Damage losses and climate change

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:58 PM GMT on January 03, 2012

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During 2011, a series of violent tornado outbreaks hit the Plains and Southeast U.S., bringing an astonishing six billion-dollar disasters in a three-month period. The epic tornado onslaught killed 552 people and brought three of the five largest tornado outbreaks on record in a six-week period, including the largest and most expensive tornado outbreak in U.S. history--the April 25 - 28 Super Outbreak, which did $10.2 billion dollars in damage. Insured losses due to thunderstorms and tornadoes in the U.S. were at least $25 billion in 2011, more than double the previous record set in 2010. Damages from thunderstorms and tornadoes since 1980 have shown a clear increase since 1980 (Figure 2.) Disaster losses world-wide from weather-related natural disasters have also shown a significant increase in recent years, as has the number of these disasters. But how much of this is due to a change in the climate, and how much might be due to increases in population, wealth, and other factors?


Figure 1. Damage in Tuscaloosa, Alabama after the April 27, 2011 EF-4 tornado. Image credit: NOAA.


Not enough evidence to judge if climate change is affecting tornadoes
As I discussed last week in my post, 2011: Year of the Tornado, as far as we can tell, the number of damaging tornadoes has not increased in recent years, though the quality of the data set is to poor to know for sure. This is largely due to the fact that we never directly measure a tornado's winds--a tornado has to run over a building before we can make an EF-scale strength estimate, based on the damage. As tornado researcher Chuck Doswell said in a 2007 paper, "I see no near-term solution to the problem of detecting detailed spatial and temporal trends in the occurrence of tornadoes by using the observed data in its current form or in any form likely to evolve in the near future." My 2008 post, Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent?, discussed how a better way to assess how climate change may be affecting tornadoes is to look at how the large-scale environmental conditions favorable for tornado formation have changed through time. The most important ingredients for tornado formation are usually high atmospheric instability (as measured by the Convective Available Potential Energy, or CAPE), and high amounts of wind shear between the surface and 6 km altitude. Not enough work has been done on the subject to judge whether or not climate change is affecting severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, though.


Figure 2. Insured losses due to thunderstorms and tornadoes in the U.S. in 2011 dollars. Data taken from Property Claims Service MR NatCatSERVICE. Image credit: Munich Re.

Are the number of weather-related disasters increasing?
At a talk given last month at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco, Mark Bove of Munich Re insurance company examined trends in both damages and number of natural disasters since 1980. These numbers have shown significant increases since 1980. After we take out the increase in disasters reported due to an increasing population, greater wealth, and more advanced communications, is there a trend due to climate change? One way to check is to compare natural disasters due to geophysical events--earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions--to weather-related disasters. Geophysical disasters should remain relatively constant in number in a changing climate (unless sea level rise is occurring so rapidly that it is causing significant changes in stress on earthquake faults, something that is theoretically possible, but has not yet been observed.) If we then look at trends in the number of geophysical disasters versus weather-related disasters reported, it should give us an idea of how much of the recent increase in weather-related disasters may be due to climate change. Between 1980 and 2010, geophysical disasters increased by about a factor of 1.5, while weather-related disasters increased by a factor of 2.7 to 3.5 (Figure 3.) Bove stated that he thought weather-related disasters were likely subject to a higher increase in reporting rate than geophysical disasters, but not enough to account for the huge difference. Climate change was the likely reason for a large portion of the increase in weather-related disasters in recent years, he argued. His talk concluded, "there is quite some probability that natural catastrophe losses are driven already by human-caused climate change."


Figure 3. The number of natural disasters reported has increased markedly worldwide since 1980, particularly for weather-related disasters. Image credit: Munich Re.

However, this conclusion is controversial. A 2010 paper in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society by Netherlands researcher Laurens Bouwer titled, "Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change?", looked at 22 disaster loss studies world-wide, published between 2001 and 2010. All of the studies showed an increase in damages from weather-related disasters in recent decades. Fourteen of the 22 studies concluded that there were no trends in damage after correcting for increases in wealth and population, while eight of the studies did find upward trends even after such corrections, bringing up the question whether or not climate change could be responsible for the increased disaster losses. However, Bouwer found that "studies that did find increases after normalization did not fully correct for wealth and population increases, or they identified other sources of exposure increases or vulnerability changes or changing environmental conditions." In all 22 studies, increases in wealth and population were the "most important drivers for growing disaster losses." He concluded that human-caused climate change "so far has not had a significant impact on losses from natural disasters."

