Flooding, heavy snow, ice storm, and fires hit the Western U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:39 PM GMT on January 20, 2012

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A state of emergency has been declared in Oregon and Washington, where a powerful winter storm brought deadly floods, heavy snows of up to 4 feet, a severe ice storm, and damaging winds Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains of 3 - 8 inches have fallen over a wide swath of Western Oregon since Monday, causing major to record flooding on multiple rivers and creeks. In Albany, Oregon, a family of four drove out of a supermarket parking lot and into a flooded Perwinkle Creek Wednesday night, and were swept away. Two people were rescued, but a 20-month-old boy and his mother drowned. The Marys River in Philomath rose to its highest flood on record yesterday, and will remain at major flood stage today before gradually receding tonight. The rains have tapered off over much of the region today, but renewed rains are expected later today and intermittently into early next week. The storm also brought strong winds to Reno, Nevada, fanning a brush fire that tore through the Reno area, destroying more than 20 homes and forcing thousands to evacuate. Reno experienced sustained winds of 44 mph, gusting to 70 mph, during the afternoon Thursday. The city didn't get any precipitation, and has received just 0.03" of precipitation this year. That fell on Monday, breaking a 56-day streak with no precipitation--the longest wintertime dry streak in city history. Strong winds gusting to 55 mph are expected during the day today, keeping the fire danger high, but heavy rain is expected tonight, which should ease the fire danger. The storm also brought a significant freezing rain event to northern Oregon and Western Washington yesterday, and up to an inch of ice accumulated in some areas, contributing to power outages that affected at least 275,000 people.


Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 7 pm EST Thursday, January 19, of the West Coast winter storm. A second storm, now approaching the coast, can be seen at the left of the image. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Some select snow amounts between 2 pm PST Monday January 16, and 1am PST Friday January 20, as compiled in the latest NOAA/NCEP/HPC Storm Summary:

...CALIFORNIA...
COVINGTON MILL 23.5
WEAVERVILLE 16.0
JUNCTION CITY 12.0

...IDAHO...
KETCHUM 22 NW 38.5
STANLEY 28 NE 32.9
BURLEY 30 SW 22.2

...MONTANA...
HERON 15.3
MISSOULA 15.0
COPPER CAMP 13.0
MANY GLACIER 13.0
HELENA 12.0

...OREGON...
MT. HOOD MEADOWS 50.0
TIMBERLANE 45.0
BEAR GRASS 32.0

...UTAH...
ALTA 16.0 9662 FT
SNOWBIRD 11.0 8100 FT
PARK CITY JUPITER PEAK 5.0

...WASHINGTON...
JUNE LAKE 31.0
SURPRISE LAKE 30.0
LONE PINE 25.0
OLYMPIA 25.0
TACOMA 11.1
SPOKANE 7.7
SEATTLE 7.1

...WYOMING...
OVANDO 24.0
JACKSON 16.2
AFTON 12.0
SOUTH ENTRANCE YELLOWSTONE 11.0

And some select rainfall amounts from the same time period:

...CALIFORNIA...
GASQUET 9.80
CRESCENT CITY/MC NAMARA FIELD 5.87
ARCATA AIRPORT 3.63
EUREKA 3.23

...OREGON...
SWISS HOME 15.50
PORT ORFORD 5 E 11.47
FALLS CITY 10.20
SILVERTON 9 SE 8.83
SALEM/MCNARY FIELD 6.82
PHILOMATH 5 SW 6.68
CAVE JUNCTION 2 N 6.25
N MYRTLE POINT 6.10
CORVALLIS MUNI ARPT 5.98
BROOKINGS 5 NNW 5.50
PORTLAND INTL ARPT 1.75


Figure 2. The Marys River in Philomath, Oregon crested at its highest flood height on record Thursday, and remains at major flood level today. Image credit: NOAA.

