Flooding, heavy snow, ice storm, and fires hit the Western U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:39 PM GMT on January 20, 2012

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A state of emergency has been declared in Oregon and Washington, where a powerful winter storm brought deadly floods, heavy snows of up to 4 feet, a severe ice storm, and damaging winds Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains of 3 - 8 inches have fallen over a wide swath of Western Oregon since Monday, causing major to record flooding on multiple rivers and creeks. In Albany, Oregon, a family of four drove out of a supermarket parking lot and into a flooded Perwinkle Creek Wednesday night, and were swept away. Two people were rescued, but a 20-month-old boy and his mother drowned. The Marys River in Philomath rose to its highest flood on record yesterday, and will remain at major flood stage today before gradually receding tonight. The rains have tapered off over much of the region today, but renewed rains are expected later today and intermittently into early next week. The storm also brought strong winds to Reno, Nevada, fanning a brush fire that tore through the Reno area, destroying more than 20 homes and forcing thousands to evacuate. Reno experienced sustained winds of 44 mph, gusting to 70 mph, during the afternoon Thursday. The city didn't get any precipitation, and has received just 0.03" of precipitation this year. That fell on Monday, breaking a 56-day streak with no precipitation--the longest wintertime dry streak in city history. Strong winds gusting to 55 mph are expected during the day today, keeping the fire danger high, but heavy rain is expected tonight, which should ease the fire danger. The storm also brought a significant freezing rain event to northern Oregon and Western Washington yesterday, and up to an inch of ice accumulated in some areas, contributing to power outages that affected at least 275,000 people.


Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 7 pm EST Thursday, January 19, of the West Coast winter storm. A second storm, now approaching the coast, can be seen at the left of the image. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Some select snow amounts between 2 pm PST Monday January 16, and 1am PST Friday January 20, as compiled in the latest NOAA/NCEP/HPC Storm Summary:

...CALIFORNIA...
COVINGTON MILL 23.5
WEAVERVILLE 16.0
JUNCTION CITY 12.0

...IDAHO...
KETCHUM 22 NW 38.5
STANLEY 28 NE 32.9
BURLEY 30 SW 22.2

...MONTANA...
HERON 15.3
MISSOULA 15.0
COPPER CAMP 13.0
MANY GLACIER 13.0
HELENA 12.0

...OREGON...
MT. HOOD MEADOWS 50.0
TIMBERLANE 45.0
BEAR GRASS 32.0

...UTAH...
ALTA 16.0 9662 FT
SNOWBIRD 11.0 8100 FT
PARK CITY JUPITER PEAK 5.0

...WASHINGTON...
JUNE LAKE 31.0
SURPRISE LAKE 30.0
LONE PINE 25.0
OLYMPIA 25.0
TACOMA 11.1
SPOKANE 7.7
SEATTLE 7.1

...WYOMING...
OVANDO 24.0
JACKSON 16.2
AFTON 12.0
SOUTH ENTRANCE YELLOWSTONE 11.0

And some select rainfall amounts from the same time period:

...CALIFORNIA...
GASQUET 9.80
CRESCENT CITY/MC NAMARA FIELD 5.87
ARCATA AIRPORT 3.63
EUREKA 3.23

...OREGON...
SWISS HOME 15.50
PORT ORFORD 5 E 11.47
FALLS CITY 10.20
SILVERTON 9 SE 8.83
SALEM/MCNARY FIELD 6.82
PHILOMATH 5 SW 6.68
CAVE JUNCTION 2 N 6.25
N MYRTLE POINT 6.10
CORVALLIS MUNI ARPT 5.98
BROOKINGS 5 NNW 5.50
PORTLAND INTL ARPT 1.75


Figure 2. The Marys River in Philomath, Oregon crested at its highest flood height on record Thursday, and remains at major flood level today. Image credit: NOAA.

The short-term forecast
The storm door will remain open for California and the Pacific Northwest through the weekend and into mid-week, as two more moisture-laden storm systems pound the region. By the time the active weather pattern calms down by mid-week, rainfall totals of 10 - 20 inches are expected along the Oregon coast. Snowfall totals of 4 - 6 feet are likely in the Cascade Mountains of Washington and Oregon, in the Northern Sierra and Shasta/Siskiyou Mountains in California, in the Northern Wasatch and Uinta Ranges of Utah, and in the Northern Rockies from far eastern Idaho/Western Wyoming through Central and Northern Idaho, Northwestern Montana, and Northeastern Oregon. Damaging strong winds will affect the coast from Northern California to Northern Washington during the weekend and into early next week, as well.

