A white Christmas will be a U.S. rarity in 2011; November the globe's 12th warmest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:26 PM GMT on December 22, 2011

Share this Blog
38
+

A white Christmas will be a rarity across most of the U.S. this year, as December temperatures have been more typical of November, and very little snow has fallen. Large portions of the eastern half of the country have been more than 4°F above average so far in December, with temperatures averaging 8°F above average over portions of North Dakota.This is quite a switch from the previous two winters, which were both much colder and snowier than average. All three winters featured La Niña conditions in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, so that cannot explain the difference. A key reason for the December warmth this year and the cold and snowy Decembers of 2010 and 2009 is a weather pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average over the 30-day period ending on December 22, 2011. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.



Figure 2. Top: snow depth measured in the U.S. on December 22, 2011, after a month with a strong positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Bottom: Snow depth measured in the U.S. on December 22, 2010, after a month with a strong negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Image credit: NOAA/NOHRSC.

The Arctic Oscillation and its influence on winter weather
The Arctic Oscillation (AO), and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are climate patterns in the Northern Hemisphere defined by fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High, the AO and NAO control the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive AO/NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild winter in the U.S. and Western Europe. Positive AO/NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative AO/NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative AO/NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe and the U.S. East Coast, but leads to very warm conditions in the Arctic, since all the cold air spilling out of the Arctic gets replaced by warm air flowing poleward. The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extreme negative NAO and AO since record keeping began in 1865; a very extreme AO/NAO also developed during the winter of 2010 - 2011. But this year, the pattern has flipped. The AO has been almost as strong, but in the opposite sense--a positive AO, leading to very warm conditions over the U.S. Unfortunately, the AO is difficult to predict more than a week or two and advance, and we don't understand why the AO can vary so much from winter to winter. The latest predictions from the ECMWF and GFS models show this positive AO pattern continuing for at least the next ten days. Real winter conditions won't arrive in the U.S. until the first week of January, at the earliest. Between now and the end of 2011, the only major winter storm the GFS model expects in the U.S. will be in the Pacific Northwest, on December 30 - 31.

This week, NOAA's ClimateWatch Magazine posted an excellent tutorial on the Arctic Oscillation and how it is affecting our winter weather this year.



Figure 3. The departure of temperature from average in Centigrade during the November - December - January period during various phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Positive AO conditions lead to warm winters in the U.S., while negative AO conditions lead to cold winters. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

November 2011: Earth's 12th warmest on record
November 2011 was the globe's 12th warmest November on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). November 2011 global land temperatures were the 16th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere near average, the 20th or 11th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the November 2011 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 4. Departure of temperature from average for November 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

A warm November for the U.S.
In the contiguous U.S., November ranked as the 25th warmest November in the 117-year record. Thirteen states in the Northeast and Upper Midwest recorded a top-ten warmest November, and no states had a top-ten coldest November. Eight states had a top-ten wettest November--Indiana, Ohio, Missouri,Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. One state had a top-ten driest month, Minnesota. Texas had its 39th driest November on record, keeping 76% of Texas under extreme to exceptional drought as of December 13, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

A weak La Niña continues
A borderline weak/moderate La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 1.0°C below average during the first half of December. The impacts of a La Niña on U.S. weather are well-defined. It is likely that the drought in the South, especially Texas, will continue, along with above average temperatures. The Northwest can expect cooler than average temperatures, as well as the potential for another winter with a heavy snowpack across the western United States.

Arctic sea ice extent third lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its third lowest on record in November, behind 2006 and 2010, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Sea ice records date back to 1979.

Donations sought for the East Africa famine
Weather Underground has partnered with the International Rescue Committee (IRC) to help the Horn of Africa region during the ongoing famine. With the help of the Weather Underground community, we hope to raise $10,000 that will go toward helping the refugees survive the crisis. Weather Underground will match the community's donation dollar-for-dollar up to $10,000 for a total donation of $20,000. Please visit the East Africa famine donation page to help out. Ninety cents of every dollar donated goes directly to the people in need.

