2011: Year of the Tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:25 PM GMT on December 27, 2011

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The year 2011 will forever be known as Year of the Tornado in the U.S. A series of violent severe storms swept across the Plains and Southeast U.S., bringing an astonishing six billion-dollar disasters in a three-month period. The epic tornado onslaught killed 552 people and caused $25 billion in damage. Three of the five largest tornado outbreaks on record hit in a six-week period, including the largest and most expensive tornado outbreak in U.S. history--the $10.2 billion dollar Southeast U.S. Super Outbreak, April 25 - 28. Even more stunning was the $9 billion late-May tornado outbreak that brought an EF-5 tornado to Joplin, Missouri. The Joplin tornado did $3 billion in damage and killed 158 people--the largest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history, and the most expensive tornado in world history. In a year of amazing weather extremes, this year's tornado season ranks as the top U.S. weather story of 2011.


Video 1. Remarkable video of the tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama on April 27, 2011. Fast forward to minute four to see the worst of the storm.



Figure 1. A truly frightening radar image: multiple hook echoes from at least ten supercell thunderstorms cover Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee during the height of the April 27, 2011 Super Outbreak. A multi-hour animation is available here.

A record six EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
Six top-end EF-5 tornadoes hit the U.S. in 2011, tying this year with 1974 for the greatest number of these most destructive tornadoes. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The April 27, 2011 Rainsville/Dekalb County, Alabama tornado (26 killed, 34 mile path length.)

5) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (158 killed, 14 mile path length.)

6) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.


Figure 3. EF-5 damage from the April 27, 2011 Neshoba tornado in Mississippi. The tornado was so powerful that it dug out the ground to a depth of two feet over an area 25 - 50 yards wide and several hundred yards long. Image credit: NWS.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release, the NOAA Extreme Weather 2011 page, and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The tornado death toll of 552 in 2011 ties 1936 as the second deadliest year for tornadoes in U.S. history. Only 1925, with 794 fatalities, was deadlier. In 1936, violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During the 1930s, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes may have killed tens of thousands of people if we did not have our modern tornado modern warning system.


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2011. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2011. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2010. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III, and updated by Harold Brooks in 2011.

- April 2011 had the most tornadoes of any month in U.S. history--753. The previous record was 542, set in May 2003. The previous busiest April was in 1974, with 267 tornadoes. The average number of tornadoes for the month of April during the past decade was 161, and the 30-year average for April tornadoes was 135.

- On April 27, 199 confirmed tornadoes touched down. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record (note, though, that reliable records for number of tornadoes only extend back in time to about the early 1990s):

- The April 25 - 28, 2011 Super tornado outbreak, with 343 tornadoes, is now the largest tornado outbreak in U.S. history. The previous record (3 days or less duration) was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- The May 22 - 27, 2011 tornado outbreak, with 180 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 4th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes.

- The April 14 - 16, 2011 tornado outbreak, with 177 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the second largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record, and 5th largest outbreak of six or fewer days duration.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 158 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 7th deadliest in history. The $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in world history.

- Preliminary damage estimates from Munich Re insurance company put 2011's insured losses due to U.S. thunderstorms and tornadoes at $25 billion, more than double the previous record set in 2010.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 2nd place behind 1973 for greatest number of tornadoes greater than EF-0 strength (EF-1, EF-2, EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 strength, Figure 5.)


Figure 5. Number of EF-1, EF-2, EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The total shown for 2011 is preliminary and uses unofficial numbers through November 17, but 2011 now ranks in 2nd place behind 1973. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of tornadoes stronger than EF-0, implying that climate change, as yet, is not having a noticeable impact on U.S. tornadoes. However, statistics of tornado frequency and intensity are highly uncertain. Major changes in the rating process occurred in the mid-1970s (when all tornadoes occurring prior to about 1975 were retrospectively rated), and again in 2001, when scientists began rating tornadoes lower because of engineering concerns and unintended consequences of National Weather Service policy changes. Also, beginning in 2007, NOAA switched from the F-scale to the EF-scale for rating tornado damage, causing additional problems with attempting to assess if tornadoes are changing over time. Data provided by Harold Brooks, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory.