Record dry spell ends for California and Nevada
In San Francisco, the first significant rains since November 20 fell yesterday, a modest 0.08". The two-month period November 20 - January 19 saw just 0.26" of rain fall in the city, making it the longest two-month winter dry period in the city since records began in 1850, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. More rain is expected Friday through Saturday.

The long-range forecast
A major atmospheric pattern shift is responsible for the big storm in the Western U.S. The ridge of high pressure that brought Northern California its driest two-month winter period on record Nov 20 - Jan 19 has retreated to the northwest towards Alaska, allowing the subtropical jet stream to dive underneath the ridge and bring a plume of moisture called an "atmospheric river" to the coast. This shift was possible thanks to a weakening of a pressure pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). During December and the first half of January, the AO took on its second most extreme configuration on record. The pressure difference between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low reached its most extreme value since records began in 1865, keeping the winds of the jets stream flowing very rapidly. This pattern bottled the jet stream far to the north in Canada, and prevented cold Arctic air from spilling southwards into the U.S . The combination of a near record-strength AO and a borderline weak/moderate La Ninña event in the Eastern Pacific combined to keep a powerful ridge in place over the Western U.S., deflecting all the winter storms into Canada and Southern Alaska. The AO index has become much less extreme over the past two weeks, though, and is now close to average strength. This has allowed the polar jet stream to sag southwards from Canada into the northern U.S., giving the northern tier of states their first real sustained winter-like weather of the season this week (it's about time!) However, the polar jet is expected to remain far enough north so that no major snow storms will occur in the U.S. during the remainder of January--except perhaps in the Pacific Northwest. It's likely that the lack of storms will make January 2012 one of the top five driest January months on record. This month is also likely to be a top-ten warmest January, but won't be able to challenge January of 2006 for the top spot. That January was an incredible 8.5°F above average in the contiguous U.S., and so far, we are running about 4 - 5°F above average. The AO index is predicted to remain near average or potentially change signs and go negative by the beginning of February, which would allow cold air to spill southwards into the U.S. bringing more typical winter-like weather.

It's too early to say what type of winter weather February might bring, but it might be instructive to look at the last time we had winter like this year's. Like the winter of 2011 - 2012, the winter of 2006 - 2007 started out exceptionally warm, with the AO index reaching its all-time most extreme positive value on record during December and early January. New York City hit 72°F on January 6, 2007, the city's all-time warmest January day. The rest of January 2007 saw a gradual lessening of the extreme AO pattern, much like we are seeing this year, and the AO returned to normal in February 2007. That month was a classic winter month, ranking as the 34th coldest February on record, with several notable snow storms.

Auroras possible this weekend
From spaceweather.com: Active sunspot 1401 erupted Jan. 19th, for more than an hour around 16:00 UT. The long-duration blast produced an M3-class solar flare and a Coronal Mass Ejection that appears to be heading toward Earth. Forecasters say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives during the late hours of Saturday, Jan. 21st. High-latitude (and possibly middle-latitude) sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post titled, The Pacific Northwest’s Greatest Storm: The ‘Storm King’ of January 1880.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Not Good... (catilac)
...with high winds and extreme dry conditions. Fire crews from Reno and Carson City are battling a brush fire burning from 300 to 400 acres is threatening homes in the Washoe City area, centered at 485 Washoe Drive. Door-to-door evacuations are underway. The Reno-Sparks Livestock Events Center is acting as an evacuation center for horses, as a result of the Washoe Drive Fire.
Not Good...
Christmas Tree Down (RenoSoHill)
I guess we were too slow so Mother Nature took it down for us. Winds approaching 100 mph - brushed our house - no damage - missed the truck by 3 feet. $20 porch light destroyed!
Christmas Tree Down
Mother Ship (RenoSoHill)
Another great cloud watching day as the storm approaches
Mother Ship
Snow in Federal Way (hniyer)
Snow clings heavily on trees in the town of Federal Way after the first snow storm of the winter dumped 6 inches of snow and turned the world white.
Snow in Federal Way
Bit of snow! (NicholasLee)
Measured exactly 1 foot of snow right before I shot this picture but its still snowing steadily so that now there's 16 inches of snow, with no signs of stopping! I love it!
Bit of snow!

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202. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting SPLbeater:


ok thx stupid question time. What is Storm Relative Helicity?


