Six more weeks of non-winter

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:35 PM GMT on February 02, 2012

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Here Ye! Here Ye! Here Ye!

On Gobbler's Knob on this magnificent Groundhog Day, February 2nd, 2012
Punxsutawney Phil, the Seer of Seers, the Prognosticator of all Prognosticators,
was summoned from his burrow in the old oak stump
by the tap of President Bill Deedly.

He greeted his handlers, John Griffiths and Ron Ploucha.

After casting an appreciative glance towards thousands of his faithful followers,
Phil proclaimed
As I look at the crowd on Gobbler's Knob
Many shadows do I see
So six more weeks of winter it must be!


That's the official word posted at groundhog.org from Punxsutawney Pennsylvania's famous prognosticating rodent, Punxsutawney Phil, who saw his shadow this morning. According to tradition, this means that a solid six more weeks of winter can be expected across the U.S. When the sun rises in San Francisco, this morning, wunderground's Alan T. Groundhog can give us an additional shadow-based forecast for the coming winter (video here.)


Figure 1. Wunderground's prognosticating groundhog, Alan T. Groundhog, prepares to go in front of the blue screen with wunderground meteorologist Jessica Parker.

How did this this crazy tradition start?
It all started in Europe, centuries ago, when February 2 was a holiday called Candlemas. On Candlemas, people prayed for mild weather for the remainder of winter. The superstition arose that if a hibernating badger woke up and saw its shadow on Candlemas, there would be six more weeks of severe winter weather. When Europeans settled the New World, they didn't find any badgers. So, they decided to use native groundhogs (aka the woodchuck, land beaver, or whistlepig) as their prognosticating rodent.

What winter? The non-winter of 2011 - 2012
Considering winter hasn't really arrived in the lower 48 states yet, I'm not sure how much validity we can give to fearless Phil's forecast. Here in Michigan, like in most of the U.S., we've basically had three straight months of November weather. There have been no major snowstorms, and frequent sunny days with highs in the 50s--twenty five degrees above average. January 2012 is in the weather record books as the 3rd least-snowy January for the contiguous U.S. since snow records began in 1966, the Rutgers Snow Lab reported yesterday, and December 2011 ranked as the 11th least snowy December on record. With the latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model showing a huge ridge of high pressure dominating the Western U.S. and no major snowstorms over the U.S. through mid-February, the winter of 2011 - 2012 has a chance to end up as the second least snowy winter in U.S. history. Temperature statistics for January will not be available until next week, but I expect the month will end up being a top-five warmest January, with temperatures about 4 - 5°F above average. We won't be able to beat the 8.7°F above-average temperature posted during the warmest January in U.S. history, which occurred in 2006. If U.S. temperatures remain 4 - 5°F above average during February, the winter of 2011 - 2012 will be the warmest in U.S. history. The five warmest U.S. winters since record keeping began in 1895 have all occurred since 1992, with the winter of 1999 - 2000 holding the record for warmest winter. Winter average temperature in the contiguous U.S. has been increasing by about 1.6°F per century since 1895 (Figure 2.)


Figure 2. Winter temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during the period 1895 - 2011 increased at a rate of about 1.6°F per century. The warmest winter was 1999 - 2000, and the coldest was 1978 - 1979. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

What's going on?
This January's remarkable warmth and lack of snow contrasts starkly with what happened during the previous two winters. January 2011 was the 5th snowiest and 35th coldest in U.S. history, and January 2010 was the 7th snowiest and 55th coldest. Wunderground meteorologist Angela Fritz had this to say in her blog post yesterday about what's been going on this winter: In December, we were reporting that the lower-48's unseasonably warm weather and lack of snow was due to a particularly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) index. The Arctic Oscillation is a measure of the jet stream's strength. A positive AO is a stronger than average jet stream, and it tends to keep cold air bottled up in the Arctic. During a positive AO, the Arctic is colder than average, and the mid-latitudes are warmer than average. In December and early January, the AO was positive. In mid-January, the AO went negative, which we expect to have the opposite impact. A weak jet steam means cold, Arctic air can escape to the south, and that's what we've been seeing in Europe this week. This cold air has yet to spill southwards into the Eastern U.S. like it usually does during a negative-AO period, since the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)--the component of the AO over the North Atlantic--has not gone negative, and is close to normal right now. However, the long-range GFS model is predicting a modest cold air outbreak will occur over the Eastern U.S. around February 15.

