2011: Year of the Tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:25 PM GMT on December 27, 2011

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The year 2011 will forever be known as Year of the Tornado in the U.S. A series of violent severe storms swept across the Plains and Southeast U.S., bringing an astonishing six billion-dollar disasters in a three-month period. The epic tornado onslaught killed 552 people and caused $25 billion in damage. Three of the five largest tornado outbreaks on record hit in a six-week period, including the largest and most expensive tornado outbreak in U.S. history--the $10.2 billion dollar Southeast U.S. Super Outbreak, April 25 - 28. Even more stunning was the $9 billion late-May tornado outbreak that brought an EF-5 tornado to Joplin, Missouri. The Joplin tornado did $3 billion in damage and killed 158 people--the largest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history, and the most expensive tornado in world history. In a year of amazing weather extremes, this year's tornado season ranks as the top U.S. weather story of 2011.


Video 1. Remarkable video of the tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama on April 27, 2011. Fast forward to minute four to see the worst of the storm.



Figure 1. A truly frightening radar image: multiple hook echoes from at least ten supercell thunderstorms cover Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee during the height of the April 27, 2011 Super Outbreak. A multi-hour animation is available here.

A record six EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
Six top-end EF-5 tornadoes hit the U.S. in 2011, tying this year with 1974 for the greatest number of these most destructive tornadoes. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The April 27, 2011 Rainsville/Dekalb County, Alabama tornado (26 killed, 34 mile path length.)

5) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (158 killed, 14 mile path length.)

6) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.


Figure 3. EF-5 damage from the April 27, 2011 Neshoba tornado in Mississippi. The tornado was so powerful that it dug out the ground to a depth of two feet over an area 25 - 50 yards wide and several hundred yards long. Image credit: NWS.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release, the NOAA Extreme Weather 2011 page, and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The tornado death toll of 552 in 2011 ties 1936 as the second deadliest year for tornadoes in U.S. history. Only 1925, with 794 fatalities, was deadlier. In 1936, violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During the 1930s, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes may have killed tens of thousands of people if we did not have our modern tornado modern warning system.


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2011. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2011. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2010. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III, and updated by Harold Brooks in 2011.

- April 2011 had the most tornadoes of any month in U.S. history--753. The previous record was 542, set in May 2003. The previous busiest April was in 1974, with 267 tornadoes. The average number of tornadoes for the month of April during the past decade was 161, and the 30-year average for April tornadoes was 135.

- On April 27, 199 confirmed tornadoes touched down. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record (note, though, that reliable records for number of tornadoes only extend back in time to about the early 1990s):

- The April 25 - 28, 2011 Super tornado outbreak, with 343 tornadoes, is now the largest tornado outbreak in U.S. history. The previous record (3 days or less duration) was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- The May 22 - 27, 2011 tornado outbreak, with 180 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 4th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes.

- The April 14 - 16, 2011 tornado outbreak, with 177 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the second largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record, and 5th largest outbreak of six or fewer days duration.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 158 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 7th deadliest in history. The $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in world history.

- Preliminary damage estimates from Munich Re insurance company put 2011's insured losses due to U.S. thunderstorms and tornadoes at $25 billion, more than double the previous record set in 2010.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 2nd place behind 1973 for greatest number of tornadoes greater than EF-0 strength (EF-1, EF-2, EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 strength, Figure 5.)


Figure 5. Number of EF-1, EF-2, EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The total shown for 2011 is preliminary and uses unofficial numbers through November 17, but 2011 now ranks in 2nd place behind 1973. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of tornadoes stronger than EF-0, implying that climate change, as yet, is not having a noticeable impact on U.S. tornadoes. However, statistics of tornado frequency and intensity are highly uncertain. Major changes in the rating process occurred in the mid-1970s (when all tornadoes occurring prior to about 1975 were retrospectively rated), and again in 2001, when scientists began rating tornadoes lower because of engineering concerns and unintended consequences of National Weather Service policy changes. Also, beginning in 2007, NOAA switched from the F-scale to the EF-scale for rating tornado damage, causing additional problems with attempting to assess if tornadoes are changing over time. Data provided by Harold Brooks, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory.

