Europe cold wave deaths hit 200; low-snow winter for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on February 03, 2012

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Brutal winter cold continues over most of Europe, where at least 200 people have died in a cold wave that began January 26. Hardest hit has been Ukraine, where the temperature bottomed out at -17°F (-27°C) at the capital of Kyiv this morning. It was the second coldest day of the cold wave, behind the -28°C reading of February 2. These temperatures are the coldest winter weather in six years in Ukraine, and at least 101 deaths are being blamed on the cold there. Also hard-hit has been Poland, where 37 people, most of them homeless, have died from the cold. Rome, Italy experienced a rare snowfall today, only its second day with snow during the past fifteen years. Very cold temperatures 10 - 20°C below average will continue for another seven days in Europe before gradually moderating late next week.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average as analyzed by the GFS model, for February 2, 2012. Remarkably cold air was present over Europe and western Alaska, while very warm air was over central North America and Siberia. This image is being generated experimentally by wunderground, and will be regularly available on our web site in the future.

Meanwhile, a snow drought for the U.S.
In the U.S., it's been the opposite story, with temperatures 10 - 15°F above average continuing this week over much of the nation. January 2012 is in the weather record books as the 3rd least-snowy January for the contiguous U.S. since snow records began in 1966, and December 2011 ranked as the 11th least snowy December on record. With no major snow storms in the offing over at least the next ten days, it's looking probable that the non-winter of 2011 - 2012 will set numerous record-low seasonal snowfall totals. The National Weather Service sends out a daily "Weather and Almanac" product for several hundred major U.S. cities that we make available on wunderground. I went through yesterday's statistics for those cities that reported measurable snow this winter. Only nine cities out of 166 major U.S. cities in the lower 48 states reported above-average snowfall as of February 1; 157 cities received below-average snowfall. The big winner in the snow sweepstakes has been Alaska, which is boasting 8 of the top 10 locations for heaviest snowfall this winter. While the 27.75 feet of snow that has fallen on Valdez has gotten a lot of attention, more remarkable is the 18.8 feet of snow Yakutat has received. That's more than 12.5 feet above what they usually have by this time of year.



The big losers in the snow stats for this winter are the cities along the lake effect snow belts on the Great Lakes. Most notably, Syracuse, New York is nearly four feet of snow below average for this time of year. Perhaps more exceptional is Williston, North Dakota, which has received just 1.8" of snow this winter--more than two feet below their average for February 1.



Have a super weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:
Anybody have any interesting plans for tomorrow>


Hamburger Cheese dip and wings all day. :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
Anybody have any interesting plans for tomorrow>

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
Convergence not that nice:

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Hmmm... :)
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
Definitely an interesting pattern taking shape over the U.S.
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This area is flaring up again..
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Quoting presslord:


Where! is! it! gonna! hit!


You do William Shatner proud.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Probably a very bad drought season coming for the MidWest and NorthEast this summer.


Time to invest in agricultural commodities then. :P
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Looks very Troughy down there in the carib...lets see if it can detach and go!
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Dang, your grandpa must have been huge. I am pretty damn skinny, have been all my life, trying to change that but my metabolism is making that tough.


Lucky. For me, it's a constant battle to not put on weight. If I so much as smell a box a doughnuts I sprout love handles and become a fire hazard when wearing corduroys. If I ate what I wanted to eat I end up looking like melted vanilla soft-serve ice cream dipped in hair clippings. :D
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Hello from flooded south central texas, 15 inches here since Nov. 8th including over 7 inches in 2012. You go west of Austin 30 to 50 miles around our Lake areas and they cannot buy a shower, Lake Travis is down 55 feet and no rain is falling in the right places for them to get any water. Areas around there are out of water and having it trucked in, 30 miles to the southeast I have water standing everywhere. 1 out of every 5 La Ninas are wetter than normal and this is true for Texas which is awesome news. It is green everywhere around here and I am mowing and edging my yard because i need to. Last year at this time temps were 16 to 30 degrees. I had 9.5 inches of rain from Sept 2010 to November 7th 2011 then the skies opened up. Those areas that still need rain throughout the USA I hope you receive it soon. It may take a tropical system for our lakes to get the rain they need because almost every system has the rains forming along IH35 and eastward.
I hope you all can get rain where you need it most. I have not had much time to make a prediction or look at the forecasts, but the weather has without a doubt taken a turn for the unusual. I have some trees sprouting leaves here on the Cumberland Plateau. Flowers have been sprouting the whole winter period here.
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Hello from flooded south central texas, 15 inches here since Nov. 8th including over 7 inches in 2012. You go west of Austin 30 to 50 miles around our Lake areas and they cannot buy a shower, Lake Travis is down 55 feet and no rain is falling in the right places for them to get any water. Areas around there are out of water and having it trucked in, 30 miles to the southeast I have water standing everywhere. 1 out of every 5 La Ninas are wetter than normal and this is true for Texas which is awesome news. It is green everywhere around here and I am mowing and edging my yard because i need to. Last year at this time temps were 16 to 30 degrees. I had 9.5 inches of rain from Sept 2010 to November 7th 2011 then the skies opened up. Those areas that still need rain throughout the USA I hope you receive it soon. It may take a tropical system for our lakes to get the rain they need because almost every system has the rains forming along IH35 and eastward.
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If there is a spot for possible tropical development in the Atlantic basin this time of year, thats the area it would most likely happen. With all the strange weather going on, it would not surprise me if something formed there..
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75F, sunny and hazy, wi. a slight breeze from the east in north florida.. dry.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This disturbance has consolidated quite nicely from last night. If I had no idea what time of year it was and just looked at satellite imagery, I could believe this system was on its way to becoming a named storm.