Other posts looking back at the remarkable weather events of 2011
Deadliest weather disaster of 2011: the East African drought
Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?
Wettest year on record in Philadelphia; 2011 sets record for wet/dry extremes in U.S.
Hurricane Irene: New York City dodges a potential storm surge mega-disaster

The NWS posted a summary of the records set during the tornado season of 2011 in February 2012.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
Tornado - Pine Apple,AL (EarlBcom)
Tornado just south of Pine Apple, AL on around 5:40pm. This storm was a part of the Alabama tornado outbreak on April 15, 2011. earlb.com VIDEO - See video of tornado at earlb.com
Tornado - Pine Apple,AL
As Is (teach50)
My husband and I were visiting my parents in Birmingham, Alabama. We decided to take a day trip to Tuscaloosa to see the damage from the April 27 tornado. It was a sight that I will never forget. Blocks and blocks of flattened houses and stores. This area has not been touched in 2 months. It was so moving that I started to cry thinking of all these poor people.
As Is

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112. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 04-20112012
16:00 PM RET December 28 2011
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 04 (1000 hPa) located at 12.2S 88.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 12.0S 86.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 12.4S 84.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 13.3S 79.6E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 14.6S 76.5E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

The cloud pattern of the disturbance has little changed within the last 6 hours. The low level circulation is still on the eastern border of the cloud mass of deep convection. The low level circulation center has been relocated at 0600 UTC (corrective position at 0600 UTC: near 12.3S 89.9E). The low level circulation center has slowed down. The low level flow pattern seems to be rather ill-defined (CF. TRMM 37ghz at 9:31 UTC). The lower levels supply is currently good on the two faces of the system. Energetic potential is good. System is still undergoing a moderate upper level shear. The upper levels constraint should progressively weaken within the next 36-48 hours. At 48 hours, the upper outflow channel should set up poleward. A second outflow should temporarily set up equatorward on Saturday and Sunday. Intensification should also remain moderate within the next 36 hours, but should heighten beyond. At the end of the forecast range (beginning of next week) upper level environmental conditions should become less favorable (strengthening of the upper level wind shear). Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for a west to southwest track over the northern periphery of the subtropical high pressures of low ad mid-troposphere.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Disturbance 04 will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
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111. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
14:30 PM IST December 28 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Severe Cyclonic Storm THANE Over Southwest And Adjoining Southeast Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Orange Message

At 9:00 AM UTC, The cyclonic storm over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and intensified into a severe cyclonic storm. Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane lays centered near 12.5N 85.0E, about 500 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 600 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 800 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify further during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Cuddalore and Sriharikota, close to south of Chennai around Friday morning.

However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T3.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -86C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 14.5N and between 81.0E to 87.0E. Convection shows central dense overcast pattern.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with a central pressure of 984 hPa. The state of the sea is high to very high around the system center.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

6 HRS: 12.5N 84.3E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.5N 83.6E - 60-65 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.5N 80.4E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 12.7N 78.1E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
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Tuscaloosa Tornado

Link
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FYI: just two months (give or take) until the 2012 tornado season begins.

WU's own Angela Fritz is quoted extensively in this Christian Science Monitor article on the lack (so far) or real winter weather across the U.S.. Way to go, Ms Fritz!
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Please leave the Global warming feces out of this blog, it ruins it for us lurkers.
I suppose if one would rather not hear the truth because it's far easier to go through life pretending things are different than they really are, this is a fantastic request. :-\
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13571

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Amazing but sad story about Indianola! There is a lesson about "Mother Nature" buried in there that you don't need to dig very deep, to find.


I completely agree with that.

