Flooding, heavy snow, ice storm, and fires hit the Western U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:39 PM GMT on January 20, 2012

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A state of emergency has been declared in Oregon and Washington, where a powerful winter storm brought deadly floods, heavy snows of up to 4 feet, a severe ice storm, and damaging winds Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains of 3 - 8 inches have fallen over a wide swath of Western Oregon since Monday, causing major to record flooding on multiple rivers and creeks. In Albany, Oregon, a family of four drove out of a supermarket parking lot and into a flooded Perwinkle Creek Wednesday night, and were swept away. Two people were rescued, but a 20-month-old boy and his mother drowned. The Marys River in Philomath rose to its highest flood on record yesterday, and will remain at major flood stage today before gradually receding tonight. The rains have tapered off over much of the region today, but renewed rains are expected later today and intermittently into early next week. The storm also brought strong winds to Reno, Nevada, fanning a brush fire that tore through the Reno area, destroying more than 20 homes and forcing thousands to evacuate. Reno experienced sustained winds of 44 mph, gusting to 70 mph, during the afternoon Thursday. The city didn't get any precipitation, and has received just 0.03" of precipitation this year. That fell on Monday, breaking a 56-day streak with no precipitation--the longest wintertime dry streak in city history. Strong winds gusting to 55 mph are expected during the day today, keeping the fire danger high, but heavy rain is expected tonight, which should ease the fire danger. The storm also brought a significant freezing rain event to northern Oregon and Western Washington yesterday, and up to an inch of ice accumulated in some areas, contributing to power outages that affected at least 275,000 people.


Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 7 pm EST Thursday, January 19, of the West Coast winter storm. A second storm, now approaching the coast, can be seen at the left of the image. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Some select snow amounts between 2 pm PST Monday January 16, and 1am PST Friday January 20, as compiled in the latest NOAA/NCEP/HPC Storm Summary:

...CALIFORNIA...
COVINGTON MILL 23.5
WEAVERVILLE 16.0
JUNCTION CITY 12.0

...IDAHO...
KETCHUM 22 NW 38.5
STANLEY 28 NE 32.9
BURLEY 30 SW 22.2

...MONTANA...
HERON 15.3
MISSOULA 15.0
COPPER CAMP 13.0
MANY GLACIER 13.0
HELENA 12.0

...OREGON...
MT. HOOD MEADOWS 50.0
TIMBERLANE 45.0
BEAR GRASS 32.0

...UTAH...
ALTA 16.0 9662 FT
SNOWBIRD 11.0 8100 FT
PARK CITY JUPITER PEAK 5.0

...WASHINGTON...
JUNE LAKE 31.0
SURPRISE LAKE 30.0
LONE PINE 25.0
OLYMPIA 25.0
TACOMA 11.1
SPOKANE 7.7
SEATTLE 7.1

...WYOMING...
OVANDO 24.0
JACKSON 16.2
AFTON 12.0
SOUTH ENTRANCE YELLOWSTONE 11.0

And some select rainfall amounts from the same time period:

...CALIFORNIA...
GASQUET 9.80
CRESCENT CITY/MC NAMARA FIELD 5.87
ARCATA AIRPORT 3.63
EUREKA 3.23

...OREGON...
SWISS HOME 15.50
PORT ORFORD 5 E 11.47
FALLS CITY 10.20
SILVERTON 9 SE 8.83
SALEM/MCNARY FIELD 6.82
PHILOMATH 5 SW 6.68
CAVE JUNCTION 2 N 6.25
N MYRTLE POINT 6.10
CORVALLIS MUNI ARPT 5.98
BROOKINGS 5 NNW 5.50
PORTLAND INTL ARPT 1.75


Figure 2. The Marys River in Philomath, Oregon crested at its highest flood height on record Thursday, and remains at major flood level today. Image credit: NOAA.

