Flooding, heavy snow, ice storm, and fires hit the Western U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:39 PM GMT on January 20, 2012

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A state of emergency has been declared in Oregon and Washington, where a powerful winter storm brought deadly floods, heavy snows of up to 4 feet, a severe ice storm, and damaging winds Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains of 3 - 8 inches have fallen over a wide swath of Western Oregon since Monday, causing major to record flooding on multiple rivers and creeks. In Albany, Oregon, a family of four drove out of a supermarket parking lot and into a flooded Perwinkle Creek Wednesday night, and were swept away. Two people were rescued, but a 20-month-old boy and his mother drowned. The Marys River in Philomath rose to its highest flood on record yesterday, and will remain at major flood stage today before gradually receding tonight. The rains have tapered off over much of the region today, but renewed rains are expected later today and intermittently into early next week. The storm also brought strong winds to Reno, Nevada, fanning a brush fire that tore through the Reno area, destroying more than 20 homes and forcing thousands to evacuate. Reno experienced sustained winds of 44 mph, gusting to 70 mph, during the afternoon Thursday. The city didn't get any precipitation, and has received just 0.03" of precipitation this year. That fell on Monday, breaking a 56-day streak with no precipitation--the longest wintertime dry streak in city history. Strong winds gusting to 55 mph are expected during the day today, keeping the fire danger high, but heavy rain is expected tonight, which should ease the fire danger. The storm also brought a significant freezing rain event to northern Oregon and Western Washington yesterday, and up to an inch of ice accumulated in some areas, contributing to power outages that affected at least 275,000 people.


Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 7 pm EST Thursday, January 19, of the West Coast winter storm. A second storm, now approaching the coast, can be seen at the left of the image. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Some select snow amounts between 2 pm PST Monday January 16, and 1am PST Friday January 20, as compiled in the latest NOAA/NCEP/HPC Storm Summary:

...CALIFORNIA...
COVINGTON MILL 23.5
WEAVERVILLE 16.0
JUNCTION CITY 12.0

...IDAHO...
KETCHUM 22 NW 38.5
STANLEY 28 NE 32.9
BURLEY 30 SW 22.2

...MONTANA...
HERON 15.3
MISSOULA 15.0
COPPER CAMP 13.0
MANY GLACIER 13.0
HELENA 12.0

...OREGON...
MT. HOOD MEADOWS 50.0
TIMBERLANE 45.0
BEAR GRASS 32.0

...UTAH...
ALTA 16.0 9662 FT
SNOWBIRD 11.0 8100 FT
PARK CITY JUPITER PEAK 5.0

...WASHINGTON...
JUNE LAKE 31.0
SURPRISE LAKE 30.0
LONE PINE 25.0
OLYMPIA 25.0
TACOMA 11.1
SPOKANE 7.7
SEATTLE 7.1

...WYOMING...
OVANDO 24.0
JACKSON 16.2
AFTON 12.0
SOUTH ENTRANCE YELLOWSTONE 11.0

And some select rainfall amounts from the same time period:

...CALIFORNIA...
GASQUET 9.80
CRESCENT CITY/MC NAMARA FIELD 5.87
ARCATA AIRPORT 3.63
EUREKA 3.23

...OREGON...
SWISS HOME 15.50
PORT ORFORD 5 E 11.47
FALLS CITY 10.20
SILVERTON 9 SE 8.83
SALEM/MCNARY FIELD 6.82
PHILOMATH 5 SW 6.68
CAVE JUNCTION 2 N 6.25
N MYRTLE POINT 6.10
CORVALLIS MUNI ARPT 5.98
BROOKINGS 5 NNW 5.50
PORTLAND INTL ARPT 1.75


Figure 2. The Marys River in Philomath, Oregon crested at its highest flood height on record Thursday, and remains at major flood level today. Image credit: NOAA.

