Rare late-season Eastern Pacific hurricane forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on November 21, 2011

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Tropical Storm Kenneth formed over the weekend in the Eastern Pacific, and intensified into a hurricane late this morning. We are well past the date for the usual formation of the season's last storm, since the African waves spawned by the African monsoon, which serve as low pressure "seeds" to get the atmosphere spinning and trigger formation of more than half of the Eastern Pacific's storms, are rare this time of year. Kenneth formed from some unusual wave-like motions in the atmosphere over the Eastern Pacific that were not associated with African tropical waves. Since 1949, here have been just three Eastern Pacific named storms that formed after November 18. These three storms were an unnamed tropical storm on November 27, 1951; Tropical Storm Sharon on November 27, 1971; and Hurricane Winnie on December 5, 1983. None of these storms hit land, though the 1951 storm grazed the Baja. If Kenneth grows stronger than a 90 mph hurricane, it will surpass Hurricane Winnie of 1983 as the strongest Eastern Pacific storm so late in the season. Kenneth is moving westwards out to sea, and should not be a threat to land.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Kenneth taken at 7 am EST November 21, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Atlantic's Invest 99L could become Subtropical Storm Tammy
In the Atlantic, Invest 99L, an extratropical storm in the middle Atlantic that is generating tropical storm-force winds, has the potential to transition into a subtropical storm over the next day or two. The storm currently lacks a well-defined surface circulation. If it develops one, 99L would be called Subtropical Storm Tammy. The storm is over waters of 26°C, and these waters will cool to 24°C by Tuesday, as 99L moves northeastwards out to sea. These water temperatures are near the limit of where a subtropical or tropical storm can form. The storm is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11323
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


If you have to explain the joke usually thats not a good sign ;)
Damn.I have to come up with better jokes.I think the one about Florida and Navada were the best one I've said.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not in a long time.


well...i had enjoyed reading his blogs, his and yours were very nice(with tropics, of course)
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Eh hem.Why do some hurricanes go to New england in the summer?.To beat the heat.Lol.Get it hurricanes are like big heat machines and their running away from themselfs.I should stop right here shouldn't I.


If you have to explain the joke usually thats not a good sign ;)
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Humor OK. Foot Fetish NOT.
Eh hem.Why do some hurricanes go to New england in the summer?.To beat the heat.Lol.Get it hurricanes are like big heat machines and their running away from themselfs.I should stop right here shouldn't I.
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Quoting SPLbeater:
any1 seen MississippiWX lately?
No I was wondering where he was yesterday.
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Quoting yqt1001:
Kenneth is looking well.



Amazingly, there has not been a major hurricane in the world since Jova back in early October (Rina technically never officially made it to 115mph so she doesn't count).

Kenneth is likely a Category 2 hurricane at this time.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
Quoting washingtonian115:
Adds a different tone to the blog :).And since the humorous bloggers have been long gone and banned someones gotta feel the shoe.


Humor OK. Foot Fetish NOT.
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Kenneth is looking well.



Amazingly, there has not been a major hurricane in the world since Jova back in early October (Rina technically never officially made it to 115mph so she doesn't count).
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Quoting SPLbeater:
any1 seen MississippiWX lately?

Not in a long time.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
any1 seen MississippiWX lately?
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AL992011 - INVEST

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator) Loop

..click image for Loop

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Getting close to Subtropical Storm status...I'd give it 70% or 80% at the 7PM EST TWO.

If it doesn't become frontal in nature. I think that's what the NHC is going to be the most conservative about. They've mentioned it many times before.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I can never get enough of your bad jokes wash ;)
Adds a different tone to the blog :).And since the humorous bloggers have been long gone and banned someones gotta feel the shoe.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Kennith the sennith.Ha ha.Get it?.Because he formed so late in the season and that's not usuala and...okay I'll stop torturing you all with my bad jokes.


