A white Christmas will be a U.S. rarity in 2011; November the globe's 12th warmest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:26 PM GMT on December 22, 2011

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A white Christmas will be a rarity across most of the U.S. this year, as December temperatures have been more typical of November, and very little snow has fallen. Large portions of the eastern half of the country have been more than 4°F above average so far in December, with temperatures averaging 8°F above average over portions of North Dakota.This is quite a switch from the previous two winters, which were both much colder and snowier than average. All three winters featured La Niña conditions in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, so that cannot explain the difference. A key reason for the December warmth this year and the cold and snowy Decembers of 2010 and 2009 is a weather pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average over the 30-day period ending on December 22, 2011. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.



Figure 2. Top: snow depth measured in the U.S. on December 22, 2011, after a month with a strong positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Bottom: Snow depth measured in the U.S. on December 22, 2010, after a month with a strong negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Image credit: NOAA/NOHRSC.

The Arctic Oscillation and its influence on winter weather
The Arctic Oscillation (AO), and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are climate patterns in the Northern Hemisphere defined by fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High, the AO and NAO control the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive AO/NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild winter in the U.S. and Western Europe. Positive AO/NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative AO/NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative AO/NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe and the U.S. East Coast, but leads to very warm conditions in the Arctic, since all the cold air spilling out of the Arctic gets replaced by warm air flowing poleward. The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extreme negative NAO and AO since record keeping began in 1865; a very extreme AO/NAO also developed during the winter of 2010 - 2011. But this year, the pattern has flipped. The AO has been almost as strong, but in the opposite sense--a positive AO, leading to very warm conditions over the U.S. Unfortunately, the AO is difficult to predict more than a week or two and advance, and we don't understand why the AO can vary so much from winter to winter. The latest predictions from the ECMWF and GFS models show this positive AO pattern continuing for at least the next ten days. Real winter conditions won't arrive in the U.S. until the first week of January, at the earliest. Between now and the end of 2011, the only major winter storm the GFS model expects in the U.S. will be in the Pacific Northwest, on December 30 - 31.

This week, NOAA's ClimateWatch Magazine posted an excellent tutorial on the Arctic Oscillation and how it is affecting our winter weather this year.



Figure 3. The departure of temperature from average in Centigrade during the November - December - January period during various phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Positive AO conditions lead to warm winters in the U.S., while negative AO conditions lead to cold winters. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

November 2011: Earth's 12th warmest on record
November 2011 was the globe's 12th warmest November on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). November 2011 global land temperatures were the 16th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere near average, the 20th or 11th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the November 2011 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 4. Departure of temperature from average for November 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

A warm November for the U.S.
In the contiguous U.S., November ranked as the 25th warmest November in the 117-year record. Thirteen states in the Northeast and Upper Midwest recorded a top-ten warmest November, and no states had a top-ten coldest November. Eight states had a top-ten wettest November--Indiana, Ohio, Missouri,Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. One state had a top-ten driest month, Minnesota. Texas had its 39th driest November on record, keeping 76% of Texas under extreme to exceptional drought as of December 13, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

A weak La Niña continues
A borderline weak/moderate La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 1.0°C below average during the first half of December. The impacts of a La Niña on U.S. weather are well-defined. It is likely that the drought in the South, especially Texas, will continue, along with above average temperatures. The Northwest can expect cooler than average temperatures, as well as the potential for another winter with a heavy snowpack across the western United States.

Arctic sea ice extent third lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its third lowest on record in November, behind 2006 and 2010, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Sea ice records date back to 1979.

Donations sought for the East Africa famine
Weather Underground has partnered with the International Rescue Committee (IRC) to help the Horn of Africa region during the ongoing famine. With the help of the Weather Underground community, we hope to raise $10,000 that will go toward helping the refugees survive the crisis. Weather Underground will match the community's donation dollar-for-dollar up to $10,000 for a total donation of $20,000. Please visit the East Africa famine donation page to help out. Ninety cents of every dollar donated goes directly to the people in need.

