Flooding, heavy snow, ice storm, and fires hit the Western U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:39 PM GMT on January 20, 2012

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A state of emergency has been declared in Oregon and Washington, where a powerful winter storm brought deadly floods, heavy snows of up to 4 feet, a severe ice storm, and damaging winds Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains of 3 - 8 inches have fallen over a wide swath of Western Oregon since Monday, causing major to record flooding on multiple rivers and creeks. In Albany, Oregon, a family of four drove out of a supermarket parking lot and into a flooded Perwinkle Creek Wednesday night, and were swept away. Two people were rescued, but a 20-month-old boy and his mother drowned. The Marys River in Philomath rose to its highest flood on record yesterday, and will remain at major flood stage today before gradually receding tonight. The rains have tapered off over much of the region today, but renewed rains are expected later today and intermittently into early next week. The storm also brought strong winds to Reno, Nevada, fanning a brush fire that tore through the Reno area, destroying more than 20 homes and forcing thousands to evacuate. Reno experienced sustained winds of 44 mph, gusting to 70 mph, during the afternoon Thursday. The city didn't get any precipitation, and has received just 0.03" of precipitation this year. That fell on Monday, breaking a 56-day streak with no precipitation--the longest wintertime dry streak in city history. Strong winds gusting to 55 mph are expected during the day today, keeping the fire danger high, but heavy rain is expected tonight, which should ease the fire danger. The storm also brought a significant freezing rain event to northern Oregon and Western Washington yesterday, and up to an inch of ice accumulated in some areas, contributing to power outages that affected at least 275,000 people.


Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 7 pm EST Thursday, January 19, of the West Coast winter storm. A second storm, now approaching the coast, can be seen at the left of the image. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Some select snow amounts between 2 pm PST Monday January 16, and 1am PST Friday January 20, as compiled in the latest NOAA/NCEP/HPC Storm Summary:

...CALIFORNIA...
COVINGTON MILL 23.5
WEAVERVILLE 16.0
JUNCTION CITY 12.0

...IDAHO...
KETCHUM 22 NW 38.5
STANLEY 28 NE 32.9
BURLEY 30 SW 22.2

...MONTANA...
HERON 15.3
MISSOULA 15.0
COPPER CAMP 13.0
MANY GLACIER 13.0
HELENA 12.0

...OREGON...
MT. HOOD MEADOWS 50.0
TIMBERLANE 45.0
BEAR GRASS 32.0

...UTAH...
ALTA 16.0 9662 FT
SNOWBIRD 11.0 8100 FT
PARK CITY JUPITER PEAK 5.0

...WASHINGTON...
JUNE LAKE 31.0
SURPRISE LAKE 30.0
LONE PINE 25.0
OLYMPIA 25.0
TACOMA 11.1
SPOKANE 7.7
SEATTLE 7.1

...WYOMING...
OVANDO 24.0
JACKSON 16.2
AFTON 12.0
SOUTH ENTRANCE YELLOWSTONE 11.0

And some select rainfall amounts from the same time period:

...CALIFORNIA...
GASQUET 9.80
CRESCENT CITY/MC NAMARA FIELD 5.87
ARCATA AIRPORT 3.63
EUREKA 3.23

...OREGON...
SWISS HOME 15.50
PORT ORFORD 5 E 11.47
FALLS CITY 10.20
SILVERTON 9 SE 8.83
SALEM/MCNARY FIELD 6.82
PHILOMATH 5 SW 6.68
CAVE JUNCTION 2 N 6.25
N MYRTLE POINT 6.10
CORVALLIS MUNI ARPT 5.98
BROOKINGS 5 NNW 5.50
PORTLAND INTL ARPT 1.75


Figure 2. The Marys River in Philomath, Oregon crested at its highest flood height on record Thursday, and remains at major flood level today. Image credit: NOAA.