Other posts looking back at the remarkable weather events of 2011
Deadliest weather disaster of 2011: the East African drought
Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?
Wettest year on record in Philadelphia; 2011 sets record for wet/dry extremes in U.S.
Hurricane Irene: New York City dodges a potential storm surge mega-disaster

The NWS posted a summary of the records set during the tornado season of 2011 in February 2012.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
Tornado - Pine Apple,AL (EarlBcom)
Tornado just south of Pine Apple, AL on around 5:40pm. This storm was a part of the Alabama tornado outbreak on April 15, 2011. earlb.com VIDEO - See video of tornado at earlb.com
Tornado - Pine Apple,AL
As Is (teach50)
My husband and I were visiting my parents in Birmingham, Alabama. We decided to take a day trip to Tuscaloosa to see the damage from the April 27 tornado. It was a sight that I will never forget. Blocks and blocks of flattened houses and stores. This area has not been touched in 2 months. It was so moving that I started to cry thinking of all these poor people.
As Is

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T hane is a deadly storm heading into India..
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Link Between Earthquakes and Tropical Cyclones: New Study May Help Scientists Identify Regions at High Risk for Earthquakes
enlarge
Roadway in Leogane, Haiti. (Credit: Estelle Chaussard)

ScienceDaily (Dec. 8, 2011) - A groundbreaking study led by University of Miami (UM) scientist Shimon Wdowinski shows that earthquakes, including the recent 2010 temblors in Haiti and Taiwan, may be triggered by tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons), according to a presentation of the findings at the 2011 AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco.

"Very wet rain events are the trigger," said Wdowinski, associate research professor of marine geology and geophysics at the UM Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. "The heavy rain induces thousands of landslides and severe erosion, which removes ground material from the Earth's surface, releasing the stress load and encouraging movement along faults."

Wdowinski and a colleague from Florida International University analyzed data from quakes magnitude-6 and above in Taiwan and Haiti and found a strong temporal relationship between the two natural hazards, where large earthquakes occurred within four years after a very wet tropical cyclone season.

During the last 50 years three very wet tropical cyclone events -- Typhoons Morakot, Herb and Flossie -- were followed within four years by major earthquakes in Taiwan's mountainous regions. The 2009 Morakot typhoon was followed by a M-6.2 in 2009 and M-6.4 in 2010. The 1996 Typhoon Herb was followed by M-6.2 in 1998 and M-7.6 in 1999 and the 1969 Typhoon Flossie was followed by a M-6.2 in 1972.

More Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
Quoting StormTracker2K:


That pacific ridge will be key to what happens next week. The Euro yesterday was showing a Superstorm. However today's PNA isn't promising for a big storm next week.

We still have plenty of time to pin down a forecast It will be interesting as always. I am curious to see how much moisture will be associated with this event.
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NASA Conducts Orion Parachute Testing for Orbital Test Flight

ScienceDaily (Dec. 28, 2011) — NASA successfully conducted a drop test of the Orion crew vehicle's parachutes high above the Arizona desert Tuesday, Dec. 20, in preparation for its orbital flight test in 2014. Orion will carry astronauts deeper into space than ever before, provide emergency abort capability, sustain the crew during space travel and ensure a safe re-entry and landing.


Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
GFS has trended now toward the Euro. Also look what the Euro does with this vort energy by days 9 & 10 that I pointed out in Post #147.

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Quoting snowballing:

Do you really see this potential arctic outbreak rivaling the magnitude of 2010 for this particular region?

I know the GFS is the straggler this year and has yet to really follow suit to the other global models...


Man the Euro has one heck of a cold snap for the east. The OZ Euro below.

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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


On the Days 3-7 CONUS page select "Minimum Temperature", scroll down to the maps for each day and select "Color Fill" for the day desired.


Thanks!
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Perfect shot of what's going on up stream that's causing this change. Lot's of cold in Siberia is about to be moved over to North America.

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Quoting hurricane23:


Iam aware of the main HPC page but were can i get those single image maps of high and low US temps you posted. All i find is an animated loop.


On the Days 3-7 CONUS page select "Minimum Temperature", scroll down to the maps for each day and select "Color Fill" for the day desired.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Iam aware of the main HPC page but were can i get those single image maps of high and low US temps you posted. All i find is an animated loop.

I just change the url — http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MIN_filled. gif — Take where it says "MIN" and change to "MAX" and change the Day number.