Posts looking back at the remarkable weather events of 2011
Deadliest weather disaster of 2011: the East African drought
Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?
Wettest year on record in Philadelphia; 2011 sets record for wet/dry extremes in U.S.
Hurricane Irene: New York City dodges a potential storm surge mega-disaster

This will be my last post until Tuesday. Have a great holiday, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting hydrus:
Here is wat U need 115...Lasting about four days, this storm brought along not only that white mess, but also record low temperatures, some that still stand today. The storm mostly affected the southern portion of the U.S. including Tampa, FL, New Orleans, and even Washington, D.C. Surprisingly, this storm was more focused in the South then it was in the North or Midwest, which is usually more commonly seen. As the storm made its path along Florida, it picked up energy and vapor from the water, allowing for ocean-effect snow.

Once the storm picked up speed and headed east, it set record snowfall as well as record low temperatures. In Fort Logan, Montana, the recorded temperature was around -61°F and in Monterey, Virginia, -29°F. In Cape May, NJ, about 34 inches of snow fell, and 20.5 inches of snow in Washington, D.C. The storm caused no reported deaths. But by the end of it all, Cuba reported heavy frost which ruined some agriculture and the port of New Orleans looked like a winter wonderland.

Read more: http://www.toptenz.net/top-10-worst-blizzards-u-s- history.php#ixzz1hOKcxG6Q
Nah not asking for all that(That means I'll have to take tons of Advil to relive back pain from shovling.)A good 12-14 inches will do in one snow storm,and then for the next one about a good 8-10 inches which should bring up the total for snow of the winter of around 24 inches.That's agood snow season for me :).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16456
We need to post to turn the page. I can't click anything, the corner is gone.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I just hope before the winter is over we at least have a total of 15-25 inches for the intire winter.Except for like last one where it was a pitiful snow season.
Here is wat U need 115...Lasting about four days, this storm brought along not only that white mess, but also record low temperatures, some that still stand today. The storm mostly affected the southern portion of the U.S. including Tampa, FL, New Orleans, and even Washington, D.C. Surprisingly, this storm was more focused in the South then it was in the North or Midwest, which is usually more commonly seen. As the storm made its path along Florida, it picked up energy and vapor from the water, allowing for ocean-effect snow.

Once the storm picked up speed and headed east, it set record snowfall as well as record low temperatures. In Fort Logan, Montana, the recorded temperature was around -61°F and in Monterey, Virginia, -29°F. In Cape May, NJ, about 34 inches of snow fell, and 20.5 inches of snow in Washington, D.C. The storm caused no reported deaths. But by the end of it all, Cuba reported heavy frost which ruined some agriculture and the port of New Orleans looked like a winter wonderland.

Read more: http://www.toptenz.net/top-10-worst-blizzards-u-s- history.php#ixzz1hOKcxG6Q
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20569
Quoting hydrus:
Please dont cry....jk.....i was just kiddin 115..i hope yoo goys git da monstah blizzzzzzz..;)
I just hope before the winter is over we at least have a total of 15-25 inches for the intire winter.Except for like last one where it was a pitiful snow season.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I can tell this winter is gonna suck soooooo bad for the D.C area.it's a shame when you can actually go outside in the morining time in late December(mind you) and wear a short sleeve shirt.SMH.
Please dont cry....jk.....i was just kiddin 115..i hope yoo goys git da monstah blizzzzzzz..;)
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
I can tell this winter is gonna suck soooooo bad for the D.C area.it's a shame when you can actually go outside in the morining time in late December(mind you) and wear a short sleeve shirt.SMH.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16456
Quoting presslord:
For some time now, my wife has kept the temperature in our home at increasingly lower levels....until now, I have assumed this to be due to some sort of middle aged hormonal issues...I have decided, however, (thanks to information gleaned here) that it is, rather, just a naturally occurring refutation of AGW...and have, therefore, cancelled her hysterectomy...
I have pondered this intense infatuation about global warming within the scientific community and have realized something important. The Sun grows hotter and hotter during its lifetime from now on until it finally becomes a white dwarf. Henceforth therewith the Earth which is already warmed by the Sun will continue to increase in temperature. There is nothing anybody (with the exception of maybe Spongebob Squarepants ) will be able to do to stop it. We will just have to control our environment when ever possible and adjust to it whenever necessary....... Now i will imbibe more delicious ice cold home brew, and enjoy a finely rolled jay of grade A Colombian,,,,quad era demonstratii pfft pfftp
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Cat blew the blog.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
For those interested, NOAA has published Service Assessment on this year's April tornado outbreaks. It's lengthy and detailed, but very interesting nonetheless...
Good afternoon Nea..A while back you mentioned something about the Prometheus Society, I Googled it, and all I get is Greek mythology Atlas,s brother. What is it and what kind of society is it.
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For those interested, NOAA has published Service Assessment on this year's April tornado outbreaks. It's lengthy and detailed, but very interesting nonetheless...
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Merry Christmas weather junkies ...

