Flooding, heavy snow, ice storm, and fires hit the Western U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:39 PM GMT on January 20, 2012

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A state of emergency has been declared in Oregon and Washington, where a powerful winter storm brought deadly floods, heavy snows of up to 4 feet, a severe ice storm, and damaging winds Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains of 3 - 8 inches have fallen over a wide swath of Western Oregon since Monday, causing major to record flooding on multiple rivers and creeks. In Albany, Oregon, a family of four drove out of a supermarket parking lot and into a flooded Perwinkle Creek Wednesday night, and were swept away. Two people were rescued, but a 20-month-old boy and his mother drowned. The Marys River in Philomath rose to its highest flood on record yesterday, and will remain at major flood stage today before gradually receding tonight. The rains have tapered off over much of the region today, but renewed rains are expected later today and intermittently into early next week. The storm also brought strong winds to Reno, Nevada, fanning a brush fire that tore through the Reno area, destroying more than 20 homes and forcing thousands to evacuate. Reno experienced sustained winds of 44 mph, gusting to 70 mph, during the afternoon Thursday. The city didn't get any precipitation, and has received just 0.03" of precipitation this year. That fell on Monday, breaking a 56-day streak with no precipitation--the longest wintertime dry streak in city history. Strong winds gusting to 55 mph are expected during the day today, keeping the fire danger high, but heavy rain is expected tonight, which should ease the fire danger. The storm also brought a significant freezing rain event to northern Oregon and Western Washington yesterday, and up to an inch of ice accumulated in some areas, contributing to power outages that affected at least 275,000 people.


Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 7 pm EST Thursday, January 19, of the West Coast winter storm. A second storm, now approaching the coast, can be seen at the left of the image. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Some select snow amounts between 2 pm PST Monday January 16, and 1am PST Friday January 20, as compiled in the latest NOAA/NCEP/HPC Storm Summary:

...CALIFORNIA...
COVINGTON MILL 23.5
WEAVERVILLE 16.0
JUNCTION CITY 12.0

...IDAHO...
KETCHUM 22 NW 38.5
STANLEY 28 NE 32.9
BURLEY 30 SW 22.2

...MONTANA...
HERON 15.3
MISSOULA 15.0
COPPER CAMP 13.0
MANY GLACIER 13.0
HELENA 12.0

...OREGON...
MT. HOOD MEADOWS 50.0
TIMBERLANE 45.0
BEAR GRASS 32.0

...UTAH...
ALTA 16.0 9662 FT
SNOWBIRD 11.0 8100 FT
PARK CITY JUPITER PEAK 5.0

...WASHINGTON...
JUNE LAKE 31.0
SURPRISE LAKE 30.0
LONE PINE 25.0
OLYMPIA 25.0
TACOMA 11.1
SPOKANE 7.7
SEATTLE 7.1

...WYOMING...
OVANDO 24.0
JACKSON 16.2
AFTON 12.0
SOUTH ENTRANCE YELLOWSTONE 11.0

And some select rainfall amounts from the same time period:

...CALIFORNIA...
GASQUET 9.80
CRESCENT CITY/MC NAMARA FIELD 5.87
ARCATA AIRPORT 3.63
EUREKA 3.23

...OREGON...
SWISS HOME 15.50
PORT ORFORD 5 E 11.47
FALLS CITY 10.20
SILVERTON 9 SE 8.83
SALEM/MCNARY FIELD 6.82
PHILOMATH 5 SW 6.68
CAVE JUNCTION 2 N 6.25
N MYRTLE POINT 6.10
CORVALLIS MUNI ARPT 5.98
BROOKINGS 5 NNW 5.50
PORTLAND INTL ARPT 1.75


Figure 2. The Marys River in Philomath, Oregon crested at its highest flood height on record Thursday, and remains at major flood level today. Image credit: NOAA.

The short-term forecast
The storm door will remain open for California and the Pacific Northwest through the weekend and into mid-week, as two more moisture-laden storm systems pound the region. By the time the active weather pattern calms down by mid-week, rainfall totals of 10 - 20 inches are expected along the Oregon coast. Snowfall totals of 4 - 6 feet are likely in the Cascade Mountains of Washington and Oregon, in the Northern Sierra and Shasta/Siskiyou Mountains in California, in the Northern Wasatch and Uinta Ranges of Utah, and in the Northern Rockies from far eastern Idaho/Western Wyoming through Central and Northern Idaho, Northwestern Montana, and Northeastern Oregon. Damaging strong winds will affect the coast from Northern California to Northern Washington during the weekend and into early next week, as well.

