Bill Read to retire as director of the National Hurricane Center

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:28 PM GMT on January 16, 2012

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Bill Read, the director of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) since 2008, announced Saturday that he will be retiring on June 1, ending four and one-half years as the nation's most visible meteorologist. Read took the post of NHC director after Bill Proenza stepped down following a stormy six-month tenure where much of staff revolted against him. In the wake of the turmoil stirred up by Proenza, Read brought stability to the Hurricane Center. Conversations I've had with staff at NHC indicated that Read was an excellent manager of people, and was well-respected among his employees. His management ability, easy-going style, and solid communication skills made Read an excellent choice for director of NHC, and he will be missed. “I will have been in charge just shy of four and a half years on June 1,” Read wrote in a letter to hurricane center staff . “I had no idea I would ever be considered for such an honor. It’s been quite a ride and I’m blessed to hit the exit ramp in my career after working with you all.”

Previously, Read served as director of Houston's National Weather Service office, a post he took in 1992. Read was called in to work at NHC three times between 1992 and 2005 to help out with hurricane emergencies. Prior to his job in Houston, Read served in the U.S. Navy, where his duties included an assignment as an on-board meteorologist with the Hurricane Hunters. He began his career in 1977 with the National Weather Service test and evaluation division in Sterling, VA.


Figure 1. Bill Read at the National Hurricane Center forecast desk. Image credit: NOAA.

National Hurricane Center Directors:
Gordon Dunn, 1965 - 1967
Robert Simpson, 1967 - 1973
Neil Frank, 1973 - 1987
Bob Sheets, 1987 - 1995
Robert Burpee, 1995 - 1997
Jerry Jarrell, 1998 - 2000
Max Mayfield, 2000 - 2007
Bill Proenza, January - July, 2007
Ed Rappaport (interim), July 2007 - January 2008
Bill Read, 2008 - 2012

Who will the next director of NHC be?
The retirement of Bill Read means that a search for NHC's eleventh director must be complete before hurricane season arrives. While I haven't had time to ask them if they are interested, here are four candidates who would make excellent directors of NHC:

Dr. Ed Rappaport, Deputy Director of NHC since 2000. Dr. Rappaport served as interim director of NHC during the hurricane season of 2007, and did a great job. He did not want to be the permanent director, though, and it is uncertain if would want the position now. In a Q and A interview posted on the NHC web site last year, Dr. Rappaport said, "The responsibilities are immense and, to date, the circumstances have not been right for me to be the director full time. But I will consider it the next time the opportunity arises. For such a critical position, one which has such important responsibilities, great visibility, many challenges and the long periods of travel, everything has to be aligned right within your professional and personal life to make the commitment that is required to do the job well." I have to believe that if he wants the job, the next director of NHC will be Ed Rappaport.

James Franklin, Branch Chief of the NHC Hurricane Specialists Unit. Since 2008, Franklin has been responsible for the quality of hurricane forecasts coming out of NHC, a tough, high-pressure job that he has handled remarkably well. Before arriving at NHC, Mr. Franklin worked as a hurricane research scientist for NOAA's Hurricane Research Division.

Dr. Chris Landsea, NHC Science and Operations Officer since 2005. Between 1995 - 2004, Dr. Landsea worked as a hurricane research scientist for NOAA's Hurricane Research Division. Dr. Landsea has testified in front of Congress several times on the issue of hurricanes and global warming, and has excellent public communication skills.

Dr. Rick Knabb, tropical weather expert for the Weather Channel. Dr. Knabb served as a senior hurricane specialist at NHC from 2005 - 2008, then took a position as deputy director and director of operations of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) and NWS Forecast Office in Honolulu, Hawaii. In 2010, he joined the Weather Channel.

Jeff Masters

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WWIII not far away
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Quoting palmbaywhoo:
In typical fashion, people were ready to point a finger rather then get all the facts....

The "Senator" Not Lit By Arsonist

Fact is that there is more than one way to set a tree on fire, but the probability--not fact--is that no one would go to that much trouble (and accelerants would leave traces--if they looked for them).

