Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:55 PM GMT on December 14, 2011

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With one of the wildest weather years in U.S. history drawing to a close, it's time to look back at some of this year's unprecedented onslaught of billion-dollar weather disasters--and the lessons we should have learned. One of these disasters was the approximately $1 billion in damage due to flooding from Tropical Storm Lee, which brought torrential rains along a swath from Louisiana to New York in early September. Among the hardest hit cities was Binghamton, New York (population 47,000), where record rains due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee on September 8 brought a 1-in-200 to 1-in-500 year flood to the city's Susquehanna River. A flood 8.5 inches higher than the city's flood walls spilled over into the city that day, damaging or destroying over 7,300 buildings in Greater Binghamton, and causing hundreds of millions of dollars in damage. Damage to Binghamton's sewage treatment plant and city infrastructure alone are estimated at $26 million. Damage to one elementary school is estimated at $11 - 19 million. The total damage to the county Binghamton lies in (Broome) and the downstream Tioga County is estimated at $1 billion. I argue that there is strong evidence that the extra moisture that global warming has added to the atmosphere over the past 40 years could have been "the straw that broke the camel's back" which allowed Binghamton's flood walls to be overtopped, causing tens of millions in damages. Had this event occurred 40 years ago, before global warming added an extra 4% moisture to the atmosphere, the Susquehanna flood would have likely stayed within the city's flood walls.


Figure 1. Front Street Bridge on the Susquehanna River in Vestal, NY, immediately following the flood of September 8, 2011. Image credit: USGS, New York.


Figure 2. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton crested on September 8, 2011, at the highest flood height on record, 25.71'. The previous record flood was 25', set June 28, 2006. Flood records in Binghamton go back to 1846. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.


Figure 3. Damage survey of Binghamton, New York after rains from the remains of Tropical Storm Lee sent the Susquehanna River over the city's flood walls on September 8, 2011. Image credit: City of Binghamton.

Binghamton's 2nd 1-in-200-year+ flood in five years
This year's flood is the second 1-in-200 to 1-in-500 year flood in the past five years to hit Binghamton. On June 26 - 29, 2006, tropical moisture streaming northwards over a front stalled out over New York state brought over thirteen inches of rain to portions of southern New York. The Susquehanna River swelled to record levels, triggering devastating flooding that cost at least $227 million. In Binghamton, the Susquehanna River crested eleven feet over flood stage, the greatest flood since records began in 1846. The flood walls protecting Binghamton were overtopped by a few inches, allowing water to pour into the city and cause tens of millions of dollars in damage. This flood is another example of a case where global warming may have been "the straw that broke the camel's back", allowing the flood walls to be overtopped by a few inches. While it is not impossible that the 2006 flood and the 2011 flood could have occurred naturally so close together in time, such a rare double flood has been made more likely by the extra moisture added to the atmosphere due to global warming.


Figure 4. Susquehanna River floodwaters overtop a flood wall along North Shore Drive, Binghamton, NY, on June 28, 2006. Photo courtesy of Alan A. Katz, and available in the USGS report, Flood of June 26 - 29, 2006, Mohawk, Delaware, and Susquehanna River Basins, New York.

The 2011 Tropical Storm Lee flood event on the Susquehanna: a convergence of rare events
Near-record rains fell over much of New York, Pennsylvania, and surrounding states during the first four weeks of August 2011, thanks to an active weather pattern that brought numerous thunderstorms. By August 27, Binghamton, New York had already received nearly double its normal total of 3.45" of rain for the month. When Hurricane Irene swept northwards along the mid-Atlantic coast on August 28, the storm dumped record rains that triggered billions of dollars in flood damage. The Susquehanna River Valley and Binghamton were spared the heaviest of Irene's rains and suffered only minor flooding, but the region received 3 - 5 inches of rain, saturating the soils. The 2.72 inches of rain that fell on Binghamton brought the total rainfall for August 2011 to 8.90", making it the rainiest August in city history (weather records go back to 1890.) Irene's rains helped give New York, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Vermont their wettest Augusts since record keeping began in 1895.


Figure 5. Rainfall amounts from Hurricane Irene ranged from 3 - 5 inches over Binghamton and the Susquehanna River Valley upstream (northeast) of the city. Image credit: David Roth, NOAA/HPC.