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Amazing but sad story about Indianola! There is a lesson about "Mother Nature" buried in there that you don't need to dig very deep, to find.
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Finding out a little more about the LAST Indianola hurricane. Since my son just moved his family to Bay City. Quite the past that area has had tropically speaking.  Hard to tell what really happened. Here's a few things I've gathered. And BTW 1886 was just brutal!

By 1875 Indianola had become the second largest port in Texas with a
population of 5,000 and its ease of access through the shallow waters of
the Gulf. Steamships, such as Charles Morgan’s line out of New York
City, chose Indianola over other Texas ports. On September 16, 1875, the
town was hit by a hurricane with an estimated 115 mph winds and strong
storm surge. Eight hundred deaths were recorded along the Texas coast
while 75% of the town of Indianola had been destroyed.
Eleven years later in 1886, a second hurricane headed towards
Indianola. Experts believe the hurricane of 1886 was the fifth largest
storm to ever strike the United States, a Category 4. At the time it hit
Indianola, on August 20, 1886, it was the strongest hurricane ever
recorded with winds an estimated 155 mph, a pressure of 925 mbar, and a
storm surge of 15 feet.
The 1886 Hurricane was a classic Texas Style Cape Verde
Hurricane: The storm originated in mid August just outside of the
Carribbean Sea, moved through the Carribbean and Gulf, then made
landfall in Indianola, Texas as at least a borderline Catagory 4-5,
completely destroying the town. The storm’s intensity was unprecedented
with a barometer reading of 925 mbs, and remains the strongest hurricane
to ever hit Texas and at least the 5th strongest in US history. Due to
the complete destruction of Indianola, and therby destruction of storm
data, it is entirely possible that the Indianola Hurricane was stronger
than records show. Damages from the hurricane in 1886 are unknown but
catastrophic (it completely destroyed the most important port city in
Texas). If a similar hurricane were to strike today, the damage would be
equally as catastrophic and billions of dollars in damages would be
caused. The coastline from Port Aransas to Bay City would be completely
leveled by a 25 foot surge. Surge flooding might even extend to Victoria
and Cureo via the Guadalupe River. With winds in excess of 155 mph,
everything not destroyed by surge would be toppled by the extreme winds.
Damages caused by these winds would probably be similar to those caused
by Andrew. Severe inland flooding would also probably take place in the
Texas Hill Country.

–Source - wunderground.com

In 1875 the casualty toll was 400 deaths, the 1886 Hurricane took
less lives, 46, because residents were able to relocate to higher
ground. Indianola was reportedly “obliterated” by the massive hurricane.
When it was over, residents gave up their dream and packed their bags,
the port city known as the Queen of the West was no more.

Just a little from Hurdat1.
Busiest hurricane season ever for the United States:
The 1886
hurricane season has been analyzed to be the busiest on record for the
continental United States. Seven hurricanes were recorded to have hit
the U.S.—a Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale Category 2 hurricane
into Texas and Louisiana in June, two Category 2 hurricanes into northwest
Florida in June, a Category 1 hurricane into northwest Florida in July,
the Category 4 "Indianola"*
hurricane into Texas in August, a Category 1 hurricane into Texas in
September and a Category 3 hurricane into Louisiana in October. The
previous busiest hurricane season for the United States was 1985 with
six landfalling hurricanes.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Some didn't have a choice, some won't leave regardless. It's the same as New Orleans continuing to thrive despite ravaging from Katrina -- you cannot abolish a community, even if logic dictates otherwise.


Well...not necessarily. But I  get what ya mean. ;-)





Indianola, Texas street scene


Indianola street scene, photo
courtesy texasoldphotos.com

 

 


Old Indianola

 


So, Indianola, has it
been with thee,


Thou once fair city by
the moonlit sea!


Thy fame is ended and
thy beauty fled.


Bleak memory call thee
form the silent dead.


Thy streets are
nameless, and seaweeds grow


Along the walks where
life did want to flow


Forever dead!


Forever thy dream is
o'er!


