The City That Plans to be Flooded

By: Douglas Hill , 2:22 PM GMT on December 02, 2011

Share this Blog
22
+

A guest post by Douglas Hill, a consulting engineer and an adjunct lecturer at the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at Stony Brook University in New York.

Hurricane Irene, remember? Irene, diminished to a mere tropical storm when it struck New York City, came and went, soon disappearing from the news. But think back to August 26 when Irene, a Category 3 hurricane with winds of more than 110 miles per hour, was approaching the North Carolina coast and headed directly for New York City. Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg called a news conference to order 370,000 people to evacuate their homes. Then he stepped aside, and MTA chairman Jay Walder stepped to the microphone and announced that public transportation--buses as well as trains--was being shut down.


Figure 1. GOES-East visible satellite image of Irene taken at 7:45 am EDT on Sunday, August 28, 2011. At the time, Irene was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds, making landfall on Long Island, New York. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization laboratory.

Evacuation without transportation: a novel concept that the mayor described as "preparing for the worst and hoping for the best." Fortunately, hoping for the best worked.

Unfortunately, the City is still hoping for the best, and it is not preparing for the worst. The coastal storm plan of the Office of Emergency Management (OEM) includes strategies for storm tracking, public information, evacuation procedures, people with special needs, recovery, and restoration, but nothing to prevent flooding.

In other words, New York City is planning to be flooded--and according to the National Hurricane Center, it will be. Based on the historical record, hurricanes of Categories 1, 2 and 3 will strike the New York region on an average of every 17, 39 and 68 years, respectively. The City has been overdue for a Category 1 hurricane--Irene should have been no surprise--and we may expect hurricanes of Categories 2 and 3 within the next decade or two. In testimony to a U.S. Senate committee, Max Mayfield, the former director of the National Hurricane Center, said, "It is not a question of if a major hurricane will strike the New York area, but when" (his emphasis.)

The greatest potential for loss of life from a hurricane has historically been from the storm surge. If the eye of a Category 3 hurricane crossed the New Jersey shore, the surge could reach 24 feet--compared with 4.5 feet in Hurricane Irene's--flooding the World Trade Center site and Wall Street, with City Hall resting on a separate island south of the rest of Manhattan. The ripples from a crippled financial district in lower Manhattan would be felt worldwide. In a severe hurricane, the OEM has estimated that up to three million people would have to evacuate, if that can be imagined.



Figure 2. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge into New York City in a worst-case scenario. The image was generated using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. This "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. This Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) image was generated for high tide and is a composite of the maximum storm surge found for dozens of individual runs of different Category 2 storms with different tracks. Thus, no single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in this SLOSH storm surge image. Consult wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps page for more storm surge images of the U.S. coast.

Other major ports have taken measures to prevent being flooded. After the 1938 hurricane, storm surge barriers were built in New England to protect New Bedford, Providence and Stamford. After a disastrous storm in the North Sea in 1953, the Thames Barrier was built to protect London, and the Delta Plan was started in the Netherlands which includes three such barriers, one protecting Rotterdam, Europe's busiest port. Following Hurricane Katrina, a long-disputed barrier was constructed at the entrance to Lake Pontchartrain along with several others, which are now considered to make New Orleans hurricane-proof to Category 3 storms. Barriers are being completed to protect St. Petersburg, Russia, and Venice, Italy.

The heart of New York City could be protected in the same way. Moveable barriers, closed only when the city is threatened with major coastal flooding, could be placed at the upper end of the East River, across the Narrows and at the mouth of the Arthur Kill. Possibly, the latter two could be replaced with a single, longer barrier extending from Sandy Hook to the Rockaway peninsula. Modeling studies have demonstrated that the barriers would work. Four major engineering firms have presented conceptual designs and cost estimates for barriers at these locations. The estimated costs for these individual barriers range from $1 billion to $4.6 billion, with the total of the two or three needed less than $10 billion, comparable to other major infrastructure projects planned or underway.


Figure 3. Proposed hurricane storm surge barrier for New York City near the Verrazano Narrows Bridge. Image credit: Arcadis, Inc.

