Flooding, heavy snow, ice storm, and fires hit the Western U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:39 PM GMT on January 20, 2012

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A state of emergency has been declared in Oregon and Washington, where a powerful winter storm brought deadly floods, heavy snows of up to 4 feet, a severe ice storm, and damaging winds Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains of 3 - 8 inches have fallen over a wide swath of Western Oregon since Monday, causing major to record flooding on multiple rivers and creeks. In Albany, Oregon, a family of four drove out of a supermarket parking lot and into a flooded Perwinkle Creek Wednesday night, and were swept away. Two people were rescued, but a 20-month-old boy and his mother drowned. The Marys River in Philomath rose to its highest flood on record yesterday, and will remain at major flood stage today before gradually receding tonight. The rains have tapered off over much of the region today, but renewed rains are expected later today and intermittently into early next week. The storm also brought strong winds to Reno, Nevada, fanning a brush fire that tore through the Reno area, destroying more than 20 homes and forcing thousands to evacuate. Reno experienced sustained winds of 44 mph, gusting to 70 mph, during the afternoon Thursday. The city didn't get any precipitation, and has received just 0.03" of precipitation this year. That fell on Monday, breaking a 56-day streak with no precipitation--the longest wintertime dry streak in city history. Strong winds gusting to 55 mph are expected during the day today, keeping the fire danger high, but heavy rain is expected tonight, which should ease the fire danger. The storm also brought a significant freezing rain event to northern Oregon and Western Washington yesterday, and up to an inch of ice accumulated in some areas, contributing to power outages that affected at least 275,000 people.


Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 7 pm EST Thursday, January 19, of the West Coast winter storm. A second storm, now approaching the coast, can be seen at the left of the image. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Some select snow amounts between 2 pm PST Monday January 16, and 1am PST Friday January 20, as compiled in the latest NOAA/NCEP/HPC Storm Summary:

...CALIFORNIA...
COVINGTON MILL 23.5
WEAVERVILLE 16.0
JUNCTION CITY 12.0

...IDAHO...
KETCHUM 22 NW 38.5
STANLEY 28 NE 32.9
BURLEY 30 SW 22.2

...MONTANA...
HERON 15.3
MISSOULA 15.0
COPPER CAMP 13.0
MANY GLACIER 13.0
HELENA 12.0

...OREGON...
MT. HOOD MEADOWS 50.0
TIMBERLANE 45.0
BEAR GRASS 32.0

...UTAH...
ALTA 16.0 9662 FT
SNOWBIRD 11.0 8100 FT
PARK CITY JUPITER PEAK 5.0

...WASHINGTON...
JUNE LAKE 31.0
SURPRISE LAKE 30.0
LONE PINE 25.0
OLYMPIA 25.0
TACOMA 11.1
SPOKANE 7.7
SEATTLE 7.1

...WYOMING...
OVANDO 24.0
JACKSON 16.2
AFTON 12.0
SOUTH ENTRANCE YELLOWSTONE 11.0

And some select rainfall amounts from the same time period:

...CALIFORNIA...
GASQUET 9.80
CRESCENT CITY/MC NAMARA FIELD 5.87
ARCATA AIRPORT 3.63
EUREKA 3.23

...OREGON...
SWISS HOME 15.50
PORT ORFORD 5 E 11.47
FALLS CITY 10.20
SILVERTON 9 SE 8.83
SALEM/MCNARY FIELD 6.82
PHILOMATH 5 SW 6.68
CAVE JUNCTION 2 N 6.25
N MYRTLE POINT 6.10
CORVALLIS MUNI ARPT 5.98
BROOKINGS 5 NNW 5.50
PORTLAND INTL ARPT 1.75


Figure 2. The Marys River in Philomath, Oregon crested at its highest flood height on record Thursday, and remains at major flood level today. Image credit: NOAA.

The short-term forecast
The storm door will remain open for California and the Pacific Northwest through the weekend and into mid-week, as two more moisture-laden storm systems pound the region. By the time the active weather pattern calms down by mid-week, rainfall totals of 10 - 20 inches are expected along the Oregon coast. Snowfall totals of 4 - 6 feet are likely in the Cascade Mountains of Washington and Oregon, in the Northern Sierra and Shasta/Siskiyou Mountains in California, in the Northern Wasatch and Uinta Ranges of Utah, and in the Northern Rockies from far eastern Idaho/Western Wyoming through Central and Northern Idaho, Northwestern Montana, and Northeastern Oregon. Damaging strong winds will affect the coast from Northern California to Northern Washington during the weekend and into early next week, as well.