Day 7 highs
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
GFS keeps the main thrust of the cold away from FL but the rest of the east is in for it and look at this vort energy just north of Idaho in Southern Canada about to start rounding the base of this trough. We could be setting up an scenario of a big daddy type Nor-Easter down the road.

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146. Skyepony (Mod)
Awesome TRMM pass of 04S today.. & since it is so awesome, click pic to see the very, very large, Quicktime movie of the pass.




Thane had a great pass late yesterday.. huge quicktime linked there too..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36055
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


HPC main, temp maps are on the Days 3-7 CONUS page.


Iam aware of the main HPC page but were can i get those single image maps of high and low US temps you posted. All i find is an animated loop.
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The GFS is beginning to come in line with the other Global Models now. Massive pattern is going to take place next week which could send a cold snap similar to that of the ones we had back in 2010. The Eastern US is about to experience some brutal cold.

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Next Wednesday min temps



Regardless of whether we get the "Superstorm" the ECMWF has been predicting, it is going to get significantly colder towards the beginning/middle of next week. The HPC has a low of 23F with a high of 42F here in southeastern North Carolina on Wednesday.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
Quoting hurricane23:


Can you provide a link to thess min low temp maps. Thanks


HPC main, temp maps are on the Days 3-7 CONUS page.
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Cat 1 Thane, and TS 04S
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Stronger pacific ridge on this run of the GFS.

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Next Wednesday min temps




Can you provide a link to thess min low temp maps. Thanks
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138. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
17:30 PM IST December 28 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Orange Message

At 12:00 PM UTC, The severe cyclonic storm over southwest Bay of Bengal moved further westward and intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm. Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane lays centered at 12.5N 84.5E, about 450 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 550 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 900 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island).

The system is likely to move west-westwards, intensify further during next 12 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around Friday morning However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. The system shows regular central dense overcast pattern. The lowest cloud top temperature is -86C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 15.0N and between 80.5E to 87.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with a central pressure of 980 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

6 HRS: 12.5N 83.8E - 70-75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.5N 83.1E - 70-75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.5N 80.3E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 12.5N 77.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43641
Quoting hydrus:
The beginning.


That pacific ridge will be key to what happens next week. The Euro yesterday was showing a Superstorm. However today's PNA isn't promising for a big storm next week.

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Fukushima report faults TEPCO, government
by Staff Writers
Tokyo (UPI) Dec 27, 2011

A report on Japan's Fukushima nuclear disaster chided both the Japanese central government and Tokyo Electric Power Co., operator of the nuclear plant.

The 500-page report, released Monday by a government-appointed investigative panel, was the result of interviews with hundreds of utility workers and government officials.

A magnitude-9 earthquake and resulting tsunami on March 11 led to a meltdown at the Fukushima facility, the worst nuclear catastrophe since Chernobyl.

"TEPCO did not take precautionary measures in anticipation that a severe accident could be caused by tsunami such as the one (that hit Fukushima) Â… Neither did the regulatory authorities," the report states.

Regarding the No. 1 reactor, for example, the report says the task force at the plant and the head office of TEPCO had initially failed to realize that an isolation condenser, intended to cool the reactor during a blackout, wasn't working.

Also, Prime Minister Naoto Kan and his Cabinet ministers weren't informed about the System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information, which predicted how the wind would distribute radioactive material that had been ejected from the reactors, the report said.

The report also points to inadequate information gathering and poor communication among the government, regulators and TEPCO as factors that worsened the crisis.

"Authorities failed to think of the disaster response from the perspective of victims," said University of Tokyo Professor Emeritus Yotaro Hatamura, who headed the panel.

In its conclusion, the report said: "The nuclear disaster is far from over."

MORE.... Link
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Quoting hydrus:
The beginning.


Alberta, Canada has seen some fierce chinooking conditions, temperatures rising up to 68F plus the addition of dry air and sunlight. Meanwhile, my part of Ontario recorded a low of 14.6F last night.

The local mets here predicted 2 inches of snow...we actually got 3 inches by my measurements, which means my prediction was more accurate, as I called for 3-4 inches by the end of the day today, UTC-wise.

