Storm surge barriers: the New England experience

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:22 PM GMT on November 25, 2011

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Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. hurricane on record, the strongest hurricane to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. A destructive storm surge of 13 feet (4 meters) barreled though Long Island Sound into Stamford, Connecticut, inundating the downtown region and causing heavy damage ($6 million in 1938 dollars.) Sixteen years later, a storm surge from Hurricane Carol of 1954 inundated the city again, causing $3.4 million in damage. In response to these twin storm surge disasters, work was begun in 1965 on a 17-foot high, $14 million (1965 dollars) hurricane barrier. Completed in 1969, the barrier across Stamford Harbor is high enough to protect the city from a storm surge of 14.8 feet above mean sea level. Had the barrier been in place during Hurricane Carol, the Army Corps of Engineers estimates damage to Stamford could have been reduced by 85%.


Figure 1. Bedford Street looking south towards Broad Street in Stamford, Connecticut, after the Great New England Hurricane of 1938. Image credit: stamfordhistory.org.


Figure 2. The storm surge from Category 2 Hurricane Carol in 1954 batters the Edgewood Yacht Club near Providence, Rhode Island. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

The Providence storm surge barrier
Stamford isn't the only New England city that suffered destructive storm surges from the 1938 and 1954 hurricanes. The 1938 hurricane brought a storm surge that covered the commercial district of Providence, Rhode Island with 8 feet (2.5 m) of water, causing $16.3 million in damage. On August 31, 1954, Hurricane Carol produced a storm surge of up to 14.4 feet (4.4 m) in Narragansett Bay, surpassing that of the New England Hurricane of 1938. The resulting storm surge flooded downtown Providence with 12 feet (3.7 m) of water. Some entire coastal communities were nearly destroyed, and damage was estimated at $25.1 million. In response to the devastation wrought by these storms, a $15 million hurricane barrier 25 feet (7.6 m) high was built across the 1000-foot (300 m) entrance to Providence Harbor between 1961 - 1966.


Figure 3. A ship passes through the Providence, Rhode Island storm surge barrier. Image credit: Douglas Hill, EngScD, P.E., Stony Brook University.

The New Bedford storm surge barrier
New Bedford, Massachusetts lies near the end of a narrow bay, and narrow bays and river estuaries can act as funnels that focus storm surges to extreme heights if the hurricane's direction of motion is aligned so that the surge propagates up the bottleneck. In fact, the shape of the coast near New Bedford makes it the most vulnerable portion of the U.S. coast for a hurricane storm surge. The highest theoretical storm surge produced by NOAA's SLOSH model for the U.S. is 38.5 feet above mean sea level, for a Category 4 hurricane hitting New Bedford. Destructive storm surges hit New Bedford during the 1938 hurricane and 1954's Hurricane Carol, the latter storm causing $8.3 million in flood damages. A hurricane barrier 23 feet (7 m) high and 4900 feet (1500 m) long across New Bedford Harbor was completed in 1966 at a cost of $19 million (1966 dollars.) The barrier separates the New Bedford Harbor from Buzzard's Bay, and successfully kept out the 8 foot (2.5 m) storm surge from Hurricane Bob in 1991, and a 6.5 foot (2 m) surge from the January 1997 Nor'easter.


Figure 4.The 4,900 foot-long New Bedford, Massachusetts storm surge barrier as seen using Google Earth. The city of New Bedford lies to the north (top) of this image.


Figure 5.The four regions of the U.S. theoretically prone to storm surges in excess of 33 feet at the coast. These Maximum of the Maximum Envelope Of Waters (MOM) SLOSH model plots are for a maximum strength hurricane hitting at high tide. A theoretical peak storm surge of 33 - 34 feet (pink colors) is predicted by the SLOSH model for New York City near the JFK Airport (upper left), for the Big Bend region of the Florida Gulf Coast (lower right), and for the Intracoastal Waterway north of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina (lower left). The highest theoretical surge occurs at New Bedford, Massachusetts (upper right): 38.5 feet for a Category 4 hurricane.

