A white Christmas will be a U.S. rarity in 2011; November the globe's 12th warmest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:26 PM GMT on December 22, 2011

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A white Christmas will be a rarity across most of the U.S. this year, as December temperatures have been more typical of November, and very little snow has fallen. Large portions of the eastern half of the country have been more than 4°F above average so far in December, with temperatures averaging 8°F above average over portions of North Dakota.This is quite a switch from the previous two winters, which were both much colder and snowier than average. All three winters featured La Niña conditions in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, so that cannot explain the difference. A key reason for the December warmth this year and the cold and snowy Decembers of 2010 and 2009 is a weather pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average over the 30-day period ending on December 22, 2011. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.



Figure 2. Top: snow depth measured in the U.S. on December 22, 2011, after a month with a strong positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Bottom: Snow depth measured in the U.S. on December 22, 2010, after a month with a strong negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Image credit: NOAA/NOHRSC.

The Arctic Oscillation and its influence on winter weather
The Arctic Oscillation (AO), and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are climate patterns in the Northern Hemisphere defined by fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High, the AO and NAO control the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive AO/NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild winter in the U.S. and Western Europe. Positive AO/NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative AO/NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative AO/NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe and the U.S. East Coast, but leads to very warm conditions in the Arctic, since all the cold air spilling out of the Arctic gets replaced by warm air flowing poleward. The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extreme negative NAO and AO since record keeping began in 1865; a very extreme AO/NAO also developed during the winter of 2010 - 2011. But this year, the pattern has flipped. The AO has been almost as strong, but in the opposite sense--a positive AO, leading to very warm conditions over the U.S. Unfortunately, the AO is difficult to predict more than a week or two and advance, and we don't understand why the AO can vary so much from winter to winter. The latest predictions from the ECMWF and GFS models show this positive AO pattern continuing for at least the next ten days. Real winter conditions won't arrive in the U.S. until the first week of January, at the earliest. Between now and the end of 2011, the only major winter storm the GFS model expects in the U.S. will be in the Pacific Northwest, on December 30 - 31.

This week, NOAA's ClimateWatch Magazine posted an excellent tutorial on the Arctic Oscillation and how it is affecting our winter weather this year.



Figure 3. The departure of temperature from average in Centigrade during the November - December - January period during various phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Positive AO conditions lead to warm winters in the U.S., while negative AO conditions lead to cold winters. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

November 2011: Earth's 12th warmest on record
November 2011 was the globe's 12th warmest November on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). November 2011 global land temperatures were the 16th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere near average, the 20th or 11th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the November 2011 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 4. Departure of temperature from average for November 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

A warm November for the U.S.
In the contiguous U.S., November ranked as the 25th warmest November in the 117-year record. Thirteen states in the Northeast and Upper Midwest recorded a top-ten warmest November, and no states had a top-ten coldest November. Eight states had a top-ten wettest November--Indiana, Ohio, Missouri,Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. One state had a top-ten driest month, Minnesota. Texas had its 39th driest November on record, keeping 76% of Texas under extreme to exceptional drought as of December 13, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

A weak La Niña continues
A borderline weak/moderate La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 1.0°C below average during the first half of December. The impacts of a La Niña on U.S. weather are well-defined. It is likely that the drought in the South, especially Texas, will continue, along with above average temperatures. The Northwest can expect cooler than average temperatures, as well as the potential for another winter with a heavy snowpack across the western United States.

Arctic sea ice extent third lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its third lowest on record in November, behind 2006 and 2010, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Sea ice records date back to 1979.

Donations sought for the East Africa famine
Weather Underground has partnered with the International Rescue Committee (IRC) to help the Horn of Africa region during the ongoing famine. With the help of the Weather Underground community, we hope to raise $10,000 that will go toward helping the refugees survive the crisis. Weather Underground will match the community's donation dollar-for-dollar up to $10,000 for a total donation of $20,000. Please visit the East Africa famine donation page to help out. Ninety cents of every dollar donated goes directly to the people in need.