Using storm surge to evaluate damage normalization studies
Damage from landfalling storms can be used to estimate if hurricanes are growing stronger with time, but damage estimates must first be corrected to account for changes in wealth and population over time. A 2008 study by Pielke et al. found that although hurricane damages had been doubling every ten years in recent decades, there were no increases in normalized hurricane damages in the U.S. from 1900 - 2005. They used census and economic data to adjust for how increases in populations and wealth may have affected hurricane damages over time. However, Grinsted et al. (2012) questioned whether or not this was done correctly. They found that storm surge heights of U.S. hurricanes and tropical storms correlated very well with metrics that looked at storm intensity, when looking at many decades of data to see long-term trends. However, the researchers found that while short-term trends in normalized hurricane damage estimated by Pielke et al. (2008) did correlate well historical storm surges, these normalized damages had poor correlation with the storm surge record, when looking at decades-long time scales. This implies that the corrections were biased. Dr. Stephan Lewandowsky of the University of Western Australia makes the case that efforts such as the one done by Pielke et al. (2008) to normalize disaster losses are probably biased too low, since they only look at factors that tend to increase disaster losses with time, but ignore factors that tend to decrease disaster losses. These ignored factors include improvements in building codes, better weather forecasts allowing more preparation time, and improved fire-fighting ability. He writes, "Most normalization research to date has not accounted for those variables because they are extremely difficult to quantify. (And most researchers have been at pains to point that out; e.g., Neumayer & Barthel, 2011, pp. 23-24.) In effect, normalization research to date largely rests on the oddly inconsistent pair of assumptions that (a) we have built up enormous wealth during the 20th century but (b) did so without any technological advance whatsoever." For example, during a severe October 2013 windstorm that did over $1 billion in damage to France, England, Germany, the Netherlands, and Denmark, "The insured losses for the St. Jude's Day storm would have been significantly higher but for the accuracy in weather forecasting several days ahead of the storm's formation", said financial information services company Fitch Services, since "policyholders have more time to protect their property from potential damage, while government agencies, utility firms and transport companies can make logistical arrangements to minimize disruption to power supplies and transport networks."

Conclusion
Studies showing no increase in normalized damage from storms have high uncertainty, and it is possible that higher economic damages due to stronger storms is indeed occurring, though the current research does not show this. Looking at disasters losses to make an argument that climate change is affecting our weather is difficult, due to the rarity of extreme events, and the changes in wealth and population that also affect disaster losses. We are better off looking at how the atmosphere, oceans, and glaciers are changing to find evidence of climate change--and there is plenty of evidence there.

References
Tornado researcher Dr. Harold Brooks has a May 2012 op-ed in New Scientist that discusses the difficulty in predicting how climate change will impact tornadoes.

Bouwer, L, 2010, "Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change?", BAMS, January 2011, DOI:10.1175/2010BAMS3092.1

Doswell, C.A., 2007, "Small Sample Size and Data Quality Issues Illustrated Using Tornado Occurrence Data", E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology Vol 2, No. 5 (2007).

Del Genio, A.D., M-S Yao, and J. Jonas, 2007,
Will moist convection be stronger in a warmer climate?, Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L16703, doi: 10.1029/2007GL030525.

Grinsted, A., J. C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2012, "A homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923," PNAS 2012, doi:10.1073/pnas.1209542109

Marsh, P.T., H.E. Brooks, and D.J. Karoly, 2007, Assessment of the severe weather environment in North America simulated by a global climate model, Atmospheric Science Letters, 8, 100-106, doi: 10.1002/asl.159.

Neumayer, E. & Barthel, F. (2011). Normalizing economic loss from natural disasters: A global analysis Global Environmental Change, 21, 13-24.

Pielke et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900–2005", Natural Hazards Review, Volume 9, Issue 1, pp. 29-42.

Riemann-Campe, K., Fraedrich, K., and F. Lunkeit, 2009, Global climatology of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Convective Inhibition (CIN) in ERA-40 reanalysis, Atmospheric Research Volume 93, Issues 1-3, July 2009, Pages 534-545, 4th European Conference on Severe Storms.