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For some time now, my wife has kept the temperature in our home at increasingly lower levels....until now, I have assumed this to be due to some sort of middle aged hormonal issues...I have decided, however, (thanks to information gleaned here) that it is, rather, just a naturally occurring refutation of AGW...and have, therefore, cancelled her hysterectomy...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
Quoting goodsign:
I suppose as we move more and more official NWS sensors to bigger airports, we'll see official temperatures continue to rise accordingly.

Sure. And official NWS senors that are nowhere near an airport will continue to rise as well, just as they've done for the past many decades in response to the astronomically vast amounts of CO2 we're pumping into the environment.
Quoting goodsign:
Here in Alabama, its been colder than normal except at the airport, where the official temperature is recorded. For some reason the big new airport averages 2 degrees warmer than any place else around.

You didn't specify where in Alabama you were, but it looks to have been a pretty warm December for the greatest part. Montgomery has averaged nine degrees above normal over the past 11 days, while Birmingham has averaged eight degrees over normal.
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Quoting hydrus:
Looks a little bit like Santa if ya use some imagination...

It does. LOL!
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We just donated....it was easy...Merry Christmas!!!!

To donate to the International Rescue Committee and help Weather Underground fight hunger in East Africa, please visit our IRC donation page. All donations are tax deductible, but you have to use that page so your donation is added to our running tally. And of course, read on...

Weather Underground has teamed up with the International Rescue Committee to help raise funds for the hard hit region of the Horn of Africa, which has been struck by drought and devastating famine. Through various weather-related tragedies over the past several years, the Weather Underground community has been fabulous at offering support via charitable donations. We are asking you, that same community, to step up once again to help assist in the rescue effort currently ongoing in the Horn of Africa. Please, if you can donate at least $10 to this donation drive, visit the IRC/Weather Underground page hereLink
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Quoting Ameister12:

I find polar lows to be very cool features.





Here's one that looks like a face.



Looks a little bit like Santa if ya use some imagination...
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Interesting blob over Central America last night.

Link
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Australia:

A cyclone warning has been issued for the area between Cape Don to Milingimbi. Residents have been asked to make final preparations or identify a public emergency shelter, as gale force winds could begin within 24 hours.

The Bureau of Meteorology says gale force winds of upto 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop late Saturday or early Sunday....

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9745


On Hacking matters: What we knew about... China is behind this... Interesting

New Evidence Suggests China's Hacking Into US Drones Using Adobe Reader And Internet Explorer


A rash of new clues surrounding the Sykipot computer virus having its way with the U.S. drone fleet suggests the malware originated in China, and explains how it has been used.

Mathew J. Schwartz of Information Week reports the virus appears to have been designed with the sole purpose of stealing UAV data using a "zero-day" vulnerability in Adobe Reader.

A zero-day attack is launched using a vulnerability unknown to a software's developer and shared among attackers who exploit the fault before a patch is put in place.

Read more: http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-12-22/new s/30545577_1_virus-pdf-files-adobe-reader#ixzz1hO3 OWUlM

Link
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Quoting hydrus:
Polar Lows

Small cyclones forming over open sea during the cold season within polar or arctic air masses are called "polar lows." Typically several hundred kilometers in diameter, and often possessing strong winds, polar lows tend to form beneath cold upper-level troughs or lows when frigid arctic air flows southward over a warm body of water.

