Rare January tornado outbreak kills two, injures 100 in Alabama

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:46 PM GMT on January 23, 2012

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The calendar says it's the coldest month of winter, but today's weather is more typical of March, as a vigorous spring-like storm system has spawned a rare and deadly January tornado outbreak. Twenty tornadoes were reported in Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee last night and this morning, killing at least two, injuring 100, and causing major damage. Two deaths were reported in Canter Point and one unconfirmed death in Oak Grove in Alabama, from a tornado that ripped through the area near 3:30 am EST. The deaths were the first of the 2012 tornado season. In Clanton, about 50 miles south of Birmingham, Alabama, a separate tornado hit near 8:12 am EST this morning, trapping people in overturned trailer homes, destroying the WKLF radio studio, and toppling a 302-foot high transmission tower.


Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 9:45 am EST Monday January 23, 2012, of the major spring-like storm that spawned tornadoes over the Southern U.S. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image of the tornado that hit Clanton, Alabama this morning, trapping people in overturned trailer homes, destroying the WKLF radio studio, and toppling a 302-foot high transmission tower.

Significant historical January tornado outbreaks
Historically, January has been the least active month for tornadoes in the U.S. According to the Tornado History Project, during the 61-year period 1950 - 2010, 1223 January tornadoes occurred--an average of twenty per year. There have been two Januarys with no reported tornadoes--2003 and 1986. Thus far in 2012, there have been 44 preliminary tornado reports, so we are already at double the historical January average, with a week still to go in the month. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put Alabama and Georgia in their "Slight Risk" area for severe weather the remainder of today, so it is likely we will add a few more tornadoes to this month's tally before the outbreak is finished. January 2012 appears likely to become one of the top-five busiest months for January tornadoes in recorded history. Only four years since 1950 have had more than 50 January tornadoes:

January 1999 218
January 2008 88
January 1975 54
January 1997 50

The most recent significant January tornado outbreak occurred last year on January 1, 2011, when seven tornadoes, including two EF-3s, touched down in Mississippi, injuring two people.

The most prolific January tornado outbreak on record occurred January 21 - 22, 1999, when 126 tornadoes, including one violent F-4, hit Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, Texas, and Alabama, killing nine people. A separate outbreak four days earlier, on January 17, spawned 22 tornadoes.

On January 7 - 11, 2008, a series of 75 tornadoes hit the U.S. This second busiest-ever U.S. January tornado outbreak hit southwestern Missouri, northwestern Arkansas and the surrounding areas the hardest. A strong supercell in northern Illinois and southeastern Wisconsin produced that region's first January tornadoes since 1967. Four people were killed, and the tornadoes did $88 million in damage. Fifteen strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes were reported.

The deadliest January tornado since record keeping began in 1950 occurred on January 23, 1969, when an F-4 tornado hit a 5-county region south of Jackson Mississippi, killing 32 people.

Spring-like thunderstorms hit Chicago
Thunderstorms along the cold front from the storm that spawned today's deadly tornadoes rumbled through Chicago, Illinois last night, dropping over one-half inch of rain on ground covered by four inches of snow. Spring-like January thunderstorms in Chicago used to be a rare occurrence, but have become increasingly common in recent years. During the 50-year period 1947- 1996, Chicago's O'Hare Airport recorded ten days with thunder, on days when the high temperature reached at least 40°F. In the 16-year period 1997- 2012, there have been nine such days, so January spring-like thunderstorms have roughly tripled in frequency in Chicago in recent years. January 2008 set the record for most January thunderstorm days in Chicago, with three.

Big solar flare headed toward Earth
This morning at 03:39 UTC, big sunspot 1402 erupted, sending a coronal mass ejection (CME) headed towards Earth. This CME is expected to set off a solar storm on January 24 - 25. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is advising that high-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms; long-duration storms may cause transformer damage. Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; possible changes in satellite drag affect orbit predictions. HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes, and aurora may be seen as low as New York, Idaho, mid-Aleutians. According to NOAA, this is the strongest solar storm since May 2005.

Jeff Masters

Because the night belongs to lovers. (Altred)
Because the night belongs to lovers.