But unlike the original, the 2010 revision of plaNYC, the City's principal planning document, makes no reference to storm surge barriers. The City's latest plans are seen in the March 2011 Vision 2020: NYC Comprehensive Waterfront Plan, which calls not for protecting the waterfront, but for climate "resilience," the ability to withstand and recover from the disaster. Unfortunately, this may be the best that can be done for those living in the coastal sections of the boroughs that face the Atlantic Ocean.

So the Great Evacuation of August 2011 is a test. In its postmortem on the storm on September 5, the New York Times concluded that "by almost any measure, the evacuation was a success," but it did not report on the principal measure. How many people were left behind? Unlike New Orleans after Katrina, we won't know by counting the bodies. Not this time, anyway.

Douglas Hill, EngScD, P.E., Stony Brook University

Other posts in this series
Storm surge barriers: the New England Experience
Hurricane Irene: New York City's close call

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 363 - 313

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

363. scottiesaunt
5:52 AM GMT on December 16, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin:



They do a very poor job of that decision making Dr. Masters IMO! You might want to evaluate the process. Just my opinion tho!


Dr Masters may want to evaluate the people that he has given admin authority to.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 91
362. interstatelover7165
2:23 AM GMT on December 06, 2011
...what happened...you're part of the world blew up?
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
361. interstatelover7165
1:56 AM GMT on December 06, 2011
*chirp chirp*
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
360. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:03 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Quoting WxGeekVA:
I'm surprised that there is a possible snowstorm for the mid Atlantic on Thursday but nobody has mentioned it yet!

Snowstorm? Definitely not...Light accumulations possible however.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
359. WxGeekVA
7:28 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
I'm surprised that there is a possible snowstorm for the mid Atlantic on Thursday but nobody has mentioned it yet!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3475
358. SPLbeater
6:30 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
ASCAT pased directly over 01S:
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
357. RitaEvac
6:11 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Still showing teens in TX panhandle at this hour
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
356. hydrus
6:00 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
355. hydrus
5:57 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Neat sat pic of 90L..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
354. Patrap
5:18 PM GMT on December 05, 2011


Closer to Finding an Earth

This artist's conception illustrates Kepler-22b, a planet known to comfortably circle in the habitable zone of a sun-like star. It is the first planet that NASA's Kepler mission has confirmed to orbit in a star's habitable zone -- the region around a star where liquid water, a requirement for life on Earth, could persist. The planet is 2.4 times the size of Earth, making it the smallest yet found to orbit in the middle of the habitable zone of a star like our sun.

Scientists do not yet know if the planet has a predominantly rocky, gaseous or liquid composition. It's possible that the world would have clouds in its atmosphere, as depicted here in the artist's interpretation.

Image credit: NASA/Ames/JPL-Caltech



NASA's Kepler Mission Confirms Its First Planet in Habitable Zone of Sun-like Star
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
353. yqt1001
5:04 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Alenga has developed decent banding and outflow around all quadrants. CDO isn't very symmetrical, but Alenga is probably atleast a 70mph cyclone at this time.

Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
352. RitaEvac
5:03 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Temps in the 30s west of Austin,TX
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
351. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:58 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Quoting SPLbeater:
the JTWC really oughta issue warnings every 6 hours, not 12 lol....data gets old in my book xD


Joint Typhoon Warning Center is the unofficial warning center for the Indian and southern Pacific ocean which is why people always refer to Mauritius/Seychelles, Bureau of Meteorology, Jakarta, and Nadi RSMCs
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45601
350. Some1Has2BtheRookie
4:57 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:
Update on the Brazillian oil spill..

An oil spill by Chevron off the southeast coast of Brazil has resulted in an oil leak of more than 3,000 barrels into the Atlantic Ocean. Since the spill, Chevron has been banned from drilling for oil in Brazil until an investigation into the site of the leak is completed. One of the largest deepwater heavy oil projects in the world was recently discovered in the Frade Field off the Brazilian coast. The well that was the site of the leak is one of Chevron's “biggest capital investments,” according to the company's website. The Frade Field is estimated to have a minimum reserve worth of 50 billion barrels of oil. George Buck, the chief operating officer for Chevron's Brazilian division, told the Associated Press that the spill occurred because Chevron underestimated the pressure in an underwater reservoir. This underestimation caused crude oil to rush up a bore-hole and eventually escape into the surrounding seabed. Oil has leaked through at least seven narrow fissures on the ocean floor, all within 160 meters of the wellhead.

