2011: Earth's 11th warmest year; where is the climate headed?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:22 PM GMT on January 27, 2012

Share this Blog
44
+

The year 2011 tied with 1997 as the 11th warmest year since records began in 1880, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center said last week. NASA rated 2011 as the 9th warmest on record. Land temperatures were the 8th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures, the 11th warmest. For the Arctic, which has warmed about twice as much as the rest of the planet, 2011 was the warmest year on record (between 64°N and 90°N latitude.) The year 2011 was also the 2nd wettest year over land on record, as evidenced by some of the unprecedented flooding Earth witnessed. The wettest year over land was the previous year, 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of global temperature from average for 2011. The Arctic was the warmest region, relative to average. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

How much of the warming in recent decades is due to natural causes?
The El Niño/La Niña cycle causes cyclical changes in global temperatures that average out to zero over the course of several decades. La Niña events bring a large amount of cold water to the surface in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, which cools global temperatures by up to 0.2°C. El Niño events have the opposite effect. The year 2011 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. Global temperatures were 0.12°C (0.2°F) cooler than the record warmest year for the planet (2010), and would very likely have been the warmest on record had an El Niño event been present instead.


Figure 2. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1950 - 2011, classified by phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The year 2011 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. ENSO is a natural episodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño/La Niña) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over a period of months to a few years, ENSO fluctuates between warmer-than-average ocean surface waters (El Niño) and cooler-than-average ocean surface waters (La Niña) in that region. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Correcting for natural causes to find the human contribution
We know that natural episodes of global warming or cooling in the distant past have been caused by changes in sunlight and volcanic dust. So, it is good to remove these natural causes of global temperature change over the past 33 years we have satellite data, to see what the human influence might have been during that time span. The three major surface temperature data sets (NCDC, GISS, and HadCRU) all show global temperatures have warmed by 0.16 - 0.17°C (0.28 - 0.30°F) per decade since satellite measurements began in 1979. The two satellite-based data sets of the lower atmosphere (UAH and RSS) give slightly less warming, about 0.14 - 0.15°C (.25 - .27°F) per decade (keep in mind that satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere temperature are affected much more strongly by volcanic eruptions and the El Niño phenomena than are surface-based measurements taken by weather stations.) A 2011 paper published by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Global temperature evolution 1979 - 2010, took the five major global temperature data sets and adjusted them to remove the influences of natural variations in sunlight, volcanic dust, and the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The researchers found that adjusting for these natural effects did not change the observed trend in global temperatures, which remained between 0.14 - 0.17°C (0.25 - 0.31°F) per decade in all five data sets. The warmest years since 1979 were 2010 and 2009 in all five adjusted data sets. Since the known natural causes of global warming have little to do with the observed increase in global temperatures over the past 33 years, either human activity or some unknown natural source is responsible for the global warming during that time period.


Figure 3. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1979 - 2010, adjusted to remove natural variations due to fluctuations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in sunlight. The five most frequently-cited global temperature records are presented: surface temperature estimates by NASA's GISS, HadCRU from the UK, and NOAA's NCDC, and satellite-based lower-atmosphere estimates from Remote Sensing Systems, Inc. (RSS) and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH.) Image credit Global temperature evolution 1979- 2010 by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 2011, 044022 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.

Commentary: what do climate scientists think?
Some scientists have proposed that previously unknown natural causes could be responsible for global warming, such as a decrease in cloud-producing galactic cosmic rays. Others have proposed that the climate may be responding to the heat-trapping effects of carbon dioxide by producing more clouds, which reflect away sunlight and offset the added heat-trapping gases. These theories have little support among actively publishing climate scientists. Despite public belief that climate scientists are divided about the human contribution to our changing climate, polling data show high agreement among climate scientists that humans are significantly affecting the climate. A 2008 poll of actively publishing climate scientists found that 97% said yes to the question, "Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?" In my personal experience interacting with climate scientists, I have found near-universal support for this position. For example, I am confident that all 23 climate scientists and meteorologists whom I am personally acquainted with at the University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Science would agree that "human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures." It is good that we have scientists skeptical of the prevailing consensus challenging it, though, because that is how scientific progress is made. It may be that one of the scientists making these challenges will turn out to be the next Einstein or Galileo, and overthrow the conventional scientific wisdom on climate change. But Einsteins and Galileos don't come along very often. The history of science is littered with tens of thousands of discredited scientific papers that challenged the accepted scientific consensus and lost. If we rely on hopes that the next Einstein or Galileo will successfully overthrow the current scientific consensus on climate change, we are making a high-stakes, low-probability-of-success gamble on the future of civilization. The richest and most powerful corporations in world history, the oil companies, have spent hundreds of millions of dollars to push us to take this gamble, and their efforts have been very successful. Advertising works, particularly when your competition has little money to spend to oppose you.