Posts looking back at the remarkable weather events of 2011
Deadliest weather disaster of 2011: the East African drought
Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?
Wettest year on record in Philadelphia; 2011 sets record for wet/dry extremes in U.S.
Hurricane Irene: New York City dodges a potential storm surge mega-disaster

This will be my last post until Tuesday. Have a great holiday, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting AstroHurricane001:



Yippie-kai-yay!


Does this mean I can't post AccuWeather pics?
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How Right-Wing Conspiracy Theories May Pose a Genuine Threat to Humanity
Tea Partiers, freaking out about "Agenda 21" and convinced global warming isn't real, are gumming up the works for those trying to save the planet.


December 25, 2011 |



The paranoia infecting a broad swath of the American right-wing can be comical at times -- think about Orly Taitz and her fellow Birthers. But we laugh at our own peril, because what Richard Hofstadter famously characterized as "the paranoid style in American politics" poses a serious threat to our future: the right's snowballing conspiracy theories could ultimately lead to disaster.

Consider what's happening in Virginia's Middle Peninsula on the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay, among the areas in the U.S. most vulnerable to climate change. Earlier this month, Darryl Fears, reporting for the Washington Post, offered a glimpse into the madness that city planners have faced in recent months as a local Tea Party group, convinced that a nefarious plot by scientists and city officials is afoot, have disrupted their work trying to mitigate the potential impacts of rising sea levels.

"The uprising," wrote Fears, "began at a February meeting about starting a business park for farming oysters in Mathews County." He continued:

The program to help restore the Chesapeake Bay oyster population was slated for land owned by the county, but it was shouted down as a useless federal program that would expand the national debt. The proposal was tabled.

As the opposition grew over the summer, confrontations became so heated that some planners posted uniformed police officers at meetings and others hired consultants to help calm audiences and manage the indoor environment, several planners said.

In James City County, speakers were shouted away from a podium. In Page County, angry farmers forced commissioners to stop a meeting. In Gloucester County, planners sat stone-faced as activists took turns reading portions of the 500-page Agenda 21 text, delaying a meeting for more than an hour.

"Agenda 21" is one of a number of silly but dangerous conspiracy theories sweeping through the fever swamps of the right. Although admittedly sinister-sounding, Agenda 21 is just a blueprint for sustainable development, especially in emerging economies. It outlines how wealthier countries can contribute to smarter growth through technology transfers and public education. It stresses the importance of fighting deforestation and conserving bio-diversity -- all things that normal people would consider wise.

The important thing to understand about Agenda 21 is that there is absolutely nothing binding or compelling member countries to implement any part of it. It's not a treaty -- it is entirely voluntary and certainly doesn't have any connection to local governments. Yet for the right, with its long John Birch Society undercurrent of paranoia about international institutions, Agenda 21 represents some kind of dark UN conspiracy to impose socialism on the "free world."

That craziness lies at the heart of Michele Bachmann's quixotic war on energy-efficient lightbulbs. Tim Murphy reported, "The Minnesota congresswoman is part of a movement that considers 'sustainability' an existential threat to the United States, one with far-reaching consequences for education, transportation, and family values."

Last year, during the Denver mayoral race, Tea Party candidate Dan Maes argued that a local bike-sharing program, a popular initiative among city residents, was a "very well-disguised" part of a plan by then-Denver mayor (and now Colorado governor) John Hickenlooper for "converting Denver into a United Nations community." Alex Jones constantly hawks the conspiracy. Glenn Beck warned it would lead to "centralized control over all of human life on planet Earth." And in September, Newt Gingrich, hoping to burnish his wingnutty creds, told a group of Orlando Tea Partiers that, if elected, his first order of business would be "to cease all federal funding of any kind of activity that relates to United Nations Agenda 21." (Currently, no federal funding of any kind is used for implementing Agenda 21.)

t's causing uprisings like that seen in Virginia at ordinarily dull city planning board meetings across the country. As Stephanie Mencimer reported for Mother Jones, "Agenda 21 paranoia has swept the Tea Party scene, driving activists around the country to delve into the minutiae of local governance... they're descending on planning meetings and transit debates, wielding PowerPoints about Agenda 21, and generally freaking out low-level bureaucrats with accusations about their roles in a supposed international conspiracy."