A while back kids on occasion would go down to the Mississippi, find a tree out on a sandbar in the river and fling a can of kerosene or whatnot complete with lit fuse up in the branches. Said flinger would then run like hoooeey and enjoy the show with his friends. Ahhh, the light reflecting off the water, some moonshine if you were lucky, and no one really cared.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5998
I predict for us to get atleast 15 Atlantic tropical cyclones this year. My guess is 23.
10 tropical storms
2 tds
10 hurricanes
with 4 of them major hurricanes
AND 1 HYPERCANE! :D
this is with the collapsing la nina and the..well..saying that it's 2012.
I predict about 7 landfalls.
2 hurricanes 2 tropical storms and 1 major hurricane..in the US.
Seem Reasonable?
It's 2012 btw. so...
a hurricane hits ca?
idk.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2365
Quoting palmbaywhoo:
Well like the billions and billions of trees before it know, it just takes a spark, and while the odds were in it's favor, maybe lady luck just ran out.
Someone yesterday said we shouldnt rule out suicide, they may have been right ;)
has no one figured out the connection to Global Warming YET????
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Has there ever been a Strong El Nino during a -PDO Event. Is it impossible to have a Super Nino in a Cold PDO?
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1286
Well like the billions and billions of trees before it know, it just takes a spark, and while the odds were in it's favor, maybe lady luck just ran out.
Someone yesterday said we shouldnt rule out suicide, they may have been right ;)
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 388
Seismic flag on.... No events for the last 2 days in my area....

MAG UTC DATE-TIME y/m/d h:m:s LAT deg LON deg DEPTH km LOCATION
3.8 2012/01/15 23:22:32 18.187 -68.508 99.2 53 km ( 33 mi) SSE of Higuey, Dominican Republic
MAP 2.9 2012/01/15 01:25:24 18.805 -65.291 57.2 55 km ( 34 mi) N of Culebra, PR

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Heavy rain.. mild lightening for the last 10 minutes here West of Nashville... gusts of probably 20 at the most.. not bad.. no hail.. temp in the low 60's..
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Iran: Oil embargo means 'economic suicide' for EU

Published January 17, 2012


TEHRAN, Iran-- Iran's OPEC governor said Tuesday a European Union embargo on Iranian oil would be "economic suicide" for Europe, "




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Quoting palmbaywhoo:
In typical fashion, people were ready to point a finger rather then get all the facts....

The "Senator" Not Lit By Arsonist

Well, in the defense of the finger-pointers, the original word was that it was, indeed, arson. (And even now there's no official word on what the cause was.) And since trees don't spontaneously combust, the cause is quite mysterious. There's been no lightning in the area for weeks; and it could be a friction fire caused by two branches rubbing together--but surely over 1.28 million days of wind and storms the tree would have gone through an uncountable number of branch-rubbings and lightning strikes without going up like a roman candle.

Or it could be, as some have speculated, that it was indeed arson, and the "it's been ruled out" statement is a red herring tossed out there, as investigators know from long experience that a person who would target such an icon for destruction would be likely to take umbrage at not getting the attention he craved, and would therefore be more likely to spill the beans to a few friends. Just a thought...
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Iranian Crisis: escalating series of troubling events sliding world towards war