Where is the climate headed?
The 2007 United Nations-sponsored IPCC report predicted that global temperatures between 2007 and 2030 should rise by an average of 0.2°C (0.36°F) per decade. The observed warming over the past 30 years is 15 - 30% below that (but within the range of uncertainty given by the 2007 IPCC climate models.) Most of the increase in global temperatures during the past 30 years occurred in the 1980s and 1990s. The 2000s have seen relatively flat temperatures, despite increasing CO2 emissions by humans. The lower-than-expected warming may be partially due to a sharp decrease in stratospheric water vapor that began after 2000. The missing heat may also be going into the deep ocean waters below about 1,000 feet (300 meters), as part of a decades-long cycle that will bring extra heat to the surface years from now. Regardless, the laws of physics demand that the huge amount of heat-trapping gases humans are pumping into the atmosphere must be significantly altering the weather and climate, even if we are seeing a lower than predicted warming. As wunderground's climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood said in a recent post,Changing the Conversation: Extreme Weather and Climate: "Given that greenhouse gases are well-known to hold energy close to the Earth, those who deny a human-caused impact on weather need to pose a viable mechanism of how the Earth can hold in more energy and the weather not be changed. Think about it."

Our recent unusual weather has made me think about this a lot. The natural weather rhythms I've grown to used to during my 30 years as a meteorologist have become significantly disrupted over the past few years. Many of Earth's major atmospheric circulation patterns have seen significant shifts and unprecedented behavior; new patterns that were unknown have emerged, and extreme weather events were incredibly intense and numerous during 2010 - 2011. It boggles my mind that in 2011, the U.S. saw 14 - 17 billion-dollar weather disasters, three of which matched or exceeded some of the most iconic and destructive weather events in U.S. history--the "Super" tornado outbreak of 1974, the Dust Bowl summer of 1936, and the great Mississippi River flood of 1927. I appeared on PBS News Hour on December 28 (video here) to argue that watching the weather over the past two years has been like watching a famous baseball hitter on steroids--an analogy used in the past by climate scientists Tony Broccoli and Jerry Meehl. We're used to seeing the slugger hit the ball out of the park, but not with the frequency he's hitting them now that he's on steroids. Moreover, some of the home runs now land way back in the seats where no one has ever been able to hit a home run before. We can't say that any particular home run would not have occurred without the steroids, but the increase in home runs and the unprecedented ultra-long balls are highly suspicious. Similarly, Earth's 0.6°C (1°F) warming and 4% increase in global water vapor since 1970 have created an atmosphere on steroids. A warmer atmosphere has more energy to power stronger storms, hotter heat waves, more intense droughts, and heavier flooding rains. Natural weather patterns could have caused some of the extreme events we witnessed during 2010 - 2011, and these years likely would have been naturally extreme years even without climate change. But it strains the bounds of credulity that all of the extreme weather events--some of them 1-in-1000-year type events--could have occurred without a significant change to the base climate state. Mother Nature is now able to hit the ball out of the park more often, and with much more power, thanks to the extra energy global warming has put into the atmosphere.

Extreme weather years like 2010 and 2011 are very likely to increase in frequency, since there is a delay of several decades between when we put heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere and when the climate fully responds. This is because Earth's oceans take so long to heat up when extra heat is added to the atmosphere (think about how long it takes it takes for a lake to heat up during summer.) Due to this lag, we are just now experiencing the full effect of CO2 emitted by the late 1980s; since CO2 has been increasing by 1 - 3% per year since then, there is a lot more climate change "in the pipeline" we cannot avoid. We've set in motion a dangerous boulder of climate change that is rolling downhill, and it is too late to avoid major damage when it hits full-force several decades from now. However, we can reduce the ultimate severity of the damage with strong and rapid action. A boulder rolling downhill can be deflected in its path more readily early in its course, before it gains too much momentum in its downward rush. For example, the International Energy Agency estimates that every dollar we invest in alternative energy before 2020 will save $4.30 later. There are many talented and dedicated people working very hard to deflect the downhill-rolling boulder of climate change--but they need a lot more help very soon.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 783 - 733

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Quoting WxGeekVA:


Are you really using 3 La Nina years to disprove global warming?

