Europe cold wave deaths hit 200; low-snow winter for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on February 03, 2012

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Brutal winter cold continues over most of Europe, where at least 200 people have died in a cold wave that began January 26. Hardest hit has been Ukraine, where the temperature bottomed out at -17°F (-27°C) at the capital of Kyiv this morning. It was the second coldest day of the cold wave, behind the -28°C reading of February 2. These temperatures are the coldest winter weather in six years in Ukraine, and at least 101 deaths are being blamed on the cold there. Also hard-hit has been Poland, where 37 people, most of them homeless, have died from the cold. Rome, Italy experienced a rare snowfall today, only its second day with snow during the past fifteen years. Very cold temperatures 10 - 20°C below average will continue for another seven days in Europe before gradually moderating late next week.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average as analyzed by the GFS model, for February 2, 2012. Remarkably cold air was present over Europe and western Alaska, while very warm air was over central North America and Siberia. This image is being generated experimentally by wunderground, and will be regularly available on our web site in the future.

Meanwhile, a snow drought for the U.S.
In the U.S., it's been the opposite story, with temperatures 10 - 15°F above average continuing this week over much of the nation. January 2012 is in the weather record books as the 3rd least-snowy January for the contiguous U.S. since snow records began in 1966, and December 2011 ranked as the 11th least snowy December on record. With no major snow storms in the offing over at least the next ten days, it's looking probable that the non-winter of 2011 - 2012 will set numerous record-low seasonal snowfall totals. The National Weather Service sends out a daily "Weather and Almanac" product for several hundred major U.S. cities that we make available on wunderground. I went through yesterday's statistics for those cities that reported measurable snow this winter. Only nine cities out of 166 major U.S. cities in the lower 48 states reported above-average snowfall as of February 1; 157 cities received below-average snowfall. The big winner in the snow sweepstakes has been Alaska, which is boasting 8 of the top 10 locations for heaviest snowfall this winter. While the 27.75 feet of snow that has fallen on Valdez has gotten a lot of attention, more remarkable is the 18.8 feet of snow Yakutat has received. That's more than 12.5 feet above what they usually have by this time of year.



The big losers in the snow stats for this winter are the cities along the lake effect snow belts on the Great Lakes. Most notably, Syracuse, New York is nearly four feet of snow below average for this time of year. Perhaps more exceptional is Williston, North Dakota, which has received just 1.8" of snow this winter--more than two feet below their average for February 1.



Have a super weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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BBL
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21516
2012 has started very active in terms of Tornadoes as so far 96 have been reported,but is preliminary data. Will this 2012 severe weather season be very active as last year's?

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14042


CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SPINE
OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO A BASE OVER
PANAMA. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING W OF 77W TO OVER
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA. EASTERLY TRADES
REMAIN STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
ENCOMPASSING THE AREA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W TO 78W AND
SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 12 FT. EAST OF 70W...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS VERY LITTLE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM OVER TRINIDAD NEAR 10N61W TO BEYOND 20N70W. WITH THIS
OVERALL SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN FAIR WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.
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Rainbow Loop
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Good morning.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21516
287. 882MB
THIS IS WHAT THEY SAY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
On an unrelated note, it's rather difficult to stay in shape. I've been relatively consistent in eating only 1 to 2 meals per day, the second typically being low fat cereals like corn flakes and cheerios. I thought I'd be used to cutting down my calories, but it's not easy.

I also exercise five days a week.


I just retired, and I've used this method for years, it works.
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285. 882MB
AS I HAD SAID A DAY EARLIER I HAD A FEELING THIS TROUGH IN THE YUCATAN WAS GOING TO BRING US SOME RAINFALL HERE IN S FL, MODELS TRENDING WETTER,PLUS THE NEXT IMPULSE AFTER THIS ONE,GOTTA SAY REALLY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TO HAPPEN DURING LA NINA,BUT SOMETIMES THEY DO HAPPEN!LOL!


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2012/

DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS WHICH IS MAINTAINING
THE ENHANCED WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. AS A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL START TO BE PUSHED EASTWARD WITH
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS LESSENING ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. FOR TODAY THE ENHANCED SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE BAHAMAS INTO THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. MOST OF THE FOCUS
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND EXTENDING TO
NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY FORECASTS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH DEEPER LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A SHORTWAVE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COULD EXTEND INTO THE REGION...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTRODUCED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD
ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PERSISTING IN THE GUIDANCE AS WELL...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
POINT...HOWEVER...NEED TO STRESS THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION COULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE REGION OR IN THE CENTRAL
GULF ON SUNDAY. BUT EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WOULD
BE EXPECTED EVEN IF IT IS ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE GULF. SO EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR INCREASING MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. OBVIOUSLY THE EXTENDED
FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS WELL GIVEN THE SHORT TERM UNCERTAINTY.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Dang, your grandpa must have been huge. I am pretty damn skinny, have been all my life, trying to change that but my metabolism is making that tough.
Be who you are. Nothing wrong with being thin. If you are serious about gaining weight, you have to do more than eat more. Much better to build muscle than fat, which means strength / weight training and nutritious food choices to give your body the energy it needs.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21516
Quoting Xyrus2000:


My goodness you guys are all rails. :D

My lowest weight in adulthood was 225, and I had a body fat percentage of around 11% at that weight. Supposedly I get it from grandfather. He was bear 6'8" and around 300. He used to work on the railroads in PA.
Dang, your grandpa must have been huge. I am pretty damn skinny, have been all my life, trying to change that but my metabolism is making that tough.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah it sure can be. It's hard to get motivated sometimes, having a friend to workout with you really helps.