The short-term forecast
The storm door will remain open for California and the Pacific Northwest through the weekend and into mid-week, as two more moisture-laden storm systems pound the region. By the time the active weather pattern calms down by mid-week, rainfall totals of 10 - 20 inches are expected along the Oregon coast. Snowfall totals of 4 - 6 feet are likely in the Cascade Mountains of Washington and Oregon, in the Northern Sierra and Shasta/Siskiyou Mountains in California, in the Northern Wasatch and Uinta Ranges of Utah, and in the Northern Rockies from far eastern Idaho/Western Wyoming through Central and Northern Idaho, Northwestern Montana, and Northeastern Oregon. Damaging strong winds will affect the coast from Northern California to Northern Washington during the weekend and into early next week, as well.

Record dry spell ends for California and Nevada
In San Francisco, the first significant rains since November 20 fell yesterday, a modest 0.08". The two-month period November 20 - January 19 saw just 0.26" of rain fall in the city, making it the longest two-month winter dry period in the city since records began in 1850, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. More rain is expected Friday through Saturday.

The long-range forecast
A major atmospheric pattern shift is responsible for the big storm in the Western U.S. The ridge of high pressure that brought Northern California its driest two-month winter period on record Nov 20 - Jan 19 has retreated to the northwest towards Alaska, allowing the subtropical jet stream to dive underneath the ridge and bring a plume of moisture called an "atmospheric river" to the coast. This shift was possible thanks to a weakening of a pressure pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). During December and the first half of January, the AO took on its second most extreme configuration on record. The pressure difference between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low reached its most extreme value since records began in 1865, keeping the winds of the jets stream flowing very rapidly. This pattern bottled the jet stream far to the north in Canada, and prevented cold Arctic air from spilling southwards into the U.S . The combination of a near record-strength AO and a borderline weak/moderate La Ninña event in the Eastern Pacific combined to keep a powerful ridge in place over the Western U.S., deflecting all the winter storms into Canada and Southern Alaska. The AO index has become much less extreme over the past two weeks, though, and is now close to average strength. This has allowed the polar jet stream to sag southwards from Canada into the northern U.S., giving the northern tier of states their first real sustained winter-like weather of the season this week (it's about time!) However, the polar jet is expected to remain far enough north so that no major snow storms will occur in the U.S. during the remainder of January--except perhaps in the Pacific Northwest. It's likely that the lack of storms will make January 2012 one of the top five driest January months on record. This month is also likely to be a top-ten warmest January, but won't be able to challenge January of 2006 for the top spot. That January was an incredible 8.5°F above average in the contiguous U.S., and so far, we are running about 4 - 5°F above average. The AO index is predicted to remain near average or potentially change signs and go negative by the beginning of February, which would allow cold air to spill southwards into the U.S. bringing more typical winter-like weather.

It's too early to say what type of winter weather February might bring, but it might be instructive to look at the last time we had winter like this year's. Like the winter of 2011 - 2012, the winter of 2006 - 2007 started out exceptionally warm, with the AO index reaching its all-time most extreme positive value on record during December and early January. New York City hit 72°F on January 6, 2007, the city's all-time warmest January day. The rest of January 2007 saw a gradual lessening of the extreme AO pattern, much like we are seeing this year, and the AO returned to normal in February 2007. That month was a classic winter month, ranking as the 34th coldest February on record, with several notable snow storms.

