A strange 2011 Eastern Pacific hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on November 23, 2011

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The Eastern Pacific's late season surprise, Hurricane Kenneth, is falling apart nearly as fast as it intensified. Kenneth, now a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds, was a powerful Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds yesterday, and was by far the strongest hurricane to appear so late in the year in either the Eastern Pacific or Atlantic Oceans. Kenneth is moving over colder water and into a region with higher wind shear, and will continue to deteriorate over the next few days. Kenneth is not a threat to any land areas.


Figure 1. GOES-West satellite image of Hurricane Kenneth taken at 11 am EST November 22, 2011. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

The 2011 Eastern Pacific hurricane season: a strange one
Hurricane season officially ends next week on November 30 in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and it is likely that we won't see any more named storms in either basin. It was a strange hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific, but in the opposite sense of the Atlantic's strange season. The 2011 Eastern Pacific hurricane season featured a well below-average number of named storms--eleven (fifteen is average). However, all but one of these storms reached hurricane strength, the highest proportion of hurricanes in a single season ever recorded. Six of the hurricanes became intense hurricanes, double the normal. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. It is common for an Eastern Pacific hurricane season to have fewer named storms than usual during a La Niña year, like this year. It is unusual to have so many hurricanes and intense hurricanes in a La Niña year. The only La Niña years to record so many intense hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific were 1971 and 1985 (six and eight intense hurricanes, respectively.) The strongest Eastern Pacific storm of 2011 was Hurricane Dora, which topped out as a Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds. The deadliest cyclone was Tropical Depression 12-E, which made landfall near the Mexico/El Salvador border on October 13. At least 105 people died in Central America due to TD 12-E's flooding rains. El Salvador recorded an astonishing 1.51 meters (4.96') of rain in a ten-day period due to TD 12-E and its remnants.


Figure 2. Tracks from the 2011 Eastern Pacific hurricane season.

Have a great holiday weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Friday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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241. Neapolitan
5:02 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Quoting trunkmonkey:
This link will probably get me band from the site, but here goes.

This is the stolen E-mails from Climatologist.
referring Global warming!

http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2011/11/sorting-t hrough-stolen-uae-emails.html

Stealing emails, removing them from the context of the thread(s) of which they're a part, doing keyword searches to find incriminating-sounding words, removing them from the context of the individual messages of which they're a part, then presenting those snippets altogether on a blog post strikes me as extremely dishonest. But even with all that, the "most incriminating" snippets don't look at all "evil". For example, this:

"I thought I’d play around with some randomly generated time-series and see if I
could 'reconstruct' northern hemisphere temperatures.
[...] The reconstructions clearly show a 'hockey-stick' trend. I guess this is
precisely the phenomenon that Macintyre has been going on about."


So, a scientist admits that he created a graph out of randomly-selected (that is: not cherry-picked) temperature data, and those "pure" data show a warming consistent with the so-called hockey-stick. So what's the problem?

This sad attempt at poisoning the well will fail more spectacularly than even the first.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 14179
240. TropicalAnalystwx13
5:02 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Nevermind, the NHC gives us the dates the low was active, when the dates when it became a Tropical Cyclone.

We will have to wait until the TCR comes out to add it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33661
239. hydrus
4:58 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

Looks like it pulls in some moisture from the GOM then sits over the NE i.e Hurricane Irene devastated areas. That ain't good.

Here's what we are getting dished out here in Aus.
Relatively tranquil over the eastern half....For now..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 23875
238. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:49 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was taken done (Somebody got to it before me), because we don't know the sustained winds or pressure yet. Thus, we have to wait for the Tropical Cyclone Report before adding it.

However, I thought of something. For the winds/pressure compartment, I will add "unknown" like we do for older systems (early/mid 1900s) until the TCR comes out.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33661
237. Neapolitan
4:47 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Typical, I go to edit wiki and almost instantly, my hard work is taken down.

If that's not official enough for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season page, I don't know what is.

If someone removes a legitimate edit, re-add it, then make a note in the discussion page.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 14179
236. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:45 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Typical, I go to edit wiki and almost instantly, my hard work is taken down.