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348. HurricaneDean07
1:51 AM GMT on January 25, 2012
Funso appears more lopsided to the south as of now, and the structure has a weakening appearance, good news though, weakening or not, its still going out to sea...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
347. HurricaneDean07
1:42 AM GMT on January 25, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Silly guy

You can't forecast 2013 23 days into 2012

Silly guy

figured id take a whack at it, knowing el nino will likely be in play during the 2013 season, well, unless the nino fades over spring 13'...

Anyway, Funso looks to be fading, expect low end category 4 strength or category 3 at next advisory, the Eye has became weaker in appearance, and the structure is not as impressive as earlier today...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
346. SPLbeater
4:05 PM GMT on January 24, 2012
Just as I thought. No threat to land!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
345. SPLbeater
3:58 PM GMT on January 24, 2012
morning all. only about 46 hours until i am another year older!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
344. Minnemike
3:58 PM GMT on January 24, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

why has Cyclones not been stronger?
i'll respond with my limited knowledge, forgive me if i'm wrong, but cyclones and severe storms operate by very different mechanisms. they cannot be equated as equal variables for trends brought about by warming, as one feeds energy from the ocean and the other results from a litany of land/surface conditions whereby available energy is complex. in addition, the inhibiting factors against a tropical cyclone utilizing the heat content available provides yet another layer of complex variable that warming may heighten.

in an increasingly warmer atmosphere it makes more sense that greater severity of tornadic storms and their frequency would be seen sooner than tropical storm anomalies, as a result of global warming. when we look at the inhibition of vertical shear in the Atlantic the past season, that could be a mechanism of warming. but to have the extremes of continental air masses coupled with extreme jet configurations, tornadic activity will heighten. i do think the warming of the atmosphere and oceans will amplify extreme jet patterns and collisions of such air masses that promotes tornadic storms and intensity.
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
343. drg0dOwnCountry
3:46 PM GMT on January 24, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

why has Cyclones not been stronger?


The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season: another strangely active one

The season featured a huge number of named storms--nineteen--tying 2011 with 2010, 1995, and 1887 as the 3rd busiest year for tropical storms. Only 2005 and 1933 had more named storms since record keeping began in 1851. However, 2011 had an unusually low percentage of its named storms reach hurricane strength. The year started out with eight consecutive tropical storms that failed to reach hurricane strength--the first time on record the Atlantic has seen that many storms in row not reach hurricane strength. We had a near-average average number of hurricanes in 2011--seven--meaning that only 37% of this year's named storms made it to hurricane strength. Normally, 55 - 60% of all named storms intensify to hurricane strength in the Atlantic. There were three major hurricanes in 2011, which is one above average, and the total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)--a measure of the destructive potential of this season's storms--was about 20% above average. WU November 2011
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
342. AussieStorm
3:14 PM GMT on January 24, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Outbreak of a century? No. I never thought I'd say this, but the Earth is warming. That means there is an increasing amount of moist, warm air across the United States, which can ultimately lead to more destructive and violent storms.

Who is to say we won't have an outbreak that is worse?

why has Cyclones not been stronger?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
341. LargoFl
2:42 PM GMT on January 24, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Outbreak of a century? No. I never thought I'd say this, but the Earth is warming. That means there is an increasing amount of moist, warm air across the United States, which can ultimately lead to more destructive and violent storms.

Who is to say we won't have an outbreak that is worse?
i have to agree with you there, now i wonder what the warmer temps are going to have with the tropical season,stronger or bigger hurricanes? any thoughts on this?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38525
340. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:24 PM GMT on January 24, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Let me say there's no way there will be a month period as bad as April 25th - May 25th for another century or two. I mean, 6 EF5s? Around 1000 tornadoes in April or May alone? 500 deaths? 3000 injuries? Countless major towns being wiped off of map? There's no way this will happen again for century or two. These storms was truly "The Outbreak of the Century"... it's heart breaking :\

Outbreak of a century? No. I never thought I'd say this, but the Earth is warming. That means there is an increasing amount of moist, warm air across the United States, which can ultimately lead to more destructive and violent storms.

Who is to say we won't have an outbreak that is worse?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
339. GeoffreyWPB
1:42 PM GMT on January 24, 2012


Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11159
338. PensacolaDoug
1:33 PM GMT on January 24, 2012
Good reply Nea.
Food for thought.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
337. yqt1001
1:31 PM GMT on January 24, 2012
Funso is looking nice this morning.