Auroras possible this weekend
From spaceweather.com: Active sunspot 1401 erupted Jan. 19th, for more than an hour around 16:00 UT. The long-duration blast produced an M3-class solar flare and a Coronal Mass Ejection that appears to be heading toward Earth. Forecasters say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives during the late hours of Saturday, Jan. 21st. High-latitude (and possibly middle-latitude) sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post titled, The Pacific Northwest’s Greatest Storm: The ‘Storm King’ of January 1880.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Not Good... (catilac)
...with high winds and extreme dry conditions. Fire crews from Reno and Carson City are battling a brush fire burning from 300 to 400 acres is threatening homes in the Washoe City area, centered at 485 Washoe Drive. Door-to-door evacuations are underway. The Reno-Sparks Livestock Events Center is acting as an evacuation center for horses, as a result of the Washoe Drive Fire.
Not Good...
Christmas Tree Down (RenoSoHill)
I guess we were too slow so Mother Nature took it down for us. Winds approaching 100 mph - brushed our house - no damage - missed the truck by 3 feet. $20 porch light destroyed!
Christmas Tree Down
Mother Ship (RenoSoHill)
Another great cloud watching day as the storm approaches
Mother Ship
Snow in Federal Way (hniyer)
Snow clings heavily on trees in the town of Federal Way after the first snow storm of the winter dumped 6 inches of snow and turned the world white.
Snow in Federal Way
Bit of snow! (NicholasLee)
Measured exactly 1 foot of snow right before I shot this picture but its still snowing steadily so that now there's 16 inches of snow, with no signs of stopping! I love it!
Bit of snow!

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NEXRAD Radar
Vertically Integrated Liquid ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129917
Storms look elongated firing up first, we'll see what happens. PDS and a TOR:CON of 8/10 in Jan. is certainly not a good sign for this upcoming tornado season. Probably thanks to the warm winter the SE USA has seen, and with well above average SST's that haven't cooled off to normal levels since November. Bad combination. It was those SST levels in the GOMEX being so above average that helped contribute to what we saw last tornado season.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
So far these cells are just forming lines. Should not get anything to strong if this keeps up. How far ahead of the lines should the tornadic cells form?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3853
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Question: What does VILD mean on storm data?


Try here..

VIL is short for vertically integrated liquid, essentially the amount of liquid (not ice) in the column (based on reflectivity). But, one can roughly correlate a VIL of the day with severe hail. In other words, once you get a severe hail report, you can cross reference that with the current VIL and use that as a rough predictor of additional severe hail reports. For example, a 3/4 hail report had a VIL of 65. It would be safe to assume that a similar storm with another VIL of 65 may also be producing severe hail that day. In fact, back in the 90s, it was one of the top predictors used, and "VIL of the day" programs were used to get the current day's value based on freezing level and local climatology, etc. Digital VIL is also useful for finding the core of the storm when looking for storm verification, etc. Often, after a storm moves though an area and we haven't received storm verification, we can use the DVIL to pinpoint a very small area (often a couple square miles) to call citizens to inquire of hail size.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129917
Question: What does VILD mean on storm data?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3853


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129917



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0046
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...SWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 222337Z - 230130Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SERN MO AND NERN AR
DURING THE 00-03Z TIME PERIOD...AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS SRN IL...WRN KY AND SWRN IND DURING THE NIGHT. PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES A 993 MB LOW
POSITIONED OVER ERN KS...WITH A DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRAILING
SWD INTO ERN OK AND NERN TX...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E-NEWD INTO
SRN/CNTRL AR AND NRN MS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S EXIST S OF THE WARM FRONT...WHILE TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S AND 60S EXIST OVER THE MID-SOUTH ACCOMPANIED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPR 40S TO MID 50S. IN ADDITION...A SECONDARY BAROCLINIC ZONE/PSEUDO
WARM FRONT EXTENDS NEWD OUT OF CNTRL AR TOWARD THE SRN IL/WRN KY
BORDER. AS A POTENT UPR LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TOWARD THE MS
VALLEY TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW OVER KS IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD
ACROSS NRN MO INTO ERN IA/NRN IL. AS THIS OCCURS...MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRIMARY WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT NWD INTO WRN
KY...ALLOWING UPR 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. MODEST SURFACE BASED CAPE MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE...RANGING
FROM 500-1000 J/KG.