Posts looking back at the remarkable weather events of 2011
Deadliest weather disaster of 2011: the East African drought
Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?
Wettest year on record in Philadelphia; 2011 sets record for wet/dry extremes in U.S.
Hurricane Irene: New York City dodges a potential storm surge mega-disaster

This will be my last post until Tuesday. Have a great holiday, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 487 - 437

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

487. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
2:30 AM IST December 27 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southeast Bay of Bengal

Cyclone Alert For north Tamil Nadu And south Andhra Pradesh Coast

At 21:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Thane over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered near 11.0N 87.5E, or about 800 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 700 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 550 km west-southwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island).

The system is likely to move northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs. Then it is likely to move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by Friday morning.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44721
Quoting Skyepony:
Tampahurricane~ I'm thinking rain, maybe some thunderstorms. I-4 corridor & north should see more rain & such than south.

Expecting worse for the deep south & models hint at deep bombing over the New England.


Jed~ Got a little rain here today:)


Nice! After a very wet year overall(we cracked the 70.00 inch mark for year total last month) it hasn't rained in a while and it feels like an eternity without rain after having so much so often for several months.

Hopefully a lot of us will get a good amount tomorrow!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
485. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
At 9:30 am CST, a Tropical Low, Former Cyclone Grant (999 hPa) was located over the Top End near 13.5S 132.9E east southeast of Darwin. the low is reported as moving slowly south southeast.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44721
Quoting tampahurricane:
What kinda sever weather should we expect here in central Florida tomorrow? Thanks in advance :)


I'm expecting a rather low severe weather threat tomorrow, the reason is that all model sounding show the core of the higher dynamics and stronger low level jet lifting into more stable air across Alabama and Georgia tomorrow.

Instability and lift will be strong enough that there will be a slight change of an isolated severe cell. However, the chance is pretty low. There is a nice chance of a good solid line of storms though!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
so how many of you ues Google Chrome its the best of the best



i no longer ues firefox



ueser uesing firefox try out Google Chrome its the best and you love it vary march
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
hmm. quite once more. im tellin ya i hate the offseason.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
TS Thane
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting RukusBoondocks:
I see a small spec of rain in the carribean. could that turn into a TD?



LOL



nop
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
I see a small spec of rain in the carribean could that turn into a TD?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see a small spec of rain in the carribean. could that turn into a TD?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's about time...

Miami NWS Discussion

..SOME RAIN FOR TUESDAY THEN COOLER WEATHER ON THE WAY FOR
MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK...

THE WEATHER WILL THEN BE DRY AND COOLER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CUBA REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS
WILL THEN BE IN THE 70S ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EXCEPT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND AROUND 40 WEST
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yqt1001:
How many here has heard of SOPA (Stop Online Piracy Act) yet?

There is a surprisingly few number in all the other sites that I asked at, despite the very serious consequences of the act.


SOPA= DOOM for the Internet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yqt1001:
How many here has heard of SOPA (Stop Online Piracy Act) yet?

There is a surprisingly few number in all the other sites that I asked at, despite the very serious consequences of the act.


SOPA would be a disaster. Fortunately, Senator Wyden is going to filibuster it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
Poor weather has caused the scheduled World Cup men's and women's slalom events in Munich on Jan. 1 to be cancelled, the International Skiing Federation (FIS) announced on Sunday.

The FIS said the weather was too mild for the planned races which will not be replaced this season.

Canada had the same problem when the Winter Olympics were last held there.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11172
TC 06B 223000Z

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 993.5mb/ 55.0kt

Raw T# 3.4
Adj T# 3.4
Final T# 3.3

Scene Type: EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
472. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
23:30 PM IST December 26 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southeast Bay Of Bengal:-

Cyclone alert For North Tamil Nadu And South Andhra Pradesh Coast

At 18:00 PM UTC, The deep depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved further northwards and intensified into cyclonic storm. Cyclonic Storm Thane lays centered near 11.0N 87.5E, or about 800 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 700 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), and 550 km west-southwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island).

The system is likely to move northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs. Then it is likely to move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by Friday morning.


