Flooding, heavy snow, ice storm, and fires hit the Western U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:39 PM GMT on January 20, 2012

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A state of emergency has been declared in Oregon and Washington, where a powerful winter storm brought deadly floods, heavy snows of up to 4 feet, a severe ice storm, and damaging winds Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains of 3 - 8 inches have fallen over a wide swath of Western Oregon since Monday, causing major to record flooding on multiple rivers and creeks. In Albany, Oregon, a family of four drove out of a supermarket parking lot and into a flooded Perwinkle Creek Wednesday night, and were swept away. Two people were rescued, but a 20-month-old boy and his mother drowned. The Marys River in Philomath rose to its highest flood on record yesterday, and will remain at major flood stage today before gradually receding tonight. The rains have tapered off over much of the region today, but renewed rains are expected later today and intermittently into early next week. The storm also brought strong winds to Reno, Nevada, fanning a brush fire that tore through the Reno area, destroying more than 20 homes and forcing thousands to evacuate. Reno experienced sustained winds of 44 mph, gusting to 70 mph, during the afternoon Thursday. The city didn't get any precipitation, and has received just 0.03" of precipitation this year. That fell on Monday, breaking a 56-day streak with no precipitation--the longest wintertime dry streak in city history. Strong winds gusting to 55 mph are expected during the day today, keeping the fire danger high, but heavy rain is expected tonight, which should ease the fire danger. The storm also brought a significant freezing rain event to northern Oregon and Western Washington yesterday, and up to an inch of ice accumulated in some areas, contributing to power outages that affected at least 275,000 people.


Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 7 pm EST Thursday, January 19, of the West Coast winter storm. A second storm, now approaching the coast, can be seen at the left of the image. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Some select snow amounts between 2 pm PST Monday January 16, and 1am PST Friday January 20, as compiled in the latest NOAA/NCEP/HPC Storm Summary:

...CALIFORNIA...
COVINGTON MILL 23.5
WEAVERVILLE 16.0
JUNCTION CITY 12.0

...IDAHO...
KETCHUM 22 NW 38.5
STANLEY 28 NE 32.9
BURLEY 30 SW 22.2

...MONTANA...
HERON 15.3
MISSOULA 15.0
COPPER CAMP 13.0
MANY GLACIER 13.0
HELENA 12.0

...OREGON...
MT. HOOD MEADOWS 50.0
TIMBERLANE 45.0
BEAR GRASS 32.0

...UTAH...
ALTA 16.0 9662 FT
SNOWBIRD 11.0 8100 FT
PARK CITY JUPITER PEAK 5.0

...WASHINGTON...
JUNE LAKE 31.0
SURPRISE LAKE 30.0
LONE PINE 25.0
OLYMPIA 25.0
TACOMA 11.1
SPOKANE 7.7
SEATTLE 7.1

...WYOMING...
OVANDO 24.0
JACKSON 16.2
AFTON 12.0
SOUTH ENTRANCE YELLOWSTONE 11.0

And some select rainfall amounts from the same time period:

...CALIFORNIA...
GASQUET 9.80
CRESCENT CITY/MC NAMARA FIELD 5.87
ARCATA AIRPORT 3.63
EUREKA 3.23

...OREGON...
SWISS HOME 15.50
PORT ORFORD 5 E 11.47
FALLS CITY 10.20
SILVERTON 9 SE 8.83
SALEM/MCNARY FIELD 6.82
PHILOMATH 5 SW 6.68
CAVE JUNCTION 2 N 6.25
N MYRTLE POINT 6.10
CORVALLIS MUNI ARPT 5.98
BROOKINGS 5 NNW 5.50
PORTLAND INTL ARPT 1.75


Figure 2. The Marys River in Philomath, Oregon crested at its highest flood height on record Thursday, and remains at major flood level today. Image credit: NOAA.

