Flooding, heavy snow, ice storm, and fires hit the Western U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:39 PM GMT on January 20, 2012

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A state of emergency has been declared in Oregon and Washington, where a powerful winter storm brought deadly floods, heavy snows of up to 4 feet, a severe ice storm, and damaging winds Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains of 3 - 8 inches have fallen over a wide swath of Western Oregon since Monday, causing major to record flooding on multiple rivers and creeks. In Albany, Oregon, a family of four drove out of a supermarket parking lot and into a flooded Perwinkle Creek Wednesday night, and were swept away. Two people were rescued, but a 20-month-old boy and his mother drowned. The Marys River in Philomath rose to its highest flood on record yesterday, and will remain at major flood stage today before gradually receding tonight. The rains have tapered off over much of the region today, but renewed rains are expected later today and intermittently into early next week. The storm also brought strong winds to Reno, Nevada, fanning a brush fire that tore through the Reno area, destroying more than 20 homes and forcing thousands to evacuate. Reno experienced sustained winds of 44 mph, gusting to 70 mph, during the afternoon Thursday. The city didn't get any precipitation, and has received just 0.03" of precipitation this year. That fell on Monday, breaking a 56-day streak with no precipitation--the longest wintertime dry streak in city history. Strong winds gusting to 55 mph are expected during the day today, keeping the fire danger high, but heavy rain is expected tonight, which should ease the fire danger. The storm also brought a significant freezing rain event to northern Oregon and Western Washington yesterday, and up to an inch of ice accumulated in some areas, contributing to power outages that affected at least 275,000 people.


Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 7 pm EST Thursday, January 19, of the West Coast winter storm. A second storm, now approaching the coast, can be seen at the left of the image. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Some select snow amounts between 2 pm PST Monday January 16, and 1am PST Friday January 20, as compiled in the latest NOAA/NCEP/HPC Storm Summary:

...CALIFORNIA...
COVINGTON MILL 23.5
WEAVERVILLE 16.0
JUNCTION CITY 12.0

...IDAHO...
KETCHUM 22 NW 38.5
STANLEY 28 NE 32.9
BURLEY 30 SW 22.2

...MONTANA...
HERON 15.3
MISSOULA 15.0
COPPER CAMP 13.0
MANY GLACIER 13.0
HELENA 12.0

...OREGON...
MT. HOOD MEADOWS 50.0
TIMBERLANE 45.0
BEAR GRASS 32.0

...UTAH...
ALTA 16.0 9662 FT
SNOWBIRD 11.0 8100 FT
PARK CITY JUPITER PEAK 5.0

...WASHINGTON...
JUNE LAKE 31.0
SURPRISE LAKE 30.0
LONE PINE 25.0
OLYMPIA 25.0
TACOMA 11.1
SPOKANE 7.7
SEATTLE 7.1

...WYOMING...
OVANDO 24.0
JACKSON 16.2
AFTON 12.0
SOUTH ENTRANCE YELLOWSTONE 11.0

And some select rainfall amounts from the same time period:

...CALIFORNIA...
GASQUET 9.80
CRESCENT CITY/MC NAMARA FIELD 5.87
ARCATA AIRPORT 3.63
EUREKA 3.23

...OREGON...
SWISS HOME 15.50
PORT ORFORD 5 E 11.47
FALLS CITY 10.20
SILVERTON 9 SE 8.83
SALEM/MCNARY FIELD 6.82
PHILOMATH 5 SW 6.68
CAVE JUNCTION 2 N 6.25
N MYRTLE POINT 6.10
CORVALLIS MUNI ARPT 5.98
BROOKINGS 5 NNW 5.50
PORTLAND INTL ARPT 1.75


Figure 2. The Marys River in Philomath, Oregon crested at its highest flood height on record Thursday, and remains at major flood level today. Image credit: NOAA.

