2011: Earth's 11th warmest year; where is the climate headed?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:22 PM GMT on January 27, 2012

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The year 2011 tied with 1997 as the 11th warmest year since records began in 1880, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center said last week. NASA rated 2011 as the 9th warmest on record. Land temperatures were the 8th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures, the 11th warmest. For the Arctic, which has warmed about twice as much as the rest of the planet, 2011 was the warmest year on record (between 64°N and 90°N latitude.) The year 2011 was also the 2nd wettest year over land on record, as evidenced by some of the unprecedented flooding Earth witnessed. The wettest year over land was the previous year, 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of global temperature from average for 2011. The Arctic was the warmest region, relative to average. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

How much of the warming in recent decades is due to natural causes?
The El Niño/La Niña cycle causes cyclical changes in global temperatures that average out to zero over the course of several decades. La Niña events bring a large amount of cold water to the surface in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, which cools global temperatures by up to 0.2°C. El Niño events have the opposite effect. The year 2011 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. Global temperatures were 0.12°C (0.2°F) cooler than the record warmest year for the planet (2010), and would very likely have been the warmest on record had an El Niño event been present instead.


Figure 2. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1950 - 2011, classified by phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The year 2011 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. ENSO is a natural episodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño/La Niña) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over a period of months to a few years, ENSO fluctuates between warmer-than-average ocean surface waters (El Niño) and cooler-than-average ocean surface waters (La Niña) in that region. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Correcting for natural causes to find the human contribution
We know that natural episodes of global warming or cooling in the distant past have been caused by changes in sunlight and volcanic dust. So, it is good to remove these natural causes of global temperature change over the past 33 years we have satellite data, to see what the human influence might have been during that time span. The three major surface temperature data sets (NCDC, GISS, and HadCRU) all show global temperatures have warmed by 0.16 - 0.17°C (0.28 - 0.30°F) per decade since satellite measurements began in 1979. The two satellite-based data sets of the lower atmosphere (UAH and RSS) give slightly less warming, about 0.14 - 0.15°C (.25 - .27°F) per decade (keep in mind that satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere temperature are affected much more strongly by volcanic eruptions and the El Niño phenomena than are surface-based measurements taken by weather stations.) A 2011 paper published by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Global temperature evolution 1979 - 2010, took the five major global temperature data sets and adjusted them to remove the influences of natural variations in sunlight, volcanic dust, and the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The researchers found that adjusting for these natural effects did not change the observed trend in global temperatures, which remained between 0.14 - 0.17°C (0.25 - 0.31°F) per decade in all five data sets. The warmest years since 1979 were 2010 and 2009 in all five adjusted data sets. Since the known natural causes of global warming have little to do with the observed increase in global temperatures over the past 33 years, either human activity or some unknown natural source is responsible for the global warming during that time period.


Figure 3. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1979 - 2010, adjusted to remove natural variations due to fluctuations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in sunlight. The five most frequently-cited global temperature records are presented: surface temperature estimates by NASA's GISS, HadCRU from the UK, and NOAA's NCDC, and satellite-based lower-atmosphere estimates from Remote Sensing Systems, Inc. (RSS) and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH.) Image credit Global temperature evolution 1979- 2010 by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 2011, 044022 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.

Commentary: what do climate scientists think?
Some scientists have proposed that previously unknown natural causes could be responsible for global warming, such as a decrease in cloud-producing galactic cosmic rays. Others have proposed that the climate may be responding to the heat-trapping effects of carbon dioxide by producing more clouds, which reflect away sunlight and offset the added heat-trapping gases. These theories have little support among actively publishing climate scientists. Despite public belief that climate scientists are divided about the human contribution to our changing climate, polling data show high agreement among climate scientists that humans are significantly affecting the climate. A 2008 poll of actively publishing climate scientists found that 97% said yes to the question, "Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?" In my personal experience interacting with climate scientists, I have found near-universal support for this position. For example, I am confident that all 23 climate scientists and meteorologists whom I am personally acquainted with at the University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Science would agree that "human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures." It is good that we have scientists skeptical of the prevailing consensus challenging it, though, because that is how scientific progress is made. It may be that one of the scientists making these challenges will turn out to be the next Einstein or Galileo, and overthrow the conventional scientific wisdom on climate change. But Einsteins and Galileos don't come along very often. The history of science is littered with tens of thousands of discredited scientific papers that challenged the accepted scientific consensus and lost. If we rely on hopes that the next Einstein or Galileo will successfully overthrow the current scientific consensus on climate change, we are making a high-stakes, low-probability-of-success gamble on the future of civilization. The richest and most powerful corporations in world history, the oil companies, have spent hundreds of millions of dollars to push us to take this gamble, and their efforts have been very successful. Advertising works, particularly when your competition has little money to spend to oppose you.

