CSU and TSR predict above average 2012 Atlantic hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:17 PM GMT on December 07, 2011

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Above-average Atlantic hurricane activity is likely for 2012, but there is a 40% chance of an El Niño event that will keep hurricane activity below average, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued today by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). For the first time in twenty years, the CSU team is not issuing a December forecast with a specific number of tropical storms and hurricanes. Instead, they have issued a more qualitative forecast, which I think is a great idea, since their quantitative December forecasts have shown no skill. Their outlook for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season:

15% chance: Very active season with 14-17 named storms, 9-11 hurricanes, 4-5 major hurricanes
45% chance: Active season with 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-4 major hurricanes
30% chance: Inactive season with 8-11 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes
10% chance: Very inactive season with 5-7 named storms, 2-3 hurricanes, 0-1 major hurricanes

An average season has 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The main reason that CSU's December forecasts have shown no skill is because we have no skill predicting El Niño events nine months or more into the future. When an El Niño event occurs, bringing much above average wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, hurricane activity is substantially reduced. Making successful seasonal hurricane forecasts requires that one make a successful El Niño forecast.


Figure 1. Forecasts of El Niño conditions by 20 computer models, made in November 2011. The longest range forecasts for July-August-September (JAS) at the right side of the image show that 3 models predict weak El Niño conditions, 8 predict neutral conditions, and 1 predicts a weak La Niña. El Niño conditions are defined as occurring when sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America (the "Niño 3.4 region) rise to 0.5°C above average (top red line). La Niña conditions occur when SSTs in this region fall to 0.5°C below average (blue line.) Image credit: Columbia University.

What will El Niño do in 2012?
We currently have a borderline weak to moderate La Niña episode in the Eastern Pacific, characterized by cooler than average waters off the equatorial coast of South America. While we can say with good confidence that La Niña will continue through the winter and into spring, it is highly uncertain what might happen next summer and fall to La Niña. In April and May, we typically see La Niña fade to neutral, and in many cases, a full-blown El Niño will develop by the fall. As the CSU team notes, there have been fourteen years since 1950 which had La Niña conditions that were similar to what we are experiencing this December. During the following years' hurricane season, an El Niño event developed 36% of the time, in those fourteen years. In 2012, the odds of a fall El Niño may be higher than this, since we have gone three years since the last El Niño, and these events typically occur every 3 - 7 years. Of the 12 El Niño/La Niña computer models that made November predictions for the July-August-September 2012 portion of hurricane season (Figure 1), only 3 (20%) predicted that El Niño would arrive. However, these models have no skill predicting El Niño so far in advance.

2012 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR), issued their 2012 Atlantic hurricane season forecast today. TSR is calling for an above-average year, with 14.1 named storms, 6.7 hurricanes, and 3.3 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 49% chance of an above-average hurricane season, 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 21% chance of a below normal season. TSR bases their December forecast on predictions that sea surface temperatures next fall in the tropical Atlantic will be above about 0.1°C above average, and trade wind speeds will be about 0.2 m/s slower than average. The trade wind speed prediction is based on a forecast for neutral El Niño conditions in August - September 2012.

I like how TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 3% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 0% skill for hurricanes, and 7% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much skill, and really, we have to wait until the June 1 forecasts by CSU, NOAA, and TSR to get a forecast with reasonable skill.


Figure 2. Forecast skill of the TSR, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and CSU (Colorado State University) seasonal hurricane outlooks 2002-2011 as a function of lead time. NOAA does not release seasonal outlooks before late May. It is clear there is little skill in forecasting the upcoming number of Atlantic hurricanes from the prior December. Skill climbs slowly as the hurricane season approaches. Moderate skill levels are reached by early June and good skill levels are achieved from early August. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc (TSR).

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Skyepony:
SPLbeater~ You aspire to be a meteorologist.. yet the WMO just came out with the statement..

“Our role is to provide the scientific knowledge to inform action by decision makers,” said [World Meteorological Organization] Secretary-General Michel Jarraud. “Our science is solid and it proves unequivocally that the world is warming and that this warming is due to human activities,” he said.

From the article..WMO: 2011 Is Warmest La Niña Year on Record and Science “Proves Unequivocally” It’s “Due to Human Activities”

Nice graph with it. That La Niña we just had was the strongest in 60 years, yet the warmest too..