Trapp, R.J., N.S. Diffenbaugh, H.E. Brooks, M.E. Baldwin, E.D. Robinson, and J.S. Pal, 2007, Severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing, PNAS 104 no. 50, 19719-19723, Dec. 11, 2007.

Jeff Masters

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Until the driving force of the Earth is changed from the accumulation of Wealth and Power by Men and Nation's, NOTHING will change in the big scheme of things.


Good luck with that.

A mans reach should exceed his grasp. If not for the "driving" forces" we'd still be living in caves.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Patrap:
All have missed the mark but are on the Dartboard in a way.

Until the driving force of the Earth is changed from the accumulation of Wealth and Power by Men and Nation's, NOTHING will change in the big scheme of things.

We need a epiphany in a way.

All of history has brought us to this point in time.

We are nearing a moment that will never happen again, and has never happened before.






You put it much differently, but correctly Patrap. And I believe going after Congress in general is the first step toward actually doing something about it. Or, do we not even try because it is hopeless???.......
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Evening all. While we have been blogging, I wonder if anybody else realizes that the first week of January is practically done? Only 51 weeks left in the year!

Our weather today moderated slightly, since we didn't have a much wind as earlier this week. Due to overcast conditions last night, we didn't cool as much as was originally expected, either. It looks like it may clear tonight, though, so it may really dip below 60 tonight....

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21403
431. Jedkins01

. "I have often succumbed to a bias myself and I'm not exactly among the worlds brightest minds and don't posses such credentials?"

I think they love to call this cherry picking?
It doesn't matter my dear person who you are, or what you are? you are here as an observer.

Each one of us is a contributor, either a negative{against,} or antagonistic, {positive, for}
I am only I, against, because you are for:- I must contest you as you are against me?
Who am I to stand and wonder? Whilst the wheels of fate, slowly grind my life away? ( I think country Joe said that at Woodstock,} a while ago now? In fact I'm sure of it? Who Am I?
To stand and wonder?
Hi to those who remember:-

It does not matter who you think you are, what matters is that you contribute!!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I hope that the steering currents take most of the storms away from the u.s.......or any land area for that matter.Even though weather has been wacky it hasn't been starting off as bad as the past few years.
2012 has only just begun its run lets see where we stand after the spring and severe season
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16366
La Nina is providing Texas with a Very Mild past couple of months, i cannot remember wearing my shorts so much in Dec. and January.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


Do you have any evidence of any actual climate scientists actually doing this?



Ahhh but I didn't say anything about Climate scientists doing that did I?
I said people, which could speak for anyone, in this case I'm speaking of people other than scientists, cause if you actually read my post you would have been able to acknowledge that my entire point in my comment was about those who are claiming that scientists are using the urban heat island effect to prove GW are wrong.

But do you want to get my opinion on if Climatologists directly try and hide the truth? I would say no, because there is no direct proof.
I try to think the best of people, so no, I'm not going to do a huge investigation on trying to uncover climatologists and other scientists to discover if they are really telling the truth about AGW. It would truly be a pathetic and mindset full of anger and opposition just to spend my career focus on "exposing" scientists who might be lying. I don't think it does exist, and if it does that would be pretty lame of them, and I have better and more important things to be concerned of in life.

However I have observed enough stubbornness and pride by those who stand by AGW to suggest that there is a bias toward AGW. However I am not putting a target on Climatologists back, or any other scientists who strongly stick by AGW. What I'm saying is that a bias might exist, not that for sure it does, but that it might. In the same way I believe some referees have a bias for some players and teams yet they try their best to give an honest call because that's what they love to do as their job. Its part of the human condition to be biased and proud, and if your someone very smart with a Doctorate in Climatology who has done a large amount of research for AGW, it would certainly be hard not to be proud and have somewhat of a bias. I have often succumbed to a bias myself and I'm not exactly among the worlds brightest minds and don't posses such credentials.