The short-term forecast
The storm door will remain open for California and the Pacific Northwest through the weekend and into mid-week, as two more moisture-laden storm systems pound the region. By the time the active weather pattern calms down by mid-week, rainfall totals of 10 - 20 inches are expected along the Oregon coast. Snowfall totals of 4 - 6 feet are likely in the Cascade Mountains of Washington and Oregon, in the Northern Sierra and Shasta/Siskiyou Mountains in California, in the Northern Wasatch and Uinta Ranges of Utah, and in the Northern Rockies from far eastern Idaho/Western Wyoming through Central and Northern Idaho, Northwestern Montana, and Northeastern Oregon. Damaging strong winds will affect the coast from Northern California to Northern Washington during the weekend and into early next week, as well.

Record dry spell ends for California and Nevada
In San Francisco, the first significant rains since November 20 fell yesterday, a modest 0.08". The two-month period November 20 - January 19 saw just 0.26" of rain fall in the city, making it the longest two-month winter dry period in the city since records began in 1850, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. More rain is expected Friday through Saturday.

The long-range forecast
A major atmospheric pattern shift is responsible for the big storm in the Western U.S. The ridge of high pressure that brought Northern California its driest two-month winter period on record Nov 20 - Jan 19 has retreated to the northwest towards Alaska, allowing the subtropical jet stream to dive underneath the ridge and bring a plume of moisture called an "atmospheric river" to the coast. This shift was possible thanks to a weakening of a pressure pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). During December and the first half of January, the AO took on its second most extreme configuration on record. The pressure difference between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low reached its most extreme value since records began in 1865, keeping the winds of the jets stream flowing very rapidly. This pattern bottled the jet stream far to the north in Canada, and prevented cold Arctic air from spilling southwards into the U.S . The combination of a near record-strength AO and a borderline weak/moderate La Ninña event in the Eastern Pacific combined to keep a powerful ridge in place over the Western U.S., deflecting all the winter storms into Canada and Southern Alaska. The AO index has become much less extreme over the past two weeks, though, and is now close to average strength. This has allowed the polar jet stream to sag southwards from Canada into the northern U.S., giving the northern tier of states their first real sustained winter-like weather of the season this week (it's about time!) However, the polar jet is expected to remain far enough north so that no major snow storms will occur in the U.S. during the remainder of January--except perhaps in the Pacific Northwest. It's likely that the lack of storms will make January 2012 one of the top five driest January months on record. This month is also likely to be a top-ten warmest January, but won't be able to challenge January of 2006 for the top spot. That January was an incredible 8.5°F above average in the contiguous U.S., and so far, we are running about 4 - 5°F above average. The AO index is predicted to remain near average or potentially change signs and go negative by the beginning of February, which would allow cold air to spill southwards into the U.S. bringing more typical winter-like weather.

It's too early to say what type of winter weather February might bring, but it might be instructive to look at the last time we had winter like this year's. Like the winter of 2011 - 2012, the winter of 2006 - 2007 started out exceptionally warm, with the AO index reaching its all-time most extreme positive value on record during December and early January. New York City hit 72°F on January 6, 2007, the city's all-time warmest January day. The rest of January 2007 saw a gradual lessening of the extreme AO pattern, much like we are seeing this year, and the AO returned to normal in February 2007. That month was a classic winter month, ranking as the 34th coldest February on record, with several notable snow storms.

Auroras possible this weekend
From spaceweather.com: Active sunspot 1401 erupted Jan. 19th, for more than an hour around 16:00 UT. The long-duration blast produced an M3-class solar flare and a Coronal Mass Ejection that appears to be heading toward Earth. Forecasters say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives during the late hours of Saturday, Jan. 21st. High-latitude (and possibly middle-latitude) sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post titled, The Pacific Northwest’s Greatest Storm: The ‘Storm King’ of January 1880.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Not Good... (catilac)
...with high winds and extreme dry conditions. Fire crews from Reno and Carson City are battling a brush fire burning from 300 to 400 acres is threatening homes in the Washoe City area, centered at 485 Washoe Drive. Door-to-door evacuations are underway. The Reno-Sparks Livestock Events Center is acting as an evacuation center for horses, as a result of the Washoe Drive Fire.
Not Good...
Christmas Tree Down (RenoSoHill)
I guess we were too slow so Mother Nature took it down for us. Winds approaching 100 mph - brushed our house - no damage - missed the truck by 3 feet. $20 porch light destroyed!
Christmas Tree Down
Mother Ship (RenoSoHill)
Another great cloud watching day as the storm approaches
Mother Ship
Snow in Federal Way (hniyer)
Snow clings heavily on trees in the town of Federal Way after the first snow storm of the winter dumped 6 inches of snow and turned the world white.
Snow in Federal Way
Bit of snow! (NicholasLee)
Measured exactly 1 foot of snow right before I shot this picture but its still snowing steadily so that now there's 16 inches of snow, with no signs of stopping! I love it!
Bit of snow!

