Category 4 Kenneth the strongest East Pacific late-season hurricane on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:43 PM GMT on November 22, 2011

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Hurricane Kenneth has intensified into an impressive Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds in the Eastern Pacific. Kenneth is by far the strongest hurricane to appear so late in the season in the Eastern Pacific; the previous record was held by Hurricane Winnie of December 5, 1983, a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. There has not been an Atlantic hurricane as strong as Kenneth this late in the season, either; the latest of the seven November major hurricanes in the Atlantic was Hurricane Kate of November 21, 1985 (120 mph winds). Since 1949, here have been just three named storms that have formed in the Eastern Pacific after November 18. These three storms were an unnamed tropical storm on November 27, 1951; Tropical Storm Sharon on November 27, 1971; and Hurricane Winnie on December 5, 1983.

Kenneth is over 27°C waters and under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could conceivably intensify further. However, I expect the storm has peaked, since it's tough for a hurricane to get much stronger than Kenneth's current intensity with ocean temperatures so close to the 26.5°C hurricane formation threshold. Satellite loops show an impressive storm with a large eye, good symmetry, and plenty of upper-level outflow. The relative lack of spiral bands and large, thick eyewall may qualify Kenneth to be a rare breed of hurricanes known as "annular". Annular hurricanes are a subset of intense tropical cyclones that are significantly stronger, maintain their peak intensities longer, and weaken more slowly than average tropical cyclones. The latest SHIPS model output indicates that Kenneth has passed the initial screening step to be considered an annular hurricane. Only 4% of all hurricanes are annular hurricanes.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Kenneth.

Unnamed tropical storm from September 2 brings the Atlantic's 2011 tally to 19
Re-analysis has shown that a tropical disturbance that formed between Bermuda and Nova Scotia on September 2 briefly attained tropical storm status, according to an article posted yesterday by Ken Kaye at SunSentinel.com, quoting NOAA's lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell. The addition of the unnamed tropical storm to the record books brings this year's tally of named storms to nineteen, tying 2011 with 2010, 1995, and 1887 as the 3rd busiest year for tropical storms. Only 2005 and 1933 had more named storms since record keeping began in 1851. An average season has just eleven named storms. Here's my blog entry from September 2 on the unnamed tropical storm:

A well-organized low pressure system with a surface circulation but limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to high wind shear is 450 miles south of Halifax, Canada. This disturbance, (94L), is headed northeast out to sea, and is being given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. 94L is under a high 25 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear is expected to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Saturday morning. However, sea surface temperature will fall from 27°C today to 25°C Saturday morning underneath 94L, and the storm will have a very short window of time to get organized enough to get a name. At this point, it's really a subjective judgement call on whether or not 94L is already a tropical storm.

In addition, the Atlantic has gained one more hurricane for the year, as Nate was upgraded to a hurricane in post-season analysis. Nate hit Mexico's Bay of Campeche coast near Veracruz on September 11 as a weak tropical storm. The storm killed five people and caused minor damage near Veracruz. Nate brings this year's tally of hurricanes to seven, one hurricane above average.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Tropical Storm Nate taken at 12:45 pm EDT Friday, September 9, 2011. At the time, Nate was a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 99L in the Atlantic moving over colder waters
In the Atlantic, Invest 99L, an extratropical storm in the middle Atlantic that is generating tropical storm-force winds, has moved over colder waters of 24°C and is looking less tropical than yesterday. The storm is moving northeastwards out to sea and over even colder waters, and is not a threat to any land areas. NHC is giving 99L a 10% chance of becoming a named subtropical storm.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Cotillion:
"Nate brings this year's tally of hurricanes to seven, one hurricane above average."

While I don't like the continual references to the long term average without qualification, it does bring up a good point. Despite the seeming saturation of tropical storms, seven hurricanes is only just below the post-95 AMO+ average of eight. Brings it into perspective a little bit.

Fresh round of hacked climate science emails leaked online.

Climategate II?


Nop. Bunch of stuff held back from the first hack. Blatant attempt to poison the water before upcoming conference.

22 November 2011 Last updated at 12:19 ET

'New release' of climate emails

By Richard Black Environment correspondent, BBC News
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Quoting HurrikanEB:


Wiki says it was Fernanda, Greg made it to 85... but yeah.


