Wilma pounding Cozumel

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:21 PM GMT on October 21, 2005

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Hurricane Wilma's western eyewall is battering Cozumel Island today with sustained winds of 145 mph. Cancun radar shows the west eyewall touching Cozumel, and some intense rainbands affecting Cancun and the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula with rains of over one inch per hour. Wind measurements from the Cancun and Cozumels airports are not available, and we have to rely on the hurricane hunters for wind information. The latest aircraft report at 6:10 am showed no signs that the storm was weakening yet, and Wilma still has a few hours to intensify slighty before the center moves over land.

As Wilma continues north-northwest at 4 mph today, the large eye of the storm should come ashore near Cancun, bringing enormous devastation to the 50-mile wide section of coast exposed to the intense winds of the hurricane's eyewall. A long period of calm lasting up to seven hours will accompany the passage of the slow-moving eye, givng residents the only respite from the storm they are likely to get for the next two days. During these next two days, Wilma will wander erratically over or just offshore the Yucatan. This will expose structures in the hurricane zone to very long duration hurricane force winds, creating far more destruction than Category 4 Hurricane Emily did earlier this year, or Category 5 Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. Wilma may be Mexico's most expensive hurricane disaster ever. Wilma's rains will add to the misery, reaching 20 inches or more over not just the Yucatan, but the western tip of Cuba as well.


Figure 2. Computer model tracks for Hurricane Wilma.

How will Wilma affect Florida?
During the next two days, steady weakening of the storm should occur due to interaction with land. In addition, wind shear and dry air are beginning to increase over the northwest side of the storm, and should work together to steadily reduce Wilma's strength. When the trough of low pressure expected to pick up Wilma finally does sweep her east towards Florida, wind shear will be quite high and increasing, leading to continued steady weakening. The final strength of Wilma at landfall in south Florida could still range from Category 3 to tropical storm. It all depends upon how much time Wilma spends over water. If the UKMET model is right, Wilma will spend very little time over land, and arrive at Florida as a Category 3 hurricane. If the GFDL model is right, Wilma will spend more than two days over land and weaken to a tropical storm, and eventually move across Cuba as a tropical storm, missing Florida entirely.

Given all these factors, I don't see any reason to change the range of probabilities I gave yesterday for Florida. I'd give Wilma a 10% chance of arriving on the Florida west coast as a Category 3 or higher storm, 20% as a Category 2, 40% as a Category 1, and 30% as a tropical storm. On Florida's east coast, knock these value down by half a Category (10 - 15 mph).

The timing of this expected blow on Florida is still difficult to pin down. Some models are now indicating Wilma may not hit Florida until Tuesday. What are the chances that Wilma will somehow move north and affect the Florida Panhandle, or portions of the Gulf Coast further west? Less than 1 in 1000. As we approach winter in the Northern Hemisphere, westerly winds associated with the Jet Stream move far to the south, making it very difficult for any storm to go any direction but east or northeast once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico.

After Florida, then what?
There is no change to the forecast. After crossing Florida, Wilma should bring tropical storm force winds to the northern Bahama Islands. Wilma should pass well offshore North Carolina, but close enough to bring tropical storm force winds to the Outer Banks. Wilma is expected to merge with a large low pressure system as she approaches Maine or Nova Scotia next week, and could bring tropical storm force winds to Cape Cod, Maine, and the Canadian Maritime provinces.

What's behind Wilma?
There is a large area of disorganized thunderstorms near 13N 63W, about 500 miles south-southeast of Puerto Rico. This area has gotten better organized since yesterday, and has some potential for slow development as it moves northwest towards Haiti. This system is primarily a threat to Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas, and should recurve out to sea thereafter.

I'll be back this afternoon with the lastest. The Mexican weather service's web site is overloaded, so I am not including any links pointing to Cancun radar or other Mexican weather data.

