Europe cold wave deaths hit 200; low-snow winter for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on February 03, 2012

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Brutal winter cold continues over most of Europe, where at least 200 people have died in a cold wave that began January 26. Hardest hit has been Ukraine, where the temperature bottomed out at -17°F (-27°C) at the capital of Kyiv this morning. It was the second coldest day of the cold wave, behind the -28°C reading of February 2. These temperatures are the coldest winter weather in six years in Ukraine, and at least 101 deaths are being blamed on the cold there. Also hard-hit has been Poland, where 37 people, most of them homeless, have died from the cold. Rome, Italy experienced a rare snowfall today, only its second day with snow during the past fifteen years. Very cold temperatures 10 - 20°C below average will continue for another seven days in Europe before gradually moderating late next week.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average as analyzed by the GFS model, for February 2, 2012. Remarkably cold air was present over Europe and western Alaska, while very warm air was over central North America and Siberia. This image is being generated experimentally by wunderground, and will be regularly available on our web site in the future.

Meanwhile, a snow drought for the U.S.
In the U.S., it's been the opposite story, with temperatures 10 - 15°F above average continuing this week over much of the nation. January 2012 is in the weather record books as the 3rd least-snowy January for the contiguous U.S. since snow records began in 1966, and December 2011 ranked as the 11th least snowy December on record. With no major snow storms in the offing over at least the next ten days, it's looking probable that the non-winter of 2011 - 2012 will set numerous record-low seasonal snowfall totals. The National Weather Service sends out a daily "Weather and Almanac" product for several hundred major U.S. cities that we make available on wunderground. I went through yesterday's statistics for those cities that reported measurable snow this winter. Only nine cities out of 166 major U.S. cities in the lower 48 states reported above-average snowfall as of February 1; 157 cities received below-average snowfall. The big winner in the snow sweepstakes has been Alaska, which is boasting 8 of the top 10 locations for heaviest snowfall this winter. While the 27.75 feet of snow that has fallen on Valdez has gotten a lot of attention, more remarkable is the 18.8 feet of snow Yakutat has received. That's more than 12.5 feet above what they usually have by this time of year.



The big losers in the snow stats for this winter are the cities along the lake effect snow belts on the Great Lakes. Most notably, Syracuse, New York is nearly four feet of snow below average for this time of year. Perhaps more exceptional is Williston, North Dakota, which has received just 1.8" of snow this winter--more than two feet below their average for February 1.



Have a super weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Maximum temperature today -21c in the afternoon.
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I have never lurked this long
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting sunlinepr:

Blue sphere The blue spheres are jelly-like but have no smell and are not sticky

27 January 2012 Last updated at 11:15 ET
Link

Bournemouth resident mystified by 'blue sphere shower'

A man in Dorset has been left mystified after tiny blue spheres fell from the sky into his garden.
Steve Hornsby from Bournemouth said the 3cm diameter balls came raining down late on Thursday afternoon during a hail storm.
He found about a dozen of the balls in his garden. He said: "[They're] difficult to pick up, I had to get a spoon and flick them into a jam jar."

The Met Office said the jelly-like substance was "not meteorological".

Mr Hornsby, a former aircraft engineer, said: "The sky went a really dark yellow colour.

"As I walked outside to go to the garage there was an instant hail storm for a few seconds and I thought, 'what's that in the grass'?"
'No smell'
Advertisement

Mr Hornsby said he was keeping the balls in his fridge while he tried to find out what they were

Walking around his garden he found many more blue spheres were scattered across the grass.

He said: "The have an exterior shell with a softer inner but have no smell, aren't sticky and do not melt."

Mr Hornsby said he was keeping the balls in his fridge while he tried to find out what they were.

Josie Pegg, an applied science research assistant at Bournemouth University, speculated that the apparently strange phenomena might be "marine invertebrate eggs".

"These have been implicated in previous 'strange goo' incidents," she said. "I'd have thought it's a little early for spawning but I suppose we've had a very mild winter.

"The transmission of eggs on birds' feet is well documented and I guess if a bird was caught out in a storm this could be the cause."


