Flooding, heavy snow, ice storm, and fires hit the Western U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:39 PM GMT on January 20, 2012

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A state of emergency has been declared in Oregon and Washington, where a powerful winter storm brought deadly floods, heavy snows of up to 4 feet, a severe ice storm, and damaging winds Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains of 3 - 8 inches have fallen over a wide swath of Western Oregon since Monday, causing major to record flooding on multiple rivers and creeks. In Albany, Oregon, a family of four drove out of a supermarket parking lot and into a flooded Perwinkle Creek Wednesday night, and were swept away. Two people were rescued, but a 20-month-old boy and his mother drowned. The Marys River in Philomath rose to its highest flood on record yesterday, and will remain at major flood stage today before gradually receding tonight. The rains have tapered off over much of the region today, but renewed rains are expected later today and intermittently into early next week. The storm also brought strong winds to Reno, Nevada, fanning a brush fire that tore through the Reno area, destroying more than 20 homes and forcing thousands to evacuate. Reno experienced sustained winds of 44 mph, gusting to 70 mph, during the afternoon Thursday. The city didn't get any precipitation, and has received just 0.03" of precipitation this year. That fell on Monday, breaking a 56-day streak with no precipitation--the longest wintertime dry streak in city history. Strong winds gusting to 55 mph are expected during the day today, keeping the fire danger high, but heavy rain is expected tonight, which should ease the fire danger. The storm also brought a significant freezing rain event to northern Oregon and Western Washington yesterday, and up to an inch of ice accumulated in some areas, contributing to power outages that affected at least 275,000 people.


Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 7 pm EST Thursday, January 19, of the West Coast winter storm. A second storm, now approaching the coast, can be seen at the left of the image. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Some select snow amounts between 2 pm PST Monday January 16, and 1am PST Friday January 20, as compiled in the latest NOAA/NCEP/HPC Storm Summary:

...CALIFORNIA...
COVINGTON MILL 23.5
WEAVERVILLE 16.0
JUNCTION CITY 12.0

...IDAHO...
KETCHUM 22 NW 38.5
STANLEY 28 NE 32.9
BURLEY 30 SW 22.2

...MONTANA...
HERON 15.3
MISSOULA 15.0
COPPER CAMP 13.0
MANY GLACIER 13.0
HELENA 12.0

...OREGON...
MT. HOOD MEADOWS 50.0
TIMBERLANE 45.0
BEAR GRASS 32.0

...UTAH...
ALTA 16.0 9662 FT
SNOWBIRD 11.0 8100 FT
PARK CITY JUPITER PEAK 5.0

...WASHINGTON...
JUNE LAKE 31.0
SURPRISE LAKE 30.0
LONE PINE 25.0
OLYMPIA 25.0
TACOMA 11.1
SPOKANE 7.7
SEATTLE 7.1

...WYOMING...
OVANDO 24.0
JACKSON 16.2
AFTON 12.0
SOUTH ENTRANCE YELLOWSTONE 11.0

And some select rainfall amounts from the same time period:

...CALIFORNIA...
GASQUET 9.80
CRESCENT CITY/MC NAMARA FIELD 5.87
ARCATA AIRPORT 3.63
EUREKA 3.23

...OREGON...
SWISS HOME 15.50
PORT ORFORD 5 E 11.47
FALLS CITY 10.20
SILVERTON 9 SE 8.83
SALEM/MCNARY FIELD 6.82
PHILOMATH 5 SW 6.68
CAVE JUNCTION 2 N 6.25
N MYRTLE POINT 6.10
CORVALLIS MUNI ARPT 5.98
BROOKINGS 5 NNW 5.50
PORTLAND INTL ARPT 1.75


Figure 2. The Marys River in Philomath, Oregon crested at its highest flood height on record Thursday, and remains at major flood level today. Image credit: NOAA.

The short-term forecast
The storm door will remain open for California and the Pacific Northwest through the weekend and into mid-week, as two more moisture-laden storm systems pound the region. By the time the active weather pattern calms down by mid-week, rainfall totals of 10 - 20 inches are expected along the Oregon coast. Snowfall totals of 4 - 6 feet are likely in the Cascade Mountains of Washington and Oregon, in the Northern Sierra and Shasta/Siskiyou Mountains in California, in the Northern Wasatch and Uinta Ranges of Utah, and in the Northern Rockies from far eastern Idaho/Western Wyoming through Central and Northern Idaho, Northwestern Montana, and Northeastern Oregon. Damaging strong winds will affect the coast from Northern California to Northern Washington during the weekend and into early next week, as well.