To believe scientists can't be influenced by a bias even a strong one at times like the rest of us is choosing to believe in foolish philosophies about human beings that don't reflect the realities of life and actual human behavior. Climatologists are not the gods of science. I respect their research and opinions and they certainly have gathered lots of scary evidence about how humans have negatively affected the earth. However however I don't necessarily agree with all the conclusions they draw from their research. Yes, I am allowed to disagree without being a fool. Science is about studying the unknown, lets not forget that.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7266
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Could Lack of Snowpack Lead to Water Concerns?
by Chris Dolce and Jess Baker



Snowpack across the western United States right now is paltry when compared to this time last year. Below is an image showing the expansive and deep snow cover (white, blue, purple shadings) across the western region on January 4, 2011. The darkest blue and purple shadings show the deepest snowpack over the various mountain ranges.

weather.com feature: Check on ski conditions

Move your mouse over the image below to reveal the snowpack over the western states on January 4, 2012 and you will see the dramatic reduction in snow across the region when compared to last year. According to the National Resource Conservation Service, the snowpack in Idaho is the lowest it has been in January since 1988. Simply put, the storm track has been unfavorable so far this season if you are looking for prolific amounts of snow from California's Sierra Nevada to the Wasatch of Utah and the Rockies.

One of the most dramatic differences from last year is in the aforementioned Sierra Nevada. Next we will examine a close-up look at this mountain range and what the lack of snow means for the water supply in the Golden State.


Link
Amazing what a difference a year makes, last year much of the West received above average snowfall. The Sierra Nevadas in particular received record snow. Mammoth Mountain, a popular ski resort in the Sierra Nevada mountain range, received 669 (over 55ft) of snow last year crushing the old record set in the 2005-2006 season by over 7 feet of snow.

So far this year, they've only received 52 inches of snow - about half of what they normally have by this time of year.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
I hope that the steering currents take most of the storms away from the u.s.......or any land area for that matter.Even though weather has been wacky it hasn't been starting off as bad as the past few years.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16366
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

So it wouldn't get cold and snowy? What would it mean then?

P.S. The image is from Levi's facebook page.
Well it depends where you live. Stratospheric warming over the Arctic correlates to warmer arctic in the troposphere as well. This reduces the pressure gradient between the Arctic and mid-latitudes giving us a negative AO. When the pressure gradient is weaker the jet stream becomes more amplified and cold air is allowed to dive down farther south. This creates cooler and stormier weather for the mid latitudes. However, as Levi has been mentioning, with the La Nina in place (although it does appear to be breaking down according to the SOI) it will be tough for the SE US to actually be cooler than normal (since La Nina's favor ridging and warmer temperatures in the SE US).
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting JeffMasters:
Since 2012 is off to a wacky weather start, ABC News is doing a 1-minute piece tonight on this winter's record
warmth and dryness on their 6:30pm EST newscast. I'll probably have a 10-second sound bite in there.

Jeff Masters

Jeff.
You are the boss of this blog thing!
Can you please invent a page or a something that we can sort of relate too, where people can have a vote as to whether they are worried/gravely concerned, or just think its a bit of a hype about all this global warming thing etc.
I am personally running out of life trying to convince people that what is nigh is about to be implimented.
Maybe use one of those {esoteric} terms here? "You are either for me?" Or against me!
So much for primary theories?
Thank you for the blog.
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Can someone post a link to an ABC feed from somewhere? My cable at home is out....again...because Comcast is about as useless as ice in an igloo....many thanks!!
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Also, and for those of you who are interested when severe or tropical weather issues arise later this year, I am enclosing the link below for "LiveATC.Net" where you can pretty much dial up any Airport in the world and listen to real time Tower-Aircraft communications. Great reasource to listen to for the US and Caribbean to get a feel for conditions in any particular area during severe weather events.

Enjoy this One.......................WW.



Link
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424. MTWX
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Hey Folks and Happy New Year. Here is the PM Tallahassee discussion as to the potential for severe weather next week along the Gulf States. BTW, I don't follow other NWS Office weather discussions but the discussions coming out of my local office the past few months have been very good and detailed.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
330 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2012