Posted on January 17, 2012
January 17, 2012 – IRAN – Iran has boosted security for all its nuclear workers after one of its scientists was assassinated last week, First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi said Tuesday. “Whoever is active in the nuclear field will be put under special care,” Rahimi said in remarks reported by the official IRNA news agency. The order was given by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Rahimi said. The ISNA news agency quoted the vice president saying that the additional measures — which were not specified — come on top of ones ordered 10 months ago for Iran’s nuclear scientists. “This time around, the government ordered that anyone who is active in the nuclear field, from low levels to higher ups, be under surveillance and put under special care,” Rahimi said. The new security order was given after Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, a 32-year-old deputy director of Iran’s main uranium enrichment plant, was murdered on January 11 along with his driver/bodyguard when assassins on a motorbike fixed a magnetic bomb to their car. The attack was the fifth such incident targeting Iran’s scientists in the past two years. Four other scientists — three of them involved in Iran’s nuclear program — died in the attacks, while one managed to escape with injuries. Iranian officials say the attacks are a covert campaign by Israel and the United States. –Ynet News
Events at dangerous cross-roads: It’s unlikely that President Barack Obama intends to go to the polls in November with the United States engaged in a hot war with Iran, but there is a growing danger that events could conspire to make the decision for him. The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that “U.S. defense leaders are increasingly concerned that Israel is preparing to take military action against Iran, over U.S. objections, and have stepped up contingency planning to safeguard U.S. facilities in the region in case of a conflict.” Besides planning for the contingency of being dragged into a war started by Israel, the Journal reported that Administration officials from President Obama on down have urged their Israeli counterparts to refrain from unilateral military action. The Israeli response, says the paper, has been “non-committal.” Indeed, Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey is due to visit Israel on Thursday with the purpose, according to Israeli reports, of ascertaining Israel’s intentions. The Iranians would likely hold the U.S. accountable for any Israeli military action, and any retaliation against U.S. assets (or even attacks on Israel) might prompt the U.S. to escalate the confrontation in order to disable Iran’s military capability — and perhaps strike at its nuclear program in the process. Israel’s leaders would certainly prefer the U.S. to do the job, because its capacity to sustain an air assault on Iran is far greater than Israel’s is. But Israeli leaders have long warned that should Washington fail to stop Iran’s nuclear progress, they might be compelled to take military action alone. Israeli media outlets reported Sunday that a massive joint exercise between the Israeli and U.S. military to simulate countering an Iranian missile attack on Israel will be postponed by Washington, in order to ease the dangerous level of tension that has built up with Tehran in recent weeks. –Time blog

British Foreign Secretary William Hague has warned that “intensifying” tensions with Iran could escalate into a crisis that destabilizes the entire Middle East unless the country abandons its nuclear enrichment program. Mr. Hague expressed concerns in The Sunday Telegraph that Iran’s actions could cause a nuclear arms race, and called on the country’s government to negotiate a peaceful resolution to the growing confrontation. -SMH

Russian response could lead to WWIII: Russia would regard any military intervention linked to Iran’s nuclear program as a threat to its own security, Moscow’s departing ambassador to NATO warned on Friday. “Iran is our neighbor,” Dmitry Rogozin told reporters in Brussels. “And if Iran is involved in any military action, it’s a direct threat to our security.” –Arab Times
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Is the world going crazy? New unexplained noises...

What are they? Mysterious unexplained noises now being reported across the globe
Posted on January 17, 2012
January 17, 2012 World A series of unexplained noises are being reported across the globe and the frequency of these events appear to be increasing. The sounds range in description from Cbizarre and creepy to Cindustrial and mechanical. The sounds appear to be omni-directional and seem to have no single traced source of origin or horizontal source of degree graduation- leaving one with the impression they are coming from directly overhead or directly underneath the earth. The videos below are reports of the unexplained acoustic phenomenon.










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285. palmbaywhoo


That is called the Coliseum Effect.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
In typical fashion, people were ready to point a finger rather then get all the facts....

The "Senator" Not Lit By Arsonist





Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 388

The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
central Warren County in south central Kentucky...
this includes the city of Bowling Green...

* until 1215 PM CST...

* at 1151 am CST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe squall line capable of producing brief rain-wrapped
tornadoes in addition to widespread straight line wind damage. This
dangerous storm was located near Blue Level... moving east at 55
mph.

* This storm will also impact...
Plum Springs...
Mount Victor...
Delafield...
Crestmoor...
Bristow and Warren County regional Airport...
Sunnyside and Loving...
Oakland and Smiths Grove...
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 159
1153 am CST Tue Jan 17 2012

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
west central Prentiss County in northeast Mississippi...
southeastern Tippah County in northeast Mississippi...

* until 1230 PM CST

* at 1154 am CST...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm producing a tornado 16 miles west of
Jumpertown...or near Ripley...moving east at 45 mph.

* Locations in the warning include but are not limited to Jumpertown.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 159
"La Nina 'linked' to flu pandemics"
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Not to mention infinitely more complex than any anthropomorphic god. Yet Christians often use the supposed complexity of the universe as evidence to support their god, completely ignorant (willfully or otherwise) of this fact.

Kind of ironic, really.

