Storm surge barriers: the New England experience
Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. hurricane on record, the strongest hurricane to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. A destructive storm surge of 13 feet (4 meters) barreled though Long Island Sound into Stamford, Connecticut, inundating the downtown region and causing heavy damage ($6 million in 1938 dollars.) Sixteen years later, a storm surge from Hurricane Carol of 1954 inundated the city again, causing $3.4 million in damage. In response to these twin storm surge disasters, work was begun in 1965 on a 17-foot high, $14 million (1965 dollars) hurricane barrier. Completed in 1969, the barrier across Stamford Harbor is high enough to protect the city from a storm surge of 14.8 feet above mean sea level. Had the barrier been in place during Hurricane Carol, the Army Corps of Engineers estimates damage to Stamford could have been reduced by 85%.
Figure 1. Bedford Street looking south towards Broad Street in Stamford, Connecticut, after the Great New England Hurricane of 1938. Image credit: stamfordhistory.org.
Figure 2. The storm surge from Category 2 Hurricane Carol in 1954 batters the Edgewood Yacht Club near Providence, Rhode Island. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.
The Providence storm surge barrier
Stamford isn't the only New England city that suffered destructive storm surges from the 1938 and 1954 hurricanes. The 1938 hurricane brought a storm surge that covered the commercial district of Providence, Rhode Island with 8 feet (2.5 m) of water, causing $16.3 million in damage. On August 31, 1954, Hurricane Carol produced a storm surge of up to 14.4 feet (4.4 m) in Narragansett Bay, surpassing that of the New England Hurricane of 1938. The resulting storm surge flooded downtown Providence with 12 feet (3.7 m) of water. Some entire coastal communities were nearly destroyed, and damage was estimated at $25.1 million. In response to the devastation wrought by these storms, a $15 million hurricane barrier 25 feet (7.6 m) high was built across the 1000-foot (300 m) entrance to Providence Harbor between 1961 - 1966.
Figure 3. A ship passes through the Providence, Rhode Island storm surge barrier. Image credit: Douglas Hill, EngScD, P.E., Stony Brook University.
The New Bedford storm surge barrier
New Bedford, Massachusetts lies near the end of a narrow bay, and narrow bays and river estuaries can act as funnels that focus storm surges to extreme heights if the hurricane's direction of motion is aligned so that the surge propagates up the bottleneck. In fact, the shape of the coast near New Bedford makes it the most vulnerable portion of the U.S. coast for a hurricane storm surge. The highest theoretical storm surge produced by NOAA's SLOSH model for the U.S. is 38.5 feet above mean sea level, for a Category 4 hurricane hitting New Bedford. Destructive storm surges hit New Bedford during the 1938 hurricane and 1954's Hurricane Carol, the latter storm causing $8.3 million in flood damages. A hurricane barrier 23 feet (7 m) high and 4900 feet (1500 m) long across New Bedford Harbor was completed in 1966 at a cost of $19 million (1966 dollars.) The barrier separates the New Bedford Harbor from Buzzard's Bay, and successfully kept out the 8 foot (2.5 m) storm surge from Hurricane Bob in 1991, and a 6.5 foot (2 m) surge from the January 1997 Nor'easter.
Figure 4.The 4,900 foot-long New Bedford, Massachusetts storm surge barrier as seen using Google Earth. The city of New Bedford lies to the north (top) of this image.
Figure 5.The four regions of the U.S. theoretically prone to storm surges in excess of 33 feet at the coast. These Maximum of the Maximum Envelope Of Waters (MOM) SLOSH model plots are for a maximum strength hurricane hitting at high tide. A theoretical peak storm surge of 33 - 34 feet (pink colors) is predicted by the SLOSH model for New York City near the JFK Airport (upper left), for the Big Bend region of the Florida Gulf Coast (lower right), and for the Intracoastal Waterway north of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina (lower left). The highest theoretical surge occurs at New Bedford, Massachusetts (upper right): 38.5 feet for a Category 4 hurricane.
