A white Christmas will be a U.S. rarity in 2011; November the globe's 12th warmest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:26 PM GMT on December 22, 2011

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A white Christmas will be a rarity across most of the U.S. this year, as December temperatures have been more typical of November, and very little snow has fallen. Large portions of the eastern half of the country have been more than 4°F above average so far in December, with temperatures averaging 8°F above average over portions of North Dakota.This is quite a switch from the previous two winters, which were both much colder and snowier than average. All three winters featured La Niña conditions in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, so that cannot explain the difference. A key reason for the December warmth this year and the cold and snowy Decembers of 2010 and 2009 is a weather pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average over the 30-day period ending on December 22, 2011. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.



Figure 2. Top: snow depth measured in the U.S. on December 22, 2011, after a month with a strong positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Bottom: Snow depth measured in the U.S. on December 22, 2010, after a month with a strong negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Image credit: NOAA/NOHRSC.

The Arctic Oscillation and its influence on winter weather
The Arctic Oscillation (AO), and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are climate patterns in the Northern Hemisphere defined by fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High, the AO and NAO control the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive AO/NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild winter in the U.S. and Western Europe. Positive AO/NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative AO/NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative AO/NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe and the U.S. East Coast, but leads to very warm conditions in the Arctic, since all the cold air spilling out of the Arctic gets replaced by warm air flowing poleward. The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extreme negative NAO and AO since record keeping began in 1865; a very extreme AO/NAO also developed during the winter of 2010 - 2011. But this year, the pattern has flipped. The AO has been almost as strong, but in the opposite sense--a positive AO, leading to very warm conditions over the U.S. Unfortunately, the AO is difficult to predict more than a week or two and advance, and we don't understand why the AO can vary so much from winter to winter. The latest predictions from the ECMWF and GFS models show this positive AO pattern continuing for at least the next ten days. Real winter conditions won't arrive in the U.S. until the first week of January, at the earliest. Between now and the end of 2011, the only major winter storm the GFS model expects in the U.S. will be in the Pacific Northwest, on December 30 - 31.

This week, NOAA's ClimateWatch Magazine posted an excellent tutorial on the Arctic Oscillation and how it is affecting our winter weather this year.



Figure 3. The departure of temperature from average in Centigrade during the November - December - January period during various phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Positive AO conditions lead to warm winters in the U.S., while negative AO conditions lead to cold winters. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

November 2011: Earth's 12th warmest on record
November 2011 was the globe's 12th warmest November on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). November 2011 global land temperatures were the 16th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere near average, the 20th or 11th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the November 2011 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 4. Departure of temperature from average for November 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

A warm November for the U.S.
In the contiguous U.S., November ranked as the 25th warmest November in the 117-year record. Thirteen states in the Northeast and Upper Midwest recorded a top-ten warmest November, and no states had a top-ten coldest November. Eight states had a top-ten wettest November--Indiana, Ohio, Missouri,Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. One state had a top-ten driest month, Minnesota. Texas had its 39th driest November on record, keeping 76% of Texas under extreme to exceptional drought as of December 13, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

A weak La Niña continues
A borderline weak/moderate La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 1.0°C below average during the first half of December. The impacts of a La Niña on U.S. weather are well-defined. It is likely that the drought in the South, especially Texas, will continue, along with above average temperatures. The Northwest can expect cooler than average temperatures, as well as the potential for another winter with a heavy snowpack across the western United States.

Arctic sea ice extent third lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its third lowest on record in November, behind 2006 and 2010, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Sea ice records date back to 1979.

Donations sought for the East Africa famine
Weather Underground has partnered with the International Rescue Committee (IRC) to help the Horn of Africa region during the ongoing famine. With the help of the Weather Underground community, we hope to raise $10,000 that will go toward helping the refugees survive the crisis. Weather Underground will match the community's donation dollar-for-dollar up to $10,000 for a total donation of $20,000. Please visit the East Africa famine donation page to help out. Ninety cents of every dollar donated goes directly to the people in need.

Posts looking back at the remarkable weather events of 2011
Deadliest weather disaster of 2011: the East African drought
Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?
Wettest year on record in Philadelphia; 2011 sets record for wet/dry extremes in U.S.
Hurricane Irene: New York City dodges a potential storm surge mega-disaster

This will be my last post until Tuesday. Have a great holiday, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Neapolitan:
Just finished making my 11th, 12th, and 13th Christmas 2011 pies (I did 24 at Thanksgiving, so this was a break). Two Bourbon pecan, two apple, caramel apple, strawberry rhubarb, two Malibu rum coconut cream, three boring old pumpkin, mixed berry, and a French chocolate silk. Oh, and a three-layer triple-chocolate Kahlua cake; I guess not everyone likes round desserts. Now I'm off to deliver--and partake of--those last three. Have a continued good Christmas day, everyone!


