Climate change education in zoos

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:20 PM GMT on December 05, 2011

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I'm in San Francisco this week for the annual Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), the world's largest gathering of Earth Scientists. Over ten thousand scientists from all over the world, including most of the world's top climate scientists, are in town this week to exchange ideas to advance the cause of Earth Science. This year, there is much attention being given to communication of science to the public, and the first talk I attended today on the subject was given by Dr. Michael Mann of Penn State University. Dr. Mann has been at the center of much recent controversy over climate science, and has an op-ed in today's Wall Street Journal titled, "Climate Contrarians Ignore Overwhelming Evidence". His "hockey stick" graphs showing the unprecedented increase in global temperatures over the past 1,000 years has been the subject of heated attack, much of it orchestrated by the public relations wings of powerful industries whose profits are threatened by by possibility of regulatory action to reduce global warming. He has a book coming out in January titled, The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines. Dr. Mann reaffirmed his stance on human-caused climate change in his talk this morning, calling attention to a paper that appeared in Nature Geoscience last week, finding that most of the observed warming of Earth's climate in recent decades—at least 74 percent—is almost certainly due to human activity. Dr. Mann said that this study did not go far enough, and that more than 100% of the warming in the past 30 years was due to humans. Without humans, the climate would have cooled over the past 30 years.


Figure 1. An example of educational material on polar bears that has been developed by CliZEN for use at nine U.S. zoos.

Dr. Mann also introduced a new pilot program he is involved with to advance climate change education through U.S. zoos. The National Science Foundation-funded project is called CliZEN, The Climate Literacy Zoo Education Network. Zoos represent a unique way for people to connect to the natural world, and over 50 million people in the U.S. go to the zoo each year--double that, if one includes aquariums. Thus, zoos thus offer a unique opportunity to communicate how climate change threatens the natural world. People who go to zoos are approximately 50% more likely to be alarmed or concerned about climate change than the general population, Dr. Mann showed. The initial eduction effort has a polar theme, and is being brought to nine zoos: the Chicago Zoological Society of Brookfield, IL; Columbus Zoo & Aquarium, OH; Como Zoo & Conservatory, St. Paul, MN; Indianapolis Zoo, IN; Louisville Zoological Garden, KY; Oregon Zoo, Portland, OR; Pittsburgh Zoo & PPG Aquarium, PA; Roger Williams Park Zoo, Providence, RI; and the Toledo Zoological Gardens, OH. The organization Polar Bears International is helping develop the educational material.

Jeff Masters

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and, our little TD 02S:
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
TC Alegna:
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
CI# /Pressure /Vmax
1.9 /1003.4mb /29.0kt

Raw T# 2.5
Adj T# 2.2
FInal T# 1.9

Scene Type: CURVED BAND...

Weakening Flag: OFF <-----------LOL, oh how intensity varies...
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CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 985.2mb/ 61.0kt

Raw T# 3.7
Adj T# 3.7
Final T# 3.7

Scene Type: UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Weakening Flag: ON <-----------lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
As soon as 2012's season ends El nino should be revving up and the ATL will be quiet for 2013... 14' well you got me there ;)


i tracked an El Nino the first time i ever tracked the tropics...i had a lil guidance if where to get som things(from crappy media products) i think i enjoyed Bill and Ida the best. Ida was cool because i had the NHC tracking map, with Bill i really didnt know when to get an update and took what i got when i got it xD
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Beautiful Sunset I took video of Link
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As soon as 2012's season ends El nino should be revving up and the ATL will be quiet for 2013... 14' well you got me there ;)
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
WOW, i find this hard to believe...
1969 a weak el nino, produced 18 storms, and CAMILLE, the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin... 190 MPH!!! Insane


in the book i read, a policeman had an anemometer on his police boat(which was washed onshore of course) it had a recording of 10 minutes of 201mph windspeeds.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
We can narrow down the analogs according to the Pattern im think we'll be in and picked some analogs i think that could be accurate from the graph:
1996
2008
1968


Lol, and i find it funny, how they have almost nothing in common with each other track-wise, but at this time we fit with 2008's pattern best... 96 is also a pretty good analog year...
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Skyepony Post #311 - Interesting links; thank you.
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Weak El Ninos, really dont influence the #'s for the ATL season just more of the track, which brings most storms right up near the Carolinas and then out to sea, or if the storm makes it to the caribbean, the US screwed... ;) El ninos typically bring a neutral pattern type track
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
WOW, i find this hard to believe...
1969 a weak el nino, produced 18 storms, and CAMILLE, the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin... 190 MPH!!! Insane


Modiki El Nino, most likely.
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WOW, i find this hard to believe...
1969 a weak el nino, produced 18 storms, and CAMILLE, the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin... 190 MPH!!! Insane
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Someone looking for this? ;) (Tom)
this can help you out with research, doing some myself now ;)
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311. Skyepony (Mod)
Uniontown, KY is fighting flood tonight with broken pumps..