Record dry spell ends for California and Nevada
In San Francisco, the first significant rains since November 20 fell yesterday, a modest 0.08". The two-month period November 20 - January 19 saw just 0.26" of rain fall in the city, making it the longest two-month winter dry period in the city since records began in 1850, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. More rain is expected Friday through Saturday.

The long-range forecast
A major atmospheric pattern shift is responsible for the big storm in the Western U.S. The ridge of high pressure that brought Northern California its driest two-month winter period on record Nov 20 - Jan 19 has retreated to the northwest towards Alaska, allowing the subtropical jet stream to dive underneath the ridge and bring a plume of moisture called an "atmospheric river" to the coast. This shift was possible thanks to a weakening of a pressure pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). During December and the first half of January, the AO took on its second most extreme configuration on record. The pressure difference between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low reached its most extreme value since records began in 1865, keeping the winds of the jets stream flowing very rapidly. This pattern bottled the jet stream far to the north in Canada, and prevented cold Arctic air from spilling southwards into the U.S . The combination of a near record-strength AO and a borderline weak/moderate La Ninña event in the Eastern Pacific combined to keep a powerful ridge in place over the Western U.S., deflecting all the winter storms into Canada and Southern Alaska. The AO index has become much less extreme over the past two weeks, though, and is now close to average strength. This has allowed the polar jet stream to sag southwards from Canada into the northern U.S., giving the northern tier of states their first real sustained winter-like weather of the season this week (it's about time!) However, the polar jet is expected to remain far enough north so that no major snow storms will occur in the U.S. during the remainder of January--except perhaps in the Pacific Northwest. It's likely that the lack of storms will make January 2012 one of the top five driest January months on record. This month is also likely to be a top-ten warmest January, but won't be able to challenge January of 2006 for the top spot. That January was an incredible 8.5°F above average in the contiguous U.S., and so far, we are running about 4 - 5°F above average. The AO index is predicted to remain near average or potentially change signs and go negative by the beginning of February, which would allow cold air to spill southwards into the U.S. bringing more typical winter-like weather.

It's too early to say what type of winter weather February might bring, but it might be instructive to look at the last time we had winter like this year's. Like the winter of 2011 - 2012, the winter of 2006 - 2007 started out exceptionally warm, with the AO index reaching its all-time most extreme positive value on record during December and early January. New York City hit 72°F on January 6, 2007, the city's all-time warmest January day. The rest of January 2007 saw a gradual lessening of the extreme AO pattern, much like we are seeing this year, and the AO returned to normal in February 2007. That month was a classic winter month, ranking as the 34th coldest February on record, with several notable snow storms.

Auroras possible this weekend
From spaceweather.com: Active sunspot 1401 erupted Jan. 19th, for more than an hour around 16:00 UT. The long-duration blast produced an M3-class solar flare and a Coronal Mass Ejection that appears to be heading toward Earth. Forecasters say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives during the late hours of Saturday, Jan. 21st. High-latitude (and possibly middle-latitude) sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post titled, The Pacific Northwest’s Greatest Storm: The ‘Storm King’ of January 1880.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Not Good... (catilac)
...with high winds and extreme dry conditions. Fire crews from Reno and Carson City are battling a brush fire burning from 300 to 400 acres is threatening homes in the Washoe City area, centered at 485 Washoe Drive. Door-to-door evacuations are underway. The Reno-Sparks Livestock Events Center is acting as an evacuation center for horses, as a result of the Washoe Drive Fire.
Not Good...
Christmas Tree Down (RenoSoHill)
I guess we were too slow so Mother Nature took it down for us. Winds approaching 100 mph - brushed our house - no damage - missed the truck by 3 feet. $20 porch light destroyed!
Christmas Tree Down
Mother Ship (RenoSoHill)
Another great cloud watching day as the storm approaches
Mother Ship
Snow in Federal Way (hniyer)
Snow clings heavily on trees in the town of Federal Way after the first snow storm of the winter dumped 6 inches of snow and turned the world white.
Snow in Federal Way
Bit of snow! (NicholasLee)
Measured exactly 1 foot of snow right before I shot this picture but its still snowing steadily so that now there's 16 inches of snow, with no signs of stopping! I love it!
Bit of snow!

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Holy smokes! The storm north of Pine Bluff is likely producing a very violent tornado.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5086
This is just awful.Tornado's at night are never good.I hope that people got the warning.
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Good news is tornado missed Pine Bluff. Bad news is major damage in towns of Fordyce and Rison. Worst news is people may be injured.
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Has a hook with VERY strong rotation near England.
This storm looks like it will produce a very large tornado.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3852
North half of Fordyce is damaged and a woman is trapped in house.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Damage reported in Rison.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5086
The Line continues to Morph with Multiple Vortices Indicated


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Strong signature has formed south Redfield.

Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5086
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If this is January, wonder what late-April will bring.

I'm scared.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860
More High Novelty events will continue as the Time Wave Zero Compresses.
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Tornado emergency in Rison, Arkansas - nothing on the Google News media, but radial velocity signature was at least 110 knots. The tornado's strength seemed to peak as it headed through.
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Good lord.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3852
If this is January, wonder what late-April will bring.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Three tornado signatures...

That one did not have a t warning for a while just got issued, it has the strongest cuplet.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3852

997
WFUS54 KLZK 230148
TORLZK
ARC001-069-085-117-119-230215-
/O.NEW.KLZK.TO.W.0007.120123T0148Z-120123T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
748 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL PRAIRIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
SOUTHERN LONOKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CST

* AT 745 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HENSLEY ISLAND...OR 14 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PINE BLUFF. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
REDFIELD... PINE BLUFF ARSENAL... PARKERS CORNER...
HUMNOKE... HENSLEY ISLAND... ENGLAND...
BRUMMITT... WRIGHT... TUCKER...
TOMBERLIN... SHERRILL... SEATON...
SAMPLES... PASTORIA... JEFFERSON...
GETHSEMANE... DEXTER... CULLER...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 530 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 19 AND 24.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ROUGHLY ONE THIRD OF ALL ARKANSAS TORNADOES OCCUR AT NIGHT. TORNADOES
ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR
THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.



LAT...LON 3452 9151 3429 9212 3440 9221 3446 9221
3473 9177
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 235DEG 50KT 3442 9207
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Yikes, already bringing out the tornado emergency wording. I'm hoping people will still pay attention to regular warnings.

At night, it becomes even more difficult to accurately estimate size/intensity of the tornado.
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NEXRAD Radar
Base Reflectivity 0.50 Elevation
Range 248 NMI

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Quoting weathergeek5:
..A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL LINCOLN...
SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM
CST...

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE WARNED AREA...

AT 736 PM CST...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO WITH REPORTS OF
DAMAGE IN FORDYCE. THIS POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GRAYS LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. IN ADDITION TO
THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL
UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
RISON... GRAYS LAKE... TOLEDO...
NEBO... KEDRON... FEENYVILLE...
YORKTOWN... TARRY... RANDALL...
PINEBERGEN... LADD... GRIFFITH SPRING...
GLENLAKE... GLENDALE... FAITH...
CALMER... WILSON LAKE... UNIONVILLE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 530 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 41 AND 46.

A tornado emergency this early in the year. Never good. :(
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5086
Three tornado signatures...

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Tornado EMERGENCY in effect for WEST CENTRAL LINCOLN...
SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM
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SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 6
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
730 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 730 PM UNTIL
200 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
EVANSVILLE INDIANA TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 5...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEWD FROM AR TO SE
MO...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE LOW
LEVELS DESTABILIZE AND A COOL AIR MASS ERODES. THOUGH SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SRN HALF OF THE
WATCH AREA...VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND QLCS CIRCULATIONS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW
TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINE IS
EXPECTED...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE
FAST STORM MOTIONS AND 60-70 KT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.


...THOMPSON
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Northern storm does have a tornado.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3852
Tornado on the ground with the northern storm...confirmed.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860
..A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL LINCOLN...
SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM
CST...

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE WARNED AREA...

AT 736 PM CST...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO WITH REPORTS OF
DAMAGE IN FORDYCE. THIS POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GRAYS LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. IN ADDITION TO
THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL
UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
RISON... GRAYS LAKE... TOLEDO...
NEBO... KEDRON... FEENYVILLE...
YORKTOWN... TARRY... RANDALL...
PINEBERGEN... LADD... GRIFFITH SPRING...
GLENLAKE... GLENDALE... FAITH...
CALMER... WILSON LAKE... UNIONVILLE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 530 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 41 AND 46.
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Extensive damage in Fordyce. Tornado still on the ground.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5086
It's not good news...

Reed Timmer: MASSIVE tornado with damage in Fordyce I'm hearing. Maybe tornado emergency.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
My fear is becoming true... tornado is indeed going toward Pine Bluff. Not good. Reed Timmer is on Twitter saying this could be historic outbreak tonight.


He says things like that all the time. I'm desensitized.

Things don't look good for Rison, AR. Still seems probably that tornado activity didn't weaken before heading into the area. Normalized rotation about 1.8 at closest point.
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This needs a tornado warning on it now.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3852
.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5086
It's going to be close for Pine Bluff... 2 clear tornado signatures on the radar.