The short-term forecast
The storm door will remain open for California and the Pacific Northwest through the weekend and into mid-week, as two more moisture-laden storm systems pound the region. By the time the active weather pattern calms down by mid-week, rainfall totals of 10 - 20 inches are expected along the Oregon coast. Snowfall totals of 4 - 6 feet are likely in the Cascade Mountains of Washington and Oregon, in the Northern Sierra and Shasta/Siskiyou Mountains in California, in the Northern Wasatch and Uinta Ranges of Utah, and in the Northern Rockies from far eastern Idaho/Western Wyoming through Central and Northern Idaho, Northwestern Montana, and Northeastern Oregon. Damaging strong winds will affect the coast from Northern California to Northern Washington during the weekend and into early next week, as well.

Record dry spell ends for California and Nevada
In San Francisco, the first significant rains since November 20 fell yesterday, a modest 0.08". The two-month period November 20 - January 19 saw just 0.26" of rain fall in the city, making it the longest two-month winter dry period in the city since records began in 1850, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. More rain is expected Friday through Saturday.

The long-range forecast
A major atmospheric pattern shift is responsible for the big storm in the Western U.S. The ridge of high pressure that brought Northern California its driest two-month winter period on record Nov 20 - Jan 19 has retreated to the northwest towards Alaska, allowing the subtropical jet stream to dive underneath the ridge and bring a plume of moisture called an "atmospheric river" to the coast. This shift was possible thanks to a weakening of a pressure pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). During December and the first half of January, the AO took on its second most extreme configuration on record. The pressure difference between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low reached its most extreme value since records began in 1865, keeping the winds of the jets stream flowing very rapidly. This pattern bottled the jet stream far to the north in Canada, and prevented cold Arctic air from spilling southwards into the U.S . The combination of a near record-strength AO and a borderline weak/moderate La Ninña event in the Eastern Pacific combined to keep a powerful ridge in place over the Western U.S., deflecting all the winter storms into Canada and Southern Alaska. The AO index has become much less extreme over the past two weeks, though, and is now close to average strength. This has allowed the polar jet stream to sag southwards from Canada into the northern U.S., giving the northern tier of states their first real sustained winter-like weather of the season this week (it's about time!) However, the polar jet is expected to remain far enough north so that no major snow storms will occur in the U.S. during the remainder of January--except perhaps in the Pacific Northwest. It's likely that the lack of storms will make January 2012 one of the top five driest January months on record. This month is also likely to be a top-ten warmest January, but won't be able to challenge January of 2006 for the top spot. That January was an incredible 8.5°F above average in the contiguous U.S., and so far, we are running about 4 - 5°F above average. The AO index is predicted to remain near average or potentially change signs and go negative by the beginning of February, which would allow cold air to spill southwards into the U.S. bringing more typical winter-like weather.

It's too early to say what type of winter weather February might bring, but it might be instructive to look at the last time we had winter like this year's. Like the winter of 2011 - 2012, the winter of 2006 - 2007 started out exceptionally warm, with the AO index reaching its all-time most extreme positive value on record during December and early January. New York City hit 72°F on January 6, 2007, the city's all-time warmest January day. The rest of January 2007 saw a gradual lessening of the extreme AO pattern, much like we are seeing this year, and the AO returned to normal in February 2007. That month was a classic winter month, ranking as the 34th coldest February on record, with several notable snow storms.

