2011: Year of the Tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:25 PM GMT on December 27, 2011

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The year 2011 will forever be known as Year of the Tornado in the U.S. A series of violent severe storms swept across the Plains and Southeast U.S., bringing an astonishing six billion-dollar disasters in a three-month period. The epic tornado onslaught killed 552 people and caused $25 billion in damage. Three of the five largest tornado outbreaks on record hit in a six-week period, including the largest and most expensive tornado outbreak in U.S. history--the $10.2 billion dollar Southeast U.S. Super Outbreak, April 25 - 28. Even more stunning was the $9 billion late-May tornado outbreak that brought an EF-5 tornado to Joplin, Missouri. The Joplin tornado did $3 billion in damage and killed 158 people--the largest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history, and the most expensive tornado in world history. In a year of amazing weather extremes, this year's tornado season ranks as the top U.S. weather story of 2011.


Video 1. Remarkable video of the tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama on April 27, 2011. Fast forward to minute four to see the worst of the storm.



Figure 1. A truly frightening radar image: multiple hook echoes from at least ten supercell thunderstorms cover Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee during the height of the April 27, 2011 Super Outbreak. A multi-hour animation is available here.

A record six EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
Six top-end EF-5 tornadoes hit the U.S. in 2011, tying this year with 1974 for the greatest number of these most destructive tornadoes. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The April 27, 2011 Rainsville/Dekalb County, Alabama tornado (26 killed, 34 mile path length.)

5) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (158 killed, 14 mile path length.)

6) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.


Figure 3. EF-5 damage from the April 27, 2011 Neshoba tornado in Mississippi. The tornado was so powerful that it dug out the ground to a depth of two feet over an area 25 - 50 yards wide and several hundred yards long. Image credit: NWS.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release, the NOAA Extreme Weather 2011 page, and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The tornado death toll of 552 in 2011 ties 1936 as the second deadliest year for tornadoes in U.S. history. Only 1925, with 794 fatalities, was deadlier. In 1936, violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During the 1930s, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes may have killed tens of thousands of people if we did not have our modern tornado modern warning system.


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2011. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2011. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2010. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III, and updated by Harold Brooks in 2011.

- April 2011 had the most tornadoes of any month in U.S. history--753. The previous record was 542, set in May 2003. The previous busiest April was in 1974, with 267 tornadoes. The average number of tornadoes for the month of April during the past decade was 161, and the 30-year average for April tornadoes was 135.

- On April 27, 199 confirmed tornadoes touched down. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record (note, though, that reliable records for number of tornadoes only extend back in time to about the early 1990s):

- The April 25 - 28, 2011 Super tornado outbreak, with 343 tornadoes, is now the largest tornado outbreak in U.S. history. The previous record (3 days or less duration) was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- The May 22 - 27, 2011 tornado outbreak, with 180 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 4th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes.

- The April 14 - 16, 2011 tornado outbreak, with 177 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the second largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record, and 5th largest outbreak of six or fewer days duration.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 158 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 7th deadliest in history. The $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in world history.

- Preliminary damage estimates from Munich Re insurance company put 2011's insured losses due to U.S. thunderstorms and tornadoes at $25 billion, more than double the previous record set in 2010.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 2nd place behind 1973 for greatest number of tornadoes greater than EF-0 strength (EF-1, EF-2, EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 strength, Figure 5.)


Figure 5. Number of EF-1, EF-2, EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The total shown for 2011 is preliminary and uses unofficial numbers through November 17, but 2011 now ranks in 2nd place behind 1973. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of tornadoes stronger than EF-0, implying that climate change, as yet, is not having a noticeable impact on U.S. tornadoes. However, statistics of tornado frequency and intensity are highly uncertain. Major changes in the rating process occurred in the mid-1970s (when all tornadoes occurring prior to about 1975 were retrospectively rated), and again in 2001, when scientists began rating tornadoes lower because of engineering concerns and unintended consequences of National Weather Service policy changes. Also, beginning in 2007, NOAA switched from the F-scale to the EF-scale for rating tornado damage, causing additional problems with attempting to assess if tornadoes are changing over time. Data provided by Harold Brooks, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory.