It's the potential for rotation in an updraft. It ups the chance for supercells & tornadoes. More about it here & here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:



OBAMA approved and pushed thru the Platform that blew up as his administration cut thru much red tape to do so.....LET THE FACTS BE TOLD!
lol i just saw the movie 2012 last night, maybe oboma will do the same thing as that president did, and stayed behind instead of leaving for safety..one can only hope
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Tornado Warning reissued for the same storm that just had one. The signature is stronger this time as well, and a TVS icon (Tornado Vortex Signature) briefly came up on my radar, indicating a higher potential of a tornado on the ground.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32830
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844

412
WFUS52 KFFC 211716
TORFFC
GAC077-113-211800-
/O.NEW.KFFC.TO.W.0002.120121T1716Z-120121T1800Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1216 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
EAST CENTRAL COWETA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 100 PM EST

* AT 1215 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
SHARPSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PEACHTREE CITY...SENOIA...BROOKS...FAYETTEVILLE AND WOOLSEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO A
BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM ON THE GROUND FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE
A STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...HAIL OR FLOODING...WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8
6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6. YOU CAN ALSO TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG GAWX.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHERN GEORGIA.



LAT...LON 3347 8438 3345 8438 3343 8440 3341 8439
3336 8440 3334 8438 3332 8438 3328 8442
3325 8477 3335 8478
TIME...MOT...LOC 1717Z 261DEG 45KT 3332 8464
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And that weather can affect the attendance to the polls there.
gee i never thought of that, your Right there, bad weather, especially torado watches etc will keep alot of folks home
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Quoting HurrikanEB:
Auroras may dazzle more people than usual this weekend as Earth receives a glancing blow from an enormous solar outburst that erupted on Jan. 19.

Researchers at the University of Alaska’s Geophysical Institute predict that auroras should be visible from Seattle, Des Moines, Chicago, and Cleveland, to Boston and Halifax, Nova Scotia Saturday and Sunday nights, weather permitting.
Link
ive never saw one of these, would it be visable in florida?
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While today has been relatively active in terms of severe weather, I think we'll see a lot more tomorrow...more damaging wind reports, larger hail, more tornado warnings and actual tornadoes. All parameters are sufficiently higher tomorrow than yesterday to support this theory.



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN MO/AR/NRN LA EWD TO
THE W SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
THIS PERIOD -- BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH TIME AS IT
CROSSES THE MS VALLEY LATE. MEANWHILE...A SECOND/WEAKER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC -- REACHING THE W COAST BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
CROSSING THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL LIKEWISE MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD.

...MID AND LOWER MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...
CLOSER AGREEMENT IS EVIDENT AMONG VARIOUS MODELS THIS FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO PATTERN EVOLUTION...WITH TIMING AND LOCATION MORE
CONSISTENT. WITH A HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPRESSED ONLY TO
THE GULF COASTAL REGION BY THE PRIOR FRONTAL INTRUSION...NWD RETURN
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT/ADVANCING SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT MODEST
DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE MID MS
VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON...STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED -- WITH
SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY ONGOING INVOF THE
REMNANT/BACKDOOR/DAMMING FRONT LIKELY TO BE LYING NW-SE ACROSS AL
AND INTO GA.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH
TIME...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD TO/ACROSS THE
SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION -- RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION EVOLVES LINEARLY ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE
EVENING...WHILE A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ATTENDANT/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.


THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION SHIFTS INTO THE MID SOUTH/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION --
BEFORE SOME DECREASE IN INTENSITY OCCURS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 01/21/2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32830
If this moisture in the gulf is picked up by the next system, there could be some serious flooding in parts of the deep south. This next storm will also be negatively tilted, which should enhance the rough stuff a bit.
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Tornado Warning has been cancelled.

I would have never issued a tornado warning on the storm considering the weak velocities that showed up on my radar. However, with what happened in April of last year, I wouldn't blame them being overly cautious.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32830
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.


SVR T-STORM WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 1144 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012
TORNADO WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 1134 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 1132 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 1122 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 1009 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 1059 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012
FLASH FLOOD WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 1050 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 1034 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 1022 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012
FLASH FLOOD WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 1019 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
The rotation appears to be weakening.
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Heard two booms this morning here in central VA. Last one at 11:45 EST. These could be caused by several different things of a local origin but was curious if anyone else heard them.
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First tornado warning of the day, I Believe, in western and central Georgia. This supercell is headed right towards Newman and Peachtree City, and there is a possibility of a tornado on the ground.


(Click to enlarge...as usual)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32830
Tornado warning for Coweta and Heard counties in Georgia. This storm is heading for Peachtree City.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1134 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
COWETA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA
HEARD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 1215 PM EST

* AT 1130 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES WEST OF
FRANKLIN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CENTRALHATCHEE...CORINTH...NEWNAN...MORELAND...SEN OIA...TURIN AND
SHARPSBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO A
BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM ON THE GROUND FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE
A STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...HAIL OR FLOODING...WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8
6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6. YOU CAN ALSO TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG GAWX.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHERN GEORGIA.
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Quoting TampaSpin:








Nice post. Ask , and ye shall receive. It was bad here on the plateau last night. Referring to the temp charts of course..
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Atlanta is getting hit hard by severe storms.