Brazil's Environment Ministry (IBAMA) has fined Chevron nearly $28 million, and the company could face five or six times that amount in fines based on the findings of IBAMA. Andre Obata, a sophomore from Brazil majoring in ICS-Communications explained, “IBAMA is in charge of protecting the environment in Brazil, and they already charged the company a lot of money and made them cease drilling. If they look into it and find that a lack of responsibility caused the leak, then I think they should shut down Chevron's drilling. I don't think that oil extraction is a bad thing because we need it, but if they aren't doing all their safety checks then they shouldn't be drilling.” Officials from the ministry have criticized Chevron and the regulatory agency for not fully sharing information about the spill early on, and not having proper emergency equipment on hand to deal with the spill. Chevron has taken full responsibility for the spill, but denies the accusations. Fabio Marques, a sophomore from Brazil majoring in supply chain management and information systems, said “If Chevron cannot drill safely, then the government should reevaluate Chevron's eligibility to drill. Chevron waited ten days before notifying the Brazilian government of the spill, and didn’t do anything about it.”

The drilling contractor is Transocean, the owner of the Deepwater Horizon rig that BP Oil Company was leasing at the time of last years oil spill. Currently the spill is confined to less than two square miles. “This is a huge test for Brazil. Being one of the richest nations in oil,” said Marques, “Brazil will have to know what to do to protect the environment. As one of the leading nations in oil they will need to be responsible for protecting the environment. This will be a huge test for the government.”


"...caused crude oil to rush up a bore-hole and eventually escape into the surrounding seabed. Oil has leaked through at least seven narrow fissures on the ocean floor, all within 160 meters of the wellhead." - Is this what we were dreading with the Deep Horizon? The possibility of the borehole collapsing and no way to cap it? I certainly hope that this will not happen.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4745
349. RitaEvac
4:50 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Houston

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
348. AtHomeInTX
4:47 PM GMT on December 05, 2011

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Good News from South Central Texas, On October 8th i had 9 inches for the year and 11 inches in the last 13 months. Today I am sitting at 15.13 inches for the year, the trees and grass are looking alot better, the ponds are still bone dry where I live because the rains have been light to moderate for the most part but the past 2 months were almost as wet as the prior 14.



I'm glad you got some of the wet stuff. Hope it continues...oh...forever. ;-) We've been getting mainly light rain to drizzle. But we'll take all we can get especially since it isn't evaporating into the air faster than it can form this time of year. Looks like our bit of rain has pushed off to the east but the temps have been dropping since morning.


Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 245
347. RitaEvac
4:38 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Good News from South Central Texas, On October 8th i had 9 inches for the year and 11 inches in the last 13 months. Today I am sitting at 15.13 inches for the year, the trees and grass are looking alot better, the ponds are still bone dry where I live because the rains have been light to moderate for the most part but the past 2 months were almost as wet as the prior 14.


I'm wondering if were turning a corner. To get those ponds and lakes up, gonna need some floods, to runoff into those
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
346. SPLbeater
4:34 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
the JTWC really oughta issue warnings every 6 hours, not 12 lol....data gets old in my book xD
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
345. Patrap
4:32 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Quoting goodsign:
Remember Irene? Dr. Masters, you must know that everyone who reads this blog has some salience. Therefore I must assume that you are loosing it a bit. Please try to keep some level of credibility.


Please try and read the entry sport.

Dr Masters didnt write dis un.

Oh and, try the "Phish" too.

And please note. It's "L-o-s-i-n-g"




LoL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
344. bohonkweatherman
4:27 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Good News from South Central Texas, On October 8th i had 9 inches for the year and 11 inches in the last 13 months. Today I am sitting at 15.13 inches for the year, the trees and grass are looking alot better, the ponds are still bone dry where I live because the rains have been light to moderate for the most part but the past 2 months were almost as wet as the prior 14.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
343. Skyepony (Mod)
4:18 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Update on the Brazillian oil spill..

