2011: Year of the Tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:25 PM GMT on December 27, 2011

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The year 2011 will forever be known as Year of the Tornado in the U.S. A series of violent severe storms swept across the Plains and Southeast U.S., bringing an astonishing six billion-dollar disasters in a three-month period. The epic tornado onslaught killed 552 people and caused $25 billion in damage. Three of the five largest tornado outbreaks on record hit in a six-week period, including the largest and most expensive tornado outbreak in U.S. history--the $10.2 billion dollar Southeast U.S. Super Outbreak, April 25 - 28. Even more stunning was the $9 billion late-May tornado outbreak that brought an EF-5 tornado to Joplin, Missouri. The Joplin tornado did $3 billion in damage and killed 158 people--the largest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history, and the most expensive tornado in world history. In a year of amazing weather extremes, this year's tornado season ranks as the top U.S. weather story of 2011.


Video 1. Remarkable video of the tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama on April 27, 2011. Fast forward to minute four to see the worst of the storm.



Figure 1. A truly frightening radar image: multiple hook echoes from at least ten supercell thunderstorms cover Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee during the height of the April 27, 2011 Super Outbreak. A multi-hour animation is available here.

A record six EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
Six top-end EF-5 tornadoes hit the U.S. in 2011, tying this year with 1974 for the greatest number of these most destructive tornadoes. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The April 27, 2011 Rainsville/Dekalb County, Alabama tornado (26 killed, 34 mile path length.)

5) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (158 killed, 14 mile path length.)

6) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.


Figure 3. EF-5 damage from the April 27, 2011 Neshoba tornado in Mississippi. The tornado was so powerful that it dug out the ground to a depth of two feet over an area 25 - 50 yards wide and several hundred yards long. Image credit: NWS.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release, the NOAA Extreme Weather 2011 page, and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The tornado death toll of 552 in 2011 ties 1936 as the second deadliest year for tornadoes in U.S. history. Only 1925, with 794 fatalities, was deadlier. In 1936, violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During the 1930s, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes may have killed tens of thousands of people if we did not have our modern tornado modern warning system.


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2011. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2011. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2010. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III, and updated by Harold Brooks in 2011.

- April 2011 had the most tornadoes of any month in U.S. history--753. The previous record was 542, set in May 2003. The previous busiest April was in 1974, with 267 tornadoes. The average number of tornadoes for the month of April during the past decade was 161, and the 30-year average for April tornadoes was 135.

- On April 27, 199 confirmed tornadoes touched down. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record (note, though, that reliable records for number of tornadoes only extend back in time to about the early 1990s):

- The April 25 - 28, 2011 Super tornado outbreak, with 343 tornadoes, is now the largest tornado outbreak in U.S. history. The previous record (3 days or less duration) was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- The May 22 - 27, 2011 tornado outbreak, with 180 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 4th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes.

- The April 14 - 16, 2011 tornado outbreak, with 177 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the second largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record, and 5th largest outbreak of six or fewer days duration.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 158 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 7th deadliest in history. The $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in world history.

- Preliminary damage estimates from Munich Re insurance company put 2011's insured losses due to U.S. thunderstorms and tornadoes at $25 billion, more than double the previous record set in 2010.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 2nd place behind 1973 for greatest number of tornadoes greater than EF-0 strength (EF-1, EF-2, EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 strength, Figure 5.)


Figure 5. Number of EF-1, EF-2, EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The total shown for 2011 is preliminary and uses unofficial numbers through November 17, but 2011 now ranks in 2nd place behind 1973. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of tornadoes stronger than EF-0, implying that climate change, as yet, is not having a noticeable impact on U.S. tornadoes. However, statistics of tornado frequency and intensity are highly uncertain. Major changes in the rating process occurred in the mid-1970s (when all tornadoes occurring prior to about 1975 were retrospectively rated), and again in 2001, when scientists began rating tornadoes lower because of engineering concerns and unintended consequences of National Weather Service policy changes. Also, beginning in 2007, NOAA switched from the F-scale to the EF-scale for rating tornado damage, causing additional problems with attempting to assess if tornadoes are changing over time. Data provided by Harold Brooks, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory.