Outer Banks residents hear options to repair N.C. 12

9 Bits and Scenes at a Global Huddle on a Grave Crisis

Earth Networks Announces Major Expansion of Canadian Weather Monitoring and Lightning Network

As much as 45 tons of radioactive water leaked from Japan's crippled Fukushima nuclear station over the weekend and some may have reached the sea, Tokyo Electric Power Co. said. The leakage shows the company known as Tepco is still struggling to control the disaster nine months after an earthquake and tsunami wrecked the plant. The water contained 1.8 millisieverts per hour of gamma radiation and 110 millisieverts of beta radiation, Tepco said in an e-mailed statement Saturday. "The source of the beta radiation in the water is likely to include strontium 90, which if absorbed in the body through eating tainted seaweed or fish, accumulates in bone and can cause cancer," said Tetsuo Ito, the head of Kinki University's Atomic Energy Research Institute. Since the March 11 disaster, the utility has reported several leaks of radiated water into the sea, though its estimates of their size has been disputed. In October, a French nuclear research institute said the Fukushima plant was responsible for the biggest discharge of radioactive material into the ocean in history. Tepco is still checking whether the water reached the sea, spokeswoman Chie Hosoda said by phone today. The water leaked from a desalination unit and through a cracked concrete wall into a gutter that drains into the Pacific Ocean, she said. Radiated water has now been pumped out of the building where it was leaking from. The study by the French government-funded Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety said radioactive cesium that flowed into the sea from the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant was 20 times the amount estimated by Tepco. Prolonged exposure to high levels of radiation can cause leukemia and other forms of cancer, according to the World Nuclear Association.

Antarctic's hidden world revealed

Nuclear missile debacle in ND.

& for something that just looks really neat..NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded this extreme ultraviolet flash from a C6-class solar flare in the sunspot's magnetic canopy during the late hours of Dec. 5th.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Yeah, no worries. It is true that La Ninas do tend to favor more activity in the Caribbean than El Ninos do

El nino's bring east coast riders and small cape verde systems (sometimes).
Strong La ninas like 2010 bring troughiness and make most of all the hurricanes and cape verde storms out to sea.

Neutral and Weaker La ninas~ well UH OH
I plan to research ENSO's influence on track and formation points more in depth over the coming days. So far, after just looking at a few websites, the only conclusive thing I have found so far is that there tends to be less activity over the deep tropics during El Nino years. This being due to higher vertical wind shear.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Whoa...I forgot...Colorado State University (CSU) releases their 2012 Atlantic hurricane season predictions tomorrow.



Who cares? December forecasts have no skill.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Yeah, no worries. It is true that La Ninas do tend to favor more activity in the Caribbean than El Ninos do

El nino's bring east coast riders and small cape verde systems (sometimes).
Strong La ninas like 2010 bring troughiness and make most of all the hurricanes and cape verde storms out to sea.

Neutral and Weaker La ninas~ well UH OH


Strong la ninas also bring West bounders like Dean 07, Felix 07, ETC Straight west... rare for them to turn north...
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Yeah, no worries. It is true that La Ninas do tend to favor more activity in the Caribbean than El Ninos do

El nino's bring east coast riders and small cape verde systems (sometimes).
Strong La ninas like 2010 bring troughiness and make most of all the hurricanes and cape verde storms out to sea.

Neutral and Weaker La ninas~ well UH OH
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Quoting disasterrelief:
Hey guys, I am working a lightning claim in Dallas, and I can't find any "lightning maps" available anywhere. Does anyone know if something like this exists? The date of loss is 11/25.



http://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/documents/STRIKEf ax.pdf

http://www.vaisala.com/en/products/thunderstorman dlightningdetectionsystems/Pages/NLDN.aspx
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My predictions for the december edition of the 2012 season is:
15-16 Named storms
6-7 Hurricanes
2-4 Major Hurricanes
0-1 Category 5's(you can never rule it out, you know?)
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Quoting yqt1001:


There really isn't enough seasons to get the data from, so I'm pretty foolish for saying that. Otherwise, I still think that the Caribbean will be the center of the excitement of 2012.