The short-term forecast
The storm door will remain open for California and the Pacific Northwest through the weekend and into mid-week, as two more moisture-laden storm systems pound the region. By the time the active weather pattern calms down by mid-week, rainfall totals of 10 - 20 inches are expected along the Oregon coast. Snowfall totals of 4 - 6 feet are likely in the Cascade Mountains of Washington and Oregon, in the Northern Sierra and Shasta/Siskiyou Mountains in California, in the Northern Wasatch and Uinta Ranges of Utah, and in the Northern Rockies from far eastern Idaho/Western Wyoming through Central and Northern Idaho, Northwestern Montana, and Northeastern Oregon. Damaging strong winds will affect the coast from Northern California to Northern Washington during the weekend and into early next week, as well.

Record dry spell ends for California and Nevada
In San Francisco, the first significant rains since November 20 fell yesterday, a modest 0.08". The two-month period November 20 - January 19 saw just 0.26" of rain fall in the city, making it the longest two-month winter dry period in the city since records began in 1850, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. More rain is expected Friday through Saturday.

The long-range forecast
A major atmospheric pattern shift is responsible for the big storm in the Western U.S. The ridge of high pressure that brought Northern California its driest two-month winter period on record Nov 20 - Jan 19 has retreated to the northwest towards Alaska, allowing the subtropical jet stream to dive underneath the ridge and bring a plume of moisture called an "atmospheric river" to the coast. This shift was possible thanks to a weakening of a pressure pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). During December and the first half of January, the AO took on its second most extreme configuration on record. The pressure difference between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low reached its most extreme value since records began in 1865, keeping the winds of the jets stream flowing very rapidly. This pattern bottled the jet stream far to the north in Canada, and prevented cold Arctic air from spilling southwards into the U.S . The combination of a near record-strength AO and a borderline weak/moderate La Ninña event in the Eastern Pacific combined to keep a powerful ridge in place over the Western U.S., deflecting all the winter storms into Canada and Southern Alaska. The AO index has become much less extreme over the past two weeks, though, and is now close to average strength. This has allowed the polar jet stream to sag southwards from Canada into the northern U.S., giving the northern tier of states their first real sustained winter-like weather of the season this week (it's about time!) However, the polar jet is expected to remain far enough north so that no major snow storms will occur in the U.S. during the remainder of January--except perhaps in the Pacific Northwest. It's likely that the lack of storms will make January 2012 one of the top five driest January months on record. This month is also likely to be a top-ten warmest January, but won't be able to challenge January of 2006 for the top spot. That January was an incredible 8.5°F above average in the contiguous U.S., and so far, we are running about 4 - 5°F above average. The AO index is predicted to remain near average or potentially change signs and go negative by the beginning of February, which would allow cold air to spill southwards into the U.S. bringing more typical winter-like weather.

It's too early to say what type of winter weather February might bring, but it might be instructive to look at the last time we had winter like this year's. Like the winter of 2011 - 2012, the winter of 2006 - 2007 started out exceptionally warm, with the AO index reaching its all-time most extreme positive value on record during December and early January. New York City hit 72°F on January 6, 2007, the city's all-time warmest January day. The rest of January 2007 saw a gradual lessening of the extreme AO pattern, much like we are seeing this year, and the AO returned to normal in February 2007. That month was a classic winter month, ranking as the 34th coldest February on record, with several notable snow storms.

Auroras possible this weekend
From spaceweather.com: Active sunspot 1401 erupted Jan. 19th, for more than an hour around 16:00 UT. The long-duration blast produced an M3-class solar flare and a Coronal Mass Ejection that appears to be heading toward Earth. Forecasters say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives during the late hours of Saturday, Jan. 21st. High-latitude (and possibly middle-latitude) sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post titled, The Pacific Northwest’s Greatest Storm: The ‘Storm King’ of January 1880.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Not Good... (catilac)
...with high winds and extreme dry conditions. Fire crews from Reno and Carson City are battling a brush fire burning from 300 to 400 acres is threatening homes in the Washoe City area, centered at 485 Washoe Drive. Door-to-door evacuations are underway. The Reno-Sparks Livestock Events Center is acting as an evacuation center for horses, as a result of the Washoe Drive Fire.
Not Good...
Christmas Tree Down (RenoSoHill)
I guess we were too slow so Mother Nature took it down for us. Winds approaching 100 mph - brushed our house - no damage - missed the truck by 3 feet. $20 porch light destroyed!
Christmas Tree Down
Mother Ship (RenoSoHill)
Another great cloud watching day as the storm approaches
Mother Ship
Snow in Federal Way (hniyer)
Snow clings heavily on trees in the town of Federal Way after the first snow storm of the winter dumped 6 inches of snow and turned the world white.
Snow in Federal Way
Bit of snow! (NicholasLee)
Measured exactly 1 foot of snow right before I shot this picture but its still snowing steadily so that now there's 16 inches of snow, with no signs of stopping! I love it!
Bit of snow!