Record dry spell ends for California and Nevada
In San Francisco, the first significant rains since November 20 fell yesterday, a modest 0.08". The two-month period November 20 - January 19 saw just 0.26" of rain fall in the city, making it the longest two-month winter dry period in the city since records began in 1850, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. More rain is expected Friday through Saturday.

The long-range forecast
A major atmospheric pattern shift is responsible for the big storm in the Western U.S. The ridge of high pressure that brought Northern California its driest two-month winter period on record Nov 20 - Jan 19 has retreated to the northwest towards Alaska, allowing the subtropical jet stream to dive underneath the ridge and bring a plume of moisture called an "atmospheric river" to the coast. This shift was possible thanks to a weakening of a pressure pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). During December and the first half of January, the AO took on its second most extreme configuration on record. The pressure difference between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low reached its most extreme value since records began in 1865, keeping the winds of the jets stream flowing very rapidly. This pattern bottled the jet stream far to the north in Canada, and prevented cold Arctic air from spilling southwards into the U.S . The combination of a near record-strength AO and a borderline weak/moderate La Ninña event in the Eastern Pacific combined to keep a powerful ridge in place over the Western U.S., deflecting all the winter storms into Canada and Southern Alaska. The AO index has become much less extreme over the past two weeks, though, and is now close to average strength. This has allowed the polar jet stream to sag southwards from Canada into the northern U.S., giving the northern tier of states their first real sustained winter-like weather of the season this week (it's about time!) However, the polar jet is expected to remain far enough north so that no major snow storms will occur in the U.S. during the remainder of January--except perhaps in the Pacific Northwest. It's likely that the lack of storms will make January 2012 one of the top five driest January months on record. This month is also likely to be a top-ten warmest January, but won't be able to challenge January of 2006 for the top spot. That January was an incredible 8.5°F above average in the contiguous U.S., and so far, we are running about 4 - 5°F above average. The AO index is predicted to remain near average or potentially change signs and go negative by the beginning of February, which would allow cold air to spill southwards into the U.S. bringing more typical winter-like weather.

It's too early to say what type of winter weather February might bring, but it might be instructive to look at the last time we had winter like this year's. Like the winter of 2011 - 2012, the winter of 2006 - 2007 started out exceptionally warm, with the AO index reaching its all-time most extreme positive value on record during December and early January. New York City hit 72°F on January 6, 2007, the city's all-time warmest January day. The rest of January 2007 saw a gradual lessening of the extreme AO pattern, much like we are seeing this year, and the AO returned to normal in February 2007. That month was a classic winter month, ranking as the 34th coldest February on record, with several notable snow storms.

Auroras possible this weekend
From spaceweather.com: Active sunspot 1401 erupted Jan. 19th, for more than an hour around 16:00 UT. The long-duration blast produced an M3-class solar flare and a Coronal Mass Ejection that appears to be heading toward Earth. Forecasters say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives during the late hours of Saturday, Jan. 21st. High-latitude (and possibly middle-latitude) sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post titled, The Pacific Northwest’s Greatest Storm: The ‘Storm King’ of January 1880.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Not Good... (catilac)
...with high winds and extreme dry conditions. Fire crews from Reno and Carson City are battling a brush fire burning from 300 to 400 acres is threatening homes in the Washoe City area, centered at 485 Washoe Drive. Door-to-door evacuations are underway. The Reno-Sparks Livestock Events Center is acting as an evacuation center for horses, as a result of the Washoe Drive Fire.
Not Good...
Christmas Tree Down (RenoSoHill)
I guess we were too slow so Mother Nature took it down for us. Winds approaching 100 mph - brushed our house - no damage - missed the truck by 3 feet. $20 porch light destroyed!
Christmas Tree Down
Mother Ship (RenoSoHill)
Another great cloud watching day as the storm approaches
Mother Ship
Snow in Federal Way (hniyer)
Snow clings heavily on trees in the town of Federal Way after the first snow storm of the winter dumped 6 inches of snow and turned the world white.
Snow in Federal Way
Bit of snow! (NicholasLee)
Measured exactly 1 foot of snow right before I shot this picture but its still snowing steadily so that now there's 16 inches of snow, with no signs of stopping! I love it!
Bit of snow!