Jeff Masters

Waves on Jamaica's Westerly tip (jamaicawatch)
These waves have battered Negril,Jamaica.
Waves on Jamaica's Westerly tip
Caye Caulker Street (momiller)
Hurricane Wilma came within 150 miles of Caye Caulker, Belize on Oct 20, 2005. We are 3/4 mile from the barrier reef where 20 ft + waves were crashing and splashing up to at least 40 feet! We only received 2-4 ft on shore. Some clean up, then back to: Go Slow in paradise!
Caye Caulker Street

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305. wadcane
6:37 PM GMT on October 22, 2005
Does anyone know how the new TD#25(maybe Alpha) will interact with Wilma. The projected path of the TD will move East and North of the Bahamas. Could this push Wilma further West as it speeds NE up the US coast????
304. oceanlover
2:17 AM GMT on October 22, 2005
Is anyone here concerned about the very good people of the Yucatan? Any friends or family, frequent travelers, or other interested parties out there? I'm worried about SW FL - used to live there and have friends there - but also wondered if anyone is thinking of those who are right this minute in harm's way. Anyone?
303. Bukwurm
9:40 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
"A mandatory evacuation should have been backed by a predetermined government plan for the safe and timely evacuation of those people within as little as 48 (36??) hours."

Oops - can't resist one final comment.

Sonny, you and I are in agreement. The problem in New Orleans was not that there was no plan in place; it was that the plan wasn't followed. Worse yet, it turned out to be a paper plan only - there were no procedures in place to implement it, which is a much different, and in many ways larger, problem.

I know my earlier post sounds like I'm blaming Nagin, but that's not really true. The plans should have been written, to include procedures, decades ago. There were none, not even, as near as I can tell, a recall list of "essential personnel," whose job descriptions, when they were hired, stated they had to remain behind in the case of a disaster. And that's a very basic part of any disaster preparedness plan.

So, people did their best on their own, and it wasn't quite good enough. Hopefully, it will never happen again, as I think there is a lot of soul searching going on at all levels of government right now.

Obviously, when I'm talking about Darwin, I'm not including the people who were unable to get to safety - only the ones who pooh-poohed the entire concept of danger. That's a very different situation.
302. Bukwurm
9:01 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
Sonny,

The forecast track centerline started a bit east of Panama City, I believe, and moved west with every single update for that week. It showed LA before the two day out mark - although you wouldn't know it to hear some of the government officials. In fact, President Bush declared a state of emergency for Louisiana two or three days before Katrina made landfall. Also, two days prior is when the mayor said he was concerned about lawsuits if he orded an evacuation, so asked the attorneys rto look into whether he had the authority to do it or not. (Among other things, that shows how well thought out the NOLA disaster prep was - if that was a serious question, it should have been answered years earlier.) That was why the NHC head called him at home that night (Saturday) - to beg the mayor to order a mandatory evacuation. That was the first time ever that NHC has made a home phone call about a hurricane - and it was because there was no sense that Louisiana was paying attention to the storm. Then, when the evacuation was called, the evacuation plan was ignored, as the mayor was supposed to set up busses for the people who couldn't leave on their own. He said after the fact he had no drivers willing to stay - fact is, there was no attempt made to find any. There was no plan in place to do so.

I was glued to my computer that entire time, and remember spending several days wondering if we would get back into the main strike zone.

It's true that it was only a couple of days that the NHC centerline zeroed in on New Orleans. That, however, is not what counts - as they continually emphasize. It's the entire "cone" that is the forecast area. In fact, The Weather Channel no longer shows the centerline, as it confuses too many people.

It's like a due date when you're pregnant - only 5% of babies are born on the "due date," and over half are born after it. All the due date is is the middle of a four week window - but just ask any soon-to-be mom the day after her "due date" passes - she's convinced she's "late," and starts getting upset...

So, yes, ground zero was only there for about two days - BUT - New Orleans was in the direct path for over a week.

There were mistakes made at all levels, and many people died because of that. I don't believe, however, that any of the errors were made by the NHC. Maybe Florida evacuates too quickly. I prefer it that way, however - as meteorology is an inexact science. If you wait to leave til you're positive you are in the target zone, you'll be stuck on a road.

If Wilma lands north of Tampa, it's still an accurate forecast. If it hits us, THEN there was an inaccuracy. (and yes, P'Cola is still listed as a possible site - but odds are below 5%, so it shows in the strike probability data, but not in the forecast graphic.)

lol

I think I'll quit posting - I don't have time to edit these rambles. Many apologies for the longwindedness. I'll go back to lurking for now.

