Category 4 Kenneth the strongest East Pacific late-season hurricane on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:43 PM GMT on November 22, 2011

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Hurricane Kenneth has intensified into an impressive Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds in the Eastern Pacific. Kenneth is by far the strongest hurricane to appear so late in the season in the Eastern Pacific; the previous record was held by Hurricane Winnie of December 5, 1983, a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. There has not been an Atlantic hurricane as strong as Kenneth this late in the season, either; the latest of the seven November major hurricanes in the Atlantic was Hurricane Kate of November 21, 1985 (120 mph winds). Since 1949, here have been just three named storms that have formed in the Eastern Pacific after November 18. These three storms were an unnamed tropical storm on November 27, 1951; Tropical Storm Sharon on November 27, 1971; and Hurricane Winnie on December 5, 1983.

Kenneth is over 27°C waters and under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could conceivably intensify further. However, I expect the storm has peaked, since it's tough for a hurricane to get much stronger than Kenneth's current intensity with ocean temperatures so close to the 26.5°C hurricane formation threshold. Satellite loops show an impressive storm with a large eye, good symmetry, and plenty of upper-level outflow. The relative lack of spiral bands and large, thick eyewall may qualify Kenneth to be a rare breed of hurricanes known as "annular". Annular hurricanes are a subset of intense tropical cyclones that are significantly stronger, maintain their peak intensities longer, and weaken more slowly than average tropical cyclones. The latest SHIPS model output indicates that Kenneth has passed the initial screening step to be considered an annular hurricane. Only 4% of all hurricanes are annular hurricanes.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Kenneth.

Unnamed tropical storm from September 2 brings the Atlantic's 2011 tally to 19
Re-analysis has shown that a tropical disturbance that formed between Bermuda and Nova Scotia on September 2 briefly attained tropical storm status, according to an article posted yesterday by Ken Kaye at SunSentinel.com, quoting NOAA's lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell. The addition of the unnamed tropical storm to the record books brings this year's tally of named storms to nineteen, tying 2011 with 2010, 1995, and 1887 as the 3rd busiest year for tropical storms. Only 2005 and 1933 had more named storms since record keeping began in 1851. An average season has just eleven named storms. Here's my blog entry from September 2 on the unnamed tropical storm:

A well-organized low pressure system with a surface circulation but limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to high wind shear is 450 miles south of Halifax, Canada. This disturbance, (94L), is headed northeast out to sea, and is being given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. 94L is under a high 25 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear is expected to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Saturday morning. However, sea surface temperature will fall from 27°C today to 25°C Saturday morning underneath 94L, and the storm will have a very short window of time to get organized enough to get a name. At this point, it's really a subjective judgement call on whether or not 94L is already a tropical storm.

In addition, the Atlantic has gained one more hurricane for the year, as Nate was upgraded to a hurricane in post-season analysis. Nate hit Mexico's Bay of Campeche coast near Veracruz on September 11 as a weak tropical storm. The storm killed five people and caused minor damage near Veracruz. Nate brings this year's tally of hurricanes to seven, one hurricane above average.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Tropical Storm Nate taken at 12:45 pm EDT Friday, September 9, 2011. At the time, Nate was a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 99L in the Atlantic moving over colder waters
In the Atlantic, Invest 99L, an extratropical storm in the middle Atlantic that is generating tropical storm-force winds, has moved over colder waters of 24°C and is looking less tropical than yesterday. The storm is moving northeastwards out to sea and over even colder waters, and is not a threat to any land areas. NHC is giving 99L a 10% chance of becoming a named subtropical storm.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:


Are you still getting a lot of rain down there?

As one of the Newspapers said today, the floods yesterday were the result of "Brief, Persistent showers..."

Does that answer your question?
I'm still trying to make sense of it!

But yes, plenty rain, some showers have been very heavy. Fortunately, they have been pretty localised. But when it rains like this in the Valleys it can get serious.
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Quoting pottery:
A little video taken by an friend, from yesterday.....
His p[lace was not too badly damaged, this time.



Are you still getting a lot of rain down there?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A little video taken by an friend, from yesterday.....
His p[lace was not too badly damaged, this time.