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I tell ya folks, this long salty GOM fetch is just Low and moving fast to the North here in NOLA,Uptown, One can tell easily there is a a Major Situ North.
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Real hook starting to form on southern storm. Bet it really starts going again.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3852
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Major damage being reported

Oh no! Is it the southern storm heading for Rison.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5086
My fear is becoming true... tornado is indeed going toward Pine Bluff. Not good. Reed Timmer is on Twitter saying this could be historic outbreak tonight.
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Major damage being reported
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860
Southern storm look like it's turning slight curve to left, toward Pine Bluff. Pine Bluff is 1 and half counties away, but storm look like it won't get weaker soon. Praying it won't make it to Pine Bluff...
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
729 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN PRAIRIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
WEST CENTRAL MONROE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHERN LONOKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 800 PM CST

* AT 727 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF ENGLAND...OR 20 MILES NORTH OF
PINE BLUFF. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 60 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
STUTTGART... HAZEN... DE VALLS BLUFF...
ULM... STUTTGART MUNI ARPT...
ROE... PEPPERS LANDING... PARKERS CORNER...
HUMNOKE... HALLSVILLE... ENGLAND...
BRUMMITT... TUCKER... TOMBERLIN...
TOLLVILLE... SLOVAK... SEATON...
FAIRMOUNT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 194 AND 202.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22703
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860
<
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22703
Uh-Oh! The northern storm is also likely producing a strong tornado.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5086
Guessing a strong tornado on the ground with northern storm.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3852
609. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F
9:00 AM FST January 23 2012
===============================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 06 (1003 hPa) located at 22.3S 179.4E is reported as moving south southwest at 10 knots. Position FAIR based on multisatellite/visible infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 27C.

Organization in the past 24 hours has not improved much. Convection displaced east of partially exposed low level circulation center. System lies along the south pacific convergence zone, just to the south of the 250 HPA ridge axis, influenced by strong northwesterly winds in a moderate to high sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked the system and slowly moving it southeastwards without much intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47036
Quoting washingtonian115:
Is that Capp gone????.Because Texas has been getting some rain relief lately.

the cap has been here all weekend--it is part of the set up for tornado outbreaks
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6158
Northern storm getting stronger... and southern storm is still strong.

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Tornado confirmed on the ground near Fordyce.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22703
Tornado on the ground near fordyce. Police report
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3852
Dallas County Sheriff CONFIRMS a tornado on the ground near Fordyce.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860

335
WFUS54 KLZK 230125
TORLZK
ARC025-039-069-079-230215-
/O.NEW.KLZK.TO.W.0005.120123T0125Z-120123T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
725 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CST

* AT 722 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF FORDYCE. DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. IN ADDITION TO
THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING
HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
RISON... GRAYS LAKE... FORDYCE...
TOLEDO... NEBO... KINGSLAND...
KEDRON... FEENYVILLE... YORKTOWN...
TARRY... STAVES... RANDALL...
PINEBERGEN... PALMYRA... LADD...
IVAN... GRIFFITH SPRING... GLENLAKE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 530 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 41 AND 46.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

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602. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
4:00 AM RET January 23 2012
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (968 hPa) located at 18.0S 39.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 3 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
20 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center extending up to 40 NM in the northern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the northern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 18.7S 39.4E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 20.0S 39.1E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 22.2S 38.1E - 95 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 23.6S 38.1E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

Funso continues to go slowly east-southeastward. Deep convection has well consolidated close to the center with very cold cloud tops and a warm point reappears on infrared enhanced pictures. System size is very small and mean sea level pressure has been revised higher. CI has been maintained at 5.0- in relationship with evident start of re-intensification. We can see strong convective activity far away east of the system.

Within the next hours, Funso is expected to remain under the steering influence of the near-equatorial ridge of mid-troposphere situated in the northeast, and should track slowly southeastward. Beyond, a ridge builds in the east of the system and the track might recurve southward and then south-westward. From j+3, a mid-tropospheric ridge rebuilds west of the system and a trough quickly transits south. Both contradictory steering flows might provide deceleration on southward track. An uncertainty exists for the final track and a westward recurve is not totally excluded (like ECMWF forecast) that should bring Funso toward the Mozambique coasts.

Upper level conditions are expected to remain good throughout the forecast period. Funso encounters again high energetic potential sea surface temperature (29C) and it should regularly intensify. At the end of the forecast period, system should weaken again as it will track over less warm waters by going down toward the south.

Inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa island) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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