Other posts looking back at the remarkable weather events of 2011
Deadliest weather disaster of 2011: the East African drought
Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?
Wettest year on record in Philadelphia; 2011 sets record for wet/dry extremes in U.S.
Hurricane Irene: New York City dodges a potential storm surge mega-disaster

The NWS posted a summary of the records set during the tornado season of 2011 in February 2012.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
Tornado - Pine Apple,AL (EarlBcom)
Tornado just south of Pine Apple, AL on around 5:40pm. This storm was a part of the Alabama tornado outbreak on April 15, 2011. earlb.com VIDEO - See video of tornado at earlb.com
Tornado - Pine Apple,AL
As Is (teach50)
My husband and I were visiting my parents in Birmingham, Alabama. We decided to take a day trip to Tuscaloosa to see the damage from the April 27 tornado. It was a sight that I will never forget. Blocks and blocks of flattened houses and stores. This area has not been touched in 2 months. It was so moving that I started to cry thinking of all these poor people.
As Is

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Grothar had a comment earlier on this blog, I believe - try going back a few pages.
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hey TropicalAnalyistwx13...ya know wat!?

You really got me addicted to that NWS Hotseat game....lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
459. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's harsh, don't you think? I mean yeah, the blog has definitely well downhill and bad, but blaming Dr. Masters isn't right. However, I would vouch for the administrative problems. They ban the good people for little reasons while the actual bad ones are running amok. It's a shame too, the blog used to be a wonderful place to come to.

I remember the days..... oh the good ol days, LOL as soon as I started to post on here this year things started really getting bad. Too many people bashing the blog thats why I stoped posting as often, I got sick of it. Hopefully next year we can all restore this blog to its former glory when we used to share weather info left and right like what a weather blog is supposed to be. Great to see your still here TA13, is Grothar still around?
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Nostalgia dominates people's opinions. Old members nearly always look back at the old times and say "those were great times"/"those were better times" no matter how bad it was.
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If they think it's so bad then what are they still doing here, checking it out and posting?! Good grief. Things are the way they always were. Follow the rules and you're okay; ignore the rules and you're not. Simple as that. Anyway, I enjoy coming on here and reading the comments, adding my own when I feel like it. Dr. Masters does not deserve that condemnation.
Practice discipline and show restraint. Obviously, those are problems for the person posting the eff message. Anyway, I have enjoyed checking out this blog for years. It's only the crybabies and trolls that bother me, but that's what the "ignore" option is for.
Happy New Year.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's harsh, don't you think? I mean yeah, the blog has definitely well downhill and bad, but blaming Dr. Masters isn't right. However, I would vouch for the administrative problems. They ban the good people for little reasons while the actual bad ones are running amok. It's a shame too, the blog used to be a wonderful place to come to.


and i never got to be in it:(
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
TC Thane is now Cyclone Thane. 65 knots as of 0300Z
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
havent been on in about a month guys whats up
i see we got ourselves a hurricane making landfall in southern india pretty impressive storm
i see la nina refuses to go away:

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Alaska volcano erupts, sends ash cloud 15,000 feet into sky
Alaska Dispatch | Dec 29, 2011

An ash cloud erupted some 15,000 feet into the air from Alaska's Cleveland Volcano, according to satellite images and the Alaska Volcano Observatory.

The volcano, located in the Aleutian Islands about 45 miles west of the community of Nikolski, has been upgraded and downgraded several times over the last few months, flaring up in July and erupting in the form of a growing lava dome in August. Following several weeks of activity, the volcano was downgraded before being upgraded again to an alert level of "watch" and an aviation hazard color-code of "orange" in early September. Two months later, the alert level was again lowered after the volcano seemed to quiet down.

This latest activity comes six days after the most recent update on the AVO website. The AVO said that satellite imagery from about 5 a.m. Thursday confirmed the presence of a detached ash cloud, about 50 miles away from the volcano and moving southeast.

The last significant eruption of Cleveland occurred in February 2001 and resulted in three ash plumes that reached up to 39,000 feet above sea level and "a rubbly lava flow and hot avalanche that reached the sea."

