Six more weeks of non-winter

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:35 PM GMT on February 02, 2012

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Here Ye! Here Ye! Here Ye!

On Gobbler's Knob on this magnificent Groundhog Day, February 2nd, 2012
Punxsutawney Phil, the Seer of Seers, the Prognosticator of all Prognosticators,
was summoned from his burrow in the old oak stump
by the tap of President Bill Deedly.

He greeted his handlers, John Griffiths and Ron Ploucha.

After casting an appreciative glance towards thousands of his faithful followers,
Phil proclaimed
As I look at the crowd on Gobbler's Knob
Many shadows do I see
So six more weeks of winter it must be!


That's the official word posted at groundhog.org from Punxsutawney Pennsylvania's famous prognosticating rodent, Punxsutawney Phil, who saw his shadow this morning. According to tradition, this means that a solid six more weeks of winter can be expected across the U.S. When the sun rises in San Francisco, this morning, wunderground's Alan T. Groundhog can give us an additional shadow-based forecast for the coming winter (video here.)


Figure 1. Wunderground's prognosticating groundhog, Alan T. Groundhog, prepares to go in front of the blue screen with wunderground meteorologist Jessica Parker.

How did this this crazy tradition start?
It all started in Europe, centuries ago, when February 2 was a holiday called Candlemas. On Candlemas, people prayed for mild weather for the remainder of winter. The superstition arose that if a hibernating badger woke up and saw its shadow on Candlemas, there would be six more weeks of severe winter weather. When Europeans settled the New World, they didn't find any badgers. So, they decided to use native groundhogs (aka the woodchuck, land beaver, or whistlepig) as their prognosticating rodent.

What winter? The non-winter of 2011 - 2012
Considering winter hasn't really arrived in the lower 48 states yet, I'm not sure how much validity we can give to fearless Phil's forecast. Here in Michigan, like in most of the U.S., we've basically had three straight months of November weather. There have been no major snowstorms, and frequent sunny days with highs in the 50s--twenty five degrees above average. January 2012 is in the weather record books as the 3rd least-snowy January for the contiguous U.S. since snow records began in 1966, the Rutgers Snow Lab reported yesterday, and December 2011 ranked as the 11th least snowy December on record. With the latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model showing a huge ridge of high pressure dominating the Western U.S. and no major snowstorms over the U.S. through mid-February, the winter of 2011 - 2012 has a chance to end up as the second least snowy winter in U.S. history. Temperature statistics for January will not be available until next week, but I expect the month will end up being a top-five warmest January, with temperatures about 4 - 5°F above average. We won't be able to beat the 8.7°F above-average temperature posted during the warmest January in U.S. history, which occurred in 2006. If U.S. temperatures remain 4 - 5°F above average during February, the winter of 2011 - 2012 will be the warmest in U.S. history. The five warmest U.S. winters since record keeping began in 1895 have all occurred since 1992, with the winter of 1999 - 2000 holding the record for warmest winter. Winter average temperature in the contiguous U.S. has been increasing by about 1.6°F per century since 1895 (Figure 2.)


Figure 2. Winter temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during the period 1895 - 2011 increased at a rate of about 1.6°F per century. The warmest winter was 1999 - 2000, and the coldest was 1978 - 1979. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

What's going on?
This January's remarkable warmth and lack of snow contrasts starkly with what happened during the previous two winters. January 2011 was the 5th snowiest and 35th coldest in U.S. history, and January 2010 was the 7th snowiest and 55th coldest. Wunderground meteorologist Angela Fritz had this to say in her blog post yesterday about what's been going on this winter: In December, we were reporting that the lower-48's unseasonably warm weather and lack of snow was due to a particularly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) index. The Arctic Oscillation is a measure of the jet stream's strength. A positive AO is a stronger than average jet stream, and it tends to keep cold air bottled up in the Arctic. During a positive AO, the Arctic is colder than average, and the mid-latitudes are warmer than average. In December and early January, the AO was positive. In mid-January, the AO went negative, which we expect to have the opposite impact. A weak jet steam means cold, Arctic air can escape to the south, and that's what we've been seeing in Europe this week. This cold air has yet to spill southwards into the Eastern U.S. like it usually does during a negative-AO period, since the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)--the component of the AO over the North Atlantic--has not gone negative, and is close to normal right now. However, the long-range GFS model is predicting a modest cold air outbreak will occur over the Eastern U.S. around February 15.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting hydrus:
Your the same age as my Dad..He has some cool stories from way back..:)