Auroras possible this weekend
From spaceweather.com: Active sunspot 1401 erupted Jan. 19th, for more than an hour around 16:00 UT. The long-duration blast produced an M3-class solar flare and a Coronal Mass Ejection that appears to be heading toward Earth. Forecasters say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives during the late hours of Saturday, Jan. 21st. High-latitude (and possibly middle-latitude) sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post titled, The Pacific Northwest’s Greatest Storm: The ‘Storm King’ of January 1880.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Not Good... (catilac)
...with high winds and extreme dry conditions. Fire crews from Reno and Carson City are battling a brush fire burning from 300 to 400 acres is threatening homes in the Washoe City area, centered at 485 Washoe Drive. Door-to-door evacuations are underway. The Reno-Sparks Livestock Events Center is acting as an evacuation center for horses, as a result of the Washoe Drive Fire.
Not Good...
Christmas Tree Down (RenoSoHill)
I guess we were too slow so Mother Nature took it down for us. Winds approaching 100 mph - brushed our house - no damage - missed the truck by 3 feet. $20 porch light destroyed!
Christmas Tree Down
Mother Ship (RenoSoHill)
Another great cloud watching day as the storm approaches
Mother Ship
Snow in Federal Way (hniyer)
Snow clings heavily on trees in the town of Federal Way after the first snow storm of the winter dumped 6 inches of snow and turned the world white.
Snow in Federal Way
Bit of snow! (NicholasLee)
Measured exactly 1 foot of snow right before I shot this picture but its still snowing steadily so that now there's 16 inches of snow, with no signs of stopping! I love it!
Bit of snow!

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Quoting RitaEvac:
Multiple quakes hitting big Island of Hawaii, strongest a 5.0 all within 15 minutes


Eruption imminent?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


High school can indeed be a busy time. Good luck with that.

As far as me being in the path of bad weather goes, I hope I'm not too! We'll see. Our forecast office says we have a chance, but the worst should stay north of me. I'll gladly take some heavy rain, though.
Good luck tonight!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Agreed. Plenty of dangerous weather tonight. Hope you've been doing well.
I'm fine thank you :).However I knew something like this would happen as sson as i saw those temps of the entire nation.Very cold air to the north and warm/mild air to the south.It's a classic setup for server activity.Their's plenty of more to come this year as well.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
Multiple quakes hitting big Island of Hawaii, strongest a 5.0 all within 10 minutes
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
High school had gotten busy... but other wise, I'm doing great. Tonight is indeed dangerous for Arkansas/Mississippi/Tennessee. Hope you're not in the path tonight.


High school can indeed be a busy time. Good luck with that.

As far as me being in the path of bad weather goes, I hope I'm not too! We'll see. Our forecast office says we have a chance, but the worst should stay north of me. I'll gladly take some heavy rain, though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

547
WUUS53 KPAH 230254
SVRPAH
KYC075-MOC133-143-207-230330-
/O.NEW.KPAH.SV.W.0006.120123T0254Z-120123T0330Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
854 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN FULTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
NEW MADRID COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN STODDARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 930 PM CST.

* AT 850 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MALDEN TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF
HOLCOMB...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
PORTAGEVILLE...LILBOURN...NEW MADRID...EAST PRAIRIE...GIDEON...
RISCO...PARMA...MARSTON...CATRON AND BOUNDURANT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CST MONDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3640 8961 3640 8968 3642 8972 3638 8975
3639 8998 3660 8997 3662 8998 3663 9006
3666 9005 3683 8921 3650 8921 3650 8941
3645 8946 3649 8951 3642 8954 3637 8950
3633 8953
TIME...MOT...LOC 0253Z 255DEG 50KT 3661 8995 3627 8995
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127549

450
WUUS54 KLZK 230253
SVRLZK
ARC011-013-025-230330-
/O.NEW.KLZK.SV.W.0020.120123T0253Z-120123T0330Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
853 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BRADLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL CLEVELAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 930 PM CST

* AT 849 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES
NORTH OF MILLERS BLUFF...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF SMACKOVER...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAMPTON... WEEKS... TRI COUNTY LAKE...
TIPTON... MT ELBA... KINGSLAND...
HEBRON... HARRELL... HAMPTON MUNI ARPT...
ELLISVILLE... CRANE LAKE... WOODBERRY...
TINSMAN... ORLANDO... NEW EDINBURG...
LOCUST BAYOU... DELHI... CHAMBERSVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127549
Hasn't been this many comments in an hour since Irene.....
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Quoting washingtonian115:
LOL.Gulf sst already above average along with other parts of the atlatic.We're gonna get rip to shreds this year.Okay jokes to the side.We should get back on topic.