Yeah, no worries. It is true that La Ninas do tend to favor more activity in the Caribbean than El Ninos do.
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303. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting disasterrelief:
Hey guys, I am working a lightning claim in Dallas, and I can't find any "lightning maps" available anywhere. Does anyone know if something like this exists? The date of loss is 11/25.


I looked at WeatherUnderground radar archives. Like go to Nexrad for Dallas, zoom in how you want it. Then put the date in on the lower right. Damage most likely occurred in the early hours on 11-26, not the 25th. Unfortunately I don't think lightning shows up in the archive..
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Which is why we will probably see more of a close to home hurricane season as opposed to a Cape-Verde one.
relative to last year? yeah probably if the NAO stays positive most of the winter
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HEY GUYS!!!

New blog for all the tropic lovers out there, or if you want something new to read lol

Link to it
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Which is why we will probably see more of a close to home hurricane season as opposed to a Cape-Verde one.


:(

i like my Cape Verde hurricanes...they stick around for over a week....sometimes they get big and purty...this is sad news for me xD
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481

notice on the south western portion of south america the cold tounge is gone just warm water. this was the collapse of the 2007/2008 la nina which left the 2008 season FULLY NEUTRAL NO LA NINA AGAIN and after that we know 2009 had a rapid warm up which left us with el nino for the 2009 season season

now look at us

same thing. expect la nina to maintain itself to march then slowly weaken and expect neutral to stay i would say from the spring of 2012 to at least the fall and from there we could get hey another la nina or a major warm up into el nino who knows all im saying is the warm tounge points to NO LA NINA for a while so the one we have now should be our last for a while
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Have to disagree with the bold


Here are three 3rd year La Nina hurricane season plots

1956




1975




2000







2000 wasn't totally a 3rd year La Nina but I figured I'd throw it in there since otherwise I'd only have two years. Anyway, as you can see, activity does not tend to be focused in the Caribbean during 3rd year La Ninas.


There really isn't enough seasons to get the data from, so I'm pretty foolish for saying that. Otherwise, I still think that the Caribbean will be the center of the excitement of 2012.
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Quoting yqt1001:
For 2012 I'm thinking:

13-16 named storms
9-10 hurricanes
4-5 major hurricanes

Why? Just basing this off of the fact that 3rd year La Ninas/neutrals tend to be based around the Caribbean, and the lack of heat released in the Caribbean could allow for an excessive amount of storms to form down there. After looking at maps of seasons and the seasons before them, the least active area of one season tends to be a more active area of the next.

2010 was based more in the deep tropics while 2011 was based more in the subtropical areas.
2008 was mostly a Caribeban-GoM season, and 2009 was mostly a (weak) CV season with Ida being the only real Caribbean storm. 2011 was similar in this aspect, so seeing a 2010-esque Caribbean season for 2012 seems possible, while seeing a quiet (but stronger) CV one also seems possible.

We'll see, but Rina is not enough to lower the Caribbean SSTs to a point where we wont see a few hurricanes form in there in my opinion.
Have to disagree with the bold


Here are three 3rd year La Nina hurricane season plots

1956




1975




2000







2000 wasn't totally a 3rd year La Nina but I figured I'd throw it in there since otherwise I'd only have two years. Anyway, as you can see, activity does not tend to be focused in the Caribbean during 3rd year La Ninas.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
lol

Well mostly based off of cooler Atlantic SSTs. SSTs anomalies and anomalies relative to other basins really make all the difference. Ocean holds way more heat than the atmosphere, therefore it is the strongest driver of weather/climate. After all, the ENSO, AMO, PDO, and IOD are all measures of SST anomalies.

The NAO/AO and QBO are also things to consider. La Nina tends to favor a positive AO and NAO. Positive NAO leads to a stronger subtropical ridge, stronger winds over the tropical Atlantic, making for more upwelling/overturning, and also more evaporative cooling. QBO should be in the easterly phase. QBO doesn't seem to have much of an influence anymore, but it is said that the westerly phase is more conducive for greater storm activity and intensity in the Atlantic.

Which is why we will probably see more of a close to home hurricane season as opposed to a Cape-Verde one.
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For 2012 I'm thinking:

13-16 named storms
9-10 hurricanes
4-5 major hurricanes

Why? Just basing this off of the fact that 3rd year La Ninas/neutrals tend to be based around the Caribbean, and the lack of heat released in the Caribbean could allow for an excessive amount of storms to form down there. After looking at maps of seasons and the seasons before them, the least active area of one season tends to be a more active area of the next.