Polar lows last on average only a day or two. They can develop rapidly, reaching maximum strength within 12 to 24 hours of the time of formation. They often dissipate just as quickly, especially upon making landfall. In some instances several may exist in a region at the same time or develop in rapid succession.

In satellite imagery polar lows show characteristic spiral or comma shaped patterns of deep clouds, sometimes with an inner "eye" similar to those seen in tropical cyclones. Convective cloud bands occupy the surroundings (see figure below). Analysis of aircraft and radiosonde data collected during field experiments reveals that polar lows may possess warm cores. This finding, coupled with their appearance in satellite imagery, has prompted some investigators to refer to polar lows as "arctic hurricanes," although they seldom, if ever, possess hurricane strength winds.

Polar lows are difficult to predict even with current high resolution and high performing operational numerical models, because they usually occur in remote oceanic regions where data are too sparse to define the model initial state on a sufficiently fine scale. However, present-day models can depict synoptic-scale patterns favorable to the development of the smaller scale systems, allowing forecasters to use the predictions in conjunction with satellite imagery and conventional observations to make subjective forecasts of their occurrence.A NOAA-9 polar orbiter satellite image (visible band) of a polar low over the Barents Sea on 27 February 1987. The southern tip of Spitsbergen is visible at the top of the image. The polar low is centered just north of the Norwegian coast. Image contributed by S. Businger, Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii.

I find polar lows to be very cool features.





Here's one that looks like a face.



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I suppose as we move more and more official NWS sensors to bigger airports, we'll see official temperatures continue to rise accordingly.
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Here in Alabama, its been colder than normal except at the airport, where the official temperature is recorded. For some reason the big new airport averages 2 degrees warmer than any place else around.
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Giant python lose in Melbourne. Could be 14ft long. Yikes!

Link
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Quoting:-154. hydrus,
"London's death rate shot up during the week of Dec. 5, 1952, with the smog killing thousands already weakened by respiratory illnesses."
Thank you for that bit of history. We had to wear torn up sheets over our mouths when going outside and the corridors in long buildings were dim with fog indoors some days.During the war no bombers found our town as the factories made so much smoke it was virtually invisible from the air.
Having said that,it is plain to see that this pollution has been going on for a long time, now as Skye pointed out there are all the other gases to add into the equation, plus possible churning of the newly to be exposed. Arctic sea.
We are probably burning more coal now globally than ever and what goes up also probably must come down, possibly mixed into all sorts of new cocktails.
This Arctic thing is probably going to be the road to hell once it gets out of hand nothings going to stop its effects on the worlds climate.
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Showers & Thunderstorms pooling here in the C Gulf. Looks like a low forming there.



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Dubsdread Golf Course, Orlando, FL

Current:
Temperature: 87.4 °F
Dew Point: 60.9 °F
Humidity: 41%
Wind Gust: 3.8mph
Wind: ESE - - SE
Pressure: 29.91in
Precipitation: 0.00in
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Polar Lows

Small cyclones forming over open sea during the cold season within polar or arctic air masses are called "polar lows." Typically several hundred kilometers in diameter, and often possessing strong winds, polar lows tend to form beneath cold upper-level troughs or lows when frigid arctic air flows southward over a warm body of water.

Polar lows last on average only a day or two. They can develop rapidly, reaching maximum strength within 12 to 24 hours of the time of formation. They often dissipate just as quickly, especially upon making landfall. In some instances several may exist in a region at the same time or develop in rapid succession.

In satellite imagery polar lows show characteristic spiral or comma shaped patterns of deep clouds, sometimes with an inner "eye" similar to those seen in tropical cyclones. Convective cloud bands occupy the surroundings (see figure below). Analysis of aircraft and radiosonde data collected during field experiments reveals that polar lows may possess warm cores. This finding, coupled with their appearance in satellite imagery, has prompted some investigators to refer to polar lows as "arctic hurricanes," although they seldom, if ever, possess hurricane strength winds.