The short-term forecast
The storm door will remain open for California and the Pacific Northwest through the weekend and into mid-week, as two more moisture-laden storm systems pound the region. By the time the active weather pattern calms down by mid-week, rainfall totals of 10 - 20 inches are expected along the Oregon coast. Snowfall totals of 4 - 6 feet are likely in the Cascade Mountains of Washington and Oregon, in the Northern Sierra and Shasta/Siskiyou Mountains in California, in the Northern Wasatch and Uinta Ranges of Utah, and in the Northern Rockies from far eastern Idaho/Western Wyoming through Central and Northern Idaho, Northwestern Montana, and Northeastern Oregon. Damaging strong winds will affect the coast from Northern California to Northern Washington during the weekend and into early next week, as well.

Record dry spell ends for California and Nevada
In San Francisco, the first significant rains since November 20 fell yesterday, a modest 0.08". The two-month period November 20 - January 19 saw just 0.26" of rain fall in the city, making it the longest two-month winter dry period in the city since records began in 1850, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. More rain is expected Friday through Saturday.

The long-range forecast
A major atmospheric pattern shift is responsible for the big storm in the Western U.S. The ridge of high pressure that brought Northern California its driest two-month winter period on record Nov 20 - Jan 19 has retreated to the northwest towards Alaska, allowing the subtropical jet stream to dive underneath the ridge and bring a plume of moisture called an "atmospheric river" to the coast. This shift was possible thanks to a weakening of a pressure pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). During December and the first half of January, the AO took on its second most extreme configuration on record. The pressure difference between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low reached its most extreme value since records began in 1865, keeping the winds of the jets stream flowing very rapidly. This pattern bottled the jet stream far to the north in Canada, and prevented cold Arctic air from spilling southwards into the U.S . The combination of a near record-strength AO and a borderline weak/moderate La Ninña event in the Eastern Pacific combined to keep a powerful ridge in place over the Western U.S., deflecting all the winter storms into Canada and Southern Alaska. The AO index has become much less extreme over the past two weeks, though, and is now close to average strength. This has allowed the polar jet stream to sag southwards from Canada into the northern U.S., giving the northern tier of states their first real sustained winter-like weather of the season this week (it's about time!) However, the polar jet is expected to remain far enough north so that no major snow storms will occur in the U.S. during the remainder of January--except perhaps in the Pacific Northwest. It's likely that the lack of storms will make January 2012 one of the top five driest January months on record. This month is also likely to be a top-ten warmest January, but won't be able to challenge January of 2006 for the top spot. That January was an incredible 8.5°F above average in the contiguous U.S., and so far, we are running about 4 - 5°F above average. The AO index is predicted to remain near average or potentially change signs and go negative by the beginning of February, which would allow cold air to spill southwards into the U.S. bringing more typical winter-like weather.

It's too early to say what type of winter weather February might bring, but it might be instructive to look at the last time we had winter like this year's. Like the winter of 2011 - 2012, the winter of 2006 - 2007 started out exceptionally warm, with the AO index reaching its all-time most extreme positive value on record during December and early January. New York City hit 72°F on January 6, 2007, the city's all-time warmest January day. The rest of January 2007 saw a gradual lessening of the extreme AO pattern, much like we are seeing this year, and the AO returned to normal in February 2007. That month was a classic winter month, ranking as the 34th coldest February on record, with several notable snow storms.

Auroras possible this weekend
From spaceweather.com: Active sunspot 1401 erupted Jan. 19th, for more than an hour around 16:00 UT. The long-duration blast produced an M3-class solar flare and a Coronal Mass Ejection that appears to be heading toward Earth. Forecasters say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives during the late hours of Saturday, Jan. 21st. High-latitude (and possibly middle-latitude) sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post titled, The Pacific Northwest’s Greatest Storm: The ‘Storm King’ of January 1880.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Not Good... (catilac)
...with high winds and extreme dry conditions. Fire crews from Reno and Carson City are battling a brush fire burning from 300 to 400 acres is threatening homes in the Washoe City area, centered at 485 Washoe Drive. Door-to-door evacuations are underway. The Reno-Sparks Livestock Events Center is acting as an evacuation center for horses, as a result of the Washoe Drive Fire.
Not Good...
Christmas Tree Down (RenoSoHill)
I guess we were too slow so Mother Nature took it down for us. Winds approaching 100 mph - brushed our house - no damage - missed the truck by 3 feet. $20 porch light destroyed!
Christmas Tree Down
Mother Ship (RenoSoHill)
Another great cloud watching day as the storm approaches
Mother Ship
Snow in Federal Way (hniyer)
Snow clings heavily on trees in the town of Federal Way after the first snow storm of the winter dumped 6 inches of snow and turned the world white.
Snow in Federal Way
Bit of snow! (NicholasLee)
Measured exactly 1 foot of snow right before I shot this picture but its still snowing steadily so that now there's 16 inches of snow, with no signs of stopping! I love it!
Bit of snow!