The short-term forecast
The storm door will remain open for California and the Pacific Northwest through the weekend and into mid-week, as two more moisture-laden storm systems pound the region. By the time the active weather pattern calms down by mid-week, rainfall totals of 10 - 20 inches are expected along the Oregon coast. Snowfall totals of 4 - 6 feet are likely in the Cascade Mountains of Washington and Oregon, in the Northern Sierra and Shasta/Siskiyou Mountains in California, in the Northern Wasatch and Uinta Ranges of Utah, and in the Northern Rockies from far eastern Idaho/Western Wyoming through Central and Northern Idaho, Northwestern Montana, and Northeastern Oregon. Damaging strong winds will affect the coast from Northern California to Northern Washington during the weekend and into early next week, as well.

Record dry spell ends for California and Nevada
In San Francisco, the first significant rains since November 20 fell yesterday, a modest 0.08". The two-month period November 20 - January 19 saw just 0.26" of rain fall in the city, making it the longest two-month winter dry period in the city since records began in 1850, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. More rain is expected Friday through Saturday.

The long-range forecast
A major atmospheric pattern shift is responsible for the big storm in the Western U.S. The ridge of high pressure that brought Northern California its driest two-month winter period on record Nov 20 - Jan 19 has retreated to the northwest towards Alaska, allowing the subtropical jet stream to dive underneath the ridge and bring a plume of moisture called an "atmospheric river" to the coast. This shift was possible thanks to a weakening of a pressure pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). During December and the first half of January, the AO took on its second most extreme configuration on record. The pressure difference between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low reached its most extreme value since records began in 1865, keeping the winds of the jets stream flowing very rapidly. This pattern bottled the jet stream far to the north in Canada, and prevented cold Arctic air from spilling southwards into the U.S . The combination of a near record-strength AO and a borderline weak/moderate La Ninña event in the Eastern Pacific combined to keep a powerful ridge in place over the Western U.S., deflecting all the winter storms into Canada and Southern Alaska. The AO index has become much less extreme over the past two weeks, though, and is now close to average strength. This has allowed the polar jet stream to sag southwards from Canada into the northern U.S., giving the northern tier of states their first real sustained winter-like weather of the season this week (it's about time!) However, the polar jet is expected to remain far enough north so that no major snow storms will occur in the U.S. during the remainder of January--except perhaps in the Pacific Northwest. It's likely that the lack of storms will make January 2012 one of the top five driest January months on record. This month is also likely to be a top-ten warmest January, but won't be able to challenge January of 2006 for the top spot. That January was an incredible 8.5°F above average in the contiguous U.S., and so far, we are running about 4 - 5°F above average. The AO index is predicted to remain near average or potentially change signs and go negative by the beginning of February, which would allow cold air to spill southwards into the U.S. bringing more typical winter-like weather.

It's too early to say what type of winter weather February might bring, but it might be instructive to look at the last time we had winter like this year's. Like the winter of 2011 - 2012, the winter of 2006 - 2007 started out exceptionally warm, with the AO index reaching its all-time most extreme positive value on record during December and early January. New York City hit 72°F on January 6, 2007, the city's all-time warmest January day. The rest of January 2007 saw a gradual lessening of the extreme AO pattern, much like we are seeing this year, and the AO returned to normal in February 2007. That month was a classic winter month, ranking as the 34th coldest February on record, with several notable snow storms.