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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Hi washingtonian! How did you do with the snow and ice around your way? I had 1.6 inches snow and 0.09 inches ice at my PWS..... It was a pain in the butt to shovel.
I was glad to see some of that good ol' white powder on the ground again.The ice has been tricky though.Some sidewalks have been untreated and i had to watch my step carefully.Kids didn't care what it was.Theuy just wanted to get out their and have some fun XD.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16828
Quoting Neapolitan:

I was gonna ask why you didn't include Fox on your list, but then I realized that you'd limited it to actual news outlets. My bad...


I agree, I almost never watch FOX or their affiliates, because they are just...... incredibly ridiculous and exaggerate everything.
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Dutch teenager Laura Dekker has sailed into harbour on the Caribbean island of St Maarten - becoming the youngest sailor to complete a solo circumnavigation of the world.

Link

I only wish I could do something like that :/
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Yall's hero is gonna be a 1 termer.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
Cyclone Funso is teasing Mozambique...
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Quoting pottery:

Kind of disheartening when the choice comes down to between a Newt and a Mitt, isn't it?

:):))
or a bummer
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Unreal.....
very real, times call for someone to speak true
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



And leftists...
As is MSNBC
NBC
ABC
CNN and NPR

I was gonna ask why you didn't include Fox on your list, but then I realized that you'd limited it to actual news outlets. My bad...
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Well...judging by this here graph, I would say Georgia had a little bumpy ride today!
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NOLA Long term...


the cold front in south central Louisiana and Mississippi will drift south tonight and reach the southwest Mississippi southeast Louisiana border before becoming stationary overnight. The deep
upper level trough approaching the inter mountain region tonight will move through plains and into the Great Lakes region tomorrow.

This upper level system will push a cold front through
the bi state forecast area Sunday evening and night.
So our best weather day this week will probably be Monday as the polar jet stream splits along the West Coast. Part of the jet stream will move across the southern tier of the United States which will keep
our weather very unsettled especially Wednesday through Friday when a strong upper level low will get cut off in the Texas Big Bend area on Wednesday.
The low will move slowly east by Friday.

Will have to watch this time period carefully since the European and global forecast system (gfs) models have some differences on how fast this cut off low will move across the lower Mississippi Valley area later this week.

So for this forecast have used the GFS for short term and the European model for long term guidance.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Hi washingtonian! How did you do with the snow and ice around your way? I had 1.6 inches snow and 0.09 inches ice at my PWS..... It was a pain in the butt to shovel.


I had something like that last year..was like an inch of snow, then a quarter-inch of ice over top of it. me and the puppy were sliding all over the place lol
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Quoting hydrus:
Texas gettin some again...36 hour national map.

The cool front going through Texas on that 36 hour map will be dry and quiet around here. The big precip starts on Tuesday.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Dang.We pray that he weakens before he gets to land like how the forcast is.


Hi washingtonian! How did you do with the snow and ice around your way? I had 1.6 inches snow and 0.09 inches ice at my PWS..... It was a pain in the butt to shovel.
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And leftists...
As is MSNBC
NBC
ABC
CNN and NPR



...you forgot Vulcan's and Romulan's,..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting yqt1001:


Non-existant for a few days.

Dang.We pray that he weakens before he gets to land like how the forcast is.
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Joe Paterno Dead? Spokesman Denies Reported Death [UPDATED]
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



And leftists...
As is MSNBC
NBC
ABC
CNN and NPR


Better a leftist than a right-wing radical on FOX....

But let's not get started with the political mudslinging....
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


JoePa is not dead.... CBS is just full of morons....



And leftists...
As is MSNBC
NBC
ABC
CNN and NPR
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
Quoting Patrap:
Newt Wins,
Joe passes.

"Novelty" wins out again in 2012, Jan, the Year without a Winter.

Time Wave acceleration



JoePa is not dead.... CBS is just full of morons....
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Quoting Chicklit:

He doesn't mention the right-wing mainstream media? Or are they representing the one percent?


Unreal.....
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Newt Wins,


"Novelty" wins out again in 2012, Jan, the Year without a Winter.

Time Wave acceleration

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting washingtonian115:
Nooooooooooo.I saw the forcast and the little b****rd is suppose to intensify back into cat 4 status.THIS.CAN'T.HAPPEN.Shear/dry air where are you???.