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Quoting Patrap:
Early to Rusty: .."DO NOT touch the TRIM"...


I never thought I would hear a Jarhead quote a squid!!!!!
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171. skook
If anyone is interested in getting a free premium membership to wunderground, please visit my blog!


I guess even wunderground can't resist the black Friday madness.



Thanks for the great deal, and ad free weather!
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feast your eyes, 99L. YES, it IS something
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Early to Rusty: .."DO NOT touch the TRIM"...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
just like earlier:



this will get random thumbs up
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
HOT SUMMER=COLD WINTER
COOL SUMMER=HOT WINTER

This summer was very hot there for we ought to have a colder winter
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well i was getting ready to say im bored
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I must say that you are using your colors (no. not crayons. COLORS) better now. ;-)

Looks like there is a lot of weather related activity ahead.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
Quoting StormTracker2K:
DAMM!




Language.....
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
DAMM!



Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting Seastep:


Nothing exciting. Same old same old. Could say that about every year. It is great for testing the theory.





I agree. Since the onset of Industrial Revolution we have been seeing this rise in atmospheric CO2 levels. When do you want to start testing the theory that CO2 is a greenhouse gas?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
This is something you would see in El-Nino year not La Nina.



Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
GFS puts this ULL right over NOLA.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Ouch!

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Cassini Chronicles Life of Saturn's Giant Storm

ScienceDaily (Nov. 21, 2011) - New images and animated movies from NASA's Cassini spacecraft chronicle the birth and evolution of the colossal storm that ravaged the northern face of Saturn for nearly a year.



Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9780
That eye shrinks down 70 % in the Loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
EP132011 - Major Hurricane KENNETH

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery/Loop
2130 UTC

..click image for loop

ZOOM is available, click on moving gif.

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Red from laughter.


oh.....so you sent me that link, and then started laughing at me..i get it now lol. and i could care less is the amazing thing LOL
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting hurricanejunky:
While you were sleeping...


Nothing exciting. Same old same old. Could say that about every year. It is great for testing the theory.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From simply amazing to....not so much. The eye continues to become obscured and eyewall temperatures are warming. Additionally, the cloud pattern of the hurricane is becoming increasingly disorganized.

Not so sure it will be a Category 4 at the next update...

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858
151. washingtonian115
10:10 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting SPLbeater:


lol....wait, red from laughter or somethin else? xD
Red from laughter.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16679
150. SPLbeater
10:08 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
well, it is GOOD to se the blog active again. frickin boring this time last week
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
149. SPLbeater
10:05 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm sorry I'm turning red right now.Lol.Eh no I'm not being serious.I pulled up one of those quick links my daughter put on my computer.That's what I do when I'm bored at work sometimes.Lol.


lol....wait, red from laughter or somethin else? xD
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
148. washingtonian115
10:05 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:



No comment? ;-)
I've been trying to research what seasons have had 19 named storms back-to-back.So far no luck.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16679
147. sunlinepr
10:04 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting SPLbeater:
im bored again


Consider some Asian news... (new posible war scenario)

Flash-point: China issues warning to India on disputes in the South China Sea

Link

or what about some European news...

Perfect Storm the Most Likely Scenario; Is Europe Set to Declare a Chapter 11 in Early 2012?

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9780
146. Some1Has2BtheRookie
10:03 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Any thoughts?



No. I have always been told that I am pretty thoughtless.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
145. Some1Has2BtheRookie
10:01 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
AH HA!!!!!!So you all thought I was gone and returned back to blogging.I get it.When I get on everybody vanishes.But when I'm off they return.Well I'm back.



No comment? ;-)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
144. hurricanehunter27
10:00 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
Any thoughts?

Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
143. StormTracker2K
10:00 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting STLweatherjunkie:

that's just what happens when you live on a peninsula, surrounded by 70+ degree water ....