Where is the climate headed?
The 2007 United Nations-sponsored IPCC report predicted that global temperatures between 2007 and 2030 should rise by an average of 0.2°C (0.36°F) per decade. The observed warming over the past 30 years is 15 - 30% below that (but within the range of uncertainty given by the 2007 IPCC climate models.) Most of the increase in global temperatures during the past 30 years occurred in the 1980s and 1990s. The 2000s have seen relatively flat temperatures, despite increasing CO2 emissions by humans. The lower-than-expected warming may be partially due to a sharp decrease in stratospheric water vapor that began after 2000. The missing heat may also be going into the deep ocean waters below about 1,000 feet (300 meters), as part of a decades-long cycle that will bring extra heat to the surface years from now. Regardless, the laws of physics demand that the huge amount of heat-trapping gases humans are pumping into the atmosphere must be significantly altering the weather and climate, even if we are seeing a lower than predicted warming. As wunderground's climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood said in a recent post,Changing the Conversation: Extreme Weather and Climate: "Given that greenhouse gases are well-known to hold energy close to the Earth, those who deny a human-caused impact on weather need to pose a viable mechanism of how the Earth can hold in more energy and the weather not be changed. Think about it."

Our recent unusual weather has made me think about this a lot. The natural weather rhythms I've grown to used to during my 30 years as a meteorologist have become significantly disrupted over the past few years. Many of Earth's major atmospheric circulation patterns have seen significant shifts and unprecedented behavior; new patterns that were unknown have emerged, and extreme weather events were incredibly intense and numerous during 2010 - 2011. It boggles my mind that in 2011, the U.S. saw 14 - 17 billion-dollar weather disasters, three of which matched or exceeded some of the most iconic and destructive weather events in U.S. history--the "Super" tornado outbreak of 1974, the Dust Bowl summer of 1936, and the great Mississippi River flood of 1927. I appeared on PBS News Hour on December 28 (video here) to argue that watching the weather over the past two years has been like watching a famous baseball hitter on steroids--an analogy used in the past by climate scientists Tony Broccoli and Jerry Meehl. We're used to seeing the slugger hit the ball out of the park, but not with the frequency he's hitting them now that he's on steroids. Moreover, some of the home runs now land way back in the seats where no one has ever been able to hit a home run before. We can't say that any particular home run would not have occurred without the steroids, but the increase in home runs and the unprecedented ultra-long balls are highly suspicious. Similarly, Earth's 0.6°C (1°F) warming and 4% increase in global water vapor since 1970 have created an atmosphere on steroids. A warmer atmosphere has more energy to power stronger storms, hotter heat waves, more intense droughts, and heavier flooding rains. Natural weather patterns could have caused some of the extreme events we witnessed during 2010 - 2011, and these years likely would have been naturally extreme years even without climate change. But it strains the bounds of credulity that all of the extreme weather events--some of them 1-in-1000-year type events--could have occurred without a significant change to the base climate state. Mother Nature is now able to hit the ball out of the park more often, and with much more power, thanks to the extra energy global warming has put into the atmosphere.

Extreme weather years like 2010 and 2011 are very likely to increase in frequency, since there is a delay of several decades between when we put heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere and when the climate fully responds. This is because Earth's oceans take so long to heat up when extra heat is added to the atmosphere (think about how long it takes it takes for a lake to heat up during summer.) Due to this lag, we are just now experiencing the full effect of CO2 emitted by the late 1980s; since CO2 has been increasing by 1 - 3% per year since then, there is a lot more climate change "in the pipeline" we cannot avoid. We've set in motion a dangerous boulder of climate change that is rolling downhill, and it is too late to avoid major damage when it hits full-force several decades from now. However, we can reduce the ultimate severity of the damage with strong and rapid action. A boulder rolling downhill can be deflected in its path more readily early in its course, before it gains too much momentum in its downward rush. For example, the International Energy Agency estimates that every dollar we invest in alternative energy before 2020 will save $4.30 later. There are many talented and dedicated people working very hard to deflect the downhill-rolling boulder of climate change--but they need a lot more help very soon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ScottLincoln:


Always fascinates me how the climate confusionists and denialists can twist the truth. This one ranks near the top... take a press release that clearly indicates that solar activity lulls are unlikely to affect long term climate, and somehow manage to do a complete 180 on it.