According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -90C. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal at 9.0N to 16.0N east of 82.5E, over Andaman & Nicobar island, and adjoining Andaman sea. The poleward outflow is distinctly visible in the satellite imagery, which favors intensification.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

6 HRS: 11.5N 87.0E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.0N 86.5E - 45-50 knot (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 13.3N 84.5E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 13.0N 81.5E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from India Meteorological Department will be issued at around 0:00 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44721
Quoting SPLbeater:


and im brought to the fact that you must favor a certain TV show or comic based on the character? lol
Yeah.Lol.I watch the show with my daughter who is also responsable for up loading the pictures on my computer.It's called Suite Precure.I may have other pictures from a new one that's coming out and from past seasons.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"2011 - The Year in Volcanic Activity"

(cool pics)

Link

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
469. Skyepony (Mod)
More flooding in Malaysia.

Italy is still having wild fire issues.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37336
468. Skyepony (Mod)
Thailand high wave impact update..


Thai authorities in southern Songkhla province have evacuated seaside residents in Ranot district as high waves continue pounding the shore, and the governor is currently deciding whether to announce six districts along the shoreline as disaster areas, local media reported Monday. Governor Kritsada Boonrach inspected a village in Khlong Dan sub-district after 2-3 metre waves smashed the coast, forcing some 50 people of 20 households, mostly children and elders, to evacuate for a temporary stay at a nearby temple. The panicked villagers said the strong wind and huge waves were the most severe in recent years, and it was also the third time this year. Provincial authorities distributed relief packages and a medical team has been sent. A two million baht budget will be allocated to help repair homes damaged by the waves. The weather service warned that the ongoing northeast monsoon would cause scattered rainfall and isolated heavy rain in the lower South with waves 2-5 meters high in the Gulf of Thailand. Residents along the coastline are warned of high waves. All ships should proceed with caution and small boats keep ashore in the next few days. Hugh waves also hit some other southern provinces of Chumpon, Surat Thani and Prachuab Kirikan on Sunday, damaging hundreds houses, shops, restaurants and resorts as well as forcing a thousand of residents to evacuate.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37336
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh yes I have lots!!!! more where that came from.


and im brought to the fact that you must favor a certain TV show or comic based on the character? lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
466. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting yqt1001:
How many here has heard of SOPA (Stop Online Piracy Act) yet?

There is a surprisingly few number in all the other sites that I asked at, despite the very serious consequences of the act.


SOPA rap
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37336
Ha you can find my local meteorologist last name in his first name.His name is Gary McGrady on fox 5.Wonder if someone pointed that out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


A Beacon For The Holidays

On the day last week that our crewmates left planet Earth bound for the ISS, we were treated to another incredible sight -- just in time for the holidays. Comet Lovejoy, which unexpectedly survived a close encounter with the sun's atmosphere, painted glowing swath of light millions of miles long across dense star fields of the southern night sky. During several of our daily 15 sunrises onboard ISS we're able to see the comet in the predawn moments.
We are certainly very fortunate to have the opportunity to fly in space and to see such splendid sights. We are also fortunate to represent space agencies and countries committed to mankind making a home in space and to applying what we learn here to make life better on earth.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Quoting SPLbeater:


your avatar changing has gotten quite entertaining(no ofense) to watch, lol
Oh yes I have lots!!!! more where that came from.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How many here has heard of SOPA (Stop Online Piracy Act) yet?

There is a surprisingly few number in all the other sites that I asked at, despite the very serious consequences of the act.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JNCali:
Happy 'Day After' everyone!! Still no Puffy Jacket weather here in Mid TN and it doesn't appear to be forecast for the near future either.. Drudge is just headlining:2011 Year of the Disaster!... I'm sure we'll see a new blog entry today or tomorrow from Dr. M or associates...
Stay safe everyone!


aye, Jeff said he would update tomorrow
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Happy 'Day After' everyone!! Still no Puffy Jacket weather here in Mid TN and it doesn't appear to be forecast for the near future either.. Drudge is just headlining:2011 Year of the Disaster!... I'm sure we'll see a new blog entry today or tomorrow from Dr. M or associates...
Stay safe everyone!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
458. Skyepony (Mod)
Poor weather has caused the scheduled World Cup men's and women's slalom events in Munich on Jan. 1 to be cancelled, the International Skiing Federation (FIS) announced on Sunday.