Please try again.


Does it matter? The chart doesn't lie...goes to show the globe warms and cools in response to the oceans. Lower temp anomalies, are lower temp anomalies.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
lol #781

Some anti-gw people use anything to prove that it aint real. i dont think its real...but i dont think it isnt either lol.

I dont have a side here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bergeron:
GLOBAL WARMING


Are you really using 3 La Nina years to disprove global warming?

Please try again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I put together some Monday morning numbers for your enjoyment:
  • 109 - the number of new daily low temperature records that have been set so far this year in the United States. 25 of those were set in Alaska.

  • 2,132 - the number of new daily high temperature records that have been set so far this year in the United States. One of those was set in Alaska.

  • 19.56 to 1 - the ratio of new daily high temperature records to new daily low temperature records set so far this year in the United States.

  • 1 - the number of all-time January low temperature records set so far this month in the United States.

  • 42 - the number of all-time January high temperature records set so far this month in the United States.

  • 1 - the number of days so far this month during which record daily low temperatures have outnumbered record daily high temperature records in the United States.

  • 28 - the number of days so far this month during which record daily high temperatures have outnumbered record daily low temperature records in the United States.

  • 1 - the number of weeks in the past 11 this winter during which record daily low temperatures have outnumbered record daily high temperature records in the United States.

  • 10 - the number of weeks in the past 11 this winter during which record daily high temperatures have outnumbered record daily low temperature records in the United States.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GLOBAL WARMING
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ities
Place Alerts Temp. Humidity Pressure Conditions Wind Updated
Aasiaat 9 °F 67% 29.77 in Partly Cloudy NNE at 22 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Angisoq 28 °F 58% 29.27 in Snow NW at 14 mph 9:00 AM WGT Save
Aputiteeq 22 °F 96% 29.77 in Snow East at 11 mph 9:00 AM WGT Save
Cape Harald Moltke -25 °F 59% n/a Cloudy NE at 3 mph Estimated Save
Cape Tobin 7 °F 92% 29.89 in Light Snow Fog Variable at 2 mph 1:50 PM EGT Save
Carey Island 0 °F 67% 30.09 in Cloudy SSE at 12 mph 8:00 AM AST Save
Daneborg 1 °F 48% 29.84 in Partly Cloudy South at 4 mph 9:00 AM WGT Save
Danmarkshavn -2 °F 56% n/a Snow NW at 17 mph Estimated Save
Hall Land -27 °F 69% 30.11 in Partly Cloudy Calm 8:00 AM MST Save
Henrik Kroeyer Holme -4 °F 67% 29.99 in Cloudy NNE at 22 mph 9:00 AM WGT Save
Ikermiit 25 °F 72% 29.62 in Snow NW at 20 mph 9:00 AM WGT Save
Ikermiuarsuk 25 °F 27% 29.54 in Cloudy NNW at 28 mph 9:00 AM WGT Save
Illoqqortoormiut 7 °F 92% 29.89 in Light Snow Fog Variable at 2 mph 1:50 PM EGT Save
Ilulissat -2 °F 60% 29.74 in Clear NE at 10 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Kangerlussuaq -19 °F 56% 29.72 in Clear NE at 9 mph 12:00 PM WGT Save
Kangilinnguit 23 °F 63% n/a Cloudy NNE at 3 mph Estimated Save
Kap Morris Jesup -27 °F 60% n/a Cloudy WSW at 11 mph Estimated Save
Kitsissorsuit -3 °F 68% 30.03 in Cloudy NNE at 7 mph 9:00 AM WGT Save
Kitsissut 9 °F 57% 29.59 in Clear East at 5 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Kulusuk 27 °F 80% 29.68 in Mostly Cloudy ESE at 23 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Maniitsoq 25 °F 40% 29.36 in Scattered Clouds NW at 6 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Mittarfik Nuuk 18 °F 49% 29.33 in Scattered Clouds Variable at 2 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Narsarsuaq 34 °F 35% 29.24 in Low Drifting Snow ENE at 32 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Navy Operated -24 °F 99% n/a Cloudy South at 17 mph Estimated Save
Nerlerit Inaat 7 °F 92% 29.89 in Light Snow Fog Variable at 2 mph 1:50 PM EGT Save
Nunarsuit 27 °F 72% 29.32 in Cloudy East at 12 mph 9:00 AM WGT Save
Nuuk 18 °F 49% 29.33 in Scattered Clouds Variable at 2 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Nuussuaataa 0 °F 66% 29.86 in Clear South at 5 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Paamiut 21 °F 24% 29.30 in Mostly Cloudy NE at 4 mph 12:00 PM WGT Save
Pituffik -17 °F 73% 30.09 in Clear East at 10 mph 10:55 AM AST Save
Prins Christian Sund 26 °F 86% 29.19 in Heavy Snow NNE at 51 mph 12:00 PM WGT Save
Qaanaaq -29 °F 83% n/a Clear ESE at 9 mph Estimated Save
Qaarsut 0 °F 66% 29.86 in Clear South at 5 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Qaqortoq 34 °F 35% 29.24 in Low Drifting Snow ENE at 32 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Sioralik 25 °F 40% 29.36 in Scattered Clouds NW at 6 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Sisimiut 9 °F 57% 29.59 in Clear East at 5 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Sisimiut Mittarfia 9 °F 57% 29.59 in Clear East at 5 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Station Nord -17 °F 94% n/a Cloudy North at 9 mph Estimated Save
Station Nord -16 °F 56% 30.11 in Cloudy NW at 6 mph 12:00 PM WGT Save
Summit -23 °F 75% n/a Cloudy South at 17 mph Estimated Save
Tasiilaq 27 °F 80% 29.68 in Mostly Cloudy ESE at 23 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Ukiivik 21 °F 48% 29.35 in Cloudy ESE at 8 mph 9:00 AM WGT Save
Upernavik -6 °F 92%