Agreed. Plenty of dangerous weather tonight. Hope you've been doing well.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA...NERN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 5...

VALID 230159Z - 230330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 5 CONTINUES.

SW OF WW 5...MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE WITH
CONVECTION FORMING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS INTO NERN TX.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE POTENTIAL MATURITY OF SHOWERS THAT HAVE
FORMED SWWD ACROSS FAR NWRN LA INTO NACOGDOCHES COUNTY TX. THIS
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE TRAILING INFLUENCE OF THE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING ACROSS MO/AR. AS THIS FEATURE PROGRESSES
NEWD...ASCENT ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS SHOULD WANE.
STILL...MODERATE INSTABILITY JUXTAPOSED WITH RATHER STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE
THREATS SHOULD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BE SUSTAINED. LATER THIS
EVENING...THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY OVERTAKE THIS
CONFLUENCE AXIS AND MAY REINVIGORATE DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF NERN
LA INTO MS.

..GRAMS.. 01/23/2012


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 33079361 33479315 33779260 33809228 33619197 33239186
32679200 31509304 31079411 31289494 31579499 33079361
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127549
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I understand.
Taz does not :/. But thank you for understanding.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


Pricey, but definitely one of the best radar programs money can buy. If you are more of a weather enthusiast, GRLevel2 or GRLevel3 might be better, cheaper options ($80). If you are a little more experienced with analyzing radar and want the data in a more raw format, GR2Analyst is for you.


Eighty bucks I can spare...and I am def. in the "enthusiest" category. Thank you for the info.
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Quoting nymore:
His opinion ok my opinion bad well that makes sense. Than I say they are all EF 5 you should take cover now. Is that better?




whats make this a EF 5 and get it all overe with
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Good to see you as well. Hope you're doing fine!

Very worried about all in the path of these storms tonight. Our storm chasers are really playing with fire as well since night chasing is very dangerous.
High school had gotten busy... but other wise, I'm doing great. Tonight is indeed dangerous for Arkansas/Mississippi/Tennessee. Hope you're not in the path tonight.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, it IS 2012 after all. Just ask Pat. He'll tell ya. :-)
LOL.Gulf sst already above average along with other parts of the atlatic.We're gonna get rip to shreds this year.Okay jokes to the side.We should get back on topic.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
Quoting washingtonian115:
People this isn't a good time to fight on the blog.Move on please...


OK, that was a 1 time post and i'm moving on
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Lol why do you guys not understand what I'm trying to say. There are some people who read this blog but are not adept with weather. People will take his comment as fact and might go spreading it around. Its not about me not liking it, its about the "safety" of other people.

I understand.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31459
Quoting sunlinepr:
28storms RT @stormchaser4850 DEVELOPING: Large and extremely dangerous tornado reported 7 miles N of De Witt, AR, moving NE at 55 mph (843 pm CST) 16 seconds ago · reply · retweet · favorite


Good thing is, it looks like it's occluding and dying out. Bad thing is, sometimes during the occlusion, tightening of the circulation causes the tornado to briefly strengthen before it dies. Now we have to be watching for a new circulation to cycle up quickly just southeast of that - this process can happen quickly with little warning in situations like tonight.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Lol why do you guys not understand what I'm trying to say. There are some people who read this blog but are not adept with weather. People will take his comment as fact and might go spreading it around. Its not about me not liking it, its about the "safety" of other people.




will you stop makeing this a big deal or i put you on my Ignore
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Quoting fmhurricane2009:


Last time I checked this was a free country that TAWX13 lives in. (maybe not you( I don't get what is wrong with people guessing the intensity of something. It is better to overestimate than under-estimate intensity. I don't get what could go wrong even if his guesses are wrong. "Oh no, instead of going to the restroom I have to go to the interior of the cellar." I am sorry I went on a rant, but you are not god and while you have your opinion you shouldn't be saying that to hin.
His opinion ok my opinion bad well that makes sense. Than I say they are all EF 5 you should take cover now. Is that better?
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Quoting Tazmanian:




has he this said if you dont like what others are saying there's a button. you can hit your going to turn this in too a big deal overe nothing plzs hit Ignore and move on
Lol why do you guys not understand what I'm trying to say. There are some people who read this blog but are not adept with weather. People will take his comment as fact and might go spreading it around. Its not about me not liking it, its about the "safety" of other people.
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Memphis Interactive Radar
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey :).I'm gonna see what this tornado season/hurricane season is gonna bring.Already starting off with a BANG.