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't know what it is but what happened to Funso? Last I checked Funso was nice and healthy. Land start affecting it again?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
301. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


not at his best looking right now, but still 954 hPa cyclone.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46133
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Anyone have a good sat pic of Funso?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32504
Anyone have a good sat pic of Funso?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
298. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F
9:00 AM FST January 22 2012
===============================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 06 (1003 hPa) located at 19.0S 179.2W is reported as slow moving. Position FAIR based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery, radar and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature around 28C.

Convection remains persistent near the system over the past 24 hours. Organization has not improved much in the last 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends to 700 HPA. TD06F lies along the south pacific convergence zone, just south of 250 HPA ridge axis and east of upper trough in a low sheared environment.

Global models have picked the system and slowly move it south southeast without much intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46133
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

You must have not played Evony for a year (laughs); back when I played that game, that's how everybody spoke. I remember a few guys who didn't say anything right (laughs again).

:P


man...you all seem like ur fom ay diffrnt countree talkin lika dat. LOL
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Quoting 1911maker:


from history, November 29, 2006
http://www.nysun.com/national/gingrich-free-speec h-should-be-curtailed-to-fight/44302/Link
Gingrich: Free Speech Should Be Curtailed To Fight Terrorism

And for balance:
http://www.theuniversitystandard.com/index.php?It emid=30&id=92&option=com_content&task= viewLink

.........I would recommend this book to anyone looking for a quick and easy read, simply explaining where America should be headed in the future.

One of my favorite points Gingrich makes in his book is that it is “Freedom of Religion, Not freedom from Religion.”
..............


Newt carries enough baggage that he needs a freight car to follow him where ever he goes. Still, he makes some valid points. The negatives and positives must be added together. Personally, I think his ideas are all over the map and I cannot determine his true location. In the long run, I think Newt is all about Newt but, that is just me. You have to decide this for yourself.
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5 killed by first tropical storm to hit southern Mozambique since 1984
Posted on January 21, 2012
January 21, 2012 – MOZAMBIQUE – Five people died and thousands were affected in the first tropical storm to hit southern Mozambique since 1984, an official said Thursday. Tropical Storm Dando hit the southern African country from Sunday to Tuesday with gusts of up to 120 kilometers (75 miles) per hour and rainfall of over 200 millimeters (7.8 inches). It has since dissipated, leaving behind destruction and flooding. “In total the deaths amounted to five people,” said Dulce Chilundo, head of the National Emergency Operations Centre. Three people died in Gaza province and two in neighboring Maputo province. “Three people were electrocuted, one person died when a tree fell on their house. Another was swept away when they tried to cross a river,” Chilundo told AFP. In Gaza, Dando flooded 3,766 houses, while 247 were inundated in the capital Maputo. In three southern provinces 287 classrooms were left without rooftops. “We are also warning those in flood-prone areas to leave these places in order to avert the repeat of the cataclysmic scenario of 2000,” Chilundo said. Twelve years ago 700 people died and half a million were displaced in the worst floods in the impoverished country’s history. Heavy rains this week have pounded the northern part of neighboring South Africa, causing a down flow into Mozambique that pushed the Komati, Magude and Goba rivers above alert levels, according to the National Water Directorate. Since Tuesday Mozambique’s southern dam Massingir has pushed discharges from 25 cubic meters per second to 5,200 cubic meters per second on Thursday. –Terra Earth
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting SPLbeater:


You must have not played evony for a year lol...back when i played that game, thats how eerybody spoke. I remembera few gys hoo didnt say 1 ting rite lol

You must have not played Evony for a year (laughs); back when I played that game, that's how everybody spoke. I remember a few guys who didn't say anything right (laughs again).

