CSU and TSR predict above average 2012 Atlantic hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:17 PM GMT on December 07, 2011

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Above-average Atlantic hurricane activity is likely for 2012, but there is a 40% chance of an El Niño event that will keep hurricane activity below average, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued today by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). For the first time in twenty years, the CSU team is not issuing a December forecast with a specific number of tropical storms and hurricanes. Instead, they have issued a more qualitative forecast, which I think is a great idea, since their quantitative December forecasts have shown no skill. Their outlook for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season:

15% chance: Very active season with 14-17 named storms, 9-11 hurricanes, 4-5 major hurricanes
45% chance: Active season with 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-4 major hurricanes
30% chance: Inactive season with 8-11 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes
10% chance: Very inactive season with 5-7 named storms, 2-3 hurricanes, 0-1 major hurricanes

An average season has 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The main reason that CSU's December forecasts have shown no skill is because we have no skill predicting El Niño events nine months or more into the future. When an El Niño event occurs, bringing much above average wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, hurricane activity is substantially reduced. Making successful seasonal hurricane forecasts requires that one make a successful El Niño forecast.


Figure 1. Forecasts of El Niño conditions by 20 computer models, made in November 2011. The longest range forecasts for July-August-September (JAS) at the right side of the image show that 3 models predict weak El Niño conditions, 8 predict neutral conditions, and 1 predicts a weak La Niña. El Niño conditions are defined as occurring when sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America (the "Niño 3.4 region) rise to 0.5°C above average (top red line). La Niña conditions occur when SSTs in this region fall to 0.5°C below average (blue line.) Image credit: Columbia University.

What will El Niño do in 2012?
We currently have a borderline weak to moderate La Niña episode in the Eastern Pacific, characterized by cooler than average waters off the equatorial coast of South America. While we can say with good confidence that La Niña will continue through the winter and into spring, it is highly uncertain what might happen next summer and fall to La Niña. In April and May, we typically see La Niña fade to neutral, and in many cases, a full-blown El Niño will develop by the fall. As the CSU team notes, there have been fourteen years since 1950 which had La Niña conditions that were similar to what we are experiencing this December. During the following years' hurricane season, an El Niño event developed 36% of the time, in those fourteen years. In 2012, the odds of a fall El Niño may be higher than this, since we have gone three years since the last El Niño, and these events typically occur every 3 - 7 years. Of the 12 El Niño/La Niña computer models that made November predictions for the July-August-September 2012 portion of hurricane season (Figure 1), only 3 (20%) predicted that El Niño would arrive. However, these models have no skill predicting El Niño so far in advance.

2012 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR), issued their 2012 Atlantic hurricane season forecast today. TSR is calling for an above-average year, with 14.1 named storms, 6.7 hurricanes, and 3.3 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 49% chance of an above-average hurricane season, 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 21% chance of a below normal season. TSR bases their December forecast on predictions that sea surface temperatures next fall in the tropical Atlantic will be above about 0.1°C above average, and trade wind speeds will be about 0.2 m/s slower than average. The trade wind speed prediction is based on a forecast for neutral El Niño conditions in August - September 2012.

I like how TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 3% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 0% skill for hurricanes, and 7% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much skill, and really, we have to wait until the June 1 forecasts by CSU, NOAA, and TSR to get a forecast with reasonable skill.


Figure 2. Forecast skill of the TSR, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and CSU (Colorado State University) seasonal hurricane outlooks 2002-2011 as a function of lead time. NOAA does not release seasonal outlooks before late May. It is clear there is little skill in forecasting the upcoming number of Atlantic hurricanes from the prior December. Skill climbs slowly as the hurricane season approaches. Moderate skill levels are reached by early June and good skill levels are achieved from early August. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc (TSR).