More storm surge barriers needed
Storm surge barriers in Stamford, New Bedford, and Providence have already proved their worth and prevented damages more than the cost of their construction. For example, the Stamford barrier kept out the storm surge from the December 1992 Nor'easter, which neighboring New York City suffered storm surge flooding of it subway system and roads that caused hundreds of millions in damage. Similar barriers in the Netherlands and England's Thames River have also proved their worth, and multi-billion dollar storm surge barriers are nearing completion in St. Petersburg, Russia and the Venice Lagoon in Italy. Many more such barriers will be needed world-wide in the coming decades, because of sea level rise.
Sea level rose an average of 7 inches (18 cm) during the 20th century. The 2007 report of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted global sea level rise of 0.6 - 1.9 feet (18 - 59 cm) by 2100--excluding the contribution from melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Several studies published since that report predict much higher levels of sea level increase will occur if one includes the melting from Greenland and Antarctica, For example, a 2008 paper published by Pfeffer et al. in Science concluded that the "most likely" range of sea level rise by 2100 is 2.6 - 6.6 feet (80 - 200 cm.) If these higher sea level rise estimates prove correct, storm surge damage could easily double of triple, particularly if climate change makes the strongest storms stronger. A Report to Congress by FEMA (1991) estimated that existing development on the U.S. coast would experience a 36 - 58% increase in annual damages for a 1-foot rise in sea level, and a 102 - 200% increase for a 3-foot rise. Much of this additional damage would result from storm surges riding on top of heightened sea levels. As I'll report on in future blog posts in this series, even if the sea level does not rise this century, there are three locations along the U.S. coast that should immediately begin planning to install hurricane storm surge barriers: New York City, Galveston/Houston, and Tampa Bay.
Jeff Masters
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And 1.05" of rain Saturday
Last week, 5,000 files of private email correspondence among several of the world's top climate scientists were anonymously leaked onto the Internet. Like the first "climategate" leak of 2009, the latest release shows top scientists in the field fudging data, conspiring to bully and silence opponents, and displaying far less certainty about the reliability of anthropogenic global warming theory in private than they ever admit in public.
The scientists include men like Michael Mann of Penn State University and Phil Jones of the University of East Anglia, both of whose reports inform what President Obama has called "the gold standard" of international climate science, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
s a large coronal mass ejection arriving on this side of the world today so some extra shaking can be expected.
Winds of up to 130km an hour tore through the province...
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/109347 0--windows-ripped-from-office-building-in-calgary- windstorm
http://montreal.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/2 0111128/calgary-windstorm-southern-alberta-111128/ 20111128/?hub=MontrealHome
A friend saw 3 transport trucks blown off the highway and onto their sides...
Published November 27, 2011
SPARKS, Oklahoma – Another small earthquake has been reported in Oklahoma.
The U.S. Geological Survey says a 3.2 magnitude quake struck just before 6 a.m. Sunday about 27 miles northeast of Oklahoma City. The Logan County Sheriff's Office says no damage was reported
On Saturday, a 2.4 magnitude tremor was recorded at about 7 a.m. about 50 miles northeast of Oklahoma City near Sparks.
Sunday's earthquake is the sixth in the area since Thursday, when a 3.7 magnitude quake was recorded near Prague. Three more were recorded Friday.
A 5.6 magnitude quake, the strongest ever recorded in Oklahoma, shook the state Nov. 5. That quake damaged dozens of homes, buckled a highway and caused other damage.
Geologists say earthquakes with magnitudes of 2.5 to 3.0 are generally the smallest felt by humans.
Is anyone else watching this? Latest PR forecast has it moving east of the lesser Antilles? A front moving in over Florida should keep it well East and North of the islands should it develop.
Fortunately, the credible major media appear to be so far doing their job this time researching and asking questions before reporting. It could be because they were so badly burned after the first "climategate", printing breathless headlines proclaiming an end to warming, just before nine separate independent investigations found no merit whatsoever to the accusations of wrongdoing. No conspiring, no bullying, no silencing, and no more uncertainty than usual; just scientists doing a difficult job as well as they can under sometimes harsh circumstances.
It sure would be nice to get some of that Tennessee snow down here in Florida; we've been much warmer than normal for the past two weeks, and are still waiting for our first real cold snap of the year. I hear next week may bring some frigid air our way...
Link
Perhaps you might ...TELL US ALL... just who conducted those nine separate independent investigations?
You decry the other side for leaving details out, why not make the first move and show everybody the right way to do things, and reveal those identities.