There are a lot of stories that can be told. The problem is that there is no one around any more to listen.
Jesse
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Quoting TheoJesse:

Grothar
I had no idea you were ancient.
Jesse


Theda Bara was my first pinup picture.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26037
Quoting TheoJesse:

Grothar
I had no idea you were ancient.
Jesse
Are you kidding.? I was goin easy on him. He was here before everything.....and I mean everything..stars, planets, nova,s
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21050
Quoting hydrus:
Good evening ancient one.


Greetings. I see we may some activity in the Gulf. I posted an image earlier.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26037
Quoting Grothar:


Not even close. :)

Grothar
I had no idea you were ancient.
Jesse
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Quoting Grothar:


Not even close. :)
Good evening ancient one.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21050
Quoting TheoJesse:

It is probably safe to say that I am in the Grothar range. haha I am 69 years old.
Jesse
Your the same age as my Dad..He has some cool stories from way back..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21050
Quoting TheoJesse:

It is probably safe to say that I am in the Grothar range. haha I am 69 years old.
Jesse


Not even close. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26037
Quoting hydrus:
If you are older than Pat, you have been here a mighty long time..:)....My parents warned me how fast time goes by. They were right.

It is probably safe to say that I am in the Grothar range. haha I am 69 years old.
Jesse
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Quoting SPLbeater:


Notice the line just barely SSW of Amarillo explode in 15 minutes to a potent line of thunderstorms...


Yeah, seeing it growing like that was one of the reasons I posted it.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I believe its safe to say that the accuracy of any DATA outside the last 20 years and even the temperatures are believed flawed by many within the last 20 years by relocation's of gauges.

Tampa
You're right.
I remember many comments you made. It's the sun.
Add water as the storage medium of heat and you have a go.
Jesse
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Quoting TheoJesse:
Patrap
Keep these important facts is mind. I am an older person than you, and I am an Alabama Redneck.
You're right about the lag times, but that was one of the dead end streets I drove down.
Jesse
If you are older than Pat, you have been here a mighty long time..:)....My parents warned me how fast time goes by. They were right.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21050
Quoting jamesrainier:


Notice the line just barely SSW of Amarillo explode in 15 minutes to a potent line of thunderstorms...
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
WTPS21 PGTW 022000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.0S 145.8E TO 19.5S 154.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR DATA AT 021930Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED 17.1S 146.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.



Link
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
L.A.S.E.R.S. MANIFESTO:
To every man, woman & child we want an end to the We want an end to status symbols dictating our worth as individuals
We want a meaningful and universal education system
We want substance in the place of popularity
We will not compromise who we are to be accepted by the crowd
We want the invisible walls that separate by wealth, We want to think our own thoughts
We will be responsible for our environment
We want clarity & truth from our elected officials or they should move aside
We want love not lies
We want an end to all wars foreign & domestic violence
We want an end to the processed culture of exploitation, over-consumption & waste
We want knowledge, understanding & peace
We will not lose because we are not losers, we are lasers!
Lasers are the opposite of losers
Lasers are shining beams of light that burn through the darkness of ignorance
Lasers shed light on injustice and inequality
Losers stand by and let things happen
Lasers act and shape their own destinies
Lasers find meaning and direction in the mysteries all around them
Lasers stand for love and compassion
Lasers stand for peace
Lasers stand for progression
Lasers are Revolutionary
Lasers are the future


Love Always Shines Every time Remember 2 Smile
-Lupe Fiasco
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3470
Quoting nymore:
Remember what Theo claimed you said goes against all data and observations, well you may want to have a chat with NOAA as their (blue temperature) graph seems to back him up and not you. Hoisted with your own petard. LOL


I believe its safe to say that the accuracy of any DATA outside the last 20 years and even the temperatures are believed flawed by many within the last 20 years by relocation's of gauges.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Patrap
Keep these important facts is mind. I am an older person than you, and I am an Alabama Redneck.
You're right about the lag times, but that was one of the dead end streets I drove down.
Jesse
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:


you should blog on this system...would be nice for a tropical blog to read besides my own:)
I might one day. I post when I can. I am busy taking care of family and hounds..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21050
Quoting Patrap:
Hard to get thru the server to someone,though some have tried. : )

That's gonna go against all the Data and Physical obs noted for the period you mention.