If you think that some families are God's chosen people, then logic like this is irrelevant.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5998
74 in south Florida, man I love it here, I'll never move.
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Quoting Patrap:


Fruitcake date back to the Mesozoic..so that's er, "Food fer thought".
How DAT?
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I see and appreciate the discussion of the last 3 hurricane seasons, ENSO, etc., but have to say, my vote for the biggest influence on 2011's hurricane season was the massive dry-air zone aloft that sucked the life out of so many tropical systems.

While that sheet of dry air aloft was much more vast than the Continental US, I can't help but look at the ongoing dryness/warmth in Texas, our pronounced dryness this fall/winter in SW Florida (and across the rim of the Gulf), and wonder if we're just seeing a large-scale pattern that will vanish when La Nina does, or if this is a harbinger of climatic warming.
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60 degrees here in Louisville, Ky on this 17th day of January. Tornado warnings have just expired. Still have severe thunderstorm warnings with 60 mph winds. Two semi's blown over on the freeway. I need a new furnace, but I think I'll wait til next winter! Rollercoaster temperatures so far this winter, not so much cold.
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Iran: Oil embargo means 'economic suicide' for EU

Published January 17, 2012


TEHRAN, Iran-- Iran's OPEC governor said Tuesday a European Union embargo on Iranian oil would be "economic suicide" for Europe, the latest stiff statement reflecting Iranian concern about the prospect of deeper sanctions over its nuclear program.

Iran is OPEC's second largest oil producer, and oil exports account for 80 percent of Iran's foreign currency income. Iran sells about 20 percent of its oil exports to Europe.

European nations are considering whether to go along with new U.S. legislation outlawing transactions with Iran's central bank, indirectly limiting Iranian oil shipments by making it harder for customers to pay for them. The law takes effect later this year.

Iran has reacted with a string of strong pronouncements. It threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, where most of the Gulf's oil exports pass, it scheduled war games in the area of the strait, it warned the U.S. not to send an aircraft carrier back into the Gulf -- and now it is cautioning Europe over the consequences of abandoning Iranian oil.

"Applying the scenario of sanctions on Iran's oil exports to EU members would be economic suicide for the member countries," the semiofficial Mehr news agency quoted OPEC governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi as saying.

"Regarding the economic crisis in the eurozone, imposing any sanction on Iran's oil will push European countries into a deeper crisis," Khatibi said. The European currency is already under pressure because of debt and financing problems facing some of its members.

At issue is Iran's nuclear development program. The U.S., Israel and others charge that Iran is trying to build nuclear weapons. Their case was bolstered by a report from the International Atomic Energy late last year, publishing what it said was evidence that Iran was employing methods and equipment used in making bombs.

Iran has consistently denied that, saying its nuclear program is peaceful, aimed at producing electric power and isotopes for cancer treatment.

Iran urged Saudi Arabia to rethink its offer to offset losses in the world oil market if Iran cannot export its share. Saudi Arabia, a Sunni nation, is a bitter enemy of Shiite Iran.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi, in comments published Sunday, said, "We are prepared to meet the increase in global demand as a result of any circumstances."

Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi asked Al-Naimi to consider the issue with "contemplation and wisdom," the official IRNA news agency reported Tuesday.

Salehi told IRNA, "I think the comment from Saudi Arabia on increasing oil production was only the personal view of its oil minister, and Saudi government definitely has no such idea."

Saudi Arabia is the only OPEC member with enough spare capacity to make up the shortfall if Iranian oil exports are blocked.

Another Iranian official, Oil Minister Rostam Ghasemi, dismissed the effectiveness of moves targeting Iran's nuclear program.

Ghasemi said Tuesday, "I am sure we will overcome oil sanctions."


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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0024
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0926 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME E TX/NRN AND CENTRAL LA/SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 171526Z - 171600Z

WW WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED FROM EXTREME E TX EWD THROUGH MUCH
OF NRN/CENTRAL LA TO SRN MS.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITHIN A
CORRIDOR OF ONGOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WAA ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL TX PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS ATTENDANT TO A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL WAA APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISMS. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT THIS
TIME AND CLOUDINESS LIMITING DIABATIC HEATING...THE PRESENCE OF
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE
SUPPORTING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS LA /MLCAPE AOA 1000
J PER KG/.