Interesting you believe this small warming is inconsequential. Saw the NE & NW passage was open this summer? Seen how the permafrost is changing? Seen the new research from Cambridge University an American Naval Postgraduate School, predicts the Arctic to have an ice free moment summer of 2015.. Interesting you use the word believe after quoting the Christian who pointed out to believe is to have faith in something you can't see like the Holy Spirit.. You can go see lots of pictures of ice melting rapidly online, that's science, the sort of thing God gave you a brain to notice & eyes to see. & if you believe we are to do nothing, why did we stop Hitler? Why don't you go take a nap in a road? Where does God helps those that help themselves play in your life?.. & you make Easter sound like such a novel idea..Ever heard of the Goddess Eastre, also spelled Easter, represented by bunnies, eggs & rebirth, big party Vernal Equinox (first day of Spring), ~March 21st? Take a few religion history classes..learn about what used to also be in the books of the New Testament, the parts The Judges removed, parts written by Mathew, Mark , Luke & John leaving what is left of the Bible your thumping..& where in there does it say it's okay to trash your earth cause the end is now? This fatalistic view about AGW is unhealthy, it's not good & not what Jesus would do. Many preachers are encouraging their flock to learn about & accept the science when it comes to AGW. Even the Southern Baptists are on board. No where in the bible does it say Climate change is not man made & people should do nothing about it. Chemistry is not a religion.


another 50 year graph. another 'warming up' of average temeratures. if the average dont go up bout 5 degrees, then you most likely wont feel it and shouldnt be called warming.

God has a plan, all that is/will happen is in his control, not ours.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
205. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting KoritheMan:

To be fair, he needn't accept unequivocally the theory of AGW if he aspires to be a meteorologist. Gray doesn't.


Gonna have a hard time in Chem classes. Probably changed a little since Gray took those. Guess there is sitting in the back snickering. Those ain't easy classes. Couldn't imagine trying to learn it & not "believe" in at the same time.. odds anyone~ he doesn't get kicked out for constantly dragging Jesus into it? & how about getting WMO certified, some met jobs require that..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38155
Quoting Skyepony:
SPLbeater~ You aspire to be a meteorologist.. yet the WMO just came out with the statement..

%u201COur role is to provide the scientific knowledge to inform action by decision makers,%u201D said [World Meteorological Organization] Secretary-General Michel Jarraud. %u201COur science is solid and it proves unequivocally that the world is warming and that this warming is due to human activities,%u201D he said.

From the article..WMO: 2011 Is Warmest La Nia Year on Record and Science %u201CProves Unequivocally%u201D It%u2019s %u201CDue to Human Activities%u201D

Nice graph with it. That La Nia we just had was the strongest in 60 years, yet the warmest too..


Interesting you believe this small warming is inconsequential. Saw the NE & NW passage was open this summer? Seen how the permafrost is changing? Seen the new research from Cambridge University an American Naval Postgraduate School, predicts the Arctic to have an ice free moment summer of 2015.. Interesting you use the word believe after quoting the Christian who pointed out to believe is to have faith in something you can't see like the Holy Spirit.. You can go see lots of pictures of ice melting rapidly online, that's science, the sort of thing God gave you a brain to notice & eyes to see. & if you believe we are to do nothing, why did we stop Hitler? Why don't you go take a nap in a road? Where does God helps those that help themselves play in your life?.. & you make Easter sound like such a novel idea..Ever heard of the Goddess Eastre, also spelled Easter, represented by bunnies, eggs & rebirth, big party Vernal Equinox (first day of Spring), ~March 21st? Take a few religion history classes..learn about what used to also be in the books of the New Testament, the parts The Judges removed, parts written by Mathew, Mark , Luke & John leaving what is left of the Bible your thumping..& where in there does it say it's okay to trash your earth cause the end is now? This fatalistic view about AGW is unhealthy, it's not good & not what Jesus would do. Many preachers are encouraging their flock to learn about & accept the science when it comes to AGW. Even the Southern Baptists are on board. No where in the bible does it say Climate change is not man made & people should do nothing about it. Chemistry is not a religion.
Sky, it's all part of God's plan, don't worry about it. Just follow the lord and everything will be chill.

lool
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting KoritheMan:

To be fair, he needn't accept unequivocally the theory of AGW if he aspires to be a meteorologist. Gray doesn't.
Does Gray not? I haven't really seen him say specifically that he doesn't, I've just seen him try to disprove claims that GW will cause an increased number of storms or stronger storms
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358

Quoting Skyepony:
SPLbeater~ You aspire to be a meteorologist.. yet the WMO just came out with the statement..