Wow, blue balls. What next??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:
“the effect on abundance is worse in the Japanese disaster zone.”
Posted by Mochizuki on February 3rd, 2012 · No Comments

Bird numbers plummet around stricken Fukushima plant

Researchers working around Japan’s disabled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant say bird populations there have begun to dwindle, in what may be a chilling harbinger of the impact of radioactive fallout on local life.
In the first major study of the impact of the world’s worst nuclear crisis in 25 years, the researchers, from Japan, the US and Denmark, said their analysis of 14 species of bird common to Fukushima and Chernobyl, the Ukrainian city which suffered a similar nuclear meltdown, showed the effect on abundance is worse in the Japanese disaster zone.
The study, published next week in the journal Environmental Pollution, suggests that its findings demonstrate “an immediate negative consequence of radiation for birds during the main breeding season [of] March [to] July”.

Two of the study’s authors have spent years working in the irradiated 2,850 sq metre zone around the Chernobyl single-reactor plant, which exploded in 1986 and showered much of Europe with caesium, strontium, plutonium and other radioactive toxins. A quarter of a century later, the region is almost devoid of people.
Timothy Mousseau and Anders Pape Moller say their research uncovered major negative effects among the bird population, including reductions in longevity and in male fertility, and birds with smaller brains.
Many species show “dramatically” elevated DNA mutation rates, developmental abnormalities and extinctions, they add, while insect life has been significantly reduced.
Iori Mochizuki


Published: February 3rd, 2012 at 03:49 PM EDT
Breeder: Two-headed salmon born out of 50 eggs — Usually around 1 in 10,000 says Kyoto professor (PHOTO)

Title: Conjoint fish Source: Fukushima Diary Date: February 2nd, 2012


Conjoint larval fish of salmon is found in Fukuchi shi Kyoto

Mr. Miyamoto Tadao (67) received 50 eggs from environmental symposium of Yura river on 1/7/2012. [...]

On 1/29/2012, they found one with 2 heads.

The deformed larval fish is 1.5cm long where other ones are 2 cm. When one of the heads try to go to left, the other one sometimes tries to go to right. It can’t move fast.

Assistant professor Ueno Masahiro from Kyoto university field research center talks, the kind of deformation happens once in thousands or tens of thousand. [...]

Title: Birth family reared in larval survival of salmon wish tough and double-headed “Good luck”
Source: Youtan Shinbun
Date: Jan 31, 2012 SOURCE:Youtan Shinbun

Two head, the tail portion larvae of the salmon one is found.

Are surprised by larvae are breeding in the home (67) Mr. Tadao Miyamoto Oikezaka Fukuchiyama town, “but the salmon are breeding from two years ago, but this is the first time”

Miyamoto-san from the year 2010, participate in the business environment conservation salmon stocking salmon Executive Committee to make a citizen Fukuchiyama Yura, Ayabe hosted by the two cities. [...]

50 receives the eggs on January 7 this year, raising the water tank on top of the shoe box put the front door at home.

I have found the larvae except when the water tank 29, there are two head. [...]

If you try to go head to the left is more of the other hand, such as the right to go to the other direction, there is a swim when you separate, appear to be slow motion compared with other larvae.

It is also possible that genetic, or did this happen at the time of the (cleavage), been made ​​in stimulating some cell division “(61) is Assistant Professor Masahiro Ueno experimental field Fisheries Maizuru Center Field Science Education and Research, Kyoto University.

that are described as “born in probability is a fraction of tens of thousands.  Say about the growth of the future “because As soon as start eating the food on their own, become difficult to eat the food as I also think both sides, there is a possibility they starve to death, long is not likely to live” [...]


Up next:

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
“the effect on abundance is worse in the Japanese disaster zone.”
Posted by Mochizuki on February 3rd, 2012 · No Comments

Bird numbers plummet around stricken Fukushima plant

Researchers working around Japan’s disabled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant say bird populations there have begun to dwindle, in what may be a chilling harbinger of the impact of radioactive fallout on local life.
In the first major study of the impact of the world’s worst nuclear crisis in 25 years, the researchers, from Japan, the US and Denmark, said their analysis of 14 species of bird common to Fukushima and Chernobyl, the Ukrainian city which suffered a similar nuclear meltdown, showed the effect on abundance is worse in the Japanese disaster zone.
The study, published next week in the journal Environmental Pollution, suggests that its findings demonstrate “an immediate negative consequence of radiation for birds during the main breeding season [of] March [to] July”.

