.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 10F (991 hPa) located at 23.4S 178.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 15 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Organization has not improved much past 24 hours. Convection increased in past 24 hours but confined to eastern semi-circle. Low level circulation center difficult to locate. Outflow good to north and east but restricted elsewhere. System lies just to the east of an eastward moving upper trough and beneath an upper diffluent region. The system lies under a high sheared environment and is being steered eastwards. Sea surface temperature around 27C.

Most global models have picked up this system and are moving it east-southeastwards with slight intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45739
Quoting Skyepony:
10P JASMINE

Yikes. And it's supposed to get stronger as it approaches central Fiji...

This is one to watch.
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If i had to pick, i'd probably buy the ECMWF solution, but at least the models haven't completely given up on winter... although, i do think that one of them predicted a phantom snowstorm last weekend or the weekend before :/

Albany, NY:
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR REGION WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
THAT WILL APPROACH FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THE
FRONT...HOWEVER DIVERGING SOLUTIONS ARE NOTED BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
GFS INITIALLY STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA AND DEVELOPS A WAVE
ALONG IT. THE ECMWF HOWEVER...HAS THE FRONT CLEANLY SWEEPING THROUGH
WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN BY SATURDAY. SINCE THIS
LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS THE FIRST TO LATCH ONTO THIS SOLUTION WILL
NOT BUY IN JUST YET...BUT A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATING
DECENT QPF SO WILL AT LEAST MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY.

FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...ON SATURDAY THE GFS HAS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
PASSING JUST EAST OF CAPE COD AS IT DEEPENS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF
HAS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THIS TIME SO
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there

Very interesting for the "off season" but not a drop of rain in Grand Cayman today, at least not where I live. All high cloud stuff,or all bark and no bite
Would have thought u would have seen whatever there was to see at ur end...

Looks like whatever's there is lifting to ur west, meaning we r more likely to get some effects from it today. It's been pretty much overcast and still here this a.m., but I expect that'll change...
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<------- is off to install a Drop ceiling at a Honey Baked Ham store.

Super cash for Work on Super Sunday.

Enjoy the GOM/Caribbean Novelty player's



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Quoting RTSplayer:
Got some weak banding on key west radar, but clearly that can't see anywhere near far enough to see the strongest storms in the Yucatan channel.

Actually looks less organized than 12 hours ago, so it's probably got no chance anyway.

Here you go:
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Cuba mosaic radar loop.

Link

Very tropical weather here today.
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Mornin', ever'body...

R we tracking this???



Also, anybody from Cayman been on since yesterday morning?
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531. Skyepony (Mod)
10P JASMINE

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Quoting SPLbeater:
Hey all. up early so i got a few mins 'fore church.

looks like an LLC in construction...


0.o
thanks for this, guess we might get some rain today, 30% chance the weather guy says
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Hey all. up early so i got a few mins 'fore church.

looks like an LLC in construction...


0.o
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4487
Got some weak banding on key west radar, but clearly that can't see anywhere near far enough to see the strongest storms in the Yucatan channel.

Actually looks less organized than 12 hours ago, so it's probably got no chance anyway.
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Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 10:45 pm EST on Sunday 5 February 2012
At 10 pm EST Sunday, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Category 2) with central
pressure 978 hPa was located over the Coral sea near latitude 17.0 south
longitude 154.9 east, which is about 760 km northeast of Mackay and 890 km east
northeast of Townsville.

The cyclone is moving east at about 22 kilometres per hour and should gradually
intensify over the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine is not expected to directly affect the Queensland
coast.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5 am EST.
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Good Morning.

...the heck is this thing?
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Good morning to all. Only 116 days left to June 1rst. Time goes fast and without noticing,we will be immersed into the Atlantic Hurricane season. My condolenses to Andy's family. Rest in peace.
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523. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F
18:00 PM FST February 5 2012
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 10F (992 hPa) located at 22.8S 179.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 12 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation.

Organization has improved in the last 24 hours. Convection increased in past 24 hours but confined to northeast semi-circle. Low level circulation center has become obscured and difficult to locate in past 3 hours. Outflow good to north through east to southeast but restricted elsewhere. System lies along a surface trough and beneath an upper diffluent region. The depression is being steered eastwards by westerly deep layer mean flow into a moderately sheared environment. Sea surface temperature around 28C

Most global models have picked up this system and are moving it east southeastwards with some intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate.

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45739
20 inches of snow in the backyard now. Finally subsided today.
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Just curious, does anyone here have a program called AVN Retriever 1.12?
If you don't you can download it here
This is what AVN Retriever will give you,


It's mainly for Australia but can be customized to any location. The GOM on AVN retriever is Long -99 Lat 15. Lng Wdth and Lat Hght can be set to any number, I have it set at 25 which gives me this.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
This is starting to creep me out.



A magnitude 5.7 earthquake offshore Vancouver Island, and a magnitude 4.3 offshore southern Oregon, all within the span of 31 minutes. Let's look back at the earthquake events I've deemed "significant" in the Cascadia region.

September 1, 2009 - August 31, 2010: 2 earthquakes M6.5 or higher, both offshore northern California.

September 1, 2010 - August 31, 2011: 4 earthquakes, including 2 above M4.5 (both offshore Oregon).

September 1, 2011 - December 31, 2011: 4 earthquakes, including 2 above M4.5 (a M6.4 offshore Vancouver Island, and a ~M5 quake offshore southern Oregon).

