CSU and TSR predict above average 2012 Atlantic hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:17 PM GMT on December 07, 2011

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Above-average Atlantic hurricane activity is likely for 2012, but there is a 40% chance of an El Niño event that will keep hurricane activity below average, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued today by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). For the first time in twenty years, the CSU team is not issuing a December forecast with a specific number of tropical storms and hurricanes. Instead, they have issued a more qualitative forecast, which I think is a great idea, since their quantitative December forecasts have shown no skill. Their outlook for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season:

15% chance: Very active season with 14-17 named storms, 9-11 hurricanes, 4-5 major hurricanes
45% chance: Active season with 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-4 major hurricanes
30% chance: Inactive season with 8-11 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes
10% chance: Very inactive season with 5-7 named storms, 2-3 hurricanes, 0-1 major hurricanes

An average season has 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The main reason that CSU's December forecasts have shown no skill is because we have no skill predicting El Niño events nine months or more into the future. When an El Niño event occurs, bringing much above average wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, hurricane activity is substantially reduced. Making successful seasonal hurricane forecasts requires that one make a successful El Niño forecast.


Figure 1. Forecasts of El Niño conditions by 20 computer models, made in November 2011. The longest range forecasts for July-August-September (JAS) at the right side of the image show that 3 models predict weak El Niño conditions, 8 predict neutral conditions, and 1 predicts a weak La Niña. El Niño conditions are defined as occurring when sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America (the "Niño 3.4 region) rise to 0.5°C above average (top red line). La Niña conditions occur when SSTs in this region fall to 0.5°C below average (blue line.) Image credit: Columbia University.

What will El Niño do in 2012?
We currently have a borderline weak to moderate La Niña episode in the Eastern Pacific, characterized by cooler than average waters off the equatorial coast of South America. While we can say with good confidence that La Niña will continue through the winter and into spring, it is highly uncertain what might happen next summer and fall to La Niña. In April and May, we typically see La Niña fade to neutral, and in many cases, a full-blown El Niño will develop by the fall. As the CSU team notes, there have been fourteen years since 1950 which had La Niña conditions that were similar to what we are experiencing this December. During the following years' hurricane season, an El Niño event developed 36% of the time, in those fourteen years. In 2012, the odds of a fall El Niño may be higher than this, since we have gone three years since the last El Niño, and these events typically occur every 3 - 7 years. Of the 12 El Niño/La Niña computer models that made November predictions for the July-August-September 2012 portion of hurricane season (Figure 1), only 3 (20%) predicted that El Niño would arrive. However, these models have no skill predicting El Niño so far in advance.

2012 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR), issued their 2012 Atlantic hurricane season forecast today. TSR is calling for an above-average year, with 14.1 named storms, 6.7 hurricanes, and 3.3 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 49% chance of an above-average hurricane season, 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 21% chance of a below normal season. TSR bases their December forecast on predictions that sea surface temperatures next fall in the tropical Atlantic will be above about 0.1°C above average, and trade wind speeds will be about 0.2 m/s slower than average. The trade wind speed prediction is based on a forecast for neutral El Niño conditions in August - September 2012.

I like how TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 3% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 0% skill for hurricanes, and 7% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much skill, and really, we have to wait until the June 1 forecasts by CSU, NOAA, and TSR to get a forecast with reasonable skill.


Figure 2. Forecast skill of the TSR, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and CSU (Colorado State University) seasonal hurricane outlooks 2002-2011 as a function of lead time. NOAA does not release seasonal outlooks before late May. It is clear there is little skill in forecasting the upcoming number of Atlantic hurricanes from the prior December. Skill climbs slowly as the hurricane season approaches. Moderate skill levels are reached by early June and good skill levels are achieved from early August. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc (TSR).

Jeff Masters

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158. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:49 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting caneswatch:


I think it's time for you to go to a different site, bub. This is not a site for religion, yet you constantly talk about it.