As an enhanced East Asian Jet develops eastward, gaining about 30-40 degrees of longitude past the International Date Line, upper level ridging will quickly expand over the Pacific coast of North America
by this weekend. This will allow a shortwave trough currently south of the Aleutian Islands to dig sharply SSE into the Four Corners region this weekend. The cutoff low will eventually become the major weather story next week as it ejects east along the Gulf Coast. The ECMWF, GFS, UKMET and GEM all now agree on a significant closed upper level low traversing the Gulf Coast states Tuesday-Wednesday
south of 35N latitude. Unsurprisingly they all also indicate rapid low-level cyclogenesis with a surface low moving from near the Louisiana coast early Tuesday into the Mid South by early Wednesday.
From a pattern recognition standpoint, this sort of ejecting wave rather far south combined with quick development of a surface low just northwest of our area would tend to support some level of severe weather threat. This is something that will need to be watched closely as the event approaches. Given recent run-to-run variability, PoPs were capped in the "chance" range, and many of the forecast elements were blended with the previous forecast.


SPC's current outlook:

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CST THU JAN 05 2012

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS/UKMET SUGGEST THAT SPLIT UPPER FLOW WITH A GENERAL
TENDENCY FOR LONGWAVE TROUGHING EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD. FOCUS WILL BE ON EARLY NEXT WEEK
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AS IT
GRADUALLY EMERGES FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
VARIABILITY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM IS LESSER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME VARIABILITY INHERENTLY REMAINS REGARDING THE
STRENGTH/TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. WHAT CURRENTLY SEEMS
PROBABLE IS THAT TSTM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE/GENERALLY DEVELOP
EASTWARD EACH DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CONUS THROUGH
DAYS 5-7 MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ACCESS TO AN
INCREASINGLY/RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME SEVERE THREAT MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE BY AROUND DAY 5/MONDAY ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SOUTH TX
/MAINLY PER THE ECMWF/ AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT. SUBSEQUENTLY...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM SPREADS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...WHAT MAY ULTIMATELY BE A MORE PROBABLE SEVERE
THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION/PERHAPS MID-SOUTH ON
DAY 6/TUESDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS ON DAY
7/WEDNESDAY.

WHILE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT SEEMS POSSIBLE DAY 5/MONDAY AND
MORE SO INTO DAYS 6/7 TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED...SPECIFIC PREDICTABILITY/CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIME FRAME
REMAINS MODEST. AS SUCH...NO 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS
ARE CURRENTLY DELINEATED. SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS WILL BETTER BE ABLE TO
ASCERTAIN THE MAGNITUDE/EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE RISK DURING THIS
PERIOD.
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Oh well, my spotlights not working too well but all the better for the environment?
So in my village,in{Spain} today, {dare I say it's in Andalucia? I don't want to wind up Grother! who wants to remain geographically anonymous due to past lives/wives and all the etc's} Lo siento amigo! anyway its 21/c today outside and even warmer inside. Not bad for the 6th of January 2012?
I just think its time we stopped pussyfooting about with this global warming thing and set ourselves up for a vote on the issue? Those who know how to do it. {and I'm too old to enter the equation} can put together a vote thing. On one of those blog things, where we can vote about whether we think this is real or an illusion.
We in Southern Spain where I am at the moment have not had much rain for a long while.(about 7 months} I realize that people in Texas and other areas have the same problem. As we used to say in the 60's, this is a serious problem? Who's going to analysis it? let alone find a solution?
My question is? How many of us think, serious problems face the future of the human race?
That's all.{for now?}
Back later of course I'll have to face the music on this one!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey Folks and Happy New Year. Here is the PM Tallahassee discussion as to the potential for severe weather next week along the Gulf States. BTW, I don't follow other NWS Office weather discussions but the discussions coming out of my local office the past few months have been very good and detailed.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
330 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2012

As an enhanced East Asian Jet develops eastward, gaining about 30-40 degrees of longitude past the International Date Line, upper level ridging will quickly expand over the Pacific coast of North America
by this weekend. This will allow a shortwave trough currently south of the Aleutian Islands to dig sharply SSE into the Four Corners region this weekend. The cutoff low will eventually become the major weather story next week as it ejects east along the Gulf Coast. The ECMWF, GFS, UKMET and GEM all now agree on a significant closed upper level low traversing the Gulf Coast states Tuesday-Wednesday
south of 35N latitude. Unsurprisingly they all also indicate rapid low-level cyclogenesis with a surface low moving from near the Louisiana coast early Tuesday into the Mid South by early Wednesday.
From a pattern recognition standpoint, this sort of ejecting wave rather far south combined with quick development of a surface low just northwest of our area would tend to support some level of severe weather threat. This is something that will need to be watched closely as the event approaches. Given recent run-to-run variability, PoPs were capped in the "chance" range, and many of the forecast elements were blended with the previous forecast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JeffMasters:
Since 2012 is off to a wacky weather start, ABC News is doing a 1-minute piece tonight on this winter's record
warmth and dryness on their 6:30pm EST newscast. I'll probably have a 10-second sound bite in there.