Good luck, everyone.
301. blackvette2000
8:33 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
NYPD2PSL... Just spoke with a friend in the Office Of Emergency Management in Martin County, Florida - he stated that they are looking for our area being hit with nothing more than a category 1 on the Treasure Coast.
I hope he is right!


I live in Jensen Beach I hope to hell he is right... I havemy boards ready to go.. Pre-cut Pre Drilled.. I can do it in about 4 hours...

But I DON'T want to.. I will wait till this thing is right up my butt....

If we are expected to get a cat 1 on the west side.. Then I expect to see a Tropical storm on the east side by the time it gets here... I won't put up anything for that..
300. stormygace
8:33 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
a person who opts to stay, for whatever reason, deserves assistance as soon as humanly possible. This would not likely be during the storm. Since our country has demonstrated its amazing ability to deliver all types of assistance with blazing speed & efficiency throughout the world, it is not out of line to expect the same for a fellow American.

Afterall, nobody faulted the Thais for not following their elephants when they booked to higher ground before the Tsunami. Folks remain for all kinds of reasons - better to provide education beforehand & assistance afterwards - saving judgement for those who are omniscient ( eg - not me) :)

shoulda, woulda, coulda gets you nowhere - remember the goal - fatten up, swim upstream, spawn & die ! :)
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 1107
299. wileycoyote
8:27 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
For those in SW FL who are a few miles in and want to ride this out I have some experience for you. I helped with the Katrina cleanup in Biloxi earlier. We worked in one neighborhood 7 miles from the coast that was not in a flood zone. The water damage lines were at the seven foot mark on the drywall in the houses. Everything was destroyed in the houses. We went to homes where bodies were found because they couldn't get into the attic space. If you are near the coast, evacuate. Don't make your family and friends come looking for you.
298. billsfaninsofla
8:25 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
Bryan Norcross (Channel 4/Miami) says the south portion of Florida is much more likely to get Wilma than north becaude of the cold front coming down..
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
297. BRLaSonny913
8:23 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
rwdobson, kittreb, twifob, and weatherweasel:

Cone... yes, if I remember correctly, the very western edge of the cone was at the Louisiana/Mississippi stateline all week, which is what had *me* concerned. Any intelligent observer (and government officials *should* be included in that, or at least have advisors bringing them up to speed) should also have been suspicious all week long. However, I believe it's specifically because NHC didn't shift the track until Saturday that Nagin wasn't convinced of the need for mandatory evacuation until it was too late to do anything about those who could not evacuate on their own.

"you better be able to move with 2 days notice"... I agree, kittreb. However, as others have pointed out, there were many who were simply unable to evacuate due to their circumstances. A mandatory evacuation should have been backed by a predetermined government plan for the safe and timely evacuation of those people within as little as 48 (36??) hours.

"I just wish they wouldn't start screaming for help and expect the Coasties or police to risk their lives to save them from their stubborness, denial or just plain stupidity"... I agree to a point. That is, if it was because of stubborness, denial or just plain stupidity. If it was because of their having no means to evacuate, then I believe everything possible should be done to aid them, preferrably before disaster, but even after if need be.

Also, to those who have been involved in the Darwin discussion, I hesitate to say it, but perhaps there was an element of "natural selection" in the whole matter. But that's a debate I think we take on with some danger. LOL

Gee, I gotta get outta here. Bye all!!

Sonny
296. rwdobson
8:14 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
I'm not really surprised by Wilma, yet, although calling her a nutcase is a good description. right now the looney is meandering slowly, talking to herself, then will get a hair up her a$$ and start running...eventually.
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295. WeatherWeasel
8:11 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
So from my point of view....Wilma is a nutcase...surprise, surprise, surprise....
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 50
294. stormygace
8:10 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
oh - left off - if the person has already successfully bred. my bad :)
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 1107
293. NOLAinNC
8:09 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
I am told by a relative with interests in Bermuda that they have done much with their infrastructure to "hurricane-proof" the island. Buried electric lines, phone lines etc, better building codes. It seems that if we are going to build in coastal regions, more attention needs to be paid to this kind of thing so that fewer people have to evacuate in order to survive. Is it possible to build a house that would make it through a Cat 5? In NO, all houses should have a safe haven that is well above surge potential.
292. WeatherWeasel
8:07 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
Don't agree with you, Sonny. They project a cone of probable impact for a reason...forcast path is an educated guess, not a given. Anyone that looks at the projected path and says..."gee, I don't have to worry"...is being foolish. I'm a retired cop, and I see hurricane predictions like I see human behavior...make the best educated guess you can how someone is going to react to a given situation, go with that, but be prepared to be suprised.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 50
291. stormygace
8:06 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
Darwin's theory = natural selection, aka-survival of the fittest