Other posts looking back at the remarkable weather events of 2011
Deadliest weather disaster of 2011: the East African drought
Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?
Wettest year on record in Philadelphia; 2011 sets record for wet/dry extremes in U.S.
Hurricane Irene: New York City dodges a potential storm surge mega-disaster

The NWS posted a summary of the records set during the tornado season of 2011 in February 2012.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
Tornado - Pine Apple,AL (EarlBcom)
Tornado just south of Pine Apple, AL on around 5:40pm. This storm was a part of the Alabama tornado outbreak on April 15, 2011. earlb.com VIDEO - See video of tornado at earlb.com
Tornado - Pine Apple,AL
As Is (teach50)
My husband and I were visiting my parents in Birmingham, Alabama. We decided to take a day trip to Tuscaloosa to see the damage from the April 27 tornado. It was a sight that I will never forget. Blocks and blocks of flattened houses and stores. This area has not been touched in 2 months. It was so moving that I started to cry thinking of all these poor people.
As Is

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312. Patrap
4:48 AM GMT on December 29, 2011
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

..click image for Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128270
311. Patrap
4:45 AM GMT on December 29, 2011
IO062011 - Tropical Cyclone (>64 kt) THANE

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128270
310. GeoffreyWPB
4:44 AM GMT on December 29, 2011
---
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11151
309. SPLbeater
4:38 AM GMT on December 29, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thane is rapidly intensifying:



Probably around 90-100 mph right now (leaning more towards 90 mph).


how about 95, lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
308. GeoffreyWPB
4:29 AM GMT on December 29, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
.."Once I thought I saw you, in a crowded Hazy blog..dancing on the Light, from Star to Star"..


Please don't talk about blogs tonight.
Please don't talk about Climate Change.
Please don't talk about being true
and all the trouble we've been through.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11151
307. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:29 AM GMT on December 29, 2011
Thane is rapidly intensifying:



Probably around 90-100 mph right now (leaning more towards 90 mph).
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32025
306. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:28 AM GMT on December 29, 2011
uh-oh.. the Dvorak number went up to 4.5 on the iMD satellite imagery. =/



© India Meteorological Department
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305. SPLbeater
4:17 AM GMT on December 29, 2011
now that looks pretty
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
304. sunlinepr
4:15 AM GMT on December 29, 2011
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
303. Patrap
4:14 AM GMT on December 29, 2011
.."Once I thought I saw you, in a crowded Hazy blog..dancing on the Light, from Star to Star"..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128270
302. GeoffreyWPB
3:57 AM GMT on December 29, 2011
Quoting caneswatch:


I didn't say anything about a girl LOL


Lol...Think you will like this...

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301. caneswatch
3:55 AM GMT on December 29, 2011
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


What's her name? :)


I didn't say anything about a girl LOL
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
300. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
5:30 AM IST December 29 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Orange Message

At 0:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-southwestward and lays centered near 12.3N 83.0E, about 300 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 480 km north-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around Friday morning. However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -86C. Associated intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 13.5N and west of 84.5E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The central pressure of the system is at 980 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Storm surge of about 1 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Chennai and Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.

The system is being tracked by DWR Chennai since 1000 UTC, yesterday. Hence determinaton of location and intensity is of high confidential.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 27-28C over the region. It is relatively less towards Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coast becoming 26-27C. The ocean thermal energy is less than 50 kj/cm2 around the system center and near Tamil Nadu and north Sri Lanka coast. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 5. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction models predictions, it is expected to remain in phase 5 during next four days. The phase 5 is favorable for intensification.

The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N and hence helps in westward movement of the system. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is increased during last 6 hours and presently between 10-15 knots around the system center today.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

6 HRS: 12.0S 82.3E - 65-70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.0N 81.5E - 60-65 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.0N 78.6E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 12.0N 75.8E - 25 knots (Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
Quoting caneswatch:


50 here out in Royal Palm Beach, supposed to drop to 43. I think the comforter will be used tonight.