Aviators in the area are encouraged to exercise caution, but the AVO said that the eruption may be an isolated event.

"Satellite data indicate that this is a single explosion event," the AVO said, "however, more sudden explosions producing ash could occur with plumes exceeding 20,000 feet above sea level. Such explosions and their associated ash clouds may go undetected in satellite imagery for hours."

Cleveland volcano lacks any real-time monitoring equipment.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Wow. Feel like I've just been streaked!
Happy New Year everyone.
Great link of the PBS end of weather year summary.
img src="

Watch How 2011 Became a 'Mind-Boggling' Year of Extreme Weather on PBS. See more from PBS NewsHour.">

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Unending earthquake tremors plague residents in western region of India
Posted on December 30, 2011
December 30, 2011 – RAJKOT, India – The earthquake tremors continue to rattle Saurashtra and Kutch region amid cold wave like conditions. As many as 13 tremors that included nine in Kutch region were recorded during the last three days, according to official sources. According to Institute of Seismological Research (ISR) officials, two low-intensity tremors of magnitude 1.4 on the Richter scale were felt in Bhachau area of Kutch on Thursday. On December 27, a tremor measuring 2.4 rocked Bhachau again. The tremors have given sleepless nights to people in Saurashtra region, especially in Talala area in Junagadh distrct. On October 20, an earthquake measuring 5.3 on Richter scale damaged houses in Maliya-Hatina and Talala taluka of Junagadh. According to ISR officials, 160 tremors have rocked in the state, mostly in Saurashtra and Kutch region, since December 1. –Times of India

Link
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We have 3 vortices....

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IO062011 - Tropical Cyclone (>64 kt) THANE


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129906
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
For those who have never played it before, I present HotSeat %u2013 A meteorology game developed by WFO Peachtree City, Georgia.

Basically, you issue Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado warning when you feel it is necessary. You have regular radar reflectivity, velocities, and VIL. There are several scenarios, such as a Severe Thunderstorm outbreak across Alabama or Severe Weather from TD Cindy (2005) in Georgia.

Link to the game


OH MY. what a fun game! i issued 3 tornado warnings, 1 verified, and had a lead time of 9 minutes. didnt miss one. this good?( i did easy on the 2008 Mother's day scenario)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
443. Got arrangements made for that one to go watch it, will be a truly historic mission.

Night launch too, first one by SpaceX. Going to be an excellent mission.
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Cincinnati, Ohio:

Highs in the 20s!? Holy crap, that's cold!
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Meanwhile in Texas. Better-ish.




I don't doubt there is a terrible drought, but I doubted the fiqers from this site, I remember watching several years ago of the drought in Florida, it was raining 2 to 3 inches every day, lake Okeechobee was seeing dirt for many weeks. After the rains started I talked to many friends in Florida, the said all the rivers and lakes were full, but this site said Florida was in severe drought, Lake Okeechobee was about 85% full, yet this site said severe drought.
I looked at Beaumont Texas rain data for the last 30 days, the've had over 10" of rain.
I don't know what the lake levels, since I don't know anyone that lives around there. I went to Port Author Tx for Hurricane Ike, lots of flooding then.
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Chin up, presslord,



SpaceX poised to make history with space station docking
December 9, 2011 | 1:45 pm




Hawthorne-based commercial space venture SpaceX is set to send its Dragon space capsule to dock with the $100-billion International Space Station -- a feat that's been accomplished only by the world's wealthiest nations.

NASA announced Friday that the private company, formally named Space Exploration Technologies Corp., will aim to launch its 18-story Falcon 9 rocket Feb. 7, pending completion of final safety reviews, testing and verification.

In a statement, SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said the mission "will mark a historic milestone in the future of spaceflight.”

It’s also a mission that takes the company one step closer to cashing in on a $1.6-billion contract with NASA. The contract is to haul cargo in 12 flights to the space station for NASA.

If the February mission is successful, SpaceX would start in earnest to fulfill the contract. This would make the company the front-runner for the potentially multibillion-dollar job of ferrying astronauts to and from the space station now that NASA’s fleet of space shuttles has been retired.