Auroras possible this weekend
From spaceweather.com: Active sunspot 1401 erupted Jan. 19th, for more than an hour around 16:00 UT. The long-duration blast produced an M3-class solar flare and a Coronal Mass Ejection that appears to be heading toward Earth. Forecasters say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives during the late hours of Saturday, Jan. 21st. High-latitude (and possibly middle-latitude) sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post titled, The Pacific Northwest’s Greatest Storm: The ‘Storm King’ of January 1880.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Not Good... (catilac)
...with high winds and extreme dry conditions. Fire crews from Reno and Carson City are battling a brush fire burning from 300 to 400 acres is threatening homes in the Washoe City area, centered at 485 Washoe Drive. Door-to-door evacuations are underway. The Reno-Sparks Livestock Events Center is acting as an evacuation center for horses, as a result of the Washoe Drive Fire.
Not Good...
Christmas Tree Down (RenoSoHill)
I guess we were too slow so Mother Nature took it down for us. Winds approaching 100 mph - brushed our house - no damage - missed the truck by 3 feet. $20 porch light destroyed!
Christmas Tree Down
Mother Ship (RenoSoHill)
Another great cloud watching day as the storm approaches
Mother Ship
Snow in Federal Way (hniyer)
Snow clings heavily on trees in the town of Federal Way after the first snow storm of the winter dumped 6 inches of snow and turned the world white.
Snow in Federal Way
Bit of snow! (NicholasLee)
Measured exactly 1 foot of snow right before I shot this picture but its still snowing steadily so that now there's 16 inches of snow, with no signs of stopping! I love it!
Bit of snow!

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452. SPLbeater
9:00 PM GMT on January 22, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Exaggeration with tropical systems? lolno.


They had Jim Cantore in florida 2010 with TS Bonnie...40mph windspeeds, give me a break..and that was all they talked about, a blob of convection with a LLC moving over florida all day..
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
451. yqt1001
8:55 PM GMT on January 22, 2012
Funso is at it again.

Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
Quoting SPLbeater:


I quit watching TWC because of the exaggeration they do with tropical systems. So i dont notice anything they say, lol

Exaggeration with tropical systems? lolno.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32041
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

As Dr. Greg Forbes said on The Weather Channel a little while ago, this will be one of the events that goes from nothing to everything.


I quit watching TWC because of the exaggeration they do with tropical systems. So i dont notice anything they say, lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32041
My avatar shout's...I'M SEXY AND I KNOW IT.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Quoting SPLbeater:
Man...i see a few potent storms in Missisippi, maybe 1 in southern AL...other then that, a mass of rain. ???

I bet that the action come 2nite

As Dr. Greg Forbes said on The Weather Channel a little while ago, this will be one of the events that goes from nothing to everything.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32041
Man...i see a few potent storms in Missisippi, maybe 1 in southern AL...other then that, a mass of rain. ???

I bet that the action come 2nite
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Looks like I'm in for a rough night here in NE LA
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...NRN LA...SRN/ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 222026Z - 222230Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE BY EARLY EVENING NEAR THE
ARKLATEX THEN RACE NEWD TOWARD WRN TN/NWRN MS AFTER DARK. DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. A TORNADO WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 00Z.

LEADING EDGE OF WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH IS ADVANCING ACROSS ERN
OK/NERN TX AND WILL SOON OVERSPREAD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE...WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SPREAD INTO SRN/ERN
AR...AS NOTED BY SFC DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE UPPER 50S INTO
THE 60S...WHILE A STUBBORN WEDGE OF COOLER AIR HAS YET TO BE
DISPLACED OVER MUCH OF CNTRL/NWRN AR. CURRENT THINKING IS GREATEST
AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO THE S-E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEDGE FRONT AND THIS WILL BE THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

LATEST VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASING BAND OF LOW LEVEL CU ALONG
THE DRY LINE NEAR I-35 OVER NCNTRL TX. THIS IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND IS CERTAINLY INDICATIVE OF STRONGER
FORCING THAT WILL SOON OVERSPREAD THE ARKLATEX. WITH TIME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE ALONG THIS LINE...OR PERHAPS EVEN DEVELOP
WELL AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT WITHIN DEEPER CONFLUENT ZONE NEAR THE
LA BORDER AS EXHIBITED BY SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN FROM NEAR TYR
TO JUST WEST OF SHV. NEEDLESS TO SAY VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

..DARROW.. 01/22/2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32041
www.solarham.com

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2012 Jan 22 1940 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jan 23 0000 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor


CME Impact: The ACE Spacecraft detected a sudden solar wind increase to over 450 km/, followed by a geomagnetic sudden impulse deviation of 31nT, recorded at 06:14 UTC Sunday morning. This indicated the arrival of the expected CME passage. The Kp was just below the G1 Geomagnetic Storm threshold, but has since fallen back to quieter levels. Continue to monitor conditions, as minor storming will still be possible.