If that's not official enough for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season page, I don't know what is.

It was taken done (Somebody got to it before me), because we don't know the sustained winds or pressure yet. Thus, we have to wait for the Tropical Cyclone Report before adding it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33661
235. CybrTeddy
4:43 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Typical, I go to edit wiki and almost instantly, my hard work is taken down.

If that's not official enough for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season page, I don't know what is.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24765
234. WeatherNerdPR
4:43 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Never mind, I found it on the NOAA NWS NHC page.

As part of its routine post-season review, the National Hurricane Center occasionally identifies a previously undesignated tropical or subtropical cyclone. The NHC re-analysis of 2011 has concluded that a short-lived low that passed between Bermuda and Nova Scotia from 31 August to 3 September briefly had sufficient tropical characteristics to be considered a tropical storm. With this addition, the total numbers of storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes for 2011 (so far) are 19, 7, and 3, respectively. A complete report on this system is in preparation and should be available on the NHC web page by 30 November.

Here's the system on the NHC TWO, it got up to 60%. I wondered why this wasn't named, we assumed it was because the NHC didn't want to be seen as 'padding the numbers' by some people, which I thought was utterly ridiculous for people to assume. This should have been Tropical Storm Lee, with Maria being named in the GOMEX the same day from TD13.


This is 100% official, we are tied with 2010, 1995, and the 1887 Atlantic hurricane season.

19-7-3.

And the Florida Gale System:

According to the NHC, it's neither a tropical or subtropical storm, it's "something else".
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5726
233. trunkmonkey
4:43 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
This link will probably get me band from the site, but here goes.

This is the stolen E-mails from Climatologist.
referring Global warming!

http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2011/11/sorting-t hrough-stolen-uae-emails.html
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 648
232. AussieStorm
4:38 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15998
231. trunkmonkey
4:38 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Looks like the Western snowpack will be abundant this year, maybe Lake Mead will fill up.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 648
230. trunkmonkey
4:37 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Anyone know when the frigid polar express is coming to the Con-US?
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 648
229. trunkmonkey
4:36 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.



Be safe outthere!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 648
228. CybrTeddy
4:29 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Never mind, I found it on the NOAA NWS NHC page.

As part of its routine post-season review, the National Hurricane Center occasionally identifies a previously undesignated tropical or subtropical cyclone. The NHC re-analysis of 2011 has concluded that a short-lived low that passed between Bermuda and Nova Scotia from 31 August to 3 September briefly had sufficient tropical characteristics to be considered a tropical storm. With this addition, the total numbers of storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes for 2011 (so far) are 19, 7, and 3, respectively. A complete report on this system is in preparation and should be available on the NHC web page by 30 November.

Here's the system on the NHC TWO, it got up to 60%. I wondered why this wasn't named, we assumed it was because the NHC didn't want to be seen as 'padding the numbers' by some people, which I thought was utterly ridiculous for people to assume. This should have been Tropical Storm Lee, with Maria being named in the GOMEX the same day from TD13.


This is 100% official, we are tied with 2010, 1995, and the 1887 Atlantic hurricane season.

19-7-3.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24765
227. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:26 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
"Here are NHC's working definitions that were applied:

Tropical Cyclone - A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

Subtropical Cyclone - A non-frontal low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. Like tropical cyclones, they are non-frontal, synoptic-scale cyclones that originate over tropical or subtropical waters, and have a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. In addition, they have organized moderate to deep convection, but lack a central dense overcast. Unlike tropical cyclones, subtropical cyclones derive a significant proportion of their energy from baroclinic sources, and are generally cold-core in the upper troposphere, often being associated with an upper-level low or trough. In comparison to tropical cyclones, these systems generally have a radius of maximum winds occurring relatively far from the center (usually greater than 60 n mi), and generally have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

The October cyclone was difficult to classify, consisting of a small area of very strong (~50 kt sustained) winds embedded within a much broader environment of low pressure that was itself producing gale/tropical-storm-force winds, at least early on. The inner system possessed some of the essential characteristics of a tropical storm: it had sustained winds in excess of 34 kt, it had a well-defined center of circulation, it had a warm core, at least in the lower troposphere, and the low center itself did not lie along any frontal boundaries, at least at the time the center moved onshore. In particular, the strength, distribution, and impacts of the winds near the center of this system were indistinguishable from many other small tropical storms.