Figure 6. Rainfall amounts from Hurricane Lee ranged from 5 - 10 inches over Binghamton and the Susquehanna River Valley upstream (northeast) of the city. Image credit: David Roth, NOAA/HPC.

Irene set the stage for what was to become the greatest flood in recorded history on the Susquehanna River. On September 5, a front stalled out over Pennsylvania and New York. Tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Tropical Storm Lee was lifted up over the front, and heavy downpours resulted. The rains continued for four days, and were amplified by the arrival of Tropical Storm Lee's remnants on September 7, plus a stream of moisture emanating from far-away Hurricane Katia, 1,000 miles to the south-southeast. Binghamton, New York received 8.70" of rain in 24 hours September 7 - 8, the greatest 24-hour rainfall in city history. This was nearly double the city's previous all-time record (4.68" on Sep 30 - Oct. 1, 2010.) The record rains falling on soils still saturated from Hurricane Irene's rains ran off rapidly into the Susquehanna River, which rose an astonishing twenty feet in just 24 hours. By noon on September 8, the rampaging Susquehanna River crested in Binghamton at 25.71', the highest level since records began in 1846. The river would have risen higher had the city's flood walls been higher, but since the water was overtopping the flood walls and spreading out over the city, the river was limited to how high it could rise. By month's end, precipitation in Binghamton for September 2011 totaled 16.58", more than thirteen inches above normal, making it Binghamton's wettest month since records began in 1890.

We can thus see how the record Susquehanna River flood of September 8, 2011 was due to a convergence of rare events, which included moisture from three tropical cyclones:

1) The unusually heavy rains during the first four weeks of August, before the arrival of Hurricane Irene.

2) Hurricane Irene's 3 - 5 inches of rain.

3) The extreme rains from Tropical Storm Lee's remnants.

4) The enhanced rainfall on September 7 - 8 due to a moisture plume from Hurricane Katia.

Had any one of these events not occurred, it is questionable whether the flood walls in Binghamton would have been overtopped. One could also argue that the flood walls would not have been overtopped had there been less development in the Susquehanna's floodplain. Dr. Peter Knuepfer, Associate Professor of Geology and director of the Environmental Studies Program at Binghamton University, and Dr. Burrell Montz, who is now Professor and Chair of Geography at East Carolina University, wrote in a 2007 essay titled, Flooding and Watershed Management, "the 2006 flood might be considered a land use flood, due to the levels of development in floodplains in Conklin and elsewhere in the Binghamton area." They argued that development on the Susquehanna's floodplain has been driven by economics, without enough thought to how development increases flood heights downstream. "It can hardly be argued that we need to reacquaint the river with its floodplain," they concluded. In an email I received from Dr. Knuepfer, he indicated that some positive steps have been taken to reduce flood vulnerability in the Binghamton area before this year's flood: "There's still more development in the floodplain than should be, though there is a little more awareness (but only a little!) about the downstream implications of raising levees and walls (and certainly this seems to be true at the Federal level). From Binghamton downstream--the Susquehanna River had a 200+ year flood (the number one chooses depends on how one treats the historic flood record, but it was clearly an event well beyond the historical record.) Some areas flooded by the river in 2006--houses, specifically--no longer exist due to FEMA buy-outs. Yet there is still development in flood-prone areas, so there is still a degree of floodplain development that contributes significantly to the disaster. On the other hand, this flood overtopped levees and flood walls precisely because it was a bigger natural event than these were designed to withstand. So there's still more exposure than I'd like to see, but this was a natural disaster." To illustrate how development in a flood plain can increase flood height, consider this stat from nrdc.org: a 1-inch rainstorm falling on a 1-acre natural meadow produces about 28 bathtubs full of runoff into local rivers. However, a 1-inch rainstorm falling on a 1-acre parking lot produces sixteen times as much runoff--448 bathtubs full. We obviously can't convert our parking lots into meadows, but we can create permeable pavement, planted swales around parking lots, rain gardens planted along sidewalks, green roofs, and more trees to help absorb rainwater like a sponge. The city of Philadelphia has recently started an ambitious effort to reduce flood through such green infrastructure efforts.