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A near stationary supercell remained over the township on Bredbo, NSW, Australia for the best part of 90mins, with heavy rain causing extensive flooding, multiple hail showers up to 2cm(1"), and this tornadic event to the north east of the township. This footage was taken 16kms(10miles) north of Bredbo looking south east from around 3:38pm till approx 3:50pm.


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Quoting Ameister12:

a hurricane?
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
149. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ETHEL (07-20112012)
10:00 AM RET January 21 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ethel (986 hPa) located at 21.3S 63.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
================
10 to 20 NM radius from the center extending up to 35 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 to 40 NM radius from the center extending up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
80 NM radius from the center in the northern semi-circle extending up to 110 to 180 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 23.0S 63.4E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 24.9S 63.7E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 31.5S 67.0E - 45 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================

Cloud pattern remains an embedded center pattern without significant evolution for the last 6 hours. Latest CIMSS shear analysis still show a constant northwesterly shear at about 15 knots over the system. This wind shear might strengthen within the next hours.

Most available numerical weather prediction models remain in good agreement to forecast a southward then south-south-eastward track within the next 24-36 hours. Beyond, system might be aspire in the westerly circulation of mid-latitudes with a south-eastward re-curving motion and a clear extra-tropicalization. Strong winds should persist during this extra-tropicalization.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
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Quoting Ameister12:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN ALABAMA
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHWEST AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1035 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI TO 75 MILES NORTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT
ACROSS TN. STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD/SEWD OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
TN...AND A MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD FROM OK/AR/MO. THE WARM SECTOR
S OF THE FRONT IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
OVERNIGHT...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR IN THE MOIST/STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.


...THOMPSON


No real convection as of yet. Judging by a quick glance, I've seen this situation numerous times in my own neighborhood; it appears that the area of greatest isentropic lift is confined primarily north of the watch area.

We might see a few storms try and go severe with time, but a widespread event seems improbable at this point.
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Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5074

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN ALABAMA
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHWEST AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1035 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI TO 75 MILES NORTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT
ACROSS TN. STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD/SEWD OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
TN...AND A MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD FROM OK/AR/MO. THE WARM SECTOR
S OF THE FRONT IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
OVERNIGHT...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR IN THE MOIST/STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.


...THOMPSON
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5074


Funso is getting beautiful.
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144. skook
Some Information on The Mozambique channel.

Link

Taken from the above article
"The tropical cyclone season is from November through April, the
highest frequency of occurrence being in January and February."

Modern day Cyclones in the South-West Indian Ocean.
Link

Just a few Cyclones to hit in Funso's cone of uncertainty.
Link
Leon-Eline from 2000 to hit Mozambique.



Jahpet from 2003.


Link




Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 368
Well, thats my nickel i throw in tonight. be back tomorrow fresh. goodnight all!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




I always miss the action...
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488

500mb GFS forecast for 1 PM EST
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Funso sure looks bad....im giving it 95 knots as of now
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Wow! It's terrible where I live. The ground is completely ice!
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5074
Quoting TampaSpin:



TRUST is in the eyes of Truth and Honesty. Seems there is a lot of dishonest peeps that confuse their own agenda first.


If truth and honesty were absolutes, then that would make sense. But both truth and honesty are subjective.

Facts are not subjective and remain the same no matter how much you wish to believe otherwise.