Greenland has diverse temperatures. Ice freezes at 32F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
:D

SINCE DECEMBER BEAUMONT HAS RECEIVED 9.67 INCHES OF RAIN... LAKE
CHARLES 13.24 INCHES... LAFAYETTE... 8.59 INCHES WITH ALEXANDRIA
REPORTING...11.44 INCHES. VERY WELCOME NEWS FOR A REGION THAT HAS
BEEN IN A DROUGHT OVER TWO YEARS.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 252
Quoting ILwthrfan:


The year of no winter continues across much of the United States. Our next three days here in Central Illinois is calling for lower to mid 50's for highs. I think average is around 34 for this time of the year, I bet our average this year has been somewhere between 40-45 with little deviation. We have not had many nights below 20 either. Just ridiculous. Looks as if the pattern could change late in the week as the models are having a difficult time of just how it will unfold. I am keeping my fingers crossed for our first potential Midwest snow storm.
Models are rather vague at at the moment. The GFS and the Euro seem to put something on the map by this weekend. By Wednesday, we should have a good idea what will transpire. The cold air near the Northern Territories has moved E-SE the past 24 hours.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
Quoting Neapolitan:
The following maps from HAMweather show low temperature anomalies forecast for the next four days across the continental U.S.:

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm


The year of no winter continues across much of the United States. Our next three days here in Central Illinois is calling for lower to mid 50's for highs. I think average is around 34 for this time of the year, I bet our average this year has been somewhere between 40-45 with little deviation. We have not had many nights below 20 either. Just ridiculous. Looks as if the pattern could change late in the week as the models are having a difficult time of just how it will unfold. I am keeping my fingers crossed for our first potential Midwest snow storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Any1 seen Iggy lately, i think he made something positive out of a dry air entrainment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trunkmonkey:


Sir, your the one attacking, discrediting, and name calling, I'm only bringing to light the methods you and others used against me in the arguments, rather than have a civil discourse!


i dont even bother with neapolitan. he never said a good thing to me, just negative. so he go poof months ago xD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
'commie' and 'socialist' strike me as 'name calling'....and, of course, there's always thisLink
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
770. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting presslord:



Whoooooosh!!!! Nothin' but net!!!


Thanks Press~ The only reason I didn't link the pic back to where the join us button would take you to donate is, it is a broken link...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trunkmonkey:


Sir, your the one attacking, discrediting, and name calling, I'm only bringing to light the methods you and others used against me in the arguments, rather than have a civil discourse!
Care to provide a link to the comment(s) where you saw me "attacking" you or calling you names? I would really appreciate it, so thanks in advance.