2010 was based more in the deep tropics while 2011 was based more in the subtropical areas.
2008 was mostly a Caribbean-GoM season, and 2009 was mostly a (weak) CV season with Ida being the only real Caribbean storm. 2011 was similar in this aspect, so seeing a 2010-esque Caribbean season for 2012 seems possible, while seeing a quiet (but stronger) CV one also seems possible.

We'll see, but Rina is not enough to lower the Caribbean SSTs to a point where we wont see a few hurricanes form in there in my opinion.
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guys in JUNE this year models showed neutral throught the 2011 season. 3 weeks later a random weak la nina starts reforming... i dont expect to see another one once the one we have now dies. talked to a couple tropical meteorologists. they say the the E pac will be warming up not el nino but neutral will stay for a while. el nino is not out of the freshold but we will find out in march because in early 09 models already showed el nino forming.... im calling neutral to stay. not really a pleasent enso condition. katrina rita wilma charley ivan frances ike gustav i could go on...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just curious, but based on what?
Nevermind.
lol

Well mostly based off of cooler Atlantic SSTs. SSTs anomalies and anomalies relative to other basins really make all the difference. Ocean holds way more heat than the atmosphere, therefore it is the strongest driver of weather/climate. After all, the ENSO, AMO, PDO, and IOD are all measures of SST anomalies.

The NAO/AO and QBO are also things to consider. La Nina tends to favor a positive AO and NAO. Positive NAO leads to a stronger subtropical ridge, stronger winds over the tropical Atlantic, making for more upwelling/overturning, and also more evaporative cooling. QBO should be in the easterly phase. QBO doesn't seem to have much of an influence anymore, but it is said that the westerly phase is more conducive for greater storm activity and intensity in the Atlantic.
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Hey guys, I am working a lightning claim in Dallas, and I can't find any "lightning maps" available anywhere. Does anyone know if something like this exists? The date of loss is 11/25.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
290. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
PERTURBATION TROPICALE (02-20112012)
4:30 AM RET December 7 2011
==============================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02 (1000 hPa) located at 16.0S 67.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving northwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 15.9S 66.9E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.9S 65.9E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 15.7S 64.0E - 20 knots (Low Pressure

Additional Information
======================

No significant burst of deep convection has occurred close to the center last night. Re-analysis of past track shows that the low level circulation center is now tracking slowly northwestward.

It appears unlikely that the system deepens significantly due to its ill-defined cloud pattern and give the fact that the shear should now start to strengthen. Intensity forecast is lowered and this is the main change from this advisory.

The system, as a filling low, should pass well north of Rodrigues Island Thursday night or Friday.
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Quoting HuracanTaino:
Well, perhaps because one of the main factors for considering the potentiality of a system to develop, isn't there;is call climatology.

Yeah, but a system with a chance of development should be treated as such, whether it is in July/August or November/December.
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288. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ALENGA (01-20112012)
4:30 AM RET December 7 2011
==============================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Alenga (995 hPa) located at 14.5S 89.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center extending up to 40 NM in the northern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
50 NM from the center extending up to 60 NM in the northern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 15.3S 91.0E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 16.2S 93.8E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 19.2S 99.1E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 20.7S 99.9E - 30 knots (Depression Extratropicale)

Additional Information
======================

On infrared imagery, Alenga shows a very cold central dense overcast like feature (although this is used for visible imagery) that has gain in size during the night (up to 160 NM in diameter). 2008z TRMM microwave imagery was useful to locate the center and to show that the system seems to still suffer from a lack of inner core organization, mainly in the low level and in the eastern semi-circle. Consequently and although the overall pattern is similar or slightly better than 24 hours ago. The system is maintain at the same intensity than previously.

Alenga seems now to speed up towards the east southeast as it is catching within the west northwesterly steering flow that exists ahead of a mid level trough transiting in its south. No major change from the 1200z numerical weather prediction cycle for the track forecast. All guidance continue to be tightly packed until day 3.

The system has still a small opportunity for some strengthening over warm sea surface temperature and an improving upper level divergence mainly n the southern semi-circle. On and after Thursday, system should undergo a moderate west northwesterly vertical wind shear and move over cooler waters. Intensity is expected to decrease faster and should begin its extratropical transition.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY RSMC REUNION FOR THIS SYSTEM. NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTER PERTH.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What gives a reason to be is my question. I don't see why the National Hurricane Center would treat a system any differently because its the off-season.
Well, perhaps because one of the main factors for considering the potentiality of a system to develop, isn't there;is call climatology.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
We shall see, but as of right now I think it will be a struggle to reach 15 named storms. Right now I'm thinking in the neighborhood of 12-16.