More storm surge barriers needed
Storm surge barriers in Stamford, New Bedford, and Providence have already proved their worth and prevented damages more than the cost of their construction. For example, the Stamford barrier kept out the storm surge from the December 1992 Nor'easter, which neighboring New York City suffered storm surge flooding of it subway system and roads that caused hundreds of millions in damage. Similar barriers in the Netherlands and England's Thames River have also proved their worth, and multi-billion dollar storm surge barriers are nearing completion in St. Petersburg, Russia and the Venice Lagoon in Italy. Many more such barriers will be needed world-wide in the coming decades, because of sea level rise.
Sea level rose an average of 7 inches (18 cm) during the 20th century. The 2007 report of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted global sea level rise of 0.6 - 1.9 feet (18 - 59 cm) by 2100--excluding the contribution from melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Several studies published since that report predict much higher levels of sea level increase will occur if one includes the melting from Greenland and Antarctica, For example, a 2008 paper published by Pfeffer et al. in Science concluded that the "most likely" range of sea level rise by 2100 is 2.6 - 6.6 feet (80 - 200 cm.) If these higher sea level rise estimates prove correct, storm surge damage could easily double of triple, particularly if climate change makes the strongest storms stronger. A Report to Congress by FEMA (1991) estimated that existing development on the U.S. coast would experience a 36 - 58% increase in annual damages for a 1-foot rise in sea level, and a 102 - 200% increase for a 3-foot rise. Much of this additional damage would result from storm surges riding on top of heightened sea levels. As I'll report on in future blog posts in this series, even if the sea level does not rise this century, there are three locations along the U.S. coast that should immediately begin planning to install hurricane storm surge barriers: New York City, Galveston/Houston, and Tampa Bay.

Jeff Masters

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Interesting swirl around 30N 60W, retrograding SE. The GFS was developing this a few days ago but dropped it yesterday.



Loop:
Link
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850mb vorticy finally in line with 05B, Link to still image
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MECO-2

Opportunity and her Bus now in coast phase till Mars Arrival in 8 months.


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IO052011 - Tropical Cyclone (<64 kt) FIVE


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

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167. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
17:30 PM IST November 26 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over Southeast Arabian Sea.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Depression ARB04-2011 over Comorin and adjoining Maldives and Lakshadweep area moved northwestwards and lays centered over Lakshadweep area, adjoining Maldives, and Comorin area near 8.5N 75.0E, about 220 km west of Thiruvananthapuram (K erala), 210 km east-northeast of Minicoy (Lakshadweep Island), 550 km west-northwest of Colombo (Sri Lanka) and 500 km north-northeast of Male (Maldives).

The system is likely to intensify into a deep depression and subsequently into a cyclonic storm and move northwestwards during next 72 hrs.
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MECO-1 or Orbital Insertion, the next Hurdle will be to re-start the Centaur after Orbital checks, and fire to Escape Velocity from 17,500 to 25,000mph
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Launched two minutes ago.


.-.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Launched two minutes ago.
LOL
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Quoting Articuno:

About a minute left.

Launched two minutes ago.
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Quoting Patrap:
NASA - KSC Video Feeds



About a minute left.
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NASA - KSC Video Feeds


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We have the Range cleared for Launch.


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Excellent post Winter 123...Looks like we are going to have some flooding here in Middle Tennessee...
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33 minutes until launch...
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Uploaded by VideoFromSpace on Jun 27, 2011

Animated chronicle of the Mars Science Laboratory touchdown on the red planet and the science it will perform. Credit: NASA/JPL - To View More Videos About the NEW MARS ROVER - Go to: http://www.space.com/13607-curiosity-suv-mars-rove rs.html

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Mars Science Laboratory

Countdown Under Way


Live video for mobile from Ustream

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153. xcool


gfs 6Z MODEL
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Floods expected to strand 1800 people

RISING floodwaters are expected to leave 1800 residents in a northern NSW town stranded for five days as emergency crews prepare to dispatch supplies by helicopter.