SDO video showing a C7.1 solar flare around Sunspot 1401 at 02:57 UTC on Jan 22, 2012.
4 likes, 0 dislikes


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128282
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53838
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So they want to sell more Tamiflu???

Pestilence Watch: It’s back- H1N1 deaths reported in Mexico and Greece


Two die of A(H1N1) swine flu in Mexico: official
Link

Baby Dies of H1N1 Flu in Athens Link
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I have a blog about a new drought affecting the Sahel region in West Africa. The 2012 Cape Verde season may be active or not depending if the drought extends to the summer months.

Link
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Are we "Prepers"? Sure we are.... When we prepare for an arriving Hurricane.... But....


Subculture of Americans prepares for civilization's collapse
By Jim Forsyth Sat Jan 21, 2012 11:44am EST

(Reuters) - When Patty Tegeler looks out the window of her home overlooking the Appalachian Mountains in southwestern Virginia, she sees trouble on the horizon.

"In an instant, anything can happen," she told Reuters. "And I firmly believe that you have to be prepared."

Tegeler is among a growing subculture of Americans who refer to themselves informally as "preppers." Some are driven by a fear of imminent societal collapse, others are worried about terrorism, and many have a vague concern that an escalating series of natural disasters is leading to some type of environmental cataclysm.

They are following in the footsteps of hippies in the 1960s who set up communes to separate themselves from what they saw as a materialistic society, and the survivalists in the 1990s who were hoping to escape the dictates of what they perceived as an increasingly secular and oppressive government.

Preppers, though are, worried about no government.

Tegeler, 57, has turned her home in rural Virginia into a "survival center," complete with a large generator, portable heaters, water tanks, and a two-year supply of freeze-dried food that her sister recently gave her as a birthday present. She says that in case of emergency, she could survive indefinitely in her home. And she thinks that emergency could come soon.

"I think this economy is about to fall apart," she said.

A wide range of vendors market products to preppers, mainly online. They sell everything from water tanks to guns to survival skills.

Conservative talk radio host Glenn Beck seems to preach preppers' message when he tells listeners: "It's never too late to prepare for the end of the world as we know it."

"Unfortunately, given the increasing complexity and fragility of our modern technological society, the chances of a societal collapse are increasing year after year," said author James Wesley Rawles, whose Survival Blog is considered the guiding light of the prepper movement.

A former Army intelligence officer, Rawles has written fiction and non-fiction books on end-of-civilization topics, including "How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It," which is also known as the preppers' Bible.

"We could see a cascade of higher interest rates, margin calls, stock market collapses, bank runs, currency revaluations, mass street protests, and riots," he told Reuters. "The worst-case end result would be a Third World War, mass inflation, currency collapses, and long term power grid failures."

A sense of "suffering and being afraid" is usually at the root of this kind of thinking, according to Cathy Gutierrez, an expert on end-times beliefs at Sweet Briar College in Virginia. Such feelings are not unnatural in a time of economic recession and concerns about a growing national debt, she said.

"With our current dependence on things from the electric grid to the Internet, things that people have absolutely no control over, there is a feeling that a collapse scenario can easily emerge, with a belief that the end is coming, and it is all out of the individual's control," she told Reuters.

She compared the major technological developments of the past decade to the Industrial Revolution of the 1830s and 1840s, which led to the growth of the Millerites, the 19th-Century equivalent of the preppers. Followers of charismatic preacher Joseph Miller, many sold everything and gathered in 1844 for what they believed would be the second coming of Jesus Christ.