Agenda 21 is inextricably linked to the most dangerous conspiracy theory going: that 97 percent of the world's climate scientists are lying when they say human activities are contributing to global climate change. This, too, is supposedly in service of the goal of destroying capitalism, which means one has to believe that climatologists around the world are not only all very political -- enough to conspire to deceive the entire world -- but they also all share the same largely discredited ideology.

Back in Virginia, the Coastal Zone Management program is struggling to "help prepare for the predicted effects of climate change, especially sea-level rise on Virginia's coastal resources." The area is uniquely imperiled; in June, Darryl Fears, a science correspondent, reported that Hampton Roads is especially vulnerable because several rivers run through it on their way to the Chesapeake Bay. He continued:

Unfortunately, this crowded, low-lying area also has long-term geological issues to deal with. Thirty-five million years ago, a meteor landed relatively close by and created the Chesapeake Bay Impact Crater. Hampton Roads is also home to a downward-pressing glacial formation created during the Ice Age. Scientists theorize that these ancient occurrences are causing the land to sink -- and together account for about one-third of the sea-level change.

Fears notes that "the water has risen so much that Naval Station Norfolk is replacing 14 piers at $60 million each to keep ship-repair facilities high and dry," but "this geology is lost in local meetings, where distrust of the local and federal governments is at center stage."

And their harassment is having the desired effect of "freaking out low-level bureaucrats" trying to prepare the area for the changes to come, preparations that have absolutely nothing to do with the United Nations, Agenda 21 or "socialism." According to Fears, Shereen Hughes, a former planning commissioner, is "worried that some officials are giving ground to fearmongers. The uprising against smart growth 'is ridiculous' and 'a conspiracy theory,' she said. But it's effective."

Planners aren't saying this is wrong, Hughes said, because "most are afraid they won't have a job if they're too vocal about this issue." Tea Party members have political allies who "might stand up" against planners who complain, Hughes said.

In his excellent book, Collapse, scientist Jared Diamond looked at a number of societies that had seen their physical climates change. He tried to determine what made some cultures die out while others persevered. According to Diamond, it wasn't the severity of the change, or its speed that was the determining factor. One important variable was the foresight of those societies' leaders -- their ability to properly diagnose the problem and adapt, to come up with proactive solutions to the problems they faced.

Diamond, in an interview with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, said, "one always has to ask about people's cultural response. Why is it that people failed to perceive the problems developing around them, or if they perceived them, why did they fail to solve the problems that would eventually do them in? Why did some peoples perceive and recognize their problems and others not?" Diamond explained:

A theme that emerges...is insulation of the decision-making elite from the consequences of their actions. That is to say, in societies where the elites do not suffer from the consequences of their decisions, but can insulate themselves, the elite are more likely to pursue their short-term interests, even though that may be bad for the long-term interests of the society, including the children of the elite themselves.

Today, oil and gas corporations are still funding a bunch of crank climate change deniers in order to avoid regulations that might slow their "short-term interests" in extracting as much wealth as they can from traditional hydrocarbons. And here we have Tea Partiers -- a "movement" nurtured by business-friendly Republican operatives and backed by the Koch brothers' dirty energy money -- being whipped into a frenzy by the likes of Glenn Beck and shouting down local planners trying to do something about rising water levels. They're freaking out about energy-efficient lightbulbs and bike-sharing programs, the very sorts of things we need in order to stave off disaster.