That's not something you can do as an honest mistake, that is something you do when you are deliberately - and with malice - attempting to distort the truth and mislead people. This should serve as a lesson for those that fell for it, as long as they still want to maintain credibility as skeptical scientists or enthusiasts.


Climate Confuscius say: The planet is not getting warmer. You're just getting colder.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1625
Quoting bappit:

Hydrus has been all over that.
Yes..To me, it is just a matter of timing. If things come together just right, it could get downright ugly. Severe weather, blizzard conditions and maybe some flooding issues for parts of the south..You can see the cold air pooling on the euro...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22259
Science & Environment 27 January 2012
Accumulating 'microplastic' threat to shores
By Mark Kinver Environment reporter, BBC News

Microscopic plastic debris from washing clothes is accumulating in the marine environment and could be entering the food chain, a study has warned.

Researchers traced the "microplastic" back to synthetic clothes, which released up to 1,900 tiny fibres per garment every time they were washed.

Earlier research showed plastic smaller than 1mm were being eaten by animals and getting into the food chain.

The findings appeared in the journal Environmental Science and Technology.

"Research we had done before... showed that when we looked at all the bits of plastic in the environment, about 80% was made up from smaller bits of plastic," said co-author Mark Browne, an ecologist now based at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

"This really led us to the idea of what sorts of plastic are there and where did they come from."

Dr Browne, a member of the US-based research network National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, said the tiny plastic was a concern because evidence showed that it was making its way into the food chain.

"Once the plastics had been eaten, it transferred from [the animals'] stomachs to their circulation system and actually accumulated in their cells," he told BBC News.

In order to identify how widespread the presence of microplastic was on shorelines, the team took samples from 18 beaches around the globe, including the UK, India and Singapore.

"We found that there was no sample from around the world that did not contain pieces of microplastic."

Dr Browne added: "Most of the plastic seemed to be fibrous.

"When we looked at the different types of polymers we were finding, we were finding that polyester, acrylic and polyamides (nylon) were the major ones that we were finding."

The data also showed that the concentration of microplastic was greatest in areas near large urban centres.

In order to test the idea that sewerage discharges were the source of the plastic discharges, the team worked with a local authority in New South Wales, Australia.

"We found exactly the same proportion of plastics," Dr Browne revealed, which led the team to conclude that their suspicions had been correct.

As a result, Dr Browne his colleague Professor Richard Thompson from the University of Plymouth, UK carried out a number of experiments to see what fibres were contained in the water discharge from washing machines.

"We were quite surprised. Some polyester garments released more than 1,900 fibres per garment, per wash," Dr Browne observed.

"It may not sound like an awful lot, but if that is from a single item from a single wash, it shows how things can build up.

"It suggests to us that a large proportion of the fibres we were finding in the environment, in the strongest evidence yet, was derived from the sewerage as a consequence from washing clothes."
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Quoting RTSplayer:
658:

That would be completely nuts.

A named system on February 10...

Has anything like that ever happened in the past records?


It has but it is very rare. The earliest tropical storm ever recorded was 2/2/1952. The earliest hurricane was 3/6/1908. The earliest major hurricane was hurricane Abel in 1951.

These of course are discounting storms and hurricanes that may have carried over from the previous years (for example, Zeta from 2005 which spanned 2005 to 2006).
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Mexican swine flu outbreak kills 29, infects nearly 1,500
By BNO News

MEXICO CITY (BNO NEWS) -- An ongoing swine flu outbreak in Mexico has left at least 29 people dead and nearly 1,500 others infected, health officials confirmed on Saturday. Thousands more are also ill as the country faces several types of flu this season.

Since the start of the ongoing winter season, at least 7,069 people have reported suffering from symptoms similar to those of swine flu. Lab tests are still underway and have so far confirmed 1,456 cases of the disease, which is officially known as A/H1N1.

According to Mexico's Health Ministry (SSA), at least twenty-nine people have died of swine flu so far this season. While no health emergency has been declared, officials expect the death toll will rise in the coming weeks as Mexico also faces A/H3N2 and B influenza.

The H1N1 influenza virus emerged in the Mexican state of Veracruz in April 2009 and quickly spread around the world, causing the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare a global flu pandemic in June 2009. At least 18,000 people have died of the disease since, although the actual number is believed to be far higher.