While nearly everyone's eyes were on the final space shuttle flight in July, SpaceX engineers and technicians at Cape Canaveral, Fla., were readying the rocket that will lift the Dragon capsule into orbit.

The company had planned to dock with the space station this year but ran into delays.

SpaceX makes the Dragon capsule and Falcon 9 rocket at a sprawling facility in Hawthorne that once housed the fuselage assembly for Boeing Co.'s 747 jumbo jet. The hardware is put on a big rig and sent to Cape Canaveral for launches.

Last December, SpaceX became the first private company to blast a spacecraft into Earth's orbit and have it return intact. Up to that point only five countries and one intergovernmental agency had been able to launch a spacecraft and have it successfully orbit and reenter the Earth's atmosphere.

If its capsule docks with the space station, SpaceX will join an even more exclusive club of the U.S., Russia, Japan and the European Space Agency.

“SpaceX is on the forefront of demonstrating how a partnership between the government and private industry can lead to new capabilities and provide a large return on investment,” said Alan Lindenmoyer, NASA’s program manager for commercial transportation services.


On December 8, 2010, SpaceX became the first commercial company in history to recover a spacecraft from Orbit.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129906
Wow, there are many of the old bloggers there, dozens. It looks the the old wunderground with all the bloggers.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Uploaded by americaninjustice on Sep 27, 2008

China space walk. Chinese Taikonauts (Astronauts) perform space walk on Shenzhou VII (Shenzhou 7), live images. Space Walk. Retrieve experiment object. Hu Jintao telephone, congratulate. High quality video.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129906
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Quoting bappit:
Another quote:

"JEFF MASTERS: Drought is my number-one concern for climate change because drought affects food prices."


The Russian Crop failures from drought Dr. Master's used in the Broadcast was a fine example of that issue as well.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129906
Quoting bappit:
Hmmmm ... complete that last quote.

"That weather has natural extremes.

"We all know that you can have extreme years and not very extreme years. Certainly, this year was a very naturally extreme year. But I argue that when you have a naturally extreme year occurring within the context of global warming, okay, now you've put more heat in the atmosphere. That means you have more energy to power stronger storms and more energy also to give you more intense heat waves and droughts.

"So, in particular, we look at heat waves, droughts, and flooding events. They all tend to get increased when you have this extra energy in the atmosphere. I call it being on steroids kind of for the atmosphere."


Thanks for the clarity of the Thread he stated bappit.

Happy New year to ya as well.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129906
Another quote:

"JEFF MASTERS: Drought is my number-one concern for climate change because drought affects food prices."
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Quoting hcubed:
Just one quote from there to see the tone that story took:

JEFF MASTERS: That weather has natural extremes..."

Amen to that...
Hmmmm ... complete that last quote.

"That weather has natural extremes.

"We all know that you can have extreme years and not very extreme years. Certainly, this year was a very naturally extreme year. But I argue that when you have a naturally extreme year occurring within the context of global warming, okay, now you've put more heat in the atmosphere. That means you have more energy to power stronger storms and more energy also to give you more intense heat waves and droughts.

"So, in particular, we look at heat waves, droughts, and flooding events. They all tend to get increased when you have this extra energy in the atmosphere. I call it being on steroids kind of for the atmosphere."
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Quoting Patrap:


Unless you have A Russian Soyuz Seat.

....and 50 Million.








shameful
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
429. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
5:30 AM IST December 30 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal Close To Puducherry

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Red Message

At 0:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved further westward and lays at centered near 11.8N 79.9E, very close to southeast of Puducherry.

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast close to south of Puducherry within a few hours and weaken gradually.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -72C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 10.5N to 13.5N and west of 80.5E. The convection is showing signs of weakening due to interaction with land surface.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The central pressure is 976 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Storm surge of about 1.0-1.5 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Puducherry and Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.

