Damage losses and climate change

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:58 PM GMT on January 03, 2012

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During 2011, a series of violent tornado outbreaks hit the Plains and Southeast U.S., bringing an astonishing six billion-dollar disasters in a three-month period. The epic tornado onslaught killed 552 people and brought three of the five largest tornado outbreaks on record in a six-week period, including the largest and most expensive tornado outbreak in U.S. history--the April 25 - 28 Super Outbreak, which did $10.2 billion dollars in damage. Insured losses due to thunderstorms and tornadoes in the U.S. were at least $25 billion in 2011, more than double the previous record set in 2010. Damages from thunderstorms and tornadoes since 1980 have shown a clear increase since 1980 (Figure 2.) Disaster losses world-wide from weather-related natural disasters have also shown a significant increase in recent years, as has the number of these disasters. But how much of this is due to a change in the climate, and how much might be due to increases in population, wealth, and other factors?


Figure 1. Damage in Tuscaloosa, Alabama after the April 27, 2011 EF-4 tornado. Image credit: NOAA.


Not enough evidence to judge if climate change is affecting tornadoes
As I discussed last week in my post, 2011: Year of the Tornado, as far as we can tell, the number of damaging tornadoes has not increased in recent years, though the quality of the data set is to poor to know for sure. This is largely due to the fact that we never directly measure a tornado's winds--a tornado has to run over a building before we can make an EF-scale strength estimate, based on the damage. As tornado researcher Chuck Doswell said in a 2007 paper, "I see no near-term solution to the problem of detecting detailed spatial and temporal trends in the occurrence of tornadoes by using the observed data in its current form or in any form likely to evolve in the near future." My 2008 post, Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent?, discussed how a better way to assess how climate change may be affecting tornadoes is to look at how the large-scale environmental conditions favorable for tornado formation have changed through time. The most important ingredients for tornado formation are usually high atmospheric instability (as measured by the Convective Available Potential Energy, or CAPE), and high amounts of wind shear between the surface and 6 km altitude. Not enough work has been done on the subject to judge whether or not climate change is affecting severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, though.


Figure 2. Insured losses due to thunderstorms and tornadoes in the U.S. in 2011 dollars. Data taken from Property Claims Service MR NatCatSERVICE. Image credit: Munich Re.

Are the number of weather-related disasters increasing?
At a talk given last month at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco, Mark Bove of Munich Re insurance company examined trends in both damages and number of natural disasters since 1980. These numbers have shown significant increases since 1980. After we take out the increase in disasters reported due to an increasing population, greater wealth, and more advanced communications, is there a trend due to climate change? One way to check is to compare natural disasters due to geophysical events--earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions--to weather-related disasters. Geophysical disasters should remain relatively constant in number in a changing climate (unless sea level rise is occurring so rapidly that it is causing significant changes in stress on earthquake faults, something that is theoretically possible, but has not yet been observed.) If we then look at trends in the number of geophysical disasters versus weather-related disasters reported, it should give us an idea of how much of the recent increase in weather-related disasters may be due to climate change. Between 1980 and 2010, geophysical disasters increased by about a factor of 1.5, while weather-related disasters increased by a factor of 2.7 to 3.5 (Figure 3.) Bove stated that he thought weather-related disasters were likely subject to a higher increase in reporting rate than geophysical disasters, but not enough to account for the huge difference. Climate change was the likely reason for a large portion of the increase in weather-related disasters in recent years, he argued. His talk concluded, "there is quite some probability that natural catastrophe losses are driven already by human-caused climate change."


Figure 3. The number of natural disasters reported has increased markedly worldwide since 1980, particularly for weather-related disasters. Image credit: Munich Re.

However, this conclusion is controversial. A 2010 paper in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society by Netherlands researcher Laurens Bouwer titled, "Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change?", looked at 22 disaster loss studies world-wide, published between 2001 and 2010. All of the studies showed an increase in damages from weather-related disasters in recent decades. Fourteen of the 22 studies concluded that there were no trends in damage after correcting for increases in wealth and population, while eight of the studies did find upward trends even after such corrections, bringing up the question whether or not climate change could be responsible for the increased disaster losses. However, Bouwer found that "studies that did find increases after normalization did not fully correct for wealth and population increases, or they identified other sources of exposure increases or vulnerability changes or changing environmental conditions." In all 22 studies, increases in wealth and population were the "most important drivers for growing disaster losses." He concluded that human-caused climate change "so far has not had a significant impact on losses from natural disasters."