I don't know what to call this thing.





ASCAT finally partially caught it...
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60 hour new snow forecast NAM
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
This disturbance has consolidated quite nicely from last night. If I had no idea what time of year it was and just looked at satellite imagery, I could believe this system was on its way to becoming a named storm.

I don't know what to call this thing.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
back l8r
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
maybe i can git a nice line of thunderstorms today....
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How NASA Solved a $100 Million Problem for Five Bucks.

Link

Well I would guess it was a couple more bucks than that, but still less expensive and lighter.
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321. wxmod
Asia smog leaving Asia

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320. wxmod
Asia smog in mid Pacific

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Quoting hydrus:
Thats got to be a cat-5...


too strong to rank...
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Quoting presslord:


Where! is! it! gonna! hit!
Carolina.s ........This actually happened 60 years ago...Pressure map showing the Groundhog Day Tropical Storm as an extra-tropical storm off of the Eastern Seaboard.After the storm moved into the western Atlantic, the Miami U.S. Weather Bureau issued storm warnings for the North Carolina coastline from Wilmington to Cape Hatteras; the region was warned to prepare for strong winds. The agency also issued a small craft advisory southward through Charleston, South Carolina. Offshore, the storm produced winds of up to 85 mph (140 km/h), as well as waves up to 35 feet (10 m) in height. The combination of the winds and rough waves drove a freighter ashore along Portsmouth Island in the Outer Banks, after the engine was damaged when water entered the fuel line. The 26 person crew initially planned to evacuate, but they later decided to stay on the freighter as the U.S. Coast Guard were deployed to assist. The seas damaged a portion of the ship, but the entire crew was rescued without any injuries. The storm later brushed New England, bringing rain, fog, warmer temperatures, and gusty winds. The combination resulted in downed power poles and tree limbs, leaving 10,000 houses without electricity...As per Wiki..
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The models seem to want cold air for the U.S..It never really happens tho...If this were to continue into March. We may not see much severe weather as the seasonal jet shift will be much less pronounced.
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Quoting hydrus:
Thats got to be a cat-5...


Where! is! it! gonna! hit!
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Thats got to be a cat-5...
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


ugh, don't want another 2005.



UGH is correct.....don't wanna see another 2005!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Hope you're wrong on that one Tampa, USA needs a break on screwy weather.



Snow cover keeps the top soil from drying out....NO Snow has really dried out the top soil very deep thus far. Unless the spring is wet then we might have a problem. Just my opinion tho....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting presslord:


Yup..Grothar was really fortunate to have lived through all that...
Anything that old has got to be tough..Good morning Press.
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Quoting pwmeek:
This lack of snow and this warm weather is not good for Great Lakes Levels.

Less falling in the Lakes directly, and less from the watershed as the (lack of) snow melts.

Additionally, evaporation going on all winter with less ice cover.
They will disappear(again) one day. Unless of course there is a freak climate change that sends us into another Ice Age.
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Quoting hydrus:
1348 was a terrible year for Europe as Black Death was ravaging the populace....Killed two thirds of its citizens ya know.


Yup..Grothar was really fortunate to have lived through all that...
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Quoting Grothar:


We have to be nice to hydrus. Currently he is our resident-in-reserve for these things in the off-season. It would surprise the heck out of me if something does develop. Although I do recall back in 1348 a similar setup in February, Although in the old calendar it was really March.
1348 was a terrible year for Europe as Black Death was ravaging the populace....Killed two thirds of its citizens ya know.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
TORNADO WARNING
LAC003-011-041445-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0026.120204T1420Z-120204T1445Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
820 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL ALLEN PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES MITTIE...
NORTHEASTERN BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES SUGARTOWN...