MEANWHILE...THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS SRN MO
AND NRN AR DURING THE 00-06Z TIME PERIOD. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPR TROUGH...AS WELL AS
MORE SUBTLE ASCENT ALONG BOTH THE PRIMARY AND PSEUDO WARM FRONTS
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
DURING BY 00-03Z TIME PERIOD OVER NERN AR/SERN MO AND POSSIBLY WRN
KY/SRN IL. STRONG VEERING DEEP LAYER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY 70+ KT SWLY MIDLEVEL JET JUXTAPOSED ABOVE A
50+ KT S-SWLY LLJ WILL FAVOR FAST NELY STORM MOTIONS FROM 40-60 KT.
THE STRONG FLOW COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD
SUPPORT STORM CLUSTERS AND LINES POSING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. IN
ADDITION...VERY LARGE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH CURVATURE /WITH 0-1 KM SRH
AOA 400 M2 S-2/ WILL PROMOTE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND A THREAT FOR A
FEW TORNADOES. PRIMARY CONCERN REGARDING THE TORNADO THREAT IS
MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER THERMODYNAMICS /I.E. SLIGHTLY COOL NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/. HOWEVER...IF OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST
SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY...THEN WATCH TYPE WILL BE
TORNADO.

..GARNER.. 01/22/2012


ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...L SX...SGF...

LAT...LON 37679149 38778919 38758735 38158662 37208665 36608769
36439050 36659209 37679149
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129917
A Large January Midwest Tornado threat.

How Novel is dat, eh?

Hmmm, Hmmm?

How bout a Fresca?



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129917
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 333 Day's until the Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your evening.
When you post that, I see this..!!!!! And this....!!!!!!!
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22728
PDS in January? Where is Nea when you need him?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Breaking: Dr. Greg Forbes has upped his Tor:Con to an 8/10


Dang. That's the highest I've seen it since last spring. This is a serious situation developing tonight.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
For general info see www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/dean/pdswatch.pdf

"When the threat for damage caused by severe convection is unusually high, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) enhances the wording of its convective watch product with the following statement:

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

"Such watches are known as PDS watches. PDS tornado (TOR) watches are issued when the forecaster has high confidence that multiple strong (F2-F3 on the Fujita Scale) or violent tornadoes (F4-F5 on the Fujita Scale) will occur in the watch area, while PDS severe thunderstorm (SEV) watches are issued when there is a threat of a high end derecho (e.g. Johns and Hirt 1987, Coniglio et al. 2004) with widespread wind damage."

Edit: can't get that link to work correctly so I had to spell it out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Breaking: Dr. Greg Forbes has upped his Tor:Con to an 8/10
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Is that the first one in Jan ever?

Not that I believe...There was a High risk in January of 1999 (the only ever) so I imagine that there was one then.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
PDS TORNADO WATCH
Is that the first one in Jan ever?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3853
THE SPC HAS ISSUED A PDS TORNADO WATCH

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
North Little Rock Radar
NEXRAD Radar
Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129917
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5086
Lol right on time we starting to see cells fire.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3853
Thunderstorms starting to pop...I wonder where the weasle will show its head. Stay safe out there!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
The line has begun..

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
There are now 333 Day's until the Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your evening.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129917
Quoting SPLbeater:


Maybe he decided to stop eating twinkies and barbecue chips(land, dry air) and take in some bananas so he dont cramp(sustain convection), and he is getting alot of chicken and ribs n stuff(moisture, warm water). and he gets alot of vitamin D so his bones(structure) form well


He ate his mushrooms and avoided the squids.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
gtg be back later :D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting washingtonian115:
I did I said it sounds like it could be a clown's name.But it looks like people will be a no show when Funso comes to town.lol.He's gonna get hit with cream pies when he comes.


LOL. i was thinkin like..

I like to have funso i can keep me mind off things LOL
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting SPLbeater:
Hey washingtonian im surprised you havnt made a joke out of Funso's name yet xD
I did I said it sounds like it could be a clown's name.But it looks like people will be a no show when Funso comes to town.lol.He's gonna get hit with cream pies when he comes.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17864
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
From the NWS in Memphis:

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH. A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL UNFOLD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...REACHING THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. THE GREATEST TORNADO RISK AREA INCLUDES THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA... AND THE EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI DELTA.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5086
Watching this area closely for thunderstorm explosion in approximately an hour.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
Hey washingtonian im surprised you havnt made a joke out of Funso's name yet xD
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting washingtonian115:
Why isn't Funso killing himself?????.He's suppose to be killing himself!!!!!!!!!!!.