This is why I track tropical cyclones. :D
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
336. PlazaRed
1:27 PM GMT on January 24, 2012
Noting:-335. Neapolitan
"Based on everything I see, I wouldn't put my money on the ice surviving. Unfortunately."
I think that the only kind of betting we can engage in with the Arctic sea ice scenario, is the date it will all have gone/melted!
At that point the Arctic sea ice sheet will have taken on a form more like the ice on the Hudson Bay.
There is another possibility with this type of "new ice," that being that it may not join up into one large sheet, due to currents and possible localised warming, high winds etc.
I think it would be a error to assume that the Arctic will remain ice free throughout the entire winter, as in order to achieve this there would have to be some drastic or catastrophic changes in the climate, the nature of which are at this time hard to contemplate, let alone predict. I'm open to any reasonable suggestions what these might be though.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2079
335. Neapolitan
1:04 PM GMT on January 24, 2012
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Nea? Any comments?

Yeah, we had talked about that BBC article a lot over on Dr. Rood's blog when it came out back in the summer. In short, the MSM got this wrong (imagine that). The actual scientific literature didn't state unequivocally "there's no danger of reaching a tipping point"; it said that such a tipping point could theoretically be avoided--that is, the Arctic Sea ice death spiral reversed--if policies that climate science deniers have successfully demonized were implemented in a timely fashion. But that hasn't happened, nor does it appear likely to. Here's a graph of the spiral:

Uh-oh

Now, having said all that: while I believe--as do many experts--that the Arctic Sea will be ice free in summer (historically the first or second weak in September) within the next five or six years, there's still many years or decades to go before it's ice free all year-round; after all, it is in darkness six months out of every 12. It's important to note, however, that a summer loss of all ice would obviously mean the end of thick multi-year ice, leaving only fresh, brittle, and easily-melted first-year ice.

FYI, the following graph was published over on Joe Romm's blog yesterday:

uh-oh

Based on everything I see, I wouldn't put my money on the ice surviving. Unfortunately.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13537
334. PlazaRed
1:01 PM GMT on January 24, 2012
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Nea? Any comments?

Thanks for the link.
The one overriding factor that must be taken into account is that when the driftwood, shore wave lines and polar bear bones were laid down so to say. The CO2 levels were not at almost 400 parts per million, this is going to part of the recipe for the future ice melts.
I personally don't think it a matter of if the tipping point will be reached or missed? Its only a matter of when. Maybe sometime between 5 and 20 years as there is not going to be a reduction in greenhouse gases. I think the tipping point will be inevitable. Just my opinion of course.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2079
333. goosegirl1
12:49 PM GMT on January 24, 2012
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Nea? Any comments?

Sorry, I'm not Nea. However, the last three paragraphs of the article gave me pause- seems to me the scientists are saying the process may be "slower" but certainly are not saying "isn't happening."
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1230
332. PensacolaDoug
12:28 PM GMT on January 24, 2012
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Link


Scientists say fears of "Arctic tipping point" may be unfounded.
Article from The BBC.



Nea? Any comments?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
331. AussieStorm
12:01 PM GMT on January 24, 2012
Whenever there is a strong La Nina, the east coast of Australia will get more rain that normal. I just hope and pray we don't get another Yasi in the next few months.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
330. AussieStorm
11:59 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
NSW north coast braces as floodwaters rise

Residents are bracing for major flooding on the New South Wales mid-north coast, with some communities already isolated by rising waters.

The State Emergency Service (SES) says the main concern is the Bellinger Valley, where the town of Bellingen has been cut in two by the swollen Bellinger River, with both halves of the town now isolated.

More than a dozen homes and businesses there have been inundated.

Assistant commissioner Greg Newton, from the State Emergency Service, says other small communities have also been affected.

"Down around Darkwood, we've got about 300 residents who've been isolated by floodwaters throughout the Bellinger Valley and various other areas there are isolations of various people," he said.

The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting further heavy rain tonight and over the next few days and a severe weather warning remains in place for the Northern Tablelands, Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast.

SES spokeswoman Becky Gollings says holidaymakers and farmers in the area need to make preparations.

"All those rural landholders, if they can move their livestock and equipment to higher ground," she said.

"Those holidaymakers who are out at the moment and especially for Australia Day, if you're camping near a river or a creek or a causeway, move out of those areas because they can become flooded quite quickly and people can get into trouble."