Thou livist alone on


Memory's barren shore


The sun that set, yet
sets to rise again,


Will smile the same,
yet smile on the in vain


While moonbeams dancing
as the billows roar,


Will seem as bright,
yet dance on’t thee no more.

 


- Jeff Melemona 1889

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"2011 will forever be known as the Year of the Tornado...." according to Dr. Masters.

But this will surely change if 2012 or some other year exceeds the numbers for 2011.
Weather is driven by Climate.
So I expect changes.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24402
Gonna get cold in Dixie!
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Reference the Joplin Tornado.

The National Weather Service was promoting to local governments for outside warning systems (sirens) to activate the sirens when a Tornado Watch is in effect, and then a severe Thunderstorm warning in effect.
This was done in Joplin MO.
The sirens were activated 3 times prior to the touchdown.
One the three previous activations NO tornado's.
Since the Joplin Tornado, many communities changed back to the old way of if there is a Tornado sighted, or on radar, and a Tornado WARNING has been issued, then the sirens will be activated.
I agree with the older system, cause in my opinion, with the activation of a severe Thunderstorm warning, it creates the Wolf syndrome!
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Quoting Patrap:
# 74




Oooofh!, Brrrrrrr in Dixie


I thought the GFS was accurate with this prediction.
The discussion was the MJO, holding on.
Great discussion in here.
I also liked the good Doctors synopsis on tornado's for the year of 2011.
Please leave the Global warming feces out of this blog, it ruins it for us lurkers.
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India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
11:30 AM IST December 28 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest And Adjoining Southeast Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Orange Message

At 6:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lays centered at 12.5N 85.0E, about 500 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 600 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 800 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify further during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Cuddalore and Nellore, close to south of Chennai around Friday morning. However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T3.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -79C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 14.0N and 81.0E to 87.5E. Convection shows increase in organization which may lesd to central dense overcast pattern.

3 minute sustained winds near is 45 knots with a central pressure of 986 hPa. The state of the sea is high to very high around the system center.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

6 HRS: 12.5N 84.3E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.7N 83.7E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.8N 81.3E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 12.7N 78.5E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
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Quoting Levi32:


No my friend. This is what an annular hurricane looks like - a massive eyewall, and absolutely nothing else.

ay, look who it is.

Hope your break is going well and happy new year!
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Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 04-20112012
10:00 AM RET December 28 2011
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 04 (1000 hPa) located at 12.2S 89.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 16 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/0 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 12.2S 87.4E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 12.5S 85.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 13.0S 80.6E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 14.1S 76.9E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

Convection persists and moved closer from the center since yesterday (1300z). System is undergoing a moderate easterly vertical wind shear. Low level circulation center has accelerated westward within the last few hours.

Lower level environmental conditions are favorable. Upper level conditions should improve within the next 48 hours. Upper level wind shear should weaken progressively. Beyond 48 hours, and upper level outflow channel should set up poleward. Intensification should remain moderate within the next 48 hours and accelerate beyond 48 hours. Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for a west to southwestward track over the northern edge of the subtropical high pressure of low and mid-troposphere.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Disturbance 04 will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
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Quoting yqt1001:
Any reason for the lack of banding structure with Thane? It has even less banding than annular hurricanes...





No my friend. This is what an annular hurricane looks like - a massive eyewall, and absolutely nothing else.

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Well, about this year's tornado outbreaks, there's this from the National Resources Defense Council (NRDC), in their report about 2011 weather extremes:

"B. Link to Climate Change

"...Furthermore, we were interested in mapping some of the types of extreme weather events that have occurred in 2011 and whose occurrence is linked to the influence of climate change..."

"...On the other hand, there are other types of extreme events for which the net influence of climate change is not yet understood fully. These include extreme events like tornadoes, which occurred in 2011 and inflicted significant damages and tragic effects in US communities. Because additional studies are needed to determine the potential influence of climate change in affecting tornadoes' occurrence and severity, we chose to not include these types of events..."

NRDC Extreme Weather Events, 2011
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Oops. I forgot to post a link of the image.