I can never get enough of your bad jokes wash ;)
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Kennith the sennith.Ha ha.Get it?.Because he formed so late in the season and that's not usuala and...okay I'll stop torturing you all with my bad jokes.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Wow that's scary, glad to hear he's okay


Thanks, was kinda young to understand the magnitude of the situation at the time.
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Quoting Patrap:
There are now 395 Giorni Days till the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Monday.
Doom day? ;-)
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Getting close to Subtropical Storm status...I'd give it 70% or 80% at the 7PM EST TWO.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Thunderstorms trying to make it to the W Coast of FL.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
58. DDR
Good evening all
Major flooding has hit parts of north-west Trinidad for the 2nd time in 3 days,this is largely due to deforestation, poor drainage and infrastructure.
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Good Afternoon. 99L nearing Subtropical Storm status.

Forecast tracks:
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Damn that picture scared the hell out of me lol


Same here
I was like
"what the hell?"
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Damn that picture scared the hell out of me lol



My first impression was a person turned to volcanic ash, like those entombed during a lava flow
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Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
100 PM PST MON NOV 21 2011

...KENNETH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 110.6W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

no major hurricane now???
no, why would it be a major hurricane now?

edit, or did you mean the forecast no longer calls for a major hurricane? Answer is in their forecast discussion.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
no major hurricane now???


(From the discussion)

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONSISTING OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WARM WATER ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY SHOW KENNETH ATTAINING MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT COULD OCCUR
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
100 PM PST MON NOV 21 2011

...KENNETH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 110.6W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

no major hurricane now???
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting RitaEvac:
Groesbeck,TX Nearly Out of Water, Hopes to Build Pipeline

Since August, city officials in Groesbeck have known that if they couldn't stop the Navasota River, the community's sole water, from drying up, the town would be without water by Thanksgiving. After a solution devised last week failed, the city now hopes to scramble to build a new pipeline before the water runs out.

High summer temperatures and the statewide drought have caused the Navasota River to evaporate faster than it can be replenished. Last week, the city attempted to solve the problem by purchasing and pumping water from a nearby rock quarry into Jack%u2019s Creek, which feeds into the Navasota, and ultimately, into the city's water treatment plant at the end of Fort Parker Lake. The quarry water managed to get down Jack%u2019s Creek, but the effort was abandoned after the dry and thirsty bed of Fort Parker Lake absorbed most of the quarry water before it made it to the treatment plant.

Yesterday, the Groesbeck city council approved a plan to build a 3.3 mile pipeline from a more water-abundant upper region of the Navasota River to Groesbeck%u2019s water treatment plant. But building the three-mile pipeline will take time %u2014about eight days %u2014 and will be costly. The city will continue sending water from the rock quarry through Jack's Creek and into the river to avoid further depleting the Navasota, but the upper region from which Groesbeck will pump is fuller than the other bodies of water involved, especially Fort Parker Lake. If all goes according to plan, Groesbeck will pay Godwin Pumps $80,000 to build the pipeline and $35,600 per month in rent, Groesbeck Mayor Jackie Levingston said.

The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality approved the plan, but Groesbeck is still waiting on the approval of the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department. A department representative is scheduled to visit Groesbeck tomorrow morning, before construction of the pipeline begins.

"We%u2019ve done a lot of pre-clearance and don%u2019t foresee anything going wrong with the plan,%u201D Levingston said. But if the plan doesn%u2019t work, Groesbeck will resort to building a different pipeline from the quarry to the treatment plant, which is projected to take three weeks, though the city already has the necessary clearances for this option.

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If Groesbeck runs out of water before that second pipeline option is completed, it will be forced to truck water in from the rock quarry. Since water consumption in Groesbeck has dropped, a result of its dire straits, Levingston hopes the city will be able to make the current supply last longer than the initial Thanksgiving projection, especially if the second, three-week pipeline project is required.

%u201CWe%u2019ve got so many people involved with this process that things change every hour. People are coming together in such a wonderful way,%u201D said City Administrator Martha Stanton. "That%u2019s positive, and we need something positive.%u201D

Groesbeck is one of a small number of Texas communities on the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality%u2019s %u201Chigh priority%u201D water list, which identifies cities and towns that could run out of water within 180 days if the drought persists and the water infrastructure remains as it is. The Austin suburbs Leander and Cedar Park were previously on that list, but were removed when officials determined they'd been included erroneously.