Figure 7. Water vapor satellite image taken at 2:45 pm EDT September 7, 2011, during the height of the heavy rainstorm affecting the Susquehanna River Valley near Binghamton, NY. Moisture came from the remains of Tropical Storm Lee, tropical moisture streaming northwards and lifting over a stalled front, and from Hurricane Katia, located 1,000 miles to the south-southeast, between Florida and Bermuda. White and blue colors show where copious atmospheric moisture lies, while brown colors show dry air. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The global warming connection
Finally, I'll add one more "straw that broke the camel's back" that contributed to the overtopping of the flood walls in Binghamton: global warming. Had the flood of September 8, 2011 occurred in the atmosphere of the 1970s or earlier, the flood walls would have been less likely to be overtopped. There is a well-established relationship in atmospheric physics called the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, which says that atmospheric moisture will increase by 6% - 7% for every degree Centigrade increase in Earth's temperature. Global sea surface temperatures in the regions where hurricanes form, between 30°S and 30°N latitude, warmed 0.9°F (0.5°C) between 1970 - 2004, due to global warming (Trenberth et. al, 2007.) Satellite observations show that atmospheric moisture over the oceans increased by 1.3% per decade between 1988 - 2003 (Trenberth, 2006), so we can expect that the amount of moisture storms have to work with has increased by 4% since 1970 and 5% since 1900 (IPCC, 2007.) The amount of rainfall a hurricane can now drop as a result of this increase in moisture can be much more than 4 - 5%, though. The extra moisture in the atmosphere helps intensify storms by releasing "latent heat" energy when it condenses into rain. Latent heat is the extra energy that is required to convert liquid water to gaseous water vapor, and this energy is liberated when the vapor condenses back to rain. The released latent heat energy invigorates the updrafts in a storm, allowing it to draw in moisture from an area greater than usual (a typical storm draws in moisture from an area 3 - 5 times the radius of the precipitating region, according to Trenberth et.al, 2003.) This effect is thought to be the main reason why heavy precipitation events--the ones most likely to cause floods--have been increasing over the past 50 years, in general agreement with the predictions of climate models (Figure 8.) A 2008 study in the Netherlands by Lenderink and Meijgaard called "Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes," found that "one-hour precipitation extremes increase twice as fast with rising temperatures as expected from the Clausius–Clapeyron relation when daily mean temperatures exceed 12°C. In addition, simulations with a high-resolution regional climate model show that one-hour precipitation extremes increase at a rate close to 14% per degree of warming in large parts of Europe." A 2007 study led by Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, "Water and energy budgets of hurricanes: Case studies of Ivan and Katrina", looked at how much additional rainfall hurricanes might be dropping as a result of global warming. The researchers found that global warming likely increased the amount of rain dropped Hurricane Ivan and Hurricane Katrina by 6 - 8%. The authors wrote, "We conclude that the environmental changes related to human influences on climate have very likely changed the odds in favor of heavier rainfalls and here we suggest that this can be quantified to date to be of order 6 to 8% since 1970. It probably also results in more intense storms. The key point is that the value is not negligible, and nor is it large enough to dominate over the natural processes already in place. In the case of Katrina and New Orleans, where rainfalls locally exceeded 12 inches (305 mm), this would mean an enhancement of about 0.75 to 1 inch (19 to 25 mm). Although incremental, such changes can cause thresholds to be exceeded (the straw that breaks the camel's back.) Small differences of a few percent in rainfall can matter a great deal when that extra water is concentrated by a river drainage system to create a flood. For example, observations of flooding events in the Pennsylvania's 7.2 square km Mahantango Creek watershed (Troch et al., 1993) showed one case where two rainfall events with the same maximum precipitation rate generated flow rates in the creek a factor of seven different, even though the difference in total precipitation between the two events was about a factor of two. A modeling study by Jha et al. (2004) predicted that climate change would cause a 21% annual increase in precipitation over the Upper Mississippi River basin by 2040. However, their model predicted that streamflow would increase much more than this--51%. This occurred as a result of rain falling on saturated soils, which creates disproportionately large runoff. Much of the rain falling on dry soils takes time to infilrate the soil, and the arrival of this water into a river is delayed. But if soils are saturated, a greater percentage of the rain runs off immediately into the river, resulting in higher stream flows and higher flood potential. The largest increases in streamflow in their model occurred in spring and summer, when flood danger is at its highest.


Figure 8. Percent increase in the amount falling in heavy precipitation events (defined as the heaviest 1% of all daily events) from 1958 to 2007, for each region of the U.S. There are clear trends toward more very heavy precipitation events for the nation as a whole, and particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. Climate models predict that precipitation will increasingly fall in very heavy events in coming decades. Image credit: United States Global Change Research Program. Figure updated from Groisman, P.Ya., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004: Contemporary changes of the hydro-logical cycle over the contiguous United States, trends derived from in situ observations. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 5(1), 64-85.