So the next time you hear a wingnut spewing feverish nonsense about "climategate" or the "globalist agenda," remember that this is not just fodder for late-night TV monologues, but the kind of stuff that has in the past brought societies faced with changing environments to their ultimate end.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9738



Yippie-kai-yay!
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Quoting owenowen:
More global warming crap. The "hits" keep on coming...




if you dont like it go some where else and post
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>
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Good night all. i roll around here maybe 1300Z tomorrow, er...today xD
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Merry Christmas to all!


One day there will be peace on Earth!
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also...this day last year, i woke up to 8 inches of snow in my yard. this year its near what 55? 60? good greif, how the NAO can change things!
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wonder who is going to be the first person to leave a comment in the new year, lol
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425. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 90E-125E SOUTH OF 10S
2:00 PM WST December 26 2011
=========================

At midday WST a tropical low was located near 11S 91E and may linger near the western boundary of the Western region before moving west of the region on Thursday. The low is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the Western region.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================

Tuesday: Moderate
Wednesday: Low
Thursday: Low
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
424. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #32
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER GRANT (04U)
2:00 PM CST December 26 2011
===================================

At 12:30 PM CST, Tropical Low, Former Grant (995 hPa) located at 12.5S 132.6E or 55 km west southwest of Oenpelli and 185 km east of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant has weakened below cyclone strength, with winds near the center below GALE force.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Don and Goulburn Island today. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause localised flooding and significant stream rises over the northern Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and Roper-McArthur Districts.

The Territory Controller advises residents in communities currently in shelter to remain until advised by local authorities that the all clear has been given.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================

The Cyclone WARNING for coastal areas from Cape Hotham to Goulburn Island, and inland to Oenpelli and Jabiru, has been cancelled.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
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423. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
SUBJECT: Deep Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal

Pre-cyclone watch

At 0:00 AM UTC, The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and intensified into deep depression. Deep Depression BOB05-2011 lays centered over southeast Bay of Bengal near 9.5N 87.5E, about 900 km southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 700 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 600 km southwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island).

The system is likely to move northwestwards, intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs. It is likely to move northwestward initially, then west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by early Thursday morning.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

6 HRS: 10.0N 87.0E - 30 knot (Deep Depression)
12 HRS: 10.5N 86.5E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.0N 84.5E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 13.0N 82.0E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
not about christmas..but yeah

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A friend shared this today.



Merry Christmas, y'all!
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feliz navidad! hope alll is well today wet and cold day, i love it
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Quoting Tazmanian:
this winter have been vary vary warm for this about evere one

definitely not for me, the highest it got so far this week was 50's.. right now its below freezing.
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this winter have been vary vary warm for this about evere one
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114791
417. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #31
TROPICAL CYCLONE GRANT (04U)
11:00 AM CST December 26 2011
===================================

At 9:30 AM CST, Tropical Cyclone Grant, Category One (990 hPa) located at 12.4S 132.6E or 50 km west southwest of Oenpelli and 185 km east of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
45 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Grant is weakening over land east of Point Stuart. The Tropical Cyclone is expected to continue moving inland in a southerly direction during Monday, and weaken below cyclone intensity later today.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced between Point Stuart and Oenpelli. GALES may affect other areas between Cape Hotham and the mainland coast south of Goulburn Island, including inland to Jabiru, in the next few hours.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Don and Goulburn Island today. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause localised flooding and significant stream rises over the northern Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and Roper-McArthur Districts.

The Territory Controller advises residents from Cape Hotham to the mainland coast south of Goulburn Island, including Oenpelli and Jabiru, to TAKE SHELTER NOW.

REPEATING: Residents from Cape Hotham to the mainland coast south of Goulburn Island, including Oenpelli and Jabiru are advised to TAKE SHELTER NOW.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Cape Hotham to Goulburn Island, and inland to Oenpelli and Jabiru.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 13.7S 133.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 13.7S 136.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 13.5S 140.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
======================

Convection has decreased significantly in the the last 6 hrs, as system is over land and weakening. LLCC difficult to locate on IR/VIS satellite imagery. Dvorak analyses difficult as Data T could not be determined from cloud features. Final T is based on MET=2.5 adjusted by PAT to 3.0. CI is held at 3.0 due to weakening.