Well, it IS 2012 after all. Just ask Pat. He'll tell ya. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
People this isn't a good time to fight on the blog.Move on please...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
Quoting Bluestorm5:
nice to see you again Mississippi...


Good to see you as well. Hope you're doing fine!

Very worried about all in the path of these storms tonight. Our storm chasers are really playing with fire as well since night chasing is very dangerous.
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28storms RT @stormchaser4850 DEVELOPING: Large and extremely dangerous tornado reported 7 miles N of De Witt, AR, moving NE at 55 mph (843 pm CST) 16 seconds ago reply retweet favorite
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Quoting muddertracker:


Pricy. I guess I really don't need it with you guys graciously posting updates :) Thanks for that.


Pricey, but definitely one of the best radar programs money can buy. If you are more of a weather enthusiast, GRLevel2 or GRLevel3 might be better, cheaper options ($80). If you are a little more experienced with analyzing radar and want the data in a more raw format, GR2Analyst is for you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127549
Quoting MississippiWx:
Dude, tornadoes suck. (no pun intended, I swear)

By the way, good evening, everyone.
Hey :).I'm gonna see what this tornado season/hurricane season is gonna bring.Already starting off with a BANG.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
What I'm trying to say is you might confuse other people. I get what your saying but some people will take what you say as fact.




has he this said if you dont like what others are saying there's a button. you can hit your going to turn this in too a big deal overe nothing plzs hit Ignore and move on
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127549
Well the storm with a cone on the ground is heading towards Memphis...
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Quoting WxTracker15:

Hey, can you get on chatango?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31459
Quoting nymore:
You have no way of knowing what is happening on the ground from the radar. Please stop your guessing.


Last time I checked this was a free country that TAWX13 lives in. (maybe not you( I don't get what is wrong with people guessing the intensity of something. It is better to overestimate than under-estimate intensity. I don't get what could go wrong even if his guesses are wrong. "Oh no, instead of going to the restroom I have to go to the interior of the cellar." I am sorry I went on a rant, but you are not god and while you have your opinion you shouldn't be saying that to hin.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Doughnut holes are not to be joked around with. These holes appear on radar when the wind is spinning so violently the radar can't quite get an estimate of how strong it is.


What? No, that isn't quite accurate. The "doughnut hole" appears for similar reasons that we see a hook echo, but it has little if anything to do with the NEXRAD being unable to estimate radial velocity. You might be confusing that with dealias failures.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Dude, tornadoes suck. (no pun intended, I swear)

By the way, good evening, everyone.
nice to see you again Mississippi...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That would be GREarth, a branch of GRlevelX. I am using GR2Analyst, which is also a branch of GRlevelX.

Both of them cost over $200, but for GREarth, you have to own a product of GRlevelX.


Pricy. I guess I really don't need it with you guys graciously posting updates :) Thanks for that.
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28storms NWS Memphis "LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK UNFOLDING ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS...SW TENNESSEE...AND NW MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING" 26 seconds ago · reply · retweet · favorite

28storms RT @ChaserTV Brett Adair has a tornado on the ground W of De Witt, power flashes in the live video feed: ow.ly/8CkXo #arwx 5 minutes ago · reply · retweet · favorite

28storms RT @ArkansasWeather Power flashes reported with #tornado east of Pine Bluff near Cornerstone. This is moving northeast toward De Witt. #arwx 17 minutes ago · reply · retweet · favorite