I'm impressed, you have a Merry Christmas too!
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Quoting Articuno:
I got a electric scooter..a fujifilm s3200 high end compact camera..madden 12 for the xbox 360..adobe photoshop elements..a rubix cube..skillet album (a cool band you should check out..) And more to come! :D a awesome christmas by far! merry christms everyone.
I just got a XBOX 360 with Kinect including Wipeout 2, Sonic Generations, Fable 3, & Halo Reach.heeeehehehe
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385. GeneW
Merry Christmas Dr. Masters and the rest.
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Just finished making my 11th, 12th, and 13th Christmas 2011 pies (I did 24 at Thanksgiving, so this was a break). Two Bourbon pecan, two apple, caramel apple, strawberry rhubarb, two Malibu rum coconut cream, three boring old pumpkin, mixed berry, and a French chocolate silk. Oh, and a three-layer triple-chocolate Kahlua cake; I guess not everyone likes round desserts. Now I'm off to deliver--and partake of--those last three. Have a continued good Christmas day, everyone!
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm the ham person here, and I'm saving that for New Year's....

Sounds like an excellent dinner....


My wife, made chocolate pie, fresh pumpkin pie, and fresh sweet potato pie!
deviled eggs
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I'm the ham person here, and I'm saving that for New Year's....

Sounds like an excellent dinner....
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Quoting BahaHurican:
trunk,

If it didn't go in the turkey, it doesn't taste as good as my mom's.... lol


Sounds mouthwatering, though....



My sister is having Spiral Ham, so this is from Thanksgiving!
We freeze the turkey, broth and fat!
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Quoting BahaHurican:
trunk,

If it didn't go in the turkey, it doesn't taste as good as my mom's.... lol


Sounds mouthwatering, though....



Nobody's food taste as good as their mom's,

And that's the facts!
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trunk,

If it didn't go in the turkey, it doesn't taste as good as my mom's.... lol


Sounds mouthwatering, though....

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Now I just made dressing.

Two boxes of Stove top stuffing.
turkey broth, 2 cups
Turkey fat. 3 tablespoons.
minced celery 1 cup
minced white onion.1.
Two cups minced dark meat turkey.
Mix, place into 9x12 pan, bake for 35 minutes.
At 350F. My family raves at my dressing.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Good grief, Grothar. I certainly hope no one else has this problem. I am sorry to hear that you, and all in Fort Laudedale, are having to go through this. What a mess!

You do know that you can use the Crown Royal to clean the dishes. A little for Grothar, a little on the dishes, a little for Grothar. Sooner or later, either the dishes will be cleaned or you will not care if they are.


I am the domestic help at our household, had to wash dishes at least 5 times since yesterday evening.
My guardian angel was with my wife last nite!
Our mixer went on the blink, at 19:30hrs, that's 7:30 PM, Had 5 pies to make and a cake, also ran out of sugar.
I came to the rescue, my daughter and I, drove 8 miles to the nearest Walmart, arrived with four minutes till their Christmas closing, ran into the store, I headed for the appliances, she ran for the sugar.
We were one of the last ones in line.
Came home were were hero's in my wife's eyes.

This morning,after opening the gifts, my son started puking in Walmart bag lined trash can, so looks like mom and my son are going to be staying home this afternoon, while I take all of those pies and cakes to my sister's house.
We're just an average family in America, I'm just lucky we have our health, freedoms, and can celebrate our religious freedoms!
Today, I saw on the news, were many Christians were killed at church in many countries throughout the world. God Bless America!
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Merry Christmas to all out there... I got a trip to S FL.... lol MORE than good enough, IMO....

Weather here is absolutely gorgeous... just hope it holds up for Junkanoo tonight... Ah.... Boxing Day with the Saxons and Valley Boys... lol

Later. Got some food-related matters to deal with....
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LSU Earth Scan Laboratory
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
I got a electric scooter..a fujifilm s3200 high end compact camera..madden 12 for the xbox 360..adobe photoshop elements..a rubix cube..skillet album (a cool band you should check out..) And more to come! :D a awesome christmas by far! merry christms everyone.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2359
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays everyone!