POST LANDFALL OUTLOOK
======================

Even after landfall the system is likely to maintain its intensity for 12 hours and weaken gradually. Under its influence rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy fall is likely to continue over north Tamil Nadu and Pudducherry during next 24 hours after landfall causing inundation of low lying areas. Gale/squally wind speed reaching 45-50 knots gusting to 55 knots causing damage to thatched roofs and huts breaking of tree branches causing minor damage to power and communication lines over north Tamil Nadu and Pudducherry during 12 hours after the landfall. People are advised to remain indoor/safe place and cooperate with state Govt. officials and disaster management agencies.
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..Early Sunrise Viz

Cyclone Thane

Meteosat 7

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129906
Quoting presslord:
NASA = No Access to Space AnymoreLink


Unless you have A Russian Soyuz Seat.

....and 50 Million.






Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129906
Quoting presslord:
NASA = No Access to Space AnymoreLink


If they keep the piracy... We will hear them say "One small step for man, one big step for China....... in Mandarin

China push to put astronaut on the moon
By Simon Rabinovitch in Beijing
China's Long March-2F/H rocketGetty

China has declared its intention to land an astronaut on the moon, in the first official confirmation of its aim to go where Americans last set foot nearly 40 years ago.

While Chinese scientists have previously discussed the possibility of a manned lunar mission, a government white paper published on Thursday is the first public government document to enshrine it as a policy goal.

China will conduct studies on the preliminary plan for a human lunar landing , the white paper said.

Although a manned moon mission is still some time off Chinese experts say after 2020 the statement highlights Beijing soaring ambitions just five months after the US retired its space shuttle programme . Chinese people are the same as people around the world, Zhang Wei, an official with China National Space Administration, said at a briefing. When looking up at the starry sky, we are full of longing and yearning for the vast universe.

According to the white paper, which serves as a blueprint for the next five years, China will develop new satellites, accelerate efforts to build a space station and strengthen its research in space. Laying the foundation for a mission to the moon, the government also plans to launch unmanned lunar probes and make new technological breakthroughs in human space flights by 2016.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Salt Lake City:

We're on track to have the driest December on record and ski resorts are way below normal for snowfall. Plus tomorrow's high is forecasted to be near a record high.
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424. flsky
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
For West Palm Beach...


I'll take it! I'm in Jacksonville right now and I'm freezing!
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Quoting HurrikanEB:
Not sure if this has been posted, but PBS has done a great news recap of this year's extreme weather.
The 10 minute video also features extensive interviews with Kathryn Sullivan (Deputy Director of NOAA) and Dr. Jeff Masters himself.

How 2011 Became a 'Mind-Boggling' Year of Extreme Weather



That link is new.

The other one mentioned was this one:

Link

Just one quote from there to see the tone that story took:

"...JUDY WOODRUFF: Jeff Masters, what about that possible connection to climate change? Is it too early to say?

JEFF MASTERS: Well, absolutely.

And we have a problem with the tornado record. It%u2019s very hard to measure tornadoes. We can%u2019t put wind measurement instruments into them. So we have to indirectly infer their strength by if they happen to hit a building and knock it down. Then you can say, well, this tornado probably had 200-mile-an-hour winds %u2014 so, very tough to measure and very tough to figure out if tornadoes are changing with time. And our measurements only go back about 60 years, which really isn%u2019t long enough to see if there%u2019s a climate trend or not..."

While in the first, he states:

"...HARI SREENIVASAN: So, Jeff, how do we tie this in with any particular cause? We can't say that a temperature warming or a global temperature increase causes a tornado or this hurricane. But what can we say? What does the data show us?

JEFF MASTERS: That weather has natural extremes..."

Amen to that...
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Wilmington, North Carolina:

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For West Palm Beach...

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NASA = No Access to Space AnymoreLink
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
For those who have never played it before, I present HotSeat %u2013 A meteorology game developed by WFO Peachtree City, Georgia.

Basically, you issue Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado warning when you feel it is necessary. You have regular radar reflectivity, velocities, and VIL. There are several scenarios, such as a Severe Thunderstorm outbreak across Alabama or Severe Weather from TD Cindy (2005) in Georgia.