January 1, 2012 - February 5 (early morning), 2012: 3 earthquakes, including 2 above M4.5 (one south of Queen Charlotte Islands, another offshore Vancouver Island).

there is a couple of bigger ones than that coming
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UK town search for source of mysterious radio interferences
Posted on February 5, 2012

February 5, 2012 – UNITED KINGDOM – Residents living near an Army barracks say their village green became a mysterious ‘Bermuda Triangle’ after their remote-control car door locks were jammed by radio interference. Motorists in Waterbeach, Cambridgeshire, say the locks on their cars refused to work when they parked at the village green. Modern push-button ignitions were also scuppered by the unknown, eerie interference. Some members of the group had to get lifts home and return with manual overrides. The following day the group, including professional scientists, returned with sophisticated monitoring equipment and found ‘ultra-high frequency bands’ was causing the block. Professional scientist Wojciech Piotrowski said the mystery frequency was likely to have been caused by the military, but admitted a faulty TV or fridge could also be to blame. He said: ‘A strong electrical interference source was radiating radio signals in one of the ultra-high frequency bands at the southern end of the Green. ‘The primary user of this band is the military. However, by Sunday, the problem seemed to have gone. ‘It was really weird but being the radio hams that we are, we sort of knew it was an interference of some kind. The amateur radio group believe wireless devices in nearby homes, such as thermostats, remote light dimmers, switches and energy meters will have been affected. An engineer was today investigating the interference after the group reported their findings to communications watchdog, Ofcom. A spokesperson for the Army, which operates Waterbeach Barracks, said: ‘We are not aware of anything happening at Waterbeach that would have caused anything remotely like that.’ This is the first time an English village has experienced mysterious electronics failures. Last month residents of Kingsclere in Hampshire, near the world-famous Watership Down Hill, were baffled when their heating, showers, doorbells and car remote locks refused to work. They spent much of the festive season without heating and lights after the failure of household systems that rely on digital technology. –Daily Mail
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515. auburn (Mod)
RIP Andy Gabrielson
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26548
I would think that the Texas drought will return over the spring, then lift over the summer as we phase into neutral.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


... is that.. Grothar?

Can't be..


GET OUT OF MY LIVING ROOM!!!!! I told you all I couldn't be photographed.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26548
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is just through April. :\






The temps have been accurate but December and January looked just like that for the precipitation and it has been the complete opposite. Houston is about to get another round of nice rain and the bayous here are pretty high if not bank full at the moment.

We will take all we can for the moment! Hoping this pattern can continue through March and April. Especially if we are in for another summer like the last one.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


... is that.. Grothar?

Can't be..

I would be afraid...very afraid.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32338
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Find it...but when you do, don't tell anybody. :D

I honestly don't know how I missed it the first time.



... is that.. Grothar?

Can't be..
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:



I'm hoping not. We've had around 10 inches of rain in SE TX since December. But we're still holding our breath that the rains will be enough when the heat hits. Hopefully this winter's temps aren't a sign of things to come. Not much of a break on that front. Broke another high temp record yesterday at 80.

This is just through April. :\



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32338
Quoting Ameister12:

You're probably right. They really need a soaker of a tropical storm. Not a troll like Don.



Sigh. That's true too.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 249
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The drought will come back in full-force in a few months.



I'm hoping not. We've had around 10 inches of rain in SE TX since December. But we're still holding our breath that the rains will be enough when the heat hits. Hopefully this winter's temps aren't a sign of things to come. Not much of a break on that front. Broke another high temp record yesterday at 80.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 249
Quoting Ameister12:

You're probably right. They really need a soaker of a tropical storm. Not a troll like Don.


The drought also helped to keep Don suppressed...a strong upper anticyclone supported by the hot air of the drought put northerly shear across Don. When Don neared the Texas coast, it coughed on the dry air & dissipated very rapidly....
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Yeah, but thats still not as creepy as the lamp shades, or the amount of pillows on that couch.

Lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32338
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The drought will come back in full-force in a few months.

You're probably right. They really need a soaker of a tropical storm. Not a troll like Don.
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Quoting Patrap:




I am glad someone posted this...so I am not the only one that's noticed this disturbance in the NW Caribbean.

Its a surface trough that is supported by a cut-off upper trough. A lot of wind shear across the surface trough....but a bit interesting for February....
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Quoting Ameister12:
The Texas drought is still exceptional, but it's shrinking. Southern Texas is getting some nice rain right now, which still desperately needs it.

The drought will come back in full-force in a few months.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32338
Well i gots to go, everyone have a good night i b back tomorrow around 17Z!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4487
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Find it...but when you do, don't tell anybody. :D

I honestly don't know how I missed it the first time.


Woah! That startled me. XD
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nope, it is something creepy.


Yeah, but thats still not as creepy as the lamp shades, or the amount of pillows on that couch.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nope, it is something creepy.


i think i see it.

HOLY MACKEREL I JUST SAW IT!!!!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4487
The Texas drought is still exceptional, but it's shrinking. Some nice rain is falling in Southern Texas, which still desperately needs some.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Is it the fact one lamp has two lamp shades?

Nope, it is something creepy.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32338
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just keep searching.


Is it the fact one lamp has two lamp shades?
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


what are we finding?

Just keep searching.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32338
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Find it...but when you do, don't tell anybody. :D

I honestly don't know how I missed it the first time.



what are we finding?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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