An oil spill by Chevron off the southeast coast of Brazil has resulted in an oil leak of more than 3,000 barrels into the Atlantic Ocean. Since the spill, Chevron has been banned from drilling for oil in Brazil until an investigation into the site of the leak is completed. One of the largest deepwater heavy oil projects in the world was recently discovered in the Frade Field off the Brazilian coast. The well that was the site of the leak is one of Chevron's “biggest capital investments,” according to the company's website. The Frade Field is estimated to have a minimum reserve worth of 50 billion barrels of oil. George Buck, the chief operating officer for Chevron's Brazilian division, told the Associated Press that the spill occurred because Chevron underestimated the pressure in an underwater reservoir. This underestimation caused crude oil to rush up a bore-hole and eventually escape into the surrounding seabed. Oil has leaked through at least seven narrow fissures on the ocean floor, all within 160 meters of the wellhead.

Brazil's Environment Ministry (IBAMA) has fined Chevron nearly $28 million, and the company could face five or six times that amount in fines based on the findings of IBAMA. Andre Obata, a sophomore from Brazil majoring in ICS-Communications explained, “IBAMA is in charge of protecting the environment in Brazil, and they already charged the company a lot of money and made them cease drilling. If they look into it and find that a lack of responsibility caused the leak, then I think they should shut down Chevron's drilling. I don't think that oil extraction is a bad thing because we need it, but if they aren't doing all their safety checks then they shouldn't be drilling.” Officials from the ministry have criticized Chevron and the regulatory agency for not fully sharing information about the spill early on, and not having proper emergency equipment on hand to deal with the spill. Chevron has taken full responsibility for the spill, but denies the accusations. Fabio Marques, a sophomore from Brazil majoring in supply chain management and information systems, said “If Chevron cannot drill safely, then the government should reevaluate Chevron's eligibility to drill. Chevron waited ten days before notifying the Brazilian government of the spill, and didn’t do anything about it.”

The drilling contractor is Transocean, the owner of the Deepwater Horizon rig that BP Oil Company was leasing at the time of last years oil spill. Currently the spill is confined to less than two square miles. “This is a huge test for Brazil. Being one of the richest nations in oil,” said Marques, “Brazil will have to know what to do to protect the environment. As one of the leading nations in oil they will need to be responsible for protecting the environment. This will be a huge test for the government.”
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38171
342. RitaEvac
4:13 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
Finally some decent rain for ya.


Over the past 2 months we've been receiving some wetting rains. Hopefully this will continue into this month and next.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
341. hydrus
4:06 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:
Secondary push of cold air now from San Antonio to Austin, heading for coast.

Another disturbance is expected to bring light precip along the TX coast Wednesday, gonna be a cold miserable misty wet rain coming. Classic winter weather along the TX coast
Finally some decent rain for ya.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
340. Skyepony (Mod)
4:02 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Quoting hurricane23:


Short wave trof passing through is the reason for the fast moving showers across southern Florida this evening. Other then some weak frontal passages No real cold weather to speak of for Florida with the sub-tropical ridge parked over us in days 7-10. Making plans for a warm Christmas holiday.


I'm planning on a warm holiday too. Just noting the not so dry dry season. These short wave trofs have helped.. The wind direction is a big factor, in this switch. & like I said if it gets cold enough (like this winter sometime). We are really overdue for a frost free winter.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38171
339. RitaEvac
3:52 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Secondary push of cold air now from San Antonio to Austin, heading for coast.

Another disturbance is expected to bring light precip along the TX coast Wednesday, gonna be a cold miserable misty wet rain coming. Classic winter weather along the TX coast
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
338. RitaEvac
3:48 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Teens in the TX panhandle, very cold air penetrating south
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
337. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:05 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET December 5 2011
==============================

1. Currently monitoring Severe Tropical Storm "Alenga"

2. Tropical disturbance located at 10:30Z near 16.2S 70.4E. ASCAT data along with latest satellite
imagery show a well defined LLCC associated with rather weak convective bands. Winds are in the 20-25 kts range and MSLP is estimated at 1001 hPa. The system is still slowly drifting southwards but should curve westwards soon on the northern edge of a building subtropical ridge. Within favorable atmospheric conditions (low vertical wind shear under the upper level ridge) but over waters with somewhat limited heat potential (26-27C at the surface), some slow development is possible within the next few days. Inhabitants of Rodrigues island should closely monitored the
evolution of this system.