People living in remote parts of the Thora and Kalang valleys are cut off by floodwater.

Darcy Browning has lived in the upper Bellinger catchment for almost 50 years and says it is shaping up to be a big flood.

"We have what I regard as, at this stage, the bottom end of what I consider to be a major flood and it's still raining very heavily," he said.

"Of course as I live up the top end of Darkwood everybody up here is well and truly isolated."

A landslide and waterfalls have blocked the Waterfall Way between Dorrigo and Bellingen.

The riverfront caravan park downstream near the coast at Repton is being evacuated as a precautionary measure.

There is also a flood warning for the Orara River west of Coffs Harbour, with the Orara Way between Coffs Harbour and Grafton cut off.

Flood watches are in place for the Macleay River near Kempsey and the Hastings near Port Macquarie.

The forecast is for seven more days of rain.

Big surf

Meanwhile, strong easterly winds and large waves are expected over the next few days.

The weather bureau is predicting swells of up to three metres(10ft).

The big surf has already led to beach closures around Port Macquarie and lifeguards are monitoring the situation closely.

Senior lifeguard Grant Hudson says beach-goers must be extremely careful.

"With so much swell in our beaches at the moment, and with a strong wind gust, we can see a bit of a spike in swell," he said.

"We do ask all beach users if they do go to use the beach over the next few days, with this warning being out, always check with a lifeguard or surf lifesaver.

"Also, if you are going rock fishing, do stay away from those dangerous areas."

A cold front is making its way towards the coast from the southern Tasman Sea.

Mr Hudson says the beach probably is not the place to be on Australia Day.

"It is a very easterly swell and the wind is coming form that easterly direction, all the beaches are going to be affected," he said.

"If you do go to the beach, just make sure you do have a chat with someone, the lifeguards or the surf savers.

"That way you'll know why it's open and why it may be closed.

"The more information you do have out there, the safer you will be."

© ABC 2012
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
329. AussieStorm
11:56 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Situation deteriorating in flooded south-east Qld

Emergency Management Queensland (EMQ) says torrential rain that has caused chaos around the state's south-east on Tuesday is only going to get heavier overnight.

Hundreds of millimetres of rain has been dumped across the Gold and Sunshine coasts and Brisbane, bringing flash flooding, landslips and hundreds of road closures.

Evacuation centres have been opened at Narangba and Deception Bay, north of Brisbane, with about a dozen homes evacuated in Burpengary.


The Bureau of Meteorology says flooding could worsen in some areas with more rain expected across the region overnight and wet weather forecast for the rest of the week.

Police have reported dozens of traffic incidents since the big wet began and officials are warning people to stay out of floodwaters.

EMQ director of operations Warren Bridson says the situation is deteriorating.

"The rain is going to get heavier particularly between Maroochydore and Brisbane city in the next couple of hours, which means our State Emergency Service personnel are escalating their response," he said.

"We've had about 500 calls for assistance up until now and of course that is increasing all the time."

Mr Bridson says emergency crews will work through the night.

"The predictions are... more rain tonight and again tomorrow. I would expect the disaster management systems will escalate tomorrow if that transpires therefore there will be more activities around the local disaster management groups," he said.

He says it will be a long night for residents throughout the south-east.

"We're asking the community to really be aware tonight about what's predicted," he said.

"To take care on the roads and to be patient if they make calls to the State Emergency Service because it's going to be a long, hard night for the SES people in the south-east."

Weather bureau spokeswoman Michelle Berry says the wet conditions are likely to continue until next Tuesday.

"This is certainly quite a severe event that's occurring throughout south-eastern Queensland at the moment," she said.

"We can get these very moist air streams through the summer months.

"It doesn't have the same depth of moisture as what we were seeing through January of last year but it's certainly a very severe event ands that's why we are warning for it continuing into tomorrow also."

Rescues
Twelve homes were evacuated as a precaution at Burpengary, north of Brisbane, and another dozen homes have been flooded further north on the Sunshine Coast.

About 275 mm(10.8in) has fallen at Caloundra since 9am AEST Tuesday.

Thunderstorms were also dumping heavy rain across the north of the state, with more than 100mm(3.9in) recorded near Innisfail and more than 140mm(5.5in) near Mackay since Monday.