Other attributes of the system, however, argued against its classification as a tropical storm. The system's convection near the core was intermittent and of short duration, and was considered too transient to satisfy the definition's organized deep convection requirement. The transient nature of the strong inner core circulation itself also cast doubt as to whether it could be considered of synoptic scale. The vertical extent of the cyclonic circulation was limited to below about 12,000 ft, very uncharacteristic of a tropical cyclone of this strength.

We also considered whether the system should be classified as a subtropical cyclone. There were clearly mixed characteristics of extratropical and tropical cyclones present, including the presence nearby of an upper-level cold low, and the large-scale distribution of winds and convection. However, there was enough air mass contrast associated with the system to raise doubts as to whether it was truly non-frontal. The very small radius of maximum winds and occasional convection very near the center also made the system difficult to classify as a subtropical cyclone.

Nature does not always cooperate with the classification systems designed by man. There is a continuum of cyclone types in the real atmosphere, and it is often difficult to place these systems into the small number of bins that meteorologists have created for them. The 9-10 October Florida system is certainly one of these difficult cyclones. NHC’s historical record, however, requires its members to belong to either the “tropical” or “subtropical” bins, and our view in this case is that neither applies. It is simply “something else”."
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33661
226. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:24 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:




I'm confused here, have these both been confirmed by the NHC? Could you link?

Yes, the National Hurricane Center has confirmed that they will be upgrading 94L to an Unnamed Tropical Storm. Its Tropical Cyclone Report will be available by November 30.

On the other hand, they will not be upgrading the system that affected Florida early last month. They say that it did not meet the qualifications of either a tropical/subtropical system.

Go check their facebook page ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33661
225. WeatherNerdPR
4:24 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Breaking, per NHC:

The Florida Gale system will not be added as a Subtropical/Tropical system.

Why not??
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5726
224. CybrTeddy
4:22 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
National Hurricane Center image of the Unnamed Tropical Storm in September.



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Breaking, per NHC:

The Florida Gale system will not be added as a Subtropical/Tropical system.


I'm confused here, have these both been confirmed by the NHC? Could you link?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24765
223. cyclonekid
4:20 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Breaking, per NHC:

The Florida Gale system will not be added as a Subtropical/Tropical system.
WHY!?!?!?!?! Gosh they irritate me sometimes.
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
222. SPLbeater
4:19 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Tropical Cyclone Report on this Unnamed Tropical Storm will be available by November 30.


i was just looking for that, thx
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
221. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:17 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
The Tropical Cyclone Report on this Unnamed Tropical Storm will be available by November 30.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33661
220. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:15 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
National Hurricane Center image of the Unnamed Tropical Storm in September.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33661
219. AussieStorm
4:10 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
Greetings Aussie. We may have an interesting storm over the U.S. soon..I hope yall dont get whacked with all kinds of severe weather this coming year..The CMC 144 hours.Link

Looks like it pulls in some moisture from the GOM then sits over the NE i.e Hurricane Irene devastated areas. That ain't good.

Here's what we are getting dished out here in Aus.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15998
218. hydrus
4:10 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Quoting SPLbeater:
HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!!!!Im thankful for a good Wu family lol.
Happy Thanksgiving..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 23875
217. SPLbeater
4:10 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Now the NWS is giving Sunday/Monday a 50% chance of showers where i live, and those are 2 days where my gf will be here. i am not happy
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
216. SPLbeater
4:07 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
SPC says another squall line is possible on Day3 outlook. notice, POSSIBLE
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
215. weatherh98
4:07 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin:


BINGO.......YOU are 100% Correct! But, add one more...the Blog has been taken over by well you KNOW without saying (KIDS)!