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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Merry Christmas and have a safe holiday to all! (Even you guys I argue with)

LOL!


You too, Doug. Have a good year.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25976


Merry Christmas to everyone!!!!
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Dr. Masters is quoted (first!) in an excellent article in the Environment section of today's New York Times.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Merry Christmas and have a safe holiday to all! (Even you guys I argue with)

LOL!


Only arguing here is really during hurricane season, but in truth after the season, we all get around our computer screens, break open a Fresca, kick our feet back and enjoy the memories.
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Merry Christmas/happy holidays! :)
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Merry Christmas and have a safe holiday to all! (Even you guys I argue with)

LOL!
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Merry Christmas to everyone be safe...
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Happy Christmas all!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23870
ok so Santa brought me 3 board games and a 'bop it' thingymadouey.....never been dissapointed until 2011:(

Twister is one of them, thats a fun game xD
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Indian Ocean

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Merry Christmas Everyone, it looks like a stormy morning in the South for some of us.

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361. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #25
TROPICAL CYCLONE GRANT (04U)
5:00 AM CST December 25 2011
===================================

At 3:30 AM CST, Tropical Cyclone Grant, Category Two (982 hPa) located at 11.0S 132.7E or 20 km north northeast of Croker Island and 255 km northeast of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
================
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center in southern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Grant has been upgraded to a Category 2 Cyclone and is slowly intensifying. Movement has been to the southeast over recent hours, but is expected to move south over the Cobourg Peninsula tonight and into the Van Diemen Gulf during Monday. Present indications have it crossing the coast again east of Point Stuart later on Monday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced over the Cobourg Peninsula including Croker Island, and are expected to extend into the western Van Diemen Gulf early on Monday and may extend inland to Oenpelli and Jabiru later on Monday.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected over areas west of Maningrida to Snake Bay including Cape Don, and may extend along the coast between Cape Fourcroy and Milingimbi, including the rest of the Tiwi Islands tonight and to Point Stuart early on Monday. GALES may also extend inland to Jabiru and Oenpelli on Monday.

Darwin may experience GALES on Monday on the edge of the tropical cyclone as it passes to the east.

GALES may extend further east to Nhulunbuy on Tuesday if the tropical cyclone takes a more easterly path.

Coastal residents between Cape Don and Goulburn Island are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause localised flooding and significant stream rises over the northern Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and northern Roper-McArthur Districts. The Territory Controller advises residents from west of Maningrida to Snake Bay, including Cape Don, Croker Island and Goulburn Island to TAKE SHELTER NOW.

Residents of remaining areas from Dundee Beach to Milingimbi, including inland to Jabiru and Oenpelli should now make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

For communities under Watch, now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

The Territory Controller advises residents of Darwin and Rural Areas that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.

REPEATING: Residents from west of Maningrida to Snake Bay, including Cape Don, Croker Island and Goulburn Island are advised to TAKE SHELTER NOW.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Dundee Beach to Milingimbi including the Tiwi Islands, Darwin and inland to Jabiru and Oenpelli.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Milingimbi to Nhulunbuy.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 12.2S 132.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 13.5S 134.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 13.5S 137.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
======================

Dvorak analysis based on CDO pattern gives a CF=3 and a BF=0.5 resulting in a DT of 3.5. MET=4.0 and PT=3.5, FT based on DT=PT=3.5. McCluer Island, about 15 nm SE from the center has been reporting sustained winds of 40-50 knots [ten minute mean] gusting 50-60 knots in recent observations. Strong winds are expected on northern side of the system due to interaction with the monsoon flow. As such the system has been upgraded to a Category 2 status. Latest satellite images indicate continued development.

Center is fixed by Darwin radar - though at the limit of effective range - and surface observations. System is relatively small in size at 60 nm.

Model guidance continues to reflect the slow movement in the short term due to system being balanced between the monsoon westerlies to the north and the mid-level ridge to the south. Other than that a consistent model trend is for slow short term motion in the 6 to 12 hour time frame, followed by a track to the south and then eventually east southeast over the Top End as the mid level ridge to the south weakens.

CIMMS upper level analyses suggests a weak TUTT feature on the western flank. Due to proximity to land, and to upper flow limitations, maximum forecast intensity has been capped at 60 knots 10 minute mean.