Maybe he decided to stop eating twinkies and barbecue chips(land, dry air) and take in some bananas so he dont cramp(sustain convection), and he is getting alot of chicken and ribs n stuff(moisture, warm water). and he gets alot of vitamin D so his bones(structure) form well
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Im glad you are still being a kid, too many people try and grow up too fast.


yep!! not only proud to be an American, IM PROUD TO BE A KID!!!!!! WOOOHOO!!! LOL
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
...Someone is going to get creamed..Tonnes of gulf moisture is surging into this system, shear is almost ridiculous and the jet is at least 90 kts..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22728
Why isn't Funso killing himself?????.He's suppose to be killing himself!!!!!!!!!!!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17864
Quoting SPLbeater:
It is so fun to pop out from behind a corner in the house to shoot my parents with a Longshot CS-6 nerf gun lol.


Im glad you are still being a kid, too many people try and grow up too fast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It is so fun to pop out from behind a corner in the house to shoot my parents with a Longshot CS-6 nerf gun lol.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...NRN LA...SRN/ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 222026Z - 222230Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE BY EARLY EVENING NEAR THE
ARKLATEX THEN RACE NEWD TOWARD WRN TN/NWRN MS AFTER DARK. DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. A TORNADO WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 00Z.

LEADING EDGE OF WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH IS ADVANCING ACROSS ERN
OK/NERN TX AND WILL SOON OVERSPREAD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE...WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SPREAD INTO SRN/ERN
AR...AS NOTED BY SFC DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE UPPER 50S INTO
THE 60S...WHILE A STUBBORN WEDGE OF COOLER AIR HAS YET TO BE
DISPLACED OVER MUCH OF CNTRL/NWRN AR. CURRENT THINKING IS GREATEST
AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO THE S-E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEDGE FRONT AND THIS WILL BE THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

LATEST VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASING BAND OF LOW LEVEL CU ALONG
THE DRY LINE NEAR I-35 OVER NCNTRL TX. THIS IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND IS CERTAINLY INDICATIVE OF STRONGER
FORCING THAT WILL SOON OVERSPREAD THE ARKLATEX. WITH TIME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE ALONG THIS LINE...OR PERHAPS EVEN DEVELOP
WELL AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT WITHIN DEEPER CONFLUENT ZONE NEAR THE
LA BORDER AS EXHIBITED BY SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN FROM NEAR TYR
TO JUST WEST OF SHV. NEEDLESS TO SAY VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

..DARROW.. 01/22/2012


ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 33369442 34409266 36039130 35608952 33729030 32089160
31789398 33369442
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129917
I'll be looking later this evening on weather conditions concerning severe weather.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There are times when disasters are declared for 2 reasons.

1. All your resources are being used, and their is a greater need from other sources.

2. This is the main reason Governors declare a disaster!

75% reimbursment from FEMA, so the State or Local resource only has to pay the 25%.

This includes snow removal and infrastructure repairs.
The press reports this, and it's like Katrina all over again!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Memphis area should be in for quite a ride tonight.

Stay on guard as they say..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
Funso is definitely strengthening again.

Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
Drugs are cheaper.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Personally, I think moderate survivalism is a good idea, as long as you don't start spending $100,000 on underground bunkers. Preparing for extreme weather, having alternatives and preparing a kit ready for emergencies is always a good idea.


I think people spend 100k on bunkers not to keep themselves alive but to make themselves feel safe in disaster events.

I'm in NE Louisiana right now at college and my dorm's safe area is a stairwell with 3 exterior wooden walls. I have a phobia of tornadoes. Needless to say I am not the most calm person right now. Its not that I'm afraid to die (although I don't want to) I'm afraid of being scared. If I had a 100k bunker right now I wouldn't be stressing because I would feel safe in it.