Yup im ppart of that
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
214. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:06 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Breaking, per NHC:

The Florida Gale system will not be added as a Subtropical/Tropical system.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33661
213. SPLbeater
4:05 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!!!!Im thankful for a good Wu family lol.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
212. hydrus
4:00 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

It's on holiday.
Greetings Aussie. We may have an interesting storm over the U.S. soon..I hope yall dont get whacked with all kinds of severe weather this coming year..The CMC 144 hours.Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 23875
211. AussieStorm
3:53 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
The effects of La Nina have started to show again this Spring, I hope we are not in for another devastating Summer.

Heaviest rainfall in years hits inland and coastal NSW

INLAND and coastal northern New South Wales is being drenched in its heaviest rain in years with up to 100mm falling in the last 24 hours. More rain is expected today and tomorrow.

Warnings of possible flooding have been issued for at least ten areas.

"A slow-moving low pressure trough is making the most of a very moist atmosphere, bringing almost constant rain since yesterday morning. The atmosphere hasn't been this moist since at least last summer, it's about as moist as it gets," Weatherzone meteorologist Brett Dutschke said this morning.

Armidale has received 79mm in the last 24 hours, its highest daily total in 11 years. Inverell's 56mm is a three-year high.

Glen Innes has had its heaviest rain in more than two years, receiving 90mm, which also breaks a 130-year November record for daily rainfall.

Much of the region missed out on the worst of last summer's flooding which devastated parts of southeast Queensland. The best Armidale could do last summer was 53mm in February. Inverell's heaviest rain last summer was 41mm, also in February.

Wollomombi gained 108mm in the past 24 hours, its biggest downpour in more than a decade. Further east, Dorrigo also has more than 100mm so far. In the far northeast corner of New South Wales, Murwillumbah received 108mm, a one-year high and its heaviest November rain in 40 years of records.

The Bureau of Meteorology said this morning there was a greater than 70% chance of local and main river flooding developing in the Peel and Namoi River Valleys, with moderate to major flooding in the Peel Valley including Nundle and Tamworth, and moderate to major flooding in the Namoi Valley.

The Severn and Upper Macintyre Valley are under watch with minor to moderate flooding at Ashford, Inverell and downstream possible.

Minor flooding is possible in the Tweed and Brunswick Valleys, the Richmond and Wilsons Valleys, the Bellinger River Valley and at Armidale.

"Rain will ease in the region later today as the trough weakens but become heavier again tomorrow as the trough re-intensifies. Further falls in excess of 100mm are highly likely, so the flooding is going to get worse. Some places will record in excess of 200mm by the weekend. People are advised to stay away from creeks and rivers and to be careful on the roads," Mr Dutschke from Weatherzone said.

"On the weekend the low pressure trough will take the heavy rain off the east coast, so it will start to dry out. On Sunday it will be mostly sunny and generally dry."

Rain saturates southern Queensland

The heaviest rain since last summer's floods is drenching parts of southern Queensland, bringing more than 100mm of rain to some areas.

The rainfall broke an extended dry spell in many areas, such as Toowoomba which hadn't seen rain all month. It received 70mm in 24 hours, its highest rainfall total since the January floods 10 months ago. Beechmont was soaked in 102mm of rain, which is its highest rainfall total in three years.

The edge of this rain band just clipped Brisbane which saw 2mm, breaking its record November dry spell of 23 days. The heaviest rain wasn't far from Brisbane though, with Ipswich gaining 26mm.

The rainfall has eased slightly today but this won't last for long as it will re-intensify when a pool of cool air moves in on Friday. As the trough deepens, we can expect to see further heavy rainfall accumulations from the Darling Downs to the Central West. There is potential that a further 50-100mm will fall across this region on Friday.

Brisbane can be expected to escape the worst of the rain as the trough starts to weaken again into the weekend.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15998
210. AussieStorm
3:50 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Happy Thanksgiving!


What happened to my deep-south snowstorm?

It's on holiday.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15998
209. hydrus
3:43 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Quoting Grothar:


Don't listen to him SPLbeater. Army is the only way to go. Once, we had to stay at an Air Force base, and they made us sleep on sheets. They even have tableclothes in the mess hall. In the Army we did it the right way. Slept on the ground and ate on the floor. :)
Sounds like the Army spoiled ya pretty good..Happy Thanksgiving to all . :)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 23875
208. TampaSpin
3:40 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Quoting aquak9:


between the wu-mail threats (ignored by Admin)
and the bitter sarcastic posts (ignored by Admin)
the bans and removed posts (all but encouraged by Admin)

well we all left.

