Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Europe cold wave deaths hit 200; low-snow winter for the U.S.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:06 PM GMT on February 03, 2012

+25

Brutal winter cold continues over most of Europe, where at least 200 people have died in a cold wave that began January 26. Hardest hit has been Ukraine, where the temperature bottomed out at -17°F (-27°C) at the capital of Kyiv this morning. It was the second coldest day of the cold wave, behind the -28°C reading of February 2. These temperatures are the coldest winter weather in six years in Ukraine, and at least 101 deaths are being blamed on the cold there. Also hard-hit has been Poland, where 37 people, most of them homeless, have died from the cold. Rome, Italy experienced a rare snowfall today, only its second day with snow during the past fifteen years. Very cold temperatures 10 - 20°C below average will continue for another seven days in Europe before gradually moderating late next week.

Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average as analyzed by the GFS model, for February 2, 2012. Remarkably cold air was present over Europe and western Alaska, while very warm air was over central North America and Siberia. This image is being generated experimentally by wunderground, and will be regularly available on our web site in the future.

Meanwhile, a snow drought for the U.S.
In the U.S., it's been the opposite story, with temperatures 10 - 15°F above average continuing this week over much of the nation. January 2012 is in the weather record books as the 3rd least-snowy January for the contiguous U.S. since snow records began in 1966, and December 2011 ranked as the 11th least snowy December on record. With no major snow storms in the offing over at least the next ten days, it's looking probable that the non-winter of 2011 - 2012 will set numerous record-low seasonal snowfall totals. The National Weather Service sends out a daily "Weather and Almanac" product for several hundred major U.S. cities that we make available on wunderground. I went through yesterday's statistics for those cities that reported measurable snow this winter. Only nine cities out of 166 major U.S. cities in the lower 48 states reported above-average snowfall as of February 1; 157 cities received below-average snowfall. The big winner in the snow sweepstakes has been Alaska, which is boasting 8 of the top 10 locations for heaviest snowfall this winter. While the 27.75 feet of snow that has fallen on Valdez has gotten a lot of attention, more remarkable is the 18.8 feet of snow Yakutat has received. That's more than 12.5 feet above what they usually have by this time of year.

The big losers in the snow stats for this winter are the cities along the lake effect snow belts on the Great Lakes. Most notably, Syracuse, New York is nearly four feet of snow below average for this time of year. Perhaps more exceptional is Williston, North Dakota, which has received just 1.8" of snow this winter--more than two feet below their average for February 1.

Have a super weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Freezed Guy (cathykiro)

Windows in the winter (cetus)

Snowy Golosiiv wood...

The snow and sun (Cirrostratuss)

Maximum temperature today -21c in the afternoon.

Bulbs - Northern IL Jan. 31, 2012 (juslivn)

Noooo Babies! Hide, hide! It's a trick! It's too early.

Winter (roslany)

Frozen River (tomekandjola)

Categories: Winter Weather

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501. TropicalAnalystwx13 4:00 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting Ameister12: The Texas drought is still exceptional, but it's shrinking. Southern Texas is getting some nice rain right now, which still desperately needs it. The drought will come back in full-force in a few months. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25330

502. NCHurricane2009 4:03 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting Patrap: I am glad someone posted this...so I am not the only one that's noticed this disturbance in the NW Caribbean. Its a surface trough that is supported by a cut-off upper trough. A lot of wind shear across the surface trough....but a bit interesting for February.... Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

503. Ameister12 4:03 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: The drought will come back in full-force in a few months. You're probably right. They really need a soaker of a tropical storm. Not a troll like Don. Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3518

504. TropicalAnalystwx13 4:05 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes: Yeah, but thats still not as creepy as the lamp shades, or the amount of pillows on that couch. Lol. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25330

505. NCHurricane2009 4:07 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting Ameister12: You're probably right. They really need a soaker of a tropical storm. Not a troll like Don. The drought also helped to keep Don suppressed...a strong upper anticyclone supported by the hot air of the drought put northerly shear across Don. When Don neared the Texas coast, it coughed on the dry air & dissipated very rapidly.... Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