For the next 72 hours, the potential for the development of a new tropical depression is fair to
good
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45601
336. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:04 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ALENGA (01-20112012)
16:30 PM RET December 5 2011
==============================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Alenga (989 hPa) located at 12.2S 87.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 3 knots.

Storm Force Winds
====================
15 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
45 NM from the center extending up to 60 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
80 NM from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 12.7S 87.0E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 13.2S 87.7E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 15.4S 91.8E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 18.2S 97.0E - 40 knots (Depression Extratropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Alenga keeps on intensifying. SSMI microwave imagery of 1034z shows mid-level eye features and suggest a significant reduction of the RMW. With this clear signs of intensification, Alenga is now classified as a severe tropical storm.

Current motion is still a slow westward track over the northwestern edge of a subtropical ridge. As a high to mid level trough is approaching to the south between 80E and 90E. (CF water vapor imagery) and a equatorial ridge should rebuilt to the northeast of the system. Alenga is forecast to move a little within the next 24 hours before accelerating towards the southeast. All numerical weather prediction models agree with this although there is some substantial spread in the speed forecast. Current forecast is based on a consensus of all available models. On this forecast, the system should past east of 90E Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. The shear continues to weaken. Given the favorable sea surface temperatures, steady intensification at least at a climatological rate is forecast and Alenga could become a tropical cyclone tomorrow. Thursday, an increase in vertical wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures should produce significant weakening.

The next tropical cyclone warning from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at around 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45601
335. SPLbeater
2:27 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
i think 01S might make it to 60 knots at 1500 UTC. or 65 knots. but to be a bit conservative and not go over the top, i am going with 60 knots xD
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
334. SPLbeater
2:26 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
333. StormTracker2K
1:57 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Also of note TWC did a piece on how this Fall has been the warmest or top 5 warmest in history across the NE US.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
332. StormTracker2K
1:54 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Infact TX to FL could have the warmest winter on record.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
331. StormTracker2K
1:51 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Quoting hurricane23:


Short wave trof passing through is the reason for the fast moving showers across southern Florida this evening. Other then some weak frontal passages No real cold weather to speak of for Florida with the sub-tropical ridge parked over us in days 7-10. Making plans for a warm Christmas holiday.


People wanting cold Winter in FL will have to go else where this year. It is going to be a very warm December as this Sub Tropical Ridge doesn't seem to wanna break. This maybe the year where many are spending Christmas and New Years at the Beach here in FL.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
330. SPLbeater
1:18 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Good morning blog
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
329. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:01 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Quoting KoritheMan:
I know it's been a few days since I churned out Sean's report, but Fernanda's is finally here!

Tropical Storm Fernanda

August 15 - August 19

Fernanda was a tropical storm that entered the Central Pacific basin before dissipating.

a. Storm history

Fernanda's genesis is difficult to trace, but could be related to a tropical wave which moved off the coast of Africa on July 30. The wave was accompanied by a large complex of showers and thunderstorms, but this soon waned as the system failed to adapt to its new oceanic environment. The wave soon became indistinct and difficult to track. A small flareup of convection over the Gulf of Panama late on August 9 could have been related to this wave. As the wave entered the eastern Pacific early on August 10, it began to show signs of organization in the associated cloud pattern. Convection began to become more consolidated on August 12 when the system was located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and the system is estimated to have spawned a surface low during this time. Over the following two days, the convective pattern, though organized, resembled that of a bursting system, likely due to about 20 to 25 kt of easterly vertical shear being transferred to the system by a mid-level ridge. On August 15, a large burst of convection occurred, this one a bit closer to the center, resulting in the formation of a tropical depression near 2100 UTC while located about 1630 miles east-southeast of South Point on Hawaii's Big Island. The depression became a tropical storm near 1200 UTC August 16.