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Quoting Ameister12:
Tomorrow is going to be the first significant severe weather outbreak of an already above normal season of tornadoes and severe weather. We should watch out for hail, very damaging winds, and tornadoes, possibly a few violent tornadoes.
yes weather channel is really telling people to be aware of that system tomorrow, a replay, maybe worse than today, gee alot of tornado warnings today, some places GolfBall sized hail? gee those really ruin a car
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Are you sure that's a moderate risk and not just the 30% area?
they will go to mod risk in future update's to convective outlooks next update will reflect that upgrade
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Here's a pic and some discussion of the upwelling beneath a tropical cyclone.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
DAY2 MOD RISK


That's still a slight risk. Yellow=30%.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5082
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Good afternoon to you too. I just got done shoveling an inch of snow, covered in a quarter inch of ice off of my driveway. Needless to say, it was the first shovelable snow of the season, and a pain in the butt to push around.
We had a decent storm last night here in Middle TN. Inch and a half rain, a few 40+ gusts and a lot of lightening...This next system has me concerned. It will be negatively tilted, moisture return will be substantial and the jet runnin at 100 knots or so...I think the jet is underdone...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
DAY2 MOD RISK


Are you sure that's a moderate risk and not just the 30% area?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32809
Tomorrow is going to be the first significant severe weather outbreak of an already above normal season of tornadoes and severe weather. We should watch out for hail, very damaging winds, and tornadoes, possibly a few violent tornadoes.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5082
DAY2 MOD RISK

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Quoting oldnewmex:
I have a question for people knowlegable about tropical weather: Why is TC Funso maintaining (and gaining) strength while pretty much parked in the same spot for several days? I was of the understanding that as a cyclone derived its energy from the heat content of the ocean, it depleted that heat. Is that not the case? TIA for any answers.

Funso is small and not all that strong is my take on it. FWIW, the surface water cooling is mainly due to vertical mixing of the water. That takes time to occur. If the warm water is deep then the mixing has little effect. They have observed cold water wakes left in the track of a tropical cyclone getting stronger after the passage of the storm. The explanation is that the vertical currents are still churning the ocean (inertia) after the storm has moved on.

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Quoting hydrus:
This is true...But it kinda shows the pattern set up, So to me its worth a post..Good afternoon WGV.


Good afternoon to you too. I just got done shoveling an inch of snow, covered in a quarter inch of ice off of my driveway. Needless to say, it was the first shovelable snow of the season, and a pain in the butt to push around.
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Quoting oldnewmex:
I have a question for people knowlegable about tropical weather: Why is TC Funso maintaining (and gaining) strength while pretty much parked in the same spot for several days? I was of the understanding that as a cyclone derived its energy from the heat content of the ocean, it depleted that heat. Is that not the case? TIA for any answers.


I haven't been following it, but it does look like there is enough warm water there to at least maintain its strength Link Based on thise heat potential charts it looks like he is starting to upwell some cooler water, but it also looks like the forecast has it moving again before it can have a negative affect... hence the forecast strengthening.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


CMC really does overdo the precip......
This is true...But it kinda shows the pattern set up, So to me its worth a post..Good afternoon WGV.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting oldnewmex:
I have a question for people knowlegable about tropical weather: Why is TC Funso maintaining (and gaining) strength while pretty much parked in the same spot for several days? I was of the understanding that as a cyclone derived its energy from the heat content of the ocean, it depleted that heat. Is that not the case? TIA for any answers.