There now. You have something to be thankful for.


BINGO.......YOU are 100% Correct! But, add one more...the Blog has been taken over by well you KNOW without saying (KIDS)!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20450
206. Articuno
3:06 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Happy Thanksgiving!


What happened to my deep-south snowstorm?

And what happened to the blog being so active? LOL.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2564
205. PensacolaDoug
3:03 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Happy Thanksgiving!


What happened to my deep-south snowstorm?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 767
204. Articuno
2:22 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
..keep da chow line Moving, Hey, only 2 cookies per Jarhead!.

How much Jarheads are there? :)
BTW happy thanksgiving to everyone here.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2564
203. Cotillion
1:44 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:
Oceansat caught the extratropical low to the NNE of 99L. 99L is near the bottom left corner out of the sat pass..



Yeah, it's an interesting system. Gets quite strong as well:



944mb is nothing to be sniffed at. Cause winds as high as possibly hurricane force for the northern reaches of the UK over the next day or two.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
202. clamshell
1:20 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

Nice try. Just another lame attempt to discredit science and scientists on the eve of the Durban climate conference. The first batch didn't work--in fact, nine separate investigations cleared everyone involved--and that was the 'A' material; this batch is the leftovers, and it has even less chance. Not to mention that the media, realizing they didn't do their jobs the first time around, likely won't take the bait quite so easily.

You have a great Thanksgiving, too...


They were not actually cleared of any wrongdoing.

It was determined that they had not acted in a CRIMINAL manner.

No judgment was made as to the fact that they altered the data, which many of the discussions, found in the original leak, openly accepted as permissible.

Member Since: June 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 125
201. GeoffreyWPB
12:33 PM GMT on November 24, 2011
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Hope these temps for West Palm on Monday and Tuesday hold up...



EXTENDED FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY LARGE
DISPARITY BETWEEN LONG RANGE ECMWF/GFS MODELS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH DOES MOVES E BUT THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE SE U.S. WHICH DOES NOT MOVE NE `TIL TUESDAY WHEN
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS MOVES THE
UPPER TROUGH RIGHT ALONG AND THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. SO...THE ECMWF
MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH S FLA LATE MONDAY WITH THE GFS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. USING THE GFS...FORECAST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT STABLE AIR ALOFT ...SOME CAPPING...MAY PERSIST. WILL KEEP
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WILL OCCUR EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST ISSUED MAY CHANGE DEPENDING UPON DEVELOPMENT
AS AN UNCERTAINTY DEFINITELY EXISTS. SO...STAY TUNED.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11654
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Is that anything like the new vegetable?


I don't want to live on this planet anymore.
Happy Thanksgiving.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5726
Good Morning and Happy Thanksgiving.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning to all and have a great thanksgiving day.Below is this mornings discussion from the San Juan NWS.

It looks like wet times ahead for the Eastern Caribbean and a possible Tropical Cyclone in the SW Caribbean?

00Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE CWA FROM SAT
NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF
EXITING THE U.S. EAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING IS FCST TO SPLIT
OFF WITH A H5 CUTOFF LOW NOW FCST TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE WRN ATLC ON
SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO LIFT NORTH INTO
THE AREA WHILE AT THE SAME TIME INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
INVERTED SFC TROF PATTERN. IT APPEARS THAT ERN PR AND ESPECIALLY
THE USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL BE ON THE FVBRL RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK TO SUPPORT A ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN STARTING SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MON. FOR THE REST OF
PR...IT APPEARS THAT BEST CHANCES FOR SIG RAINFALL WOULD BE MON
AND TUE AS INVERTED SFC TROF PATTERN BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AS
ANOTHER DEEP TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CDFNT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A BROAD SFC LOW PRES ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN. IT IS ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES BECOMING BETTER DEFINED
THROUGH TIME AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING IT INTO A TC WITH THE
SYSTEM MEANDERING FOR SVRL DAYS NORTH OF COLOMBIA BEFORE TAKING IT
WWD TOWARD CNTRL AMERICA. BOTTOMLINE IS...THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF WET WEATHER APPEARS IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIG RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY FOR THE USVI AND THE ERN
THIRD OF PR.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Happy Thanksgiving! Hope everyone has a wonderful holiday, and takes some time to be thankful for the things we have in life.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I can't believe they say that Pizza is a vegetable. -_-