(Click pic for larger image)
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I was reading an article about how the earth's rotation is slowly spinning, and that it will continue to do so for several billion years until an earth day becomes equivalent to about 47 current earth days or so. Link

Assuming that everything else remains the exact same, what theoretical effect would the earth slowing that much have on climate?

I would think that the jet streams (and ocean currents) would weaken significantly, leading to more stagnant air/wind currents... sort of like when shear decreases over the atlantic during el nino years. Thoughts?
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Auroras may dazzle more people than usual this weekend as Earth receives a glancing blow from an enormous solar outburst that erupted on Jan. 19.

Researchers at the University of Alaska’s Geophysical Institute predict that auroras should be visible from Seattle, Des Moines, Chicago, and Cleveland, to Boston and Halifax, Nova Scotia Saturday and Sunday nights, weather permitting.
Link
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How to Forecast Weather (Without Gadgets)







Click on link for much larger version
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Quoting TampaSpin:








Thank you.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17814
Quoting Skyepony:


Helicity is up..


ok thx stupid question time. What is Storm Relative Helicity?
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Funso is so bipolar. He did the exact same thing on Thursday as he did last night. He isn't sure whether or not to be strong, or to kill himself out.

Thursday's peak:



Friday's peak:

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Can anybody post the sst temps for the Atlantic please???.And Funso must die a miserable death for trying to cause such destruction and devestation.








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Quoting LargoFl:
hope SC doest get too many tornado's..looks like rough weather headed their way huh


And that weather can affect the attendance to the polls there.
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Can anybody post the sst temps for the Atlantic please???.And Funso must die a miserable death for trying to cause such destruction and devestation.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17814
Quoting Skyepony:
New climate movie coming out soon.. "Greedy Lying Bastards". Here's the trailer..




OBAMA approved and pushed thru the Platform that blew up as his administration cut thru much red tape to do so.....LET THE FACTS BE TOLD!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
175. Skyepony (Mod)
New climate movie coming out soon.. "Greedy Lying Bastards". Here's the trailer..

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Quoting TampaSpin:



You can't trust that forecast....LOL, especially if they are anti-GW peeps.
hmm my weatherguy said a 20% chance of rain around thurs or friday this coming week..did the forecast change That much?
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Atlanta, GA:



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1022 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN DEKALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
CENTRAL FULTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 1100 AM EST

* AT 1020 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF EAST POINT TO 8
MILES WEST OF EAST POINT TO 12 MILES WEST OF COLLEGE PARK...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MIDTOWN...ATLANTA...DRUID HILLS...GRANT PARK-ZOO ATLANTA...
DECATUR...AVONDALE ESTATES...HAPEVILLE...CLARKSTON...PINE LAKE AND
STONE MOUNTAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...HAIL OR FLOODING...WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8
6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6. YOU CAN ALSO TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG GAWX.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHERN GEORGIA.

&&
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32830
172. Skyepony (Mod)
USA forces aren't the only ones training hard in the Arctic this winter.. S Korean soldiers are also practicing strip & suffer..
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Could get pretty bad today and tomorrow.
hope SC doest get too many tornado's..looks like rough weather headed their way huh
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170. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting SPLbeater:


Maybe I could see some exciting weather today in the Piedmont of NC?


Helicity is up..
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Green oval is the Slight risk, red box is the Tornado watch. Little square icons indicate small hail.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32830
Quoting TampaSpin:


Looks like a South Carolina problem coming.





Maybe I could see some exciting weather today in the Piedmont of NC?
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Tornadoes spin the other way down under, and smack into demolished buildings and leave them like new, that and the rain falls up instead of down.

Quoting AussieStorm:
A near stationary supercell remained over the township on Bredbo, NSW, Australia for the best part of 90mins, with heavy rain causing extensive flooding, multiple hail showers up to 2cm(1"), and this tornadic event to the north east of the township. This footage was taken 16kms(10miles) north of Bredbo looking south east from around 3:38pm till approx 3:50pm.


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Looks like a South Carolina problem coming.



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Could get pretty bad today and tomorrow.
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Quoting yqt1001:


Funso is getting beautiful.


I wouldnt call that beautiful, i would call that deadly. Give it about 500 NM from land then its beautiful LOL
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163. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning. It looks like La Nina doesn't want to go away anytime soon if you look at the daily SOI index.After being briefly on negative status in early January,it has turned positive since the 13th.