I did, however, engage in "discrediting". But that's only because highlighting the lack of credibility in those promoted as credible is how the truth is discovered; it happens everyday in a courtroom near you. (And note that no one "discredited" you, but rather the article to which you linked.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trunkmonkey:


Sir, your the one attacking, discrediting, and name calling, I'm only bringing to light the methods you and others used against me in the arguments, rather than have a civil discourse!

Let me refresh your memory!

Quoting trunkmonkey 12:49 AM CET on Januari 30, 2012:

Wow I see Saul Alinsky's students are alive and well today, using his Rules for Radicals to discredit anything I say and publish, go commrades!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
767. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

AO has a really big influence on Polish weather. Just look at the Jan 2012 tempeature chart for Wroclaw and you'll see



Your temperatures has fallen.. That river just partially frozen?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:


Actually the polar bears are currently on your can of Coca-Cola to raise awareness & money. From a corporate advantage it makes great political sense..






Whoooooosh!!!! Nothin' but net!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Oh, I don't see any commercials this year showing the poor Polar bears drowning due to the lack of Ice in Alaska, due to Global warming!

Why not? one ask!


Because there isn't a political advantage to the argument that Alaska is frozen solid!




Link

Yes, Alaska is below normal but see all the areas in the Arctic that are above normal.

This is one day's measurements. They do not represent "climate" just as one area's weather doesn't.

Climate change better represented by the northward adjustment of the plant hardiness zones as has just occurred in the US.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
764. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Oh, I don't see any commercials this year showing the poor Polar bears drowning due to the lack of Ice in Alaska, due to Global warming!

Why not? one ask!


Because there isn't a political advantage to the argument that Alaska is frozen solid!


Actually the polar bears are currently on your can of Coca-Cola to raise awareness & money. From a corporate advantage it makes great political sense..



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Oh, I don't see any commercials this year showing the poor Polar bears drowning due to the lack of Ice in Alaska, due to Global warming!

Why not? one ask!


Because there isn't a political advantage to the argument that Alaska is frozen solid!


Yes Alaska is feeling winters fierce grip, but look at the data for this past year vs. the norm of years before. There is about a 6:1 ratio on the earths surface area that was above normal, while if you just look at total Continental land mass, that ratio is closer to 50:1 in above normal temperatures. So what point are you trying to make from that? That it's bad data? Show me how this is incorrect. It is what it is...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:

AO has a really big influence on Polish weather. Just look at the Jan 2012 tempeature chart for Wroclaw and you'll see
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Oh, I don't see any commercials this year showing the poor Polar bears drowning due to the lack of Ice in Alaska, due to Global warming!

Why not? one ask!


Because there isn't a political advantage to the argument that Alaska is frozen solid!


Snowing a few extra feet in a location that usually gets several feet of snow anyway does NOT make up for an entire continent being way below average snowfall.

Today's Departure from Normal Lows

30 degrees above normal lows?

Really?

How's the sun supposedly causing that during 12 hours of darkness?
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting sunlinepr:
img src="">

The Tsar Bomba

October 30th 1961 - The Tsar Bomba, King of the Bombs, Царь-бомба or Big Ivan.

This footage is courtesy of the documentary "Trinity and Beyond", directed by Peter Kuran, and other footage is courtesy of the Discovery channel. The original footage was from declassified Soviet Archives. ....



All you need to know about nuclear war. A 12 minute presentation at the recent AGU meeting by Alan Robock of Rutgers.

Link

4 word summary. There are no winners.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
759. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY TWO (11U)
9:00 PM WST January 30 2012
=================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category Two (974 hPa) located at 20.4S 110.2E or 440 km west northwest of Exmouth and 610 km northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
110 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 21.4S 109.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 23.0S 108.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 26.5S 107.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 27.2S 109.5E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

The system has been located by a combination of microwave imagery, visible and infrared. Shear remains low, and there is evidence that strengthening upper level outflow has led to a slight intensification over the past 12 hours. Additionally TC Iggy is now moving into less disturbed waters, and convection has become symmetric about a large diameter eye.

DT is at 3.5 with a curved band wrap of 0.8. SATCON has a 61 kn one minute intensity - in part based on a microwave estimate of 65 kn one minute winds at 06z. As such the intensity is placed at 55 knots 10 minute mean.