I have the opposite problem though..I'm pretty skinny and I'm trying to gain weight. I'm just under 6 feet tall and I weigh like 150, so this year my new year's resolution was to eat as much as I can lol


My goodness you guys are all rails. :D

My lowest weight in adulthood was 225, and I had a body fat percentage of around 11% at that weight. Supposedly I get it from grandfather. He was bear 6'8" and around 300. He used to work on the railroads in PA.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
As long as your waist size is smaller than your inseam when you buy jeans you're OK. Same or larger and you need to slim down! As long as you're exercising. Studies show that thin but sedentary people do not have the best health either.


That's certainly not a one-size-fits all stat. I'm 6'4" with an inseam around 34. If my waist was 34 with my body frame, I'd look anorexic. When I was at my peak condition (when I was working out a couple hours a day), I was a 36 and I really didn't have much body fat left to lose unless I wanted to become Bastardi. :P
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Quoting KoritheMan:
On an unrelated note, it's rather difficult to stay in shape. I've been relatively consistent in eating only 1 to 2 meals per day, the second typically being low fat cereals like corn flakes and cheerios. I thought I'd be used to cutting down my calories, but it's not easy.

I also exercise five days a week.
Yeah it sure can be. It's hard to get motivated sometimes, having a friend to workout with you really helps.

I have the opposite problem though..I'm pretty skinny and I'm trying to gain weight. I'm just under 6 feet tall and I weigh like 150, so this year my new year's resolution was to eat as much as I can lol
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Studies show that thin but sedentary people do not have the best health either.


Woohoo!
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As long as your waist size is smaller than your inseam when you buy jeans you're OK. Same or larger and you need to slim down! As long as you're exercising. Studies show that thin but sedentary people do not have the best health either.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
175 at 6'2. Run then. Go long too.


Might need new pants, then. My waist size has decreased considerably. >.>
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yqt1001 you may also like this homage to Charles Minard by xkcd. Showing a Minard-type graph for Lord of the Rings, Star Wars, and other stories. Image is very large.
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175 at 6'2. Run then. Go long too.
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Quoting TheoJesse:

IMO nature has not given humans the instincts to avoid catastrophic disasters happening.
Right on the money. Humans are inherently attracted to danger, calamity, and misfortune; we just react to it differently.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Camile, em>
I missed Camile.
I rocked the boat last night so I might as well tonight.
IMO nature has not given humans the instincts to avoid catastrophic disasters happening. Thus the storm chasers, such as Jim Cantore, and others exists. The only thing that will stop this attitude is when those people have to go through these same happenings with no protection. Have I made any sense?
Jesse
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Depends on your height.
I'm 6'2".
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Quoting KoritheMan:

To stay below 180 (I'm 175), and to tone up this flabby body.


Depends on your height. Lift weights but DONT exercise the same muscle groups on consecutive days. Biking is the best aerobic exercise if you are building muscle. Running if you want to be lean.

Running hard tends to break muscle down.
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Too bad Charles Minard isn't around now. Love to see what he could do with modern graphic tools.

Although maybe he wouldn't do much better. He achieved perfection with the tools he had. But he could have made them faster and graphed more things.
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Quoting yqt1001:


Yes, it's very impressive. Even more impressive when you can actually understand it. :P Though the font isn't the easiest to read.


It looks Ok to moi.
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Quoting yqt1001:


Roughly translated by me, the first line is "Figurative map of the successive losses of soldiers in the Russian countryside in 1812-13"

The fatality rate in the Russian campaign has to be the highest ever seen in humanity. Even the gruesome trench warfare of WW1 only had a fatality rate of 10%.
Hey, that's darn close to what i figured. I had it figured out that it was in French, and about Russian losses and had to do with temperatures. Had one of the guys who was in on developing Roseta Stone@ tell me I should have been a linguist. Oh well, another boat missed. At least I never marched into Russia.
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Charles Minard also did a graph about Hannibal's march from Spain to Italy. The graph does not achieve the perfection of the Napoleonic campaign graph but is still very good. Here is the Hannibal March graph.
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What the graph also shows is that most of the deaths came before Moscow and the arrival of winter. Fewer than half the troops had survived until then. Disease.

The Battle of Borodino is not well known now, but it was where the Russians made a stand before Napoleon made it to Moscow.

The battle must have given Napoleon pause. He won, but he lost more soldiers than in any other battle.

Napoleon lost 30,000-35,000 men, including 480 officers. 47 generals.