What's up Conner?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31558
157. SPLbeater
2:49 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting caneswatch:


I think it's time for you to go to a different site, bub. This is not a site for religion, yet you constantly talk about it.


as long as the Lord doesnt tell em to leave here i stay. i love weather, i look to be a meteorologist. i bring up Christianity, and Christ because its only the right thing to do. in this day in time, worship isnt standard like it was when the founding fathers were around.

Just because sin is legalized, doesnt make it right.

and i would love to talk about the tropics, but i will not just let false things concerning the opposite of bible teaching slide. :)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
156. yqt1001
2:47 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting ysfabian:
thanks for sharing.I like it.slewing ring


Haha! I love it when I trigger spambots.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
154. KoritheMan
2:43 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting caneswatch:


I think it's time for you to go to a different site, bub. This is not a site for religion, yet you constantly talk about it.


Good evening, Conner. How are you?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20023
153. yqt1001
2:43 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Sorry for straying off topic here, but I have something to say.

I go to a catholic school. I am confirmed into the french version of christianity. I am an antitheist (a fancy term for having an opposition to religion).

In my religion class (I pick this class because I've known the kids in it for many years), only 3 of them go to church once a month. I doubt any of them go once a week. Most of the kids there don't care about religion, and some of us are hardcore atheists (5-6 I would say).

Religion is a dying fad. It made sense before science disproved it. Really, go back to the 1700s when religion was the most popular. History only went back to Egypt, so anything that could make sense of the pre-human history was accepted. Today, we know more about the history before humans, so we have enough evidence to prove either way that God does and doesn't exist. Atheism, especially here in Canada, is a growing fad. Even in my school, atheists are considered cooler than the religious freaks that devote their lives to the church.

Why I am antitheist? Religion has killed hundreds of millions of innocent people. Religion is a large portion of wars and genocides. Yes, there have been modern conflicts on other things, but religion is the backbone of most wars and slaughterings of people.

Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
152. caneswatch
2:40 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting SPLbeater:


i will stand for the Lord always, as Christ himself said that Christians will be hated for their faith in him.

Side note, Christianity is not a religion. it is a relationship with Jesus Christ as our personal saviour.


I think it's time for you to go to a different site, bub. This is not a site for religion, yet you constantly talk about it.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
151. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:33 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Quoting SPLbeater:


im sorry but anything other then a relationship with Jesus Christ is wrong. im praying for you to

I didn't say I didn't have one, but I'm not going to say I have one either.

I don't really have a religion.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31558
Quoting KoritheMan:


I was referring to the SSHS.


Although it looks like a Category 2 (SSHS) to me.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20023
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Maybe on the Australian scale, but not the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale one. ;)

Alenga is currently a Category 3 on the Australian scale, but only a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.


I was referring to the SSHS.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20023
Quoting pottery:

Polyurethane ones, even more so.

There have been some Unbelievable comments here today.
Just thought I'd add another....


It's been like this for a few days now.

But I like your comment. :)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20023
Quoting KoritheMan:


I doubt Alenga is a Category 4. Just my opinion, of course. :)

Maybe on the Australian scale, but not the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale one. ;)

Alenga is currently a Category 3 on the Australian scale, but only a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31558
Quoting KoritheMan:


I always thought polytheistic religions were more interesting, anyway.

Polyurethane ones, even more so.

There have been some Unbelievable comments here today.
Just thought I'd add another....
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
Did anyone notice that the CSU doesn't predict that there will be 6 hurricanes it completely skips that number even though it's the seasonal average
also it looks like Alenga is a cat 4 now


I doubt Alenga is a Category 4. Just my opinion, of course. :)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20023
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Did anyone notice that the CSU doesn't predict that there will be 6 hurricanes it completely skips that number even though it's the seasonal average
also it looks like Alenga is a cat 4 now

Because their December forecasts showed little skills, they decided to take a more "professional" approach and not release actual numbers, but instead, the major factors that will go into the 2012 AHS.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31558
Quoting Tazmanian:
is that a nor Ester moveing up the E coast right now?


inland low...
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Did anyone notice that the CSU doesn't predict that there will be 6 hurricanes it completely skips that number even though it's the seasonal average
also it looks like Alenga is a cat 4 now
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2356
On a weather-related note, I'm almost done with my report on Irwin. I'm up to the part where he becomes a hurricane.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20023
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Christianity is a monotheistic religion.