Sorry. I thought Greg was a tropical storm. Add: Must've peaked when I wasn't watching.:)

What's past is past. Today we have Kenneth, and some severe over the SE U.S.
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:


Ps. Keep your eye on the severe today!


Got it.
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72. MTWX
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I know it's a Holiday Weekend but by looking the models it appears the south is in for a hair raising weekend. Expect Norman to start highlighting some areas tomorrow as the models are coming into better aggreement now. Sorry Folks!

This run of the Euro is slow but look at the wind profiles over Miss, Ala, La, Fla Panhandle.




I see the possibility for a slight risk on Sunday, with the highest potential for damaging winds (much like the setup today). Just saying you stating SPC will likely issue a Moderate or High risk is a little out there. Kenneth has a better chance of hitting Hawaii than SPC issuing a High Risk.
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:

Greg couldn't quite cut the mustard.


Wiki says it was Fernanda, Greg made it to 85... but yeah.
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:

Greg couldn't quite cut the mustard.


I have heard that, about Greg. ;-)
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Has not every EPAC system made it to at least CAT1 this season, with the exception of 1?

Greg couldn't quite cut the mustard.

Ps. Keep your eye on the severe today!
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Quoting MTWX:

What Kool-aid are you drinkin'??


I know it's a Holiday Weekend but by looking the models it appears the south is in for a hair raising weekend. Expect Norman to start highlighting some areas tomorrow as the models are coming into better aggreement now. Sorry Folks!

This run of the Euro is slow but look at the wind profiles over Miss, Ala, La, Fla Panhandle.



Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting Articuno:

Most likely slim.
But it's always good to keep a close eye.


I would say closer to none. Too far, too much cold water in between.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Has not every EPAC system made it to at least CAT1 this season, with the exception of 1?


i reckon
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65. MTWX
Reports coming in from the Tornado Warned cell that moved through the greater Jackson area..

1715 UNK 3 NNE TERRY HINDS MS 3214 9029 ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOUSE ON WYNNDALE RD. (JAN)
1728 UNK JACKSON HINDS MS 3232 9021 TREE FELL ON HOUSE AND POWER LINES DOWN ON DONA LANE IN SOUTH JACKSON. (JAN)
1730 UNK 5 SSE PEARL RANKIN MS 3220 9007 NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. (JAN)
1738 UNK 2 SE BRANDON RANKIN MS 3226 8998 TREES DOWN ON LOUIS WILSON RD AND HIGHWAY 18 AND ALSO ONE POWER POLE. (JAN)
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Looks like there's been another release of ClimateGate emails.

A sampling via hotair, and what is this about "the cause"? Is that scientific method?:

Thorne/MetO: Observations do not show rising temperatures throughout the tropical troposphere unless you accept one single study and approach and discount a wealth of others. This is just downright dangerous. We need to communicate the uncertainty and be honest. Phil, hopefully we can find time to discuss these further if necessary [...]

Carter: It seems that a few people have a very strong say, and no matter how much talking goes on beforehand, the big decisions are made at the eleventh hour by a select core group.

Wigley: Mike, The Figure you sent is very deceptive [...] there have been a number of dishonest presentations of model results by individual authors and by IPCC [...]

Bradley: I’m sure you agree–the Mann/Jones GRL paper was truly pathetic and should never have been published. I don’t want to be associated with that 2000 year “reconstruction”.

Mann: By the way, when is Tom C going to formally publish his roughly 1500 year reconstruction??? It would help the cause to be able to refer to that reconstruction as confirming Mann and Jones, etc.

Mann: They will (see below) allow us to provide some discussion of the synthetic example, referring to the J. Cimate paper (which should be finally accepted upon submission of the revised final draft), so that should help the cause a bit.

Mann: I gave up on Judith Curry a while ago. I don’t know what she think’s she’s doing, but its not helping the cause [...]
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Has not every EPAC system made it to at least CAT1 this season, with the exception of 1?
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Quoting Cotillion:


Regardless of whatever semantics you want to use to keep yourself happy, it is still an interesting story as it backs up from a similar one two years ago.