Jeff Masters

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298. ScottLincoln
6:25 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting TheoJesse:

Scott
I have all the math and a graph developed for this.
The problem is that I have no idea how to post this info.


I'm sure many of us will be interested to see once you figure it out.

Quoting TheoJesse:
Patrap
Simulate the 11 year solar cycle with the heat control on the stove. (I've seen that posted here several times but I don't know where to find it.) You will find that the water temperature will continue to rise well after you have passed your maximum temperature excursion. Once the radiated cooling is more than the amount of heat you are applying, the water will start to cool down.
Does this make sense?
Jesse


Many different independent groups have worked up energy balances of the earth's climate system. If your suggestion is that we are still warming up because of a previous solar cycle, then we would have discovered an energy imbalance (more incoming solar energy than outgoing energy). Also, different from your in-house experiment, the earth has had the same heating source (and its associated cycle) for some time, and thus has been at near-equilibrium. Studies have shown than the lag from the solar cycle variations is less than one solar cycle, on the order of 1-5yrs (I think ~2yrs is considered the best estimate), so energy from the cycle would not really compound directly, but instead of inertia of the climate system.

Ironically enough, scientists have discovered an energy imbalance, but it has occurred at the exact wavelengths that greenhouse gases absorb/re-emit. This has been caused by an increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere; greenhouse gases that have been traced to fossil fuels. This energy imbalance has put more energy into the climate system than has yet been observed with air/ocean/ice temperatures, so more warming is in the pipeline from climate inertia.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3238
297. aspectre
4:30 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
New Blog
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
296. IceCoast
4:08 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
My nephews in Littleton are avid snowboarders, so they're very excited about the snow (and playing hooky today). Unfortunately, it won't be around long, at least not in town; highs are expected to be above freezing every day for the next week-and-a-half beginning with Sunday, and by next weekend it'll be back around 50 or so. I told them to enjoy it while they can...


Would of loved to go riding today, but had class in the morning. (Hey, at least it was a meteorology class!) Im fine with it warming up in the Denver area as long as it snows in the mountains, which hasn't been happening. Most of the major resorts got snubbed again with this storm, as the large majority of the snow is falling east of the Continental Divide with the upslope flow.

Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
295. islander101010
4:04 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Very warm winter it has been.
yet there was a cold break in late oct that was memorable north fl.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4892
294. aspectre
3:52 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
262 FormerAussie "Where did Punxutawney Phil's hillock get its name?"

Gobbler is an American nickname for turkey. Gobblers Knob : Turkey Hill
Near as I can tell, turkeys have been on the land as far back as people can remember.

And yeah, I do know that Brits had great fun misinterpreting "Free Willy", 'fanny pack', 'beach bum', etc
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
293. Neapolitan
3:52 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting IceCoast:
Well it certainly feels like winter this AM in Denver! Just measured 11 inches outside, with moderate snow still falling and 1/2mi visibilities. Locations in the foothills have already seen 15-20+ and it's not suposse to stop snowing until tomorrow morning. Bring it on!

My nephews in Littleton are avid snowboarders, so they're very excited about the snow (and playing hooky today). Unfortunately, it won't be around long, at least not in town; highs are expected to be above freezing every day for the next week-and-a-half beginning with Sunday, and by next weekend it'll be back around 50 or so. I told them to enjoy it while they can...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13613
292. Bogon
3:52 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:

Maybe they thought they were choosing the lesser of two weasels.


Yep, that explains it. :oD
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3748
291. NEwxguy
3:51 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:

Maybe they thought they were choosing the lesser of two weasels.


Drum roll and crashing cymbals!!!!
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 886 Comments: 15950
290. IceCoast
3:40 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Well it certainly feels like winter this AM in Denver! Just measured 11 inches outside, with moderate snow still falling and 1/2mi visibilities. Locations in the foothills have already seen 15-20+ and it's not suposse to stop snowing until tomorrow morning. Bring it on!

Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
289. hydrus
3:37 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
The GFS still has the low in the gulf.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21782
288. ShenValleyFlyFish
3:35 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting Bogon:
One wonders at the taxonomically challenged European settlers who established the groundhog day tradition here in North America. Maybe they decided that any burrowing animal would do. While the groundhog is a rodent, the badger is a weasel.