At Boondall, in Brisbane's north, a childcare centre was inundated and the downpour also caused delays at Brisbane airport.

Three people escaped after their car was stuck on a flooded road in Brisbane's south-west and cars were seen floating on some streets in the inner city.

Energex says power has been cut to 9,500 homes and businesses across the south-east.

The downpour has prompted SEQ Water's flood operations centre to order releases from Leslie Harrison Dam and North Pine Dam.

There are no releases planned yet for Wivenhoe Dam, which is at 76 per cent and capacity and rising.

Elsewhere, homes are being sandbagged in Ipswich, west of Brisbane, while a motorist had to be rescued from a flooded road this morning on the Gold Coast.

Nearly 200 mm(7.8in) of rain was recorded in the Gold Coast hinterland in 24 hours.

Swift water rescue specialists are on standby with localised flooding expected to worsen on the Gold Coast.

Queensland Fire and Rescue Service spokesman Bruce Byatt has warned people to stay out of floodwaters.

"In a very short space of time you can be in difficulty and lose your lives," he said.

© ABC 2012
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
328. AussieStorm
11:52 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Wild weather over Top End but less cyclone danger

The weather bureau has downgraded the chance of a cyclone forming off the Northern Territory coast this week.

Forecaster Chris Davies says a low pressure system is currently hovering near the Tiwi Islands and starting to move south on to land.

He says even though a cyclone is now unlikely, the system will bring increased showers to most parts of the Top End.

"The probability of it developing into a cyclone in the next couple of days has decreased," he said.

"Our tropical cyclone outlook now reads for the next few days: low, low and then moderate.

"We are keeping a moderate on for the last day of the outlook because there is a small chance a new low might form in the Timor Sea on that day."

The bureau has issued a number of warnings for the Top End.

Heavy rain, damaging winds, large waves and abnormally high tides are forecast for the northern Darwin-Daly and Arnhem districts,.

There is a wind warning for Northern Territory coastal waters between the Daly River mouth and Cape Shield.

Senior forecaster David Matthews says there is also a risk of localised flooding in the Darwin-Daly and Arnhem Districts.

"We are expecting isolated heavy falls, possibly up to about 150 millimetres, scattered falls of 20 to 50 millimetres and isolated falls of 50 to 100 millimetres across the Arnhem and northwest Darwin Daly district," he said.

"(There will be) abnormally high tides and large waves because we do have a king tide coming up in the next couple of days across the coast."

© ABC 2012
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
327. AussieStorm
11:50 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Bureau monitors cyclone potential


The Bureau of Meteorology is monitoring two tropical lows located off Western Australia's north-west coast, which could form into cyclones by Australia Day.

A monsoonal trough sitting off the Pilbara is bringing the lows closer to the WA coast.

Forecaster Andrew Burton says the lows are likely to bring heavy rains and strong winds later in the week.

"They're going to sort of battle it out to form into a tropical cyclone and it'll be where that ends up happening and it's interaction with the other low developing near Darwin that will govern what happens this week," he said.


© ABC 2012
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
326. AussieStorm
11:49 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Tropical Low imbedded in the ITCZ unloading on Darwin and islands to the north.


Click Image for loop.

Latest Weather Observations for Darwin Daily total till 21:00 149.8mm(5.89in)

Latest Weather Observations for Point Fawcett Daily total till 21:00, 205mm(8.07in)
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
325. AussieStorm
11:40 AM GMT on January 24, 2012


Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 12:42pm WST on Tuesday the 24th of January 2012
Valid until midnight WST Friday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
An active monsoon trough lies between 12S 90E to 16S 114E to 16S 125E. The
trough is expected to intensify over the next couple of days and by Wednesday it
is likely to be producing gale force northwesterly winds over areas to the south
of the Indonesian archipelago, including Christmas Island.

A low has formed in the monsoon trough near 16S 114E moving west southwest at
around 11 knots.
It may develop into a tropical cyclone late Wednesday evening
or more likely on Thursday. The system is expected to continue to intensify and
begin to move south on Friday. Gales associated with the system are not expected
to affect the coast on Wednesday or Thursday, but there is a risk that coastal
communities near the Northwest Cape may be affected on Friday.