Note: C to F --> F - 32 = 9/5[C]
1 in = 2.54 cm
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Quoting trunkmonkey:


I admit, I do not have command of the english language as you do, I commend you for it, I also like your pie baking, that's awsome!
But there are so many varibles when it comes to global warming, we can't be that smart.
Here are some of my issues with the global warming
theories.
1. Grant monies to colleges to promote a political scheme to further socialism.
2. Polairity shifts.
3. the number of active volcano's were at 122 now, the largest in many years, goes with the polairity issues.
4. Political fodder.
5. Solar storms.
6. The demise of the Amazon forest and the effects it has created.
7.Just plain old weather cycles.

I admit there is global warming, just like we had global cooling when I was in college in the 70's.
But all of this being man made, and the majority of the global warming coming from the United States of America, I just don't buy it.
I never hear anything about the enviormental conditions china is doing, nor Russia, nor India, or South America, it's all about the United States.
I work with issues concerning enviormental spills and enforcement of cleanup of such tragadies,So I'm enviormentally friendly, I believe in government controls to protect us, but I'm against the lining the pockets of college professors, Schools, and others at the expense of my hard earned money.

Thank you!


Rolston (1989): p. 165 [ISBN 0879755563]
Do not use complexity to dodge responsibility.

That being said, a 2012-pole-shift type scenario is far less likely to be causing global warming than anthropo-carbon emissions, which have a proven causal link first studied in the late 1700s. The Amazon rainforest works by evapotranspiration: the presence of rainforest creates moisture, which sustains the rainforest. Earth is full of these self-sustaining systems, and to excuse their destruction based on complexity, is...well...morally reprehensible.

We must consider the planet holistically, as we humans are part of nature and are inseparable from it. Throwing in politically-loaded words only creates attitude polarization, and a bipartisan Congress. Yes, the Earth does go through cycles, including the 60-year cycle, but something is causing an almost exponentially-increasing, near-linear trend that has continued for the past century, and so far, it doesn't appear to be natural: Link
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The beginning.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
116.

Oh lordy, I can see the monkeys are out of the barrels again.
AGW instigates all kinds of posts. I have seen some mean ones I tell ya.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Next Wednesday min temps


And the people at the HPC are working hard to find the extent of the major pattern change that is coming. Would not be surprised to see the SPC mention possible severe weather with this major shift...PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
858 AM EST WED DEC 28 2011

VALID 12Z SUN JAN 01 2012 - 12Z WED JAN 04 2012


OUR MID MORNING UPDATE IS FOLLOWING THE SAME GENERAL PLAN AS
YESTERDAY. WE ACCEPT HPC CONTINUITY DAYS 3-4....BLEND IT WITH 50%
ECENS MEAN BY DAY 5...AND GO TO FULL STRENGTH ECENS MEAN BY WED
DAY 7. THE 00Z/28 ECENS MEAN WAS CHOSEN FOR ITS RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY MON DAY 5 AND BEYOND. RECENT RUNS OF THE DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE DECIDING HOW FAR W TO AMPLIFY THE
DEEPENING TROF IN THE ERN CONUS. HOWEVER ..THE LAST TWO ECENS
MEANS (FROM 12Z/27 AND 00Z/28) ARE QUITE COMPATIBLE IN SHOWING THE
MAIN 500MB TROF AXIS JUST E OF THE APPALACHIANS FOR TUE DAY 6.
THIS IS QUITE A BIT E OF WHERE YESTERDAYS 12Z/27 ECMWF HAD THE
MAIN VORT ENERGY (AR) FOR TUE DAY 7. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
FLATTENING THE MEAN RIDGE UPSTREAM MON/TUE...ALLOWING ENOUGH
WESTERLY FLOW THRU THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO DISCOURAGE ANY ENERGY
IN THE DOWNSTREAM TROF FROM DIGGING AS FAR W AS SHOWN BY THE
12Z/27 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STILL
BROADER/FLATTER/LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WITH THE AMPLIFIED ERN TROF FROM DAY 5 ONWARD.A SOMEWHAT
CONDENSED VERSION THE EARLY PRELIM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW.