Even if everything works and Groesbeck is able to pump water from the upper Navasota in just over a week, that solution is a short term fix, which engineers believe will only last four months, Levingston said. On Nov. 8, the city council approved a contract to hire an engineer from R.W. Harden who will look for water wells, which will offer a more permanent solution to the imminent vulnerability of Groesbeck%u2019s single-source surface water system.

In an article published in the Groesbeck Journal earlier today, Keith Tilley, Groesbeck director of public works, wrote that he is confident the city will find a solution before the clock runs out.

%u201CMake no mistake, the City of Groesbeck will find a solution to this crisis no matter what it takes," he said. "We may never experience another drought like this in our lifetime, but we have to be ready and assume it will. There are several other options that are not mentioned here today, but as far as I am concerned, running out of water is not on the list.%u201D

Damn that picture scared the hell out of me lol

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Strong Category 1 hurricane status...approaching Category 2 status.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


2001, just in time for my dad to be in the pentagon when it was hit...

BTW he's okay, didn't mean to send out the wrong message.
Wow that's scary, glad to hear he's okay
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
45. MTWX
Timing for Severe weather tomorrow across Mississippi.

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Oh, Aaaangellllla! I know you're out there! This Saturday @ Bobby Dodds Stadium.....
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Quoting RitaEvac:


GFS showing extremely cold air behind this system down into TX for Nov 27th-28th


I thought someone else would see that too.

On and off snow for central US. or is the cold layer too shallow/narrow aloft?
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42. Skyepony (Mod)
I've had .17" from the showers along ECFL so far..

Sadly Windsat is down again..

Oceansat had a nice pass of 99L..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38333
Kenneth up to 75 knots:

EP, 13, 2011112118, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1101W, 75, 982, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 0, 15, 1009, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KENNETH, D,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13580
There's a warm front stretched from Tampa to Cape Canaveral moving N. Maybe the reason for these pop up showers.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
NHC says LLC better defined, forecast to strengthen from 1 PM update
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Quoting Neapolitan:
40 knots? Hmmm...

AL, 99, 2011112118, , BEST, 0, 285N, 510W, 40, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 200, 0, 0, 0,


Renumber?
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
40 knots? Hmmm...

AL, 99, 2011112118, , BEST, 0, 285N, 510W, 40, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 200, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13580
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah looks like some sort of seabreeze collision may happen from Tampa Bay south along the SW FL Coastline.


Not surprising, temperatures have been running well above average with high humidity for over a week.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Not too often you see popup thunderstorms in November..


Yeah looks like some sort of seabreeze collision may happen from Tampa Bay south along the SW FL Coastline.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Not too often you see popup thunderstorms in November..
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86 with a dewpoint of 70 here in Orlando. As a result some popcorn showers and maybe a thunderstorm later.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting Patrap:
Panama City, FL Forecast

Monday Night

Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy. Low of 63F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
Tuesday

Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 81F. Winds from the SSE at 5 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 68F. Winds from the South at 5-10 mph. Chance of rain 50% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.
Wednesday

Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 79F. Winds from the WNW at 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
Wednesday Night

Clear. Low of 50F. Winds from the NW at 5 mph shifting to the NNE after midnight.
Thursday

Clear. High of 73F. Winds from the NNE at 10 mph.
Thursday Night

Clear. Low of 55F. Winds from the NE at 5 mph shifting to the SSE after midnight.
Friday

Clear. High of 70F. Winds from the South at 10 mph.
Friday Night

Partly cloudy in the evening, then overcast. Low of 54F. Winds from the ESE at 10 mph.
Saturday

Overcast. High of 72F. Winds from the SE at 15 mph.
Saturday Night

Overcast with a chance of rain in the evening and rain after midnight. Low of 54F. Winds from the North at 15 mph shifting to the WSW after midnight. Chance of rain 80% with rainfall amounts near 1.0 in. possible.
Sunday

Overcast with a chance of rain in the morning, then clear. High of 57F. Winds from the West at 20 mph.
Sunday Night

Clear. Low of 43F. Winds from the North at 15-20 mph.


Wow! a high of 57 and these number will likely trend a lot lower as we get closer and models become more in agreement.


Thanks Patrap
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
30. Skyepony (Mod)
ASCAT pass of 99L.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38333
There are now 395 Giorni Days till the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Monday.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.