People in the Gascoyne, Pilbara and Kimberley are advised to keep up to date
with weather forecasts.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming in the Western Region:
Wednesday :Moderate
Thursday :High
Friday :High


NOTES: Development Potential is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
324. trunkmonkey
11:39 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Texas drought will ease this week, along with the SE portion of the USA, the drought monitor will continue to say the SE will be in a drought condition even tough they will have over 10 inches of rain by the time January is over!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 581
323. drg0dOwnCountry
11:25 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Hurricane damage to surge

The impact of climate and demographic changes may make serious storms like Hurricane Katrina more frequent occurrences, according a recently published study.

The economic damage from hurricanes may quadruple by the end of the century as populations, global wealth and the temperature of the earth increase, according to research conducted by professors from Yale and MIT. The study, published Jan. 15 in Nature Climate Change, also concludes that the United States is uniquely vulnerable to the forecasted cyclones. The study’s authors cautioned that more research should be done before implementing any specific policy changes to deal with the increased destructiveness of hurricanes.

“This is the first real attempt to understand the influence of both demographic and climate change on hurricane damage,” said Kerry Emanuel, professor of atmospheric sciences at MIT and a co-author of the study. Robert Mendelsohn GRD ’78, a co-author of the study and economics professor at the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, added that unlike previous studies which separated economic and scientific analysis, this study established a new integration assessment model to best incorporate the scientific and economic data.

Emanuel led a team of researchers to predict how climate change might impact hurricane activity between now and 2100. They planted potential storms called “seeds” in four established climate prediction models that measure meteorological data to forecast where hurricanes will develop. The computerized models enabled the researchers to track the development, intensity and landfall site for each of the storms.

A tropical storm is an engine that is based on the difference in temperature and humidity between the sea level and the upper atmosphere,” Mendelsohn said. “The sea is going to get warmer and the difference is going to get bigger.”

Mendelsohn’s team at Yale then used current data and demographic forecasts to calculate the economic damage of each hurricane. They also calculated the financial impact of forecasted hurricanes without climate change as a control group.

The results of the study indicate that while climate change will have little impact on small storms, large hurricanes may become more frequent and more intense. The model predicted that the hurricane landfalls in East Asia and along the North American coast will account for 88 percent of the forecasted damage. Both regions are characterized by dense population clusters in vulnerable coastal areas. The researchers determined that even without the anticipated climate change, the annual economic damages from hurricanes may more than double from $26 billion per year to $56 billion per year by 2100 as the global population increases to nine billion. With climate change, the researchers concluded that the damage may quadruple to $109 billion.

Roger Pielke, professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado at Boulder, wrote in an email to the News that the paper serves as a “warning” to those who advocate for action against man-made climate change while ignoring social factors. He added that the study is “consistent” with the conclusions of his previous research YALE DAILY
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
322. ShenValleyFlyFish
10:53 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
321. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:36 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST NORTHERN TERRITORY AREA BETWEEN 125E-142E
2:15 pm CST January 24 2012
================================================= ===

An active monsoon trough is located near the north coast. A Tropical Low, 999 hPa, was located near 11.6S 131.3E at 12:30pm CST on 24 January, about 100 km north northeast of Darwin and moving southwest at 7 km/h. The low is expected to take a more southerly track later today then move inland over the Top End tomorrow.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================================

Wednesday: Low
Thursday: Low
Friday: Low
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
320. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:36 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL LOW 11U
3:00 PM WST January 24 2012
================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (996 hPa) located at 16.0S 112.6E or 680 km north northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity:
======================

12 HRS: 16.5S 110.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 16.9S 109.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 18.5S 109.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 20.1S 109.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

System assigned T1.0 at 00Z. Yesterday the cloud system center could not be defined in an area less than 2.5 degrees. Overnight convection consolidated near a developing low level circulation center. ASCAT and visible imagery show the low level circulation center gradually becoming better defined but low level cloud lines are still poorly organized.

The system has shown further improvement over the last 6 hours and FT is set at 1.5. Shear is generally low south of 15S and models indicate the system will experience low shear for the next 72 hours. Combined with sea surface temperatures over 30 degrees the system is expected to develop faster than the standard Dvorak rate and may reach tropical cyclone intensity by early tomorrow.