Maybe they thought they were choosing the lesser of two weasels.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
287. WxGeekVA
3:34 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting flsky:
Just curious - why is this posted on a weather blog?



Because when I saw it I thought I would share it with a group of people who would do well to live by the items outlined in that manifesto. I don't see any harm in it, and last I checked it had a +3 on it, so apparently it isn't a negative thing that people hate.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
286. fireflymom
3:24 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
282. flsky
3:21 PM GMT on February 03, 2012


+0



















Just curious - why is this posted on a weather blog?
Perhaps they are attempting to influence the Weather?
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
285. StormTracker2K
3:24 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
And the heat goes on...though not quite as strong (thankfully): The following maps from HAMweather show low temperature anomalies forecast for the next five days across the continental U.S.. While most areas will continue to see nighttime temps above normal, most of the 20-degree plus anomalies fade a bit by Monday:

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm

img
src="http://contours.hamweather.net/contours/640x 480/departures/us_tempdepartures_lows_day5_i1_poin ts.png" alt="Warm" style="width: 320px; height: 240px; max-width: 501px;">


Very warm winter it has been.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
284. Bogon
3:23 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
One wonders at the taxonomically challenged European settlers who established the groundhog day tradition here in North America. Maybe they decided that any burrowing animal would do. While the groundhog is a rodent, the badger is a weasel.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3748
283. LargoFl
3:23 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting jamesrainier:
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
828 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CST

* AT 823 AM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH
FLOODING WAS OCCURRING AT FM-787 IN THE TARKINGTON PRAIRIE AREA.
RAINFALL OF 9.3 INCHES WAS REPORTED IN ACE NEAR FM-2610.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE HALF INCH CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 1030 AM CST.

* COMMUNITIES NEAR AND SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING
INCLUDE...SHEPHERD...SEGNO...ROMAYOR...AND TARKINGTON PRAIRIE.
be careful over there, tornado's and flooding rains, heed the warnings folks, be safe
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41002
282. flsky
3:21 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Just curious - why is this posted on a weather blog?

Quoting WxGeekVA:
L.A.S.E.R.S. MANIFESTO:
To every man, woman & child we want an end to the We want an end to status symbols dictating our worth as individuals
We want a meaningful and universal education system
We want substance in the place of popularity
We will not compromise who we are to be accepted by the crowd
We want the invisible walls that separate by wealth, We want to think our own thoughts
We will be responsible for our environment
We want clarity & truth from our elected officials or they should move aside
We want love not lies
We want an end to all wars foreign & domestic violence
We want an end to the processed culture of exploitation, over-consumption & waste
We want knowledge, understanding & peace
We will not lose because we are not losers, we are lasers!
Lasers are the opposite of losers
Lasers are shining beams of light that burn through the darkness of ignorance
Lasers shed light on injustice and inequality
Losers stand by and let things happen
Lasers act and shape their own destinies
Lasers find meaning and direction in the mysteries all around them
Lasers stand for love and compassion
Lasers stand for peace
Lasers stand for progression
Lasers are Revolutionary
Lasers are the future


Love Always Shines Every time Remember 2 Smile
-Lupe Fiasco
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2047
281. Neapolitan
3:10 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
And the heat goes on...though not quite as strong (thankfully): The following maps from HAMweather show low temperature anomalies forecast for the next five days across the continental U.S.. While most areas will continue to see nighttime temps above normal, most of the 20-degree plus anomalies fade a bit by Monday:

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13613
280. StormTracker2K
3:10 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
279. SPLbeater
3:07 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
mornin all.

be back aftr brefkast
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
278. percylives
3:06 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
I knew I came here for great info.

Xyrus2000 (#268) +100000.

I will forward your instructions to the ecology teacher at the local high school.

Thanks.

Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 99
277. jamesrainier
3:04 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
901 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...NEWTON...BURKEVILLE...

* UNTIL 930 AM CST

* AT 856 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
JAMESTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BURKEVILLE BY 920 AM CST...
STRINGTOWN BY 925 AM CST...
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
276. StormTracker2K
2:55 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Skye, I have lost my link to Maue's website. The coaps link no longer works. Do you happen to one. I would appreciate it.