Using storm surge to evaluate damage normalization studies
Damage from landfalling storms can be used to estimate if hurricanes are growing stronger with time, but damage estimates must first be corrected to account for changes in wealth and population over time. A 2008 study by Pielke et al. found that although hurricane damages had been doubling every ten years in recent decades, there were no increases in normalized hurricane damages in the U.S. from 1900 - 2005. They used census and economic data to adjust for how increases in populations and wealth may have affected hurricane damages over time. However, Grinsted et al. (2012) questioned whether or not this was done correctly. They found that storm surge heights of U.S. hurricanes and tropical storms correlated very well with metrics that looked at storm intensity, when looking at many decades of data to see long-term trends. However, the researchers found that while short-term trends in normalized hurricane damage estimated by Pielke et al. (2008) did correlate well historical storm surges, these normalized damages had poor correlation with the storm surge record, when looking at decades-long time scales. This implies that the corrections were biased. Dr. Stephan Lewandowsky of the University of Western Australia makes the case that efforts such as the one done by Pielke et al. (2008) to normalize disaster losses are probably biased too low, since they only look at factors that tend to increase disaster losses with time, but ignore factors that tend to decrease disaster losses. These ignored factors include improvements in building codes, better weather forecasts allowing more preparation time, and improved fire-fighting ability. He writes, "Most normalization research to date has not accounted for those variables because they are extremely difficult to quantify. (And most researchers have been at pains to point that out; e.g., Neumayer & Barthel, 2011, pp. 23-24.) In effect, normalization research to date largely rests on the oddly inconsistent pair of assumptions that (a) we have built up enormous wealth during the 20th century but (b) did so without any technological advance whatsoever." For example, during a severe October 2013 windstorm that did over $1 billion in damage to France, England, Germany, the Netherlands, and Denmark, "The insured losses for the St. Jude's Day storm would have been significantly higher but for the accuracy in weather forecasting several days ahead of the storm's formation", said financial information services company Fitch Services, since "policyholders have more time to protect their property from potential damage, while government agencies, utility firms and transport companies can make logistical arrangements to minimize disruption to power supplies and transport networks."

Conclusion
Studies showing no increase in normalized damage from storms have high uncertainty, and it is possible that higher economic damages due to stronger storms is indeed occurring, though the current research does not show this. Looking at disasters losses to make an argument that climate change is affecting our weather is difficult, due to the rarity of extreme events, and the changes in wealth and population that also affect disaster losses. We are better off looking at how the atmosphere, oceans, and glaciers are changing to find evidence of climate change--and there is plenty of evidence there.

References
Tornado researcher Dr. Harold Brooks has a May 2012 op-ed in New Scientist that discusses the difficulty in predicting how climate change will impact tornadoes.

Bouwer, L, 2010, "Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change?", BAMS, January 2011, DOI:10.1175/2010BAMS3092.1

Doswell, C.A., 2007, "Small Sample Size and Data Quality Issues Illustrated Using Tornado Occurrence Data", E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology Vol 2, No. 5 (2007).

Del Genio, A.D., M-S Yao, and J. Jonas, 2007,
Will moist convection be stronger in a warmer climate?, Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L16703, doi: 10.1029/2007GL030525.

Grinsted, A., J. C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2012, "A homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923," PNAS 2012, doi:10.1073/pnas.1209542109

Marsh, P.T., H.E. Brooks, and D.J. Karoly, 2007, Assessment of the severe weather environment in North America simulated by a global climate model, Atmospheric Science Letters, 8, 100-106, doi: 10.1002/asl.159.

Neumayer, E. & Barthel, F. (2011). Normalizing economic loss from natural disasters: A global analysis Global Environmental Change, 21, 13-24.

Pielke et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900–2005", Natural Hazards Review, Volume 9, Issue 1, pp. 29-42.

Riemann-Campe, K., Fraedrich, K., and F. Lunkeit, 2009, Global climatology of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Convective Inhibition (CIN) in ERA-40 reanalysis, Atmospheric Research Volume 93, Issues 1-3, July 2009, Pages 534-545, 4th European Conference on Severe Storms.