The subsequent track may develop on the rate of intensification with some models indicating the system will take a southerly or south southeasterly track on Thursday. On Friday the system is likely to be near 20S. Sea surface temperature decrease south of 20S and the system is likely to be slow moving which may cause upwelling and reduce Sea surface temperatures. As shear remains light, weakening in the longer term is more likely to be due to low oceanic heat content.

The monsoon trough is expected to remain strong over the next few days, resulting in strong northwesterly flow extending well to the east of the system center and bringing moderate swell and increased rainfall to coastal areas of the Pilbara and Kimberley.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin/advisory from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at around 13:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
319. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:35 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FUNSO (08-20112012)
10:00 AM RET January 24 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (936 hPa) located at 20.5S 39.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 7 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D0.5/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
18 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 160 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 21.5S 39.5E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 22.5S 39.2E - 115 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 24.3S 39.2E - 105 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 26.0S 40.1E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

After a maximum at 2030 PM UTC yesterday, system intensity has rapidly fluctuated in relationship with its small size. Eye is still minuscule within a very cold 90 to 120 NM central dense overcast.

Within the next 24 hours, Funso remains under the steering influence of a ridge situated in the east and is expected to keep a southward track. Beyond, ridge moves away eastward as a shallow trough transist in the south of the system from west to east. Funso might decelerate and take a south southeastward track. Within the next 48 hours, environmental conditions remain very favorable under a upper level ridge and over high heat content waters.

From j+3, system should continue to track southeastward by accelerating with a deeper trough coming from the west in the south of the system. At the same time, a westerly vertical wind shear should slowly strengthen and Funso will encounter more and more cold waters. So system might progressively weaken.

Available numerical weather prediction models are now in good agreement for this scenario.

Inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa Island) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
318. KoritheMan
7:31 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


would also be nice if you knew what Christ was talking about before you loose your head trying to correct a follower. I am a Christian, i know the right from wrong in terms of the path to heaven and what isnt. No one can intimidate that. including, YOU


Why do you see everything as an affront to your faith? Seriously, grow up.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 576 Comments: 20609
317. KoritheMan
7:25 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Let me say there's no way there will be a month period as bad as April 25th - May 25th for another century or two. I mean, 6 EF5s? Around 1000 tornadoes in April or May alone? 500 deaths? 3000 injuries? Countless major towns being wiped off of map? There's no way this will happen again for century or two. These storms was truly "The Outbreak of the Century"... it's heart breaking :\


I seem to recall Mike Bettes saying the same thing about the 2005 hurricane season when 2004 was so terribly destructive.

For clarity's sake, I pretty much agree with you, but it's still well within the realm of statistical possibility.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 576 Comments: 20609
316. Bluestorm5
7:19 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't know...This year has already started off worse than 2011. We're slightly ahead in the number of tornadoes now compared to last year.

Let me say there's no way there will be a month period as bad as April 25th - May 25th for another century or two. I mean, 6 EF5s? Around 1000 tornadoes in April or May alone? 500 deaths? 3000 injuries? Countless major towns being wiped off of map? There's no way this will happen again for century or two. These storms was truly "The Outbreak of the Century"... it's heart breaking :\
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8009
315. Grothar
5:54 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
La Ni�a events tend to begin in autumn, mature during winter, spring and early summer, then begin to decay in late summer. Events generally end in the autumn. The greatest impact normally occurs during the winter, spring and early summer period, and is shown here in darker blue.

La Ni�a events normally last for around a year, however they can be shorter, or much longer.


Seems the more fitting statement would be that "We really don't have a clue how long La Nina lasts, we just like to look good on paper".


Hey,PP. Long time no see. We've been having some nice weather this Winter down here, haven't we? How have you been?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
314. ProgressivePulse
5:27 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
La Nia events tend to begin in autumn, mature during winter, spring and early summer, then begin to decay in late summer. Events generally end in the autumn. The greatest impact normally occurs during the winter, spring and early summer period, and is shown here in darker blue.

La Nia events normally last for around a year, however they can be shorter, or much longer.


Seems the more fitting statement would be that "We really don't have a clue how long La Nina lasts, we just like to look good on paper".
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5405
313. Patrap
5:21 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
312. Grothar
4:46 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
Cloudsat caught Funso today..





Tom~ 98S looks like an awful flood coming.


Losts of moisture with this one Skye!