Fernanda initially strengthened, with well-defined banding observed late that same day. This strengthening trend, however, was short-lived, as Fernanda soon encountered a stable airmass -- only marginally warm waters (26 to 26.5C) could have also played a role. As the cyclone moved westward, convection reformed late on August 17. The burst continued, obscuring nearly all of the low-level center. This resulted in Fernanda reaching its peak intensity of 55 kt near 0600 UTC August 18. Thereafter, the cyclone began to slowly weaken. By 0600 UTC August 19, this weakening became more rapid, and Fernanda weakened to a tropical depression during this time as central convection all but evaporated. Amidst unfavorable environmental conditions, characterized by southerly shear, cool waters, and dry air entrainment, Fernanda continued to weaken, becoming a remnant low just six hours later while centered about 925 miles east-southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii.

The remnants enhanced shower activity over the Hawaiian Islands over the next several days before losing their identity in the trade wind flow about 200 miles south of Kauai on August 23.

Why don't you use your own peak or anything?

Fernanda was likely briefly a hurricane as indicated by ADT, SAB/TAFB as well as the structure of the system whatever afternoon it was. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
328. KoritheMan
8:55 AM GMT on December 05, 2011
I know it's been a few days since I churned out Sean's report, but Fernanda's is finally here!

Tropical Storm Fernanda

August 15 - August 19

Fernanda was a tropical storm that entered the Central Pacific basin before dissipating.

a. Storm history

Fernanda's genesis is difficult to trace, but could be related to a tropical wave which moved off the coast of Africa on July 30. The wave was accompanied by a large complex of showers and thunderstorms, but this soon waned as the system failed to adapt to its new oceanic environment. The wave soon became indistinct and difficult to track. A small flareup of convection over the Gulf of Panama late on August 9 could have been related to this wave. As the wave entered the eastern Pacific early on August 10, it began to show signs of organization in the associated cloud pattern. Convection began to become more consolidated on August 12 when the system was located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and the system is estimated to have spawned a surface low during this time. Over the following two days, the convective pattern, though organized, resembled that of a bursting system, likely due to about 20 to 25 kt of easterly vertical shear being transferred to the system by a mid-level ridge. On August 15, a large burst of convection occurred, this one a bit closer to the center, resulting in the formation of a tropical depression near 2100 UTC while located about 1630 miles east-southeast of South Point on Hawaii's Big Island. The depression became a tropical storm near 1200 UTC August 16.

Fernanda initially strengthened, with well-defined banding observed late that same day. This strengthening trend, however, was short-lived, as Fernanda soon encountered a stable airmass -- only marginally warm waters (26 to 26.5C) could have also played a role. As the cyclone moved westward, convection reformed late on August 17. The burst continued, obscuring nearly all of the low-level center. This resulted in Fernanda reaching its peak intensity of 55 kt near 0600 UTC August 18. Thereafter, the cyclone began to slowly weaken. By 0600 UTC August 19, this weakening became more rapid, and Fernanda weakened to a tropical depression during this time as central convection all but evaporated. Amidst unfavorable environmental conditions, characterized by southerly shear, cool waters, and dry air entrainment, Fernanda continued to weaken, becoming a remnant low just six hours later while centered about 925 miles east-southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii.

The remnants enhanced shower activity over the Hawaiian Islands over the next several days before losing their identity in the trade wind flow about 200 miles south of Kauai on August 23.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 584 Comments: 20829
327. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:11 AM GMT on December 05, 2011
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ALENGA (01-20112012)
10:30 AM RET December 5 2011
==============================================

Latest satellite imagery and analysis indicate that the tropical depression located at 05/0530z near 12.3S 87.9E has intensified into a moderate tropical storm. It has been named "Alenga". The cyclone has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots and is reported as generally moving west at about 9 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
80 NM from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
================
45 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/18 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 12.6S 87.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 13.0S 87.5E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 14.5S 90.7E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 17.0S 95.5E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================

The system has rapidly intensified during the last 12 hours, with vigorous convection started in the western semi-circle and wrapping around the center. SSMIS and WINSAT pass of this morning depicts a well defined low level center with evidence of a low level eye feature. Consequently, the system has been named "ALENGA"