Just curious, but based on what?
Nevermind.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't think we'll see the 19 named storms we saw this year or last, but I think we'll somewhere between 15-18 named storms.
We shall see, but as of right now I think it will be a struggle to reach those numbers. Right now I'm thinking in the neighborhood of 12-16, but I'll be watching the seasonal model forecasts, Atlantic SST anomalies, and progression of the ENSO.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Pleading with people to please believe that humans are not affecting the environment even though the scientific consensus is that we are sounds like pathetic to me. outvoted and we are supposed to feel sorry for you because of your whiney tone. Like a parent gives in to a kid because he/she won't shut up.


i dont take a side here because im fed up with climate change crap. i will just say that it makes such a difference when you let the earths' creator lead the way you live.


Im not worried about anything.
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Quoting panthan63:
scientific discussion? where? all i see are belief systems and tropical paradises. the scientific method does not start out with how do i get the results i want? but rather, where will this lead me? it is so disingenuous to throw out climate data more than 100 years old. the squeaky wheel gets the grease, and if we let these street corner end of the worlders now scientists keep it up, we will lose more of our freedoms, more of our standard of living, less opportunities, and more wars. not only wars, but wars so devastating, it does not matter where the sea levels are. and in the end, it will not matter because mother nature and the earth is going to do what it is doing no matter how we change what we are doing. every human on the planet could disappear tomorrow and there will still be climate change.
Few things

This is a tropical weather blog, not a scientific discussion forum.

Secondly, the bold sentence could not be more wrong. Science has advanced our standard of living since day one and has also greatly expanded our freedoms. Furthermore, increasing our use of renewable energies would help to prevent wars as it would limit our dependence on foreign nations.

Third, I find it terribly ironic that you come here looking for scientific discussion when you can't even back up your claims with evidence.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
yeah we will see how these forecasts change as we get closer to next year's hurricane season. Although it is already showing that next year should be drier, particularly over the Caribbean, but also over the Atlantic ocean and African continent.

I don't think we'll see the 19 named storms we saw this year or last, but I think we'll somewhere between 15-18 named storms.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Taking into account that one image shows FMA (February-March-April) 2012, and the other covers AMJ (April-May-June) 2011, they look very similar.

Last year:



2012:

yeah we will see how these forecasts change as we get closer to next year's hurricane season. Although it is already showing that next year should be drier, particularly over the Caribbean, but also over the Atlantic ocean and African continent.
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Pleading with people to please believe that humans are not affecting the environment even though the scientific consensus is that we are sounds like pathetic to me. outvoted and we are supposed to feel sorry for you because of your whiney tone. Like a parent gives in to a kid because he/she won't shut up.
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scientific discussion? where? all i see are belief systems and tropical paradises. the scientific method does not start out with how do i get the results i want? but rather, where will this lead me? it is so disingenuous to throw out climate data more than 100 years old. the squeaky wheel gets the grease, and if we let these street corner end of the worlders now scientists keep it up, we will lose more of our freedoms, more of our standard of living, less opportunities, and more wars. not only wars, but wars so devastating, it does not matter where the sea levels are. and in the end, it will not matter because mother nature and the earth is going to do what it is doing no matter how we change what we are doing. every human on the planet could disappear tomorrow and there will still be climate change.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I think you mean chart.

Yeah, Yeah, I fixed it. =P
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...and the current ENSO model predictions. They have us crossing the Neutral threshold in MAM (March-April-May), which we could extrapolate to the formation of El Nino by October/November of next season. However, when dealing with ENSO, that may not be such a good idea. ;)

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Found an interesting chat regarding El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO):



NDJ = November, December, January
DJF = December, January, February
JFM = January, February, March
FMA = February, March, April
MAM = March, April, May
AMJ = April, May, June
MJJ = May, June, July
JJA = June, July, August
JAS = July, August, September
ASO = August, September, October

I think you mean chart.
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Found an interesting chart regarding El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO):



NDJ = November (2011), December (2011), January
DJF = December (2011), January, February
JFM = January, February, March
FMA = February, March, April
MAM = March, April, May
AMJ = April, May, June
MJJ = May, June, July
JJA = June, July, August
JAS = July, August, September
ASO = August, September, October
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.