Link to the game
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418. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:30 AM bulletin

FKIN20 VIDP 300000
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20111229/1800Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC: THANE
NR: 13
PSN: N1200 E08036
MOV: W 7KT
C: 0976 HPA
MAX WIND: 60KT
FCST PSN+6HR: 30/0000Z N1200 E07954
FCST MAX WIND+6HR: 55KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 30/0600Z N1200 E07912
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 40KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 30/1200Z N1200 E07900
FCST MAX WIND+18HR 30KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 30/1800Z N1200 E07830
FCST MAX WIND+24HR 20KT
NXT MSG: 20111230/0000Z
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IO062011 - Tropical Cyclone (>64 kt) THANE

Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129906
416. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #32
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
2:30 AM IST December 30 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Red Message

At 21:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and lays at centered near 11.8N 80.3E, about 50 km east of Puducherry and 125 km south of Chennai (Tamil Nadu).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast close to south of Puducherry within a few hours.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -74C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 10.0N to 13.0N and west of 81.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The central pressure is 976 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Storm surge of about 1.0-1.5 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Puducherry and Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.

POST LANDFALL OUTLOOK
======================

ven after landfall the system is likely to maintain its intensity for 12 hours and weaken gradually. Under its influence rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy fall is likely to continue over north Tamil Nadu and Pudducherry during next 24 hours after landfall causing inundation of low lying areas. Gale/squally wind speed reaching 40-50 knots gusting to 55 knots causing damage to thatched roofs and huts breaking of tree branches causing minor damage to power and communication lines over north Tamil Nadu and Pudducherry during 12 hours after the landfall. People are advised to remain indoor/safe place and cooperate with state Govt. officials and disaster management agencies.


Forecast and Intensity
========================

3 HRS: 11.8N 79.9E - 65-70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
9 HRS: 11.8N 79.2E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
33 HRS: 11.8N 77.0E - Low Pressure Area
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415. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BENILDE (04-20112012)
4:00 AM RET December 30 2011
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Benilde (991 hPa) located at 13.7S 81.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Gale Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 14.5S 79.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.4S 78.0E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 17.1S 76.0E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 19.1S 74.3E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

Convection has structured over the low level circulation center within the last 6 hours. Low level inflow is good poleward on both sides. Upper level divergence is improving, specially poleward.

Though after 48 hours, system is forecast to intensify regularly as it will approach the axis of the upper level ridge near 17.0S, and as a good upper level outflow channel is forecast to build aloft poleward. The maximum of intensity should occur on Sunday, January 1st, when the system is forecast to be in phase with the upper level ridge. Beyond 96 hours, system is forecast to reach seas with marginal heat oceanic content south of 20.0S.

Most of available numerical weather prediction models forecast a southwestward track under the combined effects of a forecast weakness in the low level subtropical high pressures (in relationship with a transiting polar trough), and the steering influence of a building ridge east of the system in the mid-levels.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
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Not sure if this has been posted, but PBS has done a great news recap of this year's extreme weather.
The 10 minute video also features extensive interviews with Kathryn Sullivan (Deputy Director of NOAA) and Dr. Jeff Masters himself.

How 2011 Became a 'Mind-Boggling' Year of Extreme Weather

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Meanwhile in Texas. Better-ish.


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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I don't know about other places, but around here the mets brought out the slosh models oh about 3 or 4 hours before Ike made landfall. This I saw online from way up in Longview. When we left on the 11th water was washing cars off the road. That was the night of the 12th he made landfall around 2am (of course) on the 13th. I could go on and on about who messed up what but I won't. Just frustrating. Another thing was people saying it's just a 2. Not all storms are created equal! I don't know what the answer is about making the storm surge products better but maybe the timing of them, and in some cases throwing the category out the window. That's kind of what scares me the most is somebody not taking the Category seriously after seeing what Ike did.  I'd put my 2 cents in there if they ever let me register. Lol. Good post though thank you. If anyone has any ideas tell 'em!


Irene was 'just a 1' and it washed out a road conecting the outer banks to the rest of them islands and the mainland(i think) with 85 mph windspeeds. i seriously wish to have a scale created with storm surge a factor!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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