I always thought polytheistic religions were more interesting, anyway.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20023
Quoting yqt1001:


Hey! I'm not alone! :D


:D
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20023
137. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALENGA (01U)
9:00 AM WST December 8 2011
==============================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Alenga, Category Three (976 hPa) located at 16.2S 94.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 19 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 17.8S 97.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 19.3S 99.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 21.0S 102.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 22.2S 102.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Tropical Cyclone Alenga was located by microwave and infra-red satellite imagery over the past 6 hours. DT has averaged 5.0 over the last 3 images based on an EIR pattern. MET is consistently 4.0 [based on D trend] and PAT 4.5. FT and CI set to 4.5. This is generally consistent with ADT though ADT has an increasing trend towards 5.0 in recent images. No AMSU/SATCON available since 1400 Z. No recent ascat pass. Vmax is set at 70 knots 10-min.

Recent microwave imagery shows development of the system around a reasonably well defined eye.

The system has been in a low shear environment and CIMSS shear at 0000 UTC was about 8 knots from the westnorthwest. Shear is forecast to increase in the next 24 to 48 hours as an upper low and trough approach from the west.

NWP guidance is quite consistent with general southeast motion likely over the next 48 hours due to the upper trough. In the longer term the weakening system may be steered towards the west southwest by a developing ridge well to the south. Gales may persist to the south of the system in the tight easterly pressure gradient.

Alenga is now near its maximum forecast intensity and should begin to weaken beyond the next 12 hours as the system moves southeast into a high shear environment with cooler SST's. The mid-level trough has also brought dry air in close proximity which may also weaken the system if it is entrained into the core.
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Quoting SPLbeater:


i will stand for the Lord always, as Christ himself said that Christians will be hated for their faith in him.

Side note, Christianity is not a religion. it is a relationship with Jesus Christ as our personal saviour.

Christianity is a monotheistic religion.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31558
Quoting KoritheMan:

Oh please. Try being a bisexual atheist, and THEN come talk to me about persecution.

You Christians have it easy. Always have.


Hey! I'm not alone! :D
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
Quoting Ameister12:

Low-end Category 3/Solid Category 3 hurricane status.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31558
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Quoting SPLbeater:


 i guess persecution will come daily
Oh please. Try being a bisexual atheist, and THEN come talk to me about persecution.

You Christians have it easy. Always have.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20023
Dvorak Major Cyclone Alenga 080030Z

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 949.8mb/ 107.2kt

Raw T# 4.4
Adj T# 4.9
Final T# 5.5

Scene Type: UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Weakening FLag: ON

Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting Tazmanian:
is that a nor Ester moveing up the E coast right now?



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127673
Quoting TomTaylor:
Why are you praying for me if the lord already has everything planned out?

Hypocrite.

Not gonna even waste anymore time on you. So stubborn and ignorant I might as well be talking to a brick wall. Yet you're a hypocrite too, so that might suggest that you are on a lower level than a brick wall.


intercession prayer is good. as it is better to give then to receive. God has everything planned, yes. but that does not mean i will sit back and do nothing. i am a faithful Christian and servant to the Lord, and i will do everything in my power to bring more poeple to Christ.