Two of the study’s authors have spent years working in the irradiated 2,850 sq metre zone around the Chernobyl single-reactor plant, which exploded in 1986 and showered much of Europe with caesium, strontium, plutonium and other radioactive toxins. A quarter of a century later, the region is almost devoid of people.
Timothy Mousseau and Anders Pape Moller say their research uncovered major negative effects among the bird population, including reductions in longevity and in male fertility, and birds with smaller brains.
Many species show “dramatically” elevated DNA mutation rates, developmental abnormalities and extinctions, they add, while insect life has been significantly reduced.
Iori Mochizuki


Published: February 3rd, 2012 at 03:49 PM EDT
Breeder: Two-headed salmon born out of 50 eggs — Usually around 1 in 10,000 says Kyoto professor (PHOTO)

Title: Conjoint fish Source: Fukushima Diary Date: February 2nd, 2012


Conjoint larval fish of salmon is found in Fukuchi shi Kyoto

Mr. Miyamoto Tadao (67) received 50 eggs from environmental symposium of Yura river on 1/7/2012. [...]

On 1/29/2012, they found one with 2 heads.

The deformed larval fish is 1.5cm long where other ones are 2 cm. When one of the heads try to go to left, the other one sometimes tries to go to right. It can’t move fast.

Assistant professor Ueno Masahiro from Kyoto university field research center talks, the kind of deformation happens once in thousands or tens of thousand. [...]

Title: Birth family reared in larval survival of salmon wish tough and double-headed “Good luck”
Source: Youtan Shinbun
Date: Jan 31, 2012 SOURCE:Youtan Shinbun

Two head, the tail portion larvae of the salmon one is found.

Are surprised by larvae are breeding in the home (67) Mr. Tadao Miyamoto Oikezaka Fukuchiyama town, “but the salmon are breeding from two years ago, but this is the first time”

Miyamoto-san from the year 2010, participate in the business environment conservation salmon stocking salmon Executive Committee to make a citizen Fukuchiyama Yura, Ayabe hosted by the two cities. [...]

50 receives the eggs on January 7 this year, raising the water tank on top of the shoe box put the front door at home.

I have found the larvae except when the water tank 29, there are two head. [...]

If you try to go head to the left is more of the other hand, such as the right to go to the other direction, there is a swim when you separate, appear to be slow motion compared with other larvae.

It is also possible that genetic, or did this happen at the time of the (cleavage), been made ​​in stimulating some cell division “(61) is Assistant Professor Masahiro Ueno experimental field Fisheries Maizuru Center Field Science Education and Research, Kyoto University.

that are described as “born in probability is a fraction of tens of thousands.  Say about the growth of the future “because As soon as start eating the food on their own, become difficult to eat the food as I also think both sides, there is a possibility they starve to death, long is not likely to live” [...]
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
138. Skyepony (Mod)
Looking over the AOI in the Caribbean..It's being supported by divergence aloft. Most likely being aided from that sinking air to the west of it. Shear is 35-40kts. Dropping a little. Vorticity wise it's a mid level feature. Midlevel shear is only 12-18kts.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Snowing hard and in upper 20s.


Good. Not "The Fighting Season".
1 Chronicles 20:1

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Quoting sunlinepr:
Published: February 3rd, 2012 at 11:59 AM EDT By Enenews

Title: SAN ONOFRE: Worker at nuclear plant fell into reactor pool last week Source: North County Times
Date: Feb 3, 2012

A worker at San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station fell inside the plant’s Unit 2 reactor pool last week, but officials determined he did not suffer significant radiation exposure. [...]

The pool is more than 20 feet deep and holds water that continually circulates through the reactor core. [...]

Without the fuel present, the most likely source of deadly radiation would be stray fuel particles that could have been floating in the water, said Nuclear Regulatory Commission spokesman Victor Dricks. [...]

Southern California Edison spokesman Gil Alexander

“He was wearing all of the appropriate safety equipment, including a life preserver vest”
Edison decontaminated the worker
[Edison] conducted tests to determine whether he had swallowed any dangerous particles
Alexander said initial tests showed no significant radiation exposure
[Worker had] no history of security problems




No problems until he turns into this:
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
Quoting KoritheMan:


Are you threatening me?