Trapp, R.J., N.S. Diffenbaugh, H.E. Brooks, M.E. Baldwin, E.D. Robinson, and J.S. Pal, 2007, Severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing, PNAS 104 no. 50, 19719-19723, Dec. 11, 2007.

Jeff Masters

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490. wxmod
You guys who think it's cute to talk about beer here...tumwater's gonna be runnin dry. Sit in the new desert and dream. Stagnant pond water will be your beer.
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Quoting JeffMasters:
Since 2012 is off to a wacky weather start, ABC News is doing a 1-minute piece tonight on this winter's record
warmth and dryness on their 6:30pm EST newscast. I'll probably have a 10-second sound bite in there.

Jeff Masters


Incase you missed it... like me:
Link
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488. wxmod
Pretty warm night all over the USA and no rain falling nation wide. Time to plant cactus.
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Quoting :- 484. Xyrus2000
I just like the way you put that!!
Nothing to add.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It is trying rapidly, but probably won't bring anything but heavy rainfall to Madagascar.
Yeah lots of rain for Madagascar. Storm should go right over the southern half of the nation.
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ok im here lol. was lookin at the CPC precipitation and temperature 3 month outlooks and SPC forecast for this weekend. Saturday is my grandfathers birthday, he turning 69 i think:D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting Jedkins01:



Ahhh but I didn't say anything about Climate scientists doing that did I?
I said people, which could speak for anyone, in this case I'm speaking of people other than scientists, cause if you actually read my post you would have been able to acknowledge that my entire point in my comment was about those who are claiming that scientists are using the urban heat island effect to prove GW are wrong.

But do you want to get my opinion on if Climatologists directly try and hide the truth? I would say no, because there is no direct proof.
I try to think the best of people, so no, I'm not going to do a huge investigation on trying to uncover climatologists and other scientists to discover if they are really telling the truth about AGW. It would truly be a pathetic and mindset full of anger and opposition just to spend my career focus on "exposing" scientists who might be lying. I don't think it does exist, and if it does that would be pretty lame of them, and I have better and more important things to be concerned of in life.

However I have observed enough stubbornness and pride by those who stand by AGW to suggest that there is a bias toward AGW. However I am not putting a target on Climatologists back, or any other scientists who strongly stick by AGW. What I'm saying is that a bias might exist, not that for sure it does, but that it might. In the same way I believe some referees have a bias for some players and teams yet they try their best to give an honest call because that's what they love to do as their job. Its part of the human condition to be biased and proud, and if your someone very smart with a Doctorate in Climatology who has done a large amount of research for AGW, it would certainly be hard not to be proud and have somewhat of a bias. I have often succumbed to a bias myself and I'm not exactly among the worlds brightest minds and don't posses such credentials.


To believe scientists can't be influenced by a bias even a strong one at times like the rest of us is choosing to believe in foolish philosophies about human beings that don't reflect the realities of life and actual human behavior. Climatologists are not the gods of science. I respect their research and opinions and they certainly have gathered lots of scary evidence about how humans have negatively affected the earth. However however I don't necessarily agree with all the conclusions they draw from their research. Yes, I am allowed to disagree without being a fool. Science is about studying the unknown, lets not forget that.


Sure there is bias in science. But the thing is, bias in science means wrong answers. If it is an active area of research, such biases and errors are found pretty quickly. There is very very little research that does not build upon the research of others, so any research built upon previously biased results or incorrect research reveals itself as so in short order.

That's one of the great things about science. You can't just say whatever you want, cook up some numbers , and present it as truth. Even if it gets rubber-stamped through some journal, eventually someone is going to try to use that research and find that it doesn't hold water. Science journals have plenty of back and forth on research and results, corrections, retractions, modifications, etc. .

Everyone is entitled to their own opinions. But scientific research is on a whole different level. When you disagree with a peer-reviewed result, you need more than just a gut feeling to back up your argument. If you think a result is biased, you better bring a solid case demonstrating that bias. If you disagree with a conclusion, you better have the data to show why it is wrong.