I will remember you in my prayers Tom.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
is that a nor Ester moveing up the E coast right now?
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Saturday's Lunar Eclipse Will Include 'Impossible' Sight
by Joe Rao, SPACE.com Skywatching Columnist
Date: 07 December 2011 Time: 03:21 PM ET


For most places in the United States and Canada, there will be a chance to observe an unusual effect, one that celestial geometry seems to dictate can't happen. The little-used name for this effect is a "selenelion" (or "selenehelion") and occurs when both the sun and the eclipsed moon can be seen at the same time

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127673
Quoting SPLbeater:


thanks for quoting this, was at church studying Christ. i guess persecution will come daily, but considering the fact that i would stand for the Lord till death, and even after, doesnt bother me. all i can say to you Tom Taylor, is that when i said that; i wasnt joking. God has a plan, and no humanism plan will stop it. what happens each day, God knew it would happen long before it occured. dozens of prophesies have been fulfilled, and more to come. the end isnt far away Tom. bowing now to the Lord now would be the better decision, thenbowing at judgment in humiliation before being cast down to the lake of fire.

Im praying for you
Why are you praying for me if the lord already has everything planned out?

Hypocrite.

Not gonna even waste anymore time on you. So stubborn and ignorant I might as well be talking to a brick wall. Yet you're a hypocrite too, so that might suggest that you are on a lower level than a brick wall.
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Quoting Skyepony:
SPLbeater~ Saw an interesting article today..

A climatologist in West Texas, Katharine Hayhoe, takes on skeptics with scientific data and her own faith as an evangelical Christian..


This was my fav quote of hers..

"People ask me if I believe in global warming. I tell them, 'No, I don't,' because belief is faith; faith is the evidence of things not seen," Hayhoe said. "Science is evidence of things seen. To have an open mind, we have to use the brains that God gave us to look at the science."


the so called 'gloabl warming' i do not beleive in. because, you see, over 50 years, the AVERAGE temeratures for the ENTIRE GLOBE have gon up in AVERAGE half a degree. and yet people call that a rapid warm up. it doesnt sell with me, i said this earlier i will repeat it as nice as possible-

God has a plan. everything that has happened, he said it would and knew it would happen, becuase God has no flaws. he died for our sins on the cross at calvary. then rose again on the third day(designated easter) so that we could have the choice to repent, and go to heaven when we die physically. if we do not accept this free gift, we will perish abd burn in hell eternally. forever. but if we do accept this free gift, we can go to heaven with Jesus Christ, and spend our spiritual lives there forever. eternally.

Jesus says in John 14:2, "In my Father's house are many mansions; if it were not so, i would have told you. I go to prepare a place for you"

Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting SPLbeater:


thanks for quoting this, was at church studying Christ. i guess persecution will come daily, but considering the fact that i would stand for the Lord till death, and even after, doesnt bother me. all i can say to you Tom Taylor, is that when i said that; i wasnt joking. God has a plan, and no humanism plan will stop it. what happens each day, God knew it would happen long before it occured. dozens of prophesies have been fulfilled, and more to come. the end isnt far away Tom. bowing now to the Lord now would be the better decision, thenbowing at judgment in humiliation before being cast down to the lake of fire.

Im praying for you

I worry about how serious you are over your religion sometimes...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31558
Quoting yqt1001:


How ironic.

First visible of Alenga is up:

Probably around 90 kts. (1-min.) right now, which translates to a 105 mph Category 2 hurricane on our Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31558
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Exactly.


thanks for quoting this, was at church studying Christ. i guess persecution will come daily, but considering the fact that i would stand for the Lord till death, and even after, doesnt bother me. all i can say to you Tom Taylor, is that when i said that; i wasnt joking. God has a plan, and no humanism plan will stop it. what happens each day, God knew it would happen long before it occured. dozens of prophesies have been fulfilled, and more to come. the end isnt far away Tom. bowing now to the Lord now would be the better decision, thenbowing at judgment in humiliation before being cast down to the lake of fire.

Im praying for you
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting Skyepony:
SPLbeater~ Saw an interesting article today..

A climatologist in West Texas, Katharine Hayhoe, takes on skeptics with scientific data and her own faith as an evangelical Christian..