506. AtHomeInTX 4:08 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: The drought will come back in full-force in a few months. I'm hoping not. We've had around 10 inches of rain in SE TX since December. But we're still holding our breath that the rains will be enough when the heat hits. Hopefully this winter's temps aren't a sign of things to come. Not much of a break on that front. Broke another high temp record yesterday at 80. Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3887

507. AtHomeInTX 4:11 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting Ameister12: You're probably right. They really need a soaker of a tropical storm. Not a troll like Don. Sigh. That's true too. Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3887

508. TropicalAnalystwx13 4:12 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting AtHomeInTX: I'm hoping not. We've had around 10 inches of rain in SE TX since December. But we're still holding our breath that the rains will be enough when the heat hits. Hopefully this winter's temps aren't a sign of things to come. Not much of a break on that front. Broke another high temp record yesterday at 80. This is just through April. :\ Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25330

509. CybrTeddy 4:17 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Find it...but when you do, don't tell anybody. :D I honestly don't know how I missed it the first time. ... is that.. Grothar? Can't be.. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20260

510. TropicalAnalystwx13 4:21 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy: ... is that.. Grothar? Can't be.. I would be afraid...very afraid. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25330

511. DavidHOUTX 4:27 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: This is just through April. :\ The temps have been accurate but December and January looked just like that for the precipitation and it has been the complete opposite. Houston is about to get another round of nice rain and the bayous here are pretty high if not bank full at the moment. We will take all we can for the moment! Hoping this pattern can continue through March and April. Especially if we are in for another summer like the last one. Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 292

512. Grothar 4:50 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy: ... is that.. Grothar? Can't be.. GET OUT OF MY LIVING ROOM!!!!! I told you all I couldn't be photographed. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19549

513. KoritheMan 4:52 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
I would think that the Texas drought will return over the spring, then lift over the summer as we phase into neutral. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 15463

514. Grothar 4:59 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19549

515. auburn (Mod) 5:15 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
RIP Andy Gabrielson Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 539 Comments: 46696

516. sunlinepr 5:34 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

517. sunlinepr 5:37 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
UK town search for source of mysterious radio interferences Posted on February 5, 2012 February 5, 2012 – UNITED KINGDOM – Residents living near an Army barracks say their village green became a mysterious ‘Bermuda Triangle’ after their remote-control car door locks were jammed by radio interference. Motorists in Waterbeach, Cambridgeshire, say the locks on their cars refused to work when they parked at the village green. Modern push-button ignitions were also scuppered by the unknown, eerie interference. Some members of the group had to get lifts home and return with manual overrides. The following day the group, including professional scientists, returned with sophisticated monitoring equipment and found ‘ultra-high frequency bands’ was causing the block. Professional scientist Wojciech Piotrowski said the mystery frequency was likely to have been caused by the military, but admitted a faulty TV or fridge could also be to blame. He said: ‘A strong electrical interference source was radiating radio signals in one of the ultra-high frequency bands at the southern end of the Green. ‘The primary user of this band is the military. However, by Sunday, the problem seemed to have gone. ‘It was really weird but being the radio hams that we are, we sort of knew it was an interference of some kind. The amateur radio group believe wireless devices in nearby homes, such as thermostats, remote light dimmers, switches and energy meters will have been affected. An engineer was today investigating the interference after the group reported their findings to communications watchdog, Ofcom. A spokesperson for the Army, which operates Waterbeach Barracks, said: ‘We are not aware of anything happening at Waterbeach that would have caused anything remotely like that.’ This is the first time an English village has experienced mysterious electronics failures. Last month residents of Kingsclere in Hampshire, near the world-famous Watership Down Hill, were baffled when their heating, showers, doorbells and car remote locks refused to work. They spent much of the festive season without heating and lights after the failure of household systems that rely on digital technology. –Daily Mail Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

518. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 6:59 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting AstroHurricane001: This is starting to creep me out. A magnitude 5.7 earthquake offshore Vancouver Island, and a magnitude 4.3 offshore southern Oregon, all within the span of 31 minutes. Let's look back at the earthquake events I've deemed "significant" in the Cascadia region. September 1, 2009 - August 31, 2010: 2 earthquakes M6.5 or higher, both offshore northern California. September 1, 2010 - August 31, 2011: 4 earthquakes, including 2 above M4.5 (both offshore Oregon). September 1, 2011 - December 31, 2011: 4 earthquakes, including 2 above M4.5 (a M6.4 offshore Vancouver Island, and a ~M5 quake offshore southern Oregon). January 1, 2012 - February 5 (early morning), 2012: 3 earthquakes, including 2 above M4.5 (one south of Queen Charlotte Islands, another offshore Vancouver Island). there is a couple of bigger ones than that coming Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40636

519. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 7:02 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40636

520. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 7:04 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40636

521. AussieStorm 7:15 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Just curious, does anyone here have a program called AVN Retriever 1.12? If you don't you can download it here This is what AVN Retriever will give you, It's mainly for Australia but can be customized to any location. The GOM on AVN retriever is Long -99 Lat 15. Lng Wdth and Lat Hght can be set to any number, I have it set at 25 which gives me this. Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13357

522. Boco12 7:36 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
20 inches of snow in the backyard now. Finally subsided today. Member Since: July 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

523. HadesGodWyvern 9:10 AM GMT on February 05, 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F 18:00 PM FST February 5 2012 ==================================== At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 10F (992 hPa) located at 22.8S 179.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 12 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation. Organization has improved in the last 24 hours. Convection increased in past 24 hours but confined to northeast semi-circle. Low level circulation center has become obscured and difficult to locate in past 3 hours. Outflow good to north through east to southeast but restricted elsewhere. System lies along a surface trough and beneath an upper diffluent region. The depression is being steered eastwards by westerly deep layer mean flow into a moderately sheared environment. Sea surface temperature around 28C Most global models have picked up this system and are moving it east southeastwards with some intensification. Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate. The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC.. Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36688

524. Tropicsweatherpr 1:09 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Good morning to all. Only 116 days left to June 1rst. Time goes fast and without noticing,we will be immersed into the Atlantic Hurricane season. My condolenses to Andy's family. Rest in peace. Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8227

525. WeatherNerdPR 1:16 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Good Morning. ...the heck is this thing? Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

526. AussieStorm 1:49 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Region Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN For 10:45 pm EST on Sunday 5 February 2012 At 10 pm EST Sunday, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Category 2) with central pressure 978 hPa was located over the Coral sea near latitude 17.0 south longitude 154.9 east, which is about 760 km northeast of Mackay and 890 km east northeast of Townsville. The cyclone is moving east at about 22 kilometres per hour and should gradually intensify over the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine is not expected to directly affect the Queensland coast. The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5 am EST. Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13357

527. Patrap 2:19 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

528. RTSplayer 2:22 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Got some weak banding on key west radar, but clearly that can't see anywhere near far enough to see the strongest storms in the Yucatan channel. Actually looks less organized than 12 hours ago, so it's probably got no chance anyway. Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

529. SPLbeater 2:22 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Hey all. up early so i got a few mins 'fore church. looks like an LLC in construction... 0.o Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3954

530. LargoFl 2:24 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater: Hey all. up early so i got a few mins 'fore church. looks like an LLC in construction... 0.o thanks for this, guess we might get some rain today, 30% chance the weather guy says Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

531. Skyepony (Mod) 2:25 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
10P JASMINE Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29354

532. BahaHurican 2:27 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Mornin', ever'body... R we tracking this??? Also, anybody from Cayman been on since yesterday morning? Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17673

533. WeatherNerdPR 2:30 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

534. ChillinInTheKeys 2:32 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Cuba mosaic radar loop. Link Very tropical weather here today. Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 448

535. WeatherNerdPR 2:32 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer: Got some weak banding on key west radar, but clearly that can't see anywhere near far enough to see the strongest storms in the Yucatan channel. Actually looks less organized than 12 hours ago, so it's probably got no chance anyway. Here you go: Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