The scientific process inherently removes bias as time goes on. If it didn't, pretty much all of science today would have as much credibility as mythological texts and would certainly not have nearly the predictive power it has.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1655
..trust your feeling's Luke, use da Force!!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Noting 472. Jedkins01
This is not a factor of remote heat islands!
I can not and would never feel qualified to comment on other areas of the northern hemisphere but:-
The facts are that we in Europe have been having a very unusual winter as of the beginning of January 2012
I hasten to apologise to Jenkins and anybody else if I have caused or implied any indication that you may have seen the potential of global warming and other factors as being connected with as you say "heat islands,"
All I can say in my amateur status, is that I have been observing in remote areas of Europe unusually high winter temperatures and a lack of snow, ranging form the Alps to the Iberian peninsular.
Although this is not yet by any means a trend, we must consider it a potential indicator of possible warming features that should not be dismissed.
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Quoting bappit:

Yes, really.

Edit: I said the same thing (in reverse order) a couple of days ago with the cold air in Florida. High amplitude waves in the jet stream cause cold air to go south and warm air to go north. Pick whatever order you want to say it in.
Maybe if you meant it also goes east, west, south, and every direction in between it would make a little bit more sense. Cold air does not solely go south and warm air does not solely go north. High pressure moves toward low pressure. Air flows down pressure gradients. While temperature influences air pressure, it is not the only factor, as water vapor also plays a large role.

Also, the coriolis force and centrifugal force prevents air masses from behaving the way you describe them. Not to mention it would be the opposite in the southern hemisphere.

I know I'm being a stickler with the technicalities, but I've seen you post it a few times now and just thought I'd remind everyone.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Looks like something's forming between Africa and Madagascar.

Link

It is trying rapidly, but probably won't bring anything but heavy rainfall to Madagascar.
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Quoting hydrus:
Of course, but does not justify being a greedy fricken pig. Not sayin they all are, but there is a lot of greed.


I noticed Nea's 10,000 for this and I'm not surprised.

How idealistic you guys must be! In the real world, greed, for lack of a better word, is the driving force behind most of the advancements mankind has made. People are driven to excel by the desire to better their position in this world. Success in this world equals money. Money equals freedom. Freedom from want for yourself and your loved ones. Freedom to travel. Freedom to practice philanthropy. Turns out that non-successful people make lousy philanthopists.
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Looks like something's trying to form between Africa and Madagascar.

Link
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Quoting TomTaylor:
No, not really.

Yes, really.

Edit: I said the same thing (in reverse order) a couple of days ago with the cold air in Florida. High amplitude waves in the jet stream cause cold air to go south and warm air to go north. Pick whatever order you want to say it in.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6157
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Please remove this graphic, it is highly disturbing to me.

lol. :P
lol
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22631
ok been busy 2day stopin in 2 say HI. be back round here maybe after 0300Z
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting presslord:


Did Will Smith say that?!?!?!?! I've always attributed it to my ex-wife...
llol
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Quoting presslord:



well....yes....but....I'm sure it's been cold somewhere, too....thus categorically disproving whatever point you were trying to make...

Press.
I am only the living witness to this its been +21/c in my town today and there is no sign of rain or cold. In England we only had 3 days below freezing in the period up to New Year. I am sure a lot of other European bloggers will confirm this.
I don't know what is the norm and a lot of people will say its an anomaly but I don't think so with some of my 60 plus years I have never experienced a winter like this!
Most ot the bloggers are from the US and their contributions are invaluable, being the people on the ground! With the droughts and the unusual variations this winter so far, we must think,'is this going to be a trend, or a feature; of the future?
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Quoting PlazaRed:
431. Jedkins01
"Ahhh but I didn't say anything about Climate scientists doing that did I?
I said people, which could speak for anyone, in this case I'm speaking of people other than scientists, cause if you actually read my post you would have been able to acknowledge that my entire point in my comment was about those who are claiming that scientists are using the urban heat island effect to prove GW are wrong."

Hi I am on the top of a remote mountain in a remote area of southern Europe. It is21/c outside today and it hasn't rained for4 7 months. I eagerly await your explanation!!
Ps There are no urban areas for more than 60 miles around me!
PS. Jenkins, I really appreciate some of your posts, without yourself and others I would be still stumbling in the smogs of bewilderment over weather and whether it is weather we are interpreting or whether we are a simple victim of its consequences?
Que Sera, Sera!