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TampaSpin:
YOU all should Know and understand that 90% of the Bloggers that blog regular on this Site are VERY LIBERAL LEFT WINGERS that adhere to those Very Liberal Left Wing Views....ITS OK THO....BLOG ON! Gotta run.....HARE A GREAT DAY and Merry CHRISTMAS
yes, let's share this space... but perhaps insinuations can 'follow' statements, and not 'precede' in the absence of evidential commentary... this goes out to your constituency Tampa, but not explicitly to you. we may differ so greatly, but there's a reason i still see your posts, despite those differences!
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Quoting frankfish:

Hey, how's QuiltingQueen and Xyrus2000 doing there, eh? Your two other alternate handles. Really? Nah, you would NEVER do that!!!

LOL


sorry, not me. I am not even tech-savvy enough to play that game. But this is a waste of blog space, and all I have to say. Cheers!
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
SPLbeater

Schizophrenia cannot be cured but it can be treated. Good luck and God bless.

may I say... RAMEN!
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LOOKS like a VERY LARGE NOR-Easter for the EAst coast next WEEK....LOOKS LiKE a Double Banger LOw forms up the East Coast.....Have fun!
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Quoting Coldwellrnd:
245: ok, the previous poster was out of line and rude a bit, but you have to admit your positions on politics and religion are so far, extreme to the left (bordering Marxist) that it isn't funny. Get over it. Be a man and fess up that not everyone subscribes to your liberal banter.
wow, the woodwork is intricate... thanks for the mention of my nearly extreme marxist remarks, because i was not aware i had a proclivity to MAKE ANY SUCH REMARKS! so, with your Nov. 28, 2011 join up, it seems to me you clearly have a good grasp of blogging history here. thanks for sharing.

"contributors may indeed discuss beliefs on this blog, as all have their right to post freely within community standards."
ideology is belief. i have 'been the man' you challenged me to be, already..
-that was your one shot at proving an ability to comprehend. now i get to ignore two handles from you ;)
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Quoting SPLbeater:


it does not matter who agrees with this. some churches have fallen apart, to the horrifying worldy ways, which i have been observing, consume you and others. And as long as you give credit to man and man only, then you will not be giving credit to the right one.


I just dont see how its possible to not give a care about the God that gave you breath


You just got all the Respect i can give you what you have said from your post. Keep your belief and "VALUES"....and i say again your "VALUES", as it will take you higher places in LIFE and BEYOND.
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Wow. The snow streak in the interior northeast from the noreaster is easily visible on this mornings visible imagery.

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
Link

Interesting article...
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Quoting Nekeopbarren:

And why is that? Because he happens to believe in God...

*sigh*

Ahhh minnemike. Dismissing others simply because they don't adhere to your socialist ideology. Somethings will never change I guess...

do you understand the difference between logical reasoning and belief systems? that is the difference that matters. contributors may indeed discuss beliefs on this blog, as all have their right to post freely within community standards. but those efforts to try to counter belief systems with logical reasoning will get no one any further, when discussing a topic solely relying on the faculty of logic and reason, and Not belief. that is why i stated my point, and request those attempting this to leave SLP's comments out of their responses... or to not even engage logic against belief in this first place, being my suggestion.

and WHERE IN THE F do you come off spouting nonsense about 'supposed' socialist ideology.. your response illustrates my point well, and i won't be seeing your replies either... though, i'll give you one reply to show me you can engage in a discussion founded by logic, or rather, just illustrate an ability of comprehension.
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243. Skyepony (Mod)
UK Weather Warning: England Next After 100mph Winds Hit Scotland


SPLbeater~ I just don't see how its possible to not give a care about the air that God gave you to breathe.. Your admitting to breaking from mainstream Christianity so please don't pray for my soul anymore... Good luck in your pursuit as a met..
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i recall Bordonaro posts, especially during plains severe weather event.. I am so sorry to hear this news, and best wishes to family, and friends who knew him well. he was a fine contributor to this blog.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
SPLbeater

Schizophrenia cannot be cured but it can be treated. Good luck and God bless.
THANK YOU for not Quoting this person... who is getting Really hard to ignore when others are... i would say to those trying to reason, that SLP has clearly closed the reasoning door..
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Quoting SPLbeater:


i could get kicked out, yes. but to God be the glory, and i will go far. putting trust in the Lord for the classes, is way better then relying on myself. i am nowhere close to perfect, nobody is. and the one who died for our sins to give us a free gift of repentance, loves me. he loves you. he is a jealous God. not jealous of us, but jealous FOR us. he wants the best for us. yet left and right people are rejecting him to follow their own ways. And he said this would happen when he was on earth in human form. 2011 years ago


I always wondered about that- how can God be both perfect and jealous? Seems like a paradox to me.
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100 km/h gust... power just flickered here in bedford ns
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 604
31 years ago today we lost John Lennon...