12Z RAOBS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARM NOSE/LAYER ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY THAT MAY CONTINUE TO ACT AS A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR OVERALL COVERAGE OF MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS/STRONGER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE SWD ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...ORGANIZED LINEAR STRUCTURES REMAIN LIKELY WITH AT LEAST A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO THE TX SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD WEAKEN THE CAP
SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN
STRONG LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR AND SRH EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2.

..PETERS.. 01/17/2012


ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31069420 31799431 32269358 32519235 32599043 32508856
31698844 30998848 30949107 30909346 30909381 31069420
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
.....e much of staff revolted against him. I..........

When I read the following link provided by Dr. M it gets to the controversy that lead to Bill Proenza's going a way.

Focus on QuikSCAT--out of proportion? This was the main issue

I believe that NHC official forecasts for landfalling storms in the Atlantic would not be significantly affected by the loss of the QuikSCAT satellite.

Can any one tell me how the QuikSCAT part of it played out over the years. Was Proenza correct or incorrect, or was the result not definitive?
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I remember what happened during Last Hurricane Season a Stinking High Pressure was Stuck on top of Texas forever it seemed. Near 70 this morning for a low so did Summer arrive early or what? Suppose to Cool down for a day or so then near 80 by later this week and weekend. Get out the sunscreen. :)
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Howdy All. Figured I would drop in and say WAAAAAAAAAAAZZZZZZZZAAAAAAAAAAAAP


218. HurricaneDean07 3:02 AM GMT on January 17, 2012

The chances of a fourth consecutive year of similar Hurricane tracks is statistically rather slim, IMO. Notice how similar the bulk of the tracks have been the past three years? Not sure yet of my thoughts on the upcoming season. I can only assume at this point that it won't follow suit with the past three.

2009


2010


2011


Lets see how enso behaves will a weak/moderate el nino make an appeareance during the heart of this season? As of now i think neutral seems most probable. Atlantic has no previous memory of what happened last season infact if the overall general pattern is for a trof parked of the southeast united states then (most) storms will once again recurve.
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The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
central Rapides Parish in central Louisiana...
east central Vernon Parish in west central Louisiana...

* until 1000 am CST

* at 920 am CST... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Lacamp...
moving east at 30 mph.

* The tornado will be near...
Sieper by 935 am CST...
Otis by 945 am CST...
Gardner by 950 am CST...
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 159
The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
central Crawford County in south central Indiana...
southwestern Floyd County in south central Indiana...
northern Harrison County in south central Indiana...

* until 1100 am EST...

* at 1025 am EST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This dangerous
storm was located near Riddle... moving east at 55 mph.

* This tornadic storm will also impact...
Corydon...
Wyandotte...
White Cloud and Moberly...
Crandall and New Salisbury...
Lanesville and Breckenridge...
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 159
Quoting stormygace:


Like Al Gore, eh?


I'm afraid you lost me on this one. What does Al Gore have to do with religion?
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Large Image,


A Royal Celebration

This enormous section of the Milky Way galaxy is a mosaic of images from NASA's Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, or WISE. The constellations Cassiopeia and Cepheus are featured in this 1,000-square degree expanse. These constellations, named after an ancient Queen and King of Ethiopia in Greek mythology, are visible in the northern sky every night of the year as seen from most of the United States.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
One can also note the prevalent La Nina signature with the eastward displaced Bermuda/Azores high in the past three years.
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good morning good morning, what a beautiful day here in NC!! gon over th grandparents house to get wood under the woodshed before it possibly rains, be back around 5. be good lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Howdy All. Figured I would drop in and say WAAAAAAAAAAAZZZZZZZZAAAAAAAAAAAAP


218. HurricaneDean07 3:02 AM GMT on January 17, 2012

The chances of a fourth consecutive year of similar Hurricane tracks is statistically rather slim, IMO. Notice how similar the bulk of the tracks have been the past three years? Not sure yet of my thoughts on the upcoming season. I can only assume at this point that it won't follow suit with the past three.

2009


2010


2011
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Not to mention infinitely more complex than any anthropomorphic god. Yet Christians often use the supposed complexity of the universe as evidence to support their god, completely ignorant (willfully or otherwise) of this fact.

Kind of ironic, really.