This was my fav quote of hers..

"People ask me if I believe in global warming. I tell them, 'No, I don't,' because belief is faith; faith is the evidence of things not seen," Hayhoe said. "Science is evidence of things seen. To have an open mind, we have to use the brains that God gave us to look at the science."
like the way she put that. Faith is the belief in the unseen, and science is the evidence and understanding of what has been seen...
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Quoting Patrap:
Mayan's,,..



Mysterious planet-sized object spotted near mercury





Death Star has now entered the Earth system,

In range - 379 days.

Approx ~ Dec. 21st, 2012.
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117. DDR
According to the models its just getting started,not good.
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116. DDR
I can see some more flooding and more landslips for T&T,this wet pattern looks very persistent,1.2inches here today.
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Quoting Skyepony:
"People ask me if I believe in global warming. I tell them, 'No, I don't,' because belief is faith; faith is the evidence of things not seen," Hayhoe said. "Science is evidence of things seen. To have an open mind, we have to use the brains that God gave us to look at the science."


How ironic.

First visible of Alenga is up:
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
114. Skyepony (Mod)
As of late yesterday GOES-15 replaced GOES-11 as the operational GOES-West satellite. Important differences that users of the new GOES-15 imagery should be aware of:

1. Improved water vapor channel (Imager channel 3)
2. Slightly different visible channel (Imager chanel 1)
3. 13.3 µm IR (Imager channel 6) replaces the 12.0 µm IR (Imager channel 5)
4. Improved Image Navigation and Registration (INR)
5. Shorter image outages during Spring and Fall season “eclipse periods”
6. Less noise on many of the Sounder channels


Quoting Patrap:
Mayan's,,..



Mysterious planet-sized object spotted near mercury





So looks like the Starship Enterprise..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37452
113. Skyepony (Mod)
SPLbeater~ Saw an interesting article today..

A climatologist in West Texas, Katharine Hayhoe, takes on skeptics with scientific data and her own faith as an evangelical Christian..


This was my fav quote of hers..

"People ask me if I believe in global warming. I tell them, 'No, I don't,' because belief is faith; faith is the evidence of things not seen," Hayhoe said. "Science is evidence of things seen. To have an open mind, we have to use the brains that God gave us to look at the science."
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37452
Quoting Grothar:
I can't believe it is snowing here!


Grothar, did you get locked in the walk-in cooler again?
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
The rain for TX went POOF while FL appears to be the one that gets the overrunning rains.



I think there waaay overdoing it lol.;)

The southeast ridge is steadily weakening as I speak. Plus another shortwave trough is expected this weekend which I believe should correspond by developing a low in the southeast Bahama's and move it NE-wards.

If anything, the Keys might get some good rains on Friday(because of a stalled-out front near them in the Straights) with an isolated shower chance for Miami. Otherwise I expect Central Florida to have lovely weather Friday-Wednesday with temps in the 70's and dewpoints around 50.

I predict blocking will start to form around the 20th-23d of this month! I think that's when the East will see it's big pattern change! If so, then 1996 and perhaps 1989 are good anologs on a warm beginning of December followed by a brutal chill by the Winter Solstice/Christmas!

Now as for Tomorrow morning, I expect dewpoints in Orlando to drop to the low 30's(I wouldn't even doubt to see a few 20's before the wind shift). I love those kind of dewpoints! They feel great!:)
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Mayan's,,..



Mysterious planet-sized object spotted near mercury



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127673
Quoting TomTaylor:
I won't criticize you, but I will laugh at you.

"Yeah lets just jump off this cliff because God has a plan and we don't have to be worried about a thing."

Brilliant. I guess I am criticizing you now, but saying we don't have to worry about anything because God has it all planned out is quite literally ridiculous.

Exactly.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31558
Quoting weatherbro:


But Boston's a different story lol.


do what?

boston is getting lots of nice cold rain...lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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