Many of today's preppers receive inspiration from the Internet, devouring information posted on websites like that run by attorney Michael T. Snider, who writes The Economic Collapse blog out of his home in northern Idaho.

"Modern preppers are much different from the survivalists of the old days," he said. "You could be living next door to a prepper and never even know it. Many suburbanites are turning spare rooms into food pantries and are going for survival training on the weekends."

Like other preppers, Snider is worried about the end of a functioning U.S. economy. He points out that tens of millions of Americans are on food stamps and that many U.S. children are living in poverty.

"Most people have a gut feeling that something has gone terribly wrong, but that doesn't mean that they understand what is happening," he said. "A lot of Americans sense that a massive economic storm is coming and they want to be prepared for it."

So, assuming there is no collapse of society -- which the preppers call "uncivilization" -- what is the future of the preppers?

Gutierrez said that unlike the Millerites -- or followers of radio preacher Harold Camping, who predicted the world would end last year -- preppers are not setting a date for the coming destruction. The Mayan Calendar predicts doom this December.

"The minute you set a date, you are courting disconfirmation," she said.

Tegeler, who recalls being hit by tornadoes and floods in her southwestern Virginia home, said that none of her "survival center" products will go to waste.

"I think it's silly not to be prepared," she said. "After all, anything can happen."

(Reporting by Jim Forsyth in San Antonio; Editing by Corrie MacLaggan and Greg McCune)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Significant Nor'Easter depicted on the European Computer Model for Saturday/Sunday for the I-95 corridor. A similar solution appears on other forecasting models, so it has some support. For the first time in a few months, I am genuinely excited about the possibility of a huge snowstorm!!!!!
Or a huge rain storm the way this winter has been going.I'll give you cookies If we indeed have a snow storm.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Im going to go rumage around the kitchen for some food. be back SoOoOoOoOon
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting CybrTeddy:


The land of 'post' season.
Oh okay.Thought they got banned.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Quoting washingtonian115:
Anybody know what happened to DontAnnoyMe??,and Gordydunnot?.I havn't seen them in like...ages.


The land of 'post' season.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
Link tO nEw BlOg!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Anyone want to guess when the first watch will be issued?


20:40Z tornado watch for eastern MS and western AL
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485


Significant Nor'Easter depicted on the European Computer Model for Saturday/Sunday for the I-95 corridor. A similar solution appears on other forecasting models, so it has some support. For the first time in a few months, I am genuinely excited about the possibility of a huge snowstorm!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

GOES Composite - Central U.S. Imagery - Rainbow Loop


click image for Loop

click loop to ZOOM


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128282
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Anyone want to guess when the first watch will be issued?

Around 3:00 PM CDT (4:00 PM EDT).
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32041
Make sure one has a safe place to go in the event a Severe Weather/Tornado Warning is issued, or one hear's it coming. Plan now to act later if needed.


Also make sure your Alert NOAA Radio is battery backed up too.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128282
Quoting akailm:
drink more of the msnbc koolaid,as it makes the rest of the nonsense they spew apparent.


Reality has a well known liberal bias.
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Anyone want to guess when the first watch will be issued?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Wrote a blog called growing up in the 80's.Please show some support and take the time to read.It's not a long blog either.It'll take you two minutes tops.Link
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422. Skyepony (Mod)
The Tornado Chasers seem to be concentrating in NE MS.

High here at my house in Melbourne, FL has been 85.5F so far today. I'm glad I didn't plant winter pasture rye this year. It would have all died today.
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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21199
Im going to go write a new post
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Anybody know what happened to DontAnnoyMe??,and Gordydunnot?.I havn't seen them in like...ages.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Quoting yqt1001:


Southern Canada


ah...ok...i was only outside to fill in a hole that my puppy dug. she had mud all over her nose, and her paws lol. there was some yellow clay and standing water where she dug :/ sometimes i think she prefers being dirty over clean lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting SPLbeater:


ouch...where u live at to be dat cold?