In August 2010, the WHO declared that the swine flu pandemic was over. "In the post-pandemic period, influenza disease activity will have returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza," the WHO said at the time. "It is expected that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus."

(Copyright 2012 by BNO News B.V. All rights reserved. Info: sales@bnonews.com.)
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Interesting solution the GFS has going on in the 288 hour time frame in the GOMEX. Appears very hybrid in nature, but it actually appears somewhat sub-tropical in nature for a brief period of time before becoming completely extra-tropical. Probably wont happen, given how extreme and, actually amazing the conditions would have to be in order to support that. Still, interesting to see a model predicting that kind of system in February. That's how warm the SST's are still down there, the Caribbean could still actually support a cyclone. Shear on the other hand?

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Things could get very interesting in a little under a week...
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Interesting tweet by JB regarding a future cold snap for the U.S.

Link

Hydrus has been all over that.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
658:

That would be completely nuts.

A named system on February 10...

Has anything like that ever happened in the past records?


Feb 2nd.
Jan 18th.

March and April storms are also fairly rare, but January and February storms are the rarest in the NAtl.

An early start to 2012 is totally possible considering the warmth in the Caribbean and GoM.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


That's not something you can do as an honest mistake, that is something you do when you are deliberately - and with malice - attempting to distort the truth and mislead people. This should serve as a lesson for those that fell for it, as long as they still want to maintain credibility as skeptical scientists or enthusiasts.

I don't think you can attribute malice on the part of the author with certainty. They may just be doing their job or are zealously after the lulz. (I hear it is important to enjoy your work.) Hard to say, but I agree it was deliberate.
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Quoting hydrus:
Lol..If he can do that, He has learned a lot more about the weather than he is letting on. Usually its Keeper that decides winters fate down here....I believe that Mother Nature has a surprise in store for the eastern half.
don't worry she got a plan for sure we are to see it first hand
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658:

That would be completely nuts.

A named system on February 10...

Has anything like that ever happened in the past records?
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Yowsa!!

Quoting Patrap:


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669. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #27
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY ONE (11U)
9:00 AM WST January 30 2012
=================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category One (977 hPa) located at 19.8S 110.6E or 435 km west northwest of Exmouth and 650 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
90 NM from the center

Tropical Cyclone Iggy which has been moving very slowly over the last 24 hours, has recently started moving to the west. With this recent westward movement, gales are no longer expected to affect mainland locations of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Iggy is expected to take a southwest track over the next 48 hours, before weakening below cyclone intensity during Wednesday.

Tides, however, will be higher than expected along the upper west coast.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

The Cyclone WARNING from Onslow to Coral Bay has been cancelled.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 20.2S 110.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 21.2S 108.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 24.4S 107.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 26.6S 108.1E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

The system has been located by a combination of microwave imagery and enhance infrared. Although shear remains low, there has been little sign of intensification. DT remains at 3.0 based on wrap averaging 0.6, PAT agrees, so FT and CI is held at 3.0. CIMSS AMSU intensity estimate at 20Z indicated 57 knots 1-min, ADT is now at 51 knots 1-min and SATCON 57 knots 1-min, all showing a recent decreasing trend. Final intensity estimate remains at 45 knots 10-min mean.

TC Iggy has remained near stationary for much of the last 24 hours but a westerly movement has recently commenced. General consensus is for a southwesterly track over the next 48 hours, taking it over cooler waters with weakening expected. By late Tuesday and early Wednesday the system will be moving over much cooler sea surface temperature and may be experiencing stronger wind shear.

It is possible the remnants of Iggy may move back towards the west coast later in the week but it is very unlikely that Iggy would still be a cyclone at this time.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
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#666


JB,,the "anti-met" tweet ?

The 384 Hr GFS showed that days ago..
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From Jeff Masters entry in 2010,


One bad result of the eddy breaking off is that now we have an extra source of heat energy for passing hurricanes during the upcoming hurricane season. Loop Current eddies have high-temperature water that extends to great depth, and hurricanes passing over such eddies often undergo rapid intensification. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita of 2005 both underwent rapid intensification as they passed over warm Loop Current eddies in 2005. The formation of a Loop Current Eddy during hurricane season means that a much greater portion of the Gulf of Mexico has deep, warm water capable of fueling rapid intensification of hurricanes.
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Interesting tweet by JB regarding a future cold snap for the U.S.

Link
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Note the warm ring Loop Eddy in the Western GOM on the SSA map for this year 28 Jan.
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Sea Height Anomalies




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Global Warming very evident this year! Wouldn't be surprised if this year becomes the warmest every worldwide.
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16 Day GFS precip plot.