THRU DAY 5...INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL LEAD TO AMPLIFIED
TROUGHS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND GREAT LAKES/EAST WITH
RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS PATTERN...OUTSIDE THE 00Z GFS WHICH
WAS BROAD AND FLAT WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH DESPITE ITS AMPLIFIED
RIDGE UPSTREAM. SINCE THERE IS GOOD GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...WE
USED A 00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE FOR THE PRESSURES INTO LATE
MONDAY. AT THAT POINT...THE 00Z ECMWF BROUGHT A STRONG VORTICITY
LOBE OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH WESTERN CANADA THEN TURNED
IT SE INTO THE PLAINS. SINCE IT TENDS TO BE STRONG WITH SYSTEMS
ALOFT BEYOND 120 HOURS...WE USED 50% OF THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION DAYS 6-7 TO TONE THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SOLUTION DOWN
NEXT TUE/WED.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Finding out a little more about the LAST Indianola hurricane. Since my son just moved his family to Bay City. Quite the past that area has had tropically speaking. Hard to tell what really happened. Here's a few things I've gathered. And BTW 1886 was just brutal!

By 1875 Indianola had become the second largest port in Texas with a
population of 5,000 and its ease of access through the shallow waters of
the Gulf. Steamships, such as Charles Morgan%u2019s line out of New York
City, chose Indianola over other Texas ports. On September 16, 1875, the
town was hit by a hurricane with an estimated 115 mph winds and strong
storm surge. Eight hundred deaths were recorded along the Texas coast
while 75% of the town of Indianola had been destroyed.
Eleven years later in 1886, a second hurricane headed towards
Indianola. Experts believe the hurricane of 1886 was the fifth largest
storm to ever strike the United States, a Category 4. At the time it hit
Indianola, on August 20, 1886, it was the strongest hurricane ever
recorded with winds an estimated 155 mph, a pressure of 925 mbar, and a
storm surge of 15 feet.

The 1886 Hurricane was a classic Texas Style Cape Verde
Hurricane: The storm originated in mid August just outside of the
Carribbean Sea, moved through the Carribbean and Gulf, then made
landfall in Indianola, Texas as at least a borderline Catagory 4-5,
completely destroying the town. The storm%u2019s intensity was unprecedented
with a barometer reading of 925 mbs, and remains the strongest hurricane
to ever hit Texas and at least the 5th strongest in US history. Due to
the complete destruction of Indianola, and therby destruction of storm
data, it is entirely possible that the Indianola Hurricane was stronger
than records show. Damages from the hurricane in 1886 are unknown but
catastrophic (it completely destroyed the most important port city in
Texas). If a similar hurricane were to strike today, the damage would be
equally as catastrophic and billions of dollars in damages would be
caused. The coastline from Port Aransas to Bay City would be completely
leveled by a 25 foot surge. Surge flooding might even extend to Victoria
and Cureo via the Guadalupe River. With winds in excess of 155 mph,
everything not destroyed by surge would be toppled by the extreme winds.
Damages caused by these winds would probably be similar to those caused
by Andrew. Severe inland flooding would also probably take place in the
Texas Hill Country.

%u2013Source - wunderground.com

In 1875 the casualty toll was 400 deaths, the 1886 Hurricane took
less lives, 46, because residents were able to relocate to higher
ground. Indianola was reportedly %u201Cobliterated%u201D by the massive hurricane.
When it was over, residents gave up their dream and packed their bags,
the port city known as the Queen of the West was no more.

Just a little from Hurdat1.
Busiest hurricane season ever for the United States:
The 1886
hurricane season has been analyzed to be the busiest on record for the
continental United States. Seven hurricanes were recorded to have hit
the U.S.%u2014a Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale Category 2 hurricane
into Texas and Louisiana in June, two Category 2 hurricanes into northwest
Florida in June, a Category 1 hurricane into northwest Florida in July,
the Category 4 "Indianola"*
hurricane into Texas in August, a Category 1 hurricane into Texas in
September and a Category 3 hurricane into Louisiana in October. The
previous busiest hurricane season for the United States was 1985 with
six landfalling hurricanes.


Sad thing is, the two Indianola hurricanes were regarded by local meteorologists across the US as the only anomalies in a universal law that all hurricanes recurve. By September 1900, Galveston had replaced Indianola as the chief port of Texas, though it faced competition from Houston, which had a recent oil boom.

When the storm approached the Gulf of Mexico, crossing Cuba first as a tropical storm, few people expected anything of it. The forecast? Windy near Key West, as the storm was to make it over the New York area after recurving (it eventually did). As for Galveston, little to nothing was expected. The updated forecast called for overcast conditions and rain on the Saturday that the storm was finally predicted to make landfall.