Longer term redevelopment in the Gulf of Carpentaria is a feature of a number of models.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 10:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45208
360. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST December 25 2011
===================================

The well marked low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal persists. The system would concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45208
Peace on Earth


Goodwill to all of the World

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Grothar....from what I'm reading there's 250,000 homes in the area that are under a boil water order. Big water main break. Drink only bottled water.....the dishes can wait.....it's a good excuse NOT to do them anyway. Hopefully it'll be fixed quickly.
.
.
I wonder what's going on in the hotels with all those tourists. It's inconvenient for those of us at home...but on vacation I don't really want to be paying to NOT be able to take a shower, or using bottled water to wash my hands.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Merry Christmas everyone!


What are you doing up this late, still waiting for Santa? He won't drop by your house if you are still up, Geoffrey.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25976
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Good grief, Grothar. I certainly hope no one else has this problem. I am sorry to hear that you, and all in Fort Laudedale, are having to go through this. What a mess!

You do know that you can use the Crown Royal to clean the dishes. A little for Grothar, a little on the dishes, a little for Grothar. Sooner or later, either the dishes will be cleaned or you will not care if they are.


LOL!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25976
Quoting Grothar:
We have no water here in Fort Lauderdale. It went out around 8:00 PM We had 22 guests for dinner. Dishes are piled up and we had to send our domestic home. All the restaurants and most stores are closing. It was a big main water break. They have no idea when it will be fixed. We have plenty of drinking water, but nothing with which to clean. It really is an annoying thing. Anyone else out there with this problem?


Good grief, Grothar. I certainly hope no one else has this problem. I am sorry to hear that you, and all in Fort Laudedale, are having to go through this. What a mess!

You do know that you can use the Crown Royal to clean the dishes. A little for Grothar, a little on the dishes, a little for Grothar. Sooner or later, either the dishes will be cleaned or you will not care if they are.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
Merry Christmas everyone!
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Quoting Neapolitan:

I bet. How many returns have you been witness to? Are you up to a dozen yet? ;-)


Don't get funny, only 5.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25976
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #24
TROPICAL CYCLONE GRANT (04U)
1:00 PM CST December 25 2011
===================================

At 12:30 PM CST, Tropical Cyclone Grant, Category One (984 hPa) located at 10.9S 132.8E or 35 km northeast of Croker Island and 270 km northeast of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center in southern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northern quadrant

Category 1 Tropical Cyclone Grant has moved southeast over recent hours, but is expected to move south over the Cobourg Peninsula tonight and into the Van Diemen Gulf during Monday. Present indications have it crossing the coast again east of Darwin later on Monday.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced over the Cobourg Peninsula, including Cape Don and Croker Island, and are expected to extend along the coast between Cape Fourcroy and Milingimbi, including the Tiwi Islands later today.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 km/h are expected to develop as the cyclone intensifies, affecting parts of the coast between Snake Bay and Croker Island tonight.

Darwin may experience GALES on Monday on the edge of the tropical cyclone as it passes to the east. GALES may also extend inland to Jabiru and Oenpelli on Monday.

GALES may extend further east to Nhulunbuy on Monday if the tropical cyclone takes a more easterly path.

Coastal residents between Cape Don and Goulburn Island are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause localised flooding and significant stream rises over the northern Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and northern Roper-McArthur Districts. The Territory Controller advises residents from west of Goulburn Island to Snake Bay, including Cape Don to TAKE SHELTER NOW.

Residents of remaining areas from Dundee Beach to Milingimbi should now make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

For communities under Watch, now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

The Territory Controller advises residents of Darwin and Rural Areas that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.

REPEATING: Residents from west of Goulburn Island to Snake Bay, including Cape Don, are advised to TAKE SHELTER NOW.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Dundee Beach to Milingimbi including the Tiwi Islands and Darwin

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Milingimbi to Nhulunbuy and inland to Jabiru and Oenpelli

Additional Information
======================

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25976
Quoting Grothar:


Thank, Nea, and nice shot of the comet. I always enjoy when Halley's Comet come by.

I bet. How many returns have you been witness to? Are you up to a dozen yet? ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
350. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #24
TROPICAL CYCLONE GRANT (04U)
1:00 PM CST December 25 2011
===================================

At 12:30 PM CST, Tropical Cyclone Grant, Category One (984 hPa) located at 10.9S 132.8E or 35 km northeast of Croker Island and 270 km northeast of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center in southern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northern quadrant

Category 1 Tropical Cyclone Grant has moved southeast over recent hours, but is expected to move south over the Cobourg Peninsula tonight and into the Van Diemen Gulf during Monday. Present indications have it crossing the coast again east of Darwin later on Monday.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced over the Cobourg Peninsula, including Cape Don and Croker Island, and are expected to extend along the coast between Cape Fourcroy and Milingimbi, including the Tiwi Islands later today.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 km/h are expected to develop as the cyclone intensifies, affecting parts of the coast between Snake Bay and Croker Island tonight.