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Published: February 3rd, 2012 at 11:59 AM EDT By Enenews

Title: SAN ONOFRE: Worker at nuclear plant fell into reactor pool last week Source: North County Times
Date: Feb 3, 2012

A worker at San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station fell inside the plant’s Unit 2 reactor pool last week, but officials determined he did not suffer significant radiation exposure. [...]

The pool is more than 20 feet deep and holds water that continually circulates through the reactor core. [...]

Without the fuel present, the most likely source of deadly radiation would be stray fuel particles that could have been floating in the water, said Nuclear Regulatory Commission spokesman Victor Dricks. [...]

Southern California Edison spokesman Gil Alexander

“He was wearing all of the appropriate safety equipment, including a life preserver vest”
Edison decontaminated the worker
[Edison] conducted tests to determine whether he had swallowed any dangerous particles
Alexander said initial tests showed no significant radiation exposure
[Worker had] no history of security problems

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes. :P


Don't you dare pull his finger!
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We're definitely past a foot of snow. Visibility has been 1 mile or less for past 31 hours.
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131. Skyepony (Mod)
95~ The blue sphere that rained from the sky..my guess is a polymer.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
Quoting KoritheMan:


Are you threatening me?

Yes. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
Quoting Ameister12:
It's quite amazing the amount of moisture there is in the GoM and Western Caribbean right now, especially in February! It's going to be a busy year.



No no no. Early season activity =/= seasonal activity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Hey BB. What's the weather like in 'stan?


Snowing hard and in upper 20s.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
125. 7544
hmm could it be possible to get a invest in feb looks good down there stay tuned
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6812
I would expect that. A pure tropical system would be a big surprise for February.

I looked at buoys 42056 and 42057 and see no strong pressure falls.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's not polite to point at things.

You don't want to lose that finger...do you?
*Scolding glance*


Are you threatening me?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
Hey BB. What's the weather like in 'stan?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's quite amazing the amount of moisture there is in the GoM and Western Caribbean right now, especially in February! It's going to be a busy year.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Lots of southerly shear too.

If it developed, it would be subtropical in nature as the GFS has been showing for several days.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
Well, a few days ago I said I would re-evaluate the genesis of "Alberto" today. I set it at .001% chance, and that I would wait until Saturday to increase/decrease depending on model support and if the system actually develops. Here we are, Saturday GMT time and I increase the chances to 1%! On Monday, if the models support the development and there is a hint that the NHC is taking notice I might bump them up to 5%.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
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Lots of southerly shear too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning!

That Yucatan system looks interesting for this time of year.

I'm not seeing a lot of convection with it. Looks mostly like mid and high level clouds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm not really sold on genesis just yet, but it's interesting to note that it's at least possible. It's not as if the incipient system doesn't exist.

*points to western Caribbean*

It's not polite to point at things.

You don't want to lose that finger...do you?
*Scolding glance*
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
I'm not really sold on genesis just yet, but it's interesting to note that it's at least possible. It's not as if the incipient system doesn't exist.

*points to western Caribbean*
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
Quoting sunlinepr:


They are using the puppet to scare and to take advantage of the effect it has on the global economic crisis....


Paranoia much?

Russia isn't what it used to be, and I see no reason for it to want to use Iran as a puppet to destroy the world? There are minimal ideological differences between Russia and the US these days, and the relations between the two only get strained when the topic of Arctic oil comes up.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
RGB Image


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Unnamed Tropical Storm
Tropical storm (SSHS)

Duration February 2 February 5
Intensity 60 mph (95 km/h) (1-min), Unknown
Main article: 1952 Groundhog Day Tropical Storm



On February 2, a tropical depression formed in the western Caribbean Sea two months after the end of the hurricane season. It moved quickly north-northwestward and intensified into a tropical storm, followed by a northeast turn after brushing the Yucatan Peninsula. Early on February 3, the storm struck Cape Sable, Florida and quickly crossed the state.

The Miami National Weather Service office recorded a wind gust of 68 mph (110 km/h) during its passage. The winds damaged windows and power lines, catching residents and tourists off-guard. The cyclone also dropped 2-4 inches (50-100 mm) of rain along its path, causing crop damage in Miami-Dade County.