Recommended book: Larson, Eric. Isaac's storm : a man, a time, and the deadliest hurricane in history. New York: Crown Publishers, 1999. 323 pp. ISBN 0609602330.

In the Gulf of Mexico, a ship reported an unprecendentedly low barometric pressure reading while the 1900 Galveston Hurricane was a category four. Issac's Storm tells the story of a man who tried to warn people onshore, and according to himself, saved perhaps thousands of lives. Unfortunately, he lost his pregnant wife in the storm when floodwaters rose feet in mere minutes.

The book goes on to discuss the effects tropical cyclones may have on earthquakes, including the (in)famous 1923 Tokyo Bay quake and simultaneous typhoon.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
Death-toll in killer flood from Tropical Storm Washi in Philippines rises to 1249
Posted on December 28, 2011

December 28, 2011 PHILIPPINES The death toll from killer floods in the Philippines rose to 1,249 on Tuesday, more than a week after the disaster struck, with officials expecting more corpses to be found. The civil defense office initially said the confirmed number of fatalities had surged by more than 200 to 1,453, before revising the figure downwards due to double-counting. Civil defense Chief Benito Ramos said his National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council would no longer count the missing as no-one could give reliable figures on how many people are unaccounted for. But Ramos told AFP he was sure the death toll would continue rising as more bodies were still being retrieved from the sea off the southern island of Mindanao or found trapped beneath fallen logs and mud. Tropical Storm Washi brought heavy rains, overflowing rivers and flash floods to the southern Philippines from December 16 to 18, sweeping away whole villages built on sandbars and riverbanks. Terra Daily

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
If i looked at a wall in a house covered with paint and textured and someone told me to find a nail......and i find it i believe. Then i take a hammer to put another nail in the wall and the Nail won't drive into the wall it just bends. Do you think i really found a nail by just assuming it was a wall made of wood, but was a concrete block wall with no nails?

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116.

Oh lordy, I can see the monkeys are out of the barrels again.
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Next Wednesday min temps


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Quoting floridabeachtye:

Once again, just another disgruntled government employee pushing forward his extreme left-wing, socialist agenda to the young, dumb, naive, or others' gullible and stupid enough to listen. Just another angry soul that sits on a weather blog day and night ready to pounce on anyone that just so happens to disagree with anything that supports his left-wing political ideology. How sad. And using climate change--a topic that is so government entrenched it is not even funny--as a pretext to lure the young, gullible, and naive into the Marxist way of life you so would love the United States to become.

How sad.

Once again, I've seen them come, and I've seen them go. You are not fooling anyone, anymore. ;-)


touché
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120. Skyepony (Mod)
Mother Nature has been wreaking havoc in Northwest Georgia, beginning with the F-2 tornado last Thursday and followed by torrential rains and winds on Monday night.

Residents and businesses in West Rome off Shorter Avenue and the Summerville Park area are still cleaning up debris from Thursday’s storm.

Even though the damage is severe, it does not rise to the level needed to receive a presidential declaration of disaster, according to Floyd County EMA Director Scotty Hancock.

Read more: RN-T.com - Storm damage not eligible for federal aid
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36055
Quoting trunkmonkey:


I admit, I do not have command of the english language as you do, I commend you for it, I also like your pie baking, that's awsome!
But there are so many varibles when it comes to global warming, we can't be that smart.
Here are some of my issues with the global warming
theories.
1. Grant monies to colleges to promote a political scheme to further socialism.
2. Polairity shifts.
3. the number of active volcano's were at 122 now, the largest in many years, goes with the polairity issues.
4. Political fodder.
5. Solar storms.
6. The demise of the Amazon forest and the effects it has created.
7.Just plain old weather cycles.

I admit there is global warming, just like we had global cooling when I was in college in the 70's.
But all of this being man made, and the majority of the global warming coming from the United States of America, I just don't buy it.
I never hear anything about the enviormental conditions china is doing, nor Russia, nor India, or South America, it's all about the United States.
I work with issues concerning enviormental spills and enforcement of cleanup of such tragadies,So I'm enviormentally friendly, I believe in government controls to protect us, but I'm against the lining the pockets of college professors, Schools, and others at the expense of my hard earned money.

Thank you!