“Our role is to provide the scientific knowledge to inform action by decision makers,” said [World Meteorological Organization] Secretary-General Michel Jarraud. “Our science is solid and it proves unequivocally that the world is warming and that this warming is due to human activities,” he said.

To be fair, he needn't accept unequivocally the theory of AGW if he aspires to be a meteorologist. Gray doesn't.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 583 Comments: 20822
201. Skyepony (Mod)
SPLbeater~ You aspire to be a meteorologist.. yet the WMO just came out with the statement..

“Our role is to provide the scientific knowledge to inform action by decision makers,” said [World Meteorological Organization] Secretary-General Michel Jarraud. “Our science is solid and it proves unequivocally that the world is warming and that this warming is due to human activities,” he said.

From the article..WMO: 2011 Is Warmest La Niña Year on Record and Science “Proves Unequivocally” It’s “Due to Human Activities”

Nice graph with it. That La Niña we just had was the strongest in 60 years, yet the warmest too..


Interesting you believe this small warming is inconsequential. Saw the NE & NW passage was open this summer? Seen how the permafrost is changing? Seen the new research from Cambridge University an American Naval Postgraduate School, predicts the Arctic to have an ice free moment summer of 2015.. Interesting you use the word believe after quoting the Christian who pointed out to believe is to have faith in something you can't see like the Holy Spirit.. You can go see lots of pictures of ice melting rapidly online, that's science, the sort of thing God gave you a brain to notice & eyes to see. & if you believe we are to do nothing, why did we stop Hitler? Why don't you go take a nap in a road? Where does God helps those that help themselves play in your life?.. & you make Easter sound like such a novel idea..Ever heard of the Goddess Eastre, also spelled Easter, represented by bunnies, eggs & rebirth, big party Vernal Equinox (first day of Spring), ~March 21st? Take a few religion history classes..learn about what used to also be in the books of the New Testament, the parts The Judges removed, parts written by Mathew, Mark , Luke & John leaving what is left of the Bible your thumping..& where in there does it say it's okay to trash your earth cause the end is now? This fatalistic view about AGW is unhealthy, it's not good & not what Jesus would do. Many preachers are encouraging their flock to learn about & accept the science when it comes to AGW. Even the Southern Baptists are on board. No where in the bible does it say Climate change is not man made & people should do nothing about it. Chemistry is not a religion.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38155
anybody like the movie Sometimes They Come Back by Stephen King?

talk about adreneline pumpin lol...
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
I dunno if anyone is in the mood after hearing of Robert's passing, but I just finished my report on Irwin:


Hurricane Irwin

October 6 - October 17

Irwin was a small but long-lived hurricane that threatened the southwest coast of Mexico before turning away. It also went through many periods of fluctuating between a tropical storm and a tropical depression.

a. Storm history

The genesis of Irwin appears to have been triggered by the southern portion of the tropical wave which spawned Hurricane Philippe in the Atlantic basin. The well-defined wave exited the coast of Africa on September 22, and immediately showed signs of organization. The southern portion of the wave was virtually undetectable on satellite imagery, and its motion is based largely on extrapolation. The wave entered the eastern Pacific on October 2. Although the system produced a widespread area of cloudiness and showers for the next couple of days, little organization was noted, possibly in response to northeasterly shear. Convection began to become better organized early on October 5, and the system is estimated to have spawned a surface low later that day while centered about 900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. The low continued to deepen while moving slowly west-northwestward, and it became a tropical depression around 0600 UTC October 6 while centered about 880 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The depression became a tropical storm about six hours later. Despite close proximity to Hurricane Jova, which was in the process of intensifying several hundred miles to the east, Irwin underwent a brief period of rapid intensification, becoming a hurricane near 0600 UTC October 7 while located about 925 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula.