There is enough heat content and the waters are warm enough to support Funso at this intensity, despite the fact that it is slow moving.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32809


nice 50-60kt jet over portions of AL, GA, NC & SC.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting hydrus:
CMC has decent rainfall totals for the south..As does the GFS.. And the NOGAPS..


CMC really does overdo the precip......
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I have a question for people knowlegable about tropical weather: Why is TC Funso maintaining (and gaining) strength while pretty much parked in the same spot for several days? I was of the understanding that as a cyclone derived its energy from the heat content of the ocean, it depleted that heat. Is that not the case? TIA for any answers.
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CMC has decent rainfall totals for the south..As does the GFS.. And the NOGAPS..
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I have a feeling we'll see our first EF3 tornado tomorrow. The NAM is giving a SigTor of 5-6, which means that tornadoes, possibly large and violent, are possible. The scary thing is, the NAM usually underestimates things like this.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32809
Quoting Patrap:


Obviously a wunder blogger.
Man that looks hideous..
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I remember the March-1989 aurora in Florida, a rare event indeed...is shown in this image taken around 04:00 Universal Time on 14 March 1989 by the Department of Defense F9 meteorology satellite, from figure 1.17 of Physics of the Plasma Universe, by Anthony L. Peratt (Springer-Verlag 1992).

Solar Flareups-The View From Earth

Rarely has the power of a solar flare been more dramatically displayed than in early March 1989. Over a period of ten days, a series of violent flares unleashed a combined shower of radiation, energized particles, and magnetism that knocked out electricity all across the province of Quebec, rendered normal radio frequencies unusable, and draped the night skies of the Northern Hemisphere with a crimson aurora borealis that could be seen as far south as Key West, Florida.

On March 13, 1989, for example, a radio amateur in Rhode Island was able to contact a second operator in England using the VHF band of 50 megahertz.

As the flares' extreme-ultraviolet flux heated and expanded Earth's upper atmosphere, the increased atmospheric drag reduced the orbital energy of hundreds of satellites in low Earth orbit. This knocked the spacecraft into lower and faster orbits, causing ground controllers to temporarily lose contact with them. Meanwhile, many of the 7,000 orbiting objecs that are tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network were lost from view.

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BREAKING NEWS:
A strong 6.2 earthquake hits Offshore Chiapas Mexico.

Just a month after the 6.5 earthquake that hit in the Mexican State of Guerrero, A new 6.2 earthquake hits offshore near Coatepeque Mexico.

To see more info:

Magnitude 6.2 - OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO


Pretty big fatality rate.





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Big day tomorrow...The first moderate risk for severe weather last year was on February 24, 2011. The first moderate risk for severe weather this year looks to be January 22, 2011.

Is that saying something?



"AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK MAY BE
WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION."
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32809
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Considering that the day will be be about 47 times longer than our current day, and that this will take billions of years to achieve, then I believe that a thought exercise of what out climate will be then is a fairly moot point. In a few billions years, our Sun may very well encompass Earth's orbit and the climate will be, shall we say, very hot. Still, you throw in the caveat that everything else will remain the same.

Well, based upon what I know my own little caveat, Earth will probably not be a very good place to be then. This is with the caveat that all else remains the same, including "life, as we know it". Earth will receive 47 times more hours of sunlight during the day and the absence of our Sun's influence, night time, will also be 47 times longer. The days will become hotter and the nights will become colder. Our atmosphere will try to balance out these temperature differences, as it does today, but, with the same efficiency and effects as we see today. What happens now when warm air and cold air converge? Also, the daylight hours will have more time to produce water vapor into the atmosphere and the nighttime will have more time to remove the extra water vapor from the atmosphere, due to the colder conditions of the night. With all of this considered, I would think that the transition from day to night will be areas of very intense weather events.