Center location has become harder to identify as the system weakens over land, with current position based on surface observations.

Model guidance indicate a southward movement in the next 12 hours as the monsoon westerlies to the north begin to dominate the mid-level steering of the system. An easterly track over the Top End and then into the Gulf of Carpentaria is expected later as the mid level ridge to the south weakens.

TC Grant is expected to weaken over land in the next 3 to 6 hours.

Longer term redevelopment in the Gulf of Carpentaria is a feature of a number of models.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 4:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Quoting BahaHurican:
My mom's yellow rosebush gave Christmas gold...


its a beauty, congrats
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iz slow tonight..
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My mom's yellow rosebush gave Christmas gold...


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413. Skyepony (Mod)
High waves ravage S. Thailand, thousand affected, tourists marooned
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37489
J. and I would like to take this time to wish all of you a very merry Christmas, wonderful holidays, and a New Year full of love, happiness and...... NO HURRICANES!!

I suppose you could call me one of your "lurkers"; one of the members that just kind of sits on the sidelines worrying and watching what you guys have to say about the next system coming our way.

I'm not a weather expert but I just want to say thank you to each and every one of you who give us the info we look for to get us through what comes our way here in the Virgin Islands.

*hugs to all of you*

Thanks again!

-L

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411. Skyepony (Mod)
Swirl in the Central Atlantic earlier today..
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410. Skyepony (Mod)
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409. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #30
TROPICAL CYCLONE GRANT (04U)
7:00 AM CST December 26 2011
===================================

At 6:30 AM CST, Tropical Cyclone Grant, Category One (987 hPa) located at 12.3S 132.3E or 80 km west of Oenpelli and 155 km east of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
================
15 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
45 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Grant has recently crossed the coast east of Point Stuart. Tropical Cyclone Grant is expected to continue moving in a southerly direction inland throughout Monday and continue weakening.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced between Point Stuart and Oenpelli. GALES may affect other areas between Cape Hotham and the mainland coast south of Goulburn Island, including inland to Jabiru, in the next few hours.

Coastal residents near the eastern Van Diemen Gulf are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE this morning as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Don and Goulburn Island today. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause localised flooding and significant stream rises over the northern Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and northern Roper-McArthur Districts.

The Territory Controller advises residents from Cape Hotham to Goulburn Island, including Oenpelli and Jabiru, to TAKE SHELTER NOW.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Cape Hotham to Goulburn Island, and inland to Oenpelli and Jabiru.

The Cyclone WARNING from Goulburn Island to Maningrida has been cancelled.

The Cyclone WARNING from Melville Island east of Snake Bay, to Croker Island, including Cape Don, has been cancelled.

The Cyclone WATCH from Milingimbi to Nhulunbuy has been cancelled.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
"November 2011 was the globe's 12th warmest November on record"

The 12 warmest? Implies lack of global warming.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Wild Christmas weather: freak hailstorm wreaks havoc in Victoria
Posted on December 25, 2011

December 25, 2011 %u2013 AUSTRALIA %u2013 Storms pelted Victorians with hailstones as big as billiard balls during a wild Christmas Day barrage. The damage bill could run into tens of millions of dollars after hundreds of cars were bombarded, windows in homes and businesses were smashed and roofing was torn away. The State Emergency Service was called to more than 2500 jobs when a series of storm cells intensified dramatically in Melbourne in the afternoon. The worst was a tornado that hit Fiskville, near Bacchus Marsh, west of Melbourne.

Link


God is really -off about the carbon tax (And Merry Christmas! May the coming year be your best)
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Just finished making my 11th, 12th, and 13th Christmas 2011 pies (I did 24 at Thanksgiving, so this was a break). Two Bourbon pecan, two apple, caramel apple, strawberry rhubarb, two Malibu rum coconut cream, three boring old pumpkin, mixed berry, and a French chocolate silk. Oh, and a three-layer triple-chocolate Kahlua cake; I guess not everyone likes round desserts. Now I'm off to deliver--and partake of--those last three. Have a continued good Christmas day, everyone!