Polar lows are difficult to predict even with current high resolution and high performing operational numerical models, because they usually occur in remote oceanic regions where data are too sparse to define the model initial state on a sufficiently fine scale. However, present-day models can depict synoptic-scale patterns favorable to the development of the smaller scale systems, allowing forecasters to use the predictions in conjunction with satellite imagery and conventional observations to make subjective forecasts of their occurrence.A NOAA-9 polar orbiter satellite image (visible band) of a polar low over the Barents Sea on 27 February 1987. The southern tip of Spitsbergen is visible at the top of the image. The polar low is centered just north of the Norwegian coast. Image contributed by S. Businger, Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20569
Record is 84 getting very close right now!

Current Weather Conditions:
ORLANDO SANFORD AIRPORT, FL, United States (11:53am)


Wind from the S (190 degrees) at 10 MPH (9 KT)
Visibility 10 mile(s)
Sky conditions clear
Temperature 82.0 F (27.8 C)
Dew Point 61.0 F (16.1 C)
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Quoting Ameister12:
Two impressive Pacific storms.
The one on the left looks rather intense.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20569
The 1939 St. Louis smog was a severe smog episode that affected St. Louis, Missouri in the United States in 1939. Visibility was so limited that streetlights remained lit throughout the day and motorists needed their headlights to navigate city streets.A man lights a cigarette as streetlights along Olive glow during the daylight hours of November 28, 1939.
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Two impressive Pacific storms.
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Maureen Scholes, a nurse at the Royal London Hospital in 1952, says the smog penetrated through clothes, blackening undergarments.

London's death rate shot up during the week of Dec. 5, 1952, with the smog killing thousands already weakened by respiratory illnesses.
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Quoting PlazaRed:
A personal note about soot.
I was living in the UK in the smog post war years and particularly in the late 50s.Some mornings hard to see the walls 3 ft from the front door of the house,things were so bad that the street lights above were invisible, as were feet, on some mornings.We followed the walls to school.
The soot/smoke that was belched by factory chimneys settled onto the snow and after sometimes weeks when the sun broke through the smog, blankets of snow were covered with a thick black coating of soot.
I spent 3 years of my first 5 years with bronchitis and asthma. X-Rays of my lungs show scars from this.
We no longer have this experience in the UK as a result of the "clean air act,"but it for sure will have been exported to other countries.
Scientists estimate that The Killer Smog of 1952 may have killed up to 12,000 people..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20569
Humidity pushing summertime levels here in FL today that combined with temps around 84 here in Orlando could make the real feel temp near 90 later this afternoon. Unbelieveable how warm it's been lately!



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A personal note about soot.
I was living in the UK in the smog post war years and particularly in the late 50s.Some mornings hard to see the walls 3 ft from the front door of the house,things were so bad that the street lights above were invisible, as were feet, on some mornings.We followed the walls to school.
The soot/smoke that was belched by factory chimneys settled onto the snow and after sometimes weeks when the sun broke through the smog, blankets of snow were covered with a thick black coating of soot.
I spent 3 years of my first 5 years with bronchitis and asthma. X-Rays of my lungs show scars from this.
We no longer have this experience in the UK as a result of the "clean air act,"but it for sure will have been exported to other countries.
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Excellent anti-cyclone developing.
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149. Skyepony (Mod)
92B



PlazaRed~ Soot is one of the many things.. The more these research planes have looked at the situation the more undeniable all this becomes. Satellites have tracked the plumes but it takes the planes to see levels everything is settling & see some things the satellites are missing. With the methane & all it is really begging to look really grim.


87.1F here..not even noon yet.
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Might not be over land, but boy is it close

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1. On'da foist day'a Christmas mah
Mawmaw gave'to me, a Crawfish'dey
Caught in Arabi
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Interesting pictures of "UFO" clouds in UK: Link
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Quoting Skyepony:
HIPPO reveals climate surprises
Swooping pole-to-pole plane flights uncover unexpected trends in pollutant releases and spread

Interesting about the airborne soot particles in the link.
These which for sure are settling on the ice and snow will be causing and accelerated melting of the frozen surface due to increased absorption of sunlight energy.
The soot particles may also layer into the snow over time, so even as one coat melts away the soot is automatically added to another one,each time getting more concentrated; onion skin style.
Soot itself is also harmful to delicate growing organisms and for sure lichens won't like it.
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144. Inyo
Well, if sloppy slushy yuck snow counts, it looks like my part of Vermont will eke by with a technically white christmas. The kids are trying to sled aross the street and that isn't working too well... but on the plus side the roads are not icy, though they will be when the cold finally arrives tonight.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Earthquake Rattles NZ's Christchurch

(WELLINGTON, New Zealand) — A series of strong earthquakes struck the New Zealand city of Christchurch on Friday, rattling buildings, sending goods tumbling from shelves and prompting terrified holiday shoppers to flee into the streets. There was no tsunami alert issued and the city appeared to have been spared major damage.