Link
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This is a weather alert!!

A pretty sizable cold blast is forecast by the GFS by the end of the 8-day time period. We may start out the new year with high temperatures NOT making it past 62 degrees.

In fact, there's a good chance that high temperatures will be at or below 60 degrees, and the Miami Meteogram proves it.

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Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #38
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER GRANT (04U)
5:00 PM CST December 28 2011
===================================

At 3:30 PM CST, Tropical Low, Former Grant (1000 hPa) located at 14.1S 135.9E, or 60 km west southwest of Alyangula and 235 km south southwest of Nhulunbuy. The low is reported as moving east at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Ex-tropical cyclone Grant is near the coast and expected to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria tonight. The system is then expected to move steadily east, across the Gulf of Carpentaria and may redevelop into a tropical cyclone overnight on Thursday or Friday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas of Queensland in the next 24 hours, however gales may develop later.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding of low lying areas over the eastern Arnhem and eastern Roper-McArthur Districts of the Northern Territory, including Groote Eylandt tonight and Thursday. HEAVY RAIN potentially leading to flooding is expected to develop across the Peninsula and northern parts of the Gulf Country districts in Queensland during Thursday and Friday.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Milingimbi and Groote Eylandt in the Northern Territory and also between Thursday Island and Mornington Island in Queensland. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along the foreshore.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Thursday Island to Gilbert River Mouth in Queensland

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 14.0S 138.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 13.9S 141.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 13.7S 144.8E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================

Position primarily based on surface observations.

The low remains in a moderately sheared environment of 15-25 kt to the SE. Deep convection associated with this system has been displaced well away from the LLCC, which is near the coast. Due to the presence of a mid level trough, shear is expected to remain at least at moderate levels throughout the systems presence in the Gulf of Caprentaria. As such, the development rate of this system is forecast to be slower than the standard rate. This means that TC development could occur in the eastern Gulf of Caprentaria after two nights over warm waters.

Dry air is also evident to the west of the system as indicated in water vapor imagery and the Darwin sounding at 27/23Z. The Gove sounding north of the system at the equivalent time indicates a relatively deep, moist environment.

The system is expected to move steadily to the east under the influence of the mid level trough and strong W steering to the north.

An alternative scenario is that sheer dominates the system and a monsoonal low structure develops. This is a feature of a number of models.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 13:30 PM UTC..
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Interj dort!

im gon to bed. night all
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
At midday WST a tropical low was located near 11S 091E and is moving slowly westward. The low is expected to move west of 090E, outside of the Western Region later on Wednesday. It is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone while in the Western Region.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================

Thursday: Very Low
Friday: Very Low
Saturday: Very Low
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India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
8:30 AM IST December 28 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest And Adjoining Southeast Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Alert for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Orange Message

At 3:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lays centered near 12.5N 85.5E, or about 550 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 600 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 750 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify further during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Cuddalore and Nellore, close to south of Chennai around Friday morning.

However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

6 HRS: 12.5N 85.0E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.7N 84.3E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.8N 81.7E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 12.7N 78.9E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
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Quoting Articuno:
this is one reason why not to live in a tornado prone area.
Some didn't have a choice, some won't leave regardless. It's the same as New Orleans continuing to thrive despite ravaging from Katrina -- you cannot abolish a community, even if logic dictates otherwise.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Gah, you always leave people hanging........This would mean what exactly?
This means areas of warm and cool weather or storminess vs pleasant weather will shift accordingly to the pattern change. Of course, areas with anomalous ridging can still have a storm pass through and areas with anomalous troughing can still get pleasant weather, but the longwave pattern dictates the average weather one can expect to find for an area until the pattern changes again.