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Very impressive! I wonder if this would become Sub Tropical.

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Quoting Xandra:

The Daily Mail Prints Climate Nonsense

One of my students asked me about a new article just printed in The Daily Mail, a right-wing newspaper in the U.K. The article’s title is, “Forget global warming – it’s Cycle 25 we need to worry about (and if NASA scientists are right the Thames will be freezing over again)“. Here’s a rule of thumb for you. If you ever read anything about climate change in The Daily Mail, the odds are excellent that it’s nonsense. Anyway, here is what I told my student…



Always fascinates me how the climate confusionists and denialists can twist the truth. This one ranks near the top... take a press release that clearly indicates that solar activity lulls are unlikely to affect long term climate, and somehow manage to do a complete 180 on it.

That's not something you can do as an honest mistake, that is something you do when you are deliberately - and with malice - attempting to distort the truth and mislead people. This should serve as a lesson for those that fell for it, as long as they still want to maintain credibility as skeptical scientists or enthusiasts.
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Quoting SPLbeater:
Why is Florida the only state with a freeze warning? of all states...northern florida..


Freeze Warning criteria changes depending on the issuing NWS WFO. Some WFOs only issue it for the first freeze of the year, which signals the end of the growing season. Some WFOs in more mild areas will issue them for each freeze because the events tend to be rare.

I would imagine that Florida counts in the latter, and thus even with near record cold temperatures covering most of the CONUS, Florida would be one of the few places to have Freeze Warnings in effect.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Levi, why'd you steal our winter?
Lol..If he can do that, He has learned a lot more about the weather than he is letting on. Usually its Keeper that decides winters fate down here....I believe that Mother Nature has a surprise in store for the eastern half.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22259
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Wow I see Saul Alinsky's students are alive and well today, using his Rules for Radicals to discredit anything I say and publish, go commrades!
Really? I only see one comment of yours in the last 50 to which anyone responded, and that wasn't anything you wrote, but rather the text of a denialist article from a tabloid that's been linked to half-a-dozen times already today, and responded to at least that many times.

Anyway, while accusing people who insist on telling the scientific truth of being socialists and communists is the last refuge of the desperate, can't we at least try to avoid such nonsensical accusations here? Please?
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Quoting schistkicker:


From the blog's website comes the answer (requiring 3 seconds of web browsing, no more):

Barry Bickmore (blog administrator): Barry Bickmore is a geochemistry professor at Brigham Young University, an active Mormon, and an active Republican. From 2008-2010 he was a County Delegate for the Republican Party. Anything he posts here (obviously) represents his personal opinions, and does not necessarily reflect the position of his employer, Brigham Young University.



Man you're slow. Took me only two seconds.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Looks like a cool down for south Fla. next weekend...





Looks like nice warm weather for South Florida next weekend:

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651. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
9:00 AM FST January 30 2012
======================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 07F (999 hPa) located at 16.0S 167.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as drifting slowly southeast. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Organization has improved slightly in the past 12 hours. Convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. System lies just east of an upper trough under an upper diffluent region in a moderate to high
Sheared environment. SST is around 29-30C. System expected to be steered southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly. Global models are gradually intensifying the system and move it southeast.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours in moderate to high.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 2:30 AM UTC..
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


There's nothing wrong with the Earth. The Earth is just fine. It's been here for 4.5 billion years and will be here for a few billion more.

We, on the other, are screwed.
Should have waited on the June comment. I Got bored and was lurking when i saw this. I honestly Lol!
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National Radar Imagery looks a tad sparse...

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I kinda like CO2 makes my trees grow better, I love plants and trees!
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Wow I see Saul Alinsky's students are alive and well today, using his Rules for Radicals to discredit anything I say and publish, go commrades!
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HAMweather 8 To 14 Day Temperature Outlooks - National US

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Looks like a cool down for south Fla. next weekend...



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Quoting PensacolaDoug:


What's Bickmore degree in?


From the blog's website comes the answer (requiring 3 seconds of web browsing, no more):

Barry Bickmore (blog administrator): Barry Bickmore is a geochemistry professor at Brigham Young University, an active Mormon, and an active Republican. From 2008-2010 he was a County Delegate for the Republican Party. Anything he posts here (obviously) represents his personal opinions, and does not necessarily reflect the position of his employer, Brigham Young University.