The FIS said the weather was too mild for the planned races which will not be replaced this season.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37336
Quoting tampahurricane:
What kinda sever weather should we expect here in central Florida tomorrow? Thanks in advance :)


tomorrow, probably Florida wont see any severe weather...maybe 1 or 2 isolated storms dropping small hail or strong winds, but the main severe weather threat in Florida is today, from Pensacola to Tallahasee. Most likely high winds

Today

Tomorrow
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting Jedkins01:
Finally some rain and thunderstorms headed to Florida followed by cooler air! There's nothing more aggravating than a continuously warm and dry weather pattern in winter! haha


+1, it's about time!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
455. Skyepony (Mod)
Tampahurricane~ I'm thinking rain, maybe some thunderstorms. I-4 corridor & north should see more rain & such than south.

Expecting worse for the deep south & models hint at deep bombing over the New England.


Jed~ Got a little rain here today:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37336
454. Skyepony (Mod)
Article about what major cities across the US are trying to do to deal with the excessive run off. As the number of flooding events happen, it increases the flood events that lets loose untreated sewage & trash. Downstream is being littered by the consequences.


Any thoughts about the storm brewing for the East tomorrow? Always looking for the severe event to unfold when we mess up our emission schedule with a long holiday.. This looks like it coming.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37336
What kinda sever weather should we expect here in central Florida tomorrow? Thanks in advance :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Finally some rain and thunderstorms headed to Florida followed by cooler air! There's nothing more aggravating than a continuously warm and dry weather pattern in winter! haha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


When I stop makin' typos...I'll start correctin' yours ;-)


hahaha, yeah what usually happens for me, is that I type continuously to make sure don't lose track of what was on my mind, then after I finish it I go back and check for errors, accept this time its not letting me for whatever reason.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:


Thank you, BTW I made a few typos in there but this site is refusing to let me edit my comments right now so please don't correct the spelling errors :)


When I stop makin' typos...I'll start correctin' yours ;-)
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
Quoting presslord:


This will have to go near the top of the list of the 10 best posts of the year....


Thank you, BTW I made a few typos in there but this site is refusing to let me edit my comments right now so please don't correct the spelling errors :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:



There is a very real possibility for global centralization in the future. However, it certainly has nothing to do with peaceful people and scientists trying to stop destruction of environment, natural habitats and pollution of the atmosphere.

The fear of becoming more environmentally conscious comes from the fact that in parts of America there is a strong cultural phenomenon where people are convinced that technology, education, and change is always evil and must be associated somehow with communism. Its a stubborn belief of refusing to change without thinking it through. Its a choice to be ignorant, and anyone else who thinks differently and brings in change must automatically be wrong about everything. Sometimes change is bad, but sometimes so is tradition. Sometimes tradition is good, and sometimes so is change. Sadly many people, including even the highly educated, base most of their thinking on feeling, and how they want things to be or wish they were, rather than how they are, and thinking through what the right decision really is. The truth hearts, human nature sadly is to rebel against truth and adhere to systems we make up in our mind rather than the things that actually govern our existence.

The best thing we can do as human beings, it to choose to have a mindset of humbling ourselves, thinking more of the needs of others, and just loving and working together. We might not do it perfectly, but its the goal that counts.



This will have to go near the top of the list of the 10 best posts of the year....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
Quoting Patrap:
How Right-Wing Conspiracy Theories May Pose a Genuine Threat to Humanity
Tea Partiers, freaking out about "Agenda 21" and convinced global warming isn't real, are gumming up the works for those trying to save the planet.