Makes you wonder about the security. Being done over once is embarrassing, but twice just seems negligent. Unless it was leaked on purpose.

The timing of the release certainly seems to be.


FYI:

It's simply another set of the same batch of emails stolen at the same time as "ClimateGate I" which was found to be wholly absent of any wrongdoing by multiple independant investigations.

There has been no further breach and the fact these are coming out now, right before the next big climate conference screams of a desperate agenda to force the debate... but with no new mud to sling.

Sad. really sad.

--------

Kenneth is a beauty!
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Good to see some ice pack at the north pole, plenty of ice coverage and only going to expand south

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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Good news from South Central Texas. Received 1 inch of rain last 2 days total. 6 tenths last rain so things are looking up, ponds behind my house are still bone dry but my grass is looking better. Up to almost 11 inches for the year. Happy Thanksgiving early to all.


good
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59. MTWX
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Storm Prediction Center to issue a moderate to high risk for some part of the SE US Saturday, Sunday, and Sunday Night.

What Kool-aid are you drinkin'??
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Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Here's the southern end of the line creeping into Nola later.



getting close to me
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Here's the southern end of the line creeping into Nola later.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Good news from South Central Texas. Received 1 inch of rain last 2 days total. 6 tenths last rain so things are looking up, ponds behind my house are still bone dry but my grass is looking better. Up to almost 11 inches for the year. Happy Thanksgiving early to all.
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Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Ice today



Notice that while northern ice cap melts and shrinks, the southern one increases
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52. MTWX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 895
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM NOON UNTIL 500 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
PINE BELT MISSISSIPPI TO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SELMA
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MS HAS INTENSIFIED
AND ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST HOUR...AND WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF LINE WILL POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.
ALSO...ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS FORMING AHEAD OF THE LINE MAY BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
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hello!
i am back lol
the east pacific hurricane season is not over?? lol
go kenneth !
here in portugal it has been a wet november and a litle bit warm, in contrast to october that has been very warm and dry.
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Forgive debts, but hay, stay on topic please, this is a weather site.

The political blog is down the hall.

Quoting Seastep:


Not new. UN Poverty group (UNDP - United Nations Development Programme) has discussed just that and has had disagreements with IPCC, etc.

As for evil profits, this is a fun video on a deficit reduction plan:

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bye bye... ok, back to Kenneth..
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That is one good lookin' hurricane.
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EP132011 - Major Hurricane KENNETH


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

1630 UTC

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Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2179
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Storm Prediction Center to issue a moderate to high risk for some part of the SE US Saturday, Sunday, and Sunday Night.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Another Hot sticky day here in FL. This November just doesn't want to end. I think it's been warmer in November than what we had in October.

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Wow some stunning stadium affect going on with Kennith. If someone could post a good RGD shot of the eye would be much appreciated.

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Quoting Cotillion:


It could well be.

The supposed rationale for the file dump is curious. Trying to draw comparison between poverty and green energy investment. It could be done on purpose with trying to take a manufactured OWS type attitude to hide real motives. If it's really the views behind the person or people that did this, then it's rather peculiar. If poverty was really your main focus, there are far better targets. If you wanted to belittle climate change or climate scientists, there are probably more efficient ways of doing it.

Strange.

Good points.
I did not realise that new technologies would result in poverty for millions of people, as stated. This is a new slant?
I thought that the new technologies would result in fortunes being made by Evil Entrepeneurs. (unlike petroleum, apparently, where all the producers/refiners/dealers are seemingly Good Guys, and they make no profits at all).

I'm being sarcastic, in case anyone gets it wrong!

In any case, it's a silly argument for them to make.
But they will continue, no doubt.
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Anytime you see this it means trouble. Could be a nasty severe wx event looming this weekend for the Gulf Coast and SE US. Could even be some big tornadoes here in even FL especially C & N FL come Sunday Night.









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Quoting Articuno:

That's sad, thank god your ok, is there any damage in your...home? Just hope there isn't any injuries. Is there?

All is well here, Thanks.
I am 10 miles from the city.
The city is at the foot of the hills and there are several valley's that drain through the city suburbs.
Over the years, un-regulated development on the hillsides and in the valley's has created very fast run-off and the watercourses cant handle it any more.