Conclusion
There is strong evidence that the extra moisture that global warming has added to the atmosphere over the past 40 years could have been "the straw that broke the camel's back" in the case of the Susquehanna River floods of June 2006 and September 8, 2011, which overtopped the flood walls in Binghamton, New York, causing tens of millions of dollars in damages. During September 8, 2011 flood, the Susquehanna River rose twenty feet in 24 hours and topped the flood walls in Binghamton by 8.5 inches, so just a 6% reduction in the flood height would have led to no overtopping of the flood walls and a huge decrease in damage. Extra moisture in the air due to global warming could have easily contributed this 6% of extra flood height. It is possible that detailed computer modeling studies of the event may conclude that global warming was not a significant factor in this particular case, but we will see an increasing number of these back-breaking extreme flooding events in the future as the climate continues to warm and we increasingly load the dice in favor of greater extreme rainfall events. It is wildly improbable that two 1-in-200 to 1-in-500 year floods could have occurred on the same river within five years of each other naturally. Increased moisture in the atmosphere due to global warming and increased flood plain development are shifting the odds in favor of more extreme floods occurring more often. Our flood control system, which is designed for the climate of the 20th century and a lesser degree of flood plain development, is bound to be increasingly overwhelmed if we continue to put more structures into flood plains and continue to pump more heat-trapping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Unfortunately, we are not dealing well with the "new normal" for extreme floods. The National Flood Insurance Program, which charges unrealistically low insurance premiums, is $18 billion in debt. A government shut-down was narrowly avoided in September over disputes on how to pay for the damages from this year's 1-in-100 to 1-in-500 year floods on the Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Souris, Susquehanna, and hundreds of smaller rivers. Federal funding to operate 321 USGS stream gauges critical for issuing accurate and timely flood warnings was eliminated this year, and funding for an additional 69 gauges is threatened, including gauges on the Susquehanna River where this year's extreme flooding occurred. Eliminating funding for stream gauges in an era of increasing floods is like being too cheap to replace your cracked windshield that's hard to see out of, when you're about to drive the most difficult and dangerous road your car has ever attempted, at night, in a heavy rainstorm. You'll be unaware of the coming danger until it's too late to avoid it. Flood damages are going to grow much worse and potentially cause serious harm to the American economy in the coming decades, and our politicians need to adopt intelligent policies that don't cater to special interests in order to deal with the increasingly frequent and larger extreme floods that a warmer climate will bring.

References
IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Jha, M., Z. Pan, E. S. Takle, and R. Gu (2004), Impacts of climate change on streamflow in the Upper Mississippi River Basin: A regional climate model perspective, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D09105, doi:10.1029/2003JD003686.

Lenderink, G., and E. van Meijgaard (2008), Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes,, Nature Geoscience 1, 511 - 514 (2008)
Published online: 20 July 2008 | doi:10.1038/ngeo262

Suro, T.P., G.D. Firda, and C.O. Szabo, 2009, Flood of June 26 - 29, 2006, Mohawk, Delaware, and Susquehanna River Basins, New York, USGS Open-File Report 2009-94-1063.

Trenberth, K. E., A. Dai, R. M. Rasmussen and D. B. Parsons, 2003: The changing character of precipitation", Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 1205-1217.

Trenberth, K. E., C. A. Davis and J. Fasullo, 2007: "Water and energy budgets of hurricanes: Case studies of Ivan and Katrina," J. Geophys. Res., 112, D23106, doi:10.1029/2006JD008303.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith. 2005. "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor," Climate Dynamics 24:741-758.

Trenberth, K. E., 2011: Changes in precipitation with climate change. Climate Research, 47, 123-138,
doi:10.3354/cr00953.

Troch, P.A., J.A. Smith, E.F. Wood, and F.P. de Troch, "Hydrologic Controls of Large Floods in a Small Basin: Central Appalachian Case Study", Journal of Hydrology, 156:285-309, 1994.