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Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, let's see. This is a public forum--that is, a place to discuss relevant items of interest. And trunkmonkey brought up--for at least the sixth time today--the hogwash article in the Mail. So my guess of what's next? Probably another response--at least the sixth one today. ;-)

Speaking of, here you go: http://bbickmore.wordpress.com/2012/01/29/the-dai ly-mail-prints-climate-nonsense/


What's Bickmore degree in?
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Quoting Levi32:
These are the current temperatures around the UAF campus. We are covered in ice fog as well.


Levi, why'd you steal our winter?
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This is pretty obvious, but just pointing it out anyway.

One of the things I found interesting when looking at the Keeling Curve is that of course, nobody really mentions this, but the Keeling Curve actually has bifurcations all the time.

Keeling Curve Mauna Loa

Use the controls on the left to pick about a 20 year data set.

Pick any year from the left side of the data, and label it "year zero".

Now count 6 years to the right.

The annual maximum CO2 concentration in the Zeroth year will be less than the annual minimum CO2 concentration in the 6th year and every year thereafter.

And what about other locations?

Keeling Curve, Barrow Alaska

this is harder to see, because the natural annual variation is much larger.

Pick any year, label it year zero.

Count 12 years to the right and label it 12.

The annual maximum in the Zeroth year is less than the annual minimum in the 12th year and every year thereafter.

Of course, it also works in reverse, i.e. 2010 vs 1998.

Sea Ice Volume

Note that about 2/3rds of the net loss in arctic minimum sea ice volume happened between 1998 and 2010.

That's a difference of 12 years, and reflects how big a difference this Keeling Curve phenomenon really makes.

Someone else could pull up some SST comparisons and global mean atmospheric temperature comparisons.

So to my mind, this makes every 6th and 12th year in climatology important, because you're passing a benchmark where the weakest greenhouse effect day is stronger than the strongest day of the year used to be.

Note that at Mauna Loa, the CO2 peaks in Spring, and bottoms out in Autumn, but late summer, 11 days before Autumn, is actually the climatological minimum of sea ice volume, but the point being that the future greenhouse gas minimum 6 years out is worse than the current greenhouse gas maximum. Meh, hard to explain.

So anyway, if there's anything significant to this, then years like 2007 and 2010 become interesting due to their 2500km^3 down anomalies in Sea Ice.

If there's anything significant to my idea, then at 6 years and 12 years out, we should see significant parallels, which makes certain future years interesting benchmarks.

2013
2019

This is obviously not a predictor of specific behavior in a year, but rather the observation that the range of behavior in and beyond each of these benchmarks should be strictly worse climatologically, particularly after 2019.

2019 is the year where the CO2 minimum in the arctic should be higher than the CO2 maximum was in 2007.

2013 is the year where the CO2 minimum in the tropics should be higher than the CO2 maximum was in 2007.

2007 was very bad both for Atlantic hurricanes and for arctic sea ice melt.


Just something to chew on and try to wrap one's head around.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
602 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
MARSHALL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS

* UNTIL 645 PM CST

* AT 602 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...WITH HEAVY SNOW... OVER SPARLAND...OR
ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LACON...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
HENRY
LACON
VARNA
TOLUCA
WENONA

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THIS DANGEROUS
STORM. GO TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. ABANDON CARS AND MOBILE HOMES IF YOU ARE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR ANY STORM DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL ESDA...OR THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
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Theory is that oxygen came from the snowball earth--ultraviolet light creating hydrogen peroxide from all the ice. The oxygen in turn allowed a more energetic metabolism to evolve and in turn more rapid evolution. Before that we were just slime in the ice machine.
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This is whats next..Hard to grow crops on dis.....Wuz Snowball Earth real.?...Probably...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22259
I just had a mental Image, with sound, of Newt singing Frank Sinatra's, .."Fly me to the Moon"..

I just thought I'd share, since it's Kum by ya Sunday here.
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


Reminds me of those pictures in London from the early part of last century. Nothing like having your lungs encased in carbonite.


The process has gotten alot betta dey say since Jabba Da Hut processed Hans Solo.

Moores Law and all ya know. : )
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
You know what comes next don't ya TM?
Well, let's see. This is a public forum--that is, a place to discuss relevant items of interest. And trunkmonkey brought up--for at least the sixth time today--the hogwash article in the Mail. So my guess of what's next? Probably another response--at least the sixth one today. ;-)

Speaking of, here you go: http://bbickmore.wordpress.com/2012/01/29/the-dai ly-mail-prints-climate-nonsense/
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13729

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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