Non-existant for a few days.

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Quoting hydrus:
Wuzup Keep..Any thoughts on the P.O.S system that will produce the severe weather for us the next couple of days?
discrete supercell dev out front of the front with strong frontal storms along the front init. time appears after 6pm with the worst of the storms between 9pm and 3am sunday night into monday morning there could be 3 or more EF3 or greater storms within super cell dev out front of the main line MOD risk to be issued early sunday morning after 1 am est
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

He was, but he should re-strengthen as he moves away from the coast.
Quoting SPLbeater:


JTWC forecasting 115 knots in 48 hours. He isnt done. lol
Nooooooooooo.I saw the forcast and the little b****rd is suppose to intensify back into cat 4 status.THIS.CAN'T.HAPPEN.Shear/dry air where are you???.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16828
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey guys.Is Funso killing himself miserably now?


JTWC forecasting 115 knots in 48 hours. He isnt done. lol
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NWS got low to mid 60's rising through the eastern parts of Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and nid Tennessee. right underneath the southern portion of the 30% risk shade.
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.
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Quoting SPLbeater:


im thinking a big fat squall line with supercells in front!
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A STRONG SPRING LIKE STORM WILL CROSS THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM MOIST AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY COUPLED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT BY THE EVENING HOURS. PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH MAY BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST APPRECIABLE OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE MIDSOUTH FOR 2012. THE BULK OF THE SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR AFTER DARK...THEREFORE IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY IN A SAFE LOCATION TO PROTECT YOURSELF IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. PERSONS ARE URGED TO REVIEW THEIR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLANS NOW AND KNOW WHAT ACTIONS TO TAKE IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20979
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey guys.Is Funso killing himself miserably now?

He was, but he should re-strengthen as he moves away from the coast.
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Hey guys.Is Funso killing himself miserably now?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16828
Quoting SPLbeater:


im thinking a big fat squall line with supercells in front!
The SPC thinks the same..........GIVEN MORE THAN ADEQUATE MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION...A ROBUST WIND
FIELD /HIGHLIGHTED BY 90-100 KT AROUND 500 MB AND 55-65 KT WITHIN
THE LOWEST 1-2 KM/ WILL FAVOR HIGHLY ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH
ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY EVENING...WITH AN
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE EPISODE PLAUSIBLE. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT A MULTI-FACETED STORM MODE SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH
SUNDAY EARLY/MID-EVENING...INCLUDING INITIAL SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF WHAT WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR
QUICK-CLUSTERING/LINEAR EVOLUTION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
ADVANCING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. A PREVALENT QUASI-LINEAR MODE/FAST
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM MS/AL INTO PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY/LOWER
OH VALLEY. AS SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT /IN AN ISOLATED SENSE AT THE
VERY LEAST/ WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF MONDAY.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20979
Texas gettin some again...36 hour national map.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20979
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Newt has a knack for hilighting the leftwing bias of the "mainstream" media like nobody else. It is a good thing to show it so that even the densest among us can see it.

He doesn't mention the right-wing mainstream media? Or are they representing the one percent?
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Quoting hydrus:
Wuzup Keep..Any thoughts on the P.O.S system that will produce the severe weather for us the next couple of days?


im thinking a big fat squall line with supercells in front!
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Quoting hydrus:
That is a mean looking storm headed for the Pacific N.W...As if they have not had enough..



990mb forecast to bomb out at 971 as it nears coast!
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spring-like in north florida today. partly sunny, breezy from the south. low 70's. the red-buds are starting to bloom as well as the yellow jasmine and the azaleas. usually january is our coldest month.
the water in the gulf is chilly, though - around 14C, and most of the big sports fish - reds, trout, etc. - have moved off-shore.
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Only a Fool can construct a Fool's paradise,


Huh, I dint tink da line for Hire would be so Long?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Newt has a knack for hilighting the leftwing bias of the "mainstream" media like nobody else. It is a good thing to show it so that even the densest among us can see it.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
after midnight am est
Wuzup Keep..Any thoughts on the P.O.S system that will produce the severe weather for us the next couple of days?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20979
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
When is the next Day 2 Convective Outlook issued?
Early tomorrow morning ....I think.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
When is the next Day 2 Convective Outlook issued?
after midnight am est
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That is a mean looking storm headed for the Pacific N.W...As if they have not had enough..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20979
308. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
4:00 AM RET January 22 2012
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (952 hPa) located at 17.9S 38.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as southeast at 3 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
20 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 18.3S 38.9E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 18.9S 39.4E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 20.7S 39.5E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 22.8S 38.3E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

Funso is going slowly away from the coast eastward and the interaction of the system with the land is lessening. Convection is restructuring above the center with a small central dense overcast and a small curved band that is wrapping all around the center.