:P
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The GFS shows the negative tilt in 42 hours...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why did* it get* quiet all of a sudden, is everyone* eating dinner?

:)


You must have not played evony for a year lol...back when i played that game, thats how eerybody spoke. I remembera few gys hoo didnt say 1 ting rite lol
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


Well, for a smart man he certainly says and does some incredibly idiotic things.

He shouldn't be president, given his rather...interesting past. But people seem to have very short memories. After the Bush years, it wouldn't surprise me if he did win the presidency.


from history, November 29, 2006
http://www.nysun.com/national/gingrich-free-speec h-should-be-curtailed-to-fight/44302/Link
Gingrich: Free Speech Should Be Curtailed To Fight Terrorism

And for balance:
http://www.theuniversitystandard.com/index.php?It emid=30&id=92&option=com_content&task=viewLink

.........I would recommend this book to anyone looking for a quick and easy read, simply explaining where America should be headed in the future.

One of my favorite points Gingrich makes in his book is that it is “Freedom of Religion, Not freedom from Religion.”
..............
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:


ah, lol. Have fun
Yeah, We may be having lots of fun Considering what is evolving on the models..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Well, for a smart man he certainly says and does some incredibly idiotic things.

He shouldn't be president, given his rather...interesting past. But people seem to have very short memories. After the Bush years, it wouldn't surprise me if he did win the presidency.
I dont know how old you are, but our government has undergone changes, and not all of them good. I will stick to weather here, but if you want to W.U.mail me on the subject, I will be nothing short of honest and direct.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
Quoting SPLbeater:
why it git quiet all of a sudden is every1 eating dinner?

Why did* it get* quiet all of a sudden, is everyone* eating dinner?

:)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32504
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Weather was fabulous in San Juan today.

wha-? I don't even...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32504
why it git quiet all of a sudden is every1 eating dinner?
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Quoting hydrus:
I am in Middle TN with my parents...It has not been pleasant here at all.


ah, lol. Have fun
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Quoting hydrus:
Newt Gingrich is a smart man, but he will never be president...jmo....He holds a PH.D, I wonder why they never call him Dr.Gingrich.?


Well, for a smart man he certainly says and does some incredibly idiotic things.

He shouldn't be president, given his rather...interesting past. But people seem to have very short memories. After the Bush years, it wouldn't surprise me if he did win the presidency.
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Quoting SPLbeater:


hmm...Why you would want to give up S FL...lol

Not enjoying the perfect mid-70's?
I am in Middle TN with my parents...It has not been pleasant here at all.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
Quoting hydrus:
I,ll trade you. Your next two days for my next two days...Deal?


hmm...Why you would want to give up S FL...lol

Not enjoying the perfect mid-70's?
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281. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
22:00 PM RET January 21 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (954 hPa) located at 18.2S 37.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as east southeast at 2 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/5.0/W1.0/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
20 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
35 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 18.4S 38.3E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 18.8S 39.0E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 20.7S 39.3E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 22.3S 37.9E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

Cloud pattern has shown sharp signs of weakening of Funso during the past six hours with a warming central overcast. According to the last animated pictures Funso should move slowly southeastward now and the curving band pattern is improving. It is difficult to locate the center precisely.

Funso should track slowly southeastward under the steering influence of the near equatorial mid-tropospheric ridge existing north of the system within the next 36 hours. With restart of movement, system intensity should remain close to the intense cyclone stage with warmer water and upper level conditions remaining good.

