Europe cold wave deaths hit 200; low-snow winter for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on February 03, 2012

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Brutal winter cold continues over most of Europe, where at least 200 people have died in a cold wave that began January 26. Hardest hit has been Ukraine, where the temperature bottomed out at -17°F (-27°C) at the capital of Kyiv this morning. It was the second coldest day of the cold wave, behind the -28°C reading of February 2. These temperatures are the coldest winter weather in six years in Ukraine, and at least 101 deaths are being blamed on the cold there. Also hard-hit has been Poland, where 37 people, most of them homeless, have died from the cold. Rome, Italy experienced a rare snowfall today, only its second day with snow during the past fifteen years. Very cold temperatures 10 - 20°C below average will continue for another seven days in Europe before gradually moderating late next week.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average as analyzed by the GFS model, for February 2, 2012. Remarkably cold air was present over Europe and western Alaska, while very warm air was over central North America and Siberia. This image is being generated experimentally by wunderground, and will be regularly available on our web site in the future.

Meanwhile, a snow drought for the U.S.
In the U.S., it's been the opposite story, with temperatures 10 - 15°F above average continuing this week over much of the nation. January 2012 is in the weather record books as the 3rd least-snowy January for the contiguous U.S. since snow records began in 1966, and December 2011 ranked as the 11th least snowy December on record. With no major snow storms in the offing over at least the next ten days, it's looking probable that the non-winter of 2011 - 2012 will set numerous record-low seasonal snowfall totals. The National Weather Service sends out a daily "Weather and Almanac" product for several hundred major U.S. cities that we make available on wunderground. I went through yesterday's statistics for those cities that reported measurable snow this winter. Only nine cities out of 166 major U.S. cities in the lower 48 states reported above-average snowfall as of February 1; 157 cities received below-average snowfall. The big winner in the snow sweepstakes has been Alaska, which is boasting 8 of the top 10 locations for heaviest snowfall this winter. While the 27.75 feet of snow that has fallen on Valdez has gotten a lot of attention, more remarkable is the 18.8 feet of snow Yakutat has received. That's more than 12.5 feet above what they usually have by this time of year.



The big losers in the snow stats for this winter are the cities along the lake effect snow belts on the Great Lakes. Most notably, Syracuse, New York is nearly four feet of snow below average for this time of year. Perhaps more exceptional is Williston, North Dakota, which has received just 1.8" of snow this winter--more than two feet below their average for February 1.



Have a super weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Freezed Guy (cathykiro)
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Windows in the winter (cetus)
Snowy Golosiiv wood...
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Maximum temperature today -21c in the afternoon.
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Bulbs - Northern IL Jan. 31, 2012 (juslivn)
Noooo Babies! Hide, hide! It's a trick! It's too early.
Bulbs - Northern IL Jan. 31, 2012
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it probably won't amount to much...but I'm fascinated by what allowed it to be...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, I do not believe he was expecting an Invest with the potential of Alberto when he wrote that the other day.




thats ture
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Taz it looks open wind don't add up totaly

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, it is low-level, and close to designation I'd say. It's a subtropical cyclone, not tropical.

Oh please, dont get your hopes up believing that its something it's not. it's not near organized even for a sub-tropical system... it needs to show th NHC what it's made of to get anywhere near formation...
No formation for this sytem, i don't believe. Not today at least... 90L can prove me wrong tomorrow.
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Taz it looks open wind don't add up totaly
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687. 7544
levi plz .
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Get that thing off here! Nobody cares about Jasmine! We have a February invest with a good potential of becoming Alberto! :P

LOL
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
I guess everyone has forgotten Jasmine...

Get that thing off here! Nobody cares about Jasmine! We have a February invest with a good potential of becoming Alberto! :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
It feels like August, so it aint a suprise to me that 90L is out there. But lets not forget all the invests and disturbances that formed in a wierd place or time that didnt become a TD or TS. Yet their are some(like Grace in 2009 and TS01 last year in the Mediterranian) that did form, so its very puzzling.


Ahhhh... memories of being on here in the summer.
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I guess everyone has forgotten Jasmine...
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Quoting Tazmanian:


nop

Have a super weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Well, I do not believe he was expecting an Invest with the potential of Alberto when he wrote that the other day.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Comment #666, how fitting. ;P

Thinking that too. :P
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Quoting Tazmanian:


nop

Have a super weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.


betcha this causes a change of plans
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
its a mid level circulation attempting to burrow down toward the surface, it has a "closed" circulation, you could say. But it's not at a point of developing at least for another 24 hours. Don't get too hopeful, i get were all excited that the tropics are alive for the first time in 2012, but its not something to be counting on to develop.

No, it is low-level, and close to designation I'd say. It's a subtropical cyclone, not tropical.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Looks closed on sat.
its a mid level circulation attempting to burrow down toward the surface, it has a "closed" circulation, you could say. But it's not at a point of developing at least for another 24 hours. Don't get too hopeful, i get were all excited that the tropics are alive for the first time in 2012, but its not something to be counting on to develop.
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That's just unreal, a February TS might actually happen.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


History will be made if this happens, wow I still can't believe it.