But hey, present away.

I'm always open to new ideas, data, or theory on most
related topics, as are many others Im' sure.

Dr. Masters usually will chime in on interesting matters. So maybe he will see this and add something as well.

Quoting Patrap:
Here is the NOAA page on indicators with the Solar Cycle graphing and data as well as other.

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/indicators


Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.
Remember what Theo claimed you said goes against all data and observations, well you may want to have a chat with NOAA as their (blue temperature) graph seems to back him up and not you. Hoisted with your own petard. LOL
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Is it just me, or is the Groundhog in the picture above in front of a shower curtain? Hmmmmm....


looks to me like a big blank sheet of blue for photos...like a green screen...but blue :D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Is it just me, or is the Groundhog in the picture above in front of a shower curtain? Hmmmmm....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here is the NOAA page on indicators with the Solar Cycle graphing and data as well as other.

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/indicators


Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
Im more a Baker than a climatologist anyday Jesse, but that a interesting take.

One thing I can relate is like when we hit Dec 21,or the Summer Solstice, we see in Earths temps a seasonal Lag by 40-50 days or more, depending on Latitude.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
Quoting Neapolitan:
You won't get "beaten up" at ll--though you might be asked to provide reasoning for your statement, as it goes against all observed science.

Nea you're right. Check my last comment. No. 173
Jesse
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Patrap
I've been working on this about three years. About 3000 hours staring at this computer. Three blind mice, one with no feet left to run. Second keyboard. It was all dead end streets until about 6 months ago. I was sitting here trying to come up with the next street to drive down when the analogy dawned on me. It's simple and can be done in your kitchen. Ingredients: Pot or tea kettle, cooking thermometer, water. A gas stove would be better than an electric because of reaction time.
Simulate the 11 year solar cycle with the heat control on the stove. (I've seen that posted here several times but I don't know where to find it.) You will find that the water temperature will continue to rise well after you have passed your maximum temperature excursion. Once the radiated cooling is more than the amount of heat you are applying, the water will start to cool down.
Does this make sense?
Jesse
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Mexico reeling from climate extremes- millions imperiled by drought and cold
Posted on February 2, 2012
February 2, 2012 – MEXICO CITY — A drought that a government official called the most severe Mexico had ever faced has left two million people without access to water and, coupled with a cold snap, has devastated cropland in nearly half of the country. Reports that the Tarahumara were killing themselves in despair over starvation, later proven false, spurred residents of Mexico City to collect food and clothing donations. The government in the past week has authorized $2.63 billion in aid, including potable water, food and temporary jobs for the most affected areas, rural communities in 19 of Mexico’s 31 states. But officials warned that no serious relief was expected for at least another five months, when the rainy season typically begins in earnest. While the authorities say they expect the situation to worsen, one of the five worst-affected states, Zacatecas, got a reprieve on Sunday. Heriberto Félix Guerra, head of the Ministry of Social Development, saw the rain, the first in 17 months, as a guardedly reassuring sign. Among the more seriously affected communities are tribal areas of the Tarahumara indigenous community in the Sierra Madre, in the north. Known for endurance running and self-reliance, the Tarahumara are among Mexico’s poorest citizens.
When false reports of a mass suicide brought on by hunger surfaced recently, journalists and aid organizations poured in to shed light on the situation. “I think it has really become extreme poverty,” says Isaac Oxenhaut, national aid coordinator for the Mexican Red Cross. Mr. Oxenhaut recently visited the Indian communities where, he said, the land was too dry to grow any crops the Tarahumara usually depend on for their livelihood. “They don’t have anywhere to harvest absolutely anything,” he added. Nearly 7 percent of the country’s agricultural land, mostly in the north and center, has suffered total loss, according to Victor Celaya del Toro, director of development studies at the Agriculture Ministry. The drought, which has been compounded by freezing temperatures, has already pushed up the cost of some produce, including corn and beans. The governor of the Central Bank, Agustín Carstens, speaking last week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, cautioned that it might cause inflation to rise later this year. But government officials have said they do not expect the price of exports to be affected. Some of the most devastated areas are hard to reach, slowing the flow of aid to a trickle. The Red Cross is sending 70-pound sacks of rice, beans and sugar, as well as winter clothing. “A cargo bus will not fit,” Mr. Oxenhaut said. “You have to do it with four-wheel drives or donkeys, or the people who take it on their backs.” –NY Times