I'm sorry, I'm not sure I understand your post.
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Quoting bappit:
Warm air goes north, cold air goes south.
No, not really.
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Peaceful tonight?
We've got antarctic ice shelves fragmenting and floating out to sea, we've got humans debating over CO2 quotas, we've got a few arguments over the powers that be and their powers?
I don't want us as an entity to become an also ran along with the dinosaurs and other extinct species!
I don't want us to become a part of history for some extraterrestrial to analysis!" I am a sentient being"!With more than a passing interest in the future of planet Earth.
Sorry for being a pain! but I do feel I have an interest in the place where I was conceived.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Yikes. Are these marsh fires common in Texas? Last winter I recall a forest grass fire in Oklahoma that hit just before they got 10 inches of snowfall from that Groundhog Day blizzard!



Evening Astro, all. We've had marsh fires before but they've been more numerous since the drought started of course. Apparently it didn't take any wind to keep this one going. Forecast calling for more fog tonight. But like your blizzard, we may get a good soaking coming up. This is the most optimistic the locals have been on our rain chances in a while. They hadn't been buying into the model showing this. So fingers crossed. Maybe it will cut down on the fires. And whatever has been making me sneeze my head off! Sorry was zonked out on cold meds all day. Lol.


...More dense fog is expected to develop late tonight across Southeast Texas tonight. Temperatures will drop into the mid 50s. Skies will be mostly cloudy with isolated showers possible.

An upper-level disturbance will bring a 30% coverage of light rain Friday under mostly cloudy skies. Afternoon highs will warm to near-70 with breezy south-southwesterly winds.

A warm weekend is forecasted with highs in the mid 70s both Saturday and Sunday. A slight 20% coverage of light rain can be expected both days. Skies will be partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Lows will be near 60.

A strong upper-level low will move across Texas Monday. This will generate a near 100% coverage of rainfall in Southeast Texas. Model data shows between 2-3 inches of rainfall. Temperatures will only rise into the middle 60s after a low near-60.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Hey, I was trying to make no point; I was merely highlighting the odd warmth and attendant lack of snow across areas usually a bit more more Arctic by the end of the first week of January.

In the words of Will Smith: Don't start nuthin', there won't be nuthin'... ;-)


Did Will Smith say that?!?!?!?! I've always attributed it to my ex-wife...
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Warm air goes north, cold air goes south.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6157
Quoting presslord:



well....yes....but....I'm sure it's been cold somewhere, too....thus categorically disproving whatever point you were trying to make...

Hey, I was trying to make no point; I was merely highlighting the odd warmth and attendant lack of snow across areas usually a bit more more Arctic by the end of the first week of January.

In the words of Will Smith: Don't start nuthin', there won't be nuthin'... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13800
Quoting Neapolitan:
Some amazing heat still hanging around today. In South Dakota, Aberdeen reached 63, a temperature 41 degrees above normal, and one that beat the previous record for the day by 17 degrees (and made for the town's warmest January temperature ever); and Rapid City reached 70, 33 degrees above the normal high of 37. Meanwhile, Minot, ND, got up to 60, beating the previous record by 10 degrees and the daily normal by 40. These are just a handful; well over 100 record highs were reached today across the snowless northern tier of states.

The cold will doubtless return, as many of the models are showing. But as others have noted, we've already reached the typical coldest part of the winter; if things don't start turning snowy and cold soon, spring will be here before snow packs build, and that's going to bring on a whole different set of problems come summer:

Uh-oh

Uh-oh

Uh-oh



well....yes....but....I'm sure it's been cold somewhere, too....thus categorically disproving whatever point you were trying to make...
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Some amazing heat still hanging around today. In South Dakota, Aberdeen reached 63, a temperature 41 degrees above normal, and one that beat the previous record for the day by 17 degrees (and made for the town's warmest January temperature ever); and Rapid City reached 70, 33 degrees above the normal high of 37. Meanwhile, Minot, ND, got up to 60, beating the previous record by 10 degrees and the daily normal by 40. These are just a handful; well over 100 record highs were reached today across the snowless northern tier of states.

The cold will doubtless return, as many of the models are showing. But as others have noted, we've already reached the typical coldest part of the winter; if things don't start turning snowy and cold soon, spring will be here before snow packs build, and that's going to bring on a whole different set of problems come summer:

Uh-oh

Uh-oh

Uh-oh
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13800
Quoting hydrus:
Here ya go. can ya smellit, huh....CAN YA.?