Your friend in need,

Grothar


Link
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
275. Grothar
2:51 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
Interesting stuff from JPL about the recent drop in sea level being a result from the shift from El Nino to La Nina. Grace caught La Nina dumping copious ocean on Australia & the north end of South America.


Skye, I have lost my link to Maue's website. The coaps link no longer works. Do you happen to one. I would appreciate it.

Your friend in need,

Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26897
274. jamesrainier
2:49 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
828 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CST

* AT 823 AM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH
FLOODING WAS OCCURRING AT FM-787 IN THE TARKINGTON PRAIRIE AREA.
RAINFALL OF 9.3 INCHES WAS REPORTED IN ACE NEAR FM-2610.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE HALF INCH CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 1030 AM CST.

* COMMUNITIES NEAR AND SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING
INCLUDE...SHEPHERD...SEGNO...ROMAYOR...AND TARKINGTON PRAIRIE.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
273. StormTracker2K
2:48 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting hurricane23:


sst's are always plenty warm come june1 every season.


No really. Reason why I posted that map is because we may have June 1st SST averages in April this year.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
272. Minnemike
2:34 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
Interesting stuff from JPL about the recent drop in sea level being a result from the shift from El Nino to La Nina. Grace caught La Nina dumping copious ocean on Australia & the north end of South America.
cool Skye, thanks for sharing!
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
271. Skyepony (Mod)
2:30 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Interesting stuff from JPL about the recent drop in sea level being a result from the shift from El Nino to La Nina. Grace caught La Nina dumping copious ocean on Australia & the north end of South America.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38699
270. hurricane23
2:27 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
This is incredible! These SST's are more in line for early April not early Feb!



sst's are always plenty warm come june1 every season.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13840
269. entrelac
2:25 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Here in Central TX we are damp and very warm. Fingers crossed for a rainy stormy day to refill the lakes. Toes crossed that there's no large hail like this area is prone to.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
268. Xyrus2000
2:23 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting TheoJesse:
Patrap
I've been working on this about three years. About 3000 hours staring at this computer. Three blind mice, one with no feet left to run. Second keyboard. It was all dead end streets until about 6 months ago. I was sitting here trying to come up with the next street to drive down when the analogy dawned on me. It's simple and can be done in your kitchen. Ingredients: Pot or tea kettle, cooking thermometer, water. A gas stove would be better than an electric because of reaction time.
Simulate the 11 year solar cycle with the heat control on the stove. (I've seen that posted here several times but I don't know where to find it.) You will find that the water temperature will continue to rise well after you have passed your maximum temperature excursion. Once the radiated cooling is more than the amount of heat you are applying, the water will start to cool down.
Does this make sense?
Jesse


The 11 year solar cycle does not appreciably add or remove heat from the system on climate scales. The variance in solar output is quite small.

As far as your experiment goes, the water will heat as long as you apply heat. After you turn off the heat (i.e. remove the water completely from the heat source, do not leave it on the burner) then it starts to cool. The water will not heat any further without a heat source. Evaporation does assist in cooling the water, but that happens even if the water is just sitting on a counter, though ambient temperature is enough to keep everything in equilibrium.

But your not really simulating the system. If you want to do a more accurate experiment, fill one bottle 1/4 way with water and normal air. Fill another bottle same way, except use CO2. This can be done easily using baking soda and vinegar. Since CO2 is heavier than air, you can effectively "pour" it into the bottle. You can try pouring in different amounts of CO2 as well, though it can be tough to tell how much you've added. Put holes in both caps big enough to put in a thermometer, but make sure you seal around the thermometer so no gases escape. Heat both bottles gently in a pan of water (or leave them out in the sun) for the exact same amount of time, then measure their temperatures over time.

What you'll notice is the bottle with CO2 will warm faster and cool slower than the one with just air. This is due to CO2 acting as a thermal insulator which reduces the amount of thermal energy that escapes. The difference in heat retention means that, as you cycle through heating and cooling at regular intervals, the CO2 bottle will gradually get warmer and warmer until you hit a point where the CO2 bottle hits a thermal equilibrium.

If you have access to some lab equipment with purified gases, valves, and such you can do this much more accurately by filling two containers with N2, then slowly displacing N2 with CO2 to one of them while repeatedly heating and cooling the containers. The container with CO2 will show an increasing trend in temperature while the one with just N2 will not. If you're measuring CO2 concentrations at the same time, you'll also be able to note the temperature response curve to increasing amounts of CO2.