Their argument that pizza is a vegetable comes from the fact that it contains tomatoes. However, a tomato is a fruit, which, if anything, would make pizza a fruit.
The point is just because it's made out of vegetables (and a fruit...tomatoes) doesn't mean it is healthy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just finished Lee's report. Yes, I weakened him.

Tropical Storm Lee

September 1 - September 5

Lee made landfall along the coast of Louisiana as a weak tropical storm. The remnants of the storm interacted with a cold front to produce record floods over portions of the northeastern United States.

Lee appears to have developed from the southern portion of the tropical wave which spawned Tropical Storm Jose near the end of August. The wave emerged off the coast of Africa on August 18. The southern portion remained devoid of deep convection as it moved generally westward across the tropical Atlantic. Shower activity increased over the western Caribbean on August 28, but strong upper-level winds prevented significant development during this time. The wave generated a weak surface low early on August 31 as it approached western Cuba. Although strong vertical shear continued to restrict development, the low developed a well-defined surface circulation while moving across the central Gulf of Mexico. Complimented by offshore drifting buoy and oil rig reports, the low is estimated to have transformed into a tropical depression near 1800 UTC September 1 while centered about 250 miles southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana. At this time, the depression was still under the influence of westerly shear associated with a well-defined cold core low pressure system located over western Louisiana. This low also acted to ingest dry air into the cyclone circulation. The combination of these factors prevented significant intensification of the depression. Despite the harsh environmental conditions, the cyclone became a tropical storm near 1200 UTC September 2.

Lee was trapped in a col region between a large ridge over the western United States, and a secondary ridge over the eastern portion of the nation. As such, the cyclone moved moved only very slowly toward the Louisiana coast. Lee only slight intensified before moving inland, reaching its estimated peak intensity of 45 kt near 0600 UTC September 3 while centered about 100 miles south-southwest of Morgan City. At that time, satellite images and doppler radar data revealed that Lee was becoming better organized, with convection wrapping about midway through the center. This strengthening was short-lived, however, and Lee's appearance soon degraded in both satellite and radar data; however, subsequent reconnaissance data still indicated fairly strong winds at the 850 mb level.

Almost immediately after assuming its peak, Lee began to weaken as the upper low which had been plaguing the system slid southwest to a position that was just off the upper Texas coast. This placed the upper low closer to the center of the tropical storm, which gave Lee a subtropical appearance on satellite imagery, with a center that was mostly void of shower activity and significant winds. Lee made landfall on the Louisiana coast between Lafayette and Morgan City near 1200 UTC September 4 as a 35 kt tropical storm. Lee weakened to a tropical depression near 0000 UTC September 5 while passing just west of Baton Rouge, and dissipated shortly thereafter.

The remnants of the cyclone interacted with an unseasonably strong cold front that was moving across the Ohio Valley; the combination of an influx of tropical moisture from Lee's remaining inflow band, and baroclinic effects from the trough produced torrential rains and associated flooding across portions of the northeastern United States on September 6 and 7. Lee became indistinct from the frontal zone during the day on September 7 while moving into southeastern Quebec.
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194. Skyepony (Mod)
Oceansat caught the extratropical low to the NNE of 99L. 99L is near the bottom left corner out of the sat pass..

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It's that time...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11654
192. Skyepony (Mod)
It's a Thanksgiving Miracle..Windsat is alive & got a pass on 99L. Was looking shaky this morning, after coming back online but now has completed one perfect pattern around the world.


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Quoting caneswatch:


I'm part of the 99% haha


So am I. :(
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11654

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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