Like Al Gore, eh?
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Forecast of 18-24 inches of snow in Seattle now. Jim Cantore will be onsite
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Quoting ncgnto25:


Using remarkable ingenuity, the Maya created the "Long Count" calendar, a departure from the shorter calendars. The Long Count is a numerically predictable calendar, not based on archaic measures of time.

Now, purely as a consequence of the Long Count's numerical value, many Mayan scholars agree that the calendar will "run out" after 5,126 years (or, at least, it's first cycle does). The Mayans set this calendar to begin in the year 3114 B.C. (according to our modern Gregorian calendar). If the Long Count began in 3114 B.C. and it's calculated to continue for 5126 years, the "end date" will be -- you guessed it -- 2012 A.D. Further refinement sets the date to Dec. 21, the day of the winter solstice for the Northern Hemisphere.

Xyrus, this is one simplified explanation of the Mayan Calendar. I think the guy that figured this out sat back after writing calendars that ran for 5026 years and said 'Whew, I've had enough!!' and stopped right there. :-)


Or something like that. Maybe he was cynical and said "If we make it this long, we won't need this calendar!". :D
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261. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 RET January 17 2012
====================================

Cyclogenesis south of the Chagos archipelago (between 10S-15S and 63E-78E):
--------------------------------------

Convection within Intertropical Convergence Zone has concentrated during the next 24 hours into this area; a low can be detected near 9.5S 74.5E with an estimated pressure of 1004 hPa. Low level equatorial convergence is good with a moderate monsoon flow, and a low level ridge keeps in position south of the area for the next 36 hours. Sea surface temperature are favorable, and upper level divergence is good with two outflows channels equatorial and polar present over this area. Numerical weather prediction available develop a quick cyclogenesis on Wednesday with a displacement south-westwards. A significant and potentially quick deepening is possible within a favorable environment on Wednesday.

Cyclogenesis over the Mozambican channel (between 14S-18S):
------------------------------------------------- -

A cluster has built near the African coast north of 15S since 0:00 AM UTC. Convection has clearly intensify stretching from 10S to 17S east of 44E, with favorable conditions (Sea surface temperature >29, very good upper level divergence under the upper level ridge) with good equatorial inflow with a moderate monsoon flow. the polar inflow is expected to improve with the dissipation of the residual low of ex-Dando inland up to 48 hours. Numerical weather prediction available show a significant development up to this hour. A significant deepening is possible within a favorable environment on Tuesday.

The potential for the development of a tropical depression becomes fair to good Wednesday south of the Chagos archipelago, and become also fair over the channel on Tuesday.
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Quoting percylives:
The following is from realclimate.org. There are links available there. If you haven't seen David Archer's lectures or read his book, consider doing both now. A real treat.

"Almost 3000 non-science major undergraduates at the University of Chicago have taken PHSC13400, Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast, since Ray Pierrehumbert and I (David Archer) first developed it back in 1995. Since the publication of the textbook for the class in 2005 (and a much-cleaned-up 2nd edition now shipping), enrollment has gone through the roof, it’s all I’ve been able to teach the last few years, trying to keep up with demand. I hear it is the largest class on campus, with 4-500 students a year out of an annual class of only around 1400. Now the content of this class is being served to the internet world at large: Open Climate 101.

You can watch video lectures followed by quizzes to challenge and hopefully stimulate your understanding, and work your way through tutorials with interactive models and simple mathematical ideas. Actually all that stuff has been available for a long time, online or in the textbook, but now it’s packaged into an interactive assessing system, which admittedly lacks the personality and finesse of our graduate student teaching assistants, but I hope it’ll get the job done. You can work at your own pace, on your own time. You don’t get University of Chicago credit, but it’s free, and if you get to the end of it you can download a certificate of accomplishment with your name and a verification code, signed by me. I hope people find it useful."

Saw this, and signed up yesterday. It never hurts to learn more, you know?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13508
Just heard about Bill Read's upcoming retirement. Bill is a great guy to talk with - very down to earth and knowledgeable. Also, he has a great sense of humor - someone who can communicate well with both the meteorology community and the general public.