What's her name? :)
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Beautiful evening in Lake Worth...53 degrees...Nice walk with the pup. Just perfect weather!


50 here out in Royal Palm Beach, supposed to drop to 43. I think the comforter will be used tonight.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553


US warns Iran not to disrupt oil route


Wednesday, December 28, 2011
(12-28) 08:14 PST DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) --

A spokeswoman for the U.S. Navy's 5th fleet is warning Iran that any disruption of traffic flowing though the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil route, "will not be tolerated."

Iran's navy chief warned earlier Wednesday that the Islamic Republic was ready and willing to close the strategic waterway if the West imposes news sanctions targeting Tehran's oil exports over the country's suspect nuclear program.

"Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will not be tolerated," said Fleet spokeswoman Lt. Rebecca Rebarich.

She said the U.S. Navy is "always ready to counter malevolent actions to ensure freedom of navigation."

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2 011/12/28/international/i081431S62.DTL#ixzz1htHQlU zm
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
Why Russian scientists have listed the Siberian earthquake as a 9.5 event
Posted on December 28, 2011
December 28, 2011 – MOSCOW – The intensity of a powerful earthquake that rocked the southeastern part of Siberia on Tuesday reached 9.5, Russian Emergency Situations Minister Sergei Shoigu said at a teleconference in the early hours of Wednesday. “The earthquake’s intensity in the epicenter has been estimated at 9.5. The main threat will come tomorrow morning. As soon as the people wake up, they will see cracks in the walls, stoves, and chimneys,” he said. It was reported earlier that an earthquake reaching 8-9 in the epicenter had been recorded in the Kaa-Khemsky district of Tyva 100 kilometers east of Kyzyl at a depth of 10 kilometers at 7:22 p.m. Moscow time on Tuesday. The earthquake’s magnitude reached 6.7. The tremors were felt in Tyva, Khakasia, the Krasnoyarsk territory and the Irkutsk region. Preliminary reports indicate that the quake did not cause casualties and significant destruction. The population of the Kaa-Khemsky district is about 12,700 people. Emergency Situations Ministry experts are examining communities now. -KYIV


The Russian earthquake scale:

The Russian system measures earthquake intensity and the 9.5 of the Siberian quake does not reflect magnitude. The Medvedev-Sponheuer-Karnik scale, also known as the MSK or MSK-64, is a macroseismic intensity scale used to evaluate the severity of ground shaking on the basis of observed effects in an area of the earthquake occurrence. The scale was first proposed by Sergei Medvedev (USSR), Wilhelm Sponheuer (East Germany), and Vít Kárník (Czechoslovakia) in 1964. It was based on the experiences being available in the early 1960s from the application of the Modified Mercalli scale and the 1953 version of the Medvedev scale, known also as the GEOFIAN scale. With minor modifications in the mid-1970s and early 1980s, the MSK scale became widely used in Europe and the USSR. In early 1990s, the European Seismological Commission (ESC) used many of the principles formulated in the MSK in the development of the European Macroseismic Scale, which is now a de facto standard for evaluation of seismic intensity in European countries. MSK-64 is still being used in India, Israel, Russia, and throughout the Commonwealth of Independent States. The Medvedev-Sponheuer-Karnik scale is somewhat similar to the Modified Mercalli (MM) scale used in the United States. The MSK scale has 12 intensity degrees expressed in Roman numerals (to prevent the use of decimals). –Wikipedia
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
so TC 04S is forecast to make 90 knots? sweet
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Beautiful evening in Lake Worth...53 degrees...Nice walk with the pup. Just perfect weather!
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293. beell
The Spring Equinox is on March 20th this year. Give or take a month or two...
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16613
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It is visible, you can see it right? ;)

Don't be smart to me mister. >:)
jk
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291. beell
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Like Neapolitan said earlier that tornado season is just 2 months away give or take. Amazing! I'm willing to go out on a limb and say this going to be another devasting tornado year coming in 2012 as it looks like the same perameters are going to be in place again thanks to this nagging La-Nina.