Other posts looking back at the remarkable weather events of 2011
Wettest year on record in Philadelphia; 2011 sets record for wet/dry extremes in U.S.
Hurricane Irene: New York City dodges a potential storm surge mega-disaster

Jeff Masters

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Wow, watch our "eye" in Germany!

source: wetteronline.de
But nothing too serious till now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cotillion:


Republicans c. 2011 are rather similar to the Tories in 1997-2001. Not in terms of policy (Tories don't go that right wing), but rather the direction of rhetoric - moving to appease their base. Unfortunately for them, the only candidates who could give Obama a run for their money are the same ones the GOP base can't stomach (Romney, for example).

Considering the economy and the immediate future, it might not be a bad election to lose, so to speak.

Beware judging American politics from an European perspective (and vice versa). The spectrum is different as is the qualities that the electorate look for. I found getting an explanation from a moderate Republican that I knew as to why Bush was voted in twice enlightening considering the media and views at the time over here.

================================================
Of course, a country like the UK, which has been basically socialist since WWII, is not going to have the same kind of conservatives than those in the US. We have watched the UK go from a world power to a second rate nation, and would rather not repeat those same errors. A smart country looks at ideas that don't work elsewhere and don't repeat them. Hopefully, we won't get a repeat of the fabulously successful British NHS.
================================================
Rating agencies still count, otherwise the injured Gallic pride would not be so damaged over the imminent downgrade. Banks work a little different as there is still an expectation of bailout even when they fail, which distorts the credit rating (from shaky, which the financial sector is, to a surefire return as the taxpayer will foot the bill).

Plus, pulling out of the banks now regardless of your investing position is a risky move considering their solvency issues.

===============================================
If rating agencies still do any good, why are all the European markets up this morning and the "injured" banks also all up? We don't need Fitch, Moody's, et al, to tell us what we already know. If they were doing this in 2007, I might have respect for them. Rather, they were handing out AAA ratings like candy, including Lehman Brothers two weeks before it went belly up. How can anyone think these guys know what they're doing? The difference is banks and brokerage house have stopped paying these thieves under the table for good ratings, so now they're pouting and giving every one bad ratings.
================================================
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yqt1001:
Anyone watching the Republican debate? I'm watching the live feed through the BBC (probably a nice left bias being shown). I must admit, most republicans make no sense at all. Ron Paul seems to make the most sense of them all, but he is more of an independent than an actual conservative.

I'm sorry, but if I weren't ideologically opposed to the republicans, and I didn't support the democrats at all (or if I was old enough to vote and even lived in the US), I would go independent next year. The republicans don't seem to care about anyone but the people who financially support them this year..they don't even show any interest in anything but (incorrect) foreign politics and Obama bashing. I mean really!? The terrorists are attacking the US because the US is free, not because you guys stopped funding them...? *sigh*

I kinda wish that the US wasn't the heart of the world so this stupidity wouldn't actually matter to anyone outside of the US. I really hope that someone who can actually run a country is able to get a majority in the US government next year.

Sorry if I offended someone, but really, from a foreigner looking in, it's pretty sad, especially when I compare our conservatives to yours. Thankfully Sarah Palin isn't in it this year. XD


Republicans c. 2011 are rather similar to the Tories in 1997-2001. Not in terms of policy (Tories don't go that right wing), but rather the direction of rhetoric - moving to appease their base. Unfortunately for them, the only candidates who could give Obama a run for their money are the same ones the GOP base can't stomach (Romney, for example).

Considering the economy and the immediate future, it might not be a bad election to lose, so to speak.

Beware judging American politics from an European perspective (and vice versa). The spectrum is different as is the qualities that the electorate look for. I found getting an explanation from a moderate Republican that I knew as to why Bush was voted in twice enlightening considering the media and views at the time over here.

Quoting sar2401:


And amazing enough, all those banks are up in the after hours, and all the futures are higher. No one cares about rating agencies any longer. They are always the last one to catch the bus, and everyone already knows how bad things are before they ever issue a rating. They should just close up and save us a lot of money.


Rating agencies still count, otherwise the injured Gallic pride would not be so damaged over the imminent downgrade. Banks work a little different as there is still an expectation of bailout even when they fail, which distorts the credit rating (from shaky, which the financial sector is, to a surefire return as the taxpayer will foot the bill).

Plus, pulling out of the banks now regardless of your investing position is a risky move considering their solvency issues.
--

British-born author, literary critic and journalist Christopher Hitchens has died, aged 62, according to Vanity Fair magazine. Link
--

And the weather, looks like the storm in the Channel now may cause central Northern Europe a problem or two. Looks like the conveyor belt of storms is to stop for a bit.
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Good morning from pressure falling Germany/West Europe!


webcam sky over my place (Mainz near Frankfurt)
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Downgrade continues...