As a general rule, cold air advection is found on the backside of troughs or in front of ridges, while warm air advection is found ahead of a trough or behind a ridge. Ridges obviously bring pleasant and calm weather while troughs bring stormy weather. Generally speaking, the more amplified the pattern, the shorter the wavelengths will be. Also, under more amplified patterns, the pattern tends to be more stuck or stagnant, whereas less amplified patterns are more progressive. This can lead to extended periods of time with similar weather. Also worth noting that a more amplified pattern does not produce stronger storms as it is usually a sign of a weaker pressure gradient between the polar region and the midlatitude. However,since a more amplified pattern means storms dig down further and ridges push more poleward, this pattern brings unusually strong storms for lower latitudes as well as exceptionally fair weather to higher latitudes.
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im sleepy...
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
Gotta love SE TX.


Frosty Tonight; Warming into the 70s by Friday...
Posted:
Dec 27, 2011 8:02 PM CST


Updated:
Dec 27, 2011 8:02 PM CST



By Patrick Vaughn - bio | email
 Frost expected tonight - protect your plants and pets...
Frost expected tonight - protect your plants and pets... Cold high pressure will settle over the area allowing temps to fall to freezing...
Cold high pressure will settle over the area allowing temps to fall to freezing... Freezing temperatures may get as far south as Interstate Ten...
Freezing temperatures may get as far south as Interstate Ten...


Cold high pressure will build
over Southeast Texas tonight with freezing temperatures and frost expected
roughly from Interstate Ten northward. 


Mostly sunny skies and warmer
temperatures are expected Wednesday with highs in the lower to middle 60s.  The cold high pressure cell will move away
from the area.


A nice warming trend is
forecasted through the weekend with highs reaching the 70s as early as
Friday.  Lows will warm back into the
upper 50s by Sunday Morning.  Of course
with southerly winds returning, humidity levels will be on the increase as
well. 


At this point, the weekend looks
mostly cloudy with a slight chance of light showers - you'll need air
conditioning.  Highs will be in the
lower to middle 70s…ten to fifteen degrees above normal. 


The next front is expected either
Early Sunday or Early Monday.  At this
point, it is unclear how strong this front will be.  One model shows a very strong front while the other does
not.  For now, will split the difference
but trend towards the usually reliable European Model as far as rain chances
and temperatures.


The Canadian cold front is forecasted
to push through the area early Monday Morning with a 70% coverage of rain...again
this could change.  For now, temperatures are forecasted to fall into the
40s during Monday Afternoon. 


Highs Tuesday, may not get out of
the 40s.  Stay tuned.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Longwave pattern over North America is making quite a change over the next few days. A few people have already noticed the ECMWF forecasting a significant dive in the jetstream across the eastern half of the United States in a little over a week. This is due to the ridging, which was previously present over the Northeastern Pacific, being moved eastward over the Western United States as the lower heights over Alaska dig down and amplify. As the trough over the NE Pacific and Gulf of Alaska amplifies, it amplifies the ridge over the western United States which naturally favors a trough to show up downstream of the ridge which would be over or just off the eastern United States depending on the positioning of the ridge. Right now the ECMWF favors a more amplified pattern with the ridge more over the western US and the trough over the eastern US, whereas the GFS has a flatter pattern with the ridging more over the central US and the trough just off the eastern US coast.


Big high over the NE Pacific that we have had throughout December (dates from Dec 1 - Dec 24)





12z ECMWF and GFS Forecasted 500mb Heights and Anomalies in 8-10 Days

Dang it Tom! That GFS sounds suspiciously like ohhhhh... the last forever round here! Back that ridge right back over the Pacific please.  Sigh. Nice explanation though.
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I remember May 22nd very well. I just came home from visiting my grandmother and I found out storms were heading toward Chicago (my dad was working up there at the time). So I turned on the Weather Channel only to see this live on TV:

Seeing this still makes me tear up. =(
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Longwave pattern over North America is making quite a change over the next few days. A few people have already noticed the ECMWF forecasting a significant dive in the jetstream across the eastern half of the United States in a little over a week. This is due to the ridging, which was previously present over the Northeastern Pacific, being moved eastward over the Western United States as the lower heights over Alaska dig down and amplify. As the trough over the NE Pacific and Gulf of Alaska amplifies, it amplifies the ridge over the western United States which naturally favors a trough to show up downstream of the ridge which would be over or just off the eastern United States depending on the positioning of the ridge. Right now the ECMWF favors a more amplified pattern with the ridge more over the western US and the trough over the eastern US, whereas the GFS has a flatter pattern with the ridging more over the central US and the trough just off the eastern US coast.