Give or take what? A month? two months?

1950-2010 Tornadoes per Month (E)F1 to (E)F5 Only
Long Term Monthly Max/Min and Quartiles

February March April May
Link
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16613
Anylyzing, the best way to describe this winter is JUST WEIRD.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Models are now just giving FL a glancing blow from the cold next week. What a bummer as I was hoping for a nice cold snap down here.





The Euro hasn't backed down on the coming cold for Florida. In fact, the GFS is coming more inline with the King(though not completely yet). Though it has backed off from the Blockbuster noreaster/superstorm it was showing in it's 00z run this morning(yet with a good chunk-sized southern stream impulse, it can't be totally ruled out).
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Quoting Grothar:
3rd visible. Lot of cold cloud tops.


Not visible, but it's lovely colored infrared.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It is visible, you can see it right? ;)


I'm getting lolled!
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Quoting Articuno:

That's not visible??? lol

It is visible, you can see it right? ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32025
Quoting Grothar:
3rd visible. Lot of cold cloud tops.



uuuh...infrared? lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
3rd visible. Lot of cold cloud tops.

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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11151
Quoting Grothar:
2ND Visible;


That's not visible??? lol
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Drought relief does not look promising .
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21192
Quoting Ameister12:
Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Thane is getting very close to India.

India is a very populated country, Although luckily it seems to be south of the populated city of Chennai, however very near to the coast of Kumbakonam. Let's just hope its not a India version of Washi.
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2ND Visible;

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Sat pic of the blob in the East Pacific..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21192
1st visible
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
Thane starting to look a little ragged on satellite...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21192
Quoting Ameister12:
Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Thane is getting very close to India.
A little good news from the public advisory...Tropical cyclone (tc) 06b (thane), located approximately 195 nm east- southeast of chennai, India, has tracked westward at 07 knots over the past six hours. The current position is based, with high confidence, on radar imagery from chennai, India. The intensity estimate of 75 knots is consistent with Dvorak T-number values from three reporting agencies ranging from 65 to 77 knots. Recent animated water vapor satellite imagery shows deep convection persisting along the western and southern peripheries of well- defined low level circulation center (LLCC) evident in a 281554z metop-a microwave satellite pass. Radar reflectivity data indicates a slightly elongated low to mid-level eye feature has developed. Tc 06b continues to track westward under the steering influence of the subtropical ridge (str) positioned to the north and the cyclone and should continue tracking westward until making landfall after tau 24. The cyclone lies just to the west of an upper-level anticyclone. Overall, the upper-level environment is marginal, with favorable radial outflow but increasing vertical wind shear. The cyclone is also moving over waters with lower heat content that should, along with increasing vertical wind shear, hold any further intensification to a minimum and produce slight weakening prior to landfall. After landfall, interaction with rough terrain well inland from the relatively flat coastal area will lead to steady dissipation. The numerical model guidance remains in good overall agreement with the current forecast. Maximum significant wave height at 281800z is 22 feet. Next warnings at 290300z, 290900z, 291500z and 292100z.//

Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21192
Oh how the slightest wind shift makes me start to analize everything, lol(look near 170E)


Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
273. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #41
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER GRANT (04U)
11:00 AM EST December 29 2011
===================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Low, Former Grant (1001 hPa) located at 14.4S 139.2E, or 250 km west southwest of Cape Keerweer and 350 km southwest of Weipa has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving east at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0/1.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant is no longer expected to develop into a tropical cyclone. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant will continue moving east towards the west coast of Cape York Peninsula as a monsoon low.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is now current for Heavy Rainfall, Damaging Wind Gusts and Abnormally High Tides for areas north of Karumba to Cardwell.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================