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
311. Skyepony (Mod)
4:43 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
wunderweatherman123~ This week's ENSO numbers came close to wronging the we've seen La Nina peak comments. 98S is going to drop the pressure at Darwin driving SOI up this week too. ESPI is still holding at -1.52 (or it's quit updating).. I agree this La Nina is in no hurry to end.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 37852
310. Xyrus2000
4:38 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Quoting AlwaysThinkin:


Also anti-capitalistic. Adam Smith, for instance, felt that if a company set up a trade route then it should be able to make a profit for awhile (to recoup their cost and to make some profit), but eventually be open to the public otherwise it is like enacting a tax on all for the benefit of a few wealthy merchants.


The whole point of copyright and patents was to facilitate creativity and innovation. Get authors and inventors creating, give them a limited temporary monopoly to profit, then put it all in the public domain so others could freely improve/expand upon it.

Now copyrights and patents are used as corporate sledgehammers to crush and stifle creativity and innovation. Corporations have entire departments dedicated to intellectual property. There are companies now that don't even produce anything. They just buy up patents and wait for someone to do something that infringes so they can submarine them for a few million.

Pretty sad.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1480
309. Grothar
4:37 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
308. Skyepony (Mod)
4:36 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Cloudsat caught Funso today..





Tom~ 98S looks like an awful flood coming.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 37852
307. wunderweatherman123
4:35 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
la nina is still strong its a -1.1C now thats moderate it wont fully dissipate till either april or may. it will be hard for an el nino to form until october i would say if that happens we could get away with an inactive year because if an el nino forms once the season is ending its effects arent felt till a month or more later therefore if this event does occur and el nino lasts but falls apart by next june we could miss out an inactive hurricane season but that is WAY too far to make any calls right now im thinking neutral throughout the peak of hurricane season (warm neutral) 14 TS 8H and 4MH
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1724
306. Grothar
4:32 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
305. TomTaylor
4:18 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Silly guy

You can't forecast 2013 23 days into 2012

Silly guy
well you can certainly try

You'd be better off flipping a coin though lol
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
304. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:17 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
SUPER NINO! lol


Don't expect this at least until december 2012, or 2013, but 2013 will likely be a lot less active then the season previous... At last a break you can say, though we don't know what 2012 will throw at us or if it will.

Forecasts: <- that's right FORECASTS
2012:
16 NS
7 HUR
5 Intense HUR

2013: <- what they hey, RIGHT?
9 to 13 Named storms
2 to 6 Hurricanes
No to 2 Major hurricanes

Details on 2012:
The La nina is finished, and we will slowly glide down back into neutral like June 2011, though it will arrive this year about a month earlier.(May 2012, will likely be when the neutral is in full swing) Though unlike 2011, the La nina returns in december, 2012 will differ, and likely give up the La Nina streak from 2010 to now, this will impact greatly to how the heart and end to the hurricane season will play out, if the neutral event collapses early(around the peak of the season) then the US could have some open spots for storms to take shots, before the full el nino pattern takes place. Once the El Nino pattern is in place, whether it be september or november, activity could drop or be about average...
Also this means that 2013 would likely end up being less active, unless there is an event reversal around the mid to end of the year...
Well thats my thoughts toward this.

Silly guy

You can't forecast 2013 23 days into 2012

Silly guy
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
303. yqt1001
4:12 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
First vis of Funso.

Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
302. TomTaylor
4:08 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:


Also known as 98S. Click pic for loop.

Yeah 98s. Aqua satellite picked up some -100c cloud tops...topping off the chart. Link
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
301. GeoffreyWPB
4:07 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11159
300. TomTaylor
4:05 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:
Goodnight all
later

ps, lol @tebow
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
299. SPLbeater
4:00 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Goodnight all
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
298. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:50 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
A strengthening monsoon trough is located near the north coast and at 9:30 am CST a Tropical Low [998 hPa] was located near 11.3S 131.5E, approximately 30 km west of Cape Don, moving west at 5 km/h. The low is expected to start moving southwards today and move inland over the Top End on Wednesday.

Heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding is likely during today over parts of the northern Darwin-Daly and Arnhem Districts, particularly near the north coast, including the Tiwi Islands and the Cobourg Peninsula. Heavy rain may extend further south into the Darwin-Daly district on Wednesday
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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