Fitch downgrades world's top banks
From Hussein Saddique, CNN December 16, 2011 -- Updated 0222 GMT (1022 HKT)

New York (CNN) -- The ratings firm Fitch downgraded a cluster of the world's largest banks Thursday, pointing to trading challenges facing international markets.

The banks included Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, as well as Europe's Barclays, Societe Generale and BNP Paribas.

Germany's Deutsche Bank and Switerzland's Credit Suisse were also downgraded.


And amazing enough, all those banks are up in the after hours, and all the futures are higher. No one cares about rating agencies any longer. They are always the last one to catch the bus, and everyone already knows how bad things are before they ever issue a rating. They should just close up and save us a lot of money.
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359. JLPR2
Quoting sar2401:


I think that thing, in one form or another, has been sitting off Panama for about three weeks. :)


yeah, the energy has been jumping between the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific for awhile.
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What happened with Agnes? I think she caused almost all her damage by flooding. Did she get retired?
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Quoting JLPR2:
Rather interesting system just offshore Panama.


I think that thing, in one form or another, has been sitting off Panama for about three weeks. :)
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Quoting yqt1001:
Anyone watching the Republican debate? I'm watching the live feed through the BBC (probably a nice left bias being shown). I must admit, most republicans make no sense at all. Ron Paul seems to make the most sense of them all, but he is more of an independent than an actual conservative.

I'm sorry, but if I weren't ideologically opposed to the republicans, and I didn't support the democrats at all (or if I was old enough to vote and even lived in the US), I would go independent next year. The republicans don't seem to care about anyone but the people who financially support them this year..they don't even show any interest in anything but (incorrect) foreign politics and Obama bashing. I mean really!? The terrorists are attacking the US because the US is free, not because you guys stopped funding them...? *sigh*

I kinda wish that the US wasn't the heart of the world so this stupidity wouldn't actually matter to anyone outside of the US. I really hope that someone who can actually run a country is able to get a majority in the US government next year.

Sorry if I offended someone, but really, from a foreigner looking in, it's pretty sad, especially when I compare our conservatives to yours. Thankfully Sarah Palin isn't in it this year. XD


I agree Ron Paul is probably the best the Republicans have in terms of making any progress, but he's not electable. The next best is Huntsman, but he has no money and no one knows him either.

As far as the rest of your anti-American rant, exactly who else would you like to see as the world's superpower? China? Russia? The (chuckle) EU? Let's face it, for a country that could turn any other country to glass in minutes, I think we've been pretty restrained. And next time there's a little trouble spot in the world, call France. They'll be glad to help, and we'll have more money to pay off our bills.
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355. JLPR2
Rather interesting system just offshore Panama.
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Quoting scottiesaunt:
"Quoting TampaSpin:



They do a very poor job of that decision making Dr. Masters IMO! You might want to evaluate the process. Just my opinion tho!"


Dr Masters may want to evaluate the people that he has given admin authority to.


lol, this
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"Quoting TampaSpin:



They do a very poor job of that decision making Dr. Masters IMO! You might want to evaluate the process. Just my opinion tho!"


Dr Masters may want to evaluate the people that he has given admin authority to.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
did you guys no that TS LEE did the same thing TS Allison did in 2001 and be came a STS at some point of its life



so the next ? is will TS LEE get its name retired


It shouldn't be, considering the flooding in the northeast occurred after its demise as a tropical cyclone. That's like retiring an Igor strength hurricane that makes the transition to an extratropical cyclone prior to striking Atlantic Canada. Sure, it might cause damage, but not as a named storm. So why retire it?
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Downgrade continues...

Fitch downgrades world's top banks
From Hussein Saddique, CNN December 16, 2011 -- Updated 0222 GMT (1022 HKT)

New York (CNN) -- The ratings firm Fitch downgraded a cluster of the world's largest banks Thursday, pointing to trading challenges facing international markets.

The banks included Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, as well as Europe's Barclays, Societe Generale and BNP Paribas.