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Sad to say Kori but it is all too true. Daughter found him this afternoon and thought he was napping.
. he was a very kind person..My prayers go to him and his family. Rest in peace my friend.
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I see now that the last graph has time all backwards.
I'm used to Time running from left (recent or past) to right (next or future). That it probably just a cultural thing I picked up from books in English and museum displays.
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123000Z

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 965.5mb/ 82.2kt

Raw T# 3.4
Adj T# 3.8
Final T# 4.0

Scene Type: SHEAR
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Here's the NAM 84hr precip plot.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting frankfish:

Posts are sometimes greyed out. You need a login to see every one of them.

You remember Jeff9641?


????
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Quoting frankfish:
You only been here since 2011, Jeff.

Maybe he was a long-time lurker before joining...?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31424
Goes to show just how fragil life is and to sherish every moment as you never know how long you will be in this world.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
I will miss Bordonaro's post. May he RIP. I remember a couple of years ago when he was on the ground making a snow angel after Dallas got 6' to 8" of snow. I believe that was back Jan. 2009. RIP my friend!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
It's been a crazy weather year...and I'm sorry to hear of Bordonaro's death, so sad.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31424
Beautiful morning in West Palm Beach. Temps in upper 50's. A slow warm up for the upcoming week.

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130mph gust on aonach mor, fort william
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Gust of 104mph has been recorded by the Met Office in Glen Ogle. Sustained winds hitting as high as 70mph in elevated areas.

and I'm sorry to hear about Bordonaro.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting caneswatch:
It's so sad to hear of Bordonaro's passing. May he RIP.


So sad when we lose a good person. My thoughts and prayers go out to his family.
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SPLbeater

Schizophrenia cannot be cured but it can be treated. Good luck and God bless.
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Red Alert: Scotland Braced for winds of 100 mph

SCOTLAND is on red alert for its most severe storm in decades with the Central Belt expected to be lashed today by devastating hurricane-force winds gusting up to 100mph.

Last-minute warnings from the Met Office led to a recommendation from the Scottish Government that schools on the west coast should remain closed, while pupils in the east of the country should travel home at lunchtime.

Police are also likely to take the unprecedented step of advising motorists across the country to avoid using the roads altogether when the storm is at its height.

Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said after an emergency meeting of the Scottish Cabinet last night: “Having considered the updated information received from the Met Office tonight, the police have advised that there is a probability that they will change their travel advice in the coming hours from warning about a high risk of disruption to a position where they will advise drivers to avoid travelling on the roads in the affected areas.

“The decision is a matter for individual authorities but the warnings are of the highest level of seriousness and we are clear that safety has to be the paramount issue. Parents should check locally through websites, local radio and with their schools to find out the specific situation with their own schools.

“All commuters are advised that, if they can, to adjust their working pattern to reflect the latest weather and travel advice or work from home. ”

Police warned that travel conditions today will be “extremely poor” when the winds are at their peak with “significant delays” and a “severe impact” on the evening rush hour. All main bridges, including the Forth Road Bridge, are likely to be closed while trees and vehicles are at risk of being blown over.

Central Scotland Assistant Chief Constable Allan Moffat on behalf of the Association of Chief Police Officers (Scotland) (ACPOS) said: “We will be continually monitoring weather reports and there is a probability that based upon these updates, we will recommend that the public should avoid travelling in the regions of Scotland which are most affected by the extreme weather.

“It is likely that any such recommendations will commence in the west of Scotland from approximately 7am generally moving eastwards throughout the day.”