536. Patrap 2:34 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
<------- is off to install a Drop ceiling at a Honey Baked Ham store. Super cash for Work on Super Sunday. Enjoy the GOM/Caribbean Novelty player's Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

537. BahaHurican 2:34 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting kmanislander: Hi there Very interesting for the "off season" but not a drop of rain in Grand Cayman today, at least not where I live. All high cloud stuff,or all bark and no bite Would have thought u would have seen whatever there was to see at ur end... Looks like whatever's there is lifting to ur west, meaning we r more likely to get some effects from it today. It's been pretty much overcast and still here this a.m., but I expect that'll change... Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17673

538. HurrikanEB 2:35 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
If i had to pick, i'd probably buy the ECMWF solution, but at least the models haven't completely given up on winter... although, i do think that one of them predicted a phantom snowstorm last weekend or the weekend before :/ Albany, NY: THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR REGION WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER DIVERGING SOLUTIONS ARE NOTED BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS INITIALLY STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA AND DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG IT. THE ECMWF HOWEVER...HAS THE FRONT CLEANLY SWEEPING THROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN BY SATURDAY. SINCE THIS LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS THE FIRST TO LATCH ONTO THIS SOLUTION WILL NOT BUY IN JUST YET...BUT A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATING DECENT QPF SO WILL AT LEAST MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...ON SATURDAY THE GFS HAS THE SURFACE CYCLONE PASSING JUST EAST OF CAPE COD AS IT DEEPENS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF HAS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THIS TIME SO THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. Member Since: May 2, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1268

539. BahaHurican 2:38 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting Skyepony: 10P JASMINE Yikes. And it's supposed to get stronger as it approaches central Fiji... This is one to watch. Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17673

540. HadesGodWyvern 2:38 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F 0:00 AM FST February 6 2012 ==================================== A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAIN IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP. A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAIN IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA LAND AREAS. At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 10F (991 hPa) located at 23.4S 178.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 15 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. Organization has not improved much past 24 hours. Convection increased in past 24 hours but confined to eastern semi-circle. Low level circulation center difficult to locate. Outflow good to north and east but restricted elsewhere. System lies just to the east of an eastward moving upper trough and beneath an upper diffluent region. The system lies under a high sheared environment and is being steered eastwards. Sea surface temperature around 27C. Most global models have picked up this system and are moving it east-southeastwards with slight intensification. Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate. The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC.. Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36688

541. TampaSpin 2:45 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
My first Tropical Update of the Year.....its Freaking February LOL Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

542. Patrap 2:47 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
A Warming Globe will do dat TS. Go Giants!!! Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

543. WxGeekVA 2:48 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting WeatherNerdPR: Here you go: Looks to be a spin developing just ENE of the tip of the Yucatan.... Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3323

544. TampaSpin 2:49 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting Patrap: A Warming Globe will do dat TS. Go Giants YEPPERS....i like the Giants also.... Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

545. WxGeekVA 2:49 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
We have 850MB Vort!!! And the shear has dropped considerably since yesterday! Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3323

546. TampaSpin 2:50 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Gotta run get some Party stuff....You all have a great day and God Bless! Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

547. WeatherNerdPR 2:50 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA: Looks to be a spin developing just ENE of the tip of the Yucatan.... Whatever it is, it's still very broad. Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

548. HadesGodWyvern 2:51 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
TC JASMINE 983HPA NEAR 17.2S 154.1E TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F 992HPA NEAR 22.8S 179.9W LOW 994HPA NEAR 33.0S 161.0E --------- pretty active surface map Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36688

549. WeatherNerdPR 2:51 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA: We have 850MB Vort!!! ...feels like hurricane season. Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

550. WxGeekVA 2:53 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Quoting WeatherNerdPR: ...feels like hurricane season. If I didn't know better I would say this looks like a soon-to-be subtropical depression.... Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3323

551. RTSplayer 2:57 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
535: Hey, could you give the link for that graphic please? That is awesome. I've never seen a composite like that for the Caribbean... Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

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