Well, that is my thoughts on this. Anyone else want to give it a try? Also, we will need someone to volunteer to stick around that long to see which thought process is the most accurate for what will be observed then. I refuse to do so. I am wrinkled enough already.
It is fun thinking out of the box so to speak tho..All the different possibilities and what ifs..If the Sun were slightly warmer, or if we were a little closer or both. If the Earth,s rotation was a week rather than a day. If the season were like Mars instead of the ones we have now..Neat stuff..:)
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west central Georgia

Tornado Warning
2012-01-21 14:11:28 EST until
2012-01-21 14:45:00 EST

209 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2012

...A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 245 PM EST for northern
Talbot County...

At 208 PM EST...National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a tornado. This tornado was located near Woodland...and
moving east at 45 mph.

Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to
Pleasant Hill...Po Biddy Crossroads...big lazer creek wma and
Prattsburg.
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Watch out for a Moderate Risk of Severe Weather tomorrow.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32809



www.solarham.com

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated Jan 20 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was very low with no flares detected.
Region 1401 (N15W01) showed intermediate spot development during the
period and was classified as an Eki group with beta magnetic
structure. Region 1402 (N28E03) showed no significant changes and
was classified as a Dki group with beta magnetic structure. No new
regions were numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (21 - 23 January) with a chance for an M-class
flare from Region 1401 or 1402.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. An enhancement of the greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit began around 20/0800Z and
continued through the end of the period. The enhancement was
associated with the long-duration M3/2n flare observed on 19
January.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (21 January) and most of
day 2 (22 January). Field activity is expected to increase to
unsettled to active levels late on day 2 and day 3 (23 January) with
a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of the halo-CME
observed on 19 January. There will be a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit during the period.

III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF Green


[Latest and Full Report]
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129806
Quoting HurrikanEB:
I was reading an article about how the earth's rotation is slowly spinning, and that it will continue to do so for several billion years until an earth day becomes equivalent to about 47 current earth days or so. Link

Assuming that everything else remains the exact same, what theoretical effect would the earth slowing that much have on climate?

I would think that the jet streams (and ocean currents) would weaken significantly, leading to more stagnant air/wind currents... sort of like when shear decreases over the atlantic during el nino years. Thoughts?



Considering that the day will be about 47 times longer than our current day, and that this will take billions of years to achieve, then I believe that a thought exercise of what out climate will be then is a fairly moot point. In a few billions years, our Sun may very well encompass Earth's orbit and the climate will be, shall we say, very hot. Still, you throw in the caveat that everything else will remain the same.

Well, based upon what I know my own little caveat, Earth will probably not be a very good place to be then. This is with the caveat that all else remains the same, including "life, as we know it". Earth will receive 47 times more exposure to sunlight during the day and the absence of our Sun's influence, night time, will also be 47 times longer. The days will become hotter and the nights will become colder. Our atmosphere will try to balance out these temperature differences, as it does today, but, with the same efficiency and effects as we see today. What happens now when warm air and cold air converge? Also, the daylight hours will have more time to produce water vapor into the atmosphere and the nighttime will have more time to remove the extra water vapor from the atmosphere, due to the colder conditions of the night. With all of this considered, I would think that the transition from day to night will be areas of very intense weather events.

Well, that is my thoughts on this. Anyone else want to give it a try? Also, we will need someone to volunteer to stick around that long to see which thought process is the most accurate for what will be observed then. I refuse to do so. I am wrinkled enough already.

**** Corrected typos. Stupid keyboard!
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The Self aware Universe

,,step out of the "illusion" and enter Truth.



Superimposed images of semi-transparent photo of the Nautilus Shell and Galaxy IC 342
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129806
Quoting LargoFl:
ive never saw one of these, would it be visable in florida?


On occasion they are visible in the deep south, but not this one. This one will only be visible down through extreme northern pennsylvania.

Link

The green line along the bottom represents its southern most visible limit and where it would occur just above the horizon. Personally i've only seen it once in new york. Florida ones are pretty rare but who knows... we're entering an active phase of the sun, so maybe you'll get lucky within the next few years :)
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Amazing news of the day.... Man shoots 3½-inch nail into brain -- and survives

Excerpt:

Autullo didn’t even realize what he had done until an X-ray showed the results some 36 hours later. He had thought the nail whizzed by his head. There was only a small mark, and it wasn’t until he felt nauseated the next day that Glaenzer took him to an immediate care center for a checkup.