Southern Canada
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
Quoting yqt1001:


I didn't wear mittens when it was -26C out (~-5F), so I'm sure you are fine. I did nearly get frostbite though. I also lost the feeling in my hands when I wore light gloves for 4 hours outside in -20C.

I also have gotten frostbite on my ears before.


ouch...where u live at to be dat cold?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting SPLbeater:
My fingers are about twice the size they should be...Do you think i should have worn gloves while its 36?


I didn't wear mittens when it was -26C out (~-5F), so I'm sure you are fine. I did nearly get frostbite though. I also lost the feeling in my hands when I wore light gloves for 4 hours outside in -20C.

I also have gotten frostbite on my ears before.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
My fingers are about twice the size they should be...Do you think i should have worn gloves while its 36?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting Ameister12:
The last big severe weather outbreak in January was on January 10, 2008. That's 4 years! Goes to show how rare January outbreaks can be.
I lost some of me tree,s in that one..some some roof damage.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21199
Quoting Ameister12:
This evening and tonight we will see strong tornadoes, extremely damaging winds, and hail. It sounds like May already, but it's still January! It's already shaping up to be another very terrible year.
This looks very familiar..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21199
Joe Paterno has officially died.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/s tory/2012-01-21/former-penn-state-coach-joe-patern o-dead/52737230/1
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Quoting Ameister12:
The last big severe weather outbreak in January was on January 10, 2008. That's 4 years! Goes to show how rare January outbreaks can be.


So what does 2008 and 2012 (Jan) have in common?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2348
Public Severe Weather Outlook
Print Version
Experimental Multimedia Briefing MP4.
Please note this briefing may be out of date after 1534 UTC on 01/22/2012 and there will be no subsequent updates during the day.
Please send comments or questions to spc.feedback@noaa.gov or using the feedback page.
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 221635
ALZ000-ARZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-T NZ000-230200-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO...AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO...AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

NORTHWEST ALABAMA
EASTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE

SURROUNDING THE GREATEST RISK AREA...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
MICHIGAN...OHIO...AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.

A POWERFUL JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY...FURTHER INTENSIFYING IN THE PROCESS.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE JET STREAM IMPULSE...A STRONG SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS KANSAS TODAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS
MISSOURI AND IOWA TONIGHT...BEFORE REACHING WISCONSIN EARLY MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE LOW...A BROAD CURRENT OF FAST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
USHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.

A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
OVER PARTS OF ILLINOIS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...AND
LOUISIANA AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID
AIR.

AS THE STORMS BUILD AND INTERACT WITH THE JET STREAM WINDS...SOME OF
THEM LIKELY WILL BECOME LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS...POSING A RISK FOR
STRONG TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THE TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT OVER
EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE.
THE STORMS LIKELY WILL EVOLVE INTO AN EXTENSIVE LINE LATER
TONIGHT...EXTENDING THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES THROUGH DAWN MONDAY NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS
TONIGHT.

..MEAD/CORFIDI.. 01/22/2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128282
The last big severe weather outbreak in January was on January 10, 2008. That's 4 years! Goes to show how rare January outbreaks can be.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
On my radar, I've overlayed the Day 1 Convective outlook and the Day 1 Tornado, Hail, and Wind probabilities. Memphis, TN falls right in the middle of everything...not good for a big city like that.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32041
"I don't think the average Floridian knows how lucky they've been over these last few years".I'm quoting Dr Gray /
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Quoting Ameister12:
This evening and tonight we will see strong tornadoes, extremely damaging winds, and hail. It sounds like May already, but it's still January! It's already shaping up to be another very terrible year.


If this is happening now, I wonder what the main severe months of March-June will have in store. I'm almost scared to find out....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53838
This evening and tonight we will see strong tornadoes, extremely damaging winds, and hail. It sounds like May already, but it's still January! It's already shaping up to be another very terrible year.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
City overlay.


(Click to enlarge)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32041

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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