Record dry spell ends for California and Nevada
In San Francisco, the first significant rains since November 20 fell yesterday, a modest 0.08". The two-month period November 20 - January 19 saw just 0.26" of rain fall in the city, making it the longest two-month winter dry period in the city since records began in 1850, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. More rain is expected Friday through Saturday.

The long-range forecast
A major atmospheric pattern shift is responsible for the big storm in the Western U.S. The ridge of high pressure that brought Northern California its driest two-month winter period on record Nov 20 - Jan 19 has retreated to the northwest towards Alaska, allowing the subtropical jet stream to dive underneath the ridge and bring a plume of moisture called an "atmospheric river" to the coast. This shift was possible thanks to a weakening of a pressure pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). During December and the first half of January, the AO took on its second most extreme configuration on record. The pressure difference between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low reached its most extreme value since records began in 1865, keeping the winds of the jets stream flowing very rapidly. This pattern bottled the jet stream far to the north in Canada, and prevented cold Arctic air from spilling southwards into the U.S . The combination of a near record-strength AO and a borderline weak/moderate La Ninña event in the Eastern Pacific combined to keep a powerful ridge in place over the Western U.S., deflecting all the winter storms into Canada and Southern Alaska. The AO index has become much less extreme over the past two weeks, though, and is now close to average strength. This has allowed the polar jet stream to sag southwards from Canada into the northern U.S., giving the northern tier of states their first real sustained winter-like weather of the season this week (it's about time!) However, the polar jet is expected to remain far enough north so that no major snow storms will occur in the U.S. during the remainder of January--except perhaps in the Pacific Northwest. It's likely that the lack of storms will make January 2012 one of the top five driest January months on record. This month is also likely to be a top-ten warmest January, but won't be able to challenge January of 2006 for the top spot. That January was an incredible 8.5°F above average in the contiguous U.S., and so far, we are running about 4 - 5°F above average. The AO index is predicted to remain near average or potentially change signs and go negative by the beginning of February, which would allow cold air to spill southwards into the U.S. bringing more typical winter-like weather.

It's too early to say what type of winter weather February might bring, but it might be instructive to look at the last time we had winter like this year's. Like the winter of 2011 - 2012, the winter of 2006 - 2007 started out exceptionally warm, with the AO index reaching its all-time most extreme positive value on record during December and early January. New York City hit 72°F on January 6, 2007, the city's all-time warmest January day. The rest of January 2007 saw a gradual lessening of the extreme AO pattern, much like we are seeing this year, and the AO returned to normal in February 2007. That month was a classic winter month, ranking as the 34th coldest February on record, with several notable snow storms.

Auroras possible this weekend
From spaceweather.com: Active sunspot 1401 erupted Jan. 19th, for more than an hour around 16:00 UT. The long-duration blast produced an M3-class solar flare and a Coronal Mass Ejection that appears to be heading toward Earth. Forecasters say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives during the late hours of Saturday, Jan. 21st. High-latitude (and possibly middle-latitude) sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post titled, The Pacific Northwest’s Greatest Storm: The ‘Storm King’ of January 1880.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Not Good... (catilac)
...with high winds and extreme dry conditions. Fire crews from Reno and Carson City are battling a brush fire burning from 300 to 400 acres is threatening homes in the Washoe City area, centered at 485 Washoe Drive. Door-to-door evacuations are underway. The Reno-Sparks Livestock Events Center is acting as an evacuation center for horses, as a result of the Washoe Drive Fire.
Not Good...
Christmas Tree Down (RenoSoHill)
I guess we were too slow so Mother Nature took it down for us. Winds approaching 100 mph - brushed our house - no damage - missed the truck by 3 feet. $20 porch light destroyed!
Christmas Tree Down
Mother Ship (RenoSoHill)
Another great cloud watching day as the storm approaches
Mother Ship
Snow in Federal Way (hniyer)
Snow clings heavily on trees in the town of Federal Way after the first snow storm of the winter dumped 6 inches of snow and turned the world white.
Snow in Federal Way
Bit of snow! (NicholasLee)
Measured exactly 1 foot of snow right before I shot this picture but its still snowing steadily so that now there's 16 inches of snow, with no signs of stopping! I love it!
Bit of snow!

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New Tornado warning. Velocity shows some decent rotation.

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
So which velocity radar is the best at locating TVS? Base Radical or Storm Relative Mean?
Storm relative if your looking for tornadoes (rotation), Base if you are looking at gust fronts and such
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
636 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HOT SPRING COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
GRANT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...