Heavy rainfall across NSW has already claimed the life of a three-year-old boy, who drowned early on Saturday afternoon (AEDT) when he was swept into a stormwater drain at Bingara.

By early Sunday morning, the Namoi River is expected to reach 6.7 metres, which the State Emergency Service (SES) says will leave 1800 residents at Wee Waa stranded until Thursday.

"This is a very slow flood. Because it's so flat, it stays around for quite a long time," SES spokesman Phil Campbell said.

No one had been evacuated from the area, but Mr Campbell said the SES aircraft crews would change their focus from rescue operations to supplying people with food and essentials.

At Moree, about 90km northeast of Wee Waa, 400 residents have been warned they may be asked to evacuate as swollen rivers gradually inundate the floodplains.

About 50 people are already isolated on properties around Moree.

The weather bureau is predicting that Gwydir River tributaries, at Mehi River and Yarraman Bridge, will peak at 10 metres on Sunday night, the highest level since January 2001.

"They're now assessing what effect that will have and whether that will require a full evacuation," Mr Campbell said.

Heavy rain hit the state for 24 hours into the early afternoon on Saturday, also stranding 400 people southwest of Coffs Harbour, on the north coast.

Since Thursday, the SES has rescued 10 people trapped in cars as they attempted to drive through floodwaters, with eight of the call-outs in the state's north.

A helicopter was used to rescue a husband and wife who had become bogged in a tractor near Moree and were forced to spend the night outside.

Moderate flooding is also expected at Tamworth on the Peel River, and flood warnings are also in place for the Macintyre, Macleay and Bellinger rivers.

A severe weather warning was cancelled early on Saturday afternoon.

Meanwhile, on the NSW South Coast, an evacuation warning has been downgraded for residents of 18 properties below Jerrara dam, inland of Kiama, where there were concerns the dam might overflow if there was any more rain.

A ceasing of rain has seen the alert level moved from amber to a less severe white level.

The SES received around 720 calls for help since heavy rains began falling across the state on Friday, with 400 volunteers on hand to help with leaky roofs and fallen branches.
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Rain until Christmas, says the Bureau of Meteorology

SYDNEY'S unseasonal deluge has been blamed on a freak tropical rain system which swept across NSW last week, resulting in record rainfall in some parts of the state.

And despite some brief respite from the wet, with the skies clearing yesterday, meteorologists expect the gloomy weather will continue to hang over the state throughout the summer.

Chris Webb, from the Bureau of Meteorology, said the past week's heavy and relentless showers had been caused by a slow-moving tropical low pressure system -- so slow-moving, in fact, it dumped more rain on Sydney in the past six days than the total average for November.

"(The low has) hardly been moving, now we're going to get something a little bit more typical and so all the systems will start to move slowly eastward again," Mr Webb said. "The average Sydney rainfall is 83mm for November so we beat it this past week."

By yesterday morning there had been 90mm of rain in the city since Monday, with some dams at 80 per cent capacity.

The Blue Mountains catchment had the highest falls with 75mm recorded, followed by Woronora with 55mm. Warragamba and the Upper Nepean recorded 40mm.

Flash flooding warnings were issued for the Northern Tablelands, Northwest Slopes and Plains, and the Hunter and mid-North Coast of NSW. There was also a major flood warning for the Gwydir River in Moree and a moderate to major warning for the Namoi River in Gunnedah.

But by midday, the clouds had cleared and the temperatures soared. From a morning maximum of 21 degrees in Penrith, the mercury climbed to 32 in the afternoon, while the city reached 27.

But Weather Channel's chief meteorologist Dick Whitaker said the fine weather would only last until about Wednesday, when another low pressure trough developing out west moves eastwards.

"We're not looking at a heavy rain event like we're having now, but Wednesday, Thursday, Friday should be wet to some degree," he said.

It would take time for the river systems to clear so flood warnings would remain in place for the next few days.

