Europe cold wave deaths hit 200; low-snow winter for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on February 03, 2012

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Brutal winter cold continues over most of Europe, where at least 200 people have died in a cold wave that began January 26. Hardest hit has been Ukraine, where the temperature bottomed out at -17°F (-27°C) at the capital of Kyiv this morning. It was the second coldest day of the cold wave, behind the -28°C reading of February 2. These temperatures are the coldest winter weather in six years in Ukraine, and at least 101 deaths are being blamed on the cold there. Also hard-hit has been Poland, where 37 people, most of them homeless, have died from the cold. Rome, Italy experienced a rare snowfall today, only its second day with snow during the past fifteen years. Very cold temperatures 10 - 20°C below average will continue for another seven days in Europe before gradually moderating late next week.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average as analyzed by the GFS model, for February 2, 2012. Remarkably cold air was present over Europe and western Alaska, while very warm air was over central North America and Siberia. This image is being generated experimentally by wunderground, and will be regularly available on our web site in the future.

Meanwhile, a snow drought for the U.S.
In the U.S., it's been the opposite story, with temperatures 10 - 15°F above average continuing this week over much of the nation. January 2012 is in the weather record books as the 3rd least-snowy January for the contiguous U.S. since snow records began in 1966, and December 2011 ranked as the 11th least snowy December on record. With no major snow storms in the offing over at least the next ten days, it's looking probable that the non-winter of 2011 - 2012 will set numerous record-low seasonal snowfall totals. The National Weather Service sends out a daily "Weather and Almanac" product for several hundred major U.S. cities that we make available on wunderground. I went through yesterday's statistics for those cities that reported measurable snow this winter. Only nine cities out of 166 major U.S. cities in the lower 48 states reported above-average snowfall as of February 1; 157 cities received below-average snowfall. The big winner in the snow sweepstakes has been Alaska, which is boasting 8 of the top 10 locations for heaviest snowfall this winter. While the 27.75 feet of snow that has fallen on Valdez has gotten a lot of attention, more remarkable is the 18.8 feet of snow Yakutat has received. That's more than 12.5 feet above what they usually have by this time of year.



The big losers in the snow stats for this winter are the cities along the lake effect snow belts on the Great Lakes. Most notably, Syracuse, New York is nearly four feet of snow below average for this time of year. Perhaps more exceptional is Williston, North Dakota, which has received just 1.8" of snow this winter--more than two feet below their average for February 1.



Have a super weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Freezed Guy (cathykiro)
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Windows in the winter (cetus)
Snowy Golosiiv wood...
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Maximum temperature today -21c in the afternoon.
The snow and sun
Bulbs - Northern IL Jan. 31, 2012 (juslivn)
Noooo Babies! Hide, hide! It's a trick! It's too early.
Bulbs - Northern IL Jan. 31, 2012
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90L in FEB?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


Cuban radar has been posted folks! Hurricane season has started!
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
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Quoting islander101010:
not a stalled out front but this could help central fl.



Nice little top off before the dog days of the dry season would be great and make for healthy lawns come May.
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636. That is correct. Sub-tropical cyclones, which this would be in its nature, can develop in the kind of SST's presented in the GOMEX, which are well above average due to the virtual lack of winter in the SECONUS.
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ok guys give it time they just tagged it lets not worry about forecast yet till 3rd-4th plot and model run when we have a better idea of where it it and where it is heading
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Quoting HRinFM:
Water temp is 65-70 off Ft Myers, can that support a tropical system?


This is from Sean's discussion:

SINCE THE STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN COLDER-THAN-AVERAGE UPPER-AIR TEMPERATURES...THE SST THRESHOLD FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTHENING IS LOWER THAN USUAL...AND SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED.

I'm assuming that the same would apply here, and also, this storm is likely to be subtropical so it doesn't need SSTs above 23C.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Link doesn't work.
That's because the file isn't up yet; I said it's the one we're waiting for...
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Water temp is 65-70 off Ft Myers, can that support a tropical system?
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24hr Wind-Wave Forecast shows a low off NW Cuba.


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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Not that I am aware of, they have not stored and cleaned up the ATCF directory yet.


Thanks for the info.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
AFAIK, the file stays the same year-to-year. The text file we're looking for is:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al9 02012.invest


Link doesn't work.
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Quoting islander101010:
not a stalled out front but this could help central fl.
The NWS doesn't seem to think much of it
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Does 2012 has a new file at atcf?

Link


Not that I am aware of, they have not stored and cleaned up the ATCF directory yet.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Interesting Indeed.

not a stalled out front but this could help central fl.
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850 MB vort is stronger than this morning....



And it is stacked with the 700...



Convergence has been better, and so has divergence...



However, shear is still dropping in the area of 90L.