Big high over the NE Pacific that we have had throughout December (dates from Dec 1 - Dec 24)





12z ECMWF and GFS Forecasted 500mb Heights and Anomalies in 8-10 Days


Gah, you always leave people hanging........This would mean what exactly?
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Quoting Articuno:

I don't...get it.


From the article..it sounds like Samoa is regretting trading with the US and now it wants to invest more in the Asian markets and local markets.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:




I also believe that picture #3 is not of Yazoo City, nor of a tornado. I think that is the widely-passed-off-as-something-else photo of the parent storm/mesocyclone that produced the "Little Sioux Scout Camp tornado" in western Iowa.


you are correct, that photo has been around for quite some time now...passed off as this and that over the last couple years...
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Quoting yqt1001:
Any reason for the lack of banding structure with Thane? It has even less banding than annular hurricanes...





learning something new everyday...thanks to you, i have found the source to this microwave image. :D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
# 74




Oooofh!, Brrrrrrr in Dixie
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
Any reason for the lack of banding structure with Thane? It has even less banding than annular hurricanes...



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Longwave pattern over North America is making quite a change over the next few days. A few people have already noticed the ECMWF forecasting a significant dive in the jetstream across the eastern half of the United States in a little over a week. This is due to the ridging, which was previously present over the Northeastern Pacific, being moved eastward over the Western United States as the lower heights over Alaska dig down and amplify. As the trough over the NE Pacific and Gulf of Alaska amplifies, it amplifies the ridge over the western United States which naturally favors a trough to show up downstream of the ridge which would be over or just off the eastern United States depending on the positioning of the ridge. Right now the ECMWF favors a more amplified pattern with the ridge more over the western US and the trough over the eastern US, whereas the GFS has a flatter pattern with the ridging more over the central US and the trough just off the eastern US coast.


Big high over the NE Pacific that we have had throughout December (dates from Dec 1 - Dec 24)





12z ECMWF and GFS Forecasted 500mb Heights and Anomalies in 8-10 Days

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tropical disturbance just east of 90E about to enter southwestern Indian Ocean
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India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
2:30 AM IST December 28 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest And Adjoining Southeast Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Alert for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Yellow Message

At 21:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lays centered near 12.5N 86.0E, about 600 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 650 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 700 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore around Friday morning

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T3.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -85C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 8.0N to 16.0N and between 81.0E to 88.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with a central pressure of 992 hPa. The state of the sea is high to very high around the system's center.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

6 HRS: 12.7N 85.5E - 45-50 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.9N 85.0E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 13.3N 83.0E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 13.2N 79.5E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from India Meteorological Department will be issued at 3:00 AM UTC..
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Currently Active Tropical Cyclones


IO062011 - Tropical Cyclone (<64 kt) THANE

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #37
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER GRANT (04U)
11:00 AM CST December 28 2011
===================================

At 9:30 AM CST, Tropical Low, Former Grant (1001 hPa) located at 14.1S 135.1E, or 140 km west of Alyangula and 280 km southwest of Nhulunbuy. The low is reported as moving east at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Ex-tropical cyclone Grant is moving towards the east and is expected to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria later today or overnight. The system is then expected to move steadily east, across the Gulf of Carpentaria and may redevelop into a tropical cyclone overnight on Thursday or on Friday.