Temperatures were likely to remain in the 20s today, with highs of 26 for the city and 28 out west.

Tuesday will be warmer, with temperatures in the west hitting the low 30s, but a breeze in the city keeping highs there to 27. The days will become cooler by Wednesday, with low 20s predicted for Thursday and Friday.
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
736 am CST Sat Nov 26 2011


Previous discussion... /issued 410 am CST Sat Nov 26 2011/


Short term...

biggest impacts of the forecast will be over the next few days as a strong cold front sweeps through the area. Had been having significant issues with model solutions but seem to be finally having decent agreement. From 24 hours ago...GFS has slowed down and changed from open to closed low as the trough swings across the southeastern Continental U.S.. the European model (ecmwf)...other end of the spectrum...has sped up some and now shows a more progressive solution than before.

The forecast is a compromise of these models. Infrared imagery currently showing steady stream of clouds moving in from the Gulf...indicative over Lower/Middle level moisture moving in. Should see continued saturation of the sounding this morning and would see even more if an 18z was done.
By that time...precipitation water values should be well above inch and a half.

Expecting increasing coverage mainly along the western half of the County Warning Area of mostly showers at that time around middle day and maybe even a few thunderstorms in the mix.
Storm Prediction Center has increased outlook threat to slight risk for mainly McComb to New Orleans and westward. Thinking is that this will be a marginal event at best for our area.

Looking at model soundings shows that its not
a zero threat as srh of less than 300m2/s2 will exist from weak low level shear. Local/S will be quite low as expected. The problem is
that instability will be very limited with little cape surface based or middle level. Bulk shear values and 500mb wind speeds are also bare
minimum for severe weather at 30kts and 40kts respectively.

Am liking NCEP WRF 00z run which shows early afternoon cells moving south to north pre frontal early afternoon and then a broken line as the boundary moves across.


Long term...

below normal temperatures look to stay in place for much of next week. Models suggest a secondary weaker trough will follow in the same path as the aforementioned system middle to late this week.

Timing difference shows a Wednesday to Thursday frontal passage. No time for return flow so this will be a dry front. Not thinking much cooler if any
behind the front...just prolonging cool period.

During this week...expect highs starting in the middle 50s Monday and then hovering in the lower 60s for the remaining days. Lows middle 30s to
middle 40s.


Meffer


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Quoting AussieStorm:
I have put the stream for the NASA Mars Rover2 launch on my new Blog.
i got it on big screen right out the front window
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i think these kind of projects the doctor is talking about in his blog are a great idea. these depression times could use projects like this trying to get people back to work.
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I have put the stream for the NASA Mars Rover2 launch on my new Blog.
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The passage of BlackFriday left few survivors in its wake.
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D-E-A-D--B-L-O-G
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Watch out for the seasonal flu.... Link

New flu found in Iowa raises concern

November 26, 2011- IOWA - A new type of flu virus has afflicted three children in Iowa. This virus has been linked to pigs in the past, but these new cases appear to have been spread from person to person. Dr. Patricia Quinlisk, medical director for the Iowa Department of Public Health, said that the children did not become seriously ill. The children live in rural Webster and Hamilton counties. There is concern about a potentially greater outbreak of the flu because the swine origin A/H3N2 virus was detected in patients who hadnt had contact with animals. Quinlisk said, We have pretty good evidence of person-to-person spread None of the children or anyone around them had exposure to swine, turkeys or other sources. The new H3N2 virus appears to have acquired a gene that might make it more transmissible from H1N1, the flu that sparked 2009s so-called swine flu pandemic. Officials with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had previously detected seven cases of this strain of the flu in humans. Genetic parts are often swapped by flu viruses. Officials suspect that the new virus was created when a pig became infected with the H1N1 virus and the H3N2 virus at the same time. The new virus combines elements of avian, human, H1N1 and swine flu viruses together into what scientists call a recombinant virus. Since the first new H3N2 case was found in a child in Indiana in July, there have been cases found in Pennsylvania, Maine and Iowa. Health officials stressed that there is no cause for panic over the Iowa cases of H3N2. Symptom of the H3N2 flu are similar to those of the regular seasonal flu, including cough, fever, fatigue, loss of appetite and body aches.
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141. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
11:30 AM IST November 26 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over Southeast Arabian Sea.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Depression ARB04-2011 over Comorin area and neighborhood moved west-northwestwards and lays centered over Comorin and adjoining Maldives and Lakshadeep area near 8.0N 75.5E, or about 150 km south-southwest of Thiruvananthapuram (Kerala), 300 km east-southeast of Minicoy (Lakshadeep Island), 500 km west-northwest of Colombo (Sri Lanka) and 500 km north-northeast of Male (Maldives).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards across Lakshadweep area and intensify into a deep depression during next 48 hrs.
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140. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
8:30 AM IST November 26 2011
=================================