It can be far easier to accept the truth, than to face the facts. Especially if that truth is exactly what you want to hear.
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Quoting bappit:

I'm not so sure. From the article:

Bill Taylor of KENS-TV San Antonio, TX makes the interesting statement: “We TV weathermen do not agree on man-made global warming”

I notice that he does not describe himself as a meteorologist, let alone as a climatologist. Also, he says they don't agree. With each other? Certainly possible. His statement suggests that some TV weathermen are in agreement with AGW. I don't think they'd be forthcoming about it in today's politically charged atmosphere though.


To further the point, you don't need a Ph.D in meteorology to be a TV weatherman. You don't even need a bachelors. You can take broadcast certification exam offered by the AMS. If you have half a clue about weather, you can get your certification and be qualified to become a TV met.

So being a TV met most certainly does not imply that the person is an expert in meteorology, let alone an expert in climatology.
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"If we all just ignore AGW, eventually the problem will go away! Because it's so much easier to ***** about something rather than do active research and change the way I live!"
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Quoting Chicklit:


Isn't saying 'don't push climate change on me' something like saying, 'I just don't wanna know?'


Ignorance is bliss you know.

*whistles*
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Should have clarified, that's what I'm talking about.


Ah. Makes sense.

New IR:



New VIS:

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Quoting Neapolitan:

I don't know that anyone's saying TV forecaster should "push" climate change--but don't they have a responsibility and a duty to be honest about the science when it comes up?


Isn't saying 'don't push climate change on me' the same as, 'I just don't wanna know'?
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Following up this article ..Result of endoscope operation on 1/19/2012
Tepco released the video of the operation.




Published: January 20th, 2012 at 03:50 AM EDT | Email Article Email Article
By Enenews Admin

Japan Times: Much of melted fuel is believed to have burned down to bottom of containment vessels — At “last line of defense”


Title: Camera peeks inside reactor
Source: The Japan Times Online
Author: KAZUAKI NAGATA
Date: Jan 20, 2012

[...] Obtaining a clearer picture inside the containment vessels of the three crippled reactors is critically important, as the vessels are the last line of defense containing their melted nuclear fuel.
In particular, Tepco needs to find out about the state of the melted nuclear fuel at the reactor cores [...]
The endoscope is unlikely to help Tepco to determine the state of the melted nuclear fuel, much of which is believed to have burned down to the bottom of the containment vessels [...]



3rd VIDEO HERE.... Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Locals calling for another chance of rain. Hope it happens! :D

Tuesday will start off sunny, but increasing cloudiness is expected during the afternoon. A 50% coverage of rain is expected to develop during the evening hours. Lows will be in the lower 40s with afternoon highs in the upper 60s. East to southeasterly winds are forecasted.

Wednesday looks wet and possibly stormy. A 90% coverage of rain and thunderstorms is expected by the afternoon/evening hours. 1-3 inches of rainfall is possible. Severe weather is possible. Lows will be in the upper 50s with high near 70. Windy south-southeasterly winds will gust to 25 mph.

Thursday Morning, a cold front will push through the area. An 80% coverage of light to moderate rain is expected for most of the day.



You can't trust that forecast....LOL, especially if they are anti-GW peeps.
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Locals calling for another chance of rain. Hope it happens! :D

Tuesday will start off sunny, but increasing cloudiness is expected during the afternoon. A 50% coverage of rain is expected to develop during the evening hours. Lows will be in the lower 40s with afternoon highs in the upper 60s. East to southeasterly winds are forecasted.

Wednesday looks wet and possibly stormy. A 90% coverage of rain and thunderstorms is expected by the afternoon/evening hours. 1-3 inches of rainfall is possible. Severe weather is possible. Lows will be in the upper 50s with high near 70. Windy south-southeasterly winds will gust to 25 mph.

Thursday Morning, a cold front will push through the area. An 80% coverage of light to moderate rain is expected for most of the day.
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Quoting yqt1001:


Well, it's actually stalled right now and will be moving away form land for a few days, and then smashing into it again as an even stronger storm. Not a very fun situation, despite the name. Storms in this area aren't all that rare, it's just that Funso will be making landfall in a part of Mozambique that only gets hit once every 3 decades that makes it a very rare storm.