Link


ESPI has reflected the same. It went down a touch (0.04) to -1.52 & stayed there all week. It didn't drop to less than what we were thinking was probity peak, so still on the upslope. From what I see we may see little change or slow warming in the next few weeks.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Overnight, Funso rapidly intensified into a major hurricane, but is now weakening. CDO is ragged, eye no longer visible.

I'm thinking that Funso has gotten to close to land. Close enough to weaken it.
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It's Icy out here right now, we got ice and snow mix last night. Finally some winter comin' towards us.
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Proof of how above average this winter really has been in the Southern United States and southwards, SST's are way warmer than they where this time last year.

Jan. 2012.


Jan. 2011.


And for the heck of it, Jan. 2010.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:


I understand the geographical favorable environment, but with all the land to its north and west, and then Madagascar to its east, how is this cyclone not dragging dry air into its core?


Look at post one right above you, land is disrupting the core. It was a highly dangerous cyclone last night, now its weaker.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Even if it spins backwards from what I'm used to forecasting, I can tell you this is a HIGHLY dangerous tropical cyclone.


In fact, its intensifying as it moves parallel the coast, one of my worst fears to happen in the Gulf of Mexico. If you'll notice the shape of the coast, its slightly curved and bends into a BOC type shape almost towards the south, and that should act to help ventilate Funso and cause it to intensify even further if it heads down that way. Cyclone's like Funso are very rare to have in this part of Africa that I'm aware of, normally they're more prudent to the east and in a different direction too.


I understand the geographical favorable environment, but with all the land to its north and west, and then Madagascar to its east, how is this cyclone not dragging dry air into its core?
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Overnight, Funso rapidly intensified into a major hurricane, but is now weakening. CDO is ragged, eye no longer visible.
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Good morning. It looks like La Nina doesn't want to go away anytime soon if you look at the daily SOI index.After being briefly on negative status in early January,it has turned positive since the 13th.

Link
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
It is gettin nasty here on the plateau....
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154. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F
18:00 PM FST January 21 2012
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 06 (1003 hPa) located at 17.1S 179.3E is reported as slow moving. Position POOR based on multisatellite infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28-29C.

Convection remains persistent near the system over the past 24 hours. Organization has not improved much in the last 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends to 850 HPA. TD 06F lies along the south pacific convergence zone, under 250 HPA ridge and east of upper trough in a low to moderate sheared environment.

Global models have picked the system and slowly move it south with little intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.
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153. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FUNSO (08-20112012)
10:00 AM RET January 21 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (952 hPa) located at 18.0S 37.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as quasi-stationary

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
20 NM radius from the center, extending up to 30 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northeastern quadrant

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 75 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 18.5S 38.3E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 18.7S 38.7E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 19.7S 40.0E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 21.7S 39.0E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

System has clearly intensified for the last 6 hours with re-appearance of a small eye. DT average on 6 hours is 5.5. ADT is 5.4. Funso is quasi stationary at 60 NM east from Quelimane. Coasts of Mozambique located between Quelimane and Mualama are very close to the maximum winds and heavy rains area.

Latest available numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system is now embedded within contradictory steering flows. As the subtropical ridge weakens southwards, the movement of Funso should resume today on a east to south-eastwards component under the steering influence of the near equatorial mid-tropospheric ridge existing north of the system.

On Monday 23, the near equatorial ridge should build to the east and to the south-east of the system and will result on a poleward motion for the system. At the end of the forecast period (day 4 and day 5), most of the numerical guidance suggest a westward track that should bring the system over the Mozambican coasts between Beira and Inhambane. An alternate scenario, suggested by the ECMWF ensemble forecast, could be a weaker than expected mid level ridge located to the south-east of the system and consequently a continuing poleward track at long range that will remain oversea.

Within the next 36 hours, system might benefit from good environmental conditions, but intensity should fluctuate a bit such as during the last 12 hours. System is expected to intensify again Monday and Tuesday. In fact, ocean heat content map suggests that the system could move over very warm water around 20.0S. The ocean heat content should be lower after that if the system moves closer to the Mozambican coasts as expected.

Inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa island and the south-western coasts of Madagascar) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..
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A near stationary supercell remained over the township on Bredbo, NSW, Australia for the best part of 90mins, with heavy rain causing extensive flooding, multiple hail showers up to 2cm(1"), and this tornadic event to the north east of the township. This footage was taken 16kms(10miles) north of Bredbo looking south east from around 3:38pm till approx 3:50pm.


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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