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142. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
At 9:30 PM CST, Tropical Low 04U (999 hPa) located at 10.6S 132.0E or 90 km northwest of Croker Island and 235 km north northeast of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving east at 1 knot.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

The low is expected to develop but remain slow moving north of the coast over the next 24 to 48 hours.

GALES with gusts to 110 km per hour are expected to develop between Cape Don and Milingimbi late Saturday or early Sunday.

GALES may develop later in coastal areas between Dundee Beach and Cape Don, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands, and between Milingimbi and Nhulunbuy.

The Territory Controller advises residents from Cape Don to Milingimbi that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use. For communities under Watch, now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================='

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Cape Don to Milingimbi.

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Dundee Beach to Cape Don, including Darwin, and Milingimbi to Nhulunbuy.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 11.0S 133.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 11.7S 133.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 13.6S 134.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

The low has good broad scale structure but is still elongated along the trough axis. 24 hour visible imagery comparison during the day today showed greater curvature of the low cloud lines and increased convection around the center against the diurnal trend. Fresh convection has begun to occur north of Cobourg Peninsula near the low level center.

Dvorak analysis remains difficult. Convection is improving around the broad mid level circulation but has not yet focused to the low level circulation, making banding hard to determine. Assuming the current convective band to the west and southwest is moving around the circulation, a 0.3 to 0.4 wrap can be made giving a DT of 2.0. Due to low confidence in DT, FT is based on MET=PT=2.0

Pressures continue to drop by around 1.5 to 2hPa per day. The AScat pass from this morning shows a band of 25kt northwesterlies in the convergent monsoon flow to the north of the low.

The majority of guidance is maintaining slow movement offshore for the next 24 to 36 hours due to a fine balance between the monsoon flow and the mid-level ridge to the south. In the longer term the consensus is for an south to southeast movement as the ridge decays.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 16:30 PM UTC..
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Quoting presslord:
Space ballsLink

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.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Earthquake Rattles NZ's Christchurch

(WELLINGTON, New Zealand) — A series of strong earthquakes struck the New Zealand city of Christchurch on Friday, rattling buildings, sending goods tumbling from shelves and prompting terrified holiday shoppers to flee into the streets. There was no tsunami alert issued and the city appeared to hpave been spared major damage.
I am surprised that city is still on the map. How many earthquakes can one place have in a year.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20569
Quoting Grothar:
Am I the only one still up?
Good morning Gro..It is 8:20 AM Central Time .Gettin close to Christmas...hope i get sumthin besides coal this year..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20569
Quoting Skyepony:
HIPPO reveals climate surprises
Swooping pole-to-pole plane flights uncover unexpected trends in pollutant releases and spread


Good article. Thank you for posting it. A few things from it...

1) If methane concentrations are increasing in the upper atmosphere at 20 degrees north and south of the equator then would that not make the climate more stable, especially in terms of tropical cyclone development. I guess it all depends where exactly that pollutent layer settles, which is constantly flucuating.

2) Sounds like the runaway train has already left the boarding station. They come out saying methane concentrations are increasing everywhere and at record rates. It's very alarming. The 20 year GWP of methane is 72, which means that if the same mass of methane and carbon dioxide were introduced into the atmosphere, that methane will trap 72 times more heat than the carbon dioxide over the next 20 years.

3) Then theres all that Carbon and Nitrous Oxides they talked about too, especially in the Arctic. It will be very interesting to see how the new models they format will show these changes in their data. Especially with the upper atmosphere methane concentrations that were not forcasted previously.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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