At 24 to 36 hours, Funso is expected to be under the steering influence of the near-equatorial ridge of mid-troposphere and should track slowly east to south-eastward. Then, until 72 hours, a ridge should build east of the system and the track should re-curve south to southwestward. Beyond (day 4 and day 5) numerical weather prediction models diverge about the track. CEP (1200 PM UTC run) forecast a slow westward track. CONW, AVNO, NGPS forecast a track toward the south of the Mozambique channel.

Upper level analysis indicates the system is located beneath the ridge axis. Upper level divergence is good equatorward. Upper level conditions are expected to remain good throughout the forecast period. They are expected to improve beyond day 3 with the building of a second outflow channel poleward.

Funso encounters again high energetic potential sea surface temperature (29C) as it is going away from the coast and it should deepen regularly. At the end of the forecast period, system should weaken again as it will track towards the Mozambique coast.

Inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa island and the southwestern coasts of Madagascar) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 7:00 AM UTC..
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I don't know what it is but what happened to Funso? Last I checked Funso was nice and healthy. Land start affecting it again?


Upwelling probably hurting it now also. It hasn't moved in over 48 hours. Though land is likely the #1 culprit.
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Water falling like rain inside N-reactor

The Yomiuri Shimbun

Tokyo Electric Power Co. on Friday released 30 minutes of video footage taken Thursday inside the containment vessel of the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant's No. 2 reactor, the first such images to be released by the utility.

Drops of water fall like rain in the video, which was shot using an industrial endoscope. The drops were apparently the result of vapor--created by the heat from melted nuclear fuel--that cooled inside the upper part of the reactor containment vessel.

Strong radiation caused scattered white static in the footage, which displayed the severe environment inside the containment vessel, observers said.

The vessel's pipes did not appear to be significantly damaged, but paint had fallen off the inner wall, due possibly to high temperatures following the outbreak of the nuclear crisis.

The endoscope was inserted about two meters into the containment vessel through a hole about seven meters above the bottom of the containment vessel. Visibility was about two meters to three meters.

Melted nuclear fuel is believed to have fallen to the concrete bottom of the containment vessel, but this could not be confirmed.

"Workers can't go into the containment vessel. We need to develop a small robot," said Junichi Matsumoto, acting head of TEPCO's headquarters regarding nuclear plant locations.

Also, the water level inside the reactor was found to be lower than initially estimated. Although TEPCO believed water had collected to a height of 4.5 meters, the examination showed the water height was apparently less than four meters, as the surface of the water was not seen around the iron scaffolding set at a height of four meters.

As one reason why there was less water than TEPCO estimated, the company said the gauge that measures the location of the water's surface did not work accurately.

However, the gauge placed 2.8 meters from the bottom of the vessel indicated a possibility there is water at that level, TEPCO sources said.

"It's quite unlikely nuclear fuel was exposed, as liquid from condensation is dripping down," a TEPCO official said.
(Jan. 21, 2012)

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When is the next Day 2 Convective Outlook issued?
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303. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ETHEL (07-20112012)
4:00 AM RET January 22 2012
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ethel (987 hPa) located at 24.6S 64.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Storm Force Winds
================
30 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 radius from the center extending up to 110 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
80 NM radius from the center in the northern semi-circle extending up to 160 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 27.7S 65.4E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 31.1S 67.0E - 45 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)
48 HRS: 39.9S 81.7E - 40 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================

Convective pattern has destructured during the past 6 hours due to the strengthening vertical wind shear (30kt according to the CIMSS analysis) and the system arriving over cooler sea surface temperature.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in tight agreement to forecast a south southeastward track within the next 24 hours. Beyond, system might merge with the westerly circulation of mid-latitudes with a southeastward re-curving motion and a clear extra-tropicalisation. Strong winds should persist during this extra-tropicalisation.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't know what it is but what happened to Funso? Last I checked Funso was nice and healthy. Land start affecting it again?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.