1. Not just universities get grants, but climate researchers in gov't and private sector get the same money and get the same conclusion
2. Unproven theory
3. Not true. There has been over 100 active volcanoes since recording began.
4. Yes, there is a political bias and mudslinging, but that doesn't mean the truth isn't out there
5. Solar levels are higher, but that has a negligible impact on the climate. Thank the Earth's magnetic field for that.
6. This is the most true statement you have. The Amazon rainforests have been cut and burned, but in reality there is over 80% of the rainforest left. The biggest measurable and proven impact of the rainforest destruction is habitat loss for animals.
7. Do "Normal" weather cycles have several 1000 year weather events happen in 1 year in many locations?

And the United States has been the biggest environmental polluter in the world since the late 1800s. Besides, who better to give the money for climate research than to our brightest young minds in our fine American universities and colleges?
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My goal for 2012: To convince Angela to share with me some of her enormous grant windfall. It's the least she could do...
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Quoting Articuno:
\
Not really...


With the lady cussing at the end is with that southern twang. Not the tornado coming no that's not funny but the lady at the end of the video was funny IMO.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
This video is funny! Ringold, GA tornado.

Link

Not really...
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This video is funny! Ringold, GA tornado.

Link
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113. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #39
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER GRANT (04U)
11:00 PM CST December 28 2011
===================================

At 9:30 PM CST, Tropical Low, Former Grant (1000 hPa) located at 14.2S 136.5E, or 35 km south southeast of Alyangula and 225 km south of Nhulunbuy. The low is reported as moving east at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Ex-tropical cyclone Grant is located in the Gulf of Carpentaria and is expected to move steadily east, and may redevelop into a tropical cyclone overnight on Thursday or Friday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas of Queensland in the next 24 hours, however gales may develop later.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding of low lying areas over the eastern Arnhem tonight, including Groote Eylandt. HEAVY RAIN potentially leading to flooding is expected to develop across the Peninsula and northern parts of the Gulf Country districts in Queensland during Thursday and Friday.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Milingimbi and Groote Eylandt in the Northern Territory and also between Thursday Island and Mornington Island in Queensland. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along the foreshore.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Thursday Island to Gilbert River Mouth in Queensland.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 14.0S 138.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 13.9S 141.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 13.7S 144.8E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================

Position primarily based on surface observations.

The low remains in a moderately sheared environment of 15-25 kt to the SE. Deep convection associated with this system has been displaced well away from the LLCC, which is near the coast. Due to the presence of a mid level trough, shear is expected to remain at least at moderate levels throughout the systems presence in the Gulf of Caprentaria. As such, the development rate of this system is forecast to be slower than the standard rate. This means that TC development could occur in the eastern Gulf of Caprentaria after two nights over warm waters.

Dry air is also evident to the west of the system as indicated in water vapor imagery and the Darwin sounding at 27/23Z. The Gove sounding north of the system at the equivalent time indicates a relatively deep, moist environment.

The system is expected to move steadily to the east under the influence of the mid level trough and strong W steering to the north.

An alternative scenario is that sheer dominates the system and a monsoonal low structure develops. This is a feature of a number of models.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43641
112. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 04-20112012
16:00 PM RET December 28 2011
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 04 (1000 hPa) located at 12.2S 88.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 12.0S 86.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 12.4S 84.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 13.3S 79.6E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 14.6S 76.5E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

The cloud pattern of the disturbance has little changed within the last 6 hours. The low level circulation is still on the eastern border of the cloud mass of deep convection. The low level circulation center has been relocated at 0600 UTC (corrective position at 0600 UTC: near 12.3S 89.9E). The low level circulation center has slowed down. The low level flow pattern seems to be rather ill-defined (CF. TRMM 37ghz at 9:31 UTC). The lower levels supply is currently good on the two faces of the system. Energetic potential is good. System is still undergoing a moderate upper level shear. The upper levels constraint should progressively weaken within the next 36-48 hours. At 48 hours, the upper outflow channel should set up poleward. A second outflow should temporarily set up equatorward on Saturday and Sunday. Intensification should also remain moderate within the next 36 hours, but should heighten beyond. At the end of the forecast range (beginning of next week) upper level environmental conditions should become less favorable (strengthening of the upper level wind shear). Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for a west to southwest track over the northern periphery of the subtropical high pressures of low ad mid-troposphere.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Disturbance 04 will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43641

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.