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system center. The ship near 7.5N 75.5E reported surface low pressure of 1002.8 hPa with winds of 23 knots. The 24 hours pressure tendency is about 3 hPa over Kerala and Lakshadweep area.

According to satellite imageries, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. The convection clusters have merged into each other and has organized and deepened during past 24 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -85C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area between 6.5N to 10.0N and 71.0E to 76.0E and moderate to intense convection over extreme south Tamil Nadu, south Kerala, and rest southeast Arabian Sea, Maldives, and Lakshadweep area.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude more than 1. As per the dynamical and statistical models, it would lie over the same phase or phase 3 during next 3-4 days. Phase 2 and 3 are favorable for genesis and intensification of the system over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 28-29C. The ocean heat content is less (70-80 kj/cm2) over southeast and east central Arabian Sea and less than 40 kj/cm2 over west central and north Arabian Sea. The relative vorticity at 850 hPa level and upper level divergence are favorable for intensification. The vertical win shear of horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is low to moderate (10-20 kts). There is negative (5-10 kts) 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear around the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 14.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation over southeast peninsular India and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal.
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Boy drowns, hundreds stranded by rising floodwaters in northern NSW



A YOUNG boy has drowned, ten people were rescued and at least 450 people cut off by rising floodwaters in northern New South Wales today.

Emergency services mobilized after the three-year-old went missing near his family's Bingara home about 12.30pm.

He was found in a nearby stormwater drain about 1pm and pronounced dead a short time later.

A major flood warning remains in place for parts of northern NSW, with the region affected by significant flooding over the past 24 hours.

Ten people rescued after becoming trapped in cars, while up to 450 people in rural properties around Moree and southwest of Coffs Harbour have been cut off. Police urged people not to drive, ride or walk through floodwater.

With rising water expected to cut off numerous rural properties, the Bureau of Meteorology issued a major flood warning for Wee Waa on the Namoi River, with moderate flooding also expected at Tamworth on the Peel River.

An SES spokeswoman said the flooding is expected to cause extensive isolation of rural properties.

"We are expecting the conditions to ease. It's just more a case of those properties that have been isolated in those rural areas . . . they are not expected to be clear by Thursday next week," she said.

Meanwhile, on the NSW south coast an amber alert is in place for residents below Jerrara dam, inland of Kiama, with concerns it may fail if there is any further rainfall.

While the small number of residents living below the dam should still be prepared to evacuate, rain had cleared in the area making an "overtop" unlikely.

"At this stage it's just more monitoring and giving people a heads up," she said.

Heavy rain deluged the northern townships of Moree, Narrabri and Boggabri overnight, trapping motorists in their cars and swamping rural properties.

A NSW State Emergency Service (SES) spokesman said 10 people were rescued from their cars after attempting to drive on flooded roads in the region.

A helicopter was used to rescue two people who had become bogged in a tractor near Moree.

The SES received around 300 calls for help overnight in the Sydney and Hunter Valley region. Most of the calls were for help with things like leaking roofs or fallen trees.