On Monday 23, the near equatorial ridge should build to the east and to the south-east of the system and will result on a poleward motion for the system. The re-curve is more or less rapid by different models. At the end of the forecast period (day 4 and day 5), most of the numerical guidance suggest a westward track that should bring the system toward the Mozambican coasts between Beira and Inhambane.

An alternate scenario, suggested by the ECMWF ensemble forecast, could be a weaker than expected mid level ridge located to the south-east of the system and consequently a continuing poleward track at long range that will remain oversea.

ECMWF suggest that system will intensify again between Monday and Wednesday with high ocean heat content.

Inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa island and the southwestern coasts of Madagascar) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 1:00 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46133
Cyclone Funso down to 90 knots, forecast to peak at 115kts...Link
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Quoting Thrawst:


You don't know how lucky you were :P
basically all of eastern NC is covered in red dots, except for one spot in the extreme SE North Carolina area.

I'm assuming you live in that little area? :P

Yes :D
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32504
Quoting SPLbeater:
Monday looks to be the next time for some weather. NWS gives 50% chance of precipitation for Monday. Here description:

Monday: A chance of rain or drizzle before 9am, then a chance of showers after 9am. Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy with a high near 61. South wind between 5 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

------------------------------------------------- -----------

Sounds..boring lol
I,ll trade you. Your next two days for my next two days...Deal?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There were definitely a lot more...139 in fact.



I happen to live in that area in SE North Carolina where all the tornadoes seem to "go around" my location.


You don't know how lucky you were :P
basically all of eastern NC is covered in red dots, except for one spot in the extreme SE North Carolina area.

I'm assuming you live in that little area? :P
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Monday looks to be the next time for some weather. NWS gives 50% chance of precipitation for Monday. Here description:

Monday: A chance of rain or drizzle before 9am, then a chance of showers after 9am. Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy with a high near 61. South wind between 5 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

------------------------------------------------- -----------

Sounds..boring lol
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So the rain is about over....What next
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Weather was fabulous in San Juan today.


its drizzling and 34 degrees here... stop bragging
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Weather was fabulous in San Juan today.
I look at that and get homesick..I am from South FL.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
Quoting Ameister12:
It's so beautiful outside with everything completely iced. I'll get pictures up soon.

Weather was fabulous in San Juan today.
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Quoting bappit:

Here's how the Houston-Galveston forecast discussion advertises this next event.

CHANGES BEGIN ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE RETURN IS ROBUST WITH PW VALUES REACHING 1.40 INCHES BY AFTERNOON. DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH A STRONG VORT LOBE SHOULD GIVE THE REGION A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT AND PW VALUES RISE TO 1.70 INCHES. DYNAMICS LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM HELICITIES ARE PROGGED TO EXCEED 200 AND THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40 KNOTS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TEXAS WED MORNING AND THIS FEATURE WILL ELONGATE INTO WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. TRAINING OF STORMS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY SO FEEL HEAVY RAIN IS A REAL THREAT. THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS TEXAS THURS/FRI KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING ON SATURDAY.
Good afternoon Bap. I was talkin about tomorrow and Monday, and the severe threat. I saw the system you are referring to on the last model runs.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
It's so beautiful outside with everything completely iced. I'll get pictures up soon.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5070
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
your state could be that small high risk zone from central tenn. eastward for at least a 6 to 8 hr travel time period
We still have alot of visible damage around here, and all over the plateau..My place is starting to look bad because of all the tree damage. I have lost two tree,s to lightening, Weeping Cherry and a huge Poplar, three Maples and two Pepper tree,s to high winds. We have one giant Poplar left, and it has suffered extensive damage, not sure if it will pull through or not. Had roof damage on both the garage and house..The past four years here have been rough..I am getting tired of cleaning up, and am not looking forward to this next system.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There were definitely a lot more...139 in fact.



I happen to live in that area in SE North Carolina where all the tornadoes seem to "go around" my location.


I was reffering to confirmed NC tornado numbers(28). Is funny how there is that 1 clear spot around Wilmington lol...Cape Fear curse xD
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Quoting SPLbeater:


There was a high risk on April 16th for central and eastern NC 2011....and got 25 tornadoes out of it. If i had only knew of the SPC then...