The Russians under Mikhail Illarionovich Golenishchev-Kutuzov lost 39,000-45,000 soldiers and 221 officers and 23 generals. The Russians had to retreat, but were not destroyed. And winter was waiting.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
yqt1001 that's a statistical graph with 6 variables. I have read it described as the best statistical graph ever created.


Yes, it's very impressive. Even more impressive when you can actually understand it. :P Though the font isn't the easiest to read.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
That's General Winter. Although I played fast and loose with google translate and got the word general instead of the title General. So be it.

422,000 soldiers went into Russia under Napoleon's command.

10,000 made it out alive.


Roughly translated by me, the first line is "Figurative map of the successive losses of soldiers in the Russian countryside in 1812-13"

The fatality rate in the Russian campaign has to be the highest ever seen in humanity. Even the gruesome trench warfare of WW1 only had a fatality rate of 10%.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


What's your goal?
To stay below 180 (I'm 175), and to tone up this flabby body.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
On an unrelated note, it's rather difficult to stay in shape. I've been relatively consistent in eating only 1 to 2 meals per day, the second typically being low fat cereals like corn flakes and cheerios. I thought I'd be used to cutting down my calories, but it's not easy.

I also exercise five days a week.


What's your goal?
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Quoting Chicklit:
How many days until the start of hurricane season 2012?


The way it's going, looks like 3.
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On an unrelated note, it's rather difficult to stay in shape. I've been relatively consistent in eating only 1 to 2 meals per day, the second typically being low fat cereals like corn flakes and cheerios. I thought I'd be used to cutting down my calories, but it's not easy.

I also exercise five days a week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
yqt1001 that's a statistical graph with 6 variables. I have read it described as the best statistical graph ever created.
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That's General Winter. Although I played fast and loose with google translate and got the word general instead of the title General. So be it.

422,000 soldiers went into Russia under Napoleon's command.

10,000 made it out alive.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
KoritheMan and Napoleon might agree about Генеральный зимние
My language skills are minimal but that appears to have something to do with Napoleon's misadventures with Russian Winter.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
KoritheMan and Napoleon might agree about %u0413%u0435%u043D%u0435%u0440%u0430%u043B%u044C%u 043D%u044B%u0439 %u0437%u0438%u043C%u043D%u0438%u0435


Oh my god, I think I found one of my favourite image ever. Amazing! Thanks! :D
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Clearly, charisma follows you wherever you go.


I honestly guess so.
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KoritheMan and Napoleon might agree about Генеральный зимние
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How many days until the start of hurricane season 2012?
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Quoting JNCali:
Anyone thinking we may have a Hurricane before Easter this year?
No.
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Quoting yqt1001:


You aren't alone...I'm from Canada and I find hockey to be rather boring. Bunch of men fighting with each other bounded by rules, I get that form of "entertainment" from watching war documentaries.
Hockey's not big down here so I can't really comment.
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Anyone thinking we may have a Hurricane before Easter this year?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i give you exercise
That... frightens me.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Well I don't. And yes, I realize I'm from Louisiana. >_>


You aren't alone...I'm from Canada and I find hockey to be rather boring. Bunch of men fighting against each other while being bounded by rules, I get that form of "entertainment" from watching war documentaries.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


And somehow I'll have to find time to forecast them despite work/exercise.



i give you exercise
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Quoting flsky:
Football can be great if you have a good understanding of it.

Well I don't. And yes, I realize I'm from Louisiana. >_>
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:

Then again maybe my kind of crazy is as good as some other kinds of crazy. ;^)}
"One's man meat is another man's poison."

Anyway, I don't care what people believe. If they like to experience the full power of nature, fine. If they don't, that's fine too. Human conflict would be significantly lessened if people would stop sweating the small ****. Worry about things that actually matter, like murder or rape, and let differences of opinion be differences of opinion.
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244. flsky
Football can be great if you have a good understanding of it. My dad and I used to watch it when I was a kid and he taught me a lot. These days my SO clues me in to what I can't remember or what is new. At any rate, I always find it an amazing experience to see people do they can do in an excellent way.

Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't see the appeal. :|
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Quoting TheoJesse:

Amen to that.
Opal, Ivan and Katrina.
None of them were fun.
Jesse
Camile, 1969 was my introduction to the true power of nature. Totally decimated Nelson Co., VA. Forty two years later the community has not fully recovered from the trauma. They can be impressive, awe inspiring and a legitimate area of study, but fun, NOT. I have little respect for thrill and publicity seekers posing as researchers tearing around and getting in the way of legitimate first responders. If you aren't affiliated with a university, the national weather service or some organization like wunderground, in my book you are just like the jerks that spend their time listening to scanners and trying to beat the fire company to the scene. One of my local heroes is a fire truck driver who plowed through about a half dozen vehicles on one of the back roads and then collected insurance from them to fix the front bumper on his truck.

As you can tell, I'm not quite rational about this issue. Then again maybe my kind of crazy is as good as some other kinds of crazy. ;^)}
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Quoting Tazmanian:
soon the mode runs will start forcasting hurrcanes and TS


And somehow I'll have to find time to forecast them despite work/exercise.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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