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138. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
8:30 AM IST November 26 2011
=================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Latest satellite imagery indicates that a depression has formed over Comorin area and neighborhood. Depression ARB04-2011 is located at 7.5N 76.5E, or about 120 km south-southwest of Thiruvananthapuram (Kerala), 400 km east-southeast of Minicoy (Lakshadeep Island), 400 km west-northwest of Colombo (Sri Lanka) and 500 km north-northeast of Male (Maldives).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards across Lakshadweep area and intensify into a deep depression during next 48 hrs.
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Sorry, can't sleep and meant to post about the Caribbean blob too. I see a broad rotation and it looks like convection is consolidating to the NE of panama (currently, the only red on this map.


It's moving almost due east. Reminds me of wrong way lenny. except further south. Shear will be less there, not sure about water temps. GFS supports development. Climatoligy must factor into those models and tell them development isn't likely, so It's really saying something if there's a storm just NE OF the islands middle of next week. But we shall see...
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NWS Greenville-Spartanburg SC

Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
as of 225 PM Friday...the medium range guidance continues to be split
into two main camps...a more progressive solution among the NCEP
produced guidance...and a more southern and slower closed low solution
among the Canadian/ecm cluster. The currently preferred solution
will be a compromise between the camps...with the slower
international model cluster now getting slightly more weight than
previously given the consensus high amplication of the overall
longwave pattern. This makes for an extremely low confidence
forecast on all elements Monday night through Wednesday. If this solution
holds...a surface wave should track NE along the Appalachians ahead
of a southern stream low of indeterminate strength Monday night into Tuesday.
Rapidly cooling profiles with the low passage will allow ptype to
switch over from rain showers to snow showers along the southern
Appalachians...especially at higher elevations. Strong northwest flow
moisture would then set up behind the main upper trough passage Tuesday
night into early Wednesday. Dry high pressure would briefly build into Thursday
before a swift dry frontal passage arrives toward the end of the week. It is
conceivable that the western NC mountains could see accumulating snowfall
from the passage of this system...
but confidence remains very low on
the timing and any amounts.
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NWS Peachtree City, Georgia

Long term /Sunday night through Friday/...
/issued 230 PM EST Friday Nov 25 2011/
uncertainty continues into next week as even the GFS now shows
some wrap around potential
for the area Monday evening into the
overnight hours. 850 temperatures go to -4c to -6c during this time frame
but may take a while for surface wet bulbs drop significantly.
Newest European model (ecmwf) has more potential Tuesday into Tuesday night but depends on
low deepening significantly aloft. Given enormous
differences...will just advertise 10 to 15 probability of precipitation for now and keep
as liquid for another run. With some lessening of differences this
run...we may see additional agreement with subsequent runs
allowing for more confidence with forecast.
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I am liking late season Dr. M blog. Can just talk about the Indian and southern hemisphere seasons, and random off topic things. I read all the comments and I have a few things to say. I should have been asleep about an hour ago...

I was surprised how we have barely had any storms in the Indian this year. I realize the season is kind of split in two. Active around May and around November. But there was nothing earlier this year. What are the reasons for this?

Anyway, that is 5b's forecast track.


Which brings me to my second point. Another poster mentioned this but I've always wondered it myself. Strangely storms don't like to go in the "seas" in the NW Indian ocean. I think its due to steering patterns not supporting it, and Dry air from all the deserts.

So we have gulf of Oman on the north and Gulf of Aden (leading to the Red Sea) on the west.


Up until a few years ago it was unheard of for storms to approach these gulfs but it's been happening more and more. On the whole planet storms seem to be spreading out on where they can form. So here is every storm that formed 1970-2005. You can see one traversed the entire gulf of Aden but I don't know off hand which one that is.


2006 is about when I got interested in tracking Indian ocean storms, both North and South. Since 2006 a number of storms have entered these untouched areas.

Gonu (2007), a textbook storm on satellite, but they usually don't have storms this strong in the Arabian sea. Also it went into the Gulf of Oman which hasn't happened in many decades, if ever.