Should have clarified, that's what I'm talking about.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Even if it spins backwards from what I'm used to forecasting, I can tell you this is a HIGHLY dangerous tropical cyclone.


In fact, its intensifying as it moves parallel the coast, one of my worst fears to happen in the Gulf of Mexico. If you'll notice the shape of the coast, its slightly curved and bends into a BOC type shape almost towards the south, and that should act to help ventilate Funso and cause it to intensify even further if it heads down that way. Cyclone's like Funso are very rare to have in this part of Africa that I'm aware of, normally they're more prudent to the east and in a different direction too.


Well, it's actually stalled right now and will be moving away from land for a few days, and then smashing into it again as an even stronger storm. Not a very fun situation, despite the name. Storms in this area aren't all that rare, it's just that Funso will be making landfall in a part of Mozambique that only gets hit once every 3 decades that makes it a very rare storm.

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Quoting Xyrus2000:


First, if you're lying about your forecasts then you are doing it wrong. Second, the only way you can lie about climate change is if you're not relating the scientific facts on the subject.

At any rate, you haven't really made yourself seem like a trustworthy source of information.



TRUST is in the eyes of Truth and Honesty. Seems there is a lot of dishonest peeps that confuse their own agenda first.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Meteorologists who don't buy the AGW theory. They're the experts arn't they? The ones with the Degrees right?
Are a theologian and a philosopher the same thing?
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Even if it spins backwards from what I'm used to forecasting, I can tell you this is a HIGHLY dangerous tropical cyclone.


In fact, its intensifying as it moves parallel the coast, one of my worst fears to happen in the Gulf of Mexico. If you'll notice the shape of the coast, its slightly curved and bends into a BOC type shape almost towards the south, and that should act to help ventilate Funso and cause it to intensify even further if it heads down that way. Cyclone's like Funso are very rare to have in this part of Africa that I'm aware of, normally they're more prudent to the east and in a different direction too.
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Quoting Chucktown:


I already lie enough about the forecast now, you want me to lie about climate change, too.


First, if you're lying about your forecasts then you are doing it wrong. Second, the only way you can lie about climate change is if you're not relating the scientific facts on the subject.

At any rate, you haven't really made yourself seem like a trustworthy source of information.
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
My weather past 16 months, I am praying for 3 to 4 weeks of soaking rains but that is not in our future forecasts, all good rains are staying in East Texas and La. ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM SUNDAY ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM GEORGETOWN TO AUSTIN TO SAN ANTONIO TO
PLEASANTON FOR A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...

.A DRY PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
ON SUNDAY AND BRING MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO THE WEST AND NORTH PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERING AFTER SUNSET.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 4 DAYS.
MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS



Hope there'll be no fires there.
Front not supposed to make it this far and so , hopefully, the fire danger will be less here. The temps are insane for January though!

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012/

SHORT-TERM SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OSCILLATE EASTWARD ON SATURDAY
.PERMITTING A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE PINEY HILLS AND
LAKES REGIONS AROUND NOON.

THE DECELERATING FRONT WILL STALL NEAR A MCCOMB MISSISSIPPI TO
BEAUMONT LINE BY EARLY EVENING SATURDAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OSCILLATING WESTWARD.

FRESHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WASH OUT THE STALLED FRONT BY EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY.

...THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE RUNNING ON THE WARM
SIDE...FROM 25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE THE BENCHMARK NORMALS.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Meteorologists who don't buy the AGW theory. They're the experts arn't they? The ones with the Degrees right?

I'm not so sure. From the article:

Bill Taylor of KENS-TV San Antonio, TX makes the interesting statement: “We TV weathermen do not agree on man-made global warming”

I notice that he does not describe himself as a meteorologist, let alone as a climatologist. Also, he says they don't agree. With each other? Certainly possible. His statement suggests that some TV weathermen are in agreement with AGW. I don't think they'd be forthcoming about it in today's politically charged atmosphere though.
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I think Funso has completely skipped the equivalent of Category 2 on our Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524



A Geo-Magnetic Storm is heading toward Earth and will arrive on Saturday and Sunday. This has a real possibility of messing some things up with Satellites!
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Interesting link Chucktown. Looking down through the article, it seems that some tv weathermen are commenting on AGW--a lot like how Neil Frank commented on the ozone layer when I heard him speak. He was a denier on that issue.