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Does 2012 has a new file at atcf or is the same as 2011?
AFAIK, the file stays the same year-to-year. The text file we're looking for is:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al9 02012.invest
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Quoting Neapolitan:
It's interesting to note that over the past three weeks, there's been a total net gain of Arctic Sea ice area of just 54,998 square kilometers. By comparison, during the same three-week period last year, there was a net gain in Arctic SIA of 1,006,085 km2, while in 2007 that three-week gain was 944,455 km2. There's talk of a new low maximum record this year, but that remains to be seen; to do that, no larger a net gain than an additional 600,000 km2 or so can be added over the next month, and it's still possible for freezing to go on a ten-day (or more) run. (Last year's ice max was on March 9; in 2007, that happened on February 27.)



European chill moves west and 122 die in Ukraine

By Richard Balmforth

KIEV | Sat Feb 4, 2012 7:11pm GMT

(Reuters) - Bitterly cold weather that has claimed hundreds of lives in eastern Europe swept westwards over the continent Saturday, blanketing Rome's Colosseum with snow for the first time in three decades and disrupting air and rail traffic.

Russian gas exporter Gazprom said it was unable to meet increased European demand as it battles its own deep freeze, and had reduced supplies "for a few days" before returning them to normal levels.

Link
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624. 7544
looks like its going to cross south fla as a ts

very interesting and at 36 hours is this true ?
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
000
WHXX01 KWBC 051619
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1619 UTC SUN FEB 5 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120205 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120205 1200 120206 0000 120206 1200 120207 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 86.0W 22.7N 86.4W 23.0N 86.5W 23.3N 86.4W
BAMD 22.0N 86.0W 24.0N 84.7W 26.3N 82.3W 29.0N 77.5W
BAMM 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.7W 23.7N 84.7W 24.9N 83.0W
LBAR 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.3W 24.2N 83.8W 25.2N 80.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120207 1200 120208 1200 120209 1200 120210 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.8N 86.2W 25.5N 84.5W 28.1N 82.1W 31.9N 76.4W
BAMD 31.3N 68.8W 29.7N 50.6W 25.6N 45.5W 20.8N 45.2W
BAMM 26.7N 80.2W 30.1N 69.6W 32.3N 55.5W 30.6N 48.2W
LBAR 26.1N 77.0W 25.9N 68.9W 26.3N 63.5W 23.5N 60.6W
SHIP 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 86.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 86.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 22.0N LONM24 = 86.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Does 2012 has a new file at atcf?

Link
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You gotta be joking.

SHIPS is putting it exactly TS strength in 24 hours.

Yeah, yeah models suck on intensity anyway, but is that for real?

What's more, those coordinates for 24 hours are still in the Gulf over water.

BAMM and BAMS have it in the Gulf over water in 36 hours.

February, really?
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Interesting Indeed.

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Model runs:

000
WHXX01 KWBC 051619
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1619 UTC SUN FEB 5 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120205 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120205 1200 120206 0000 120206 1200 120207 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 86.0W 22.7N 86.4W 23.0N 86.5W 23.3N 86.4W
BAMD 22.0N 86.0W 24.0N 84.7W 26.3N 82.3W 29.0N 77.5W
BAMM 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.7W 23.7N 84.7W 24.9N 83.0W
LBAR 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.3W 24.2N 83.8W 25.2N 80.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120207 1200 120208 1200 120209 1200 120210 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.8N 86.2W 25.5N 84.5W 28.1N 82.1W 31.9N 76.4W
BAMD 31.3N 68.8W 29.7N 50.6W 25.6N 45.5W 20.8N 45.2W
BAMM 26.7N 80.2W 30.1N 69.6W 32.3N 55.5W 30.6N 48.2W
LBAR 26.1N 77.0W 25.9N 68.9W 26.3N 63.5W 23.5N 60.6W
SHIP 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 86.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 86.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 22.0N LONM24 = 86.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

This is why you should never put all layers on the satellite loop:


LOL!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WHXX01 KWBC 051619
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1619 UTC SUN FEB 5 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120205 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120205 1200 120206 0000 120206 1200 120207 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 86.0W 22.7N 86.4W 23.0N 86.5W 23.3N 86.4W
BAMD 22.0N 86.0W 24.0N 84.7W 26.3N 82.3W 29.0N 77.5W
BAMM 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.7W 23.7N 84.7W 24.9N 83.0W
LBAR 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.3W 24.2N 83.8W 25.2N 80.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120207 1200 120208 1200 120209 1200 120210 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.8N 86.2W 25.5N 84.5W 28.1N 82.1W 31.9N 76.4W
BAMD 31.3N 68.8W 29.7N 50.6W 25.6N 45.5W 20.8N 45.2W
BAMM 26.7N 80.2W 30.1N 69.6W 32.3N 55.5W 30.6N 48.2W
LBAR 26.1N 77.0W 25.9N 68.9W 26.3N 63.5W 23.5N 60.6W
SHIP 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 86.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 86.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 22.0N LONM24 = 86.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Still nothing at atcf site,but the models came out.