Almost all models have come into line on forecast track over the next 48 to 72 hours, and the consensus has been followed here. Some models indicate further intensification, however this forecast holds the intensity at 55 knots, and then begins a weakening trend [due to low SSTs] prior to the system falling below TC intensity and taking a more easterly track.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 19:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We just got another proton blast on the 27th. Should make for more interesting aurora images.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How dare anyone sully a perfectly good argument by trying to involve pesky things like scientific investigation, observation, and data?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh, I don't see any commercials this year showing the poor Polar bears drowning due to the lack of Ice in Alaska, due to Global warming!

Why not? one ask!


Because there isn't a political advantage to the argument that Alaska is frozen solid!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Really? I only see one comment of yours in the last 50 to which anyone responded, and that wasn't anything you wrote, but rather the text of a denialist article from a tabloid that's been linked to half-a-dozen times already today, and responded to at least that many times.

Anyway, while accusing people who insist on telling the scientific truth of being socialists and communists is the last refuge of the desperate, can't we at least try to avoid such nonsensical accusations here? Please?


Sir, your the one attacking, discrediting, and name calling, I'm only bringing to light the methods you and others used against me in the arguments, rather than have a civil discourse!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
754. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
18:00 PM FST January 30 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 09F (999 hPa) located at 17.4S 170.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25-30 knots. The depression is reported as slow moving. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Convection remains persistent for the last 12 hours. Overall organization has not improved for the past 12 hours. Depression lies to the east of an upper trough and under the influence of a strong northwesterly wind flow aloft. System lies in an area of moderate shear. Sea surface temperature is around 29-30C

Global models are gradually intensifying the system and moving it southeastwards.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
753. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
18:00 PM FST January 30 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 07F (1000 hPa) located at 15.9S 167.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. THe depression is reported as moving east at 10 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Organization has not improved much in the past 12 hours. Convection remains to the east of the low level circulation center. System lies to the east of an upper trough and under the influence of a strong northwesterly wind flow region aloft. Depression lies in a region of moderate to high vertical shear. sea surface temperature is around 29-30C. System is being steered to the southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly into a region of decreasing shear.

Global models are gradually intensifying the system and moving it southeastwards.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
752. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY ONE (11U)
3:00 PM WST January 30 2012
=================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category One (980 hPa) located at 19.9S 110.1E or 475 km west northwest of Exmouth and 660 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 20.7S 109.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 21.9S 108.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 25.4S 106.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 26.9S 107.9E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

The system has been located by a combination of microwave imagery and VIS. Shear remains low. DT remains at 3.0 based on wrap averaging 0.7, PAT agrees, so FT and CI is held at 3.0.

TC Iggy is maintaining a westerly movement. General consensus is for a southwesterly track over the next 48 hours. By Wednesday the system will be moving over much cooler sea surface temperatures and may be experiencing stronger wind shear, causing Iggy to weaken below cyclone intensity.

It is possible the remnants of Iggy may move back towards the west coast later in the week but it is unlikely that Iggy would still be a cyclone at this time.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 13:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I leave you with a vid I found of the aurora borealis video shot in Tromso Norway on Jan 24. The video is shot in real time. No time-lapse acceleration.


Thanks for the vid. Makes me want to see the lights in person some day.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6090
748. wxmod
It's amazing that some people think the development of weapons ends here. This was a long time ago. Technology moves forward. Now they could crack the Earth in two.
But the most important new weapons are the ones that can devastate at a distance, without your adversary even noticing who is doing the dirty deed. Those are the weather weapons; the Earthquake weapons, the disease weapons. We've got em all. Nighty night.


Quoting sunlinepr:
img src="">

The Tsar Bomba

October 30th 1961 - The Tsar Bomba, King of the Bombs, Царь-бомба or Big Ivan.

This footage is courtesy of the documentary "Trinity and Beyond", directed by Peter Kuran, and other footage is courtesy of the Discovery channel. The original footage was from declassified Soviet Archives. wave was powerful enough to break windows at even up to 900 kilometres (560 miles) from the blast. The shockwave was recorded orbiting the earth 3 times. The mushroom cloud rose to an altitude of 64,000 meters (210,000 feet) before levelling out. The thermal energy from the blast was powerful that it could cause 3rd degree burns to a human standing 100 n on its outskirts.