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Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
First Tornado Warning
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
636 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HOT SPRING COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
GRANT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CST

* AT 632 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEOLA...OR 18 MILES EAST OF
ARKADELPHIA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
SHERIDAN... THIEL... PRATTSVILLE...
ORION... LEOLA... DOGWOOD...
CANE CREEK... WILLOW... TULIP...
SULPHUR SPRINGS... PRAGUE... LONO...
HARDIN... GRAPEVINE... BUNN...
STEPHENS LAKE... SLABTOWN... SHERIDAN MUNI ARPT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 530 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 21 AND 30.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
-----------------------------------------------

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
635 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN OUACHITA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CST

* AT 632 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF WHITE OAK LAKE...OR 13 MILES
WEST OF CAMDEN. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
LUNET... LESTER... HARLOW...
BEARDEN... WARNER... TROY...
PINE GROVE... MILLVILLE... HOLLY SPRINGS...
HARMONY GROVE... EAST CAMDEN... EAGLE MILLS...
CHIDESTER... AMY... VELIE...
VANDUZER... SPRING HILL... SMEAD...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
and...here we go! 2 tornado warnings.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting Ameister12:
Severe Thunderstorm east of Mount Vernon is looking very impressive.

This one is showing signs of rotation.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting Ameister12:
Severe Thunderstorm east of Mount Vernon is looking very impressive.
For a couple frames had a TVS. Now its just MESO but its still spinning.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Severe Thunderstorm east of Mount Vernon is looking very impressive.

(Remember to click image to enlarge)
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
So which velocity radar is the best at locating TVS? Base Radical or Storm Relative Mean?

Base Velocity (BV).

These storms are literally exploding...new warning.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
So which velocity radar is the best at locating TVS? Base Radical or Storm Relative Mean?
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New Severe Thunderstorm Warning:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting Bluestorm5:
not to be rude, but... that radar is from NWS Little Rock site. Just saying :)


oh..sorry..I meant it is of the same area, not the same application (that ap is fantastic, tho)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2350


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0046
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...SWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 222337Z - 230130Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SERN MO AND NERN AR
DURING THE 00-03Z TIME PERIOD...AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS SRN IL...WRN KY AND SWRN IND DURING THE NIGHT. PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES A 993 MB LOW
POSITIONED OVER ERN KS...WITH A DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRAILING
SWD INTO ERN OK AND NERN TX...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E-NEWD INTO
SRN/CNTRL AR AND NRN MS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S EXIST S OF THE WARM FRONT...WHILE TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S AND 60S EXIST OVER THE MID-SOUTH ACCOMPANIED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPR 40S TO MID 50S. IN ADDITION...A SECONDARY BAROCLINIC ZONE/PSEUDO
WARM FRONT EXTENDS NEWD OUT OF CNTRL AR TOWARD THE SRN IL/WRN KY
BORDER. AS A POTENT UPR LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TOWARD THE MS
VALLEY TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW OVER KS IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD
ACROSS NRN MO INTO ERN IA/NRN IL. AS THIS OCCURS...MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRIMARY WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT NWD INTO WRN
KY...ALLOWING UPR 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. MODEST SURFACE BASED CAPE MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE...RANGING
FROM 500-1000 J/KG.

MEANWHILE...THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS SRN MO
AND NRN AR DURING THE 00-06Z TIME PERIOD. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPR TROUGH...AS WELL AS
MORE SUBTLE ASCENT ALONG BOTH THE PRIMARY AND PSEUDO WARM FRONTS
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
DURING BY 00-03Z TIME PERIOD OVER NERN AR/SERN MO AND POSSIBLY WRN
KY/SRN IL. STRONG VEERING DEEP LAYER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY 70+ KT SWLY MIDLEVEL JET JUXTAPOSED ABOVE A
50+ KT S-SWLY LLJ WILL FAVOR FAST NELY STORM MOTIONS FROM 40-60 KT.
THE STRONG FLOW COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD
SUPPORT STORM CLUSTERS AND LINES POSING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. IN
ADDITION...VERY LARGE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH CURVATURE /WITH 0-1 KM SRH
AOA 400 M2 S-2/ WILL PROMOTE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND A THREAT FOR A
FEW TORNADOES. PRIMARY CONCERN REGARDING THE TORNADO THREAT IS
MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER THERMODYNAMICS /I.E. SLIGHTLY COOL NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/. HOWEVER...IF OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST
SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY...THEN WATCH TYPE WILL BE
TORNADO.

..GARNER.. 01/22/2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
North Little Rock Radar
NEXRAD Radar
Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128651
Quoting muddertracker:


doesn't everything? Thanks. I also found this link to it via internet:

Link

not as good, but it's free :)
not to be rude, but... that radar is from NWS Little Rock site. Just saying :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Update to show TVS:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Geez TVS showing on cells North of little rock.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
That cell near Arkadelphia is starting to look rather scary. Also getting a decent meso on it. Possible hook forming.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Quoting Ameister12:

RadarScope
It is a good radar, but it works only for MAC, IPhones, and Androids and it does cost money.


doesn't everything? Thanks. I also found this link to it via internet:

Link

not as good, but it's free :)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2350
Possible extension to WW 5.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
No what I'm saying is that the software that decides the TVS is being confused by all the clutter. My GRlevel3 never showed a TVS.