Germany's Deutsche Bank and Switerzland's Credit Suisse were also downgraded.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
347. BtnTx
Quoting jrweatherman:
Haven't been on in weeks. And of course, global warming is the topic. I can't wait for 30 years from now when we're talking about the earth freezing over.
In 1994 The Eagles made a music album "Hell Freezes Over" maybe they were on to something? Or not.
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Quoting Grothar:


All I know is that I was saying it in the 1940's, so maybe Spongebob stole it from us. That is the advantage one has being old. We derive great enjoyment when the younger generation thinks they have discovered something new, which in reality, is something that is already old. But that is the way of the world. I am sure the generation preceding me felt the same. It is the continuity of culture; the fabric which ties us together as a civilization.
Yeah just like how some of the more recent songs sound as though their from the 80's.And talk about bringing styles back.There trying to bring leg warmers back...Ew.They got on my nerves in the 80's and i don't want to see them again.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Antarctica.
That's where I'm making my next flight to then ;).Opps!!!.Global warming got to it before I did.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17799
Haven't been on in weeks. And of course, global warming is the topic. I can't wait for 30 years from now when we're talking about the earth freezing over.
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344. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
TROPICAL STORM WASHI (T1121)
12:00 PM JST December 16 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon East Of Mindanao

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Washi (1000 hPa) located at 7.7N 127.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center in northern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 8.7N 122.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 9.1N 117.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 9.1N 113.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46907
343. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippine Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TROPICAL STORM SENDONG (WASHI)
11:00 AM PhST December 16 2011
=================================

Tropical Storm "SENDONG" has slightly intensified as it moves toward Davao Oriental

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Sendong located at 7.5°N 127.8°E or 180 km east southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Signal Warnings
===============

Signal Warning #2
-----------------

Visayas region
=============
1.Southern Leyte
2.Bohol
3.Southern Cebu
4.Southern Negros
5.Siquijor Island

Mindanao region
==============
1.Surigao Del Norte
2.Siargao Island
3.Surigao Del Sur
4.Dinagat Province
5.Agusan Provinces
6.Davao del Norte
7.Davao Oriental
8.Samal Island
9.Lanao Provinces
10.Misamis Provinces
11.Zamboanga Provinces
12.North Cotabato
13.Compostela Valley
14.Bukidnon
15.Camiguin
16.Maguindanao

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Luzon region
============
1.Palawan
2.Cuyo Island

Visayas region
=============
1.Eastern Samar
2.Western Samar
3.Northern Leyte
4.Northern Cebu
5.Northern Negros
6.Iloilo
7.Capiz
8.Antique
9.Aklan
10.Guimaras Province

Mindanao region
==============
1.Davao Del Sur
2.Sultan Kudarat
3.South Cotabato
4.Sarangani Province
5.Basilan Province

Additional Information
========================


Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.

Mining operators and small scale miners are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides and take necessary precautionary measures.

Fishing boats and other small sea crafts are advised not to venture out into the sea.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today and the hourly updates.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46907
Quoting washingtonian115:
Crap another rain storm for us next week.Where's the cold weather when you need it?.

Antarctica.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Okay...Old Maaan.Lol.That was from Spongebob. :)


All I know is that I was saying it in the 1940's, so maybe Spongebob stole it from us. That is the advantage one has being old. We derive great enjoyment when the younger generation thinks they have discovered something new, which in reality, is something that is already old. But that is the way of the world. I am sure the generation preceding me felt the same. It is the continuity of culture; the fabric which ties us together as a civilization.
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Crap another rain storm for us next week.Where's the cold weather when you need it?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17799
Quoting Grothar:


You're not the boss of me. :) Why don't you post some images of the storm in Europe. I can't seem to find any good ones. Make yourself useful.
Okay...Old Maaan.Lol.That was from Spongebob. :)
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17799
Quoting SPLbeater:


thanks guys :D cant learn if i dont ask, lol


DMIOP
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Aren't you supposed to be in bed?


You're not the boss of me. :) Why don't you post some images of the storm in Europe. I can't seem to find any good ones. Make yourself useful.
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Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting presslord:


feelin' pretty old myself....I think my daughter has found The One...and I'm dealing with not being the most important man in her life anymore...


It happens, press. But it gets better, trust me.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yqt1001:
Anyone watching the Republican debate? I'm watching the live feed through the BBC (probably a nice left bias being shown). I must admit, most republicans make no sense at all. Ron Paul seems to make the most sense of them all, but he is more of an independent than an actual conservative.