3 years ago a friend was here for lunch.
The phone rang to say "you should come home. there is a lady's body on your front lawn along with a lot of boulders and tree-branches".
Very tragic. The lady's house was built near a watercourse, and it collapsed into the flooded stream.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Yeah, I guess the professional denialists feel the need to try attacking science again; they've got deep pockets, and their first attempt ended as a miserable failure, so why not give it another go? ;-)


It could well be.

The supposed rationale for the file dump is curious. Trying to draw comparison between poverty and green energy investment. It could be done on purpose with trying to take a manufactured OWS type attitude to hide real motives. If it's really the views behind the person or people that did this, then it's rather peculiar. If poverty was really your main focus, there are far better targets. If you wanted to belittle climate change or climate scientists, there are probably more efficient ways of doing it.

Strange.
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Excerpts from ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/11112212EP 1311_ships.txt:
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KENNETH EP132011 11/22/11 12 UTC *

....

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 KENNETH 11/22/11 12 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Quoting pottery:
" A brief, persistent shower"


Yeah, that was oddy phrased.

I don't think that word means what you think it means -- Inigo Montoya
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Quoting Cotillion:


Sad to hear. Hope no-one was seriously injured.

A brief, persistent shower? Hate to see what they call a flood.

True!
We have had some incredible downpours recently, in small areas fortunately.
Had 5" in 3 hours overhead a couple weeks ago. Like a waterfall.
The clouds and sunsets have been great!

Looks like the rainy-season is tapering off right now though.
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Quoting pottery:
Greetings.
After some major flooding in and around the city of Port-of-Spain on Saturday, clean-up crews were at work yesterday when another cloudburst in the same area created havoc again.
Rivers overflowed, Vehicles washed away, homes damaged/flooded, walls down, roads blocked.

According to the newspaper this morning, it was the result of " A brief, persistent shower".
Not sure I understand the concept of that...... but I'm working on it.

That's sad, thank god your ok, is there any damage in your...home? Just hope there isn't any injuries. Is there?
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Quoting pottery:

UPS will deliver here, you know......

;-)
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24 pottery "Greetings.
After some major flooding in and around the city of Port-of-Spain on Saturday, clean-up crews were at work yesterday when another cloudburst in the same area created havoc again.
Rivers overflowed, Vehicles washed away, homes damaged/flooded, walls down, roads blocked.

According to the newspaper this morning, it was the result of " A brief, persistent shower".
Not sure I understand the concept of that...... but I'm working on it.
"

What's to understand? The Calabash dropped its leaves then regreened to announce the start of another rainy season this year.
All hail The Calabash.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Likewise. I baked eighteen full-size pies last evening, and have a dozen more to do tonight. Thursday's my easy day... ;-)

UPS will deliver here, you know......
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Quoting pottery:
Greetings.
After some major flooding in and around the city of Port-of-Spain on Saturday, clean-up crews were at work yesterday when another cloudburst in the same area created havoc again.
Rivers overflowed, Vehicles washed away, homes damaged/flooded, walls down, roads blocked.

According to the newspaper this morning, it was the result of " A brief, persistent shower".
Not sure I understand the concept of that...... but I'm working on it.


Sad to hear. Hope no-one was seriously injured.

A brief, persistent shower? Hate to see what they call a flood.
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:


LOL.

Happy Thanksgiving, Neo.

Likewise. I baked eighteen full-size pies last evening, and have a dozen more to do tonight. Thursday's my easy day... ;-)
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....
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting Cotillion:
Fresh round of hacked climate science emails leaked online.

Climategate II?

Yeah, I guess the professional denialists feel the need to try attacking science again; they've got deep pockets, and their first attempt ended as a miserable failure, so why not give it another go? ;-)
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Quoting aspectre:
There wasn't even a ClimateGate One. A bit absurd to start with Two.


Regardless of whatever semantics you want to use to keep yourself happy, it is still an interesting story as it backs up from a similar one two years ago.

Makes you wonder about the security. Being done over once is embarrassing, but twice just seems negligent. Unless it was leaked on purpose.

The timing of the release certainly seems to be.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.