Obviously a wunder blogger.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129806
Quoting BtnTx:
What kind of names are those, who has ever known a Newt or a Mitt???


I know a Stu and a Mitch... And I had a pet newt.
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Willard, Willard, Willard,


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129806
Amazing news of the day.... Man shoots 3½-inch nail into brain -- and survives

Excerpt:

Autullo didn’t even realize what he had done until an X-ray showed the results some 36 hours later. He had thought the nail whizzed by his head. There was only a small mark, and it wasn’t until he felt nauseated the next day that Glaenzer took him to an immediate care center for a checkup.



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218. BtnTx
Quoting pottery:

Kind of disheartening when the choice comes down to between a Newt and a Mitt, isn't it?

:):))
What kind of names are those, who has ever known a Newt or a Mitt???
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For those who may want to comment about the SC Primary,I have a blog dedicated to that.

Link
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Quoting pottery:

Kind of disheartening when the choice comes down to between a Newt and a Mitt, isn't it?

:):))


Don't forget Santorum.... I'm not affiliated with any party, but I think he is the best Republican candidate still running.
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Quoting pottery:

Kind of disheartening when the choice comes down to between a Newt and a Mitt, isn't it?

:):))
Mitt has an interesting background....Link
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Cant say I like the looks of this.....................ARKLATEX/OZARKS AND MID-SOUTH TO MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS...
AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK MAY BE
WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...AND THAT A
RELATIVELY MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS WILL ONLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE GULF
COAST REGION WITH THE DAY-1 FRONTAL PASSAGE...A RELATIVELY
QUICK/QUALITY RETURN OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS UPPER
TROUGH. THIS RELATIVELY MOIST/BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL BE TO THE
EAST-SOUTHWARD OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE LAKE
MI VICINITY BY EARLY MONDAY. NEAR AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING DRY LINE AND
/MORE SO/ PACIFIC FRONT...INITIAL DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH AS EARLY AS LATE
AFTERNOON /OR MORE LIKELY/ SUNDAY EVENING. MORE DISCRETE/POTENTIALLY
SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT COULD ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUALLY
MOISTENS/CAPPING ALOFT ABATES.

GIVEN MORE THAN ADEQUATE MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION...A ROBUST WIND
FIELD /HIGHLIGHTED BY 90-100 KT AROUND 500 MB AND 55-65 KT WITHIN
THE LOWEST 1-2 KM/ WILL FAVOR HIGHLY ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH
ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY EVENING...WITH AN
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE EPISODE PLAUSIBLE. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT A MULTI-FACETED STORM MODE SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH
SUNDAY EARLY/MID-EVENING...INCLUDING INITIAL SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF WHAT WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR
QUICK-CLUSTERING/LINEAR EVOLUTION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
ADVANCING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. A PREVALENT QUASI-LINEAR MODE/FAST
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM MS/AL INTO PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY/LOWER
OH VALLEY. AS SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT /IN AN ISOLATED SENSE AT THE
VERY LEAST/ WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF MONDAY.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
We have to vote for Gingrich now, because Chuck Norris says so...
Newt Gingrich is a smart man, but he will never be president...jmo....He holds a PH.D, I wonder why they never call him Dr.Gingrich.?
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looks like I am going to miss all the severe weather. :D I dont know which is worse; severe weather or a boring slow rain that keeps you inside!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting WxGeekVA:
We have to vote for Gingrich now, because Chuck Norris says so...

Kind of disheartening when the choice comes down to between a Newt and a Mitt, isn't it?