Isolated winter: Western Canada struggling with record snow-fall as rest of country goes dry
Posted on February 2, 2012
February 2, 2012 – CANADA – Snowfall and snow levels are reaching record levels in Alberta and British Columbia in Western Canada. While many other parts of North America are still struggling to fully open all their lifts and runs for winter2011-12 during an unusually dry winter, the West of Canada has been deluged fairly consistently since last autumn. “This month goes down as one of the snowiest January’s on record. There is unbelievable snow conditions at both Fernie and Kicking Horse with total snowfall at both over 19 feet now. Today alone, Fernie has seen over a foot overnight!!” said an excited Matt Mosteller of Resorts of the Canadian Rockies which runs the two centres. Meanwhile a little to the east and north, over the border in Alberta, with over three months left to go in the ski season, Marmot Basin near Jasper has already received over 12 feet (372 cm) of snowfall which is 93% of its annual average. If the next three months produce even typical amounts of snowfall, Marmot Basin will exceed its all time snowfall record of 529 cm set way back in 1965. Regardless of the numbers, skiers and snowboarders have been absolutely thrilled with snow conditions at Marmot Basin and, to some, it has come as a bit of a surprise, says the resort’s Brian Rode. “There is very little snow on the ground in Edmonton and when some people get to the mountain they are really surprised at how much snow we have. Marmot’s base elevation is very high so the rain that has fallen at lower elevations this winter has been all snow at Marmot,” added Rode. –Fast Track Ski


Where’s the snow? Snow has been missing in action for much of the U.S. the last couple months. But it’s not just snow. It’s practically the season that’s gone AWOL. “What winter?” asked Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. For the Lower 48, January was the third-least snowy on record, according to the Global Snow Lab at Rutgers University. Records for the amount of ground covered by snow go back to 1967. Last year, more than half the nation was covered in snow as a Groundhog Day blizzard barreled across the country, killing 36 people and causing $1.8 billion in damage. This year, less than a fifth of the country outside of Alaska has snow on the ground. Bismarck, N.D., has had one-fifth its normal snow, Boston a third. Buffalo is three feet below normal for snowfall this year. Midland, Texas, has had more snow this season than Minneapolis or Chicago. Forget snow. For much of the country there’s not even a nip in the air. On Tuesday, the last day in January, all but a handful of states had temperatures in the 50s or higher. In the nation’s capital, where temperatures flirted with the 70s, some cherry trees are already budding — weeks early. For the Northeast it’s one of the warmest and least snowy winters on record, with most of the region’s temperatures the last couple months averaging 5 degrees warmer than normal, according to the Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University. –Yahoo News


Prefecture of Japan pleads for help after being hit with record snow-fall
Posted on February 2, 2012
February 2, 2012 – JAPAN – The prefecture of Niigata, Japan, has asked for a dispatch of troops to help in the wake of record-setting snowfalls, according to reports on Wednesday. 3 people have died in the northern part of Japan from avalanches in Akita. The Ground Self-Defense Force of Japan was expected to send troops to the town of Uonuma, where a snow depth of 4.09 meters, or 13.4 feet, has reportedly built up. Fearing roof collapse under the weight of the deep snow, complicated by warming and the potential for rain, the local officials called for the troops to help clear roofs. Niigata is in western Honshu, which winter climate is notorious for its waves of heavy snow off the Sea of Japan during cold outbreaks. Western Honshu is home to some of the highest snowfalls anywhere on earth, even at relatively low elevation, as bitter northwesterly winds out of Siberia and northern China flow across the much warmer Sea of Japan. Uonuma itself is located about 120 miles, or nearly 200 km, northwest of Tokyo which, incidentally, the report also made mention of for its abnormally dry, clear weather this winter. The same weather pattern that delivers heavy snow on the western side of mountainous Honshu normally yields dry, clear weather at Tokyo. -Accuweather
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Hefty cell moving toward NE just north of Barger, TX...
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting hydrus:
No, not yet anyway. It should be interesting to watch tho..Models keep flip flopping with some really cold air pour down from extreme northern Canada. If this system were large enough, could cause some severe weather and flooding issues. Hope you are doing well Press..:)