WHXX01 KWBC 051619
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1619 UTC SUN FEB 5 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120205 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120205 1200 120206 0000 120206 1200 120207 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 86.0W 22.7N 86.4W 23.0N 86.5W 23.3N 86.4W
BAMD 22.0N 86.0W 24.0N 84.7W 26.3N 82.3W 29.0N 77.5W
BAMM 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.7W 23.7N 84.7W 24.9N 83.0W
LBAR 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.3W 24.2N 83.8W 25.2N 80.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120207 1200 120208 1200 120209 1200 120210 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.8N 86.2W 25.5N 84.5W 28.1N 82.1W 31.9N 76.4W
BAMD 31.3N 68.8W 29.7N 50.6W 25.6N 45.5W 20.8N 45.2W
BAMM 26.7N 80.2W 30.1N 69.6W 32.3N 55.5W 30.6N 48.2W
LBAR 26.1N 77.0W 25.9N 68.9W 26.3N 63.5W 23.5N 60.6W
SHIP 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 86.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 86.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 22.0N LONM24 = 86.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


LOOP

This is why you should never put all layers on the satellite loop:
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
28storms.com confirms that we do have 90L.

That's because I told them, lol.

As I said below, I told the entire weather community. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32710
28storms.com confirms that we do have 90L.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


LOOP
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612. 7544
whoaaaa a feb invest amazing stay tuned will there be speghitti runs coming out where will it head hmmmm ?
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well guys this won't be the fist time we has a FEB TS
thought I kinda wish it could come this way I need some more rain plus can do with some wind it is to dam hot here for a cayman winter or spring and no I don't want it to spite anyone or to do damage I just want a good rain-down and a little wind-sweeping
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610. Skyepony (Mod)
I didn't give this a chance the other night to work down before it crosses FL. & Really the mid-level start of this is going to move on over us. But a bit of surface low has worked down & even more interesting how CMC model want to now combine this with the impulse that comes off TX later in the week. That's the seed the gfs has had us raising a eyebrow over what might happen around 2/9-2/10, since like 300+hrs out. Gfs has toned way down bring this low across in the next few days, then follows with the one from TX, which it now forecasts to be much weaker.

I'm leaning more toward the CMC with the wandering low in the gulf. If 90L hits land (maybe Yucatan) & remnants join the next impulse or if 90L gathers then devourers the next impulse before being forced across FL is uncertain.. I'll give it 5% chance to become a TD or STD.
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Interesting indeed

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You something's up as it feels like late May here in C FL with afternoon seabreeze storms expected today and tomorrow.





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
939 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...RIDGE AXIS FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
EXIST OVER THE AREA TODAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
EASTWARD OVER FLORIDA WITH SKY COVER RANGING FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO THE AFTERNOON. A MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED
WITH A MORE DISTURBED FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INTO LATE DAY AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE 12Z CAPE SOUNDING INDICATES SUFFICIENT CAPE. WILL HOLD
RAIN CHANCES AT 30 PERCENT TODAY AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE
FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
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You know this site is gonna explode if/when the NHC mentions this in a special tropical weather outlook later today. I'll bet that outlook will get copied & pasted on here like 5 or 10 times...LOL
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Wao.

I gotta run, but u betcha I'll be checking in on this as the day progresses....

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Morning All.

Never thought I would see this today.

Invest 90
Wind: 30 MPH — Location: 22.0 86.0W — Movement: N
This area of disturbed weather has the potential for tropical development.
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WU gets their info from the ATCF files, they probably get it before we do. Why else would it update, and on this particular system we've been watching and the only one models have been saying might develop, tagged as an invest if it was a glitch.
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And thus the Hurricane Season ritual begins:
F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5.
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Yeah hurricane season may start early
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Nothing at atcf,is this true?
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deleted : refreshed the previous page and the proper images appeared
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Invest 90L.
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ATCF doesnt have it listed either.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

ATCF/Navy don't have it up yet. Hope it is not a mistake by Wunderground because I've already spread it around the entire weather community. :P


No....you're right...its posted on Wunderground. Maybe Dr. M's got big connections...LOL

I keep refreshing the Navy page in disbelief (and the NHC webpage too)....I am so eager to see it on either of those sights first!

In the very long range....I wouldn't be suprised if the disturbance over Texas streams east...gets cut-off...and becomes Invest 91L. This is how Invest 90L essentially began....
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amazing
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Well...I know I am tracking this. I didn't expect to see more organization like I am this morning.

Dude...if this becomes an Invest....this will be a very very rare occurrence for February. I don't even know if a tropical invest has ever happened in February before.


It is now listed as Invest 90!
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
I just checked the navy page...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

I don't see Invest 90L. Unless my Navy page isn't updating....what other sources show declared invests? I am curious...

ATCF/Navy don't have it up yet. Hope it is not a mistake by Wunderground because I've already spread it around the entire weather community. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32710
579:

Could this be positive feedback from last year's Methane torches?

Bubbles de-stratified the water and made the surface warmer than usual? Maybe?
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"Here it comes again,filling my soul,never wants to let go"
90L is in! Unbelieveable thing - it's only February!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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