3rd earliest storm
Not counting Alice or Zeta
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I have a theory on 90L
#1 system relocates into a less sheared environment(to the South near and between 17-20N 84-87W)where it will
#2 develop better then
#3 cold front comes and drags it a bit to the NE then
#4 cold front leaves causing it to meander then
#5 moves N into GOM and weaken then
#6 moves NW and dissipates before hitting Tex or Mex
note I am not putt money on this theory yet so don't make a fool of yourself and complain

other notes on 90L the wind don't really match up with the 1st/current plot so I will wait to see what happens
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Quoting Ameister12:
An invest in February!? Yep, it's definitely gonna be another crazy year. :P


Well...I thought so too....but we have to remind ourselves early activity doesn't always mean an active season ahead. For example 1992 had an early subtropical cyclone...but that season produced a below avg # of storms.

Another "party pooper" is that this won't be the 1st time in February if it happens...we had the groundhog's day tropical storm in Feb 1952.
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Quoting presslord:
I'll bet Grand Master Jeff will have a post up about this before too long....


nop

Have a super weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Alright people, due to this circumstance, IM BACCKKKKK....

90L is not evenly stacked upper divergence-wise or lower convergence-wise, where it should be...
it should be near the Mid-level circulation if it wanted to get organized... its still very disorganized at this time and the limiting factors such as time, pace of development, and it's nature of development(Subtropical, and monsoonal low...)
I'll give it a 20% chance of any kind of development. I've learned from experience the past couple of seasons that the NHC is strict and will only name something if its extremely necessary. 90L won't form, THAT'S RIGHT, Prove me wrong 90L, develop into Alberto... Hit me with your best shot.

Comment #666, how fitting. ;P
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
I think this is very close to STS Alberto!



History will be made if this happens, wow I still can't believe it.
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I'll bet Grand Master Jeff will have a post up about this before too long....
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Quoting Tazmanian:
dos 90L have a close low or open low

I believe it is close to be closed, if it isn't already, based on surface observations in the area.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
Wow, this is just unreal that we are discussing the tropics.... in the beginning of February. We should be talking snow, LOL. Guess La Nina won't allow us to.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
dos 90L have a close low or open low


Looks closed on sat.
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Alright people, due to this circumstance, IM BACCKKKKK....

90L is not evenly stacked upper divergence-wise or lower convergence-wise, where it should be...
it should be near the Mid-level circulation if it wanted to get organized... its still very disorganized at this time and the limiting factors such as time, pace of development, and it's nature of development(Subtropical, and monsoonal low...)
I'll give it a 20% chance of any kind of development. I've learned from experience the past couple of seasons that the NHC is strict and will only name something if its extremely necessary. 90L won't form, THAT'S RIGHT, Prove me wrong 90L, develop into Alberto... Hit me with your best shot.
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dos 90L have a close low or open low
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26127
thunderstorm seasons can be really bad around cent fl good thing the bad stuff is over after a hr.
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90L appears to be NNE at very slowly.
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i wounder if the hurricane huters will fly
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Quoting RTSplayer:
So, is it:

A) A 60+ year event that is on schedule?

B) Global Warming?

C) Satellite era bias, detecting what was missed in the past?

ABC+D,D is "another example of weather craziness present especially since 2010"
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I think this is very close to STS Alberto!

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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
This disturbance would still be noted without satellites. That passage has been a busy shipping route for hundreds of years.

Plus, global warming doesnt make a year or break it. Weve had 8 major hurricanes in 1950 and el ninos and la ninas all over.
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Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
Here is a link to the 1952 Groundhog day tropical storm caused 65 mph winds in S Fl

Link
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Nice little top off before the dog days of the dry season would be great and make for healthy lawns come May.


Hey, PP. You think we'll get some sprinkles from this one?


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26127
Thanks to this nonexistent-winter we could see our first tropical storm in February. If this does become tropical or subtropical, it would be the first storm in February in 60 years!
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
Quoting RTSplayer:
So, is it:

A) A 60+ year event that is on schedule?

B) Global Warming?

C) Satellite era bias, detecting what was missed in the past?
This disturbance would still be noted without satellites. That passage has been a busy shipping route for hundreds of years.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yup. May be "Alberto in FEB" soon.




sweet
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It feels like August, so it aint a suprise to me that 90L is out there. But lets not forget all the invests and disturbances that formed in a wierd place or time that didnt become a TD or TS. Yet their are some(like Grace in 2009 and TS01 last year in the Mediterranian) that did form, so its very puzzling.
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From the Tropical Weather Discussion:

"THIS AREA IS
BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT"
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
So, is it:

A) A 60+ year event that is on schedule?

B) Global Warming?

C) Satellite era bias, detecting what was missed in the past?
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Quoting Ameister12:
An invest in February!? Yep, it's definitely gonna be another crazy year. :P


From a historical point of view, invests in the winter months are common. It's invests that have model support, like this one, that aren't common. Also they generally occur in the months of March-May...
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
Quoting RTSplayer:
You gotta be joking.

SHIPS is putting it exactly TS strength in 24 hours.

Yeah, yeah models suck on intensity anyway, but is that for real?

What's more, those coordinates for 24 hours are still in the Gulf over water.

BAMM and BAMS have it in the Gulf over water in 36 hours.

February, really?


The Groundhogs day tropical storm in February 1952 was similar to this...and hit is south Florida....now I am starting to think this is going to be similar to that storm in some ways...who knows.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
90L in FEB?

Yes Taz.
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An invest in February!? Yep, it's definitely gonna be another crazy year. :P
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
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Quoting Tazmanian:
90L in FEB?

Yup. May be "Alberto in FEB" soon.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
90L in FEB?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.