you should blog on this system...would be nice for a tropical blog to read besides my own:)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
Quoting presslord:


if it does develop, you need to get credit for catching it and following it...Do you own stock in this thing?
No, not yet anyway. It should be interesting to watch tho..Models keep flip flopping with some really cold air pour down from extreme northern Canada. If this system were large enough, could cause some severe weather and flooding issues. Hope you are doing well Press..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21050
Quoting TheoJesse:
Patrap
It's quiet in here tonight. I have a question for you.
How badly would I get beaten up if I made the following statement? The earth transitioned from a warming phase to a cooling phase in November 2003.
You won't get "beaten up" at ll--though you might be asked to provide reasoning for your statement, as it goes against all observed science.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hard to get thru the server to someone,though some have tried. : )

That's gonna go against all the Data and Physical obs noted for the period you mention.

But hey, present away.

I'm always open to new ideas, data, or theory on most
related topics, as are many others Im' sure.

Dr. Masters usually will chime in on interesting matters. So maybe he will see this and add something as well.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
Patrap
It's quiet in here tonight. I have a question for you.
How badly would I get beaten up if I made the following statement? The earth transitioned from a warming phase to a cooling phase in November 2003.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:


This is the same kind of thing that was said 5 years ago. Then we had back to back winters that featured "Snowmageddon" and the "Snowpocalypse".


Exactly!

And comparing it to the tropics, it's like having 28 named storms in 2005, and then only 10 the following year. The trend may be going one way, but that doesn't mean we still wont have years that fall to the opposite extreme.

Also part of why i just try to brush it off when people complain about no snow this winter and about the point of even having groundhogs day anymore... it's all in the relm of possibility now.
Member Since: May 2, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1332
Alexandrine Ring Neck
Quoting barbamz:
O I forgot, last thing I originally wanted to share. You know we've got a population of already thousands of parakeets (ring-necked parrots) in the wildlife near Rhine River? They manage to survive because of the usually mild climate (and moreover, GW) and can handle even some cold days in winter. This week a parakeet was found on the balcony in my neighborhood, obviously injured. The bird (a female, therefore without ring around the neck) stayed the night in the livingroom under the heater. She's got a very healthy appetite, so she recovered somehow. Next day we took her to the animal shelter. Probably the best for her in respect to the forthcoming even colder nights!


The wild parrot on an adjacent balcony

Ring-necked parrots take over Germany and southern England

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Moss in Audubon Park Yesterday afternoon, near the Zoo.

The Grass on the Golf Course has greened there to 70 percent coverage easily the last 3 weeks.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
Holy moss!

Humble moss helped to cool Earth and spurred on life
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6011
Quoting hydrus:
Tell ya what, if this comes to fruition, we will have another one for the record books...Latest GFS run 168 hours..


if it does develop, you need to get credit for catching it and following it...Do you own stock in this thing?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10485
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential

Sea Surface Anomalies

Note the Cutoff Eddy Ring in the Western GOM and its size this Winter





..compared to last year at this time.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
Atlantic SST's...

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Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
Quoting biloxibob:


You have a glitch in your post...
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3470
Supposed to get a foot or two of snow, but nothing yet. Hopefully the roads wont be too bad tomorrow.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Good to know. I didn't know you wore glasses!
I had to let my glasses soak in some hot water real quick.They had spots on em.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16897
151. biloxibob
1:33 AM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting biloxibob:




Your Comment:



Rich TextQ uoting Patrap:
Depth and breadth of the 26C Thermoline


Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential



/ >




 



Submit Cancel




Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 138
150. biloxibob
1:32 AM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
Depth and breadth of the 26C Thermoline


Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential





Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 138
149. WeatherNerdPR
1:31 AM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't have mah glasses on.So I may miss a few words.I'm almost bling.I'm use to the strong presription in my glasses.

Good to know. I didn't know you wore glasses!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5672
148. washingtonian115
1:27 AM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

*the
I don't have mah glasses on.So I may miss a few words.I'm almost bling.I'm use to the strong presription in my glasses.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16897

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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