Current motion is showing westward track over the northwestern edge of the STR. As a high mid level mid-latitude trough is approaching to the south and an equatorial ridge should build to the northeast of the system, Alenga is forecast to move little within the next 24 hours before accelerating towards the southeast. All numerical weather prediction models agree with this although there is substantial spread in the speed forecast. Current forecast is based on a consensus of all available numerical weather prediction models. On this forecast, the system should pass east of 90E Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. There is still little bit of east northeasterly shear this morning but it is forecast to abate soon. Given the favorable sea surface temperatures, steady intensification at least at the climatological rate is forecast and ALENGA could become a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. On Thursday, an increase of vertical wind shear and cooler sea surface temperature should produce significant weakening of the system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45601
326. SPLbeater
7:26 AM GMT on December 05, 2011
what a night, first staying up to take a blame math test....i did update my site tho xD. best go to bed before i get bored and cranky here....night all! be back around 13:00 UTC
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
325. SPLbeater
6:25 AM GMT on December 05, 2011
i hate math
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
324. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:21 AM GMT on December 05, 2011
Quoting goodsign:
Remember Irene? Dr. Masters, you must know that everyone who reads this blog has some salience. Therefore I must assume that you are loosing it a bit. Please try to keep some level of credibility.


Jeff did not write this blog entry though..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45601
323. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:16 AM GMT on December 05, 2011
well, Mauritius has now named it Tempete Tropical Moderee Alenga whether RSMC Reunion ignores it or not.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45601
321. goodsign
6:10 AM GMT on December 05, 2011
I would love to know who published this for Dothan Alabama:

"Public Information Statement

Statement as of 12:40 am EST on December 5, 2011

... November had above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall
in Tallahassee...

The average monthly temperature for November recorded at the
Tallahassee Regional Airport was 61 degrees, or 0.8 degrees above
normal. The highest temperature recorded during the month was 85
degrees on November 22nd. The lowest temperature was 22 degrees on
November 12th. During the month of November, three freezes were
recorded at the Tallahassee Airport.

Rainfall for the month at the Tallahassee Regional Airport was 0.93
inches, or 2.57 inches below normal. The limited rainfall in
November only added to the yearly deficit. Year to date rainfall
through November was 30.41 inches or 24.92 inches below normal.

The outlook for December from the climate prediction center calls
for an enhanced chance of experiencing above normal temperatures
and below normal precipitation. A similar prediction exists
throughout the winter season. The average monthly
temperature for December is 53.7 degrees with normal monthly
rainfall of 4.10 inches."
Member Since: May 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
320. SPLbeater
5:59 AM GMT on December 05, 2011
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
319. SPLbeater
5:58 AM GMT on December 05, 2011
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 997.1mb/ 47.0kt

Raw T# 3.4
Adj T# 3.4
Final T# 3.1

Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
318. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:53 AM GMT on December 05, 2011


Mauritius Meteorological Service surface map identifies the cyclone.

RSMC advisory should be at 6:30 am utc..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45601
317. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:30 AM GMT on December 05, 2011


Image from Reunion METEO France

just wonder why they're ignoring this cyclone..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45601
316. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:16 AM GMT on December 05, 2011
Well, since there might be something wrong with the RSMC for the southwestern Indian Ocean....



here is Madagascar advisories..

Madagascar Meteorological Services
0:00 AM UTC December 5 2011
=================================

Tropical Disturbance
15.7S 75.3E
10 min winds: 20-25 knots
Gusts: 30-35 knots
Pressure: 1002 hPa
Dvorak T1.5

Tropical Depression
12.2S 88.0E
10 min winds: 30 knots
Gusts: 45 knots
Pressure: 996 hPa
Dvorak: T2.5
Additional Information: Increasing
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45601
315. skook
4:07 AM GMT on December 05, 2011
Anyone interested in a free premium membership to weather-underground, please see my blog!


Prepare now for next years hurricane season, and save some money during these tough times!
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 365
314. sunlinepr
4:02 AM GMT on December 05, 2011
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
313. AtHomeInTX
3:57 AM GMT on December 05, 2011

Quoting Patrap:
"Breezy" in NOLA

Weather at a Glance
Weather Station
Uptown, New Orleans
Elevation
20 ft
Station Select
Now

Overcast
Temperature
68.0 °F


Nice Brees ya got there Pat. And...umm...since y'all don't need 'em no more could you send me a couple a them bags that used to be about the place? Please!  I got the official Dallas Cowboy paint to paint the star on it.  Sigh...  I sincerely hope Jason Garret is in hiding.  Wow!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 245

Viewing: 363 - 313

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.