Jeff Masters
wacky wait i got a feeling things are going to get a whole lot wackier i will try a tune in the segment thats a little short hope i don['t blink


lol

thanks doc for all you do here
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting JeffMasters:
Since 2012 is off to a wacky weather start, ABC News is doing a 1-minute piece tonight on this winter's record
warmth and dryness on their 6:30pm EST newscast. I'll probably have a 10-second sound bite in there.

Jeff Masters


thank's jeff, See you then
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Quoting hydrus:
How do you think Tennessee will do with the severe threat.?

There's a possibility, but the brunt of the Severe Weather will be across the Deep south.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31409
Quoting JeffMasters:
Since 2012 is off to a wacky weather start, ABC News is doing a 1-minute piece tonight on this winter's record
warmth and dryness on their 6:30pm EST newscast. I'll probably have a 10-second sound bite in there.

Jeff Masters

Thanks for the heads up, Dr. Masters.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31409
the system from the south will interact with system over lakes to become a double barrel low for the east coast just s of eastern lake ontario mid next week onward
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
416. JeffMasters (Admin)
Since 2012 is off to a wacky weather start, ABC News is doing a 1-minute piece tonight on this winter's record
warmth and dryness on their 6:30pm EST newscast. I'll probably have a 10-second sound bite in there.

Jeff Masters
www.noaa.gov

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127520
Quoting hydrus:
I am going to watch that now.



Like Alice, best hang on to your local reality as McKenna takes one down the Rabbit hole, and further.

Enjoy it though, as the math itself is fascinating.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127520
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Still have the potential for a Severe Weather Outbreak across Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, and the Carolina's as this significant cut off low sucks in ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. There will be a widespread Heavy Rain event if nothing else across the SouthCentral/East and Mid-Atlantic. Heavy snowfall will be possible in New England.

How do you think Tennessee will do with the severe threat.?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20486


cold is gathering starts the plunge after day ten some nice - 35 to 40 temps in high north getting ready to dive
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Patrap:


I'm really delving into Terrance McKenna's Time Wave Zero Theory, fascinating stuff it is.

I am going to watch that now.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20486
409....Thank you Storm!
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Is this front going to usher in more "cold" weather for south Florida?

Miami NWS Discussion

FOR THE LONG TERM,..LONG TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
NEXT FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


Not the one Tuesday and into Wednesday. That one will have lots of rain and severe wx with it though especially across C FL and points north. However another Gulf disturbance is progged by the Euro to come across on Friday bringing another round of heavy rain with some hefty amounts and then it gets cold again for a few days.



Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting TomTaylor:
wow quite the stratosphere warm up, should bring an end to the positive AO we've had for the last couple of months now.


Do you have a link to that image?
that image was showing 10mb temps...the upper stratosphere

So it wouldn't get cold and snowy? What would it mean then?

P.S. The image is from Levi's facebook page.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31409
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
o_O O_o

wow quite the stratosphere warm up, should bring about a good stretch negative AO following the strong positive AO we've had for the last couple of months now.


Do you have a link to that image?
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Oh no the Polar Vortex! Yikes! Looks as if Old Man Winter is going to make up for lost time over the coming weeks.
that image was showing 10mb temps...the upper stratosphere
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Is this front going to usher in more "cold" weather for south Florida?

Miami NWS Discussion

FOR THE LONG TERM,..LONG TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
NEXT FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Geez Pat, sounds like were entering The Twilight Zone..


I'm really delving into Terrance McKenna's Time Wave Zero Theory, fascinating stuff it is.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127520

NWS New Orleans Long Range Disco


Model are in better agreement with energy dropping across the Pacific northwest and rockies over the weekend developing into a closed low over Texas at the beginning of next week.