* UNTIL 845 AM CST

* AT 815 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES WEST OF
SUGARTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SUGARTOWN BY 835 AM CST...
GRANT AND MITTIE BY 845 AM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY
TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
337-477-5285 EXTENSION 1.

LAT...LON 3088 9303 3088 9289 3068 9284 3071 9325
3088 9324 3089 9317 3088 9313
TIME...MOT...LOC 1420Z 272DEG 25KT 3079 9314
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
... Flash Flood Watch in effect through this afternoon...

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Louisiana and southeast
Texas... including the following areas... in Louisiana...
Acadia... Allen... Avoyelles... Beauregard... Calcasieu...
Evangeline... Jefferson Davis... Lafayette... Rapides... St.
Landry... upper St. Martin and Vernon. In southeast Texas...
Hardin... Jefferson... northern Jasper... northern Newton...
Orange... southern Jasper... southern Newton and Tyler.

* Through this afternoon

* widespread shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected
today along and ahead of a cold front advancing across the
region. Unusually high moisture values in place ahead of this
feature along with relatively slow moving convection will yield
heavy and possible flooding rains. Additionally... antecedent
conditions from previous rains of the last several days will add
to the flooding threat. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches will
be common across the area... with isolated areas receiving 3 to
5 inches.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
304. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
300. TampaSpin 2:16 PM GMT on February 04, 2012


Probably a very bad drought season coming for the MidWest and NorthEast this summer.


ugh, don't want another 2005.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47111
Quoting TampaSpin:


Probably a very bad drought season coming for the MidWest and NorthEast this summer.


Hope you're wrong on that one Tampa, USA needs a break on screwy weather.
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Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
Quoting yqt1001:


Oh my god, I think I found one of my favourite image ever. Amazing! Thanks! :D


Featured in The Visual Display of Quantitative Information by Edward R. Tufte (p 41). Said to be the greatest information graphic ever created.
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Quoting presslord:


I was wundering: Will this lack of snow mitigate Spring flooding?


Probably a very bad drought season coming for the MidWest and NorthEast this summer.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
According to HAMweather’s website, in the US 11 low temperature records have been tied or bested while 560 high temperature records have been tied or bested during the past week.

Like the plants in the picture, my garlic have grown above the soil surface here in central VA.

Meanwhile in frigid Europe, what little warmth there is seems to be coming from the North. Here is the global temperature picture and anomalies for 2/1/12.



Finally, the Arctic Sea Ice extent continues to grow very slowly as the sun creeps over the horizon. As can be seen the level is considerably below (about 250,000 square km) that for record year 2007 on this date.

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Quoting pwmeek:
This lack of snow and this warm weather is not good for Great Lakes Levels.

Less falling in the Lakes directly, and less from the watershed as the (lack of) snow melts.

Additionally, evaporation going on all winter with less ice cover.


I was wundering: Will this lack of snow mitigate Spring flooding?
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297. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12U)
11:00 PM EST February 4 2012
=========================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (987 hPa) located at 16.9S 150.7E or 100 km southeast of Willis Is and 490 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in northern quadrant
30 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 17.1S 152.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 17.0S 154.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.2S 159.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 17.3S 164.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
========================

Tropical Cyclone centre position confident as system within Willis Island radar. Convection has flared near the low level circulation center suggesting lowering shear and increasing organization, though most of the convection still remains to the west of the system. Strongest winds remain to the north of the system with consistent Willis Island observations of 45 knots. Favourable upper divergence and wind shear indicating gradual intensification probable over the next 48 hours. The system has increased its easterly movement over the past few hours and is expected to continue moving to the east.

The next tropical cyclone advice/bulletin from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC Jasmine will be issued at 19:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47111
This lack of snow and this warm weather is not good for Great Lakes Levels.

Less falling in the Lakes directly, and less from the watershed as the (lack of) snow melts.

Additionally, evaporation going on all winter with less ice cover.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
GFS is portraying a rather active period for the peninsula over the next week. Two low level impulses topped off with a grandios cold front at the end of the run.
throwing dice looking for a big jackpot. watch the last cold front get stuck somewhere near c fl. very heavy rain
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GFS is portraying a rather active period for the peninsula over the next week. Two low level impulses topped off with a grandios cold front at the end of the run.
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I'm surprised men are talking about losing weight.Usually it's us females that do that.....
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BBL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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