Irwin continued to strengthen, reaching its peak of 80 kt near 2100 UTC that same day. At this time, the hurricane was centered around 950 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. Irwin's strengthening did not last, however, as Jova soon began to become the dominant circulation, with anticyclonic outflow emanating from that cyclone imparting easterly shear onto Irwin. Since Irwin was initially moving in the direction opposite the shear vector, the slow-moving nature of the tropical cyclone could have exacerbated the detrimental effects of the shear. Irwin weakened to a tropical storm around 1200 UTC October 8. Deep convection essentially disappeared near 0000 UTC October 9, at which time Irwin appears to have weakened to a tropical depression. The rather rapid pace of weakening could have been related to dry air entrainment forcibly injected into the core by the easterly shear, and also the cyclone's relatively small size. Irwin regained tropical storm status near 1200 UTC that day while centered about 835 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

As a large trough amplified over the western United States and combined with the counterclockwise circulation of Hurricane Jova, southwesterly mid-level flow gradually increased over the cyclone, and Irwin turned east, then gradually east-northeast. During this time, Irwin fluctuated in strength, weakening to a tropical depression twice -- the first instance of this was near 0000 UTC October 11. As Irwin was moving east-northeast toward southwest Mexico, a second such weakening took place, with Irwin losing tropical storm status again near 0000 UTC October 13. The cyclone regained tropical storm strength again near 1200 UTC. The center came within about 150 miles of Manzanillo on the southwest coast of Mexico near 1800 UTC that day. This would be the cyclone's closest approach to land. Thereafter, the cyclone turned southward as the trough that recurved Jova to a landfall in southwest Mexico bypassed it. As the ridge rebuild to the north of the tropical cyclone in the wake of the trough, Irwin was caught on the eastern periphery of it, and consequently turned unclimatologically southward.

During this time, Irwin passed over the cold water wake left behind by Jova, and convection nearly disappeared again just before 0000 UTC October 15. This was short-lived, as convection soon refired, and Irwin was able to maintain tropical storm strength until just after 0000 UTC October 16, at which time it weakened to a tropical depression for the final time. During that time, the weakening storm was located about 350 miles southwest of Manzanillo. Irwin continued to weaken as it turned to the south-southwest, and it became a remnant low around 0000 UTC October 17 while centered about 415 miles southwest of Manzanillo.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 583 Comments: 20822
It's so sad to hear of Bordonaro's passing. May he RIP.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
197. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Maybe on the Australian scale, but not the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale one. ;)

Alenga is currently a Category 3 on the Australian scale, but only a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.
WU says Cat 2 SSHS but thats 1 min sustained so its only a Cat 1 80MPH 10 min sustained SSHS, therefore Cat 3 AHS, wow thats confusing, so shes a Cat 1,2,& 3 LOL.
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Quoting Patrap:
So sad, So sudden..

We will miss his wit and posts.

Bordonaro
16 July 1961 - December 2011





So Sorry to hear.
God Bless him.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So sad, So sudden..

We will miss his wit and posts.

Bordonaro
16 July 1961 - December 2011


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Quoting Chicklit:

From Texas?
Where did you hear this?
From What?
His daughter told EmmyRose and she informed us on FB. Sad. I am having a tough time wrapping my mind around this . Such a big hearted man.
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193. xcool
Robert noo wayy .i just talk to him about week ago
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Quoting Patrap:
Yes,,we were informed on his
FB page.

I was just chatting about the cold with Him the other morning.

That sucks big time.
Sorry for his family and of course, sorry for him.
He seemed like a nice person; knowledgeable about the weather, too.
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Yes,,we were informed on his
FB page.

I was just chatting about the cold with Him the other morning.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good night everyone. This is off topic but I am sure you all would like to know that fellow blogger Bordonaro passed away earlier today.

From Texas?
Where did you hear this?
From What?
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Sad to say Kori but it is all too true. Daughter found him this afternoon and thought he was napping.
*sigh*

Now my night is ruined.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 583 Comments: 20822
Quoting KoritheMan:

WTF? No way.
Sad to say Kori but it is all too true. Daughter found him this afternoon and thought he was napping.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good night everyone. This is off topic but I am sure you all would like to know that fellow blogger Bordonaro passed away earlier today.
WTF? No way.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 583 Comments: 20822
I'm off to bed guys, good night.

Play nice, because Santa's watching :P

18 DAYS...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267

Quoting caneswatch:


It's only taken that long to work on it? You're a good writer.
Levi came to my rescue.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 583 Comments: 20822
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Because their December forecasts showed little skills, they decided to take a more "professional" approach and not release actual numbers, but instead, the major factors that will go into the 2012 AHS.

yes but I mean their range doesn't even include 6 hurricanes
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2373
Good night everyone. This is off topic but I am sure you all would like to know that fellow blogger Bordonaro passed away earlier today.
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Quoting caneswatch:


lol. I guess you know this George?