I agree but the air is usually a lot drier come November. The humidity makes a huge difference.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
142. washingtonian115
9:59 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
AH HA!!!!!!So you all thought I was gone and returned back to blogging.I get it.When I get on everybody vanishes.But when I'm off they return.Well I'm back.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16679
141. HuracanTaino
9:55 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting Articuno:

99L is a nothing.
She wAS a something not to long ago probably a full grown subtropical storm, but 'CONSERVATISM" made them, wait a little longer to name her, winds were already 45mph, and the COC well define and in many instances over the main convection. Well, another " post season resurrection" shortly? Much likely, yes.
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 850
140. Some1Has2BtheRookie
9:55 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

According to AP’s Seth Borenstein, that’s “higher than the worst case scenario outlined by climate experts just four years ago.” He’s talking about the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, which is, if anything, considered "conservative" in its projections of future catastrophe by many climate scientists. Put another way, we’re talking more greenhouse gases than have entered the Earth’s atmosphere in tens of millions of years.
Probably the most worrying quote on the article.


In other words, we are no longer asking if you want toast. We are asking, "What would like on your toast?".
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
139. WeatherNerdPR
9:50 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting hurricanejunky:
While you were sleeping...

According to AP’s Seth Borenstein, that’s “higher than the worst case scenario outlined by climate experts just four years ago.” He’s talking about the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, which is, if anything, considered "conservative" in its projections of future catastrophe by many climate scientists. Put another way, we’re talking more greenhouse gases than have entered the Earth’s atmosphere in tens of millions of years.
Probably the most worrying quote on the article.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5672
138. STLweatherjunkie
9:47 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting StormTracker2K:


32 years which is my age. It has been hot here. Temps have been in the mid 80's many days but the difference is these 65 to 75 degree dewpoints which has helped kick in the heat index.


that's just what happens when you live on a peninsula, surrounded by 70+ degree water ....
Member Since: September 9, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 1038
137. hurricanejunky
9:40 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
While you were sleeping...
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
136. washingtonian115
9:38 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting SPLbeater:


purty sure your not serious...thats an insult lol
I'm sorry I'm turning red right now.Lol.Eh no I'm not being serious.I pulled up one of those quick links my daughter put on my computer.That's what I do when I'm bored at work sometimes.Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16679
135. SPLbeater
9:34 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
This should help.Link


purty sure your not serious...thats an insult lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
134. washingtonian115
9:29 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting Dragod66:


Bedford Nova Scotia... up to a foot forcasted!
Awww man. :(.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16679
133. washingtonian115
9:24 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting SPLbeater:
im bored again
This should help.Link
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16679
132. Dragod66
9:22 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
WHERE R U???.I've been getting silly little rain that's turned now into a pest.


Bedford Nova Scotia... up to a foot forcasted!
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 612
130. StormTracker2K
9:20 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting STLweatherjunkie:

How long have you lived there. So far Orlando is .4 degrees BELOW average for the month of November ...

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=mlb

select preliminary monthly climate data to see for yourself


32 years which is my age. It has been hot here. Temps have been in the mid 80's many days but the difference is these 65 to 75 degree dewpoints which has helped kick in the heat index.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
129. Xandra
9:19 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
NASA's TRMM Satellite Sees Deadly Tornadic Thunderstorms in Southeastern U.S.

TRMM's Precipitation Radar (PR) data was used to show the line of severe thunderstorms in 3-D. The line of storms were pushing through North and South Carolina on Nov. 16, 2011. Strong updrafts had pushed precipitation within some of these storms to heights of 15km (9.3 miles). Credit: SSAI/NASA, Hal Pierce

Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
128. washingtonian115
9:17 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting Dragod66:
SNOW for tomorrow... yay!
WHERE R U???.I've been getting silly little rain that's turned now into a pest.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16679
127. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:16 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
Does anybody have a complete list of the TCR changes so far? Like, how many mph the winds were upped or lowered, how higher or lower the pressure was made for a certain storm, etc., etc.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858
126. STLweatherjunkie
9:15 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Heat induced thunderstorms across N FL. Folks it is very hot here in FL. Wishing for cooler weather here as this November is the warmest that I can remeber here in the orlando area.


How long have you lived there. So far Orlando is .4 degrees BELOW average for the month of November ...

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=mlb

select preliminary monthly climate data to see for yourself
Member Since: September 9, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 1038
125. cyclonekid
9:15 PM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Has not every EPAC system made it to at least CAT1 this season, with the exception of 1?


Exception of 3: Fernanda, TD Eight-E, and TD Twelve-E
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1727

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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