GALES are no longer expected in the Northern Territory in coastal areas between Nhulunbuy and Port Roper, including Groote Eylandt.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas of Queensland in the next 24 hours, however gales may develop later.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding of low lying areas over the eastern Arnhem and eastern Roper-McArthur Districts of the Northern Territory today and Thursday. HEAVY RAIN potentially leading to flooding is expected to develop across the Peninsula and northern parts of the Gulf Country districts in Queensland during Thursday and Friday.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Milingimbi and Groote Eylandt in the Northern Territory and also between Thursday Island and Mornington Island in Queensland. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along the foreshore.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Thursday Island to Gilbert River Mouth in Queensland.

The Cyclone WATCH from Nhulunbuy to Port Roper, including Groote Eylandt in the Northern Territory has been cancelled

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 14.1S 137.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 14.0S 140.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 13.8S 143.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================

Position is based primarily on surface observations.

The low is in a moderately sheared environment of 15-25 kt to the SE. Satellite imagery shows that deep convection associated with this system has been displaced well away from the LLCC, which is still over land. Due to the presence of a mid level trough, shear is expected to remain at least at moderate levels throughout the systems presence in the Gulf of Caprentaria. As such, the development rate of this system is forecast to be slower than the standard rate. This means that TC development could occur in the eastern Gulf of Caprentaria after two nights over warm waters.

Dry air is also evident to the west of the system as indicated in water vapor imagery and the Darwin sounding at 27/23Z. The Gove sounding north of the system at the equivalent time indicates a relatively deep, moist environment.

The system is expected to move steadily to the east under the influence of the mid level trough and strong W steering to the north.

An alternative scenario is that sheer dominates the system and a monsoonal low structure develops. This is a feature of a number of models.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
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Hey yall
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.. from Wiki...Timespan January 2011 – ongoing
Maximum rated tornado EF5 tornado
Philadelphia, Mississippi on April 27
Hackleburg, Alabama on April 27
Smithville, Mississippi on April 27
Rainsville, Alabama on April 27
Joplin, Missouri on May 22
Piedmont, Oklahoma on May 24
Tornadoes in USA 1,626
Damages (USA) ~$20-25 billion (Estimate as of July 1)
$9.5 billion (actual through July 31)[1]
Fatalities (USA) 552 fatalities (>5,370 injuries).
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21435
I tracked every billion dollar disaster during 2011, including the horrific tornado outbreak that the USA went through this spring. Never in my life have I seen so many tornadoes, so many damaging tornadoes, and so much destruction.
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Quoting HurrikanEB:
Wow. The US has not had a major hurricane strike since Wilma '05, but with $25 Billion in damages, this year's tornadoes have easily been the equivalent of the 4th most costly Hurricane on record... a spot ahead of Wilma, herself.
This years tornado season has been nothing short of hideous....The number graph is updated as of December-19..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21435
Wow. The US has not had a major hurricane strike since Wilma '05, but with $25 Billion in damages, this year's tornadoes have easily been the equivalent of the 4th most costly Hurricane on record... a spot ahead of Wilma, herself.
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Not exactly weather, but they currently suspect "recent hurricanes" as one of the possible culprits.

Giant shrimp raises big concern as it invades the Gulf

"The Asian tiger prawn, a foot-long crustacean with a voracious appetite and a proclivity for disease, has invaded the northern Gulf, threatening prized native species, from crabs and oysters to smaller brown and white shrimp....

"Another theory: The prawns may have escaped from flooded industrial shrimp ponds in the Caribbean Sea during recent hurricanes.
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Quoting Patrap:
Anytime hydrus,


5 Saints to Go to Pro Bowl
Da saints are sure puttin up some fine numbers, better than years past...

STANDINGS
Team W L T PCT
NO z 12 3 0 .800
ATL y 9 6 0 .600
CAR 6 9 0 .400
TB 4 11 0 .267
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21435
Quoting WxGeekVA:


GFS Nor'easter at hr 300 on 18Z run.... Different time frame but has the same general idea as the Euro...


is the GFS starting to agree with the Euro now? I think i read somewhere it was showing a much weaker system.... a link on the other blog maybe?

Edit: Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.