Yeah, we work on Wikipedia together.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Good, except George keeps talking about my face. :(

lol.


lol. I guess you know this George?
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Quoting KoritheMan:

I'm okay. Writing my report on Irwin. Then all that's left is Jova, TD12E, and Kenneth, and I can finally release this accursed blog I've been working on since October to the public.


It's only taken that long to work on it? You're a good writer.
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That Nor'easter is expected to bomb out over Labrador. Will likely shift the polar vortex between Hudson Low and it.

TRACKING THE ARCTIC POLAR VORTEX (GFS runs) - find a centre of rotation for various winter lows that travel around it in counterclockwise fashion; west of the vortex is usually a surface cold spot.
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Quoting SPLbeater:


lol, thats uneccessary xD. im sure TAwx13 is a fine man, just....lost.


Lost? I'm not definitely not lost.

We know each other by the way, so it's all good.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
Quoting 12george1:

Hopefully he will pray that one day you will have a better face.


lol, thats uneccessary xD. im sure TAwx13 is a fine man, just....lost.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
Quoting KoritheMan:


Unless you meant to say that you oppose the idea of organized religion, in which case I agree.


I do mean organized religion, mostly yes. I haven't studied the minor religions enough to have an opinion on those, though. However most of the ones I have studied have a rampant homophobia which is a huge turn off for my opinion on most religions.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
174. patb
So..is it raining or pouring?
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Quoting caneswatch:


Not much Cody, how about you?

Good, except George keeps talking about my face. :(

lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267

Quoting caneswatch:


Good evening, Kori. I'm just relaxing for the night. How about you?
I'm okay. Writing my report on Irwin. Then all that's left is Jova, TD12E, and Kenneth, and I can finally release this accursed blog I've been working on since October to the public.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 583 Comments: 20822
Quoting 12george1:

Hopefully he will pray that one day you will have a better face.

George, really? :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I didn't say I didn't have one, but I'm not going to say I have one either.

I don't really have a religion.

Hopefully he will pray that one day you will have a better face.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What's up Conner?


Not much Cody, how about you?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Good evening, Conner. How are you?


Good evening, Kori. I'm just relaxing for the night. How about you?
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Quoting yqt1001:


I just oppose the idea of religions.
But why? Those atrocities you mentioned were not committed by every world religion. Perhaps instead of saying "religion" (which can give off the valid perception that you are generalizing), you should say Christianity.

Unless you meant to say that you oppose the idea of organized religion, in which case I agree.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 583 Comments: 20822
Religion is a system. Belief is an affirmation. Christianity is a lifestyle.

Truth is the entirety of the bigger picture. We individuals only have small pieces of the larger whole. Even parts that appear mutually exclusive are interconnected.

Life is a gift. Love is an attitude. Conversion is unverified.

NEXT TOPIC!

I choose AGW. :)
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Also, if I may, why are you an antitheist? I consider myself anti-Christianity and anti-Islam, because I feel they do more harm than good to a society, but I would be a fool to assert the same of all religions. Buddhism, for example, is one of the more peaceful religions. It's not fair to lump in all religion with monotheistic, or Abrahamic ones.


Now, I don't hate religions, I just oppose the idea of religions. Judaism is my personal choice of religion, Buddhism is a nice religion too, but I don't fully agree with it. I'm not a huge fan of Christianity mostly because Christians tend to try to convert every single person who doesn't agree with them. I haven't looked much into Islam, but from what I've heard I seem to favour it a bit.

Back onto topic...I am antitheist because I oppose the idea of religions and how it is another way for people to kill over. You don't have to go much farther than Israel to find a shining example of religion and wars it has caused. You don't have to go that far back in history to find 2 examples of religion related genocides in a span of 20 years (in which millions have died). You don't have to go far back in time to find atrocities because of things completely unrelated to religion though too (Holodomor comes into mind). So, really I'm not a religion hater and people can have their own choices of religion and I'll respect that, I just oppose religion as an idea.

Tl;dr version: I oppose religion because it separates humans.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Kori...drop the way you're talking to him..


I have no intentions of respecting someone who does not respect others. Respect is earned, it is not given.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 583 Comments: 20822
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Exactly.