RLewelling_TWC Multiple power flashes reported 1 miles south of De Witt AR. Unclear if it is a Tornado #severe 22 minutes ago · reply · retweet · favorite

28storms Very LIKELY #Tornado producing couplets passing through Lincoln, Jefferson, & soon to be Arkansas, Co, AR #arwx fb.me/EF8m4x8k 24 minutes ago · reply · retweet · favorite

28storms 2 N Slovak [Prairie Co, AR] amateur radio reports #TORNADO at 07:59 PM CST -- amateur radio operator reports a... fb.me/14LnzrEKh 36 minutes ago · reply · retweet · favorite

28storms Jeremy has a developing wall cloud LIVE on camera west of Stuttgart, AR content.wdtinc.com/popout/index.p… #arwx 38 minutes ago · reply · retweet · favorite

28storms Live stream from a chaser in the #Tornado warned area of Stuttgart, AR... fb.me/1gTH2UnTh 52 minutes ago · reply · retweet · favorite
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You can refer to post #694 as well. It's my guess, and if you don't like it, there's a button.
all you are doing is hyping with no credible evidence. Base velocity vs Storm relative I guess you were right about that too or not. For not even knowing which radar to use you sure seem to know a lot
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813
WUUS54 KMEG 230244
SVRMEG
ARC031-093-111-MOC069-230345-
/O.NEW.KMEG.SV.W.0016.120123T0244Z-120123T0345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
844 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 945 PM CST

* AT 844 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MONETTE TO HARRISBURG...AND MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BAY...
CARAWAY...DELL...DYESS...GOSNELL...GREENFIELD...HA RRISBURG...LAKE
CITY...LEACHVILLE...LEPANTO...MANILA...MARKED TREE...MONETTE AND
TRUMANN.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR BIG LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A STORM SHELTER OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.



LAT...LON 3596 9051 3596 9039 3599 9038 3610 8996
3594 8996 3544 9029 3544 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 248DEG 33KT 3593 9038 3552 9071
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127549
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You can refer to post #694 as well. It's my guess, and if you don't like it, there's a button.
What I'm trying to say is you might confuse other people. I get what your saying but some people will take what you say as fact.
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Dude, tornadoes suck. (no pun intended, I swear)

By the way, good evening, everyone.
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638
WUUS54 KLZK 230241
SVRLZK
ARC095-117-230300-
/O.NEW.KLZK.SV.W.0019.120123T0241Z-120123T0300Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
841 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN MONROE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
EAST CENTRAL PRAIRIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 900 PM CST

* AT 840 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ALLENDALE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRINKLEY...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DE VALLS BLUFF... BRINKLEY... PEPPERS LANDING...
DOBBS LANDING... BISCOE... ALLENDALE...
ALFREY... KEEVIL... BRASFIELD...
RICH... RAINBOW LAKE... NINETY POINT...
MCFARLAND BRAKE... MALOY BAYOU... JEFFRIES...
HICKSON LAKE... GREENLEE PARK... EMMONS...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 204 AND 218.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127549
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127549
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
You have no idea what is going on with the ground. Sure there is likely a tornado but your saying an EF4 based on radar? Wait for ratings till damage reports come in. Guessing saying its strong is fine but giving it a rating makes it seem official to some people.

You can refer to post #694 as well. It's my guess, and if you don't like it, there's a button.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31459
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127549
Quoting WxTracker15:

Its a paid program... only open to owners of other GRLevelX products at the moment though.
www.grlevelx.com


i need that....
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Quoting Bluestorm5:


People thought tornado in Vilonia was an EF5 because the pavement was peeled but it was rated EF2. April 25th, 2011 is the date if you need more research.
2 days before the superout break. I was watching it when it hit the town.
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Quoting muddertracker:


Is this from a pay site?

That would be GREarth, a branch of GRlevelX. I am using GR2Analyst, which is also a branch of GRlevelX.

GR2Analyst costs $250, and GREarth costs $180, but for GREarth, you have to own a product of GRlevelX.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31459

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.