I'm sorry, but if I weren't ideologically opposed to the republicans, and I didn't support the democrats at all (or if I was old enough to vote and even lived in the US), I would go independent next year. The republicans don't seem to care about anyone but the people who financially support them this year..they don't even show any interest in anything but (incorrect) foreign politics and Obama bashing. I mean really!? The terrorists are attacking the US because the US is free, not because you guys stopped funding them...? *sigh*

I kinda wish that the US wasn't the heart of the world so this stupidity wouldn't actually matter to anyone outside of the US. I really hope that someone who can actually run a country is able to get a majority in the US government next year.

Sorry if I offended someone, but really, from a foreigner looking in, it's pretty sad, especially when I compare our conservatives to yours. Thankfully Sarah Palin isn't in it this year. XD
The name Sarah Palin should be illegal to say in the U.S."I can see Russia from my house".Pfffff.Yeah.Just like I can see Bermuda from my house over 1000 freakin miles away from me.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17799
Hey all tropic junkies and bored bloggers and...well..anybody lol.



Link tO mY nEw BlOg
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Anyone watching the Republican debate? I'm watching the live feed through the BBC (probably a nice left bias being shown). I must admit, most republicans make no sense at all. Ron Paul seems to make the most sense of them all, but he is more of an independent than an actual conservative.

I'm sorry, but if I weren't ideologically opposed to the republicans, and I didn't support the democrats at all (or if I was old enough to vote and even lived in the US), I would go independent next year. The republicans don't seem to care about anyone but the people who financially support them this year..they don't even show any interest in anything but (incorrect) foreign politics and Obama bashing. I mean really!? The terrorists are attacking the US because the US is free, not because you guys stopped funding them...? *sigh*

I kinda wish that the US wasn't the heart of the world so this stupidity wouldn't actually matter to anyone outside of the US. I really hope that someone who can actually run a country is able to get a majority in the US government next year.

Sorry if I offended someone, but really, from a foreigner looking in, it's pretty sad, especially when I compare our conservatives to yours. Thankfully Sarah Palin isn't in it this year. XD
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did you guys no that TS LEE did the same thing TS Allison did in 2001 and be came a STS at some point of its life



so the next ? is will TS LEE get its name retired
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Aren't you supposed to be in bed?



LOL
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Quoting Grothar:


Who woke you up?

Aren't you supposed to be in bed?
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Quoting presslord:


feelin' pretty old myself....I think my daughter has found The One...and I'm dealing with not being the most important man in her life anymore...

Console yourself that she's female:
Have a girl and she's a daughter for life; a son is yours until he takes a wife.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

In my opinion.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

in my opinion.

imho= in my humble opinion.


thanks guys :D cant learn if i dont ask, lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

In my opinion.


Who woke you up?
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Quoting Grothar:


Old, press. How you doing? Been watching the weather in Europe. Very strange, indeed. We never got storms like these very often. Some in the North Sea could be bad, but these are very odd and getting more powerful.


feelin' pretty old myself....I think my daughter has found The One...and I'm dealing with not being the most important man in her life anymore...
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Quoting SPLbeater:


another thing i havnt learned from the wunder family; what does IMO stand for?


I think it means I M Old.
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Quoting presslord:


I stand corrected, sir! How the heck is ya?!?!


Old, press. How you doing? Been watching the weather in Europe. Very strange, indeed. We never got storms like these very often. Some in the North Sea could be bad, but these are very odd and getting more powerful.
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Quoting SPLbeater:


another thing i havnt learned from the wunder family; what does IMO stand for?

in my opinion.

imho= in my humble opinion.
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Quoting SPLbeater:


another thing i havnt learned from the wunder family; what does IMO stand for?

In my opinion.
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Quoting Grothar:


That would be "eldest" to you!


I stand corrected, sir! How the heck is ya?!?!
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
True.
It was Grothar who first coined the term "blog".
Before that, it was known as "Og", and made half the folks turn around when you mentioned it.


Yes, and I also coined the term 'Twit'.
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:

Old members are very fine, imo.


another thing i havnt learned from the wunder family; what does IMO stand for?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting presslord:


you mean..."by far the oldest member"

Old members are very fine, imo.
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Quoting presslord:


you mean..."by far the oldest member"


That would be "eldest" to you!
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Quoting Grothar:



OLDER??? and you expect a plus for that?????
did you take your pills yet today old man?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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