Basically, I feel that these are off-the-job comments that don't really have a bearing on their on-the-job work. One might argue that they are using their reputation as TV weathermen to give credence to some ridiculous statements, but I would suggest another possibility: they are making ridiculous statements to gain credibility in the eyes of their audience. The politicians have already demonstrated that they will totally flip flop on their opinion if they think it will get them votes. (Skyepony posted a video a few days ago showing them in the act.)

I am sure that the link presents only part of the story.
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Meteorologists who don't buy the AGW theory. They're the experts arn't they? The ones with the Degrees right? I'm of the opinion that this just goes to show we need more un-biased research. That may not be possible in these politically charges times tho.
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Quoting Chucktown:


I already lie enough about the forecast now, you want me to lie about climate change, too.



Chuck you just gave me a Chuckle............LOL...NICE
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Quoting Neapolitan:

I don't know that anyone's saying TV forecaster should "push" climate change--but don't they have a responsibility and a duty to be honest about the science when it comes up?


I already lie enough about the forecast now, you want me to lie about climate change, too.
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Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5074
Quoting washingtonian115:
Die Funso.Die!!!!!!!!!.I just hope the little b----rd doesn't cause any series trouble.Funso sounds as though it can be a name of a clown.Funso is a no go for me. :( screw him.


If only he was named Fatso and was a huge storm.....

Any snow over your way washingtonian? I have almost a half an inch on both roads and grass and it is really coming down.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Quoting Chucktown:
What a crock...Just sayin. I will never push the climate change issue on my viewers.


Link

Interesting: "forecast-the-facts-exposes-americas-climate-denie r-tv-weathermen".

Your ratings would probably go down, down, down if you did present it. For day-to-day weather forecasts it is not compellingly relevant, and your audience does not want to deal with the political/economic issues implied by the news.

I heard Neil Frank do some public speaking, and he liked to joke about how he was used to fill up the time at the end of a broadcast. Course, the Houston station got him for the tropical weather. Then he was the star of the show. They brought him out of retirement specifically for Ike.
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Quoting Chucktown:
What a crock...Just sayin. I will never push the climate change issue on my viewers.


Link

I don't know that anyone's saying TV forecaster should "push" climate change--but don't they have a responsibility and a duty to be honest about the science when it comes up?
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
Quoting hydrus:
Could get a little bumpy around here tonight and in the wee hours...

We have a cap in place in SE Texas. Like the outbreaks last spring. A bit windy today, from the SW, clouds. Sending the water vapor your way for now. May change. From the Houston-Galveston forecast discussion:

THE RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK-END IS EXPECTED TO BRING A DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS FROM THE WEST AS MOISTURE LEVELS CLIMB NEAR/AROUND 2". FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND A WEAKENING CAP TO SET THE STAGE FOR CHC/GOOD CHC POPS FOR TUE NIGHT AND WEDS. AS IT STANDS...THERE IS STILL A LOT OF TIME TO FINE TUNE THE NATURE OF SAID ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.
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What a crock...Just sayin. I will never push the climate change issue on my viewers.


Link
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My weather past 16 months, I am praying for 3 to 4 weeks of soaking rains but that is not in our future forecasts, all good rains are staying in East Texas and La. ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM SUNDAY ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM GEORGETOWN TO AUSTIN TO SAN ANTONIO TO
PLEASANTON FOR A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...

.A DRY PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
ON SUNDAY AND BRING MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO THE WEST AND NORTH PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERING AFTER SUNSET.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 4 DAYS.
MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS
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Looking better and better, currently forecasted to peak at 110kt - 125+ miles per hour, or a strong category 3 hurricane. The impact in Mozambique could be major, it is prone to these january-march floods
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Funso's eye is becoming more and more clear.

Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5074


It is here..... Already have a dusting at my house on both grass and roads.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Could get a little bumpy around here tonight and in the wee hours...
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gosh, that's a compact little storm
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.