December 25, 2011 |



The paranoia infecting a broad swath of the American right-wing can be comical at times -- think about Orly Taitz and her fellow Birthers. But we laugh at our own peril, because what Richard Hofstadter famously characterized as "the paranoid style in American politics" poses a serious threat to our future: the right's snowballing conspiracy theories could ultimately lead to disaster.

Consider what's happening in Virginia's Middle Peninsula on the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay, among the areas in the U.S. most vulnerable to climate change. Earlier this month, Darryl Fears, reporting for the Washington Post, offered a glimpse into the madness that city planners have faced in recent months as a local Tea Party group, convinced that a nefarious plot by scientists and city officials is afoot, have disrupted their work trying to mitigate the potential impacts of rising sea levels.

"The uprising," wrote Fears, "began at a February meeting about starting a business park for farming oysters in Mathews County." He continued:

The program to help restore the Chesapeake Bay oyster population was slated for land owned by the county, but it was shouted down as a useless federal program that would expand the national debt. The proposal was tabled.

As the opposition grew over the summer, confrontations became so heated that some planners posted uniformed police officers at meetings and others hired consultants to help calm audiences and manage the indoor environment, several planners said.

In James City County, speakers were shouted away from a podium. In Page County, angry farmers forced commissioners to stop a meeting. In Gloucester County, planners sat stone-faced as activists took turns reading portions of the 500-page Agenda 21 text, delaying a meeting for more than an hour.

"Agenda 21" is one of a number of silly but dangerous conspiracy theories sweeping through the fever swamps of the right. Although admittedly sinister-sounding, Agenda 21 is just a blueprint for sustainable development, especially in emerging economies. It outlines how wealthier countries can contribute to smarter growth through technology transfers and public education. It stresses the importance of fighting deforestation and conserving bio-diversity -- all things that normal people would consider wise.

The important thing to understand about Agenda 21 is that there is absolutely nothing binding or compelling member countries to implement any part of it. It's not a treaty -- it is entirely voluntary and certainly doesn't have any connection to local governments. Yet for the right, with its long John Birch Society undercurrent of paranoia about international institutions, Agenda 21 represents some kind of dark UN conspiracy to impose socialism on the "free world."

That craziness lies at the heart of Michele Bachmann's quixotic war on energy-efficient lightbulbs. Tim Murphy reported, "The Minnesota congresswoman is part of a movement that considers 'sustainability' an existential threat to the United States, one with far-reaching consequences for education, transportation, and family values."

Last year, during the Denver mayoral race, Tea Party candidate Dan Maes argued that a local bike-sharing program, a popular initiative among city residents, was a "very well-disguised" part of a plan by then-Denver mayor (and now Colorado governor) John Hickenlooper for "converting Denver into a United Nations community." Alex Jones constantly hawks the conspiracy. Glenn Beck warned it would lead to "centralized control over all of human life on planet Earth." And in September, Newt Gingrich, hoping to burnish his wingnutty creds, told a group of Orlando Tea Partiers that, if elected, his first order of business would be "to cease all federal funding of any kind of activity that relates to United Nations Agenda 21." (Currently, no federal funding of any kind is used for implementing Agenda 21.)

t's causing uprisings like that seen in Virginia at ordinarily dull city planning board meetings across the country. As Stephanie Mencimer reported for Mother Jones, "Agenda 21 paranoia has swept the Tea Party scene, driving activists around the country to delve into the minutiae of local governance... they're descending on planning meetings and transit debates, wielding PowerPoints about Agenda 21, and generally freaking out low-level bureaucrats with accusations about their roles in a supposed international conspiracy."

Agenda 21 is inextricably linked to the most dangerous conspiracy theory going: that 97 percent of the world's climate scientists are lying when they say human activities are contributing to global climate change. This, too, is supposedly in service of the goal of destroying capitalism, which means one has to believe that climatologists around the world are not only all very political -- enough to conspire to deceive the entire world -- but they also all share the same largely discredited ideology.