Well said. Good thing about the United States is that you have the freedom to choose what you want and have your own opinion. And I respect everyone's viewpoint and opinion equally.


Freedom is limited by the consequences that society is willing to accept. Of course, a society is also free to be ignorant of, or ignore, said consequences (usually with unpleasant results).

More on topic, climate science isn't about viewpoints or opinions. Opinions mean nothing in the scientific community. You either back up your claims with solid research, or you aren't worth listening to. It doesn't matter if you're a certifiable genius or not. If you can't construct a solid case then you're not going to get anywhere.

The "debates" in the public sphere are about political/ideological viewpoints and opinions, not scientific research. Only a small percentage of the population has the education to understand the complexities involved in any of the hard sciences, let alone a science that combines many of those disciplines together. Corporations and politicians have taken advantage of that fact countless times in the past by using appeals to emotion and related tactics to stop or reduce action being taken that would negatively impact them (see smoking, asbestos, ozone hole, acid rain, national budget, taxes, etc.).

For climate science, the current body of accepted/reviewed scientific evidence and research are in overwhelming agreement that the planet is warming and that we are primarily responsible. The research also shows that there will be consequences of this warming.

That's what the science says. It's not a viewpoint. It's not an opinion. It's cold hard scientific facts.

People are free to disagree of course, but unless they have reputable peer-reviewed research backing up their claims, then they are just stating opinion. And opinions count for little in science.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Hey look guys! He just claims he wants to live in a theocracy!

Kori...drop the way you're talking to him..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267

Quoting SPLbeater:


Just because sin is legalized, doesnt make it right.
Hey look guys! He just claims he wants to live in a theocracy!
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 583 Comments: 20822
Quoting yqt1001:
Sorry for straying off topic here, but I have something to say.

I go to a catholic school. I am confirmed into the french version of christianity. I am an antitheist (a fancy term for having an opposition to religion).

In my religion class (I pick this class because I've known the kids in it for many years), only 3 of them go to church once a month. I doubt any of them go once a week. Most of the kids there don't care about religion, and some of us are hardcore atheists (5-6 I would say).

Religion is a dying fad. It made sense before science disproved it. Really, go back to the 1700s when religion was the most popular. History only went back to Egypt, so anything that could make sense of the pre-human history was accepted. Today, we know more about the history before humans, so we have enough evidence to prove either way that God does and doesn't exist. Atheism, especially here in Canada, is a growing fad. Even in my school atheists are considered cooler than the religious freaks that devote their lives to the church.

Why I am antitheist? Religion has killed hundreds of millions of innocent people. Religion is a large portion of wars and genocides. Yes, there have been modern conflicts on other things, but religion is the backbone of most wars and slaughterings of people.



I also consider myself a hardcore atheist, in the sense that I am firmly established in my convictions. However, I will not definitively claim that there is no god. There is an important difference between believing there is no god, and lacking belief in god. The former is considered strong atheism, and the latter weak atheism. I identify myself with the latter, since we really don't have any proof either way. Now, these terms may seem like meaningless wordplay to you (and to others as well), which is fine, but I've studied theology long enough to know that they have a coherent meaning.

More to the point, science hasn't disproved religion anymore than religion has debased or falsified science's claims. It is true that scientific claims are pretty much inherently better than religious claims simply because of the way the scientific method works (repeatability, something religion sorely lacks). However, any intellectually honest person would freely admit that we lack proof in the direction of god(s), both for and against. The way I see it, there's no real proof for god(s), but there's also no proof against it, either. I merely disbelieve because of a lack of reason to believe (I need evidence). Also, it's important to remember that, although the best religion has to offer is anecdotal evidence, something that doesn't hold up very well as evidence to others, that's all the person experiencing it needs. Actually, that's one of the main reasons I am an atheist. Were I to actually experience something I genuinely deemed to be supernatural in nature, chances are I would believe, provided all other naturalistic explanations were fairly and objectively evaluated and fell short of a satisfactory answer.

Also, if I may, why are you an antitheist? I consider myself anti-Christianity and anti-Islam, because I feel they do more harm than good to a society, but I would be a fool to assert the same of all religions. Buddhism, for example, is one of the more peaceful religions. It's not fair to lump in all religion with monotheistic, or Abrahamic ones.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 583 Comments: 20822
Quoting caneswatch:


I think it's time for you to go to a different site, bub. This is not a site for religion, yet you constantly talk about it.

What's up Conner?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.