Let the rest of the population decide, for themselves, just how independent those investigations really were, as opposed to deciding for them like you seem to be doing now.
BTW...Have you taken the time to read any of those e-mails, either the earlier or the latest versions? I have, and what I have read is a clear demonstration of dishonest science. Either their schooling has dropped to an abhorrent low, or they are just lazy.
Did they break the law? Good question.
The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 72 hrs.
According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. The convection shows slight disorganization during past 6 hours, however, it may be temporarily due to diurnal variation. The organization of the convection attained peak intensity at around 6:00 AM UTC. The lowest cloud top temperature is around -85C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area between 13.0N to 21.0N and 61.0E to 71.5E.
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The central pressure is 998 hPa and the state of the sea is very rough around the system.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation index lies in phase 3 with amplitude more than 1. As per the dynamical forecast it would lie over the same phase 3 during next 3-4 days. Phase 3 is favorable for intensification of the system over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 29C around the system and gradually decreases to north and west. The ocean heat content is (80-90 kj/cm2) over southeast and central Arabian sea and less than 40 kj/cm2 over west central and northern Arabian Sea. The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence do not show any change during past 6 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region has not changed during past 6 hours, it is moderate to high. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 20.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation over central India. As a result, the system lies in the southwestern periphery of this anticyclonic circulation in middle and upper tropospheric. However, after 24 hours, the system will move closer to west central Arabian Sea it will experience colder sea and also increase in vertical wind shear due to approaching westerly trough at middle and upper level which runs along 45.0E to the north of 15.0N. As a result if may show weakening trend after 24 hours. While some models like ECMWF suggest initial west northwest movement and then southwestwards. The GFS model shows northeastward recurvature of the system after 72 hours when the system reaches 20.0N.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
6 HRS: 15.3N 67.3E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 15.6N 66.6E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 17.2N 63.0E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 18.5N 60.5E - 30-35 knots (Deep Depression)
NOW wouldn't that open up the discussion for criticism to probe the background of every study they have done! Which, is what they do with everything THEY don't like the science they don't agree with.......LOL
Absolutely.
What is good for the goose is good for the gander.
Science is supposed to be an open book for all to see. Hiding or withholding data or deleting it is so suspicious, everyone should raise an eyebrow to that sort of conduct.
Neither side should expect to enjoy not having to be scrutinized.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET November 28 2011
=================================
During the last 24 hours, thunderstorm activity has strengthened within the oriental part of the ITCZ
between equator to 10S and 70E to 85E. At this time, it remains fluctuating and without any organization. Surface obs (buoys 23010 and 23692) along with ASCAT data of yesterday evening (1630Z) and this morning (0332Z) suggest that a weak low has formed in this area (position based on ascat data: 4.8S 80.0E). Estimated MSLP is 1006 hPa and winds are in the 5-15 kts range reaching locally 20 kt in the southern semi-circle. Initial motion seems to be rather fast at 10-15 kt towards the Southwest.
At present time, environmental conditions appear marginal with rather strong shear and poor
monsoon inflow. SST are in the 29°C range. Within the next few days, if the current
southwestwards fast moving motion continues, shear should gradually decrease (mainly south of
10S). Low level inflow should stay marginal Tuesday and part of Wednesday (weaker subtropical
ridge due to a transient mid-lat trough), but should improve significantly after that as the ridge
rebuits from the southwest associated to a forecast rather strong monsoon flow between 60E and
80E.
Development of a tropical depression is not expected Tuesday. It becomes poor to fair Wednesday
and Thursday.
Perhaps you might ...TELL US ALL
http://www.unep.org/pdf/PressReleases/Project_on_ Climate_Science_review.pdf
I am not so techie as some, but do copy and paste the link above.
I have a big, wide, mean independent streak, so I do my own research instead of taking what I have heard as the literal truth. A quick google search will reveal arguments for both sides. Always check for yourself.
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Regardless, the UN is hardly what anyone could possibly call an unbiased source or any form of information regarding the subject of climate or its effect on mankind. Which leads to my previous point, we need to be very careful in our selection of sources that we, personally, deem as reputable and dependably not biased.
This what we all should have been doing a long long time ago. The job of the media should be to draw our attention to a particular issue and then it should be OUR responsibility to check it out for ourselves.
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