After leaving Florida, the storm continued rapidly northeastward, strengthening to 50 mph (85 km/h) winds. On February 4 it completed the transition into an extratropical cyclone off the coast of North Carolina. Later that day, it passed over Cape Cod, and early on February 5 dissipated after crossing into Maine. The storm caused scattered power outages and gusty winds across New England.



The cyclone remains the only tropical or subtropical storm on record during the month of February, and was the earliest tropical cyclone to strike the United States.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


They are using the puppet to scare and to take advantage of the effect it has on the global economic crisis....
True, but the US may make a move.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:

Iran is no threat to the US. The problem is if Russia and China go against us. WW3 would soon follow, not sure if it would go thermo or not.


They are using the puppet to scare and to take advantage of the effect it has on the global economic crisis....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814


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Quoting biloxibob:
Hi Pat. Has there ever been a tropical system in the gulf in february?
Not Pat but in 1952 a depression formed in the same area and hit Florida.
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Quoting Ameister12:

Violent tornadoes in January/February and now tropical systems predicted to develop in February!? Oh man, it's going to be one of those years.
Cant believe I'm going to say this but...maybe the Mayans did know something...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Hi Pat. Has there ever been a tropical system in the gulf in february?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:
GLOBAL INSECURITY??

Iran warns world of coming great event
Says 'evil hegemony' soon will be defeated by power of Allah
Published: 23 hours ago
By Reza Kahlili

Amid crippling sanctions over its nuclear weapons program, Iran is continuing to prepare itself for war against the West, and now is warning of a coming great event....
Link

Is Iran building a missile to hit the U.S.?
Posted on February 3, 2012
February 3, 2012 – TEHRAN – Is Iran trying to develop a weapon to target the U.S.? The missile under construction at an Iranian research-and-development facility, which was damaged by a mysterious explosion in November, was a long-range missile prototype with a range of 6,000 miles – enough to hit the United States, a senior Israeli official said Thursday in a speech to a defense and security forum....

Link

Iran is no threat to the US. The problem is if Russia and China go against us. WW3 would soon follow, not sure if it would go thermo or not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
>ATTENTION ALL...anybody remember...Cleverbot..sorry..couldn't help it
Link
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ECMWF has 91P moving in a general ESE direction for the next 8 days...doesnt really do much with it until it the system crosses the 180W/180E line. then it blows it up
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485

Blue sphere The blue spheres are jelly-like but have no smell and are not sticky

27 January 2012 Last updated at 11:15 ET
Link

Bournemouth resident mystified by 'blue sphere shower'

A man in Dorset has been left mystified after tiny blue spheres fell from the sky into his garden.
Steve Hornsby from Bournemouth said the 3cm diameter balls came raining down late on Thursday afternoon during a hail storm.
He found about a dozen of the balls in his garden. He said: "[They're] difficult to pick up, I had to get a spoon and flick them into a jam jar."

The Met Office said the jelly-like substance was "not meteorological".

Mr Hornsby, a former aircraft engineer, said: "The sky went a really dark yellow colour.

"As I walked outside to go to the garage there was an instant hail storm for a few seconds and I thought, 'what's that in the grass'?"
'No smell'
Advertisement

Mr Hornsby said he was keeping the balls in his fridge while he tried to find out what they were

Walking around his garden he found many more blue spheres were scattered across the grass.

He said: "The have an exterior shell with a softer inner but have no smell, aren't sticky and do not melt."

Mr Hornsby said he was keeping the balls in his fridge while he tried to find out what they were.

Josie Pegg, an applied science research assistant at Bournemouth University, speculated that the apparently strange phenomena might be "marine invertebrate eggs".

"These have been implicated in previous 'strange goo' incidents," she said. "I'd have thought it's a little early for spawning but I suppose we've had a very mild winter.