This system is then forecast to move east across the lower Mississippi Valley and western and central Gulf Coast regions Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Although there are some timing differences...rain chances will be on the increase early next week. This system is looking fairly potent with at least some chance of a severe weather threat on Tuesday as the surface low tracks east northeast across the
forecast area.

Behind this system...a return to cooler and drier
conditions will be in the offing during the middle and late portion of next week.

11
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127520
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We'd probably get at least some snow, but it would significantly colder than we've been so far this winter.


colder is better :D this is january, not october. i dont want 60's, i want 30's and 20's
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting Patrap:



Novelty has its role in weather as well as time in general.

Chaos is increasing in ways that are now being recognized by the media in general.

Like a Nautilus shell, we are winding down to a change, a nexus of Novelty will occur as we move toward the great attractor, ever faster.



Geez Pat, sounds like were entering The Twilight Zone..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20486
Still have the potential for a Severe Weather Outbreak across Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, and the Carolina's as this significant cut off low sucks in ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. There will be a widespread Heavy Rain event if nothing else across the SouthCentral/East and Mid-Atlantic. Heavy snowfall will be possible in New England.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31409
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, the Northeast would make up for snow very quickly. Powerful storm after storm after storm.

Could happen soon too..Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20486
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Lots os news over the last couple of days in regards to the potential water crisis in California possible for this summer as California has experienced the driest December in over 128 years. The Sierra's have NO snow right. Almost all ski runs in California are closed as a result.



Novelty has its role in weather as well as time in general.

Chaos is increasing in ways that are now being recognized by the media in general.

Like a Nautilus shell, we are winding down to a change, a nexus of Novelty will occur as we move toward the great attractor, ever faster.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127520
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Hi Hydrus, Look what the GFS wants to bring toward the West Coast of FL a squall line. it was about this time last year we had a vicious squall line tear thru here.

When I was living on Captiva Island in the late 70,s & early 80,s , there were numerous squall lines that did major damage to yachts moored at the marina,s, tree,s and land dwellings coming in off the gulf. 79 thru 81 definitely the worst. Many people that we knew lost everything and were seriously injured.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20486
Quoting SPLbeater:


wat about for us NC people? should i expect atleast 1 snowstorm?

We'd probably get at least some snow, but it would significantly colder than we've been so far this winter.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31409
Could Lack of Snowpack Lead to Water Concerns?
by Chris Dolce and Jess Baker



Snowpack across the western United States right now is paltry when compared to this time last year. Below is an image showing the expansive and deep snow cover (white, blue, purple shadings) across the western region on January 4, 2011. The darkest blue and purple shadings show the deepest snowpack over the various mountain ranges.

weather.com feature: Check on ski conditions

Move your mouse over the image below to reveal the snowpack over the western states on January 4, 2012 and you will see the dramatic reduction in snow across the region when compared to last year. According to the National Resource Conservation Service, the snowpack in Idaho is the lowest it has been in January since 1988. Simply put, the storm track has been unfavorable so far this season if you are looking for prolific amounts of snow from California's Sierra Nevada to the Wasatch of Utah and the Rockies.

One of the most dramatic differences from last year is in the aforementioned Sierra Nevada. Next we will examine a close-up look at this mountain range and what the lack of snow means for the water supply in the Golden State.


Link
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting Patrap:
from Weather Underground

Dr. Jeff Masters will be on World News Tonight with Diane Sawyer this evening at 6:30PM EST to look into this winter's record warmth and dryness. Make sure to tune in!


Lots os news over the last couple of days in regards to the potential water crisis in California possible for this summer as California has experienced the driest December in over 128 years. The Sierra's have NO snow right. Almost all ski runs in California are closed as a result.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, the Northeast would make up for snow very quickly. Powerful storm after storm after storm.



wat about for us NC people? should i expect atleast 1 snowstorm?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127520




just checking sst's seems a western shift with temps from MDR and carb

its early still keep an eye on it see whats up in another two months
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Oh no the Polar Vortex! Yikes! Looks as if Old Man Winter is going to make up for lost time over the coming weeks.

Yes, the Northeast would make up for snow very quickly. Powerful storm after storm after storm.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31409
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
o_O O_o



Oh no the Polar Vortex! Yikes! Looks as if Old Man Winter is going to make up for lost time over the coming weeks.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.