The Cyclone WATCH from Thursday Island to Gilbert River Mouth has been cancelled.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 14.3S 140.7E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 14.4S 142.4E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 14.6S 146.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 15.0S 150.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=====================

Dvorak analysis was not possible, though a FT of 1.0 was applied based on nearby surface observations.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant is situated in a moderately sheared environment with CIMMS indicating approximately 15-25 knots of shear across the system. The low level centre is now visible on satellite imagery and most of the convection now appears to be well removed from the centre.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant will continue to move east towards the west coast of Cape York Peninsula under the influence of an upper trough moving across eastern Australia. Redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is now deemed a low chance due to a combination of shear created by the upper trough and dry air affecting the system from the south.

There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it re-intensifies.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Thane is getting very close to India.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
Quoting docrod:


Should be on PBS.ORG on Thursday. They delay online stories by at least 24 hours typically.

Here is a previous JM appearance in May ...
Link

Thanks!
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11151
Quoting Ameister12:
I missed Dr. Masters on PBS Newshour. :(

Is there any way I can watch it?


Should be on PBS.ORG on Thursday. They delay online stories by at least 24 hours typically.

Here is a previous JM appearance in May ...
Link
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268. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 04-20112012
4:00 AM RET December 29 2011
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 04 (999 hPa) located at 12.2S 86.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================

90 NM radius from the center extending up to 180 NM in the southwestern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 12.2S 84.6E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 12.3S 82.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 13.4S 78.5E - 50 knots (Forte TempĂŞte Tropicale)
72 HRS: 15.6S 75.8E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

The low level circulation is still on the eastern border of the cloud mass of deep convection. Lower levels supply is currently good on the two faces of the system. However, system is still undergoing a moderate upper level east vertical wind shear. The upper levels constraint should progressively weaken within the next 36-48 hours. At 48 hours, an upper outflow channel should set up poleward, a second outflow should temporarily set up equatorward on Saturday and Sunday. Intensification should also remain moderate within the next 48 hours but shold heighten beyond. At the end of the forecast range (beginning of next week) upper levels environmental conditions should become less favorable (strengtening of the upper level wind shear).

Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for a west track over the northern periphery of the subtropical high pressures of low and mid-troposphere, then more southwest track under the combined effect of the weakening of the subtropical high pressures of low troposphere at the arrival of a trough in the south.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Depression 04 will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Like Neapolitan said earlier that tornado season is just 2 months away give or take. Amazing! I'm willing to go out on a limb and say this going to be another devasting tornado year coming in 2012 as it looks like the same perameters are going to be in place again thanks to this nagging La-Nina.

I may have to agree – The main factors that made this tornado so devastating were 1.) Weak La Nina/Neutral conditions 2.) A very hot southwest with cold in the northeast and 3.) above average temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico.

This upcoming year, Sea Surface Temperatures will probably be above average, it may eventually get cold across the northern states (northwest especially) and we will have a hot south-central/southwest (we already do). While it won't be as devastating like this year, I'm willing to bet it won't be one of our friendlier years...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32025
I missed Dr. Masters on PBS Newshour. :(

Is there any way I can watch it?
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
265. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
2:30 AM IST December 29 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Orange Message

At 18:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and lays centered near 12.5N 83.5E, about 350 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 500 km north-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around Friday morning. However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -84C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.5N to 15.0N and 81.0E to 85.7E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with a central pressure of 980 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
Quoting presslord:
Jeff did a fine job!!!

Maybe people went to watch Dr. M on the news? Any reviews?
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6022
#261 Cold air goes south, warm air goes north.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6022
262. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F
9:00 AM FST December 29 2011
===================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02F (1002 hPa) located at 17.1S 168.9W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared and visible imagery with animation and latest ASCAT pass. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization has not improved significantly and convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation is from surface to 850 HPA. The system lies under an upper diffluent region and highly sheared environment.

Global models have picked up the system and are slowly moving it southeastward with little intensification.

The potential for this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours is LOW.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.