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1765
I leave you with a vid I found of the aurora borealis video shot in Tromso Norway on Jan 24. The video is shot in real time. No time-lapse acceleration.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You definitely want him to bring his nurse.  The big G always surrounded himself with beautiful women
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


When you come home, you will have to travel down to south Fla. so you, Grothar and myself can party. Of course, Gro's nurse will have to come also.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Afghanis also use a term of area called a bigha. Used in measuring farmland. It's not really a unit. Bighas vary in size from about 1,800 square yards to 15,000 square yards.

As you can see some are bigha than others.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
There are longer units too.

A seir is about 600 feet.

A ghalva is about 720 feet.

A parasang is about 3 1/2 miles

A barid is 4 parasangs

A marhala is 8 parasangs

Afghani peasants may not know meters and kilometers well but they know their ghalvas and parasangs when talking distances or family land boundaries.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
img src="">

The Tsar Bomba

October 30th 1961 - The Tsar Bomba, King of the Bombs, Царь-бомба or Big Ivan.

This footage is courtesy of the documentary "Trinity and Beyond", directed by Peter Kuran, and other footage is courtesy of the Discovery channel. The original footage was from declassified Soviet Archives. The music used is from The Planets Suite composed by Gustav Holst. The movement is 'Mars: the Bringer of War'

Before I get into the details of the test, I want to clear up something very important. The title of this video is "Tsar Bomba - King of the Bombs - 57,000,000 Tonnes of TNT". Understand now that this test wasn't the result of a detonation of 57,000,000 Tonnes of TNT, but rather the nuclear yield EQUIVALENT of a detonation of 57,000,000 Tonnes of Trinitrotoluene. The actual weight of the device was 27 tonnes. And coincidentally, one tonne is taken as a metric tonne, or 1000 kilograms - (2200lbs). All units used in physics are metric. The reason the yield equivalent system is used is because the energy released from the explosion of a set amount of TNT is a constant.

Second to that: I KNOW THE SCREENSHOTS AT THE END ARE OF THE CLOUD OVER THE GROUND. The reason I made a mistake was because when I made this video I was using a 6 year old CRT monitor with numerous problems, some of which with the shading. I greatly regret it butI cant be bothered removing/re-uploading the video again so Ill just live with it.

The bomb was designed as a 100 Megaton device, not a 50 Megaton device. This was due to its 3 stage design: fission-fusion-fusion. There is fission initiator that when detonated, begins a fusion reaction. Then there is a further fast-fission detonation (With neutrons from the second stage) of a Uranium-238 tamper which boosts the yield by 50 Megatons. For the test, the Tsar had its Uranium tamper replaced with lead to reduce the maximum yield by half (To 50 Megatons).

The blast yield was equal to that of a blast of 57,000,000 Tonnes of TNT....or to put that into context: The weight of 270 Empire State Buildings worth of TNT. This makes the Tsar the most powerful nuclear device ever detonated in history. Think of the destruction at Hiroshima. The Tsar was 3800 times more powerful than Hiroshima.

The bomb's weight was 27 tonnes, and its dimensions were: 8 meters (26ft) in length, and 2 meters (6.5ft) in diameter.

It was air-dropped, from a modified Tupolev Tu-95 Bear, and it used a nylon parachute to slow its decent to give the crew time to escape.

The bomb was dropped from an altitude of 34,500 feet AGL (10,500 meters), and it detonated a little over three minutes later at an altitude of 13,100 feet AGL (4,000 meters). In this time: The Tu-95, travelling at a ground speed of 480kts (552mph, 864kph), travelled into the safe zone (about 45km from ground zero) and was therefore 79km away from the blast.

When the bomb detonated, immediately the temperature directly below and surrounding the detonation would have risen to millions of degrees. The pressure below the blast was 300 pounds per square inch, ten times the pressure in a car tyre. The light energy released was so powerful that it was visible even at 1000km (621 miles), with cloudy skies. The shockwave was powerful enough to break windows at even up to 900 kilometres (560 miles) from the blast. The shockwave was recorded orbiting the earth 3 times. The mushroom cloud rose to an altitude of 64,000 meters (210,000 feet) before levelling out. The thermal energy from the blast was powerful that it could cause 3rd degree burns to a human standing 100 km (62 miles) away from the blast.
The radius of the fireball was 2.3 kilometres (1.4 miles). The blast radius (area in which total destruction ensured) was 13km (8 miles).


The most important thing to note is that this bomb was designed as a 100 Megaton device (Yield equivalent of 0.1 billion tonnes of TNT). If detonated, everything within a 48 kilometer (30 mile) diameter would be vaporised. Everything within a 195 kilometer (120 mile) diameter would be incinerated in a fireball. This would ensure total destruction of a large city like New York, Paris or London, as well as devastation on its outskirts.

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Afghanistan is metric, not imperial. But for distances there are islamic units like the orgye (about 6 feet 4 inches), the qasab (2 orgyes)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cesium leakage keeps increasing
Posted by Mochizuki on January 29th, 2012 · No Comments

Following up this article ..Radiation emit has increased since January

Tepco estimated that the cesium emission of January is 70 million Bq/h, but it increased to be 72 million Bq/h even since 1/23, when they made the estimation. The radiation leakage is in the increasing trend.
From 1/22 ~ 1/28, emission of cesium per hour was 72 million Bq/h, Tepco announced. It increased from December by 12 million Bq/h. However, this is only the leakage amount from reactor 1,2 and 3. The leakage data from reactor 4 is not published.
Tepco explains it is because they started woking in reactor 2 and 3, more people walk about so the dust flies into the air. They add, it is really difficult to reduce the emission drastically.



Cold weather destroys water cooling system
Posted by Mochizuki on January 29th, 2012 · No Comments



Cold weather destroys water cooling system2

As exactly warned, water cooling system keeps having water leakage at various points.
On 1/29, Tepco announced they found water leakage at 14 points, 7800 L in total. That is because frozen water in pipes caused leakage at joint parts from the cold weather.
Tepco claims it’s the water after purification or plain water from dam, none of it has leaked to the sea.

At 9:35, heat exchanger stopped after 40 L of contaminated water leaked from the pipe.
At 9:50, Tepco employee found 600 L of contaminated water leaked around the flow monitor of emergency pomp. There was a water leakage even at reactor 6.


CBC on TMI: Reports of enormous increase in cancer deaths — Infant mortality rates doubled — Birds disappeared — Many mutations observed (VIDEO)
Published: January 29th, 2012 at 04:07 PM EDT
By Enenews Admin
Title: Counting the Costs: Three Mile Island
Source: Listener’s Choice from CBC Radio
Date: June 6th, 2008

Gwen Anderson was only twenty-three years old when she first heard “Counting the Costs: Three Mile Island” on CBC Radio. Now it’s twenty-three years later, and Gwen earns a living doing the same kind of work that the men at Three Mile Island did. She requested this Ideas documentary from Winnipeg. It originally aired on October 13th, 1986.

Transcript Summary

Reports we are getting say infant mortality rates doubled
More important is the enormous increase in cancer deaths in children in the four counties surrounding TMI compared to the numbers previous to the accident that the health department listed even on say leukemia

Animals and plants damaged substantially
We have done an in-depth report on plant life
We are seeing many mutations
We saw the leaves the first year
All the birds on the farm disappeared
The trees, it looked like winter
Not only did we see complete defoliation, we saw trees defoliated at different levels
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
I'm good. 

Does 'stan operate on Metric or English?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Fahrenheit. We are to the north of Kabul, but slightly lower. Still near 4,900 feet.

Hope you're doing well Geoffrey and Shen.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does 'stan do C or F.  What about other metric stuff?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Fahrenheit. We are to the north of Kabul, but slightly lower. Still near 4,900 feet.

Hope you're doing well Geoffrey and Shen.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Fahrenheit. We are to the north of Kabul, but slightly lower. Still near 4,900 feet.

Hope you're doing well Geoffrey and Shen.


When you come home, you will have to travel down to south Fla. so you, Grothar and myself can party. Of course, Gro's nurse will have to come also.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Fahrenheit. We are to the north of Kabul, but slightly lower. Still near 4,900 feet.

Hope you're doing well Geoffrey and Shen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
C or F?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Dusty and cold. Near 20 this morning. But not as bad as before got down to 5 last weekend.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi Brian...hope you are doing well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We've had some decent snowstorms this month.

5" Jan 3-6, intermittent snow showers throughout

7" Jan 14-15

9" Jan 22-23

We also had 1 1/2" on Jan 11

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 783 - 733

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
45 °F
Overcast