Well, I'm using GR2Analyst, not GRlevel3. And yes, it does matter which type of GRlevelX that is used. :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting Patrap:
Make sure one has a safe place to go in the event a Severe Weather/Tornado Warning is issued, or one hear's it coming. Plan now to act later if needed.


Also make sure your Alert NOAA Radio is battery backed up too.



After close call with EF3 twice on April 16, 2011 in North Carolina, I was nervous about tornado striking at night when I am sleeping so I got NOAA Radio this winter. It warned me about Tornado Watch just a week ago, so it's a great radio to use.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
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Quoting muddertracker:


What a fantastic radar...would you consider sharing the link?

RadarScope
It is a good radar, but it works only for MAC, IPhones, and Androids and it does cost money.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:
2 severe thunderstorm warnings. These storms will start becoming tornadic soon.


What a fantastic radar...would you consider sharing the link?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2350
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, the radar doesn't do that. When I ordered data from the 1999 Moore tornado, it essentially passed right over the station, but the rotation wasn't being caused by its location to the station.
No what I'm saying is that the software that decides the TVS is being confused by all the clutter. My GRlevel3 never showed a TVS.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
2 severe thunderstorm warnings. These storms will start becoming tornadic soon.
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Storm over Gurdon has started to spin. I bet it will be the first T-warning of the night.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
What type of velocity radar is the best at locating tornado?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I think its being caused by the storm being so close to the radar site.

No, the radar doesn't do that. When I ordered data from the 1999 Moore tornado, it essentially passed right over the station, but the rotation wasn't being caused by its location to the station.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Another warning:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We have a Tornado Vortex Signature

I think its being caused by the storm being so close to the radar site.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
nice job covering the tornadic activity guys!
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Make sure one has a safe place to go in the event a Severe Weather/Tornado Warning is issued, or one hear's it coming. Plan now to act later if needed.


Also make sure your Alert NOAA Radio is battery backed up too.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128651
We have a Tornado Vortex Signature

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
GOES Composite - Central U.S. Imagery - Rainbow Loop


click image for Loop

click loop to ZOOM


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128651
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128651

764
WUUS54 KLZK 222355
SVRLZK
ARC019-039-053-059-230030-
/O.NEW.KLZK.SV.W.0001.120122T2355Z-120123T0030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
555 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CLARK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
WEST CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
EASTERN HOT SPRING COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CST

* AT 553 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF RICHWOODS...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ARKADELPHIA...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MALVERN... ARKADELPHIA... THIEL...
ROCKPORT... RICHWOODS... POYEN...
PERLA... CADDO VALLEY... MIDWAY...
LONO... JOAN... GUM SPRINGS...
GRIFFITHTOWN... GIFFORD... FRIENDSHIP...
DONALDSON... CENTRAL... WITHERSPOON...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 61 AND 104.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.



LAT...LON 3449 9278 3429 9254 3390 9312 3402 9328
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 223DEG 50KT 3403 9312
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128651
Been awhile since I've been on here... but I heard about moderate risk, PDS tornado watch, TOR:CON being 8, etc. Thought about going on here so here I am.
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Link

Great link for HD doppler radars from across the country!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2350
First warning for the storm north of Prescott. SVR t-storm.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842


Note the length and breadth of the formed line, it stretches all across the State of Arkansas, Ne to Sw.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128651
Don't forget the persistent cap over Texas. That helped send the fuel north and east.
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SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 5
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN ARKANSAS
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 520 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF GREENVILLE
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN AR AS THE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE
AND ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM W TO E...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN OK. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS NE AR/WRN TN...AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN BAND WITH BOTH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
AND EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS. VERTICAL SHEAR...MOISTURE...AND THE
MIXED STORM MODES WILL FAVOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...THOMPSON
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128651
Starting to see some rotation on a cell north of Prescott.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Storms look elongated firing up first, we'll see what happens. PDS and a TOR:CON of 8/10 in Jan. is certainly not a good sign for this upcoming tornado season. Probably thanks to the warm winter the SE USA has seen, and with well above average SST's that haven't cooled off to normal levels since November. Bad combination. It was those SST levels in the GOMEX being so above average that helped contribute to what we saw last tornado season.


Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3475
NEXRAD Radar
Vertically Integrated Liquid ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128651

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.