:):))
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Hmmm, 33,000 footer, 68 dBZ, 2 inch hail, headed towards Macon.
Might be time to put the full head motorcycle helmets in the Master Bedroom Closet.
Will unplug and go battery power when it gets close.
Too bad we don't have two of those small reserve chutes that go around your waist.
Just as the roof went and we got sucked out we could pull the handle.
Don't laugh. It might work!
As long as we didn't get hit by a 2 by 4 or a flying cow. :)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does anybody know what the damage total from the Tuscaloosa tornado was?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32809
Quoting Skyepony:
Ethel is crashing..Looks like a victim of shear & sudden drop in temps.

Hopefully Shear will do the same to Funso.So that he can die a miserable death.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17803
We have to vote for Gingrich now, because Chuck Norris says so...
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206. Skyepony (Mod)
Ethel is crashing..Looks like a victim of shear & sudden drop in temps.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 4
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN ALABAMA
GEORGIA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL
800 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AUBURN
ALABAMA TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ORANGEBURG SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 3...

DISCUSSION...QLCS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF WEDGE
FRONT PASSAGE TODAY. 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS GA INTO SC...SUPPORTING AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION IN THESE AREAS. WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-55 KT OF
DEEP...WLY SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-400 M2/S2...SETUP WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS
MOVE/DEVELOP EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32809
Quoting Skyepony:


It's the potential for rotation in an updraft. It ups the chance for supercells & tornadoes. More about it here & here.


Ok thanks very much. Kind of disturbing..because, my county DID lie underneath a section of values of 500-750:/
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 4
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2012

TORNADO WATCH 4 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ALC005-011-017-027-067-081-087-111-113-123-220100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0004.120121T1730Z-120122T0100Z/

AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBOUR BULLOCK CHAMBERS
CLAY HENRY LEE
MACON RANDOLPH RUSSELL
TALLAPOOSA


GAC009-013-017-021-023-031-033-035-037-043-045-053 -059-061-063-
073-077-079-081-089-091-093-095-097-107-109-113-12 1-125-133-135-
141-145-149-151-153-157-159-163-165-167-169-171-17 5-177-181-189-
193-195-197-199-207-209-211-215-217-219-221-225-23 1-235-237-239-
243-245-247-249-251-255-259-261-263-265-267-269-27 1-273-279-283-
285-287-289-293-297-301-303-307-309-315-317-319-32 1-220100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0004.120121T1730Z-120122T0100Z/

GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALDWIN BARROW BEN HILL
BIBB BLECKLEY BULLOCH
BURKE BUTTS CALHOUN
CANDLER CARROLL CHATTAHOOCHEE
CLARKE CLAY CLAYTON
COLUMBIA COWETA CRAWFORD
CRISP DEKALB DODGE
DOOLY DOUGHERTY DOUGLAS
EMANUEL EVANS FAYETTE
FULTON GLASCOCK GREENE
GWINNETT HANCOCK HARRIS
HEARD HENRY HOUSTON
JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON
JENKINS JOHNSON JONES
LAMAR LAURENS LEE
LINCOLN MACON MADISON
MARION MCDUFFIE MERIWETHER
MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN
MUSCOGEE NEWTON OCONEE
OGLETHORPE PEACH PIKE
PULASKI PUTNAM QUITMAN
RANDOLPH RICHMOND ROCKDALE
SCHLEY SCREVEN SPALDING
STEWART SUMTER TALBOT
TALIAFERRO TATTNALL TAYLOR
TELFAIR TERRELL TOOMBS
TREUTLEN TROUP TURNER
TWIGGS UPSON WALTON
WARREN WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WHEELER WILCOX WILKES
WILKINSON WORTH


SCC003-005-009-011-017-037-039-049-063-065-071-075 -079-081-
220100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0004.120121T1730Z-120122T0100Z/

SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AIKEN ALLENDALE BAMBERG
BARNWELL CALHOUN EDGEFIELD
FAIRFIELD HAMPTON LEXINGTON
MCCORMICK NEWBERRY ORANGEBURG
RICHLAND SALUDA


ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...TAE...FFC...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32809
202. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting SPLbeater:


ok thx stupid question time. What is Storm Relative Helicity?


It's the potential for rotation in an updraft. It ups the chance for supercells & tornadoes. More about it here & here.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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