"The transmission of eggs on birds' feet is well documented and I guess if a bird was caught out in a storm this could be the cause."
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
Quoting CybrTeddy:
18z GFS has a straight up Tropical Storm developing in the Eastern Pacific starting by 252 hours.
Really??? Alright I guess we have decided to start both the EPAC and Atlantic very early then....... Fun times, I almost forgot that this is Febuary not August.
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Earth’s climate spiraling into chaos
Posted on February 3, 2012

January 3, 2012 – AUSTRALIA – Severe flooding is threatening parts of New South Wales and Queensland in eastern Australia, with towns cut off and thousands of residents evacuated. More than 10,000 people in communities affected by the floods have been left stranded, authorities said on Friday. A military helicopter was sent to the northern New South Wales town of Moree with bedding and supplies. “From the air it looks like an inland sea,” said New South Wales Premier Barry O’Farrell. Moree is reportedly facing its worst flooding in more than 35 years, with more than 2,000 people ordered to evacuate homes and buildings. Water levels at the Mehi River there had peaked and flooding was expected to continue for several days, emergency officials said. “As you fly over the centre of the town there are streets that look like canals that have more relevance to Venice than north-western New South Wales,” said Mr O’Farrell. In the town of Mitchell in Queensland, about 200 people have reportedly been forced to evacuate after floodwater inundated their homes. Queensland Premier Anna Bligh said the hospital had also been evacuated and five schools were closed, following fears that the Maranoa river could reach a record 10-metre height. The Bureau of Meteorology in Australia also issued a severe weather warning for parts of Queensland on Friday. –BBC


Hawaii drought worsens: Federal authorities today issued a natural disaster designation for Hawai’i County due to ongoing drought conditions. The designation clears the way for affected ranchers and farmers to apply for federal relief. According to the National Weather Service, Extreme Drought conditions persists in the South Kohala and portions of the Hamakua District of Hawaii Island. Hydrologist Kevin Kodama noted in a recent advisory that pastures and general vegetation over most of the district were in very poor condition causing an ongoing concern for brush fires. The advisory further stated that ranchers in the area destocked cattle and initiated water hauling operations, while some Kona coffee growers, had to irrigate more than normal to sustain their orchards. The U.S. Department of Agriculture issued the declaration on Jan. 18, 2012, after reviewing an application submitted by the governor last month. “By designating Hawai’i County a natural disaster area, President Obama and US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack have recognized that the island’s farmers and ranchers have endured enough,” said Governor Neil Abercrombie in a statement. “Even today, Big Island residents continue to experience drought conditions ranging from severe to extreme. The USDA’s assistance will help hard working families recover losses and see it through until conditions improve,” he said. –Maui Now

Kenyan Elders are no longer able to predict the rains


MARSABIT, Kenya – Nomadic communities living off the dry terrain of northern Kenya have relied for generations on the powers of village elders to predict the weather. But the divinations of traditional forecasters were confounded by an unexpectedly severe drought in 2011, threatening herders’ livelihoods. Now pastoralists and meteorological experts are trying to find better ways to cope with regional weather that is increasingly difficult to anticipate – a situation some believe is linked to climate change. Using their traditional forecasting systems, the elders in Marsabit district predicted that rains would fail in the area from October or November 2010 until April 2011, but that after this dry spell the situation would return to normal. This information was relayed to the community through the network of traditional elders in every village in the district. As anticipated, there were only erratic rains towards the end of 2010, and then a dry period.
But the onset of rain predicted for April never occurred, and the situation rapidly turned catastrophic. With livestock weakened, pasture diminished and the water running dry for people and livestock, thousands of herders crossed into southern Ethiopia in search of water and pasture, while others fled remote villages for towns in search of food and pasture. Abdi Boru, from the Turbi area of Marsabit, said he lost 23 head of cattle in the drought, leaving him with just two. “The situation changed to worse from (what the elders) predicted and everybody started losing livestock in high numbers. We could not move them across the border as they were weak, and we watched while they died,” said Boru. When rains finally came in November 2011, they were so heavy that there was flash flooding, which the traditional forecasters also failed to predict. Kunu Halakano, an elder in Dambalfanchana village, said he was shocked by the turn of events. “We have given our community weather information for many years, and that assisted them in understanding what to expect and plan, but now I am seeing something else from what we predicted. We predicted good rains after the dry spell and (yet) the rains failed from April to October,” said Halakano. –Alert Net

Drug-trade affected by drought in Mexico – Associated Press, February 1, 2012

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
Quoting CybrTeddy:
18z GFS has a straight up Tropical Storm developing in the Eastern Pacific starting by 252 hours.

Violent tornadoes in January/February and now tropical systems predicted to develop in February!? Oh man, it's going to be one of those years.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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