.....aaaaahhhhhhhhhhh..............
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Please remove this graphic, it is highly disturbing to me.

lol. :P
Would you like a battle of vodka instead?
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Quoting hydrus:
Here ya go. can ya smellit, huh....CAN YA.?

Please remove this graphic, it is highly disturbing to me.

lol. :P
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Quoting presslord:


Hook me up, Sweetheart!!!!
Here ya go. can ya smellit, huh....CAN YA.?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22631
Quoting hydrus:
..whiner...... YOu NEED BEER.!


Hook me up, Sweetheart!!!!
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Quoting presslord:


Please remove this graphic! It just upsets me...
..whiner...... YOu NEED BEER.!
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22631
The Fujiwara effect makes me itch.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Quoting hydrus:
The CMC now has this system a bit deeper then the last run, and with another low to the NNW. If this happens, could get a little wind action. Plus I wonder how the two lows might interact.


Please remove this graphic! It just upsets me...
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Quoting Levi32:


All rain.


Levi:-
Its January?
Do you want to forgo your studies and enter the world of the debaters of tomorrow?
Comprehension is for the enlightened. Speculation is for the inquisitive?
Thanks for your valued analysis over the years.
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The CMC now has this system a bit deeper then the last run, and with another low to the NNW. If this happens, could get a little wind action. Plus I wonder how the two lows might interact.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22631
Oh "well" Hasta manana?
Until tomorrow, thanks for your comments, thanks for your knowledge and thanks to you all, for being you!
I can only say how much your collective blog input is truly valued by us on these dark winter nights!
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Quoting Levi32:


All rain.


Yeah, the only place that has the potential to snow looks to be New England, and the extreme interior portion at that. Could be looking at some Severe Weather across the South and Southeast next week with this coming system. At the very least, a heavy rain event.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

+10,000,000
Thank you for my 10,000,000. Can I have that in $50, and $100,s please.?...jk........really...jk..:) :)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22631
Quoting Levi32:


All rain.

I will gladly take it..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22631
Quoting hydrus:
Of course, but does not justify being a greedy fricken pig.

+10,000,000
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13800
Amazing what no snow on the ground will do for you with warm air advection in the middle of winter:

http://www.kcci.com/weather/30135737/detail.html

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/features/ cat.php?day=2012-01-05

It's not just Iowa... a wide swath of the central and northern plains are breaking records by at least 5-10F.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3325
Quoting hydrus:
Severe weather.? Nor,Easter.?


All rain.

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Severe weather.? Nor,Easter.?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22631
Quoting hydrus:
I like when you post the models Keep. Especially the one up top..Happy New Year by tha way.:)
happy new year to you as well
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431. Jedkins01
"Ahhh but I didn't say anything about Climate scientists doing that did I?
I said people, which could speak for anyone, in this case I'm speaking of people other than scientists, cause if you actually read my post you would have been able to acknowledge that my entire point in my comment was about those who are claiming that scientists are using the urban heat island effect to prove GW are wrong."

Hi I am on the top of a remote mountain in a remote area of southern Europe. It is21/c outside today and it hasn't rained for4 7 months. I eagerly await your explanation!!
Ps There are no urban areas for more than 60 miles around me!
PS. Jenkins, I really appreciate some of your posts, without yourself and others I would be still stumbling in the smogs of bewilderment over weather and whether it is weather we are interpreting or whether we are a simple victim of its consequences?
Que Sera, Sera!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I like when you post the models Keep. Especially the one up top..Happy New Year by tha way.:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22631
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Until the driving force of the Earth is changed from the accumulation of Wealth and Power by Men and Nation's, NOTHING will change in the big scheme of things.


Good luck with that.

A mans reach should exceed his grasp. If not for the "driving" forces" we'd still be living in caves.
Of course, but does not justify being a greedy fricken pig. Not sayin they all are, but there is a lot of greed.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22631
Quoting presslord:
Can someone post a link to an ABC feed from somewhere? My cable at home is out....again...because Comcast is about as useless as ice in an igloo....many thanks!!
Dr. Masters spot was about 5 seconds long.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22631
Until the driving force of the Earth is changed from the accumulation of Wealth and Power by Men and Nation's, NOTHING will change in the big scheme of things.


Good luck with that.

A mans reach should exceed his grasp. If not for the "driving" forces" we'd still be living in caves.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron