CSU and TSR predict above average 2012 Atlantic hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:17 PM GMT on December 07, 2011

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Above-average Atlantic hurricane activity is likely for 2012, but there is a 40% chance of an El Niño event that will keep hurricane activity below average, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued today by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). For the first time in twenty years, the CSU team is not issuing a December forecast with a specific number of tropical storms and hurricanes. Instead, they have issued a more qualitative forecast, which I think is a great idea, since their quantitative December forecasts have shown no skill. Their outlook for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season:

15% chance: Very active season with 14-17 named storms, 9-11 hurricanes, 4-5 major hurricanes
45% chance: Active season with 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-4 major hurricanes
30% chance: Inactive season with 8-11 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes
10% chance: Very inactive season with 5-7 named storms, 2-3 hurricanes, 0-1 major hurricanes

An average season has 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The main reason that CSU's December forecasts have shown no skill is because we have no skill predicting El Niño events nine months or more into the future. When an El Niño event occurs, bringing much above average wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, hurricane activity is substantially reduced. Making successful seasonal hurricane forecasts requires that one make a successful El Niño forecast.


Figure 1. Forecasts of El Niño conditions by 20 computer models, made in November 2011. The longest range forecasts for July-August-September (JAS) at the right side of the image show that 3 models predict weak El Niño conditions, 8 predict neutral conditions, and 1 predicts a weak La Niña. El Niño conditions are defined as occurring when sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America (the "Niño 3.4 region) rise to 0.5°C above average (top red line). La Niña conditions occur when SSTs in this region fall to 0.5°C below average (blue line.) Image credit: Columbia University.

What will El Niño do in 2012?
We currently have a borderline weak to moderate La Niña episode in the Eastern Pacific, characterized by cooler than average waters off the equatorial coast of South America. While we can say with good confidence that La Niña will continue through the winter and into spring, it is highly uncertain what might happen next summer and fall to La Niña. In April and May, we typically see La Niña fade to neutral, and in many cases, a full-blown El Niño will develop by the fall. As the CSU team notes, there have been fourteen years since 1950 which had La Niña conditions that were similar to what we are experiencing this December. During the following years' hurricane season, an El Niño event developed 36% of the time, in those fourteen years. In 2012, the odds of a fall El Niño may be higher than this, since we have gone three years since the last El Niño, and these events typically occur every 3 - 7 years. Of the 12 El Niño/La Niña computer models that made November predictions for the July-August-September 2012 portion of hurricane season (Figure 1), only 3 (20%) predicted that El Niño would arrive. However, these models have no skill predicting El Niño so far in advance.

2012 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR), issued their 2012 Atlantic hurricane season forecast today. TSR is calling for an above-average year, with 14.1 named storms, 6.7 hurricanes, and 3.3 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 49% chance of an above-average hurricane season, 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 21% chance of a below normal season. TSR bases their December forecast on predictions that sea surface temperatures next fall in the tropical Atlantic will be above about 0.1°C above average, and trade wind speeds will be about 0.2 m/s slower than average. The trade wind speed prediction is based on a forecast for neutral El Niño conditions in August - September 2012.

I like how TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 3% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 0% skill for hurricanes, and 7% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much skill, and really, we have to wait until the June 1 forecasts by CSU, NOAA, and TSR to get a forecast with reasonable skill.


Figure 2. Forecast skill of the TSR, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and CSU (Colorado State University) seasonal hurricane outlooks 2002-2011 as a function of lead time. NOAA does not release seasonal outlooks before late May. It is clear there is little skill in forecasting the upcoming number of Atlantic hurricanes from the prior December. Skill climbs slowly as the hurricane season approaches. Moderate skill levels are reached by early June and good skill levels are achieved from early August. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc (TSR).

Jeff Masters

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308. RitaEvac
6:52 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting spbloom:
Re possible AGW causation of this storm:

Hard to know absent careful analysis, but just to note that this is the sort of thing we should expect more of since the entire ocean-atmosphere circulation is shifting. But no worries, right?


No worries Nea Jr
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
307. SPLbeater
6:23 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting calder:


You are perfectly entitled to your beliefs, but shouldn't this blog be about science? I would never try to impart my beliefs on anyone else, why should you?


i like weather just as any1 else. i just dont want to see anybody here be rejected from Christ, because i like everybody here. so asa servant of the Lord Jesus Christ i try at some times when somebody says a certain thing that i must involve the Lord to get the truth, i plant the seed. wether you let it grow or not is your decision, and God works there
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
306. taistelutipu
6:22 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Do you mean the record since records began or the record for this event in particular?

165 mph is the record for this event and 173 mph is the official record dating from 20 March 1986 in the same location, Cairngorm. There is an unofficial record of 177 mph from the Shetland islands recorded in 1962.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 640
304. petewxwatcher
6:16 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting calder:
165mph gust on cairngorm in the scottish highlands


What's the record wind gust in Scotland?
Member Since: March 24, 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 392
303. taistelutipu
6:03 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Some turbines of a wind farm burst into flames due to the winds (image 13 of 13). Scotland winter storm in pictures.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 640
302. calder
5:58 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting SPLbeater:


pfft. yeah, i did. you know why? because if i didnt, i would be leaving out the truth behind why we dont need to be goin crazy of a few small changes, and if i left him out i would be missiing part of the puzzle.



You are perfectly entitled to your beliefs, but shouldn't this blog be about science? I would never try to impart my beliefs on anyone else, why should you?
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 419
301. taistelutipu
5:55 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Thanks, FlyingScotsman. I'm watching the recorded item.

From the live text:
Information

Scotland's storm winds in numbers....

* Strongest gust - Cairngorm hit 165 mph (UK record 173 mph)
* Strongest low level gust - Tiree hit 91 mph
* Central belt - up to 80mph
* Homes without power - 12,000
* Schools which did not open at all or closed in the afternoon - about 70% of the 2,800 total
* Major bridges closed - Tay, Forth and Erskine. The others are open but have vehicle restrictions
* Weather incidents dealt with by Strathclyde Police - 450

and fortunately also:
1705:
Miss Sturgeon points out there have been no reported serious injuries or deaths related to the weather.

They also said that it has been the strongest storm since 1988.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 640
300. SPLbeater
5:48 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting spbloom:


Why lie? You're the one who brought up religion, right out of the blue, in your comment 31.

Seems like troll behavior to me.



pfft. yeah, i did. you know why? because if i didnt, i would be leaving out the truth behind why we dont need to be goin crazy of a few small changes, and if i left him out i would be missiing part of the puzzle.

Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
299. spbloom
5:47 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Re possible AGW causation of this storm:

Hard to know absent careful analysis, but just to note that this is the sort of thing we should expect more of since the entire ocean-atmosphere circulation is shifting. But no worries, right?
Member Since: May 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
298. spbloom
5:43 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
The "frankfish" etc. puppeteer likes to brag about the sockpuppetry, e.g. here (not that this by itself proves anything about SPLbeater).
Member Since: May 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
297. FlyingScotsman
5:41 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting taistelutipu:


Wow, that's incredible. Where did you find that? Cairngorm is not listed on the ukmet site. I think I have to go googling it...


BBC has a live stream here that reported it a couple hours ago.
Member Since: September 1, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 218
296. taistelutipu
5:40 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
yes, found it. New data uploaded every six hours. current observation is 111 mph with 127 mph gusts.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 640
295. spbloom
5:40 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting SPLbeater:


only time i ever bring up my relationship with Jesus Christ is when i must take a stand. i would rather talk tropics 24/7 lol, thats the truth:)


Everybody who talked trash to me last night i forgive you


Why lie? You're the one who brought up religion, right out of the blue, in your comment 31.

Seems like troll behavior to me.

Member Since: May 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
294. SPLbeater
5:32 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
somebody tell me the location of this storm? wasnt here earlier, was snoozing lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
293. taistelutipu
5:31 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting calder:


165mph gust on cairngorm!


Wow, that's incredible. Where did you find that? Cairngorm is not listed on the ukmet site. I think I have to go googling it...
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 640
292. taistelutipu
5:27 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting FlyingScotsman:
Just got down from Arthur's Seat in Edinburgh--measured 76 mph sustained and 109 mph gust on my handheld anemometer.
Never felt anything like that before, and not sure I want to again...


I'm glad you made it back alive and in one piece! That's like walking outside in a cat 1 hurricane. When I walked to uni earlier, I saw slate tiles and rain drain pipes blown down from the roofs. Heads up!
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 640
291. SPLbeater
5:27 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting taistelutipu:
OMG, the blog's crazy today.

First of all R.I.P. Bordonaro. Your posts were much appreciated, you'll be missed.

Second, ugh, religion on a science blog. These two should be kept apart at all times as nothing good can come of it if they mix. just my two cents on that: I do believe in god but I don't believe that he/she is going to make all the greenhouse gases magically disappear or the nuclear waste from the Fukushima power plant or any other pollution caused by humans for that matter. Humans have been given the free will to act as they see it fit and no god is going to interfere with that. It's time to take responsibility for our actions, not playing the fatalistic card 'God will save us from this, we don't have to do anything' and sticking our head in the sand like an ostrich now that we see the first consequences of our actions. So to those who say god has a plan for everything I say 'wake up and be responsible adults!'

Third, Scotland is really getting a beating. 77 mph sustained (10 min) and 114 mph gusts, ouch! And, as it seems, the station has been damaged, since there is no data for 1600, after two hours of those winds it's no longer reporting. Here in Wales we've gotten away with 48 mph sustained and 72 mph gusts in the mountains and 60 mph / 79 mph on the coast.

Here's the detailed surface analysis, someone requested that earlier. The low is now deeper as forecast yesterday, 960 mb.


only time i ever bring up my relationship with Jesus Christ is when i must take a stand. i would rather talk tropics 24/7 lol, thats the truth:)


Everybody who talked trash to me last night i forgive you
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
290. calder
5:26 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting FlyingScotsman:
Just got down from Arthur's Seat in Edinburgh--measured 76 mph sustained and 109 mph gust on my handheld anemometer.
Never felt anything like that before, and not sure I want to again...


I'm in edinburgh too, pretty nuts for the east coast!
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 419
289. calder
5:25 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:


Kelvin Wave


yeh same thing
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 419
288. calder
5:24 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting taistelutipu:
OMG, the blog's crazy today.

First of all R.I.P. Bordonaro. Your posts were much appreciated, you'll be missed.

Second, ugh, religion on a science blog. These two should be kept apart at all times as nothing good can come of it if they mix. just my two cents on that: I do believe in god but I don't believe that he/she is going to make all the greenhouse gases magically disappear or the nuclear waste from the Fukushima power plant or any other pollution caused by humans for that matter. Humans have been given the free will to act as they see it fit and no god is going to interfere with that. It's time to take responsibility for our actions, not playing the fatalistic card 'God will save us from this, we don't have to do anything' and sticking our head in the sand like an ostrich now that we see the first consequences of our actions. So to those who say god has a plan for everything I say 'wake up and be responsible adults!'

Third, Scotland is really getting a beating. 77 mph sustained (10 min) and 114 mph gusts, ouch! And, as it seems, the station has been damaged, since there is no data for 1600, after two hours of those winds it's no longer reporting. Here in Wales we've gotten away with 48 mph sustained and 72 mph gusts in the mountains and 60 mph / 79 mph on the coast.

Here's the detailed surface analysis, someone requested that earlier. The low is now deeper as forecast yesterday, 960 mb.


165mph gust on cairngorm!
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 419
287. spbloom
5:23 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
FYI, although this is really just (re)stating the obvious, frankfish and a few others who have appeared above are sockpuppets of an individual who also infests the climate blog (and just had a handle banned a couple of days ago for spouting obscenities while apparently drunk). A sad, lonely old man as best I can tell.

I'm not quite sure about SPLbeater, who at least has a join date a few months old, but the business about completely trusting in the Big Sky Fairy even while learning how to forecast weather based on data seems a little too cognitively dissonant, as SkyePony pointed out. OTOH we're all a little cognitively dissonant.

IMHO the best way of dealing with this is to make reference to religion ban-worthy (beyond casual references like "May the Cosmic Muffin open the door of the Big Oven and take into Her/His pan the victims of the typhoon").

Being an Admin here is a thankless task, that's for sure.
Member Since: May 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
286. spbloom
5:22 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:


That's correct, were trying, but long ways to go. And some things aren't meant to be understood and that is a fact that man must understand.


That's why wee need more female scientists.

RitaEvac, possibly you should stop confusing your own lack of comprehension with the way the world works.
Member Since: May 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
285. FlyingScotsman
5:19 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Just got down from Arthur's Seat in Edinburgh--measured 76 mph sustained and 109 mph gust on my handheld anemometer.
Never felt anything like that before, and not sure I want to again...
Member Since: September 1, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 218
284. Patrap
5:18 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Time Lapse of gravity wave action from the Tama, Iowa KCCI-TV webcam on 6 May 2007.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
283. RitaEvac
5:15 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting calder:


probably Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds from dynamic instability


Kelvin Wave
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
282. calder
5:14 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:


Not sure, someone on here probably knows though.
Shock waves in the atmosphere


probably Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds from dynamic instability
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 419
281. taistelutipu
5:13 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
OMG, the blog's crazy today.

First of all R.I.P. Bordonaro. Your posts were much appreciated, you'll be missed.

Second, ugh, religion on a science blog. These two should be kept apart at all times as nothing good can come of it if they mix. just my two cents on that: I do believe in god but I don't believe that he/she is going to make all the greenhouse gases magically disappear or the nuclear waste from the Fukushima power plant or any other pollution caused by humans for that matter. Humans have been given the free will to act as they see it fit and no god is going to interfere with that. It's time to take responsibility for our actions, not playing the fatalistic card 'God will save us from this, we don't have to do anything' and sticking our head in the sand like an ostrich now that we see the first consequences of our actions. So to those who say god has a plan for everything I say 'wake up and be responsible adults!'

Third, Scotland is really getting a beating. 77 mph sustained (10 min) and 114 mph gusts, ouch! And, as it seems, the station has been damaged, since there is no data for 1600, after two hours of those winds it's no longer reporting. Here in Wales we've gotten away with 48 mph sustained and 72 mph gusts in the mountains and 60 mph / 79 mph on the coast.

Here's the detailed surface analysis, someone requested that earlier. The low is now deeper as forecast yesterday, 960 mb.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 640
280. RitaEvac
5:13 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting JNCali:
gotta be HAARP


The UN would claim it as AGW
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
279. JNCali
5:12 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:


Not sure, someone on here probably knows though.
Shock waves in the atmosphere
gotta be HAARP
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
278. RitaEvac
5:03 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting TampaCat5:

Wow, that is really neat. What would cause that, you think?


Not sure, someone on here probably knows though.
Shock waves in the atmosphere
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
277. RitaEvac
5:02 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting Patrap:



Humans fail as a whole, granted.

The Mayan, Sumerian and other Great Civilizations all knew dat.

And Left.

There are now 378 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice

Enjoy your Thursday.


: )


It's either the end of us....or a new era for man....or just a BS Mayan screw up that they got tired of writing out the calendar into the future and just quit
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
276. TampaCat5
5:01 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:
Check out the gravity wave moving from west to east, from Mexico into the Central Gulf on visible loops.

Wow, that is really neat. What would cause that, you think?
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 4 Comments: 445
275. Patrap
5:00 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:


That's correct, were trying, but long ways to go. And some things aren't meant to be understood and that is a fact that man must understand.



Humans fail as a whole, granted.

The Mayan, Sumerian and other Great Civilizations all knew dat.

And Left.

There are now 378 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice

Enjoy your Thursday.


: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
274. TampaCat5
4:58 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:


And some things aren't meant to be understood and that is a fact that man must understand.

Yes, like Quantum Mechanics!
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 4 Comments: 445
273. calder
4:58 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
165mph gust on cairngorm in the scottish highlands
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 419
272. RitaEvac
4:58 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Check out the gravity wave moving from west to east, from Mexico into the Central Gulf on visible loops.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
271. JNCali
4:57 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
when in reality we are clueless and vulnerable to the future


To live in the Dark and not seek to understand what scares one is a choice.

..those who seek and discover walk in the Light of Knowledge.

There is a limit to knowledge, there is a bunch of it out there but it is finite.. 'truth' on the other hand..
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
270. SPLbeater
4:53 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Sad to have 01S weakening. i dont want a quiet basin xD
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
269. RitaEvac
4:52 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
when in reality we are clueless and vulnerable to the future


To live in the Dark and not seek to understand what scares one is a choice.

..those who seek and discover walk in the Light of Knowledge.


That's correct, were trying, but long ways to go. And some things aren't meant to be understood and that is a fact that man must understand.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
268. Patrap
4:51 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
when in reality we are clueless and vulnerable to the future


To live in the Dark and not seek to understand what scares one is a choice.

..those who seek and discover walk in the Light of Knowledge.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
267. RitaEvac
4:47 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting JNCali:
Re: the blog article... "..The main reason that CSU's December forecasts have shown no skill is because we have no skill predicting El Niño events nine months or more into the future.."

Ok so the CSU December forecast has no skill.. due to the fact that there is no reliable science in forecasting El Nino intensity 9 months out.. WHAT THE HELL ARE WE TALKING ABOUT? Quantitative probabilities based on?? Tea leaves?? Caterpillar fur density?? Ant colony behavior?? Seems like a waste of time and resources.. I'd rather they used both to better forecast future El Nino.. now there's a thought! IMO..



It's all about having jobs and keeping that market looking good and looking like society really is in control, when in reality we are clueless and vulnerable to the future
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
266. SPLbeater
4:43 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
i really need to stop falling asleep after waking up
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
265. Pipejazz
4:17 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting KoritheMan:


I also consider myself a hardcore atheist, in the sense that I am firmly established in my convictions. However, I will not definitively claim that there is no god. There is an important difference between believing there is no god, and lacking belief in god. The former is considered strong atheism, and the latter weak atheism. I identify myself with the latter, since we really don't have any proof either way. Now, these terms may seem like meaningless wordplay to you (and to others as well), which is fine, but I've studied theology long enough to know that they have a coherent meaning.

More to the point, science hasn't disproved religion anymore than religion has debased or falsified science's claims. It is true that scientific claims are pretty much inherently better than religious claims simply because of the way the scientific method works (repeatability, something religion sorely lacks). However, any intellectually honest person would freely admit that we lack proof in the direction of god(s), both for and against. The way I see it, there's no real proof for god(s), but there's also no proof against it, either. I merely disbelieve because of a lack of reason to believe (I need evidence). Also, it's important to remember that, although the best religion has to offer is anecdotal evidence, something that doesn't hold up very well as evidence to others, that's all the person experiencing it needs. Actually, that's one of the main reasons I am an atheist. Were I to actually experience something I genuinely deemed to be supernatural in nature, chances are I would believe, provided all other naturalistic explanations were fairly and objectively evaluated and fell short of a satisfactory answer.

Also, if I may, why are you an antitheist? I consider myself anti-Christianity and anti-Islam, because I feel they do more harm than good to a society, but I would be a fool to assert the same of all religions. Buddhism, for example, is one of the more peaceful religions. It's not fair to lump in all religion with monotheistic, or Abrahamic ones.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 182
264. WxGeekVA
4:16 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin:
LOOKS like a VERY LARGE NOR-Easter for the EAst coast next WEEK....LOOKS LiKE a Double Banger LOw forms up the East Coast.....Have fun!


When? I thought the next storm wouldn't be until next Friday?
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
263. RitaEvac
4:12 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Long range GFS showing Arctic outbreak round Christmas, coming down the plains. Bordonaro would of been watching for this...
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
262. JNCali
4:10 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Re: the blog article... "..The main reason that CSU's December forecasts have shown no skill is because we have no skill predicting El Niño events nine months or more into the future.."

Ok so the CSU December forecast has no skill.. due to the fact that there is no reliable science in forecasting El Nino intensity 9 months out.. WHAT THE HELL ARE WE TALKING ABOUT? Quantitative probabilities based on?? Tea leaves?? Caterpillar fur density?? Ant colony behavior?? Seems like a waste of time and resources.. I'd rather they used both to better forecast future El Nino.. now there's a thought! IMO..

Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
261. Patrap
4:10 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
260. bappit
3:33 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting biff4ugo:
I see now that the last graph has time all backwards.
I'm used to Time running from left (recent or past) to right (next or future). That it probably just a cultural thing I picked up from books in English and museum displays.

Actually time is increasing to the right on that graph. It is how far we have to go to get back to the future. But I agree it is confusing, I think because we are so used to looking at calendars.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6093
259. RitaEvac
3:12 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I will miss Bordonaro's post. May he RIP. I remember a couple of years ago when he was on the ground making a snow angel after Dallas got 6' to 8" of snow. I believe that was back Jan. 2009. RIP my friend!


Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
258. Minnemike
3:05 PM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin:
YOU all should Know and understand that 90% of the Bloggers that blog regular on this Site are VERY LIBERAL LEFT WINGERS that adhere to those Very Liberal Left Wing Views....ITS OK THO....BLOG ON! Gotta run.....HARE A GREAT DAY and Merry CHRISTMAS
yes, let's share this space... but perhaps insinuations can 'follow' statements, and not 'precede' in the absence of evidential commentary... this goes out to your constituency Tampa, but not explicitly to you. we may differ so greatly, but there's a reason i still see your posts, despite those differences!
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.