Darwin Award - awarded for dying in an absolutely stultifying manner BEFORE one has reproduced. Amazingly stupid ways of dying are listed in the annual Darwin compendiums but noted to be ineligible for "a Darwin".
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 1107
290. GoldenGate
8:04 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
See ya Sonny - have a great time tonight!
289. twifob
8:03 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
BRLaSonny913
I have no objection to people deciding to "ride it out" ... I just wish they wouldn't start screaming for help and expect the Coasties or police to risk their lives to save them from their stubborness, denial or just plain stupidity.

I have a Dutch co-worker ... in the Netherlands, ALL evacuations are optional, but everyone knows that there will be NO RESCUERS if you decide not to evacuate. And they allow building in flood-prone areas along the rivers, but no one will insure the buildings. The property owner is on their own if they lose their house.
288. Bukwurm
8:03 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
"You have it all wrong its not Darwin's Theory its the Darwin Awards (LOL)"

Ahhh... but the Darwin Awards do call it "evolution in action." [g]

However, they also say regular, commnon stupidity doesn't count, it has to be spectacular. Too many people are idiots during hurricanes for them to be alegible for Darwin Awards.

Wind, not sure where you are, but please, if you're at ground zero, and it's a Cat 3 coming in, please write your next of kin info on your hand with indelible ink - save the coroner some time.

Of course, it's also possible you just like to stir up a rumpus. My guess is you are, at best, college age. And a guy. Am I correct?

(No offense to all the brilliant college age guys on here, but it is a truism, unfortunately, that MOST people who post comments that are totally off the wall come from the guys whose brains are running a bit behind in the social development arena. We gals have our own idiosyncracies.... [g])
287. cat1cane
8:00 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
Cograts, BRL!
286. BRLaSonny913
7:59 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
Ok, gang. I have to take a break. My 18 yearold daughter is getting married tonight, and I'm due at the church in 2 hours. I'll check in late tonight after the wedding for just a little bit.

Hang in there everyone... we're all gonna get through this. To those of you who make the decision to leave and, therefore, we don't hear from you til after the storm, God bless and keep you and we'll talk to you next week hopefully.

Sonny
285. GoldenGate
7:58 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
NOLA, I agree. Even though it's been over 20 years I can still remember vividly what it feels like to have $5 that has to last until the next paycheck. I at least knew that if things got really bad I could turn to friends or family, hat in hand. Most of those Louisiana people would have considered me rich by comparison. I can understand how it would be impossible for some people to evacuate.
284. kittreb
7:56 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
That should tell you then that if you live around the Gulf, you better be able to move with 2 days notice....
283. rwdobson
7:55 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
Hmm, the track shifted a couple hundred miles over 2 days? That's hardly "blowing it". That is just part of the forecast uncertainty.
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
282. NOLAinNC
7:54 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
Socal, I don't think Nagin's response was perfect, but
New Orleans is unique in the depth of poverty and VERY
bad education system. Many people didn't leave
because 1) they had no transportation 2) they were worried
about their social security checks or their homes in bad
neighborhoods 3) they didn't have the education to
understand the threat for themselves. 4) they had no place
to go, no place to bring pets or no resources.
But many people got out - it could have been
much worse.
281. BRLaSonny913
7:52 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
rwdobson and socalweathernut...