You're a baker? Now I have to go back and totally re-evalute (I vote for the Malibu rum coconut cream pie and maybe six or seven of the others).
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405. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #29
TROPICAL CYCLONE GRANT (04U)
5:00 AM CST December 26 2011
===================================

At 3:30 AM CST, Tropical Cyclone Grant, Category Two (984 hPa) located at 12.1S 132.4E or 75 km west northwest of Oenpelli and 170 km east northeast of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
================
15 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
45 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Grant is located over the southeastern Van Diemen Gulf. The system is weakening and is expected to cross the coast east of Point Stuart later this morning. Tropical Cyclone Grant is expected to continue moving in a southerly direction inland throughout Monday and continue weakening.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced over the southeastern Van Diemen Gulf and adjacent coast.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced between Point Stuart and Goulburn Island and may extend inland to Oenpelli and Jabiru this morning.

GALES may develop over Melville Island east of Snake Bay and between Cape Hotham and Point Stuart this morning if the system takes a more westerly track. If the system take a more easterly track than expected, GALES may develop between Goulburn Island and Maningrida later today.

GALES are no longer expected in the Darwin and Rural area.

Coastal residents near the eastern Van Diemen Gulf are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE this morning as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Don and Goulburn Island today. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause localised flooding and significant stream rises over the northern Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and northern Roper-McArthur Districts. The Territory Controller advises residents west of Maningrida to Snake Bay, including Cape Don, Croker Island and Goulburn Island to TAKE SHELTER NOW.

Residents from Cape Hotham to Maningrida, including Oenpelli and Jabiru are advised that PUBLIC SHELTERS ARE NOW OPEN.

REPEATING: Residents west of Maningrida to Snake Bay, including Cape Don, Croker Island and Goulburn Island are advised to TAKE SHELTER NOW.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Hotham to Maningrida, including Oenpelli, Jabiru and Melville Island east of Snake Bay.

The Cyclone WARNING from Dundee Beach to Cape Hotham, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands west of Snake Bay has been cancelled.

The Cyclone WARNING from Maningrida to Milingimbi has been cancelled.

The Cyclone WATCH from Milingimbi to Nhulunbuy has been cancelled.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 13.7S 133.3E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 13.9S 135.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 13.6S 139.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
======================

The system appears to be weakening with decreased convection near the system center. Data T could not be determined from cloud features. Final T is based on MET=3.5 adjusted by PAT to 3.0. CI is held at 3.5 due to initial weakening.

Center is fixed by Berrimah [Darwin] radar and is considered good. System is relatively small in size at 60 nm.

McCluer Island, about 60 nm NNE of the center has recently dropped below gales. Gale radius is reduced in the south due to land interaction.

Model guidance indicate a southward movement in the next 12-18 hours as the monsoon westerlies to the north begin to dominate the mid-level steering of the system. An easterly track over the Top End and then into the Gulf of Carpentaria is expected later as the mid level ridge to the south weakens.

TC Grant is expected to weaken over land in the next 6 to 12 hours.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 22:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
404. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION BOB05-2011
23:30 PM IST December 25 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over Southeast Bay Of Bengal.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Depression BOB05-2011 over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centered over southeast Bay of Bengal near 9.0N 88.0E, or about 950 km southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 750 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka), 600 km southwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar islands).

The system is likely to move northwestwards, intensify into a deep depression and subsequently into a cyclonic storm during next 48 hrs. It may then move towards north Tamil Nadu coast.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Wild Christmas weather: freak hailstorm wreaks havoc in Victoria
Posted on December 25, 2011

December 25, 2011 – AUSTRALIA – Storms pelted Victorians with hailstones as big as billiard balls during a wild Christmas Day barrage. The damage bill could run into tens of millions of dollars after hundreds of cars were bombarded, windows in homes and businesses were smashed and roofing was torn away. The State Emergency Service was called to more than 2500 jobs when a series of storm cells intensified dramatically in Melbourne in the afternoon. The worst was a tornado that hit Fiskville, near Bacchus Marsh, west of Melbourne.