Darwin may experience GALES on Monday on the edge of the tropical cyclone as it passes to the east. GALES may also extend inland to Jabiru and Oenpelli on Monday.

GALES may extend further east to Nhulunbuy on Monday if the tropical cyclone takes a more easterly path.

Coastal residents between Cape Don and Goulburn Island are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause localised flooding and significant stream rises over the northern Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and northern Roper-McArthur Districts. The Territory Controller advises residents from west of Goulburn Island to Snake Bay, including Cape Don to TAKE SHELTER NOW.

Residents of remaining areas from Dundee Beach to Milingimbi should now make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

For communities under Watch, now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

The Territory Controller advises residents of Darwin and Rural Areas that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.

REPEATING: Residents from west of Goulburn Island to Snake Bay, including Cape Don, are advised to TAKE SHELTER NOW.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Dundee Beach to Milingimbi including the Tiwi Islands and Darwin

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Milingimbi to Nhulunbuy and inland to Jabiru and Oenpelli

Additional Information
======================

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45208
Quoting Neapolitan:
Merry Christmas, WU-folks. I wanted to share this beautiful picture of Comet Lovejoy taken at the European Southern Observatory's Paranal Observatory in Chile on Dec. 22. Lovejoy is, unfortunately, not visible to us North Hemisphereans, but those south of the Equator have a good show for the next few weeks. (Here that, Aussie?)

Click for larger image:

Lovejoy

Sorry to hear that, Gro. Hope it gets fixed soon (of course, then you'll be under a boil water order for three or so days, but at least you will have water...


Thank, Nea, and nice shot of the comet. I always enjoy when Halley's Comet come by.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25976
Merry Christmas, WU-folks. I wanted to share this beautiful picture of Comet Lovejoy taken at the European Southern Observatory's Paranal Observatory in Chile on Dec. 22. Lovejoy is, unfortunately, not visible to us North Hemisphereans, but those south of the Equator have a good show for the next few weeks. (Here that, Aussie?)

Click for larger image:

Lovejoy
Quoting Grothar:
We have no water here in Fort Lauderdale. It went out around 8:00 PM We had 22 guests for dinner. Dishes are piled up and we had to send our domestic home. All the restaurants and most stores are closing. It was a big main water break. They have no idea when it will be fixed. We have plenty of drinking water, but nothing with which to clean. It really is an annoying thing. Anyone else out there with this problem?

Sorry to hear that, Gro. Hope it gets fixed soon (of course, then you'll be under a boil water order for three or so days, but at least you will have water...
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We have no water here in Fort Lauderdale. It went out around 8:00 PM We had 22 guests for dinner. Dishes are piled up and we had to send our domestic home. All the restaurants and most stores are closing. It was a big main water break. They have no idea when it will be fixed. We have plenty of drinking water, but nothing with which to clean. It really is an annoying thing. Anyone else out there with this problem?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25976
346. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
3:00 AM JST December 25 2011
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 5.0N 133.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45208
345. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #23
TROPICAL CYCLONE GRANT (04U)
10:00 AM CST December 25 2011
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At 9:30 AM CST, Tropical Cyclone Grant, Category One (993 hPa) located at 10.7S 132.4E or 55 km north northwest of Croker Island and 255 km northeast of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 1 knot.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center in southern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northern quadrant

Category 1 Tropical Cyclone Grant should remain slow moving over the next 6 to 12 hours before moving south, over the Cobourg Peninsula tonight and into the Van Diemen Gulf during Monday. Present indications have it crossing the coast again east of Darwin later on Monday.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced over the Cobourg Peninsula, including Cape Don and Croker Island, and are expected to extend along the coast between Cape Fourcroy and Milingimbi, including the Tiwi Islands during today.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop if the cyclone continues to intensify, affecting parts of the coast between Snake Bay and Croker Island tonight.

Darwin may experience GALES on Monday on the edge of the tropical cyclone as it passes to the east. GALES may also extend inland to Jabiru and Oenpelli on Monday.

GALES may extend further east to Nhulunbuy on Monday if the tropical cyclone takes a more easterly path.