NHC frankly did "blow it" with Katrina, since they led us to believe for the entire week that Katrina was headed to FL panhandle, and then change it to SE LA with only 2 days to prepare. 2 days is not enough time to go from "oh it's somebody else's problem" to "omg, it's coming HERE?!?!", IMO

Sonny
280. westcoastfla
7:51 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
found this site from another blog. scroll down and look at the pictures from today from cozumel
Link
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
279. cat1cane
7:50 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
Everyone should be as prepared as they can. There is no reason to fault anyone for stocking upon gas and water. In fact, it's downright irresponsible not to stock up. I won't be the one waiting for the government to bring me a bottle of water, that's for sure.
278. crow
7:50 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
Slow as it is, may be we are seeing a non=event that will become a rainstorm..WEST in the Gulf.
277. Hecker
7:49 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
The eye is filling in a little bit.
Member Since: June 29, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 309
276. seflagamma
7:48 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
Sarasota, thanks for getting back. by the way, you can call me "gamma" since there are so many on here with SEFL attached to their names. It sounds like you are probably ok, I thought you were right on the Gulf Beach. Hopefully it will not get that far north for you to be on the South side of the storm. All any of us can do is prepare for the worse and hope for the best, then if we are spared, be there to help the people that get hit.
Take care, Gamma
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40920
275. toadfish
7:48 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
windnwaves: Would you do me a favor? Would you please go to Biloxi, MI, and find some place where some people still are, and tell them that Katrina was all hype? And when you've done that, go to Cozumel and do the same thing about Wilma. I'll even tell you how to say that in Spanish, if you like.
Member Since: June 26, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
274. TheLimey
7:45 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
Windnwaves, I don't know where you're based, but I know lots of folks in Dade County who got badly affected by Katrina, in particular by the flooding that occured.

273. GoldenGate
7:43 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
Sonny, you're right about that. I'm not counting myself safe by any stretch of the imagination. It looks now like I have a little more time to make a decision. The slow-moving aspect of this storm may work to SW FL's advantage. Since people started leaving earlier, maybe some of the congestion on the roads will be mitigated if the exodus is stretched out over several days. I'm ready to go if I need to. Everything is packed & by the door, house is secure. What I need to do now is pick a do-or-die decision time.
272. socalweathernut
7:41 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
windnwaves,
The NHC had the call very good for Katrina. Had Nagin acted like the Emergency Operations Officer that he is supposed to be, there would have been much less problem. He was/is more worried about his tax dollars than the public good.
Member Since: September 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
271. caneman
7:39 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
Just spoke with a friend in the Office Of Emergency Management in Martin County, Florida - he stated that they are looking for our area being hit with nothing more than a category 1 on the Treasure Coast.
I hope he is right!


Makes two of us!
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 100
270. oriondarkwood
7:38 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
Bukwurm,

You have it all wrong its not Darwin's Theory its the Darwin Awards (LOL)
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
269. rwdobson
7:37 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
The NHC blew the Katrina call? How, exactly?
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268. sarasotack
7:35 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
Seflagamma (did I spell that right? lol) My bad, I'm 2ish miles from Little Sarasota Bay, then there's Siesta Key, then the Gulf. My neighbors said that slowed things down a bit for us, most are staying with just a few leaving. It's really hard to know what to do to be honest. I have a generator that I've gotten gas for, stocked up on food and water and am praying I am doing what's best for my family and I.

This whole thing is kind of scary, surreal in that you don't know if you're taking it too light or too dramatic. I'm thinking I'm not alone in these thoughts... Unless someone knows for sure, then just tell me already!!!! :~)

267. EllistonVA
7:34 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
windnwaves -it takes a lot of time to move that many people. If you wait until you absolutely know that it will hit your house, you've waited too long and the most you will be able to do is sit in traffic 5 miles from your house for the storm.
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266. BRLaSonny913
7:32 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
GoldenGate, I don't know that I'd put much stock in that cat 2 strength at landfall forecast at this point. The thing is that right now we just simply don't know what Wilma will do once it gets through with Cozumel and Cancun. The only thing we can do is for all of us to do exactly what we are doing now... wait and watch... don't turn your back on, or a blind eye to, this monster, because she truly is a deceitful b****, and I still believe that at this point she could honestly do anything.

Regarding something that LdyAvalon said earlier about leaving evacuation to personal decision: while I'm glad we have NOAA, NWS, etc. advising us all, and governments in place to issue mandatory evacuation orders, I do not think it's unreasonable to expect everyone to take a little personal responsibility at times like this. And I still say, if someone is in the projected path of what could still be a serious storm if it sticks to that path, and he/she is *able* to leave, then they have to decide to do what they think best for them and their loved ones. The ultimate decision, whether or not governments mandate evacuation, is a personal decision, and nothing else, IMHO.