Knabb or Landsea would be interesting picks - both of those guys are so young - if they did a good job and took to the position - you could potentially see tenures rivaling Neil Frank's. I've spoken with both and they are both detail-oriented and excellent communicators.

Ed Rappaport is the strong, quiet type. Knows his stuff inside and out. He's be an awesome NHC director.

Don't know Jim Franklin enough.. but, judging from the quality of the reports coming out of the NHC - and the improvements that have happened over the past four years - I'm guessing he's got his eye on continual improvement.
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The following is from realclimate.org. There are links available there. If you haven't seen David Archer's lectures or read his book, consider doing both now. A real treat.

"Almost 3000 non-science major undergraduates at the University of Chicago have taken PHSC13400, Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast, since Ray Pierrehumbert and I (David Archer) first developed it back in 1995. Since the publication of the textbook for the class in 2005 (and a much-cleaned-up 2nd edition now shipping), enrollment has gone through the roof, it’s all I’ve been able to teach the last few years, trying to keep up with demand. I hear it is the largest class on campus, with 4-500 students a year out of an annual class of only around 1400. Now the content of this class is being served to the internet world at large: Open Climate 101.

You can watch video lectures followed by quizzes to challenge and hopefully stimulate your understanding, and work your way through tutorials with interactive models and simple mathematical ideas. Actually all that stuff has been available for a long time, online or in the textbook, but now it’s packaged into an interactive assessing system, which admittedly lacks the personality and finesse of our graduate student teaching assistants, but I hope it’ll get the job done. You can work at your own pace, on your own time. You don’t get University of Chicago credit, but it’s free, and if you get to the end of it you can download a certificate of accomplishment with your name and a verification code, signed by me. I hope people find it useful."
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257. Jax82
136 days, or 3264 hours, or 195,840 minutes, or 11,750,400 seconds, til the 2012 apocalyptic hurricane season begins. And now, onto the pointless SST map for January :-)



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Quoting MahFL:
I have a feeling in my bones Florida will get hit with a hurricane this year.
Nice user name.Mah(my)Fl.LOL.It's one of those names you won't forget.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16771
255. MahFL
I have a feeling in my bones Florida will get hit with a hurricane this year.
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Quoting percylives:
It was 46 on the back porch at 5 AM here in central VA this morning. A good mid-day temp for this time of year not too long ago.

Morning, I had 39.7 on the back porch this am. Zephyrhills FL.
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Active morning:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31882
I noticed that when the U.S has a cold and snowey winter then that same hurricane season storms often strike the east coast,or go out to sea.However for warmer less snowey winter's we get storms to strike Florida,the gulf caost,central america.....Example's are the 2007-2008 winter,the 2006-2007 winter.The 2004-2005 winter.If memory serves me correctly wasn't the 2003-2004 winter warm?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16771
It was 46 on the back porch at 5 AM here in central VA this morning. A good mid-day temp for this time of year not too long ago.
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


I must be an exception then. I don't believe in a higher power and I certainly don't believe the world will end in 2012. Of course it could, as there is always a non-zero chance that some sort of unexpected calamity can happen that would effectively wipe us out. But it's pretty much the same non-zero chance as the year before, and the year before that, so on and so forth.


Using remarkable ingenuity, the Maya created the "Long Count" calendar, a departure from the shorter calendars. The Long Count is a numerically predictable calendar, not based on archaic measures of time.

Now, purely as a consequence of the Long Count's numerical value, many Mayan scholars agree that the calendar will "run out" after 5,126 years (or, at least, it's first cycle does). The Mayans set this calendar to begin in the year 3114 B.C. (according to our modern Gregorian calendar). If the Long Count began in 3114 B.C. and it's calculated to continue for 5126 years, the "end date" will be -- you guessed it -- 2012 A.D. Further refinement sets the date to Dec. 21, the day of the winter solstice for the Northern Hemisphere.

Xyrus, this is one simplified explanation of the Mayan Calendar. I think the guy that figured this out sat back after writing calendars that ran for 5026 years and said 'Whew, I've had enough!!' and stopped right there. :-)
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TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
141 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 215 AM CST

* AT 136 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF ST. JAMES...OR 12 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ROLLA...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CUBA...BOURBON...SULLIVAN...LEASBURG...OAK HILL AND ST. CLOUD.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.