Coastal residents between Cape Don and Goulburn Island are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause localised flooding and significant stream rises over the northern Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and northern Roper-McArthur Districts. The Territory Controller advises residents from west of Goulburn Island to Snake Bay, including Cape Don to TAKE SHELTER NOW.

Residents of remaining areas from Dundee Beach to Milingimbi should now make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

For communities under Watch, now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

The Territory Controller advises residents of Darwin and Rural Areas that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.

REPEATING: Residents from west of Goulburn Island to Snake Bay, including Cape Don, are advised to TAKE SHELTER NOW.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Dundee Beach to Milingimbi including the Tiwi Islands and Darwin

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Milingimbi to Nhulunbuy and inland to Jabiru and Oenpelli

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 11.3S 132.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 12.6S 132.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 13.0S 134.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Dvorak IR images have 0.5 wrap. McCluer Island, about 45 nm SE from the center, is reporting 37 knots [one minute mean] gusting 45 knots in recent observations. Stronger winds are expected on northern side of the system due to interaction with the monsoon flow. As such the system will remain a category one status.

Center is fixed by Darwin radar - though at the limit of effective range - and surface observations. System is relatively small in size at 40 nm, though gale radius has been expanded on the northern side to 60 nm.

Model guidance continues to reflect the slow movement in the short term due to system being balanced between the monsoon westerlies to the north and the mid-level ridge to the south. GFS continues to be discounted due to poor initial analyses. Other than that a consistent model trend is for slow short term motion in the 6 to 12 hour time frame, followed by a track to the south and then eventually east southeast over the Top End as the mid level ridge to the south weakens.

CIMMS upper level analyses suggests a weak TUTT feature on the western flank has been a limiting feature to development. Due to proximity to land, and to upper flow limitations, maximum forecast intensity has been capped at 55 knots 10 minute mean.

Longer term redevelopment in the Gulf of Carpentaria is a feature of a number of models.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 4:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45208
Quoting 12george1:

Florida should be warm, but not this warm. Also, don't tell us we are lucky that is it warm here, you would be complaining too. I am sure you complained about how hot it was this summer.
Nah not really.I love summer!!! :).Even though it was just to hot to go outside some days I still enjoyed the weather.Even though I don't live in Florida,I bet If I did I would love the weather down there.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I think it's funny how some of you Floridians are complaining about the heat XD.And you all LIVE IN FLORIDA!!!!.However I can complain about snow because it's possible in D.C.Florida is suppose to be warm.That's why some of my co-wokers go down there for the winter.

Florida should be warm, but not this warm. Also, don't tell us we are lucky that is it warm here, you would be complaining too. I am sure you complained about how hot it was this summer.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
lol, nothing like a bunch of idiot teenagers in high school that want to come and cause trouble on Christmas Eve.
Arnt you a teen if I'm not mistaken?
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A typical Christmas Eve  so far for the Griswalds. Little what's her name blew out yet another one of her golden tires she drives on. But she's safe in her bed sleeping off a cold. Thank goodness!  Last year it was a burned up engine. So all things considered. However the days not done yet. And the engine blower upper is still at work.  Lol. Woulda loved to have put a bow on the NFC E today. But what were the chances of that happening with the Cardiac Cowboys? Thanks for another stresser guys. I'm too old for this. ;-) Thanks for all the smiles WU FRIENDS. That's why I love this place. Because now when I look at the beautiful pictures of our lovely world and say, "Hey what hurricane is that?" I don't have to feel weird. Lol. Y'all get me.  And NRT Christmas In The Caribbean was so nice I had to watch it twice. =D


Merry Christmas everyone from wet and COLD SE TX.


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Quoting SPLbeater:
Santa currently in Portalegre,Portugal


I hear NASA wanted on its Christmas wishlist a manned space program back..

maybe Santa will drop a new external tank into Louisiana.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23870
man...i came upstairs just in time. neighbors just arrived and are singing carols at the front door(they cant sing that good) Thank God for earbuds LOL

P.S. Santa in Cork, Ireland NOW
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
lol, nothing like a bunch of idiot teenagers in high school that want to come and cause trouble on Christmas Eve.


Hey! I'm a teenager and I can be described as an idiot sometimes but that doesn't mean that I'm going to cause trouble on Christmas Eve...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
lol, nothing like a bunch of idiot teenagers in high school that want to come and cause trouble on Christmas Eve.


I'll get the lighters and spray paint! =D
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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