Back in Virginia, the Coastal Zone Management program is struggling to "help prepare for the predicted effects of climate change, especially sea-level rise on Virginia's coastal resources." The area is uniquely imperiled; in June, Darryl Fears, a science correspondent, reported that Hampton Roads is especially vulnerable because several rivers run through it on their way to the Chesapeake Bay. He continued:

Unfortunately, this crowded, low-lying area also has long-term geological issues to deal with. Thirty-five million years ago, a meteor landed relatively close by and created the Chesapeake Bay Impact Crater. Hampton Roads is also home to a downward-pressing glacial formation created during the Ice Age. Scientists theorize that these ancient occurrences are causing the land to sink -- and together account for about one-third of the sea-level change.

Fears notes that "the water has risen so much that Naval Station Norfolk is replacing 14 piers at $60 million each to keep ship-repair facilities high and dry," but "this geology is lost in local meetings, where distrust of the local and federal governments is at center stage."

And their harassment is having the desired effect of "freaking out low-level bureaucrats" trying to prepare the area for the changes to come, preparations that have absolutely nothing to do with the United Nations, Agenda 21 or "socialism." According to Fears, Shereen Hughes, a former planning commissioner, is "worried that some officials are giving ground to fearmongers. The uprising against smart growth 'is ridiculous' and 'a conspiracy theory,' she said. But it's effective."

Planners aren't saying this is wrong, Hughes said, because "most are afraid they won't have a job if they're too vocal about this issue." Tea Party members have political allies who "might stand up" against planners who complain, Hughes said.

In his excellent book, Collapse, scientist Jared Diamond looked at a number of societies that had seen their physical climates change. He tried to determine what made some cultures die out while others persevered. According to Diamond, it wasn't the severity of the change, or its speed that was the determining factor. One important variable was the foresight of those societies' leaders -- their ability to properly diagnose the problem and adapt, to come up with proactive solutions to the problems they faced.

Diamond, in an interview with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, said, "one always has to ask about people's cultural response. Why is it that people failed to perceive the problems developing around them, or if they perceived them, why did they fail to solve the problems that would eventually do them in? Why did some peoples perceive and recognize their problems and others not?" Diamond explained:

A theme that emerges...is insulation of the decision-making elite from the consequences of their actions. That is to say, in societies where the elites do not suffer from the consequences of their decisions, but can insulate themselves, the elite are more likely to pursue their short-term interests, even though that may be bad for the long-term interests of the society, including the children of the elite themselves.

Today, oil and gas corporations are still funding a bunch of crank climate change deniers in order to avoid regulations that might slow their "short-term interests" in extracting as much wealth as they can from traditional hydrocarbons. And here we have Tea Partiers -- a "movement" nurtured by business-friendly Republican operatives and backed by the Koch brothers' dirty energy money -- being whipped into a frenzy by the likes of Glenn Beck and shouting down local planners trying to do something about rising water levels. They're freaking out about energy-efficient lightbulbs and bike-sharing programs, the very sorts of things we need in order to stave off disaster.

So the next time you hear a wingnut spewing feverish nonsense about "climategate" or the "globalist agenda," remember that this is not just fodder for late-night TV monologues, but the kind of stuff that has in the past brought societies faced with changing environments to their ultimate end.



There is a very real possibility for global centralization in the future. However, it certainly has nothing to do with peaceful people and scientists trying to stop destruction of environment, natural habitats and pollution of the atmosphere.

The fear of becoming more environmentally conscious comes from the fact that in parts of America there is a strong cultural phenomenon where people are convinced that technology, education, and change is always evil and must be associated somehow with communism. Its a stubborn belief of refusing to change without thinking it through. Its a choice to be ignorant, and anyone else who thinks differently and brings in change must automatically be wrong about everything. Sometimes change is bad, but sometimes so is tradition. Sometimes tradition is good, and sometimes so is change. Sadly many people, including even the highly educated, base most of their thinking on feeling, and how they want things to be or wish they were, rather than how they are, and thinking through what the right decision really is. The truth hearts, human nature sadly is to rebel against truth and adhere to systems we make up in our mind rather than the things that actually govern our existence.