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9738
Where are the Caribbean blobs these days...whimper ...whine....
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20569




Christmas Day in Nassau, Bahamas
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Merry Christmas, everyone.
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Uploaded by ReelNASA on Dec 22, 2011


International Space Station Commander Dan Burbank captured spectacular imagery of Comet Lovejoy as seen from about 240 miles above the Earth's horizon on Wednesday, Dec. 21.

Today Burbank described seeing the comet two nights ago as "the most amazing thing I have ever seen in space," in an interview with WDIV-TV in Detroit. Last night he captured hundreds of still images of the comet.

More images available in the International Space Station image gallery:

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/multime dia/gallery/index.html

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
I'm uploading my pics of today, while eating dinner, so if I seem to disappear... well it was tasty.... lol

BBL
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I got a Bear Grylls knife....bliss
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm... now wouldn't it be interesting if it turns out the Christmas star was some kind of re-entry sequence for a civilization on the south side of the planet that people in the middle east didn't know about....


LOL

Just had a great idea for a sci-fi story....

Thanks, Barb. I wish I remembered how to say "Merry Christmas!" in German....

Edit: Forgot the power of Google... lol

Froche Weihnachten! en Deutsche...



You've nearly nailed it, Baha, thank you!
Frohe Weihnachten! And all the best for the time to come.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Just want to wish everyone here a Merry and Safe Christmas. Also all the best for the New Year. Stay safe!
Merry Christmas to you, petrol... hope your day is as great as mine is...
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Hmmm... now wouldn't it be interesting if it turns out the Christmas star was some kind of re-entry sequence for a civilization on the south side of the planet that people in the middle east didn't know about....


LOL

Just had a great idea for a sci-fi story....

Thanks, Barb. I wish I remembered how to say "Merry Christmas!" in German....

Edit: Forgot the power of Google... lol

Froche Weihnachten! en Deutsche...

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Just want to wish everyone here a Merry and Safe Christmas. Also all the best for the New Year. Stay safe!
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Merry Christmas to all of you from Germany!

Yesterday at Christmas Eve we witnessed a very special Christmas star. When night fell in at 17:30 (5:30 pm), I've been with my family on the highway approaching Frankfurt and it's big airport from the East. Lots of airplanes were in the air. Suddenly in front of us a fireball with a long bright tail gained our attention. Behind us the thing exploded in the sky like a firework (I couldn't see this part of the event but my nice, placed on the back seats of our car, did). We were concerned that we just witnessed a serious mischief happening to an aircraft. Later on we learned that the phenomena could be seen in other parts of Germany as well, and now the mystery seems to be solved ...

Mysterious fireball was re-entry of Soyuz rocket

Some videos of the great Christmas show:

Frankfurt Christmas Market


Another one


Another one with Christmas music in the background

Another one further north

German report of "Spiegel" with video

Enjoy! I'm glad that no injuries and damage were connected with this anthropogenic "comet".

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Quoting HarlingenHolland:
Indian Ocean



Link
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4910
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4910
Merry Christmas evere one and google chorme am looking forword too what you give us in 2012
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114791
Merry Christmas, everyone.

As far as I'm concerned, any Christmas is merry so long as it doesn't involve Walmart.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Just finished making my 11th, 12th, and 13th Christmas 2011 pies (I did 24 at Thanksgiving, so this was a break). Two Bourbon pecan, two apple, caramel apple, strawberry rhubarb, two Malibu rum coconut cream, three boring old pumpkin, mixed berry, and a French chocolate silk. Oh, and a three-layer triple-chocolate Kahlua cake; I guess not everyone likes round desserts. Now I'm off to deliver--and partake of--those last three. Have a continued good Christmas day, everyone!


I'm impressed, you have a Merry Christmas too!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.