Yemyin (2007), very weak but a huge rainmaker. There was so much moisture it survived the entire Indian peninsula and reformed along the north Arabian Sea coast where no storms have been 1970-2006. Caused many deaths in Afghanistan.



03A (2008), Entered the gulf of Aden but was pulled north into land before making much progress.


(Tilt your head to the left. Perfect hurricane symbol!

Bandu (2010), Again a rare storm entering the gulf of Aden. I assume it dissipated due to dry air and cold water upwelling (It was barely moving).



Phet, another "rare" extremely strong arabian storm. Also rare because it entered the gulf of Oman.




This year, early November, Keila stalled near Oman then moved WSW along the coast and dissipated just before making it into the gulf of Aden.

Sorry, I didn't intend for this to be so long! I will make it into a blog post someday, after more research...
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NWS Little Rock, Arkansas

Long term...Tuesday through Friday...
a complicated upper flow pattern is resulting in above average
uncertainty in the long term forecast today.
The main concern in the long term will be a potential upper low that
could still be lingering just east of the state at the start of the
long term period. The question today is whether to base the forecast on
NAM/GFS runs or European model (ecmwf)/candadian model solutions. The GFS and
NAM... allow the upper wave responsible for the Sat system to move
well east of Arkansas before closing off as an upper low over the Ohio
Valley early next week. Meanwhile...at the same time...the Gem and
European model (ecmwf) both close off an upper low over northern la/southern Arkansas. The GFS is the
furthest east of the gefs members with the location of the closed
upper low...with most ensemble members showing a solution closer to
the European model (ecmwf)/Gem scenario. Will lean toward the European model (ecmwf)/Gem solution...
increasing cloud cover on Tuesday...but not yet introducing probability of precipitation.
Interestingly...low level thermal profiles in the European model (ecmwf)/Gem could
support a bit of tsnow if we were to see any precipitation.
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Re: storm surge barrier for Galveston/Houston.

Due to the low elevation coastline, the barrier would have to be 185 miles long to protect all of the area. Most of the area protected is marshland/wildlife refuges.

Recent proposals have instead focused on protecting only downtown Galveston and much of Houston/Harris County.
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NWS Memphis, Tennessee

SOMETHING INTERESTING AND PARTICULARLY CONCERNING OF NOTE...THE 00Z NAM DEPICTION OF THE LOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOWS A VERY NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM OVER ALABAMA PUSHING NORTHWEST OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SUB 537 DAM 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND SUB 1290M 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT SNOW WITHIN THIS BAND. DEEP OMEGA AND A PERSISTENT...NEARLY STATIONARY BAND WOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH. OBVIOUSLY HARD TO BITE ON THIS PARTICULAR SOLUTION...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE FOLLOWED IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SINCE IT IS ONLY ABOUT 48 HOURS AWAY AND THERE IS A REAL POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
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Models actually seem more interested in the T-wave approaching the Eastern Caribbean. May be the instigator with the area of disturbed weather to the west.



GFS
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Well, I guess it is just you and me, Grothar.

Grothar? ..... Grothar???

sigh
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
Is it time to put the blog to sleep yet?

Hey, Grothar. You better post fast. The blog just died. ;-)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Hello!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
Quoting sar2401:


Well, it's 10:30 CST and it looks like your <10% is now about ~0%. :0 We are going to the Bahamas this coming week on a cruise and it looks like we'll only have highs in the low 70's and lows around 60 for a few days. I'm pretty sure the tropical storm season is over, no matter how hard one wishes up a depression.


you wanna stay set on making it look like i want a depression you can screw yourself. i am stating that if anything was to be noticed, that would be the outcome
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Go to bed.


i dont wanna, lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481

Quoting Patrap:
Geaux Sneaux !!!

Yeah, right. Snow in Central Louisiana in late November???

I mean, we've had snowfall in South Louisiana every year for the last 3 years...but this early???

When the NWS in Lake Charles or Baton Rouge/New Orleans starts mentioning the possibility of snow, then I will start believing that. Until then, it's all model prediction.


Anthony
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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