The best thing we can do as human beings, it to choose to have a mindset of humbling ourselves, thinking more of the needs of others, and just loving and working together. We might not do it perfectly, but its the goal that counts.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well I had a good christmas don't know about you all,and christmas dinner was Deeelicous!!.me and my husband cooked it together.


your avatar changing has gotten quite entertaining(no ofense) to watch, lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
444. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB05-2011
17:30 PM IST December 26 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Deep Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal

Pre-cyclone watch

At 12:00 PM UTC, Deep Depression BOB05-2011 over southeast Bay of Bengal moved further northwards during past 6 hours and lay centered over southeast Bay of Bengal near 10.5N 87.5E, or about 800 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 700 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 600 km west-southwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island).

The system is likely to move northwestwards, intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs. Then it is likely to move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by Friday morning

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -80C. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal 7.0N to 16.0N east of 83.0E, over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, and adjoining Andaman Sea. The associated convection does not show any significant change. The poleward outflow is distinctly visible in the satellite imagery, which favors intensification.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 998 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 27-28C over the region. It is relatively less towards Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coast becoming 26-27C. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system. It is 50-80 kj/cm2 to the west and west northwest of the system and less than 50 kj/cm2 near Tamil Nadu and north Sri Lanka coast. The Madden Jullian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 5. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 5 during next one week. The phase 5 is favorable for intensification, as per our past studies. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 14.0N and hence provides required poleward outflow for intensification of the system. The low level convergence show no change during past 12 hours as well as upper level divergence. The vertical wind shear between 200 to 850 HPA levels is low to moderate (10-15 knots). However, it increases towards the coast of Sri Lanka and India becoming 20-30 knots (moderate to high)

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

6 HRS: 11.0N 87.5E - 30 knot (Deep Depression)
12 HRS: 11.5N 87.0E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 13.0N 85.3E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 13.0N 82.7E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44721
Georgia River Reindeer Population Dramatically Dropping (PHOTOS)
First Posted: 12/25/11 10:16 AM ET Updated: 12/25/11 10:16 AM ET


If Santa is ever in need of some replacement reindeer, he will have considerably less to choose from than he would have 10 years ago.

The world's largest reindeer population has plummeted up to 92 percent in the last few decades. Once standing at 900,000, the George River herd now stands at 74,000, according to Survival International.

Important to the Innu and Cree people of Quebec and Labrador in eastern Canada, iron-ore mining, hydro-power flooding and road building are reportedly to blame for the depleting numbers of reindeer.

Innu elder and Chief Georges-Ernest Gregoire told Survival International: "All the massive industrial 'development' projects that have been imposed on our land in the last forty years have undoubtedly had a cumulative impact on the size of the caribou herd. That is why we need real control over our territories and resources, and why we must be involved as equals in decisions that affect our lands and the animals that live there."

Known as caribou in North America, the hunting season was delayed this year due to concerns over the stability of the George River herd. Environment and Conservation, Labrador and Aboriginal Affairs made the announcement in August this year, days before the hunting season was due to start. The season was reduced from eight months to three months with the season officially starting on December 20 this year, according to The Labradorian.

The International Union for the Conservation of Nature writes the number of places in Canada where reindeer can be found has been greatly reduced. In Europe, poaching within the Russian Federation poses a major threat to the population.

This past week in Ohio, drivers were on the lookout for Santa delivering early presents as a patrolman rescued a lone reindeer along the northeast Ohio highway. The animal fell from a livestock truck after the driver hit a bump in the road and the doors of the trailer opened.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Well I had a good christmas don't know about you all,and christmas dinner was Deeelicous!!.me and my husband cooked it together.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Does this mean I can't post AccuWeather pics?


i wouldnt even if i could, lol.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting sunlinepr:


Pretty hefty storm, I am going to have to track the indian ocean and the south pacific this year!
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2293
Quoting DoctorDave1:
"November 2011 was the globe's 12th warmest November on record"

The 12 warmest? Implies lack of global warming.


This statement implies lack of understanding of the subject. Please read up on the difference between weather and climate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:



Yippie-kai-yay!


Does this mean I can't post AccuWeather pics?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 487 - 437

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
69 °F
Overcast