Just my two cents.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Bonnie, could have, and was forecast, to be a lot was than it was. A lot of people called for it to attain hurricane status in the Gulf of Mexico, even experts.



and wat did it do? *puff puff puff....psssssssss..* LOL
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Heads up:

The West Atlantic region near Bermuda, the western Gulf of Mexico and the northeastern Caribbean are all much warmer this year than last year. I also see a possible transition to weak El Nino by mid-2012, based on extreme anomalous SST conditions in the Humboldt Current zone.

1 January:


21 January:


SST anomalies (pay attention to the coast of Chile):


RE 437:
Personally, I think moderate survivalism is a good idea, as long as you don't start spending $100,000 on underground bunkers. Preparing for extreme weather, having alternatives and preparing a kit ready for emergencies is always a good idea.


the first 2 links/images didnt work u might want to fix lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting SPLbeater:


They had Jim Cantore in florida 2010 with TS Bonnie...40mph windspeeds, give me a break..and that was all they talked about, a blob of convection with a LLC moving over florida all day..

Bonnie, could have, and was forecast, to be a lot was than it was. A lot of people called for it to attain hurricane status in the Gulf of Mexico, even experts.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
Heads up:

The West Atlantic region near Bermuda, the western Gulf of Mexico and the northeastern Caribbean are all much warmer this year than last year. I also see a possible transition to weak El Nino by mid-2012, based on extreme anomalous SST conditions in the Humboldt Current zone.

1 January:


21 January:


SST anomalies (pay attention to the coast of Chile):


RE 437:
Personally, I think moderate survivalism is a good idea, as long as you don't start spending $100,000 on underground bunkers. Preparing for extreme weather, having alternatives and preparing a kit ready for emergencies is always a good idea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
454. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
22:00 PM RET January 22 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (960 hPa) located at 17.8S 38.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 3 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/S0.0/18 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
20 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center extending up to 40 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 18.5S 39.6E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 19.7S 39.6E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 22.3S 38.2E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 23.4S 37.9E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

Funso continues to go slowly eastward away from the coast. Dvorak analysis is difficult due to very small size of the system. Deep convection close to the center has clearly enhanced with very cold cloud tops. 85 GHZ SSMIS microwave at 1509 PM UTC shows a banding eye.

Within the next 12 hours, Funso is expected to remain under the steering influence of the near-equatorial ridge of mid-troposphere and should track slowly east southeastward then southeastward. Beyond, a ridge should rebuild in the east of the system and the track might recurve southward and then southwestward. At the end of forecast period (day 4 and day 5), a mid-tropospheric ridge rebuilt west of the system. Both contradictory steering flows might provide deceleration on southward track.

Upper level analysis indicates that system is located beneath a ridge axis. Upper level divergence is good equatorward. Upper level conditions are expected to remain good throughout the forecast period. They are expected to improve from j+2 with the building of a second outflow channel poleward.

Funso encounters again high energetic potential sea surface temperature (29C) as it is going away from the coast and it should regularly intensify. At the end of the forecast period, system should weaken again as it will track over less warm waters and strengthening of a north-northeasterly upper level constraint.

Inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa island and the south-western coasts of Madagascar) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
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453. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICAL, FORMER ETHEL (07-20112012)
22:00 PM RET January 22 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Extratropical Depression, Former Ethel (986 hPa) located at 29.4S 65.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale Force Winds
=================
100 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 NM in the southern semi-circle and up to 150 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
180 NM radius from the center extending up to 250 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 32.3S 69.4E - 50 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)
24 HRS: 36.0S 76.4E - 45 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================

System is taking an extra-tropical pattern.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement to forecast a south southeastward then southeastward track within the next 24 hours. System will merge with the westerly circulation of mid-latitudes. Strong winds should persist during this extra-tropicalization, with high speed of the track.

This will be the last tropical cyclone advisory issued on this system..
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Exaggeration with tropical systems? lolno.


They had Jim Cantore in florida 2010 with TS Bonnie...40mph windspeeds, give me a break..and that was all they talked about, a blob of convection with a LLC moving over florida all day..
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488

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