The Scottish Government’s Transport Scotland agency said disruption to power supplies and property was also “a strong possibility”.

Transport minister Keith Brown said the storm would pose “a major challenge” for commuters and warned them to “avoid unnecessary risks”.

He said the Met Office was confident wind speeds would exceed 75mph and could even top 100mph. According to the Beaufort scale, which measures wind conditions, gusts of 73mph and over are described as hurricane force.

The Met Office’s red level severe weather warning is the UK’s first since heavy snow in Scotland last December and Scotland’s first high winds for years. It covers Lothian and the Borders, Strathclyde, Central, Fife, Tayside and south-west Scotland.

Mr Brown said it “looks set to be a major challenge for our transport system, commuters and the public”.

“The initial high winds are expected to peak [from the] afternoon into the evening, so commuters are advised if they can to leave work earlier or work from home that would be a very sensible step to help avoid possible rush-hour delays,” he said.

. . .
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
PERTURBATION TROPICALE (02-20112012)
10:30 AM RET December 8 2011
==============================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02 (1001 hPa) located at 16.7S 65.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Additional Information
======================

The system remains northwesterly sheared but convective activity is closer to the low level circulation center since last night.

System is forecast to keep on tracking globally westward without significant further intensification then to fill up on and after December 10th.

The system, as a weak stage, should pass far away north of Rodrigues Island Friday but heavy rain should occur over this island from December 9th through December 11th

CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING.



good to see a tropical comment, not somebody bashing me, even tho it helps. How goes it in your area Hades?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
215. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
PERTURBATION TROPICALE (02-20112012)
10:30 AM RET December 8 2011
==============================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02 (1001 hPa) located at 16.7S 65.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Additional Information
======================

The system remains northwesterly sheared but convective activity is closer to the low level circulation center since last night.

System is forecast to keep on tracking globally westward without significant further intensification then to fill up on and after December 10th.

The system, as a weak stage, should pass far away north of Rodrigues Island Friday but heavy rain should occur over this island from December 9th through December 11th

CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING.
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Quoting Skyepony:


5 degrees? Your never gonna pass that WMO certification test..from one of the links I left you..the one where the head of WMO says..

“Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have reached new highs. They are very rapidly approaching levels consistent with a 2-2.4 degree Centigrade rise in average global temperatures which scientists believe could trigger far reaching and irreversible changes in our Earth, biosphere and oceans,” he said.


Are those that slashed the use of CFCs, saved the ozone & life on earth as we know it from ultraviolet rays going to hell for that or something? You're being fatalistic about this. Priests & church leaders are discouraging this..standing behind the scientists. If Southern Baptist Priests get it why not you?


it does not matter who agrees with this. some churches have fallen apart, to the horrifying worldy ways, which i have been observing, consume you and others. And as long as you give credit to man and man only, then you will not be giving credit to the right one.


I just dont see how its possible to not give a care about the God that gave you breath
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
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211. Skyepony (Mod)
Kori~ No need to doubt. You are correct about Gray..
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Does Gray not? I haven't really seen him say specifically that he doesn't, I've just seen him try to disprove claims that GW will cause an increased number of storms or stronger storms
You know what? I'm actually not sure. I probably shouldn't have insinuated I did. Though it does seem like I've heard it somewhere before.
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209. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting SPLbeater:


another 50 year graph. another 'warming up' of average temeratures. if the average dont go up bout 5 degrees, then you most likely wont feel it and shouldnt be called warming.

God has a plan, all that is/will happen is in his control, not ours.


5 degrees? Your never gonna pass that WMO certification test..from one of the links I left you..the one where the head of WMO says..

“Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have reached new highs. They are very rapidly approaching levels consistent with a 2-2.4 degree Centigrade rise in average global temperatures which scientists believe could trigger far reaching and irreversible changes in our Earth, biosphere and oceans,” he said.


Are those that slashed the use of CFCs, saved the ozone & life on earth as we know it from ultraviolet rays going to hell for that or something? You're being fatalistic about this. Priests & church leaders are discouraging this..standing behind the scientists. If Southern Baptist Priests get it why not you?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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