Sonny
264. EllistonVA
7:28 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
nice analogy kittreb :-)
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263. kittreb
7:27 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
As I see it, the bottom line is if you know a storm is out there it is your responsibility to find out where, what it's doing and decide how it may affect you. Then make a decision on what you will do. If you smell smoke in your house, wouldn't you investigate to see how serious a problem you had, then decide whether to get out or pull the burnt toast out of the oven?
262. EllistonVA
7:26 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
I personally think that the NHC does a heck of a job given how amazingly hard it is to forecast these things. In general I think that the government does a decent job of informing the public and helping out when these things hit. I'm just saying that as we've seen this year in the difference between the responses in say Katrina and Rita, the abilities of local officials vary widely and people need to take that into account when making decisions. I've been in one evacuation in FL (for Floyd) and I was amazed at how well it was handled with so many people moving. I've seen other times when it seems like the officials have no clue.
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261. Bukwurm
7:24 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
Toadfish and Globalize, when there are mandatory evacuations up here in the panhandle, a lot of towns and/or counties have their law enforcement go door-to-door in the evacuation areas. When they find someone who has decided to defy the order and stay home, a lot of the jurisdictions have the officers request "next of kin" information, telling the holdouts that it will save a lot of manhours after the storm, if they already know who to notify of the holdout's death. (I'm paraphrasing here, as I'm sure the officers are a bit more polite). This does two things.

First, it centralizes the info, and WILL save man hours.

Secondly, from what I've heard, over half the holdouts change their minds, and evacuuate after all, so lives are undoubtedly saved.

Maybe for the major hurricanes, some sort of comment like this could be included. Perhaps:

"This storm is a major threat to life. If you decide to ignore your local government's evacuation orders, please call 1-800-DEATH ID (1-800-332-8443) with your name, address and next of kin information, so we can find your remains quickly after the storm, before decomposition makes identification difficult, if not impossible. If you won't try to stay alive, at least keep your loved ones from wondering about you for days or weeks."

Obviously, that's a bit strong, but something like that WOULD make people pay attention.

I am always amazed at the number of 911 calls made during the height of a hurricane, asking for rescue. This, despite multiple announcements that no rescue attempts are possible at those times. The personal touch does work - maybe a strongly worded public announcement would, also.

Of course, maybe it's just Darwin's theory in action. [g]
260. SEFL
7:21 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
"criticism of NHC: they act like they know what they are talking about when they don't. that's the problem. it's not their fault they are clueless, just that they don't admit it. in addition, they try and control emotions. if they feel people are letting their guard down, they hype things up."

That is undoubtedly one of the dumbest comments I have ever read on here.
259. toadfish
7:19 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
Sorry, Windnwaves, I don't buy it. Just go back and look at Knabb's forecast discussion (Discussion #25). You can't tell me that he claimed to be certain about what would happen next, not even close.
Member Since: June 26, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
258. globalize
7:18 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
EllistonVa- without the common purpose of the government in educating the public and facilitating public awareness, there would be much more misery from these storms. We are essentially discussing how things might be made better for the public as a whole.
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
257. NYPD2PSL
7:14 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
Just spoke with a friend in the Office Of Emergency Management in Martin County, Florida - he stated that they are looking for our area being hit with nothing more than a category 1 on the Treasure Coast.
I hope he is right!
256. NOLAinNC
7:14 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
On evacuating, if you have a personal arbitrary rule, (like if they evacuate the Keys, then I'm leaving OR if a hurricane gets into the gulf, then I go) it is easier to deal with the situation. Rather than relying on imperfect forecasts (we're dealing with nature!), set a rule that you can live with financially and just do that every time. It's like always going to the top floor of a parking deck or parking as far from the grocery store entrance as possible. Takes a lot of the emotional stress out of things.
255. globalize
7:11 PM GMT on October 21, 2005
Yes, and just a little real input by the Fed to educate the public about the momentum of wind and water would change coastal design and construction, and perhaps people could indeed live a little more safely on the coast. Right now, the public is in the dark. But we are all pay for coastal destruction. I dread looking at my insurance premiums six months from now.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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