For bonus points, if you have a thermal imager in your lab, you can have two containers set up (one with CO2, one without) and position them both in front of a heat source. The container without CO2 will show up as transparent, while the one with CO2 will be opaque.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1563
267. StormTracker2K
2:00 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


NHC SST Anomalies only show significant warming off the NE US coast.




I understand that but the last time we had the Gulf this warm in Feb was 2004 & 2005 and we all know what happened those years but like washingtonian115 said it all depends on if we trend toward El-Nino sooner than expected.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
266. nrtiwlnvragn
1:51 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
This is incredible! These SST's are more in line for early April not early Feb!



NHC SST Anomalies only show significant warming off the NE US coast.


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11274
265. washingtonian115
1:37 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Sst are warm now.But it all depends on what happens in the pacific ocean.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17487
264. StormTracker2K
1:29 PM GMT on February 03, 2012

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
263. StormTracker2K
1:23 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
It looks like Mother Nature is preparing the nuclear option on U.S.

She doesn't like to be fooled with, and she may be digging in her high heels.

What better year to show off, than 2012?



Yeah, not good! Look at the 79 temp just east of Melbourne.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
262. FormerAussie
1:20 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
The negative AO means in the UK we've gone from the warmest winter to hard frosts in a flash. Normal wet and mild service to be resumed tomorrow after a brief snowfall they say :-( The newspapers warn of the snow but neglect to point out the rapid thaw forecast to follow. Where did Punxutawney Phil's hillock get its name?
Member Since: October 10, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 56
261. OracleDeAtlantis
1:15 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
This is incredible! These SST's are more in line for early April not early Feb!

It looks like Mother Nature is preparing the nuclear option on U.S.

She doesn't like to be fooled with, and she may be digging in her high heels.

What better year to show off, than 2012?

Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 525
260. StormTracker2K
12:54 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Lot's of convection beginning to build in the NW Caribbean close to where the models develope this surface trough.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
259. StormTracker2K
12:49 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
This is incredible! These SST's are more in line for early April not early Feb!

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
258. StormTracker2K
12:38 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
257. GeoffreyWPB
12:16 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
Miami NWS Discussion

BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS
WELL LATER IN THE WEEKEND. CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BE MOSTLY ISOLATED BY SUNDAY BUT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY INTO MID WEEK AS DEEPER
LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD ENTER THE REGION THROUGH THAT
PERIOD. OF COURSE HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW CONSISTENTLY THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THE
TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN AND SEE WHAT INFLUENCE IT
HAS ON THE REGION.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11432
256. islander101010
12:01 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
the smoke is heading inland now nice breeze off the ocean. central fl. will have it today
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4892
255. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:29 AM GMT on February 03, 2012

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10F (998 hPa) located at 18.5S 169.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20-25 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and surface observations.

Organization remains poor for the last 12 hours. Convection has not increased much in the past 12 hours. Disturbance lies just to the south of an upper ridge and under the influence of a moderate northwest wind flow aloft. At this stage, the system lies in an area of moderate vertical wind shear and will continue to be steered southeastwards. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Global models are moving the system southeastwards with slight intensification in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46181
254. jamesrainier
7:14 AM GMT on February 03, 2012
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
101 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN HEMPHILL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.
SOUTHEASTERN ROBERTS COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.

* UNTIL 130 AM CST

* AT 1255 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE
MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MIAMI...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MIAMI...LORA AND
CANADIAN.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
253. bappit
7:03 AM GMT on February 03, 2012
.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6100
252. hydrus
6:23 AM GMT on February 03, 2012
The latest Gfs run keeps the gulf low...good night and God bless....zzz
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21782
251. hydrus
6:18 AM GMT on February 03, 2012
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21782
250. yqt1001
6:11 AM GMT on February 03, 2012
Can the US Army accept atheists?

If you look at the first few intro paragraphs, does it remind you of anyone? I find the similarities incredibly similar, and the future looks pretty similar.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
249. GTcooliebai
6:05 AM GMT on February 03, 2012
Quoting TampaSpin:




Top one is a black drum while the bottom one is a RED Bull.
Nice catch! I love fish. Did you eat it already? :D
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
248. hydrus
5:50 AM GMT on February 03, 2012
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21782

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.