There were definitely a lot more...139 in fact.



I happen to live in that area in SE North Carolina where all the tornadoes seem to "go around" my location.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32504
Quoting SPLbeater:


There was a high risk on April 16th for central and eastern NC 2011....and got 25 tornadoes out of it. If i had only knew of the SPC then...


I could have warned the 30 some people at the church 'yard sale' and suggested a different day.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

While tomorrow will definitely be a favorable day for Severe Weather and Tornadoes, it definitely will not warrant a High risk. Those are meant for extremely big severe weather outbreaks.

There was a moderate risk on the day of the Joplin, MO tornado.


There was a high risk on April 16th for central and eastern NC 2011....and got 25 tornadoes out of it. If i had only knew of the SPC then...
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There is likely a tornado, or at least a very pronounced funnel cloud, on/near the ground with this supercell.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32504
Uh-oh, look what we got here. A hook echo.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32504
Quoting hydrus:
This next system has me concerned. It will be negatively tilted, moisture return will be substantial and the jet runnin at 100 knots or so...I think the jet is underdone...

Here's how the Houston-Galveston forecast discussion advertises this next event.

CHANGES BEGIN ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE RETURN IS ROBUST WITH PW VALUES REACHING 1.40 INCHES BY AFTERNOON. DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH A STRONG VORT LOBE SHOULD GIVE THE REGION A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT AND PW VALUES RISE TO 1.70 INCHES. DYNAMICS LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM HELICITIES ARE PROGGED TO EXCEED 200 AND THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40 KNOTS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TEXAS WED MORNING AND THIS FEATURE WILL ELONGATE INTO WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. TRAINING OF STORMS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY SO FEEL HEAVY RAIN IS A REAL THREAT. THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS TEXAS THURS/FRI KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING ON SATURDAY.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6089
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
your state could be that small high risk zone from central tenn. eastward for at least a 6 to 8 hr travel time period
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there could depending on how everything comes together be a very small high risk zone by tomorrow afternoon or at the lunch time update

While tomorrow will definitely be a favorable day for Severe Weather and Tornadoes, it definitely will not warrant a High risk. Those are meant for extremely big severe weather outbreaks.

There was a moderate risk on the day of the Joplin, MO tornado.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32504
Quoting hydrus:
We had a decent storm last night here in Middle TN. Inch and a half rain, a few 40+ gusts and a lot of lightening...This next system has me concerned. It will be negatively tilted, moisture return will be substantial and the jet runnin at 100 knots or so...I think the jet is underdone...
your state could be that small high risk zone from central tenn. eastward for at least a 6 to 8 hr travel time period
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Quoting Ameister12:
Why is there still a tornado warning up for Jefferson and Washington County, GA? I see no rotation at all.

I don't know, I see zero rotation.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32504
Quoting HurrikanEB:


On occasion they are visible in the deep south, but not this one. This one will only be visible down through extreme northern pennsylvania.

Link

The green line along the bottom represents its southern most visible limit and where it would occur just above the horizon. Personally i've only seen it once in new york. Florida ones are pretty rare but who knows... we're entering an active phase of the sun, so maybe you'll get lucky within the next few years :)
oh ok ty for the reply, maybe someday i'll be able to see something like that
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Why is there still a tornado warning up for Jefferson and Washington County, GA? I see no rotation at all.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5070
there could depending on how everything comes together be a very small high risk zone by tomorrow afternoon or at the lunch time update
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Yeah, just saw that, south of Butler, Ga.

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First real tornado signature of the day in Macon County, Georgia. Note the TVS.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32504
Quoting Ameister12:
Tomorrow is going to be the first significant severe weather outbreak of an already above normal season of tornadoes and severe weather. We should watch out for hail, very damaging winds, and tornadoes, possibly a few violent tornadoes.
yes weather channel is really telling people to be aware of that system tomorrow, a replay, maybe worse than today, gee alot of tornado warnings today, some places GolfBall sized hail? gee those really ruin a car
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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